i the ithe uk with across the whole of the uk with really cold and brisk northerly winds. there is a weak weather front fizzling out as it pushes southwards overnight, not as cold as last night but still a touch of frost out there where we see the clear spells and may be a bit of localised mist and fog also but not a huge problem. tomorrow, the weather front gives a few spots of rain in northern areas of northern ireland, northern wales and north—west england were further north in scotland, some winter sunshine, showers in the north by the end the date and further south had a flat front, brighter in england and wales than today, some bright spells but variable cloud. temperatures of 5—8 and windy in the northern isles put it but look at sunday, here comes the colder air across northern scotland, snow even possibly at lower levels by the end of the day and that wind picking up particular on north sea coast but still mild in the south, seven or 8 degrees. but already some

the houthis in yemen. a strike for stability or a step towards escalation? the prime minister praised the success of the mission targeting the ability of the houthis to threaten commercial cargoes in the red sea, but uk maritime trade operations said there were multiples reports of small boats approaching ships tonight. as protestors filled the streets of the yemeni capital, will this escalation serve as a warning or could the west be doing exactly what the iranian backed forces want? israel is encircled.

we'll hearfrom a human rights activist who's in yemen and the former cia director general david petraeus. the oil price jumped today on fears of a wider conflict involving disruption to energy flows out of the persian gulf — could all this upend tentative signs of turnaround in the world economy? and with the pm in ukraine trying to help shift a stalemate, israel at the international court ofjustice over south african accusations of genocide in gaza, and china threatening taiwan ahead of tomorrow's election there, assess global discord between the north and south of the globe, with a special panel. good evening. the conflict in the middle east has clearly escalated — of that there is no doubt. few were predicting three months ago that the aftermath of hamas' attack on israel would include britishjets flying from cyprus to bomb targets in aden. the overnight us—uk strikes

on the houthis were more extensive than forecast, and justified by both president biden and rishi sunak on the grounds of economics and trade. but, in seeking to clear safe passage into the suez canal for shipping from missile, drone and boat attacks, might we now be closer along the path to a wider escalation that could lead to a renewed energy shock? the geopolitics of this, and the economics are intimately entwined, and the backdrop from the hague to the red sea to taiwan and kyiv is that leading western nations are not convincing the rest of the world of their take a new world disorder. we start tonight with our diplomatic editor — mark urban — on those strikes against the houthis. having delivered an ultimatum last week, the americans knew that continued houthi attacks required a response. the afterburners were lit last night, american and british aviators went to work.

this is essentially a very, very strong shot across the bows, and if you look at the statements from both biden and the prime minister, they have essentially said they wanted to send the strongest possible message, that these attacks on international shipping could not go unpunished. today, there was a big demonstration of defiance in sana'a, the yemeni capital, and the houthi military command promised more of the same. they've won considerable support, notjust in yemen but on the arab strait more broadly and therefore this plays into their narrative. i suspect that it also willjustify them taking greater action in retaliation. we have to remember that they have experienced already about 25,000 plus air strikes that the saudi led coalition has dropped over yemen over the past nine years of the civil war and they were undeterred.

the strikes were delivered by air, four raf typhoons flying down from cyprus, joining a largely american strike force. they flew 15 aircraft from the carrier eisenhower in the red sea. there were cruise missiles too, fired from the american submarine, uss florida and other vessels. and the target, western sources say there were initially 60, including launch sites, radar and places where the houthis make drones or missiles. america and its allies hope that will signal their determination and at the same time reduce the houthi stockpile of long—range strike weapons. hundreds of these have already been fired at israel and and shipping in the red sea, so the question could rise of having to escalate to a bigger air operation. degradation would be to do something similar and ramp it up one level,

to expand the targets set to increase the degradation that the houthis would suffer. and then after that, it would be to mount some form of air polluting operation that would look very much like a no—fly zone, that would allow you to monitor the activity continuously and suppress it. but that is a very expensive operation to mount 24—7 air operations. and while the houthis will continue to attack international shipping, none of it so far israeli, they will aim to cast their action as being in support of palestinians. translation: this brutal | aggression will not dissuade yemen from its position of support for the palestinian people and the yemeni armed forces confirm the continued prevention of israeli ships or those heading to the ports of occupied palestine from navigation in the arab and red seas.

the houthis have big stocks of iranian supplied missiles and as such, they form part of iran's strategy against israel and the us. this does look like a fairly well calibrated strategy by those involved in iran's access of resistance. israel is encircled and each of those elements in that access, from hamas to the west of israel, hezbollah to the north of israel, the iran backed shia militias to the east and north—east of israel and now the houthis to the south of israel have been gradually ramping up their pressure. this looks like it is part of a planned strategy and it may well be that we've walked right into it. while houthis have volunteered to fight, the chances of america conducting ground operations are near zero. but that iranians connection also

makes it hard for president biden simply to do nothing, especially in an election year. so, a military strike designed explicitly to protect shipping lanes and economics — but could it create greater risk of another energy shock, just at the moment when the previous ukraine war shock was fading. the treasury has looked at scenarios of a 10% rise in the oil price, and a 25% rise in natural gas prices, because this region is now vitalfor supply of gas shipped in liquid form too, gas that used to come from russia. ben's here. let talks about the market reaction in the wake of air strikes, up the global oil price up 3.5% above $80 a barrel. not surprising given that round 12% of seaborne oil passes through the red sea of course, however it is worth noting that most economists don't expect the disruption to the goods trade in area to result in a big knock on to western consumer price inflation,

that might be a bit surprising considering round 30% of global container ship traffic passes through the red sea, let us explain it. this shows container shipping price, it has doubled since the end of last year from the result of those attacks on ships in the area. look at this. this shows the rates rises of this year, they are nothing in relation to that spike that you saw coming out of the pandemic there, and it is that which really fed through to the kind of inflationary shock we have been living with. so, the view of most analysts is actually the rate of inflation in the developed world is still set to continue to decline albeit this event will slow the pace of that decline and it may mean that central banks like the bank of england will find it harder to cut rates than financial markets have been expecting them to. that is if there have been situation continues but if there is escalation? that there have been situation continues but if there is escalation?— but if there is escalation? that is bi fear, but if there is escalation? that is his fear. it _ but if there is escalation? that is big fear, it turns _

but if there is escalation? that is big fear, it turns into _ but if there is escalation? that is big fear, it turns into a _ but if there is escalation? that is big fear, it turns into a regional. big fear, it turns into a regional conflagration that doesn't just affair the sea ways but the straits of hormuz this is on the other side between saudi arabia and iran, and 20 million barrels of oil a day flow through that route. that is round a fifth of global consumption, so it is vital route as you mentioned, for the supply of, and this is important for the uk at the moment, liquefied natural gas. if it got hold of the flow of oil out of — if it got hold of the flow of oil out of the strait of hormuz, we are talking _ out of the strait of hormuz, we are talking about oil prices shooting to $200. _ talking about oil prices shooting to $200, there have been several studies — $200, there have been several studies by the world bank and so on say the _ studies by the world bank and so on say the ott— studies by the world bank and so on say the oil price would go to 140. but even — say the oil price would go to 140. but even who are accustomed to commodity markets know they move by 100, 200, _ commodity markets know they move by 100, 200, % _ commodity markets know they move by 100, 200, % when you get radical

thing _ 100, 200, % when you get radical thing like — 100, 200, % when you get radical thing like that.— thing like that. that would be a route to a _ thing like that. that would be a route to a global— thing like that. that would be a route to a global energy - thing like that. that would be a route to a global energy shock| thing like that. that would be a i route to a global energy shock and push up prices at the pump. uk domestic energy bill, another big inflationary shock when we hoped we were eemergenciesing from the last one. . ~' were eemergenciesing from the last one. . ~ , ., were eemergenciesing from the last one. . ~ ,, ~ were eemergenciesing from the last one. . ~ i. ~ were eemergenciesing from the last one. . ~ ~ , one. thank you. i think we can pick this u- one. thank you. i think we can pick this up with — one. thank you. i think we can pick this up with the _ one. thank you. i think we can pick this up with the general _ one. thank you. i think we can pick this up with the general david - this up with the general david petraeus. now to discuss this further, i'mjoined by general david petraeus, former director of the central intelligence agency and former commander of us and nato forces in afghanistan. have these strikes on the houthis worked as far as you can see. i think they certainly have degraded the capabilities of the houthis to carry out more of the types of attacks that they have prosecuted, but it doesn't eliminate it. and the houthis said they will respond, they did today, not in the red sea, but in the gulf of aden. and it may be that the us and united kingdom and others will have to carry out further attacks and i think the us

is ready to do that. it took a while, you know, so i commanded the us central command the headquarters that oversaw these particular responsible for an area of the middle east. this is a substantial package, when you employ over 150 munitions against well over 60 targets at 16 different sites, this is a large activity, large operation. but it may be they will have to do it again, but it took a while to establish the baseline, the intelligence, information, of course this is not an area of which we would spend a lot of time in the past, and, having established it, having gotten a un security council real losing calling on the houthis to cease and desist, having warned them repeatedly and having had our

own ships essentially under attack, there was everyjustification for carrying out this particular at —— attack package. d0 carrying out this particular at -- attack package-— carrying out this particular at -- attack package. carrying out this particular at -- attack ackaue. ~ ., attack package. do you think, do you see sin of attack package. do you think, do you see sign of an _ attack package. do you think, do you see sign of an attempt _ attack package. do you think, do you see sign of an attempt to _ attack package. do you think, do you see sign of an attempt to modulate l see sign of an attempt to modulate the attack, to prevent and immediate escalation, confrontation with iran, directly? escalation, confrontation with iran, directl ? ~ ., directly? well, there was a good decree of directly? well, there was a good degree of precision _ directly? well, there was a good degree of precision here, - directly? well, there was a good - degree of precision here, reportedly there were no civilian casualties whatsoever, there were five yemeni soldiers killed. similar number reportedly injured, and in that sense, i think that is correct, these are not dumb bombs, they were all precision munition, some quite large, the tomahawk missiles are about 1,000lb of explosive. they did about 1,000lb of explosive. they did a considerable amount of damage, i am sure the bomb damage assessment process is not absolutely complete, they are using every form of intelligence from imagery to signals, to any other form, if they

have human intelligence they can draw on and so on, to determine how successful the attacks were in achieving the objectives set out for them and i am sure they already have other target packages worked up and ready to go up for approval, if that is require odd.— ready to go up for approval, if that is require odd. ready to go up for approval, if that is reauire odd. ., ., , ., ., is require odd. throw months ago, we wouldn't have — is require odd. throw months ago, we wouldn't have predicted, _ is require odd. throw months ago, we wouldn't have predicted, perhaps - is require odd. throw months ago, we wouldn't have predicted, perhaps you| wouldn't have predicted, perhaps you wouldn't have predicted, perhaps you wouldn't have predicted that the gaza conflict would lead to raf jets, bomb it can houthis, are we now not set off down an unpredictable and delicate path? i think we have been on a delicate and unpredictable path for some time, there is a lot of potential for the war widening although i don't necessarily think it will, if you look to the north of israel, lebanese hezbollah has been carrying out a number of attacks a day but they have been constrained, notjust in number du in how dope they go into israel, i think that reflect what is a lot of us assessed prior to this, which is that hezbollah

does not want to get into another war, such as they engaged in, such as they started in 2006, during which they were very seriously hammered, by the israeli air force in particular, and also be ground operations. flan in particular, and also be ground operationa— in particular, and also be ground operations. can i 'ust interrupt. i want to ask — operations. can ijust interrupt. i want to ask lastly, _ operations. can ijust interrupt. i want to ask lastly, if _ operations. can ijust interrupt. i want to ask lastly, if there - operations. can ijust interrupt. i want to ask lastly, if there is - operations. can ijust interrupt. i want to ask lastly, if there is a i want to ask lastly, if there is a situation where the houthis have run out of their low tech drones and missiles, and the iranians are going to resupply in some way via ships or air, do you expect the us and the united kingdom to target iranian attempts to kind of refoule the houthi machine? we have done that in the past. that has been carried out somewhat routinely, not frequently, but that has been ongoing for really a number of years and i would expect that to continue if that is the case. i think the iranians will know that

and will be on notice about that and i don't think, they certainly don't want to get into it directly with the us. they are much happier to fight to the last houthi or lebanese hezbollah member.— hezbollah member. thank you very much forjoining — hezbollah member. thank you very much forjoining us, _ hezbollah member. thank you very much forjoining us, general- hezbollah member. thank you very much forjoining us, general david| much forjoining us, general david petraeus, former chief of the cia. earlier, i spoke to radhya almutwakel, the chair of yemeni human rights organisation mwatana, who is in the yemeni capital, sana'a. when i spoke to radhya, who has previously advised the un security council, i began by asking her what it was like on the ground last night when the bombs began to fall. when we just when wejust suddenly when we just suddenly heard the explosions yesterday and it was announced it was uk and us military campaign, people, they got very frustrated, terrified, at the beginning, and then they felt very angry. did

beginning, and then they felt very an: . , y ., beginning, and then they felt very an: ., angry. did you get explosions last niuht angry. did you get explosions last night where _ angry. did you get explosions last night where you — angry. did you get explosions last night where you are _ angry. did you get explosions last night where you are in _ angry. did you get explosions last night where you are in sana'a? i angry. did you get explosions last l night where you are in sana'a? yes, the were night where you are in sana'a? yes, they were very _ night where you are in sana'a? yes, they were very clear. _ night where you are in sana'a? yes, they were very clear. what - night where you are in sana'a? yes, they were very clear. what impact l night where you are in sana'a? yes, | they were very clear. what impact or effect has it — they were very clear. what impact or effect has it had _ they were very clear. what impact or effect has it had in _ they were very clear. what impact or effect has it had in yemen? - they were very clear. what impact or effect has it had in yemen? so, - effect has it had in yemen? so, peeple felt _ effect has it had in yemen? sc, people felt terrified effect has it had in yemen? srr, people felt terrified at effect has it had in yemen? sc, people felt terrified at the beginning because it's a flashback of the very heavy war that we have had going on for nine years. the air strikes had stopped for a while until now, so it was something very terrifying, to hear the explosions again. terrifying, to hear the explosions aaain. ~ ., terrifying, to hear the explosions auain.~ . terrifying, to hear the explosions auain.. ., ., terrifying, to hear the explosions aiainr ., ., ~ again. what impact do you think these strikes _ again. what impact do you think these strikes will _ again. what impact do you think these strikes will have, - again. what impact do you think these strikes will have, how - again. what impact do you thinkl these strikes will have, how does these strikes will have, how does the us and uk striking the houthis play out? the us and uk striking the houthis -la out? , , �* .., play out? they still didn't recover from the ongoing _ play out? they still didn't recover from the ongoing war _ play out? they still didn't recover from the ongoing war is - play out? they still didn't recover from the ongoing war is still - play out? they still didn't recover| from the ongoing war is still going on. the people cannot stand or can't handle another circle of violence. it gives more popularity to houthis because they used as propaganda for them. it is not clear to us what is the real target or aim of of these

explosions are air strikes that happened yesterday, but it was clear to yemenis that nine years of war against houthis didn't make houthis weaker. at the beginning of the war, houthis were not able to send rockets inside yemen, even after nine years of war they are now sending rockets across the red sea. so what is the point of having a new circle of violence. the so what is the point of having a new circle of violence.— circle of violence. the point as exnlained _ circle of violence. the point as exnlained by _ circle of violence. the point as explained by the _ circle of violence. the point as explained by the president - circle of violence. the point as| explained by the president and circle of violence. the point as - explained by the president and prime minister was to try and stop houthis attacking ships in the red sea. it will not, it willjust give them propaganda to do more. it was clear to yemenis that nine years of against houthis in war did not make them weaker. at the beginning of the war, houthis were not able to send rockets even inside yemen, after nine years of war, they are now sending rockets across the red sea.

so what is the point of having a new circle of violence? it will give them excuses to do more and to expand their attacks. it should be a very serious piece talk in order to solve all of this. the war will not lead to any solution or protect the red sea, it will only cause more harm to civilians and civilian life in yemen in general. 50 harm to civilians and civilian life in yemen in general.— harm to civilians and civilian life in yemen in general. so the yemeni --eole in yemen in general. so the yemeni people you — in yemen in general. so the yemeni people you would — in yemen in general. so the yemeni people you would say _ in yemen in general. so the yemeni people you would say as _ in yemen in general. so the yemeni people you would say as far - in yemen in general. so the yemeni people you would say as far as - in yemen in general. so the yemeni people you would say as far as you i people you would say as far as you could see would support the houthis because they agree with the idea that it supports the people of gaza, what is being done?— that it supports the people of gaza, what is being done? people in yemen, ordinary people _ what is being done? people in yemen, ordinary people are — what is being done? people in yemen, ordinary people are not _ what is being done? people in yemen, ordinary people are not angry - ordinary people are not angry because houthis are attacking ships that are going to gaza because they believe that what is happening in gazais believe that what is happening in gaza is horrible and the war in gaza should stop and there should be a ceasefire and accountability. so they understand it in a very different way. it gives more popularity to houthis. we know

houthis are not popular inside yemen because they are committing violations are not providing services to people but this act and the answer to this act by the air strikes yesterday, it gives houthis just more popularity. if this is the aims of the air strikes yesterday, then that was achieved.— aims of the air strikes yesterday, then that was achieved. there were some hopes — then that was achieved. there were some hopes of _ then that was achieved. there were some hopes of a — then that was achieved. there were some hopes of a peace _ then that was achieved. there were some hopes of a peace deal- then that was achieved. there were some hopes of a peace deal this . some hopes of a peace deal this year, 2024, for your country, do you think that is still possible, how does what happened overnight affect that? , , , , , ., that? this is the biggest question that? this is the biggest question that people _ that? this is the biggest question that people started _ that? this is the biggest question that people started to _ that? this is the biggest question that people started to ask- that? this is the biggest question i that people started to ask yesterday because people were expecting a new phase with more political agreements that can lead to a sustainable peace. so it was very frustrating for them to start this year with new air strikes, led by the us and the uk, instead of going forward in the peace process. we hope as yemenis that this will not affect the agreement that has been discussed

through the last months in yemen. thank you very much forjoining us from sana'a. energy shocks, suez, yemen, the houthis, western air strikes — all that taken in isolation would spell significant international crisis. anything that involves the words war and suez would do that. but even this weekend there's a lot more going on, geopolitical sands shifting, in almost every continent. here to discuss all this is our panel of experts — sir mark lyall—grant, former national security advisor and uk representative at the un, astrid nordin from the lau china institute at king's college london, and nomi bar—yaacov — associate fellow at the international security programme at chatham house. so, these tensions are separate, sometimes connected but there is a bigger picture?— bigger picture? there is a bigger icture. bigger picture? there is a bigger picture- all _ bigger picture? there is a bigger picture. all these _ bigger picture? there is a bigger picture. all these tensions, - bigger picture? there is a bigger picture. all these tensions, the l picture. all these tensions, the conflicts, ukraine, the middle east, even the houthis are sort of separate issues but the danger is that they get seen, perceived as different strands of a single thread

and that thread is against the context of the erosion of the rules —based international order and a perceived conflict between western democracies and autocracies. as that perception grows, the risk is that all these conflicts will sort of merged together into a more global strategic battle and that is a very worrying concern. so. strategic battle and that is a very worrying concern.— strategic battle and that is a very worrying concern. so, naomi, how does the houthi _ worrying concern. so, naomi, how does the houthi situation - worrying concern. so, naomi, how does the houthi situation play - worrying concern. so, naomi, how does the houthi situation play intoj does the houthi situation play into what is happening in israel and gaza? i what is happening in israel and gaza? ~ , what is happening in israel and gaza? ~' , . ., what is happening in israel and gaza? ~' ., . gaza? i think they are into related. as the lady — gaza? i think they are into related. as the lady you _ gaza? i think they are into related. as the lady you just _ gaza? i think they are into related. as the lady you just interviewed . as the lady you just interviewed said. _ as the lady you just interviewed said. the — as the lady you just interviewed said, the more— as the lady you just interviewed said, the more scenes - as the lady you just interviewed said, the more scenes of- as the lady you just interviewed i said, the more scenes of shots of people _ said, the more scenes of shots of people in— said, the more scenes of shots of people in gaza _ said, the more scenes of shots of people in gaza are _ said, the more scenes of shots of people in gaza are being - said, the more scenes of shots of. people in gaza are being dislocated from their— people in gaza are being dislocated from their homes, _ people in gaza are being dislocated from their homes, some _ people in gaza are being dislocated from their homes, some people - people in gaza are being dislocated i from their homes, some people being on the _ from their homes, some people being on the verge _ from their homes, some people being on the verge of— from their homes, some people being on the verge of hunger, _ from their homes, some people being on the verge of hunger, the _ from their homes, some people being on the verge of hunger, the more - from their homes, some people being on the verge of hunger, the more it. on the verge of hunger, the more it feeds— on the verge of hunger, the more it feeds in— on the verge of hunger, the more it feeds in to — on the verge of hunger, the more it feeds in to the _ on the verge of hunger, the more it feeds in to the malaise _ on the verge of hunger, the more it feeds in to the malaise and - on the verge of hunger, the more it feeds in to the malaise and the -

on the verge of hunger, the more it. feeds in to the malaise and the more the various— feeds in to the malaise and the more the various arms _ feeds in to the malaise and the more the various arms of _ feeds in to the malaise and the more the various arms of iran _ feeds in to the malaise and the more the various arms of iran act. - feeds in to the malaise and the more the various arms of iran act. it - feeds in to the malaise and the more the various arms of iran act. it is - the various arms of iran act. it is the various arms of iran act. it is the same — the various arms of iran act. it is the same for— the various arms of iran act. it is the same for the _ the various arms of iran act. it is the same for the houthis, - the various arms of iran act. it is the same for the houthis, for. the same for the houthis, for hezbollah. _ the same for the houthis, for hezbollah, for— the same for the houthis, for hezbollah, for hamas - the same for the houthis, for- hezbollah, for hamas elsewhere, outside _ hezbollah, for hamas elsewhere, outside gaza, _ hezbollah, for hamas elsewhere, outside gaza, so— hezbollah, for hamas elsewhere, outside gaza, so i— hezbollah, for hamas elsewhere, outside gaza, so i think— hezbollah, for hamas elsewhere, outside gaza, so i think there - hezbollah, for hamas elsewhere, outside gaza, so i think there is. outside gaza, so i think there is definitely— outside gaza, so i think there is definitely a _ outside gaza, so i think there is definitely a connection - outside gaza, so i think there is definitely a connection there. i outside gaza, so i think there is. definitely a connection there. this is uuite definitely a connection there. this is quite striking _ definitely a connection there. is quite striking that amid definitely a connection there. tiiic is quite striking that amid all definitely a connection there. is quite striking that amid all of this you have south africa kind of really going for it against israel at the hague. south africa is a g20 democracy, leading democracy in africa, not doing what the g7 would have wanted them to do there and it sort of shows that the western narrative isn't being believed by emerging g20 economies? i narrative isn't being believed by emerging g20 economies? i think it is a very problematic _ emerging g20 economies? i think it is a very problematic case _ emerging g20 economies? i think it is a very problematic case in - emerging g20 economies? i think it is a very problematic case in the - is a very problematic case in the hague — is a very problematic case in the hague the _ is a very problematic case in the hague. the hearings _ is a very problematic case in the hague. the hearings yesterday i is a very problematic case in the . hague. the hearings yesterday and today— hague. the hearings yesterday and today were — hague. the hearings yesterday and today were run _ hague. the hearings yesterday and today were run provisional- hague. the hearings yesterday and . today were run provisional measures, which _ today were run provisional measures, which are _ today were run provisional measures, which are in— today were run provisional measures, which are in domestic _ today were run provisional measures, which are in domestic law— today were run provisional measures, which are in domestic law the - which are in domestic law the equivalent— which are in domestic law the equivalent of— which are in domestic law the equivalent of injunctions. - which are in domestic law the equivalent of injunctions. a l which are in domestic law the . equivalent of injunctions. a very strange — equivalent of injunctions. a very strange case, _ equivalent of injunctions. a very strange case, if— equivalent of injunctions. a very strange case, if i _ equivalent of injunctions. a very strange case, if i may— equivalent of injunctions. a very strange case, if i may say- equivalent of injunctions. a very strange case, if i may say so - equivalent of injunctions. a very- strange case, if i may say so myself and i_ strange case, if i may say so myself and i think— strange case, if i may say so myself and i think it— strange case, if i may say so myself and i think it wau— strange case, if i may say so myself and i think it will be _ and i think it will be interesting... - and i think it will be interesting... i- and i think it will be | interesting... i think and i think it will be - interesting... i think the and i think it will be _ interesting... i think the court will rule — interesting... i think the court will rule promptly _ interesting... i think the court will rule promptly on - interesting... i think the court will rule promptly on those i

interesting... i think the courtl will rule promptly on those and interesting... i think the court. will rule promptly on those and i think— will rule promptly on those and i think it _ will rule promptly on those and i think it is — will rule promptly on those and i think it is highly— will rule promptly on those and i think it is highly unlikely, - will rule promptly on those and i think it is highly unlikely, we - will rule promptly on those and i | think it is highly unlikely, we will wait for— think it is highly unlikely, we will wait for the — think it is highly unlikely, we will wait for the outcome _ think it is highly unlikely, we will wait for the outcome but - think it is highly unlikely, we will wait for the outcome but i - think it is highly unlikely, we will wait for the outcome but i think. wait for the outcome but i think there _ wait for the outcome but i think there is— wait for the outcome but i think there is consensus... _ wait for the outcome but i think there is consensus... germanyl there is consensus... germany has already— there is consensus... germany has already announced _ there is consensus... germany has already announced it _ there is consensus... germany has already announced it will— there is consensus... germany has already announced it willjoin - already announced it willjoin israel— already announced it willjoin lsrael as— already announced it willjoin lsrael as a _ already announced it willjoin israel as a third _ already announced it willjoin israel as a third party, - already announced it willjoin israel as a third party, so - already announced it willjoin israel as a third party, so as| already announced it willjoin i israel as a third party, so as you say, _ israel as a third party, so as you say, they— israel as a third party, so as you say. they are _ israel as a third party, so as you say. they are not _ israel as a third party, so as you say, they are not very— israel as a third party, so as you say, they are not very happy- say, they are not very happy elsewhere _ say, they are not very happy elsewhere-— say, they are not very happy elsewhere. �* , ., ., elsewhere. astrid, not vetoing the un resolution _ elsewhere. astrid, not vetoing the un resolution against _ elsewhere. astrid, not vetoing the un resolution against the - elsewhere. astrid, not vetoing the un resolution against the houthisl un resolution against the houthis but with quite some sabre rattling of its own this weekend ahead of the chinese election tomorrow? yes. of its own this weekend ahead of the chinese election tomorrow? yes, and i think we chinese election tomorrow? yes, and i think we have _ chinese election tomorrow? yes, and i think we have heard _ chinese election tomorrow? yes, and i think we have heard already - chinese election tomorrow? yes, and i think we have heard already about l i think we have heard already about the narrative that we are hearing in many _ the narrative that we are hearing in many parts — the narrative that we are hearing in many parts of the world about the west _ many parts of the world about the west versus the rest, versus autocracies, depending on who you are speaking to, and the chinese government capitalise on this kind of narrative. in taiwan, as well as in the _ of narrative. in taiwan, as well as in the middle east, they are spreading an idea that the us is the

worst— spreading an idea that the us is the worst intervening world leader, they are interfering in taiwan by arms sales, _ are interfering in taiwan by arms sales. arms _ are interfering in taiwan by arms sales, arms gifts as they now may be, as— sales, arms gifts as they now may be, as well— sales, arms gifts as they now may be, as well as through these visits, promises _ be, as well as through these visits, promises or— be, as well as through these visits, promises or visits after the election— promises or visits after the election and so on. whereas china can in— election and so on. whereas china can in contrast to that portray itself — can in contrast to that portray itself as— can in contrast to that portray itself as the less bellicose, less interfering world leader. and the g20 emerging — interfering world leader. and the g20 emerging economies - interfering world leader. and the g20 emerging economies are - interfering world leader. and the - g20 emerging economies are listening to that narrative and for example not listening on the ukraine— russia issue. the west has lost lots of the global south, has it not? i issue. the west has lost lots of the global south, has it not?— global south, has it not? ithink it has and i think— global south, has it not? ithink it has and i think the _ global south, has it not? ithink it has and i think the risk— global south, has it not? ithink it has and i think the risk is - global south, has it not? ithink it has and i think the risk is that - has and i think the risk is that countries like india and south africa begin to see western democracies is leading some sort of campaign which they don't want to be associated with. in turn, china sees that as an opportunity to pull them away from the post—2nd world war rules —based international order, which is so important to our

prosperity and our security. so we have a situation now where, if you remember 30 years ago, there was talk about the end of history, with the death of the soviet union, the death of communism and liberal democracy had won. actually, we are entering a phase now where for the first time since the second world war, the ultimate triumph of liberal democracy and market economy can no longer be taken for granted and that is a deep concern.— is a deep concern. talking democracies, _ is a deep concern. talking democracies, half - is a deep concern. talking democracies, half the - is a deep concern. talking . democracies, half the world's population will be having elections this year. 0bviously population will be having elections this year. obviously we are focused on america, we have the iowa caucuses on monday. i was very struck by listening to former president trump and he has this narrative now, i am going to stop world war iii. take it at face value or not but he seems to think it is going to be convincing for large swathes of the us population of this

fundamentally isolationist message. what you make of america's role in this? , ., �* ~ ., this? the thing is, we don't know. we don't know _ this? the thing is, we don't know. we don't know who _ this? the thing is, we don't know. we don't know who is _ this? the thing is, we don't know. we don't know who is going - this? the thing is, we don't know. we don't know who is going to - this? the thing is, we don't know. j we don't know who is going to win the election — we don't know who is going to win the election i_ we don't know who is going to win the election. i think— we don't know who is going to win the election. i think he _ we don't know who is going to win the election. i think he is- we don't know who is going to win the election. i think he is very- the election. i think he is very unpredictable, _ the election. i think he is very unpredictable, donald - the election. i think he is very unpredictable, donald trump. the election. i think he is very. unpredictable, donald trump. i the election. i think he is very- unpredictable, donald trump. i think we are _ unpredictable, donald trump. i think we are bracing — unpredictable, donald trump. i think we are bracing for— unpredictable, donald trump. i think we are bracing for what _ unpredictable, donald trump. i think we are bracing for what may - unpredictable, donald trump. i think we are bracing for what may happen. but i we are bracing for what may happen. but i think— we are bracing for what may happen. but i think if— we are bracing for what may happen. but i think if he _ we are bracing for what may happen. but i think if he does— we are bracing for what may happen. but i think if he does win _ we are bracing for what may happen. but i think if he does win the - but i think if he does win the election. _ but i think if he does win the election. we _ but i think if he does win the election, we may— but i think if he does win the election, we may be - but i think if he does win the election, we may be in - but i think if he does win the election, we may be in very, | but i think if he does win the - election, we may be in very, very deep _ election, we may be in very, very deep trouble _ election, we may be in very, very deep trouble. it _ election, we may be in very, very deep trouble. it is _ election, we may be in very, very deep trouble. it is a _ election, we may be in very, very deep trouble. it is a question - deep trouble. it is a question really— deep trouble. it is a question really of— deep trouble. it is a question really of how _ deep trouble. it is a question really of how to _ deep trouble. it is a question really of how to plan - deep trouble. it is a question really of how to plan for - deep trouble. it is a question really of how to plan for it, . really of how to plan for it, given hism _ really of how to plan for it, given hism vision _ really of how to plan for it, given his... vision of— really of how to plan for it, given his... vision of the _ really of how to plan for it, given his... vision of the world - really of how to plan for it, given his... vision of the world and - really of how to plan for it, given his... vision of the world and hisj his... vision of the world and his willing _ his... vision of the world and his willing to — his... vision of the world and his willing to go _ his... vision of the world and his willing to go to _ his... vision of the world and his willing to go to great _ his... vision of the world and his willing to go to great length. - his... vision of the world and his willing to go to great length. if. his... vision of the world and his. willing to go to great length. if he thinks _ willing to go to great length. if he thinks of— willing to go to great length. if he thinks of war— willing to go to great length. if he thinks of war is _ willing to go to great length. if he thinks of war is going _ willing to go to great length. if he thinks of war is going to— willing to go to great length. if he thinks of war is going to be - thinks of war is going to be attractive. _ thinks of war is going to be attractive, then _ thinks of war is going to be attractive, then the - thinks of war is going to be i attractive, then the question thinks of war is going to be - attractive, then the question is, what _ attractive, then the question is, what is — attractive, then the question is, what is the _ attractive, then the question is, what is the rest _ attractive, then the question is, what is the rest of _ attractive, then the question is, what is the rest of the - attractive, then the question is, what is the rest of the world - attractive, then the question is, i what is the rest of the world going to do— what is the rest of the world going to do about — what is the rest of the world going to do about it? _ what is the rest of the world going to do about it? i— what is the rest of the world going to do about it?— to do about it? i think that is absolutely — to do about it? i think that is absolutely true _ to do about it? i think that is absolutely true because - to do about it? i think that is absolutely true because if. to do about it? i think that is - absolutely true because if donald trump really takes america in an isolationist direction, then the west has lost its champion. the liberal democracies have lost their champion. the rules —based international order has lost its champion and that is very damaging for countries like ourselves. i would go further and say for a

british security going forward, the outcome of the american election is actually more important than the conflict even in ukraine, let alone in the middle east. but conflict even in ukraine, let alone in the middle east.— in the middle east. but the bandwidth _ in the middle east. but the bandwidth here _ in the middle east. but the bandwidth here to - in the middle east. but the bandwidth here to be - in the middle east. but the bandwidth here to be able| in the middle east. but the i bandwidth here to be able to in the middle east. but the - bandwidth here to be able to deal with these multiple crises, literally today we had the prime minister in kyiv fielding questions about what is happening in yemen. you know, you have all this low—tech but highly effective water technology being used by the houthis which can cause havoc now, you would have been able to cause havoc like that in the red sea before, is this controllable, this world? the west just can't control these type of developments?— just can't control these type of developments? certainly it can't if the west is _ developments? certainly it can't if the west is divided, _ developments? certainly it can't if the west is divided, and _ developments? certainly it can't if the west is divided, and that - developments? certainly it can't if the west is divided, and that is . developments? certainly it can't if the west is divided, and that is a . the west is divided, and that is a big risk. we are seeing all the splits within europe, splits between america and the europeans, and that is a concern. even the european union can't agree on an aid package for instance to ukraine because of

where hungary now stands. so i think if you are sitting in beijing while sitting in moscow, you are looking at the western alliance and you are saying, actually, there is a lot of weakness there, a lot of uncertainty, a lot of division and polarisation, all of these elections coming up, that gives us an opportunity to put forward this alternative narrative. instill opportunity to put forward this alternative narrative. will china take that opportunity, - alternative narrative. will china take that opportunity, what - alternative narrative. will china | take that opportunity, what they perceive to be a moment of weakness? i think it is a long game for china. it's i think it is a long game for china. it's about— i think it is a long game for china. it's about narratives, it's about hearts — it's about narratives, it's about hearts and _ it's about narratives, it's about hearts and minds, it's about chipping _ hearts and minds, it's about chipping away at norms that have existed _ chipping away at norms that have existed for a long time. ukraine is apparel— existed for a long time. ukraine is apparel to — existed for a long time. ukraine is apparel to taiwan existed for a long time. ukraine is apparelto taiwan in existed for a long time. ukraine is apparel to taiwan in terms there is apparel to taiwan in terms there is a chinese — apparel to taiwan in terms there is a chinese narrative that these are fake countries, not real nations, not really — fake countries, not real nations, not really a _ fake countries, not real nations, not really a real countries and therefore _ not really a real countries and therefore old empires can expand in new ways _ therefore old empires can expand in new wa s. . ,. . therefore old empires can expand in newwa s. . , , therefore old empires can expand in new ways-— i - therefore old empires can expand in new ways._ i think| new ways. fascinating stuff. i think china and russia _ new ways. fascinating stuff. i think china and russia will _ new ways. fascinating stuff. i think china and russia will try _ new ways. fascinating stuff. i think china and russia will try and - new ways. fascinating stuff. i think china and russia will try and fill- china and russia will try and fill in the _ china and russia will try and fill in the vacuum. _ china and russia will try and fill in the vacuum. they— china and russia will try and fill in the vacuum. they have - china and russia will try and fill in the vacuum. they have a - china and russia will try and fill- in the vacuum. they have a strategy, they want— in the vacuum. they have a strategy, they want to — in the vacuum. they have a strategy, they want to know _

in the vacuum. they have a strategy, they want to know where _ in the vacuum. they have a strategy, they want to know where they - in the vacuum. they have a strategy, they want to know where they go - in the vacuum. they have a strategy, j they want to know where they go and we know _ they want to know where they go and we know who — they want to know where they go and we know who is — they want to know where they go and we know who is in _ they want to know where they go and we know who is in power. _ they want to know where they go and we know who is in power. elections. we know who is in power. elections are coming — we know who is in power. elections are coming up— we know who is in power. elections are coming up in— we know who is in power. elections are coming up in russia _ we know who is in power. elections are coming up in russia as- we know who is in power. elections are coming up in russia as well- we know who is in power. electionsj are coming up in russia as well and ithink— are coming up in russia as well and i think we _ are coming up in russia as well and l think we all— are coming up in russia as well and i think we all know _ are coming up in russia as well and i think we all know who _ are coming up in russia as well and i think we all know who will- are coming up in russia as well and i think we all know who will be - are coming up in russia as well and i think we all know who will be the. i think we all know who will be the next president _ i think we all know who will be the next president. china _ i think we all know who will be the next president. china has- i think we all know who will be the next president. china has a - i think we all know who will be the next president. china has a very. next president. china has a very clear— next president. china has a very clear agenda _ next president. china has a very clear agenda with _ next president. china has a very clear agenda with xi. _ next president. china has a very clear agenda with xi. so - next president. china has a very clear agenda with xi. so unlike. next president. china has a very. clear agenda with xi. so unlike the us where — clear agenda with xi. so unlike the us where we — clear agenda with xi. so unlike the us where we don't _ clear agenda with xi. so unlike the us where we don't know _ clear agenda with xi. so unlike the us where we don't know where - clear agenda with xi. so unlike the. us where we don't know where they are going _ us where we don't know where they are going or— us where we don't know where they are going or the _ us where we don't know where they are going orthe eu, _ us where we don't know where they are going orthe eu, they— us where we don't know where they are going or the eu, they haven't i are going or the eu, they haven't been _ are going or the eu, they haven't been able — are going or the eu, they haven't been able to— are going or the eu, they haven't been able to agree _ are going or the eu, they haven't been able to agree on _ are going or the eu, they haven't been able to agree on the - are going or the eu, they haven't been able to agree on the aid - been able to agree on the aid package — been able to agree on the aid package for— been able to agree on the aid package for ukraine - been able to agree on the aid package for ukraine for - been able to agree on the aid | package for ukraine for years, been able to agree on the aid l package for ukraine for years, i think— package for ukraine for years, i think there _ package for ukraine for years, i think there is _ package for ukraine for years, i think there is a _ package for ukraine for years, i think there is a low _ package for ukraine for years, i think there is a low common i think there is a low common denominator— think there is a low common denominator if— think there is a low common denominator if they - think there is a low common denominator if they do - think there is a low common i denominator if they do agree. think there is a low common - denominator if they do agree. so it amounts _ denominator if they do agree. so it amounts to— denominator if they do agree. so it amounts to very _ denominator if they do agree. so it amounts to very little. _ denominator if they do agree. so it amounts to very little. so - denominator if they do agree. so it amounts to very little. so the - amounts to very little. so the question— amounts to very little. so the question really— amounts to very little. so the question really is, _ amounts to very little. so the question really is, i— amounts to very little. so the question really is, i think- amounts to very little. so the. question really is, i think there amounts to very little. so the - question really is, i think there is going _ question really is, i think there is going to — question really is, i think there is going to be — question really is, i think there is going to be a _ question really is, i think there is going to be a major— question really is, i think there is going to be a major shift. - question really is, i think there is going to be a major shift. tittie- question really is, i think there is going to be a major shift. going to be a ma'or shift. we must leave that going to be a major shift. we must leave that there, _ going to be a major shift. we must leave that there, we _ going to be a major shift. we must leave that there, we covered - going to be a major shift. we must leave that there, we covered the i leave that there, we covered the whole world in about ten minutes! thank you. that's all from us tonight. no time for the papers today. victoria's back monday. till then, have a good weekend. goodnight.