thank you forjoining us. the us 2024 presidential race kicks off on monday, when iowa republicans hold caucus meetings to pick the party's nominee. political analysts and the wider public will be particularly focused on who will lead the pack of republican challengers and what the results in iowa may suggest in the run—up to november. but it's notjust in the united states where ballots are being cast. polls are open in taiwan, where voters are choosing a new president and parliament. the economy and education are key issues for voters. but one sobering issue looms large — how taiwan should address the threat from china. it's election day in taiwan and hours ago the candidates how the last rallies before voting on the island's residential election and as we heard they are addressing the threat from china and that's one issue dominating and on the ballot is the current vice president

william lai of the ruling dpp who is vowing to strengthen the island's ties with other democracies. the opposition party candidate who usually of the kmt says he will push for more dialogue. with china. gaining traction with younger voters. rupert wingfield—hayes reports. taiwan elections are noisy, boisterous affairs. in front of the presidential building in taipei, supporters of the ruling dpp are hoping for an unprecedented third presidential term. young voters told me they want to send a message to beijing that taiwan is nothing like china. in china, you cannot stand for your rights on the street and the way to express our opinion, we can vote for president. we can have many, many different voices, no matter if you

support the government or not, but in china it can get you only one voice.— only one voice. there is nothing _ only one voice. there is nothing like _ only one voice. there is nothing like this - only one voice. there is nothing like this in - only one voice. there is i nothing like this in china. this is what sets taiwan apart does make people here are free to choose their own leaders. they are proud of their democracy but also fear it is now under threat from china like never before. across town the opposition kmt is holding its own huge rally with the party's presidential candidate saying a third term for the dpp would be a disaster that could leave the island before lead to the island to war with china and if elected he said he will open a peace dialogue with beijing. open a peace dialogue with bei'inu. ~ , ., ., ., beijing. we prefer to get along with them peacefully, - beijing. we prefer to get along with them peacefully, right? . beijing. we prefer to get along | with them peacefully, right? so our economics can be improved. yeah, that's what we want. yeah, that's what we want. yeah, we don't want our young people to be brought into the war. , , ' people to be brought into the war. , ._ , ., people to be brought into the war. , , ., ., ., war. they may differ on how to mana . e war. they may differ on how to manage the — war. they may differ on how to manage the threat _ war. they may differ on how to manage the threat from - war. they may differ on how to | manage the threat from beijing but the major parties in taiwan on one thing — neither of them

wants unification with china. rupert wingfield—hayes, bbc news in taipei. we will continue to follow the story for you through the course of the night of course but we want to go to our special coverage now. with less than three days to go until the iowa caucuses, we'll take a closer look at the first presidential contest of 202a. every four years, the us state of iowa kicks off the presidential nomination process but how does the process work? let's break it down. the caucuses are how iowa voters from both the republican and democratic parties select their presidential nominees. the process is different from how most other us states make their pick. the caucuses are run by political parties, unlike primaries, which are typically organised by each state. and while primary ballots allows voters to cast ballots early or show up throughout election day, caucuses must be attended in person at a scheduled time. this year republican voters will gather at 1900 local time on monday, january 15th.

at those state—wide meetings, iowa republican party voters will conduct party business, listen to speeches from campaign representatives and eventually pick who they want to be the party's nominee on the november ballot. unlike republicans, who will gather in person, for the first time, iowa democrats will be able to mail in their ballots. those results will be made public on march 5th. iowans will have five republican candidates to choose from on monday. they are frontrunner and former us president donald trump, former south carolina governor nikki haley, florida governor ron desantis, entrepreneur vivek ramaswamy, and former arkansas governor asa hutchinson. according to the latest suffolk university poll, mr trump holds a 34—point lead over the rest of the republican field with 54% of support among likely iowa caucusgoers. he's followed by ms haley, who sits at 20%, mr desantis with 13% and mr ramaswamy at 6%. mr hutchinson has less than a percentage point of support in iowa.

while mr trump refuses to debate his opponents, that has not kept haley and desantis from attacking him on the debate stage as they hope to gain support heading into iowa. here they are at wednesday's cnn debate. ukrainian bureaucrats. that is not true. that is such a lie. you have sunported _ that is such a lie. you have sunported all— that is such a lie. you have supported all the _ that is such a lie. you have supported all the money i that is such a lie. you have i supported all the money going over there. supported all the money going over there-— over there. that's desperate. you are so — over there. that's desperate. you are so desperate. - over there. that's desperate. you are so desperate. you i over there. that's desperate. i you are so desperate. you need someone _ you are so desperate. you need someone to _ you are so desperate. you need someone to stand _ you are so desperate. you need someone to stand and - you are so desperate. you need someone to stand and fight - you are so desperate. you need someone to stand and fight forl someone to stand and fight for you? don't look for nikki haley. don't look for nikki haley, you won't be able to find out if you have a search warrant. but every time he lies — drake university, don't turn this into a drinking game because it will be over served by the end of the night. laughter. joining me live is holly honderich who's following the caucus from iowa. the weather has been terrible so how are things going? i’m so how are things going? i'm canadian _ so how are things going? i'm canadian so _ so how are things going? i“n canadian so this feels like home for me but the snow has been going all day and is freezing and has forced all the candidates inside have all moved their events to virtual

today because no—one wants to be on the road. today because no-one wants to be on the road.— today because no-one wants to be on the road. we've heard and it uts a be on the road. we've heard and it puts a damper— be on the road. we've heard and it puts a damper the _ be on the road. we've heard and it puts a damper the entire - it puts a damper the entire event so tell us about nikki haley. you've written an article on her, she's been gaining momentum so what does it mean for her in iowa and for her rival ron desantis? figs it mean for her in iowa and for her rival ron desantis? as you said, her rival ron desantis? as you said. trump — her rival ron desantis? as you said, trump has _ her rival ron desantis? as you said, trump has a _ her rival ron desantis? as you said, trump has a definitive i said, trump has a definitive advantage and he is going through a monday but the real question is who will come in second, nikki haley or ron desantis? right now her team this past week are feeling very good, had a series of important wins in the past few weeks, big endorsement, the cash injection in the bump in the polls that put her head. she has a strong showing second or third place she thinks she will an all: trump and his true arrival and will carry the momentum to new hampshire. will carry the momentum to new hampshire-— hampshire. what are voters sa in: hampshire. what are voters saying about _ hampshire. what are voters saying about all _ hampshire. what are voters saying about all of - hampshire. what are voters saying about all of this i hampshire. what are voters saying about all of this in i saying about all of this in iowa? which way are they leading —— meaning?

iowa? which way are they leading -- meaning? most voters in iowa, republicans _ leading -- meaning? most voters in iowa, republicans at _ leading -- meaning? most voters in iowa, republicans at least, i in iowa, republicans at least, are likely to vote for the former president. the sceptics i spoke to a leaning towards nikki haley who like her tone. is much more moderate speaker and nuanced in her views compared to dissenters or trump and they see her as a freshfaced, someone to look forward to and not look back at the grievances of two or three years ago but we will see on monday how they really land criteria the weather is wreaking havoc so what will you be looking out for this weekend in iowa? ~ , in iowa? will there be event bein: in iowa? will there be event being held? _ in iowa? will there be event being held? nikki _ in iowa? will there be event being held? nikki haley- in iowa? will there be event being held? nikki haley will| in iowa? will there be event. being held? nikki haley will be back on the — being held? nikki haley will be back on the trail _ being held? nikki haley will be back on the trail tomorrow i being held? nikki haley will be back on the trail tomorrow and j back on the trail tomorrow and i think we will see how the other candidates handle the weather, it's the final scramble for them. i had an analysts say the truth is most voters have decided, it's a horrible time for candidates who realised there's nothing else to do but sit back and wait for monday night. fine else to do but sit back and wait for monday night. one more

cuestion, wait for monday night. one more question. how — wait for monday night. one more question, how are _ wait for monday night. one more question, how are the _ question, how are the candidates, nikki haley and ron desantis, talking about the frontrunner donald trump right now? ., , , ., now? ron desantis has been a little more _ now? ron desantis has been a little more bullish _ now? ron desantis has been a little more bullish i _ now? ron desantis has been a little more bullish i think- now? ron desantis has been a little more bullish i think in i little more bullish i think in his attacks for president, they do share some policy views. nikki haley has been very cautious. she will criticise donald trump but very carefully. when you favourite line is to say donald trump is the right president for the right time and she voted for him twice but rightly or wrongly chaos follows him. that's her pledge. she is trying to bring in trump voters are well and not insult or alienate them but saying we need to leave the chaos in the past and move forward to a peaceful future.— peaceful future. the bbc's holly honderich _ peaceful future. the bbc's holly honderich reporting | peaceful future. the bbc's i holly honderich reporting from iowa. thank you. joining me live now, both in iowa sticking out the cold, are new york times political reporter maya king and semafor political reporter, shelby talcott. good to see you both and thank you forjoining us in good to see you are indoors because it looks little outdoors at the moment but i want to start with

you, maya. how disruptive has this been to this critical weekend ahead of the caucus? when you think about what is required during a caucus, the engaging with voters and going out into the field and having these conversations about policies but also getting folks out to caucus for you and getting them to tell others, the weather has really disrupted that. it's just blizzard —like conditions here in iowa today across the state and it's caused a lot of problems for voters to be able to go to events and also for candidates like nikki haley and ron desantis specifically who really have needed to make up ground and tried to close this massive gap between themselves and former president donald trump and that'sjust and former president donald trump and that's just requiring them to talk to voters, you know, nikki haley had several tele— town halls today, governor desantis had a number of events where he talked to

volunteers but also had to scale them down also and it's caused a lot of problems in this critical stretch of campaign time and also given them some things to look forward to in terms of clues if people will turn out in these same numbers that we once expected on monday.- same numbers that we once expected on monday. shall be, to ou, expected on monday. shall be, to you. we've _ expected on monday. shall be, to you, we've heard _ expected on monday. shall be, to you, we've heard of - expected on monday. shall be, to you, we've heard of this i to you, we've heard of this thought that if the turnout is low on monday, it could help donald trump —— shelby. do you think that's the case? it’s donald trump -- shelby. do you think that's the case?— think that's the case? it's an 0 en think that's the case? it's an open question _ think that's the case? it's an open question and _ think that's the case? it's an open question and i - think that's the case? it's an open question and i will- think that's the case? it's an open question and i will say| open question and i will say when — open question and i will say when i _ open question and i will say when i speak to each campaign they— when i speak to each campaign they are — when i speak to each campaign they are arguing that lower turnout _ they are arguing that lower turnout will help them. ron desantis of a team in particular have noted they have an expansive ground operation here _ an expansive ground operation here in— an expansive ground operation here in iowa for months and that's— here in iowa for months and that's ultimately going to help him _ that's ultimately going to help him at — that's ultimately going to help him. at the same time, we've seen— him. at the same time, we've seen donald trump is ahead by a vast margin in all of these notes _ vast margin in all of these poles and his team argues that his voter— poles and his team argues that his voter base is just poles and his team argues that his voter base isjust more excited _ his voter base isjust more excited and has been with him

for longer and so, they will turn — for longer and so, they will turn out _ for longer and so, they will turn out no matter what. they say the — turn out no matter what. they say the big rally that he has done — say the big rally that he has done. but this weather has even affected — done. but this weather has even affected donald trump who is now doing a number of tele— rallies— now doing a number of tele— rallies this weekend instead of his in—person rallies. he is still— his in—person rallies. he is still scheduled to do one in—person on sunday but the entire — in—person on sunday but the entire presidential field has been — entire presidential field has been affect by this and certainly, all of the campaigns expect— certainly, all of the campaigns expect that turnout is going to be a _ expect that turnout is going to be a little bit lower.— be a little bit lower. coming back to you. _ be a little bit lower. coming back to you, maya, - be a little bit lower. coming back to you, maya, haley i be a little bit lower. coming i back to you, maya, haley and desantis, looking at the numbers now, they are clearly running for second place and we heard our correspondent to say that. but desantis has been running a strong ground game for weeks, running a strong ground game forweeks, really running a strong ground game for weeks, really pounding the roads and making sure his team talks to as many voters in iowa as possible. do you think he has an opportunity to cut into donald trump of my big lead? —— donald trump of my big lead? —— donald trump's. i donald trump of my big lead? -- donald trump's.— donald trump's. i think that's what his team _ donald trump's. i think that's what his team are _ donald trump's. i think that's what his team are hoping i donald trump's. i think that's what his team are hoping for. government because dissenters has talked about criss—crossing the state and has really staked

a lot of his campaign's success nationally on its success and the momentum that it generates here in iowa —— governor desantis. when you talk to voters here in iowa, particularly those who are interested in desantis, many of them are not exactly locked in and very enthusiastic about his campaign necessarily. there are certainly some people on the ground in grassroots leaders at the campaign that have enlisted to try to get more enthusiasm but it's not clear right now. it's certainly not a guarantee that he would cut into any real gains of former president trump but haley on the ground has had a fair amount but haley on the ground has had a fairamount of but haley on the ground has had a fair amount of momentum from folks, especially after new jersey governor chris christie, a very outspoken trump critic, dropped out earlier this week. there was the expectation from the haley campaign that that would actually help her, especially among voters,

republican voters, who are very staunchly anti— trump. i have not heard that same argument from the desantis campaign. i want to get your thoughts on the same question, shelby, these two candidates in particular cutting into the big lead for donald trump? i think it's auoin lead for donald trump? i think it's going to — lead for donald trump? i think it's going to be _ lead for donald trump? i think it's going to be really - it's going to be really difficult. donald trump has a huge — difficult. donald trump has a huge leap here and a huge base here _ huge leap here and a huge base here and — huge leap here and a huge base here and ron desantis popping team _ here and ron desantis popping team have argued poles are wrong, _ team have argued poles are wrong, just wait and see. at the same _ wrong, just wait and see. at the same time, i will note desantis historically has said in the — desantis historically has said in the past he is going to win iowa — in the past he is going to win iowa so _ in the past he is going to win iowa so the opposing campaigns have _ iowa so the opposing campaigns have argued that's the bow that he has — have argued that's the bow that he has set for himself and anything lower than winning iowa — anything lower than winning iowa is _ anything lower than winning iowa is going to be a disappointment. nikki haley's team — disappointment. nikki haley's team has been more vague in her expectations. theyjust want a solid _ expectations. theyjust want a solid showing, whatever that means — solid showing, whatever that means for them. we're sure. solid showing, whatever that means forthem. we're sure. if they— means forthem. we're sure. if they can — means forthem. we're sure. if they can get into second place in particular they believe that will boost them into new hampshire, where she is really gaining — hampshire, where she is really gaining ground. so, this iowa

caucus— gaining ground. so, this iowa caucus is— gaining ground. so, this iowa caucus is almost a little bit different than past elections because it seems like the real fight — because it seems like the real fight is — because it seems like the real fight is now in new hampshire. following up on that, and coming back to you, maya, we've seen the desantis campaign saying he will skip new hampshire and go straight to south carolina. what do you make of that? he south carolina. what do you make of that?— make of that? he will be in south carolina _ make of that? he will be in south carolina for- make of that? he will be in south carolina for a - make of that? he will be in south carolina for a night l make of that? he will be in i south carolina for a night and go south carolina for a night and 9° up south carolina for a night and go up to new hampshire, according to reporting from my colleagues and what we've been able to understand, but this directly translates to a calculation of his campaign that they need to take the fight directly to their most immediate rivals. nikki haley is the former governor of south carolina and has banked a lot of her success in this primary. their calculus has been a really strong showing in new hampshire, is where she planned to spend a lot of her time, and of course counting on some of the built—in support in south carolina. i think the desantis campaign, by going to south carolina and having an event and starting the process again of campaigning there and sort

of campaigning there and sort of cutting into her built—in support in her home state, they feel and believe they can start the process perhaps of trying to get a little bit further down the road, especially, excuse me, firmer down the road and the primary, especially if he does not perform to the expectations here in iowa on monday. expectations here in iowa on monda. ., , expectations here in iowa on monda. ., monday. really good to get both of our monday. really good to get both of your takes _ monday. really good to get both of your takes tonight _ monday. really good to get both of your takes tonight from i of your takes tonight from iowa. stay warm and have a really good weekend and looking forward to seeing your reporting on monday. many observers are wondering how iowa's demographics will influence caucus voting. the state is 89% white, according to the 2020 census — compared to 71% across the us as a whole. just under 50% of the population are female, slightly less than among the national population. about a1% of iowa adults indentify as republicans while about 77% are christian. of those 30% are mainline protestant, while 28% identify

as evangelical protestant. let's talk more about the motors and the candidates. —— voters. joining me live is peter hanson, associate professor of political science at grinnell college in iowa. he's also the director of the grinnell college national poll, and brad todd is a republican strategist with 0nmessage. good to have you both with us tonight. brad, iwant good to have you both with us tonight. brad, i want to start with you. we saw the final debate between nikki haley and ron desantis earlier this week. who do you think came out of that stronger?— that stronger? first off it was a substantive _ that stronger? first off it was a substantive debate. - that stronger? first off it was a substantive debate. you i that stronger? first off it was | a substantive debate. you saw two people with a pretty broad and deep grasp of policy. generally it is agreed nikki haley is probably bearing the best overall through the debates, and i think getting 50% of the time helped her as well. it was probably one of ron desantis's better debates. ron desa ntis's better debates. the ron desantis's better debates. the stage was larger, he disappeared a few times but in a 2—person debate he held his own.

a 2-person debate he held his own. �* ., ., own. and peter, i want to dig into the voters _ own. and peter, i want to dig into the voters a _ own. and peter, i want to dig into the voters a little - own. and peter, i want to dig into the voters a little bit i own. and peter, i want to dig into the voters a little bit in l into the voters a little bit in iowa. you have a unique insight into the voting patterns. donald trump is still far and away the favourite. what makes him so popular in iowa among voters there? i think iowa is a good reflection of today's republican party. iowa is a state that is largely rural, there are large numbers of white voters in the state and it looks a lot like the republican coalition. it is a state that... in which donald trump has always done well. going back to 2016 he won iowa after it had voted for barack 0bama twice. i really think iowa today is at the heart of the republican coalition. to follow up — the republican coalition. to follow up on that, peter, what issues are driving voters there the most? it issues are driving voters there the most?— the most? it is an interesting race. i don't _ the most? it is an interesting race. i don't really _ the most? it is an interesting race. i don't really think- the most? it is an interesting race. i don't really think of i race. i don't really think of it as an issue —based race.

donald trump is fundamentally an antiestablishment candidate. he has a populist candidate, he runs against elites, he runs against immigration and he has the slogan "mate —— make america great again". it is a call to return to tradition, to an america of the past. and that really resonates here in iowa. this is a state which in a lot of respects looks like the america of the past. 0ur population looks like that. it is also a state where rural communities are struggling, weather has been a lot ofjob loss and so i think those core messages from him really resonate. you don't hear people talking about particular issues as much as sort of those core themes we hear from trump again and again. themes we hear from trump again and aain. ., , ., and again. personality and identity certainly. - and again. personality and identity certainly. brad, i identity certainly. brad, coming back to you. given the whole donald trump has on this race in iowa, in all of the races at this point, where does that leave nikki haley and ron desantis? what would success look like for them coming out

of iowa? i look like for them coming out of iowa? ., , of iowa? i think the trump campaign- _ of iowa? i think the trump campaign. has _ of iowa? i think the trump campaign. has always i of iowa? i think the trump campaign. has always felt| of iowa? i think the trump i campaign. has always felt that iowa _ campaign. has always felt that iowa was — campaign. has always felt that iowa was perhaps the place where _ iowa was perhaps the place where they were the most vulnerable. it is a very conservative state, and donald trump — conservative state, and donald trump is — conservative state, and donald trump is not uniformly conservative. he has more populist _ conservative. he has more populist tendencies and populism and conservatism are fusing — populism and conservatism are fusing but he is not an ideologue. ron desantis has run to his _ ideologue. ron desantis has run to his right as a more conservative candidate. this is a caucus— conservative candidate. this is a caucus and not a primary, so citizens— a caucus and not a primary, so citizens come out of their local— citizens come out of their local public library, sit around _ local public library, sit around and talk politics for an hour— around and talk politics for an hour before they vote. so that is conducive to an ideological campaign like ron desantis. if ron desantis cannot beat donald trump _ ron desantis cannot beat donald trump in — ron desantis cannot beat donald trump in iowa there is a real question— trump in iowa there is a real question about whether he can beat _ question about whether he can beat him — question about whether he can beat him anywhere. when the race _ beat him anywhere. when the race moved to new hampshire, independents can vote and it is a primary— independents can vote and it is a primary and the primary has many— a primary and the primary has many independents as republicans in some years. nikki — republicans in some years. nikki haley appeals to those independents and is probably our best— independents and is probably our best shot. the test here in iowa _ our best shot. the test here in iowa it— our best shot. the test here in iowa it will— our best shot. the test here in

iowa it will be, can ron desantis get close to trump at all. �* ., desantis get close to trump at all. r ., ., ., desantis get close to trump at all. �* ., ., ., , ., desantis get close to trump at all. �* ., ., ., ., all. and to follow up on that, brad, if nikki _ all. and to follow up on that, brad, if nikki haley - all. and to follow up on that, brad, if nikki haley were i all. and to follow up on that, brad, if nikki haley were to l brad, if nikki haley were to perform better than expected in iowa and then moves on to new hampshire, is there a pathway to victory for her there, to really win this nomination and take it away from donald trump? pathway to victory is a big statement at this point given trump's _ statement at this point given trump's advantage in the polls, but american presidential contests tend to be very dynamic. there is a boomerang effect, — dynamic. there is a boomerang effect, success in one state, you — effect, success in one state, you do — effect, success in one state, you do not _ effect, success in one state, you do not get arithmetic success— you do not get arithmetic success the next week, you get geometric— success the next week, you get geometric success in the contest _ geometric success in the contest. and because they are sequenced out over several contests _ sequenced out over several contests in several months there — contests in several months there is— contests in several months there is a _ contests in several months there is a chance to build momentum. in momentum, other than— momentum. in momentum, other than inihal— momentum. in momentum, other than initial positioning is the most — than initial positioning is the most important thing in american residential contests. an early— american residential contests. an early victory good changes contest — an early victory good changes contest fundamentally. but if donald — contest fundamentally. but if donald trump wins big in iowa, gets— donald trump wins big in iowa, gets over— donald trump wins big in iowa, gets over 50% and if he wins new— gets over 50% and if he wins new hampshire, and he will go to south— new hampshire, and he will go to south carolina where he is very— to south carolina where he is very strong. even though it is nikki — very strong. even though it is nikki haley's home state. peter, _ nikki haley's home state.

peter, the iowa caucus hasn't picked the republican nominee for more than 20 years. why do you think that is?— you think that is? well... i think some _ you think that is? well... i think some of _ you think that is? well... i think some of the - you think that is? well... i think some of the points i you think that is? well... i i think some of the points brad just made a good. iowa has traditionally been a place where the christian conservatives are very strong, and so you have seen iowa voting for people like mike huckerby or rick santorum. but today's iowa is changing. they have been endorsements from evangelical leaders are ron desantis, governor reynolds desa ntis, governor reynolds endorsed desantis, governor reynolds endorsed ron desantis and it just doesn't seem to be sticking. i see iowa taking a populist turn and donald trump is the populist candidate. so my guess is that the state will vote very strongly for donald trump on monday, and i agree that he has a very good chance of going on to win the nomination. it of going on to win the nomination.— of going on to win the nomination. it has been a fascinating _ nomination. it has been a | fascinating conversation... crosstalk.— fascinating conversation... crosstalk. �* ., , crosstalk. brad, please. one thing iowa _ crosstalk. brad, please. one thing iowa does _ crosstalk. brad, please. one thing iowa does do _ crosstalk. brad, please. one thing iowa does do is _ crosstalk. brad, please. one thing iowa does do is they i crosstalk. brad, please. one thing iowa does do is they say. thing iowa does do is they say

they— thing iowa does do is they say they don't produce a winner but they don't produce a winner but the winner_ they don't produce a winner but the winner of iowa always makes a final— the winner of iowa always makes a final to — the winner of iowa always makes a final to win the nomination process, _ a final to win the nomination process, no matter how many candidates we start with. so winning _ candidates we start with. so winning iowa is the single most important — winning iowa is the single most important thing a person can do and finishing second in iowa is the second most important thing a candidate for president can do. , ., �* a candidate for president can do. , ., do. they don't always pick the winner but _ do. they don't always pick the winner but they _ do. they don't always pick the winner but they come - do. they don't always pick the winner but they come close. l winner but they come close. thank you to you both. while political analysts will closely watch what happens in iowa, it's worth asking: how accurate are the caucuses at predicting the eventual presidential nominee? well, since 1976, only 11 of 19 iowa caucus winners have gone on to secure their party's nomination. brad was talking about this. among them only three went on to win the us presidency. in recent history, presidentjoe biden lost the iowa caucus to his now—transportation secretary pete buttigieg in 2020, but won his presidential race. and the current republican frontrunner donald trump both lost the 2016 caucus, and won the 2020 caucus to then lose the presidency

that same year. so anything is possible. let's talk about the weather again. blizzards and bone—chilling temperatures are making the last few days of campaigning in iowa very challenging. the national weather service predicts the coldest caucus night in modern history — monday's high temperature is expected to be —3 fahrenheit, that's 49.4 celsius. our reporter bernd debusmann is in des moines in iowa with the latest. let's go to him that we have been speaking to him through the course of the evening on that record—breaking cold weather. if you can hear us, i'm sorry we made you go outside once again, i understand it is freezing. how have things been there this evening, is it getting worse? it has been getting worse. we are now at about 13 below zero and wind had been picking up which has made driving very difficult. the roads are very slick, i drove this morning and even then we were at nearly

whiteout conditions the wind has picked up, it has prompted the candidates to cancel events and the national weather service has now warned they will be potentially life—threatening conditions. they have also said frostbite could kick in on exposed skin in as little as ten minutes. so it has put a damper on the campaign trailas we it has put a damper on the campaign trail as we go into the caucuses next week. however candidates _ the caucuses next week. however candidates dealing _ the caucuses next week. however candidates dealing with _ the caucuses next week. however candidates dealing with this, - candidates dealing with this, what are they doing about all the events they had planned for this weekend, leading up to monday? this weekend, leading up to monda ? ~ , ., monday? well... many of the events today _ monday? well... many of the events today and _ monday? well... many of the events today and some - monday? well... many of the - events today and some tomorrow have been cancelled in lieu of teleconferences. nikki haley for example had telephoned town halls, she called them. some of them are still going on over them are still going on over the weekend as far as we know so far, but they really have had to adjust their schedule which makes it very difficult in the last few days as they make the last minute pitch to voters. this is not what they wanted, it has made things very complicated for the campaign in terms of reaching voters, many

of whom don't want to be out here in the wind and snow. ml here in the wind and snow. all riaht, here in the wind and snow. all right, we hope you stay safe as we have said, it is blizzard conditions there in iowa, expecting the coldest caucus ever on monday night. our reporter bernd debusmann in the centre of it all there in des moines, thank you forjoining us. and thank you for watching bbc news, stay with us. hello there. a few wintry scenes captured by our weather watchers on friday across parts of scotland, such as here in perth and kinross. but the severe frost will become a lot more widespread as we go into the start of next week, with the potential for some disruptive snow, too. where is that colder air? well, it's behind this series of weather fronts. across northern scotland on sunday, that chilly airjust spilling down from the arctic as we head through the start of next week across the whole of the uk, with brisk and cold northerly winds blowing. so, lots of added wind chill to

factor into the temperatures. but this is how we start off the day on saturday, with temperatures hovering just above freezing, a few pockets of air frost where we see the clear spells, a week weather front sinking southwards, bringing outbreaks of patchy rain into northern areas of northern ireland, north west england and north wales. to the north of the front across scotland, some winter sunshine, showers by the end of the day in the north ahead of the front across england and wales, variable amounts of cloud, but also some brighter spells, temperatures ranging between 5—8 degrees celsius. and it's more of the same, too, on saturday night into sunday morning. there will be some clear skies around at times. we'll start to see the northerly wind pick up, brisk across the northern isles with some snow showers for the north of scotland. but again, to start the day on sunday, most of our temperatures will be slightly above freezing. but then that colder air really starts to show its hand with some snow showers even to low levels across northern scotland, with this feature just running down towards the north, further south as we head throughout the day. but we've still got the milder air with some winter sunshine across england and wales,

7—8 degrees celsius here. but on sunday night into monday, there is the risk of some snow and ice, with weather warnings in place across northern ireland and the north of scotland. that wind starts to really pick up — look at the squeeze on the isobars on monday into tuesday — so wintry showers towards north sea—facing coasts with this feature running across northern ireland into southern scotland and perhaps northern england. so, here, the snow risk will extend further southwards through the day on tuesday. and then we look to the southwest to see this weather frontjust moving its way further northwards. there is the possibility that as it bumps into the colder air, we could possibly see some snow across the south of england on wednesday, but it's still very uncertain, so my advice would be to keep an eye on the forecast. it will certainly be cold. there is the greater risk of some snow with some severe frosts by night.

voice-over: this is bbc news. we'll have the headlines for you at the top of the hour, which is straight after this programme. # rocketman! # and i think it's gonna be a long, long time...

# and i think it's gonna be a long, long time. elton, lovely to see you. lovely to talk to you. congratulations on the book — i've thoroughly enjoyed it. there's something that's not in it. i came to watford with leicester city a long time ago, around �*79—80, and one of our players got a terrible gash in his leg and was carried off and had to have stitches in the dressing room and you went down to comfort him. do you have any memory of that? i don't. that was me. really? i don't. that was me. it was you? it was me. and you came down in the second half to see if i was all right, and that's something that's always stuck with me. and it was a very special moment, yeah. you've got the book, watford forever. why now? why are you doing that book now? i was approached byjohn preston, who wrote the book,

and said, "it's a really interesting subject"