when iowa republicans hold caucus meetings to pick the party's nominee. political analysts and the wider public will be particularly focused on who will lead the pack of republican challengers, and what the results in iowa may suggest in the run—up to november. but it's notjust in the united states where ballots are being counted. polls are open in taiwan, where voters are choosing a new president and parliament. the economy and education are key issues for voters. but one sobering issue looms large: how taiwan should address the threat from china. steve bbc presenter steve lai is in taipei and wasjoined earlier by celia hatton, bbc news�* asia—pacific regional editor. coup china's view on this election — how would you sump it up? election - how would you sump it u? ~ , election - how would you sump itu? it up? well, china's unhappy that these — it up? well, china's unhappy that these elections - it up? well, china's unhappy that these elections are - it up? well, china's unhappy i that these elections are taking place — that these elections are taking place at — that these elections are taking place at all. they view this government on this island of taiwan— government on this island of taiwan as _ government on this island of taiwan as being illegitimate because they believe this territory belongs to beijing.

but when it comes to the election_ but when it comes to the election itself, beijing does have — election itself, beijing does have a preferred winner. they would — have a preferred winner. they would hope the kmt nationalist party _ would hope the kmt nationalist party take the presidency and the parliament, because the kmt typically— the parliament, because the kmt typically has a more pro—china stanca — typically has a more pro—china stance. they advocate more dialogue, and they accept the one china policy — this idea that— one china policy — this idea that taiwan is a part of china. so that taiwan is a part of china. 50 china _ that taiwan is a part of china. so china has a preferred winnen _ so china has a preferred winner. they're really hoping that— winner. they're really hoping that the _ winner. they're really hoping that the current ruling party doesn't _ that the current ruling party doesn't get an unprecedented third — doesn't get an unprecedented third term. doesn't get an unprecedented third term-— third term. that the ruling .a l third term. that the ruling party. the _ third term. that the ruling party, the democratic - third term. that the ruling l party, the democratic party, has ruled for the last eight years. unprecedented if they were to win again. we'll see how it plays out later today. it's notjust china and the us that has interest in taiwan, but regional players? that's ri . ht, but regional players? that's right. this — but regional players? that's right, this eselection - but regional players? that's right, this eselection being | right, this eselection being watched by so many countries — japan, — watched by so many countries — japan, south korea, australia — very— japan, south korea, australia — very close — japan, south korea, australia — very close us allies — have always _ very close us allies — have always signalled their intent to try— always signalled their intent to try to— always signalled their intent to try to support taiwan. of course, _ to try to support taiwan. of course, taiwan is a very

important democracy in the region _ important democracy in the region. it's a young democracy. and it's — region. it's a young democracy. and it's the _ region. it's a young democracy. and it's the world's only chinese—speaking democracy. so there _ chinese—speaking democracy. so there are — chinese—speaking democracy. so there are a — chinese—speaking democracy. so there are a lot of countries, fellow— there are a lot of countries, fellow democracies, that want to support the elections here. you're — to support the elections here. you're right. frankly, though, this— you're right. frankly, though, this is— you're right. frankly, though, this is arr _ you're right. frankly, though, this is an election that taiwan, _ this is an election that taiwan, as a country — a place that— taiwan, as a country — a place that is— taiwan, as a country — a place that is being very closely watched because of its semiconductor industry. it makes _ semiconductor industry. it makes many of the chips that we use irr— makes many of the chips that we use in cars. _ makes many of the chips that we use in cars, in medical equipment, in our phones. and so, really. _ equipment, in our phones. and so, really, the future of taiwan— so, really, the future of taiwan - _ so, really, the future of taiwan — its semiconductor industry— taiwan — its semiconductor industry - _ taiwan — its semiconductor industry — is very, very important. and that's why the outcome _ important. and that's why the outcome of this election is so important. outcome of this election is so important-— outcome of this election is so important. and because of all that interest _ important. and because of all that interest from _ important. and because of all that interest from around - important. and because of all that interest from around the | that interest from around the region — from the us and china — that means that having a vested interest doesn't mean they're sitting on the sidelines and watching to see where the chips fall, but actively having a role in nudging, perhaps, different outcomes, perhaps? how would you explain what china's doing on that front when it comes to trying to get the desired outcome that it wants? it’s

outcome that it wants? it's been doing _ outcome that it wants? it's been doing so _ outcome that it wants? it's been doing so many things. i mentioned the military exercises — we've been seeing repeated — exercises — we've been seeing repeated incursions in the skies _ repeated incursions in the skies. we've seen a lot of activity— skies. we've seen a lot of activity in _ skies. we've seen a lot of activity in the taiwan strait. of course, we've been seeing haiioons _ of course, we've been seeing balloons floating over taiwan. there — balloons floating over taiwan. there was concern at one point that— there was concern at one point that these _ there was concern at one point that these were spy balloons. those — that these were spy balloons. those have been confirmed to be weather — those have been confirmed to be weather surveillance balloons. but there's no mistake that those — but there's no mistake that those are being let loose over taiwan~ — those are being let loose over taiwan. now, we're also seeing some _ taiwan. now, we're also seeing some cultural pressures too. we have _ some cultural pressures too. we have to — some cultural pressures too. we have to look back to the taiwanese rock band mayday as one example. they were being accused — one example. they were being accused of lip—syncing in china _ accused of lip—syncing in china. that's against the law in china _ china. that's against the law in china it _ china. that's against the law in china. it later turns out that— in china. it later turns out that they— in china. it later turns out that they were coming under pressure _ that they were coming under pressure to try to reaffirm beijing's principles towards taiwan, _ beijing's principles towards taiwan, and they apparently had been _ taiwan, and they apparently had been resisting those pressures. so beijing has really been kind of trying — so beijing has really been kind of trying to influence this election on all fronts. that's something that people in taiwan are very. — something that people in taiwan are very, very conscious of. there's— are very, very conscious of. there's a _ are very, very conscious of. there's a lot of talk here about _ there's a lot of talk here about how beijing has been trying — about how beijing has been trying to sway this election in either— trying to sway this election in either direction.—

trying to sway this election in either direction. yes. so much at -la . either direction. yes. so much at play- 50 _ either direction. yes. so much at play. so much _ either direction. yes. so much at play. so much at _ either direction. yes. so much at play. so much at stake. - either direction. yes. so muchj at play. so much at stake. not just for the people of taiwan, but the broader region and international players as well. we'll be keeping a close eye on it here throughout the day. thank you very much forjoining me. back to you. with less than three days to go until the iowa caucuses — we'll take a closer look at the first presidential contest of 202a. every four years, the us state of iowa kicks off the presidential nomination process, but how does the process work? let's break it down for you. the caucuses are how iowa voters from both the republican and democratic parties select their presidential nominees. the process is different from how most other us states make their pick. the caucuses are run by political parties, unlike primaries, which are typically organised by each state. and while primary ballots allows voters to cast ballots early or show up throughout election day, caucuses must be attended in person, at a scheduled time. this year, republican voters

will gather at 1900 local time on monday, january 15, 7:00pm. at those state—wide meetings, iowa republican party voters will conduct party business, listen to speeches from campaign representatives, and eventually pick who they want to be the party's nominee on the november. nominee on the november ballot. unlike republicans who will gather in—person, for the first time, iowa democrats will be able to mail in their ballots. those results will be made public on march fifth. iowans will have five republican candidates to choose from on monday... they are: frontrunner and former us president donald trump, former south carolina governor nikki haley, florida governor ron desantis, entrepreneur vivek ramaswamy, and former arkansas governor asa hutcinson. and former arkansas governor asa hutchinson. according to the latest suffolk university poll, mr trump holds a 34—point lead over the rest of the republican field with 54% of support among likely iowa caucus—goers. he's followed by ms haley who sits at 20%, mr desantis with 13%, and mr ramaswamy at 6%. mr hutchinson has less than i% of support in iowa. mr trump refuses to debate his opponents, leaving haley

and desantis to attack each other onstage as they hope to gain support heading into iowa. here they are at wednesday's cnn. bureaucrats. .. that's not true. that's such — bureaucrats. .. that's not true. that's such a _ bureaucrats. .. that's not true. that's such a lie. _ bureaucrats. .. that's not true. that's such a lie. that - bureaucrats. .. that's not true. that's such a lie. that is - that's such a lie. that is wrong- _ that's such a lie. that is wrong. you've _ that's such a lie. that is| wrong. you've supported that's such a lie. that is - wrong. you've supported all that money going over there. you're so desperate. brute that money going over there. you're so desperate. we have to gippsaero _ you're so desperate. we have to gippsaero gab _ you're so desperate. we have to gippsaero gab governor - you're so desperate. we have to gippsaero gab governor haley, | gippsaero gab governor haley, let her speak- _ gippsaero gab governor haley, let her speak. you _ gippsaero gab governor haley, let her speak. you need - gippsaero gab governor haley, l let her speak. you need someone to stand in _ let her speak. you need someone to stand in and _ let her speak. you need someone to stand in and fight _ let her speak. you need someone to stand in and fight for _ let her speak. you need someone to stand in and fight for you, - to stand in and fight for you, don't look for nikki haley. you couldn't find her with a search warrant. �* , ., ., warrant. don't turn this into a drinkin: warrant. don't turn this into a drinking game. _ warrant. don't turn this into a drinking game, drake - drinking game, drake university. earlier i spoke to holly honderich, a bbc senior reporter in iowa. the weather has been terrible — so how are things going? i'm canadian so this feels like home for me but the snow has been going all day and it's freezing and has forced all the candidates

inside — they have all moved their events to virtuals today because no—one wants to be on the road. we've heard and it puts a damper the entire event so tell us about nikki haley. she's been gaining momentum so what does it mean for her in iowa and for her rival ron desantis? as you said, trump has definitive advantage and he is going through a monday but the real question is who will come in second, nikki haley or ron desantis? right now her team this past week are feeling very good, had a series of important wins in the past few weeks, big endorsement, the cash injection in the bump in the polls that put her head. she has a strong showing second or third place she thinks she will be trump and his true arrival and will carry the momentum to new hampshire. what are voters saying about all of this in iowa?

which way are they leaning at this point? most voters in iowa, republicans at least, are likely to vote for the former president. the sceptics i spoke to a leaning towards nikki haley who like her tone. she's a much more moderate speaker and nuanced in her views compared to dissenters or trump and they see her as a freshfaced, someone to look forward to and not look back at the grievances of two or three years ago. bt we will see on monday how they really land. with the weather is wreaking havoc so what will you be looking out for this weekend in iowa? will there be event being held? nikki haley will be back on the trail tomorrow and i think we will see how the other candidates handle the weather, it's the final scramble for them. i had an analysts say the truth is most voters have decided, it's a horrible time for candidates who realised there's nothing else to do but sit back and wait for monday night. one more question, how are the candidates, nikki haley

and ron desantis, talking about the frontrunner donald trump right now? ron desantis has been a little more bullish i think in his attacks for he former president, they do share some policy views. nikki haley has been very cautious. she will criticise donald trump but very carefully. when you favourite line is to say donald trump is the right president for the right time and she voted for him twice but rightly or wrongly chaos follows him. that's her pledge. she is trying to bring in trump voters are well and not insult or alienate them but saying we need to leave the chaos in the past and move forward to a peaceful future. the bbc�*s holly honderich reporting from iowa. thank you. for more on the candidates in iowa, i spoke to new york times political reporter maya king, and semafor political reporter shelby talcott. how disruptive has this been to this critical weekend ahead of the caucus? when you think about what is

required during a caucus, the engaging with voters and going out into the field and having these conversations about policies but also getting folks out to caucus for you and getting them to tell others, the weather has really disrupted that. it's just blizzard —like conditions here in iowa today across the state and it's caused a lot of problems for voters to be able to go to events and also for candidates like nikki haley and ron desantis specifically who really have needed to make up ground and tried to close this massive gap between themselves and former president donald trump and that's just requiring them to talk to voters, you know, nikki haley had several town halls today, governor desantis had a number of events where he talked to volunteers but also had to scale them down also and it's caused a lot of problems in this critical stretch of campaign time and also given them some things to look forward to in terms of clues if people will turn out in these same numbers that we once expected on monday.

shelby, to you now — we've heard of this thought that if the turnout is low on monday, it could help donald trump. do you think that's the case? it's an open question and i will say when i speak to each campaign they are arguing that lower turnout will help them. ron desantis' team in particular have noted they have an expansive ground operation here in iowa for months and that's ultimately going to help him. at the same time, we've seen donald trump is ahead by a vast margin in all of these poles and his team argues margin in all of these polls and his team argues that his voter base isjust more excited and has been with him for longer and so, they will turn out no matter what. they say the big rally that he has done. but this weather has even affected donald trump

who is now doing a number of tele—rallies this weekend instead of his in—person rallies. he is still scheduled to do one in—person rally on sunday but the entire presidential field has been affect by this and certainly, all of the campaigns expect that turnout is going to be a little bit lower. coming back to you, maya, haley and desantis, looking at the numbers now, they are clearly running for second place and we heard our correspondent to say that. and we heard our correspondent say that as well. but desantis has been running a strong ground game for weeks, really pounding the roads and making sure his team talks to as many voters in iowa as possible. do you think he has an opportunity to cut into donald trump's big lead? i think that's what his team is hoping for. government because dissenters has talked about criss—crossing the state and has really staked a lot of his campaign's success nationally on its success and the momentum that it generates here in iowa.

when you talk to voters here in iowa, particularly those who are interested in desantis, many of them are not exactly locked in and very enthusiastic about his campaign necessarily. there are certainly some people on the ground in grassroots leaders at the campaign that have enlisted to try to get more enthusiasm but it's not clear right now. it's certainly not a guarantee that he would cut into any real gains of former presidenttrump, but haley on the ground has had a fair amount of momentum from folks, especially after newjersey governor chris christie, a very outspoken trump critic, dropped out earlier this week. there was the expectation from the haley campaign that that would actually help her, especially among voters, republican voters, who are very staunchly anti—trump. i have not heard that same argument from the desantis campaign. i want to get your thoughts on the same question, shelby — these two candidates in particular cutting

into the big lead for donald trump? i think it's going to be really difficult. donald trump has a huge lead here and a huge base here and ron desantis's team have argued poles are wrong, just wait and see. at the same time, desantis historically has said in the past he is going to win iowa so the opposing campaigns have argued that's the bow that he has set for himself and anything lower than winning iowa is going to be a disappointment. nikki haley's team has been more vague in her expectations. theyjust want a solid showing, whatever that means for them. we're not sure. if they can get into second place in particular they believe that will boost them into new hampshire, where she is really gaining ground. so, this iowa caucus is almost a little bit different than past elections because it seems like the real fight is now in new hampshire. following up on that, and coming back to you, maya, we've seen the desantis campaign

saying he will skip new hampshire and go straight to south carolina. what do you make of that? he will be in south carolina for a night and go up to new hampshire, according to reporting from my colleagues and what we've been able to understand, but this directly translates to a calculation in his to their most immediate rivals. nikki haley is the former governor of south carolina and has banked a lot of her success in this primary. their calculus has been a really strong showing in new hampshire, is where she planned to spend a lot of her time, and of course counting on some of the built—in support in south carolina. by going to south carolina and having an event and starting the process again of campaigning there and sort of cutting into her built—in support in her home state, they feel and believe they can start the process perhaps of trying to get a little bit further

down the road, especially, excuse me, further down the road and the primary, especially if he does not perform to the expectations here in iowa on monday. really good to get both of your takes tonight from iowa. stay warm and have a really good weekend and looking forward to seeing your reporting on monday. many observers are wondering how iowa's demographics will influence caucus voting. the state is 89% white, according to the 2020 census, compared to 71% across the us as a whole. just under 50% of the population are female, slightly less than among the national population. about a1% of iowa adults identify as republicans, while about 77% are christian. of those, 30% are mainline protestant, while 28% identify as evangelical protestant. i was joined earlier by peter hanson, associate professor of political science at grinnell college in iowa, and brad todd, a republican strategist with 0nmessage. good to have you both with us tonight. brad, i want to start with you, to follow up on what we heard

there from the previous reporters. we saw the final debate between nikki haley and ron desantis earlier this week. who do you think came out of that stronger? first off, it was a substantive debate. you saw two people with a pretty broad grasp and deep grasp of policy. i think it is generally agreed that nikki haley probably fared the best overall through the debates, and i think getting 50% of the time helped her as well. it was also probably one of ron desantis's better debates. the stage was larger, he kind of disappeared a few times but in a 2—person debate he held his own. 0k, and coming to you, peter, i want to dig into the voters a little bit in iowa. you have a unique insight there into voters and their voting patterns. donald trump is still far and away the favourite. what makes him so popular among iowa among voters in particular? i think iowa is actually a very good reflection of today's republican party. iowa is a state that is largely rural,

there are large numbers of white voters in the state and it looks a lot like the republican coalition. it is a state that's always, um, in which donald trump has always done well. going back to 2016, he won iowa after it had voted for barack obama twice. and so i really think iowa today is at the heart of the republican coalition. to follow up on that, peter, what issues are driving voters there the most? it is an interesting race. i don't really think of it as an issue—based race. donald trump is fundamentally an antiestablishment candidate. he has a populist candidate, he runs against elites, he runs against immigration and he has the slogan, of course, "make america great again". it is a call to return to tradition, to an america of the past. and that really resonates here in iowa. this is a state which in a lot of respects looks like

the america of the past. our population looks like that. it is also a state where rural communities are struggling, where there has been a lot ofjob loss and so i think those core messages from him really resonate. you don't hear people talking about particular issues as much as sort of those core themes that we hear from trump again and again. personality and identity certainly. brad, coming back to you. given that hold that donald trump has on this race in iowa, in all of the races at this point, where does that leave nikki haley and ron desantis? what would success look like for them coming out of iowa? i think the trump campaignfirst off has always felt that iowa was perhaps the place where they were the most vulnerable. it is a very conservative state, and donald trump is not uniformly conservative. he has more populist tendencies and certainly populism and conservatism are fusing but he is not an ideologue. ron desantis has run to his right as a more conservative candidate. as you mentioned earier

in the segment, this is a caucus and not a primary, so citizens come out to their local public library, sit around and talk politics for an hour before they vote. so that is conducive to an ideological campaign like ron desa ntis. if ron desantis cannot beat donald trump in iowa, i think there is a real good question about whether he can beat him anywhere. when the race moves to new hampshire, independents can vote and it isjust a primary and the primary has almost as many independents as republicans in some years. nikki haley appeals to those independents and that is probably our best shot to break through. the test here in iowa it will be, can ron desantis get close to trump at all. and to follow up on that, brad, if nikki haley were to perform better than expected in iowa and then moves on to new hampshire, is there a pathway to victory for her there, to really win this nomination and take it away from donald trump? pathway to victory is a big statement at this point given trump's advantage in the polls, but american presidential contests tend to be very dynamic.

there is a boomerang effect, success in one state, you do not get arithmetic success the next week, you get geometric success in the contest. and because they are sequenced out over several weeks and even several months there is a chance to build momentum. in momentum, other than initial positioning is the most important thing in american residential contests. an early victory good changes contest fundamentally. but if donald trump wins big in iowa, gets over 50% and if he wins new hampshire, and he will go to south carolina where he is very strong. even though it is nikki haley's home state. i think you can see the end of the contest. peter, the iowa caucus hasn't picked the republican nominee for more than 20 years. why do you think that is? well... i think some of the points brad just made a good. iowa has traditionally been a place where the christian conservatives are very strong, and so you have seen iowa voting for people like mike huckerby or rick santorum. but today's iowa is changing.

they have been endorsements from evangelical leaders for ron desantis, governor reynolds endorsed ron desantis and it just doesn't seem to be sticking. i see iowa taking a populist turn and donald trump is the populist candidate. so my guess is that the state will vote very strongly for donald trump on monday, and i agree that he has a very good chance of going on to win the nomination. it has been a fascinating conversation... crosstalk. brad, please. one thing iowa does do is they say they don't produce a winner but the winner of iowa always makes a final two in the nomination process, no matter how many candidates we start with. so winning iowa is the single most important thing a person can do and finishing second in iowa is the second most important thing a candidate for president can do. ido i do not underestimate its power. they don't always pick the winner but they come close. thank you to you both.

it is worth asking how accurate are the iowa caucasus? well, since 1976, only 11 of 19 iowa caucus winners have gone on to secure their party's nomination. among them only three went on to win the us president. in recent history, president joe biden lost the iowa caucus to his now—transportation secretary pete buttigieg in 2020 but won his presidential race. and current republican frontrunner donald trump both lost the 2016 caucus and won the 2020 caucus to then lose the presidency that same year. so anything is possible. blizzards and bone—chilling temperatures are making the last few days of campaigning in iowa challenging. the national weather service predicts the coldest caucus night in modern, monday's high temperature is expected to be minus 3 degrees fahrenheit, that's minus 19.1; degrees celsius. earlier, i spoke to bbc 0nline reporter bernd debusmann — he is in des moines, in iowa. how have things been there this evening?

is it getting worse? it has been getting worse. temperatures have dropped and we are now at about 13 below zero and winds are picking up which has made driving very, very difficult. the roads are very slick. i drove this morning and even then, we were nearly white—out conditions but the winds really picked up. it has prompted the candidates to kind of cancel events and the natural weather service is now wanting that could be potentially life—threatening conditions. they have also said that frostbite could kick in on exposed skin in as little as ten minutes. so it has really kind of put a damper on the campaign trail as we go to the caucasus next week. how are the candidates dealing with this? what are they doing about all the events that they had planned for this week and leading up to monday? well, many of the events today and some of them

tomorrow have been cancelled in lure of kind of teleconferences. nikki haley for example had telephoned town hall, she called them. some will still be going on on the weekend, as far as we know so far. but they have really had to adjust the schedule which makes it very difficult in the last few days as they have made large minute pitch to voters. this is not really what they wanted. it has made things very, very complicated for the campaign in terms of reaching voters, many of whom don't want to be out here in the wind and the snow. that is our show. thank you for watching bbc news. hello there. a few wintry scenes captured by our weather watchers on friday across parts of scotland, such as here in perth and kinross. but the severe frost will become a lot more widespread as we go into the start of next week, with the potential for some disruptive snow, too. where is that colder air? well, it's behind this series of weather fronts. across northern scotland on sunday, that chilly airjust spilling down from the arctic as we head through the start of next week across the whole of the uk, with brisk and cold northerly winds blowing. so, lots of added wind chill to

factor into the temperatures. but this is how we start off the day on saturday, with temperatures hovering just above freezing, a few pockets of air frost where we see the clear spells, a week weather front sinking southwards, bringing outbreaks of patchy rain into northern areas of northern ireland, north west england and north wales. to the north of the front across scotland, some winter sunshine, showers by the end of the day in the north ahead of the front across england and wales, variable amounts of cloud, but also some brighter spells, temperatures ranging between 5—8 degrees celsius. and it's more of the same, too, on saturday night into sunday morning. there will be some clear skies around at times. we'll start to see the northerly wind pick up, brisk across the northern isles with some snow showers for the north of scotland. but again, to start the day on sunday, most of our temperatures will be slightly above freezing. but then that colder air really starts to show its hand with some snow showers even to low levels across northern scotland, with this feature just running down towards the north, further south as we head throughout the day. but we've still got the milder air with some winter sunshine

across england and wales, 7—8 degrees celsius here. but on sunday night into monday, there is the risk of some snow and ice, with weather warnings in place across northern ireland and the north of scotland. that wind starts to really pick up — look at the squeeze on the isobars on monday into tuesday — so wintry showers towards north sea—facing coasts with this feature running across northern ireland into southern scotland and perhaps northern england. so, here, the snow risk will extend further southwards through the day on tuesday. and then we look to the south—west to see this weather frontjust moving its way further northwards. there is the possibility that as it bumps into the colder air, we could possibly see some snow across the south of england on wednesday, but it's still very uncertain, so my advice would be to keep an eye on the forecast. it will certainly be cold. there is the greater risk of some snow with some severe frosts by night.

voice-over: this is bbc news. we'll have the headlines for you at the top of the hour, which is straight after this programme. the soldier filming this... groans ..is trapped. the woman and children he is looking at are not his family and the house he's in is not his home.

this house is in vuhledar, a town in eastern ukraine. gunfire the soldier belongs to the black beret marines from russia's elite 155th brigade. waves of men from this unit were sent to take vuhledar last winter. but this small town soon turned into a deathtrap. within days of the assault, the soldiers raised the alarm. in a rare protest letter, they claimed that 300 men were killed, wounded or went missing in four days. they also wrote that their commanders called them �*meat�*. they appealed for help from the man who championed them — their governor, 0leg kozhemyako. but the man they had pinned their hopes on disputed their claims.