that's where they'll be picking who they want to be the republican party's candidate in this year's presidential election. leading in the polls is former president, donald trump. also contenders are nikki haley, who served as haley, who served as ambassador to the united nations under president trump, and ron de santis, the governor of florida. all three have had markedly different campaigns. but what's been dominating the conversation around the iowa caucus has been the weather. it's bitterly cold in iowa with temperatures around —25 celsius — that's about 13 fahrenheit. i spoke earlier to rina shah, republican strategist, commentator and former republican senior aide. —— anomia iqbal. we did leave the cold weather behind us at the coming doors. it was about -26 us at the coming doors. it was about —26 degrees this morning. it's gotten slightly warmer at —20 degrees, but it's the kind of

weather where the national weather service has said is dangerous and life—threatening. if you stay out longer than ten minutes, there's a risk you might get frostbite even if you are layered up. i think the weather is one of those issues that people like to talk about more than politics. it has dominated conversation. when it comes to the issues at play, what are the different candidates talking about and how are people in iowa specific the responding? here in iowa, donald _ iowa specific the responding? here in iowa, donald trump _ iowa specific the responding? haze: in iowa, donald trump is iowa specific the responding? flee: in iowa, donald trump is by iowa specific the responding? hee in iowa, donald trump is by far the most popular candidate. the bull by the des moines register, the most prodigious full shows that he has a very commanding lead. all three candidates — there are others as well seen as outsiders — they all

have these different messages. ron desantis�*s message has been so—called war on woke. nikki haley's messages she is the alternative to donald trump. donald trump's message has always been he is the best person for the white house. he's usually popular here. but the interesting thing is he didn't win it into thousand 16, ted cruz won. it's important to stress that there's not a direct line from iowa to the white house. he would have to go all the way back to the year 2000 when george w. bush won here and got into the white house. it's a bit of a mixed bag. people in iowa are very proud of fact that their state fires the starting gun for the presidential election. ida the starting gun for the presidential election. no mia it fall there- _ presidential election. no mia it fall there. i— presidential election. no mia it fall there. i also _

i spoke earlier to rina shah, republican strategist, commentator and former republican senior aide. well, we are now officially kicked off to the 2024 election. this is the time now where many political observers will start to make predictions. but i would cautionjust because this is the first in the nation contest for republicans, i don't find it to be a litmus test for how the rest of the primary will go for republicans. there's a great deal at stake. but one thing is true about iowa caucuses. they are unusual in how they're conducted and they also bring about so much enthusiastic support that we don't see in other primaries. so, while people look at tonight with, of course, a great sense of what could this predict, it's also a really fun time for political insiders and observers like me. and of course, for observers like you, you will have sure, i've been watching the debates closely, but the man who has not appeared in any of the debates is the man who is leading in the polls,

mr trump himself. this has become much more about who gets second place. really, who is your money on? well, let's look back to 2016. donald trump's front runner primary campaign back then in 2016 hit its first speed bump in these caucuses. and of course, we know cruz was the one to win back then. so, tonight could we go one way or the other. of course, the polls are showing that he will be the favourite. and with the weather being what it is, i believe that this will be a moment in which we have to see whose supporters are most enthusiastic, and trump has always boasted the most enthusiastic supporters of the pack. but looking at each campaign on its face and on its merit, you see that donald trump has one thing to do tonight, and it's to dominate — notjust to be the front—runner, but again, to show that really wide margin between him and governor ron desantis of florida and nikki haley, the former governor of south carolina who served in his administration. these two people are supposedly the only two that could really hold a candle to what is considered a commanding lead for trump.

i would again caution people, don't take these polls i would again caution people, take these polls with a grain of salt. please don't put too much stock in them. but looking at desantis, for example, there's really no other candidate who has as much as stake as he does here. he's visited all 99 of iowa's counties, a political feat that's known as the full grassley after the state senator. and he and his allied groups have spent more than $35 million on advertising in the state. so he's, again, somebody who tonight is so big for him because he's also gotten the endorsement of the iowa governor, kim reynolds, as well as bob vander plaats, a very influential iowa evangelical leader. and then there's again, nikki haley, who, unlike desantis, iowa hasn't really been central to her campaign strategy and she hasn't spent much time in the state. she's chosen to focus on new hampshire, which comes next, where a lot of polls have shown her within striking distance. but let's not forget two other names which are still in the race, and that's vivek ramaswamy, the businessman, and asa hutchinson, the former governor of arkansas.

they are still in the race as well. republican strategist rina shah speaking to me. you can keep across all the twists and turns on the bbc news tv channel. we're all aware of the growing influence of artificial intelligence in our lives, but it's been a bit of a guessing game to work out how much it will affect the way we work. well, the international monetary fund has tried to put a figure on it and it's come up with the claim that as many as 40% ofjobs could be affected by ai. the figure varies depending on where in the world we have oui’ careers. according to the imf, ai will affect around 60% ofjobs in advanced economies. roughly half of workers will benefit from enhanced productivity but in other instances, ai could replace humans, and that could affect wages and employment.

in low—income countries, ai will affect around 26% ofjobs. and overall, the imf thinks that artificial intelligence could benefit higher income and younger workers as lower income and older workers fall behind in earnings. here's the head of the imf, kristalina georgieva. we must focus on helping lower income countries in particular to move faster to be able to catch the opportunities that artificial intelligence will present. in other words, embrace it — it is coming — set aside the fear of this significant change and concentrate on how you can best tap into the opportunity. live now to carl benedikt frey, associate professor of ai & work at the oxford internet institute, director of the future of work programme at the oxford martin school. very good to see on the programme.

aia, good or bad? the very good to see on the programme. aia, good or bad?— aia, good or bad? the potential is to cure disease, _ aia, good or bad? the potential is to cure disease, to _ aia, good or bad? the potential is to cure disease, to bigger- aia, good or bad? the potential is to cure disease, to biggerjobs - aia, good or bad? the potential is to cure disease, to biggerjobs are i to cure disease, to biggerjobs are interesting in our lives were constable. —— comfortable. but i think it's likely to lead to significant disruptions. fire think it's likely to lead to significant disruptions. are there “obs that significant disruptions. are there jobs that will _ significant disruptions. are there jobs that will be _ significant disruptions. are there jobs that will be negatively - jobs that will be negatively affected significantly? i jobs that will be negatively affected significantly? i think if ou look affected significantly? i think if you look at _ affected significantly? i think if you look at more _ affected significantly? i think if you look at more the _ affected significantly? i think if you look at more the clerical. affected significantly? i think if- you look at more the clerical work, that has been most exposed. more common punitive work can be increasing the substitute of as well, but i think the latest wave of ai is so different from the previous technologies in the sense that it still requires a human. it still needs fact checked, it's a lease

contact, it still needs editing. but if you're not a very good writer, you could become an average writer. if you're a good coder, you can become an average coder. it's not just a question of ai replacing jobs. it can help elevate people with lower skills to average levels of. ., ~' , with lower skills to average levels of. ., ~ , , , with lower skills to average levels of. ., ~ , , ., of. one of the key messages from the imf is the world _ of. one of the key messages from the imf is the world needs _ of. one of the key messages from the imf is the world needs to _ of. one of the key messages from the imf is the world needs to prepare - imf is the world needs to prepare for a future in which ai becomes even more integrated. how does one prepare for this technology which is still in its very early days? weill. still in its very early days? well, it's hard because _ still in its very early days? well, it's hard because we _ still in its very early days? well, it's hard because we don't - still in its very early days? well, it's hard because we don't know| still in its very early days? -ii it's hard because we don't know what most cases will be out. as things stand now, we tend to use artificial intelligence mostly for automation. it's very natural to think of how you can use the technology to do what you currently do more

productively, but the real question going forward is what previous inconceivable things can we now do for the first time. as we begin to assess kind of questions and see new jobs being created, on the of individual level, it's a bit of a guessing game. i think you need to think of, does my work involve high—level creativity? is it involve communication? does it involve navigating environments physically? if the answers to those questions are no, then i think you're quite likely to be exposed to automation and figure out whatjob transitions you can do with the skills that you have. ., ., .,

have. carl, from oxford internet institute, have. carl, from oxford internet institute. very — have. carl, from oxford internet institute, very good _ have. carl, from oxford internet institute, very good to _ have. carl, from oxford internet institute, very good to talk- have. carl, from oxford internet institute, very good to talk to. l have. carl, from oxford internet i institute, very good to talk to. my institute, very good to talk to. wi pleasure. ukraine says it's shot down a sophisticated russian spy plane, and damaged another in what analysts say would be a blow to moscow's air power. ukraine's army chief distributed this video showing two planes disappearing from radar above the azov sea. he claims ukraine's airforce had "destroyed" an a—50 long—range radar detection aircraft. according to some reports, the other aircraft was damaged, but did manage to land. the a—50 is a high value target which detects air defences and co—ordinates targets for russian jets. analysts at the uk's ministry of defence say russia "likely" had six operational a—50s, which cost hundreds of millions of dollars. russia has yet to comment on the reports. earlier, i spoke to peter dickinson from the atlantic council's eurasia centre. he's also the editor of ukrainealert blog. i asked him about the

significance of this event. it's being portrayed in ukraine as arguably the biggest success of the air war since the invasion began almost two years ago. both planes that were reportedly shot down on very high—value targets, in particular, the a—50 which was reportedly destroyed, has a great, great role to play in russia's both russia's ground operations in ukraine and also the air war against ukraine in terms of identifying targets within ukraine for russian air strikes. so, this is a seen as a very significant success against what are a very limited number of such planes in the russian fleet. and also there are limited number of of of personnel and also there are limited number of personnel who are capable of operating. so, presumably, the assumption being that those who were on board overnight were lost in the attack. so, as well as losing very important planes,

russia has also lost very important personnel. while ukraine has sent a very clear message that an area which russia believed was safe for them to fly the out of syria is not safe. well, i wonder. how much of a message does it really send to russia? because if this is such a significant strike, it's coming nearly two years into the conflict. is itjust a fluke or does this tell us something about ukraine's air defences and its military strategy? well, the ukrainians have been quite tight—lipped in terms of details. we don't know what was used exactly to achieve this. ukraine's commander in chief congratulated the air force on what he described as a well—planned operation. so it was clearly something that had been in the pipeline for some time. there'd been some plotting behind this. the most widespread speculation that

i've seen is that ukraine has brought forward some of its very limited patriot systems and used that to strike these planes, these russian command planes over the azov sea. so it does indicate that ukraine could reach further. it will push russia back further to stay safe. and it also underlines, first of all, the ability of ukraine to deploy the weapons systems it's able to receive from its western partners. and also underlines the fact that russia has not been able to establish air superiority and will be unlikely to do so. ukrainian forces soon expecting to receive the f—16 jets. peter dickinson from the atlantic council. around the world and across the uk. this is bbc news. the little 0aks and her 3, a place of friendship and fun. many

recruiting staff is becoming harder. gas, electricity, costs are going up. we are not getting the staff. there seems to be less people coming into the sector now. what there seems to be less people coming into the sector now.— into the sector now. what to mums and dads here _ into the sector now. what to mums and dads here think? _ into the sector now. what to mums and dads here think? shame - into the sector now. what to mums - and dads here think? shame manickum sooner, but and dads here think? shame manickum sooner. but it's — and dads here think? shame manickum sooner, but it's great. _ and dads here think? shame manickum sooner, but it's great. especially - sooner, but it's great. especially for pension— sooner, but it's great. especially for pension working full time —— a shame _ for pension working full time —— a shame it — for pension working full time —— a shame it didn't come sumer. the government _ shame it didn't come sumer. tue government said is delivering extra investment in the largest ever advancement of childcare. labour says it wants more nursery places in primary schools. an indie review has . head to the bbc news you're live with bbc news. a palestinian karate champion who was critically injured in a missile strike in gaza last

month has died in hospital. 24—year—old nagham abu samrah was injured in an attack in december, which also killed her sister. yasmin khatun dewan is in the newsroom with more. a real—life karate kid. nagham, pictured here, won first and second place in the palestinian karate championships in 2017 and 2019. those that knew her say she was rarely seen without her traditional belted uniform and black hijab. the karate champion not only won trophies, but also decided to pursue a master's in physical education and open a gym that offered training for girls in gaza. nagham's father, marwan abou samra, said her dream... but in december, nagham lost a leg in an israeli air strike that hit herfamily�*s home, in the central el nazareth neighbourhood. the athlete suffered from head injuries and fractures in her upper the athlete suffered from head

injuries and fractures in her upper body as she lay in a coma in the al aqsa martyrs hospital, in dier al bala. the karate champion was supposed to have been evacuated to egypt for specialist treatment, but only very recently received permission to cross the border. she died in the al—arish hospital, in north sinai while awaiting improved health to travel. in a statement released by the palestinian olympic committee, they expressed... a volcano in iceland has erupted for the second time in a month spewing lava into a nearby fishing port and setting several homes on fire. most of grindavik�*s 4,000 people had already been evacuated. 0ur science editor

rebecca morelle reports. the unstoppable power of a volcano, as houses are lost to the lava. the rapidly built defences couldn't hold back the moving wall of fire. this is a country that's used to living under the threat of eruptions. why is iceland so volcanically active? it sits on the mid—atlantic ridge, the boundary between the eurasian and the north american tectonic plate. they're slowly pulling apart from each other, but iceland is also from each other, but iceland is also above a geological hotspot deep inside the earth, where plumes of hot material can well upwards. the last eruptions were in the 1200s, lasting for decades, but then nothing for 800 years, until five eruptions that started in march 2021. so, why was there such a big gap? 0ver geological time,

the tectonic plates are pulling it so a few centimetres every year. but they don't seem to smoothly pull apart, they go through pulses of higher activity, and this is likely what we are seeing right now. what we're seeing right now. in 2010, in the south of the country, another eruption generated a giant ash cloud. it exploded through an ice sheet which pulverised the ash into an even finer material, disrupting air travel across europe. it's unlikely the same thing will happen now. there's no glacier here. instead, the lava is erupting through fissures, cracks in the ground. the 2010 eruption was over in a matter of months, but scientists think this could see lots of smaller eruptions, over a much longer period. but over a much longer period. the probability is once it's begun it's going to keep going for some time, and so that isn't great news

where this is occurring, because the most likely scenario is that there will be continued volcanism for the next multiple years. the current activity seems to be slowing, but there's likely to be more to come. iceland's president has said the country is battling tremendous forces of nature. rebecca morelle, bbc news. the former 0ne direction star zayn malik is creating a new stir with his latest project. the singer has teamed up with pakistani band "aur" to record his first urdu language single. our music correspondent mark savage has the details. it's a story of unrequited love. tu hai kahan has already been a massive hit in pakistan and india, where it's been number one on spotify and gained more than 96 million views on youtube. # tu hai kahan... and now zayn malik has jumped on board, singing in urdu, to the delight of his fans. in the star's hometown of bradford, a whole new audience

is being introduced to the song. it's quite catchy. i'm really happy for him, because it is nice for somebody so mainstream to hear a different side. of course, zayn is better known for pop songs like what makes you beautiful and pillow talk, but this isn't the first time he's sung in urdu. i would say it's the mostl fluent he's ever sounded. also, zayn collaborating _ with a relatively unknown pop band like aur gives the band huge - exposure internationally as well, so it felt like a really pleasant surprise for zayn fans - all around the world. this song from his debut album mind of mine was recorded this song, from his debut album mind of mine, was recorded as a tribute to his father, a pakistani immigrant to the uk. but releasing a single in urdu is a significant step. zayn says he's incredibly honoured to be featured on tu hai kahan,

and fans are already calling for him to sing more songs in urdu. mark savage, bbc news. police in cumbria are warning that more and more people who have lost pets are being conned out of money by fraudsters who claim to have found them. an investigation by bbc north west has found that scammers are going through social media posts from owners who are desperate to find their missing dog or cat. they then get in touch claiming to know where the animal is and demanding large sums of money for its return. dan 0'donaghue reports. i'll tie the dog up. i want £300 bank transfer. once you've got the dog, i want another £200. a menacing voice at the end of the phone. in this recording which the bbc has obtained, a blackmailer is demanding payment for a lost pet. it's one of hundreds of calls made to innocent pet owners in the last two years, leaving many people distraught and scared.

if i get my money, you'll get your dog tonight. get your dog tonight — simple. we found evidence of organised criminal gangs using lost pet social media posts to extort cash from owners. it's something linda tong from tilsley had first—hand experience of. i got a phone call from this guy, who said that he had lulu. linda's dog lulu went missing last year, and after searching to no avail, linda posted a plea on social media. it's then that the phone calls started. and he started talking about money, how much money i should pay. i think he mentioned 2,000, then he came down to 1,000. i said, "i'm going to ring the police." he said, "if you ring the police you'll never see lulu again." detective inspector amanda sykes is leading a cumbria police investigation into social media pet scams. we've identified over 200 victims, and that is countrywide. _ whether we've identified absolutely everyone that's been _ offended against by this group

of people, i'm not at all sure. | emma taylor from wigan has been left so scared that she doesn't want to show her face on camera. after her cat ziggy went missing, she received a threatening call. he said "listen, listen," and his voice was getting more and more aggressive. he said "this is the way it's be. if you don't pay me 500, your cat's gone." the things he was saying, my partner then realised he was reading off the posters. emma gave a statement to cumbria police, and this led to the rest of brandon woolveridge, who was convicted of nine counts of blackmail and one count of theft, and jailed for 44 months. but that hasn't put an end to emma's torment. she still receives calls to this day. he said, "i want £1,000 or else i'll come back and burn your house down." cumbria police are continuing to look into cases, and advise pet owners to be wary of any caller who demands cash in return for information about their animals. dan 0'donoghue, bbc news.

that is it from me for now. do stick with us on bbc news. christian is up next with in the context, focusing on the iowa caucus. bye—bye for now. hello there. over the last day or two, we have seen some problems due to snowfall across northern areas of scotland, but worse could be around the corner. and i think for tuesday, the threat of disruptive snow in scotland becomes much more widespread — more on that in a moment. 0vernight tonight, there will be plenty more of those snow showers packing in across northern scotland, with some further significant accumulations. it stays windy, so there'll be some further drifting of the snow and blizzard—like conditions at times. anotherfreezing cold night — —2 to “4 in the towns and cities, a lot colder than that, though, in the countryside. tomorrow, first of all, england and wales, for most areas, it's a dry day with plenty of sunshine. the sunshine won't do much for the temperatures — 3—4 celsius for many areas —

however, further north, that's where we're looking at the risk of some disruptive weather. an area of low pressure is set to move into this cold air with a spell of disruptive snow. now, the temperatures vary quite a bit across this weather system — for northern ireland, northern england and southern scotland, the air�*s a little bit milder, so there could be some rain mixed in with that, the snow will be heaviest over hills. whereas on the northern edge of this weather system, the air is cold enough to have the snow come right down to low elevations. and that means, through the central lowlands of scotland northwards, we're looking at some disruptive snow — 5—10cm, maybe even 20 in a few places, and, as well as those low—elevation snow totals, we are looking at similar amounts up over the southern uplands of scotland. and then, through tuesday evening, we'll see some snow arrive across the higher pennines as well. so, there is the risk of some more widespread disruption, i think, through tuesday. central lowlands of scotland, northwards, and across the hills of the southern uplands — i think that's where we'll most likely see the biggest

chance of disruption. some cars might get stranded in the heaviest falls of snow. by wednesday, an area of low pressure comes in off the atlantic. now, there will be some snow on the northern edge, tickling southern england. the heaviest falls stay in europe 20—30cm over there — that means the most disruptive weather will be, again, across more northern portions of the uk. another five to as much as 20 centimetres of snow piling in across northern scotland, still with strong winds causing that snow to blow and drift around as well. similar weather on the cards for thursday, but eventually, we do get out of the freezer. this weekend sees a return of wet and windy weather.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. you the context on bbc news. cannot sit home. if you' is you cannot sit home. if you're sick is a dog, you say... even if you vote and did not pass away, it's worth it, remember. if there's something other than politics that gets people talking a lot, it's the weather. it's about —25 celsius. the weather is something that may factor into the turnout. we have to see yet. with the carcasses really do most importantly— with the carcasses really do most importantly is _ with the carcasses really do most importantly is reveal _ with the carcasses really do most importantly is reveal unexpectedl importantly is reveal unexpected strengths — importantly is reveal unexpected strengths and _ importantly is reveal unexpected strengths and unexpected - importantly is reveal unexpected - strengths and unexpected weaknesses among _ strengths and unexpected weaknesses among the _ strengths and unexpected weaknesses among the array — strengths and unexpected weaknesses among the array of _ strengths and unexpected weaknesses among the array of presidential - among the array of presidential

candidates _ republican voters in iowa will face record low temperatures when they arrive at caucus sites in the next four hours' time to begin choosing a presidential nominee for 202a. in the last poll, donald trump had a lead greater than the combined total of his four republican challengers, but how will those subzero temperatures affect turnout? we have a stellar panel here tonight. in dc, brian lanza, who ran donald trump's transition team in 2016, our regular panelist and democratic strategist mary anne marsh, and kurt bardella, former senior adviser for the republicans on the house oversight committee. he switched to the democrats during the trump era. good evening. 0n pure numbers, the iowa caucuses do not have much of a role in determining who the next republican nominee will be. the state allocates just a0

delegates in the republican nominating contest.