republican voters in iowa will face record low temperatures when they arrive at caucus sites in the next four hours' time to begin choosing a presidential nominee for 202a. in the last poll, donald trump had a lead greater than the combined total of his four republican challengers, but how will those subzero temperatures affect turnout? we have a stellar panel here tonight. in dc, brian lanza, who ran donald trump's transition team in 2016, our regular panelist and democratic strategist mary anne marsh, and kurt bardella, former senior adviser for the republicans on the house oversight committee. he switched to the democrats during the trump era. good evening. on pure numbers, the iowa caucuses do not have much of a role in determining who the next republican nominee will be. the state allocates just a0

delegates in the republican nominating contest. that's not even 2% of the more than 2&00 delegates that are up for grabs, but that small total belies the outsized influence this state can on us presidential politics. as the first in the nation, the 99 counties of rural iowa can make or break a presidential campaign. but these caucuses are your personal chance to score the ultimate victory over all of the liars, cheaters, thugs, perverts, frauds, crooks, freaks, creeps and other quite nice people. so if you want to save america from crooked joe biden, you must go caucus tomorrow. the first step, it's really the first step. we've got to do it. we've got to do it big. you've got to get out. you can't sit home!

if you're sick it as a dog, you say, "darling, i've got to make it." even if you vote and didn't pass away, it's worth it, remember. nobody can predict what the electorate is ultimately going to look like tomorrow. you just can't do it given these conditions and given everything that's coming on. so the best thing for us to do is not to get caught up butjust keep doing what we've been doing. turn out these folks, they're fired up, they're ready to go. i'm fired up, i'm ready to go. and that, i think, is how you have a really good night, so we're looking forward to that. thank you. i think president trump was the right president| at the right time. i agree with a lot of his policies, but rightly or wrongly, - chaos follows him. you know i'm right. chaos follows him, and we can't be i a country in disarray and a world i on fire and go through four more years of chaos _ we won't survive it. so let us look at the final poll from the des moines register published this weekend. donald trump in a commanding position, just short of the 50% mark, which tallies with many of the polls last year. more significant is that

nikki haley, on the eve of the vote, finds herself in second place. that momentum continues to build. but still, the rest would appear to be fighting it out for second place, unless those margins are different when that vote comes in at around 2am local time. but these iowa voters will be participating in one of the coldest caucuses in decades. let me show you a live shot of the capital building in des moines. they give you a bit of a feel of it, let great skies tonight, streets filled with snow. when voting begins tonight, it will feel like —40 degrees in north—western iowa, —30 in des moines. ten minutes in that, and you will start to get frostbite. so i'm glad to see that nomia iqbal is out of the snow. looking forward to a really exciting night tonight. i'm saying that, and yet all the anticipation that i

normally feel for the iowa caucuses, it's different this time because trump has been so dominant. yeah, i think it is almost _ trump has been so dominant. yeah, i think it is almost seen _ trump has been so dominant. yeah, i think it is almost seen as _ trump has been so dominant. yeah, i think it is almost seen as a _ trump has been so dominant. yeah, i think it is almost seen as a done - think it is almost seen as a done deal that donald trump will win the iowa caucus. the des moines register poll over the weekend is a very respected poll and usually gets it right and it finds him at 48%. and if that does bear through, then that's a record—breaking number and that's a record—breaking number and that's what donald trump wants. so he has got a very commanding lead. it's hard to see what ken did that. there are questions of whether the weather will affect the turnout, if it will benefit him or if it won't. so really i think probably the story of the night will be who finishes second. will it be nikki haley? will it be ron desantis? ron desantis, i think it's fair to say, needs to do well. at the moment, the poll numbers are not good for him. he

needs to get 20 or 30% because right now what the numbers show is politically he's a dead man walking. so he will want to do very well, so it is i think a story that is from a bleep who gets second—place. what bleep who gets second-place. what uzzles bleep who gets second-place. what puzzles peeple _ bleep who gets second—place. what puzzles people obviously is that he gets more popular, the former president, the more they hold into account. the criminal cases it seems making him more popular. it’s account. the criminal cases it seems making him more popular.— making him more popular. it's true. and he knows _ making him more popular. it's true. and he knows that, _ making him more popular. it's true. and he knows that, which _ making him more popular. it's true. and he knows that, which is - making him more popular. it's true. and he knows that, which is why - and he knows that, which is why after the indictments we saw him immediately using that as his campaigning material. the court room is almost his campaign venue, and here in iowa, when you speak to people, the indictments, the court cases, all these legal problems to them is proof that in their eyes the establishment is going after him. having said that, i should emphasise there are some iowans who i've spoken to who are put by, as some would prefer ron desantis. they

think that he is shown more leadership, for example with dealing with the pandemic. many not happy with the pandemic. many not happy with the pandemic. many not happy with the way donald trump dealt with it. they felt listened too much to doctor anthony fatty. and one man said to me all the civil cases makes me think that it's too much trouble to vote for donald trump. —— anthony faucl to vote for donald trump. —— anthony fauci. there are alternative voices out there but for the most part iowa is a place it back donald trump. he did not win in 2016, ted cruz did but donald trump did to get one for the nomination and get the presidency so iowa is not really a good picture of where things go but i think it is said to say that it is a state is still very much back donald trump. we a state is still very much back donald trump.— donald trump. we always underestimate _ donald trump. we always underestimate his - donald trump. we always underestimate his ground j donald trump. we always - underestimate his ground game. donald trump. we always _ underestimate his ground game. he's got a lot of volunteers out across the state, urging people to come out in the call. nikki haley today and that more suburban areas of the day mowing, campaigning. who will it

benefit, this cold weather, in terms of turnout? the benefit, this cold weather, in terms of turnout?— of turnout? the interesting to see because there's _ of turnout? the interesting to see because there's an _ of turnout? the interesting to see because there's an argument - of turnout? the interesting to see because there's an argument that | because there's an argument that donald trump supporters might think he's going to win anyway so what's the point of turning out. but actually his supporters are some of the most loyal backers. we have seen them sort of whether any kind of situation to go out there and support him, lining up in long queues, even staying overnight to attend his rallies. there is an argument it could benefit nikki haley in some respects. a lot of her supporters tend to be the more cosmopolitan areas of iowa, so the roads are a bit clearer, the caucus sites are near. work could benefit ron desantis. he has really made a splash with the evangelical community here in iowa. it's a big, sensible community and they are seen as dedicated caucus goers. we should also remember there are others in the race as well. they are seen is

very much outsiders compared to the other three, very much outsiders compared to the otherthree, but very much outsiders compared to the other three, but it's really hard to predict i think at this stage who the weather will benefit and who it won't. . ~ , ., the weather will benefit and who it won't. . ~' , ., , the weather will benefit and who it won't. . ~' ,. , . the weather will benefit and who it won't. . ~ , . ., ., won't. thank you very much for that. a bi art won't. thank you very much for that. a big part of— won't. thank you very much for that. a big part of our team _ won't. thank you very much for that. a big part of our team taking - won't. thank you very much for that. a big part of our team taking us - a big part of our team taking us through the night of the results start to come and and do tune in for that. let's get a first word from the panel. brian, you have been involved in campaigns in the past and it does makea in campaigns in the past and it does make a difference when you have volunteers at their knocking doors and urging people to come out versus the paid canvassers who are hitting the paid canvassers who are hitting the phones for nikki haley. yes. the phones for nikki haley. yes, first of all— the phones for nikki haley. yes, first of all thank _ the phones for nikki haley. yes, first of all thank you _ the phones for nikki haley. yes, first of all thank you for - the phones for nikki haley. yes, first of all thank you for having me as it makes — first of all thank you for having me as it makes a big difference because when _ as it makes a big difference because when you _ as it makes a big difference because when you were doing with this hand—to—hand, in iowa which is taking — hand—to—hand, in iowa which is taking place. trump has enough supporters that are right out ploughing the roads in rural iowa to make _ ploughing the roads in rural iowa to make sure — ploughing the roads in rural iowa to make sure that their supporters have clear routes — make sure that their supporters have clear routes to go to these caucuses. and nikki haley has even into most— caucuses. and nikki haley has even into most of— caucuses. and nikki haley has even into most of her supporters are from the suburbs — into most of her supporters are from the suburbs and the city and their roads_ the suburbs and the city and their roads are — the suburbs and the city and their roads are ploughed with the organisational strength is to

mistreated by donald trump with the snowstorm that his people have to been _ snowstorm that his people have to been able — snowstorm that his people have to been able to go out, campus and make phone _ been able to go out, campus and make phone calls _ been able to go out, campus and make phone calls or go door—to—door but specifically— phone calls or go door—to—door but specifically make a pledge and get the roads clefts of the people can io the roads clefts of the people can go to— the roads clefts of the people can go to the — the roads clefts of the people can go to the caucuses. that is organisational strength if i've ever seen _ organisational strength if i've ever seen it _ organisational strength if i've ever seen it. ., ,, ., seen it. you speak to the campaigners _ seen it. you speak to the campaigners are - seen it. you speak to the campaigners are lots - seen it. you speak to the campaigners are lots of. seen it. you speak to the - campaigners are lots of what will they want out of tonight? they've entered the bar pretty low, saying 12 points to be really big win for us. on the other end of that, they could hit the 50% mark which would be unprecedented. what's realistic, do you think? i be unprecedented. what's realistic, do you think?— be unprecedented. what's realistic, do ou think? ., ., do you think? i would say from them, we can have — do you think? i would say from them, we can have a — do you think? i would say from them, we can have a service _ do you think? i would say from them, we can have a service differently - we can have a service differently two years — we can have a service differently two years now something 40 months a-o two years now something 40 months ago the _ two years now something 40 months ago the media wrote donald trump 's political— ago the media wrote donald trump 's political obituary so for them the win matter. two women 50 points plus matters _ win matter. two women 50 points plus matters a _ win matter. two women 50 points plus matters a lot — win matter. two women 50 points plus matters a lot. it's basically making the race _ matters a lot. it's basically making the race over because whatever argument — the race over because whatever argument nikki haley will try to make _ argument nikki haley will try to make in— argument nikki haley will try to make in new hampshire just is not sort of— make in new hampshire just is not sort ofioh— make in new hampshire just is not sort ofjob with what's going on with the — sort ofjob with what's going on with the race on the ground. sol think— with the race on the ground. sol think if— with the race on the ground. sol think if they get this 15 point plus when _ think if they get this 15 point plus when it's— think if they get this 15 point plus when it's probably going to come in,

you will_ when it's probably going to come in, you will see — when it's probably going to come in, you will see a huge push or other candidates — you will see a huge push or other candidates to drop out and consolidate the race and save their money _ consolidate the race and save their money and — consolidate the race and save their money and let's go after the real target, _ money and let's go after the real target, joe biden, because we literally— target, joe biden, because we literally nobody has a chance going forward _ literally nobody has a chance going forward. ., , , ., forward. ron desantis gave interviewed _ forward. ron desantis gave interviewed msnbc - forward. ron desantis gave interviewed msnbc this - forward. ron desantis gave interviewed msnbc this is i forward. ron desantis gave i interviewed msnbc this is he forward. ron desantis gave - interviewed msnbc this is he is not pulling out if he does not finish second tonight and will go want to south carolina but it seems as he will give new hampshire a swerve. you think you will look at wounded bulls and not if he's not in it position given the amount of he spent? position given the amount of he sent? , ., , ., spent? there is no question. of course he _ spent? there is no question. of course he was _ spent? there is no question. of course he was say _ spent? there is no question. of course he was say that - spent? there is no question. of. course he was say that everybody says that — course he was say that everybody says that on _ course he was say that everybody says that on the _ course he was say that everybody says that on the date _ course he was say that everybody says that on the date of - course he was say that everybody says that on the date of the - course he was say that everybody. says that on the date of the caucus and i_ says that on the date of the caucus and i know— says that on the date of the caucus and i know they're _ says that on the date of the caucus and i know they're not _ says that on the date of the caucus and i know they're not going to - and i know they're not going to win. he's in_ and i know they're not going to win. he's in the — and i know they're not going to win. he's in the fight— and i know they're not going to win. he's in the fight of— and i know they're not going to win. he's in the fight of his _ and i know they're not going to win. he's in the fight of his life _ and i know they're not going to win. he's in the fight of his life and - and i know they're not going to win. he's in the fight of his life and is. he's in the fight of his life and is nowhere — he's in the fight of his life and is nowhere to go _ he's in the fight of his life and is nowhere to go after— he's in the fight of his life and is nowhere to go after this. - he's in the fight of his life and is nowhere to go after this. the . nowhere to go after this. the fact is donald — nowhere to go after this. the fact is donald trump _ nowhere to go after this. the fact is donald trump as _ nowhere to go after this. the fact is donald trump as to _ nowhere to go after this. the fact is donald trump as to things - nowhere to go after this. the fact is donald trump as to things he l nowhere to go after this. the fact i is donald trump as to things he did not have _ is donald trump as to things he did not have a — is donald trump as to things he did not have a 2016. _ is donald trump as to things he did not have a 2016. he's _ is donald trump as to things he did not have a 2016. he's got - is donald trump as to things he did not have a 2016. he's got a - not have a 2016. he's got a real organisation _ not have a 2016. he's got a real organisation. he _ not have a 2016. he's got a real organisation. he built— not have a 2016. he's got a real organisation. he built it. - not have a 2016. he's got a real organisation. he built it. that's| organisation. he built it. that's not true — organisation. he built it. that's not true of— organisation. he built it. that's not true of desantis _ organisation. he built it. that's not true of desantis or- organisation. he built it. that's not true of desantis or nikki i organisation. he built it. that's i not true of desantis or nikki haley in that— not true of desantis or nikki haley in that they've _ not true of desantis or nikki haley in that they've outsourced - not true of desantis or nikki haley in that they've outsourced it - not true of desantis or nikki haley in that they've outsourced it was . in that they've outsourced it was about _ in that they've outsourced it was about as — in that they've outsourced it was about as good _ in that they've outsourced it was about as good. it _ in that they've outsourced it was about as good. it is— in that they've outsourced it was about as good. it is that - in that they've outsourced it was about as good. it is that he - in that they've outsourced it was about as good. it is that he hasl in that they've outsourced it was . about as good. it is that he has his evangelicals everyone _ about as good. it is that he has his evangelicals everyone talks - about as good. it is that he has his evangelicals everyone talks aboutl evangelicals everyone talks about desantis — evangelicals everyone talks about desantis bumb— evangelicals everyone talks about desantis pump and _ evangelicals everyone talks about desantis pump and support - evangelicals everyone talks about. desantis pump and support amongst even to— desantis pump and support amongst even to locals — desantis pump and support amongst even to locals but _ desantis pump and support amongst even to locals but donald _ desantis pump and support amongst even to locals but donald trump - desantis pump and support amongst even to locals but donald trump has| even to locals but donald trump has the most _ even to locals but donald trump has the most fervent _ even to locals but donald trump has the most fervent evangelicals - even to locals but donald trump has

the most fervent evangelicals who . the most fervent evangelicals who don't _ the most fervent evangelicals who don't view— the most fervent evangelicals who don't view him _ the most fervent evangelicals who don't view him as _ the most fervent evangelicals who don't view him as a _ the most fervent evangelicals who don't view him as a political- don't view him as a political candidate _ don't view him as a political candidate. they— don't view him as a political candidate. they view- don't view him as a political candidate. they view him i don't view him as a political| candidate. they view him as don't view him as a political. candidate. they view him as a messianic figure. _ candidate. they view him as a messianic figure. they- candidate. they view him as a | messianic figure. they believe candidate. they view him as a . messianic figure. they believe he was but _ messianic figure. they believe he was but on — messianic figure. they believe he was put on this— messianic figure. they believe he was put on this earth _ messianic figure. they believe he was put on this earth to - messianic figure. they believe he was put on this earth to save - messianic figure. they believe he . was put on this earth to save them. they— was put on this earth to save them. they will_ was put on this earth to save them. they will go— was put on this earth to save them. they will go through _ was put on this earth to save them. they will go through every - was put on this earth to save them. | they will go through every snowdrift tonight no— they will go through every snowdrift tonight no matter— they will go through every snowdrift tonight no matter what _ they will go through every snowdrift tonight no matter what you - they will go through every snowdrift tonight no matter what you get- they will go through every snowdrift tonight no matter what you get to l tonight no matter what you get to the caucuses _ tonight no matter what you get to the caucuses. so _ tonight no matter what you get to the caucuses. so that's _ tonight no matter what you get to the caucuses. so that's a - tonight no matter what you get to the caucuses. so that's a big - the caucuses. so that's a big difference _ the caucuses. so that's a big difference, and _ the caucuses. so that's a big difference, and last- the caucuses. so that's a big difference, and last point, i the caucuses. so that's a big i difference, and last point, after tonight, — difference, and last point, after tonight, whether— difference, and last point, after tonight, whether it's _ difference, and last point, after tonight, whether it's desantis. difference, and last point, after| tonight, whether it's desantis is second — tonight, whether it's desantis is second or— tonight, whether it's desantis is second or nikki _ tonight, whether it's desantis is second or nikki haley, - tonight, whether it's desantis is second or nikki haley, they- tonight, whether it's desantis is| second or nikki haley, they have nowhere — second or nikki haley, they have nowhere to — second or nikki haley, they have nowhere to go _ second or nikki haley, they have nowhere to go. even _ second or nikki haley, they have nowhere to go. even if _ second or nikki haley, they have nowhere to go. even if nikki - second or nikki haley, they have i nowhere to go. even if nikki haley wins new— nowhere to go. even if nikki haley wins new hampshire _ nowhere to go. even if nikki haley wins new hampshire which - nowhere to go. even if nikki haley wins new hampshire which i - nowhere to go. even if nikki haley wins new hampshire which i don't| wins new hampshire which i don't think— wins new hampshire which i don't think she — wins new hampshire which i don't think she will, — wins new hampshire which i don't think she will, you _ wins new hampshire which i don't think she will, you to _ wins new hampshire which i don't think she will, you to south - think she will, you to south carolina _ think she will, you to south carolina. that's— think she will, you to south carolina. that's her- think she will, you to south carolina. that's her home l think she will, you to south - carolina. that's her home state. she's— carolina. that's her home state. she's not— carolina. that's her home state. she's not going _ carolina. that's her home state. she's not going to— carolina. that's her home state. she's not going to win _ carolina. that's her home state. she's not going to win south - she's not going to win south carolina _ she's not going to win south carolina. desantis _ she's not going to win south carolina. desantis is - she's not going to win south carolina. desantis is not - she's not going to win south i carolina. desantis is not either. trump — carolina. desantis is not either. trump would _ carolina. desantis is not either. trump would beat _ carolina. desantis is not either. trump would beat him - carolina. desantis is not either. i trump would beat him in florida. i think— trump would beat him in florida. i think what— trump would beat him in florida. i think what you _ trump would beat him in florida. i think what you are _ trump would beat him in florida. i think what you are releasing - think what you are releasing especially— think what you are releasing especially with— think what you are releasing especially with the - think what you are releasing - especially with the endorsements of marco _ especially with the endorsements of marco rubio— especially with the endorsements of marco rubio and _ especially with the endorsements of marco rubio and mike _ especially with the endorsements of marco rubio and mike lee _ especially with the endorsements of marco rubio and mike lee and - especially with the endorsements of. marco rubio and mike lee and others is a consolidation _ marco rubio and mike lee and others is a consolidation around _ marco rubio and mike lee and others is a consolidation around the - marco rubio and mike lee and others is a consolidation around the party. is a consolidation around the party that donald — is a consolidation around the party that donald trump, _ is a consolidation around the party that donald trump, a _ is a consolidation around the party that donald trump, a week- is a consolidation around the party that donald trump, a week from l that donald trump, a week from tomorrow— that donald trump, a week from tomorrow night, _ that donald trump, a week from tomorrow night, can— that donald trump, a week from tomorrow night, can declare - that donald trump, a week from tomorrow night, can declare the | tomorrow night, can declare the primary— tomorrow night, can declare the primary over _ tomorrow night, can declare the primary overand _ tomorrow night, can declare the primary over and the _ tomorrow night, can declare the primary over and the general. primary over and the general election— primary over and the general election on _ primary over and the general election on. do _ primary over and the general election on.— primary over and the general election on. , ., ., ., election on. do you agree with that or can you — election on. do you agree with that or can you make — election on. do you agree with that or can you make an _ election on. do you agree with that or can you make an argument - election on. do you agree with that or can you make an argument for. or can you make an argument for nikki haley gathered momentum and of iowa and going through new hampshire and perhaps then gaining some ground in south carolina? i

and perhaps then gaining some ground in south carolina?— in south carolina? i think that the onl wa in south carolina? i think that the only way that's — in south carolina? i think that the only way that's possible _ in south carolina? i think that the only way that's possible is - only way that's possible is if donald trump stay sloping to present tonight. if she enters second place in iowa a bit more comfortably than the numbers right now would have us believe and she is able to put away desantis and force him to actually except reality and drop out and make this really a two person race heading to new hampshire, have a strong showing in new hampshire where it is close between her and donald trump and then actually create at least a narrative, a ration of that there needs to be at least one debate of nikki haley versus donald trump. 0ne least one debate of nikki haley versus donald trump. one thing we'd never seen if donald trump go one—on—one with a republican on the debate stage and when he went to live tv, anything can happen. we see people effectively in their candidacies and campaigns by screwing up debates and that's really the only path she has is to try to get a situation where she can convince donald trump to do a one on one debate and then hopefully out of that pull some sort of miracle where he disables on live television. short of that there really is no

viable path and i'm not saying this is a likely scenario, it's not. i'm just think that's really the only way i can for see nikki haley being competitive going for because listen we all know donald trump will easily win tonight. he's going to have a commanding lead across the board nationally in their own home states and which as pointed out and there is a consolidation happening whether it's senators like marco rubio or mike lee or even in the house with virtually all leadership now have endorsed donald trump going forward. it is in the republicans best interest to consolidate around their sure—fire nominee and getting to the general campaign for the than raising money and spending money and allowing joe biden to accumulate a lot of money. joe biden sitting on hundred $90 million, raise more money than barack 0bama did when he ran for reelection and is in the republicans best interest to try to consolidate and get the election campaign as soon as possible. certainly it donald trump would like that. we will talk more about the other candidates in the hour ahead.

we will talk more about the other candidates in the hour ahead, but before that we will go to a short break. you are watching bbc news. which gives us a chance to look at a few of the stories here in the uk. two men have beenjailed for life for the murder of a 14—year—old girl in west dunbartonshire in 1996. robert o'brien and andrew kelly arranged to meet caroline glachan and then repeatedly punched, kicked and threw bricks at her. a woman has also been found guilty of the murder, but has yet to be sentenced. junior doctors in wales have begun three days of industrial action over their pay. thousands of appointments and operations have been cancelled. the welsh government says urgent care will continue, but it has urged people to avoid going to hospital unless necessary. there are around 4000 junior doctors in wales, making up 40% of the medical workforce. reports of potholes are at a five—year high, according to new data from local councils and the motoring group the aa. scientists warn climate change will worsen the problem because there'll be more wet weather and extreme temperatures. the government says it's

investing an extra £8 billion to resurface roads. you're live with bbc news. there are no absentee ballots in an iowa primary. the republican caucus requires mandatory, in—person attendance starting 7pm sharp at 1600 individual caucus events across the state. at every one of these caucus events, someone speaks for the candidates and only registered republicans can take part. at every one of these caucus events, someone speaks for the candidates standing before casting a vote on a paper ballot, which are then counted there and then in front of the crowd. and there is a lot of campaigning that goes on in the room. four years ago, katty and i went to a barn in des moines, where a caucus captain walked us through the process. we've got sam here, our lovely producer, say hello to sam, and we've got tom, and katty and me.

i'm looking pretty viable. i've got four seats. sam, you're looking pretty hopeless over there, you've got one seat. tom, you may be viable, you've got three seats. let's say you're viable, but katty and sam are in the wind. what do we do? is this bit the where i start saying, "come to me, katty, i've got ben &jerry�*s?" or is this the bit where i say to sam, "look, you're not viable, but if you join me, the two of us together, we could viable?" absolutely. you come to me, sam. don't go to him, he's already fine. but i'm going to the white house, so why don't you come over here? but we are more aligned on policy, sam. sam, i think you should come to us for sure. we're right on on all the issues that are important to america. i'm not picking between parents. i'm going with tom. thank you so much, you made a wise decision. so this means i'm left, tom, and i'm not viable. i know...

so it's just the two of you groups now. you need to think long and hard which candidate's the best candidate for your ideals. that's an easy choice! it's about electability, where are you going? laughter. see, now we're more powerful than you! the key to this is to shows... it proves to the public in iowa and across the country which candidate has the best organisation for grassroots politics, and that's where it's at. shoe leather on the ground. and you can't beat the iowa caucus for that. caucus captain is very important. i am not entirely sure what went on four years ago. the amount of man—spreading in that video is just ridiculous. i'm sorry. i'm thinking should have come with a health warning. that was four years ago when i was a young man. anyway, let's focus for a time on donald trump and what we have seen this final weekend. that point that kurt was making the

already the polity is consolidating behind him, itjust struck me as donald trump was in court twice last week and there was not as much face—to—face time in the final week of the campaign is you probably expect from a candidate. maybe it's just another example of that, of how the former president defies political gravity.— the former president defies political gravity. there is always coin: political gravity. there is always auoin to political gravity. there is always going to be _ political gravity. there is always going to be examples _ political gravity. there is always going to be examples of - political gravity. there is always going to be examples of this - political gravity. there is always i going to be examples of this going forward _ going to be examples of this going forward. the magic of president trump — forward. the magic of president trump. but i would say keep in mind this courthouse appearance they are clinical— this courthouse appearance they are clinical events. they are campaign related _ clinical events. they are campaign related events. the whole thing we've _ related events. the whole thing we've seen in the past year since he's _ we've seen in the past year since he's been — we've seen in the past year since he's been indicted several times has been a _ he's been indicted several times has been a reversal of his poll numbers and actually putting them in a strength— and actually putting them in a strength and position. if you look underneath the surface of those poles, _ underneath the surface of those poles, it — underneath the surface of those poles, it shows college educated republican women who were sort of disappointed, disillusioned by president trump and his actions have never— president trump and his actions have never returned to the fold. that is a direct _ never returned to the fold. that is a direct result of of the

indictments against president trump. so i indictments against president trump. so i would _ indictments against president trump. so i would not discount any of these court _ so i would not discount any of these court hearings. those are all as much _ court hearings. those are all as much as— court hearings. those are all as much as they are criminal trials and thinks _ much as they are criminal trials and thinks that— much as they are criminal trials and thinks that in place, they are very much _ thinks that in place, they are very much campaign events that are actually— much campaign events that are actually galvanising the republican party and moving independent women back into _ party and moving independent women back into his direction. but party and moving independent women back into his direction.— back into his direction. but you talk about _ back into his direction. but you talk about the _ back into his direction. but you talk about the evangelical - back into his direction. but you talk about the evangelical vote j talk about the evangelical vote which no doubt is hugely important particularly in the rural areas of iowa. 0ut particularly in the rural areas of iowa. out of a square that support in iowa with 91 criminal charges, allegations that he paid money to an aduu allegations that he paid money to an adult film star, not to mention his attempts to overturn the 20/20 election? head of a square that? he is an unlikely hero for deeply religious christians.- is an unlikely hero for deeply religious christians. yeah, i mean it would be _ religious christians. yeah, i mean it would be hard _ religious christians. yeah, i mean it would be hard to _ religious christians. yeah, i mean it would be hard to find _ religious christians. yeah, i mean it would be hard to find a - religious christians. yeah, i mean it would be hard to find a biblicall it would be hard to find a biblical principle — it would be hard to find a biblical principle and _ it would be hard to find a biblical principle and apply— it would be hard to find a biblical principle and apply it _ it would be hard to find a biblical principle and apply it to - it would be hard to find a biblical principle and apply it to donald l principle and apply it to donald trump — principle and apply it to donald trump and _ principle and apply it to donald trump and it— principle and apply it to donald trump and it square _ principle and apply it to donald trump and it square it - principle and apply it to donald trump and it square it with - principle and apply it to donald trump and it square it with a l trump and it square it with a voter. it is especially, _ trump and it square it with a voter. it is especially, you _ trump and it square it with a voter. it is especially, you know, - trump and it square it with a voter. it is especially, you know, strangel

it is especially, you know, strange given— it is especially, you know, strange given the — it is especially, you know, strange given the christian _ it is especially, you know, strange given the christian evangelicals i given the christian evangelicals that support _ given the christian evangelicals that support him. _ given the christian evangelicals that support him. but- given the christian evangelicals that support him. but to - given the christian evangelicals that support him. but to his. given the christian evangelicals i that support him. but to his point, what _ that support him. but to his point, what donald — that support him. but to his point, what donald trump _ that support him. but to his point, what donald trump has _ that support him. but to his point, what donald trump has done i that support him. but to his point, what donald trump has done is i that support him. but to his point, i what donald trump has done is made the trials _ what donald trump has done is made the trials part— what donald trump has done is made the trials part of— what donald trump has done is made the trials part of the _ what donald trump has done is made the trials part of the campaign. i the trials part of the campaign. and he uses _ the trials part of the campaign. and he uses them — the trials part of the campaign. and he uses them to _ the trials part of the campaign. and he uses them to message - the trials part of the campaign. and he uses them to message voters, l the trials part of the campaign. and i he uses them to message voters, and in this— he uses them to message voters, and in this case _ he uses them to message voters, and in this case he — he uses them to message voters, and in this case he is— he uses them to message voters, and in this case he is showing _ he uses them to message voters, and in this case he is showing his- in this case he is showing his supporters— in this case he is showing his supporters and _ in this case he is showing his supporters and voters - in this case he is showing his supporters and voters that i in this case he is showing hisi supporters and voters that he in this case he is showing his. supporters and voters that he is being _ supporters and voters that he is being persecuted. _ supporters and voters that he is being persecuted. this - supporters and voters that he is being persecuted. this is - supporters and voters that he is being persecuted. this is not i supporters and voters that he is i being persecuted. this is not about a trial— being persecuted. this is not about a trial per— being persecuted. this is not about a trial per se — being persecuted. this is not about a trial per se, it's _ being persecuted. this is not about a trial per se, it's about _ being persecuted. this is not about a trial per se, it's about his - a trial per se, it's about his persecution _ a trial per se, it's about his persecution and _ a trial per se, it's about his persecution and he's - a trial per se, it's about hisl persecution and he's turned a trial per se, it's about his i persecution and he's turned to a trial per se, it's about his - persecution and he's turned to them and watch _ persecution and he's turned to them and watch other— persecution and he's turned to them and watch other relatives _ persecution and he's turned to them and watch other relatives he - persecution and he's turned to them and watch other relatives he talks i and watch other relatives he talks about _ and watch other relatives he talks about i'm — and watch other relatives he talks about i'm standing _ and watch other relatives he talks about i'm standing in _ and watch other relatives he talks about i'm standing in front- and watch other relatives he talks about i'm standing in front of- and watch other relatives he talks. about i'm standing in front of them coming— about i'm standing in front of them coming after — about i'm standing in front of them coming after you _ about i'm standing in front of them coming afteryou. i'm— about i'm standing in front of them coming after you. i'm the - about i'm standing in front of them coming after you. i'm the only- about i'm standing in front of theml coming after you. i'm the only thing between _ coming after you. i'm the only thing between you — coming after you. i'm the only thing between you and _ coming after you. i'm the only thing between you and being _ coming after you. i'm the only thing between you and being persecuted. | between you and being persecuted. they're _ between you and being persecuted. they're giving — between you and being persecuted. they're giving it _ between you and being persecuted. they're giving it to— between you and being persecuted. they're giving it to me, _ between you and being persecuted. they're giving it to me, and - between you and being persecuted. they're giving it to me, and i'm i they're giving it to me, and i'm doing— they're giving it to me, and i'm doing it— they're giving it to me, and i'm doing it for— they're giving it to me, and i'm doing it for you. _ they're giving it to me, and i'm doing it for you. and _ they're giving it to me, and i'm doing it for you. and that i doing it for you. and that really for those — doing it for you. and that really for those inclined _ doing it for you. and that really for those inclined to _ doing it for you. and that really for those inclined to really- doing it for you. and that really. for those inclined to really strong evangelical— for those inclined to really strong evangelical religious— for those inclined to really strong evangelical religious police i for those inclined to really strongl evangelical religious police speaks to them _ evangelical religious police speaks to them in— evangelical religious police speaks to them in a — evangelical religious police speaks to them in a way— evangelical religious police speaks to them in a way that _ evangelical religious police speaks to them in a way that is _ evangelical religious police speaks to them in a way that is not - to them in a way that is not political, _ to them in a way that is not political, but _ to them in a way that is not political, but very— to them in a way that is notj political, but very religious. to them in a way that is not i political, but very religious. and that's— political, but very religious. and that's what— political, but very religious. and that's what they _ political, but very religious. and that's what they believe - political, but very religious. and that's what they believe in. i political, but very religious. and i that's what they believe in. that's the kind _ that's what they believe in. that's the kind of— that's what they believe in. that's the kind of die—hard _ that's what they believe in. that's the kind of die—hard support i that's what they believe in. that's the kind of die—hard support you i the kind of die—hard support you see _ the kind of die—hard support you see we — the kind of die—hard support you see we always— the kind of die—hard support you see. we always see _ the kind of die—hard support you see. we always see the - the kind of die—hard support you see. we always see the line i the kind of die—hard support youi see. we always see the line from the rallies, _ see. we always see the line from the rallies, so— see. we always see the line from the rallies, so the — see. we always see the line from the rallies, so the lines _ see. we always see the line from the rallies, so the lines yesterday- see. we always see the line from the rallies, so the lines yesterday what . rallies, so the lines yesterday what indigo _ rallies, so the lines yesterday what indigo and — rallies, so the lines yesterday what indigo and se — rallies, so the lines yesterday what indigo and se donald _ rallies, so the lines yesterday what indigo and se donald trump - rallies, so the lines yesterday what indigo and se donald trump in i indigo and se donald trump in freezing — indigo and se donald trump in freezing cold _ indigo and se donald trump in freezing cold weather- indigo and se donald trump in freezing cold weather but i indigo and se donald trump in freezing cold weather but it's i indigo and se donald trump in i freezing cold weather but it's that kind of— freezing cold weather but it's that kind of die—hard _ freezing cold weather but it's that kind of die—hard support - freezing cold weather but it's that kind of die—hard support that i freezing cold weather but it's that kind of die—hard support that you | kind of die—hard support that you cannot— kind of die—hard support that you cannot quantify. _ kind of die—hard support that you cannot quantify. i— kind of die—hard support that you cannot quantify. i will _ kind of die—hard support that you cannot quantify. i will quibble i kind of die—hard support that you i cannot quantify. i will quibble with

a little _ cannot quantify. i will quibble with a little bit — cannot quantify. i will quibble with a little bit independent _ cannot quantify. i will quibble with a little bit independent women i cannot quantify. i will quibble with| a little bit independent women and voters _ a little bit independent women and voters and — a little bit independent women and voters and all — a little bit independent women and voters and all of _ a little bit independent women and voters and all of that _ a little bit independent women and voters and all of that and _ a little bit independent women and voters and all of that and maybe i voters and all of that and maybe in iowa voters and all of that and maybe in iowa but _ voters and all of that and maybe in iowa but i — voters and all of that and maybe in iowa but i think— voters and all of that and maybe in iowa but i think when— voters and all of that and maybe in iowa but i think when you - iowa but i think when you extrapolate _ iowa but i think when you extrapolate that, - iowa but i think when you l extrapolate that, especially iowa but i think when you i extrapolate that, especially in iowa but i think when you - extrapolate that, especially in the general— extrapolate that, especially in the general election— extrapolate that, especially in the general election it _ extrapolate that, especially in the general election it will _ extrapolate that, especially in the general election it will be - extrapolate that, especially in the general election it will be much i general election it will be much tougher— general election it will be much tougher to _ general election it will be much tougher to keep— general election it will be much tougher to keep independent. general election it will be much i tougher to keep independent women especially— tougher to keep independent women especially with — tougher to keep independent women especially with the _ tougher to keep independent women especially with the topic _ tougher to keep independent women especially with the topic of _ especially with the topic of abortion— especially with the topic of abortion which— especially with the topic of abortion which is _ especially with the topic of abortion which is really- especially with the topic of i abortion which is really going to drive _ abortion which is really going to drive the — abortion which is really going to drive the presidential— abortion which is really going to drive the presidential election l abortion which is really going to| drive the presidential election in 2024. _ drive the presidential election in 2024. but — drive the presidential election in 2024, but that's— drive the presidential election in 2024, but that's what— drive the presidential election in 2024, but that's what this - drive the presidential election in 2024, but that's what this is - drive the presidential election in 2024, but that's what this is att| 2024, but that's what this is all about — 2024, but that's what this is all about it's _ 2024, but that's what this is all about it's a _ 2024, but that's what this is all about. it's a very— 2024, but that's what this is all about. it's a very clever - 2024, but that's what this is all l about. it's a very clever campaign tactic— about. it's a very clever campaign tactic that — about. it's a very clever campaign tactic that donald _ about. it's a very clever campaign tactic that donald trump - about. it's a very clever campaign tactic that donald trump is - about. it's a very clever campaign tactic that donald trump is usingl tactic that donald trump is using that works — tactic that donald trump is using that works very— tactic that donald trump is using that works very well— tactic that donald trump is using that works very well in _ tactic that donald trump is using that works very well in states i tactic that donald trump is usingl that works very well in states like iowa _ that works very well in states like iowa that — that works very well in states like iowa that is— that works very well in states like iowa that is dominated _ that works very well in states like iowa that is dominated by- iowa that is dominated by evangelicals. _ iowa that is dominated by evangelicals.— iowa that is dominated by evangelicals. iowa that is dominated by evanuelicals. ,, , . evangelicals. issues later in the programme _ evangelicals. issues later in the programme but _ evangelicals. issues later in the programme but let's _ evangelicals. issues later in the programme but let's pick- evangelicals. issues later in the programme but let's pick up i evangelicals. issues later in the l programme but let's pick up that point, the florida governor as we already discussed has thrown all the chips down on iowa. visited all the counties, lended chips down on iowa. visited all the counties, [ended the endorsement... the florida governor ron desantis is the one who has bet all his chips on iowa. he has visited all 99 counties. he landed the endorsements of iowa governor kim reynolds, the evangelical leader bob vander plaats. he has knocked on nearly a million doors. but in the polling, he is going backwards. this is the poll this weekend versus the polling in august. he has lost second place to nikki haley, and suddenly

the candidate who only last month was claiming he would win this caucus is now telling voters he likes his chances as the underdog. we're going to do well. i mean, like, you know, this all... if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, every day would be christmas. there's all kind of different things we're going to do. we're going to do well. i like being underestimated. i like being the underdog. i think that that's better. i think my supporters like that. i think that they understand. i mean, if you think about it, you know, we've got media against us. you know, we're taking shots from the former president. i'm taking shots from the republican establishment, all this stuff. and it's just like we're there and we got the people behind us and we're building one community at a time. and that's what we've done. and i think i think that's the way you do it. like ted cruz in 2016, he spent a lot of time in the northwestern counties of iowa, the rural evangelical areas. counties of iowa, the rural evangelicalareas. he counties of iowa, the rural evangelical areas. he thinks his ground them up there is pretty good

and ijust wonder if we are underestimating actually the strength of support for ron desantis and his poll and actually one of the evangelicals are a monolithic block or whether in fact some of them have peeled away from donald trump and might vote for desantis tonight. the one thing that we seen but this primary— one thing that we seen but this primary is_ one thing that we seen but this primary is that the more people are exposed _ primary is that the more people are exposed to— primary is that the more people are exposed to desantis, the more his numbers— exposed to desantis, the more his numbers have gone south. this guy is 'ust numbers have gone south. this guy is just not_ numbers have gone south. this guy is just not likeable. going to alt 99 counties — just not likeable. going to alt 99 counties i — just not likeable. going to alt 99 counties i think was a terrible idea for desantis because more people actually— for desantis because more people actually see him, the less impressed he becomes to them. once you see him up he becomes to them. once you see him up close _ he becomes to them. once you see him up close to _ he becomes to them. once you see him up close to people who work in congress — up close to people who work in congress and served in congress like i did working in the house when he was a _ i did working in the house when he was a member, they would all tell you this _ was a member, they would all tell you this is — was a member, they would all tell you this is not a guy who if he walked — you this is not a guy who if he walked into a room you would walk across that — walked into a room you would walk across that room to shake his hand. he just _ across that room to shake his hand. he just is _ across that room to shake his hand. he just is not — across that room to shake his hand. he just is not that guy. the idea that he — he just is not that guy. the idea that he would be president of the us is laughable to those of us who knew him in _ is laughable to those of us who knew him in the _ is laughable to those of us who knew him in the house and that's how it's put out _ him in the house and that's how it's put out on _ him in the house and that's how it's put out on the campaign triple to more _ put out on the campaign triple to more voters become more familiar with hinr. — more voters become more familiar with him, the less they like him.

and sub — with him, the less they like him. and sub what he is saying is what you say— and sub what he is saying is what you say we — and sub what he is saying is what you say we are losing, what you say when _ you say we are losing, what you say when you _ you say we are losing, what you say when you know you're going to lose but it's _ when you know you're going to lose but it's all— when you know you're going to lose but it's all about your ps because we all— but it's all about your ps because we all know that he is not and a strong position. he does not like being _ strong position. he does not like being the — strong position. he does not like being the underdog or the fact that he's going — being the underdog or the fact that he's going to get trounced by at least _ he's going to get trounced by at least 30 — he's going to get trounced by at least 30 points by donald trump. death _ least 30 points by donald trump. death in— least 30 points by donald trump. death in a — least 30 points by donald trump. death in a position of strength or a real gritty— death in a position of strength or a real gritty underdog you could root for. real gritty underdog you could root for it _ real gritty underdog you could root for it is _ real gritty underdog you could root for. it isjust an indictment against _ for. it isjust an indictment against his hilarity and the fact the primary votersjust have not caught— the primary votersjust have not caught on— the primary votersjust have not caught on to desantis that's been the entire — caught on to desantis that's been the entire victory of his entire primary— the entire victory of his entire primary campaign. the entire victory of his entire primary campaign-— the entire victory of his entire primary campaign. quickly, it 'ust shows it actually i primary campaign. quickly, it 'ust shows it actually retail * primary campaign. quickly, it 'ust shows it actually retail value h primary campaign. quickly, itjust shows it actually retail value of. primary campaign. quickly, itjust shows it actually retail value of a l shows it actually retail value of a candidate who can shake hands warmly and hit the crowd counts for a lot. absolutely. especially in iowa. the race is— absolutely. especially in iowa. the race is always _ absolutely. especially in iowa. the race is always a _ absolutely. especially in iowa. the race is always a popularity - absolutely. especially in iowa. the| race is always a popularity contest, about _ race is always a popularity contest, about the _ race is always a popularity contest, about the you — race is always a popularity contest, about the you be _ race is always a popularity contest, about the you be willing _ race is always a popularity contest, about the you be willing to - race is always a popularity contest, about the you be willing to grab - race is always a popularity contest, about the you be willing to grab a i about the you be willing to grab a beer with — about the you be willing to grab a beer with. after— about the you be willing to grab a beer with. after about— about the you be willing to grab a beer with. after about $200 - about the you be willing to grab a i beer with. after about $200 million, not many— beer with. after about $200 million, not many want — beer with. after about $200 million, not many want to— beer with. after about $200 million, not many want to give _ beer with. after about $200 million, not many want to give a _ beer with. after about $200 million, not many want to give a beer- beer with. after about $200 million, not many want to give a beer with i not many want to give a beer with ron desantis _ not many want to give a beer with ron desantis. that's— not many want to give a beer with ron desantis. that'sjust - not many want to give a beer with ron desantis. that's just the - not many want to give a beer with ron desantis. that'sjust the way| ron desantis. that'sjust the way life is _ ron desantis. that'sjust the way life is he — ron desantis. that'sjust the way life is he is— ron desantis. that'sjust the way life is. he is good _ ron desantis. that'sjust the way life is. he is good at— ron desantis. that'sjust the way life is. he is good at policy- ron desantis. that'sjust the way life is. he is good at policy not. ron desantis. that'sjust the wayj life is. he is good at policy not on personality, — life is. he is good at policy not on personality, ok? _

life is. he is good at policy not on personality, ok? you _ life is. he is good at policy not on personality, ok? you will- life is. he is good at policy not on personality, ok? you will be - life is. he is good at policy not onl personality, ok? you will be gone life is. he is good at policy not on- personality, ok? you will be gone by tonight— personality, ok? you will be gone by tonight is— personality, ok? you will be gone by tonight is my— personality, ok? you will be gone by tonight is my suspicion _ personality, ok? you will be gone by tonight is my suspicion even - personality, ok? you will be gone by tonight is my suspicion even though. tonight is my suspicion even though he says— tonight is my suspicion even though he says south— tonight is my suspicion even though he says south carolina _ tonight is my suspicion even though he says south carolina will - tonight is my suspicion even though he says south carolina will stop - he says south carolina will stop being _ he says south carolina will stop being a — he says south carolina will stop being a factor, _ he says south carolina will stop being a factor, he _ he says south carolina will stop being a factor, he will- he says south carolina will stop being a factor, he will not - he says south carolina will stop being a factor, he will not be i he says south carolina will stop being a factor, he will not be a| being a factor, he will not be a factor— being a factor, he will not be a factor after _ being a factor, he will not be a factor after tonight. _ being a factor, he will not be a factor after tonight. it's - being a factor, he will not be a factor after tonight.— factor after tonight. it's that smile- the _ factor after tonight. it's that smile. the practice - factor after tonight. it's that smile. the practice smile i factor after tonight. it's that smile. the practice smile is| smile. the practice smile is certainly a feature of many of the means. of short break and play more iowa on the other side, stay with us. hello there. over the last day or two, we have seen some problems due to snowfall across northern areas of scotland, but worse could be around the corner. and i think for tuesday, the threat of disruptive snow in scotland becomes much more widespread — more on that in a moment. overnight tonight, there will be plenty more of those snow showers packing in across northern scotland, with some further significant accumulations. it stays windy, so there'll be some further drifting of the snow and blizzard—like conditions at times. anotherfreezing cold night — —2 to —1i in the towns and cities, a lot colder than that, though, in the countryside. tomorrow, first of all, england and wales, for most areas, it's a dry day with plenty of sunshine. the sunshine won't do much for the temperatures — 3—4 celsius for many areas —

however, further north, that's where we're looking at the risk of some disruptive weather. an area of low pressure is set to move into this cold air with a spell of disruptive snow. now, the temperatures vary quite a bit across this weather system — for northern ireland, northern england and southern scotland, the air�*s a little bit milder, so there could be some rain mixed in with that, the snow will be heaviest over hills. whereas on the northern edge of this weather system, the air is cold enough to have the snow come right down to low elevations. and that means, through the central lowlands of scotland northwards, we're looking at some disruptive snow — 5—10cm, maybe even 20 in a few places, and, as well as those low—elevation snow totals, we are looking at similar amounts up over the southern uplands of scotland. and then, through tuesday evening, we'll see some snow arrive across the higher pennines, as well. so, there is the risk of some more widespread disruption, i think, through tuesday. central lowlands of scotland, northwards, and across the hills of the southern uplands — i think that's where we'll most likely see the biggest

chance of disruption. some cars might get stranded in the heaviest falls of snow. by wednesday, an area of low pressure comes in off the atlantic. now, there will be some snow on the northern edge, tickling southern england. the heaviest falls stay in europe 20—30cm over there — that means the most disruptive weather will be, again, across more northern portions of the uk. another five to as much as 20 centimetres of snow piling in across northern scotland, still with strong winds causing that snow to blow and drift around, as well. similar weather on the cards for thursday, but eventually, we do get out of the freezer. this weekend sees a return of wet and windy weather.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. hello, i'm christian fraser. the starting gun is fired in the us presidential race republicans in iowa weigh in on who their party's 2024 nominee should be. other side of the sport we will take a look at the campaign of nikki haley. who is running second in iowa. but before we do that lets head to the bbc sport centre, hello from the bbc sport centre in the last hour. everton and nottingham forest have been charged by the premier league for breaches of the league's

profitability and sustainability rules. under premier league regulations, clubs can lose a maximum of £105m over a three—season period, or £35 million per campaign, before facing sanctions. both clubs have been referred to an independent commission while everton are already awaiting an appeal on previous 10? point deduction. professor rob wilson is a football finance expert at sheffield hallam university. this been a huge amount of talk about the alleged breaches of financial fair play and sustainability regulations for these two clubs is not really that surprising that the premier league is referred both close to the independent commission and two major factors, first of all being everton football club have been sanctioned from previous breaches and is the announcement of a potential regulator demonstrating the particular league really needs to get much tougher in applying its own regulations.