we results as they come in. we will no results as they come in. we will go back _ results as they come in. we will go back to _ results as they come in. , will go back to katrina and i were to bring us up—to—date on everything happening there. katrina? {iii everything happening there. katrina? , ., katrina? of course as donald trump is _ katrina? of course as donald trump is projected _ katrina? of course as donald trump is projected to - katrina? of course as donald trump is projected to be - katrina? of course as donald trump is projected to be the| trump is projected to be the winner here the question is whether former governor of south carolina nikki haley or the current governor of florida ron desantis will come on in second place that is the battle on at the moment. we can go across to the donald trump watch party to speak to our north america editor sarah smith. what is the scene like there at the moment?- smith. what is the scene like there at the moment? there are lots of excited _ there at the moment? there are lots of excited donald _ there at the moment? there are lots of excited donald trump - lots of excited donald trump supporters coming here to join the party, there is popcorn rather than champagne on offer for them, they are gathering, celebrating, congratulating each other on what looks to be a victorious night for them. we don't have the official results in but it seems clear donald

trump will take the iowa caucus. what nobody here knows which is interesting to watch is whether the rejections that donald trump may have won more than 50% of the vote will come true. that are psychologically really important for the trump campaign and for his rivals as well because remember it had been predicted before that if only the republicans could consolidate their non— trump support behind one candidate, not split between ron desantis and nikki haley, just get one anti— trump candidate to run against them may that could present a real challenge to the former president. if here in the first date to make its decision he has taken over 50%, that makes it look very difficult to anybody to be able to challenge him as we go further into this race. the trump team will be watching that carefully because they would like to get this over and done with. finish with the primaries, get the nominations so an up and get on with

attacking joe biden and the general election phase of this presidential year.— presidential year. alongside all of that — presidential year. alongside all of that the _ presidential year. alongside all of that the former - all of that the former president still has to deal with various legal issues that stand be, four different sets of criminal charges, january six investigations and other legal issues starting tomorrow morning? we legal issues starting tomorrow morninu? ~ , ., , morning? we understand he is auoin to morning? we understand he is going to leave _ morning? we understand he is going to leave here, _ morning? we understand he is going to leave here, the - morning? we understand he is going to leave here, the iowa | going to leave here, the iowa and appear in a courtroom in new york tomorrow in the case with eg and carol the magazine writer he was found to have sexually assaulted in a case last year. one of many, many legal problems he has got, not even one of the four criminal cases he is facing. he could spend a lot of this year in court, time that will not be spent on the campaign trail which is a pointy stresses every time he does make a court appearance. it is fascinating

over the last couple of weeks he has turned up in washington, new york and different cases when he was not required to be there, he could have been holding a rally in iowa or doing a campaign event a new hampshire the next eight ( he chose to be in court because he thinks the images of him appearing there arejust thinks the images of him appearing there are just as appealing to voters is actually going out and talking to them about what he would do as president because one of the mainstays of this campaign one of the reasons why a lot of voters who had gone off donald trump in the last few years have come back to him is this deep sense of injustice they feel on his behalf about the number of criminal cases that are pending against. this time last year donald trump did not have a lot of support, we would not have anticipated we would be here talking about the inevitability of him becoming the republican candidate. that support started going up again the very day he was indicted in new york in the first of those cases where he was accused of

paying hush money to stormy daniels the adult film star. the support started going up then and increased every time he was arrested and indicted for those other cases, fundraising went up as well. it is the court cases that set alight his campaign, he obviously intends to use them through the course of the rest of this year is a central plank of this year is a central plank of his campaign stop. we expect to hear from _ of his campaign stop. we expect to hear from the _ of his campaign stop. we expect to hear from the former - to hear from the former president at that watch party later, any indication as to when he may arrive rest in? i when he may arrive rest in? i have seen a couple of men and bullet—proof vests walking past me a sign some and may be about to happen when you start seeing more security appear and we are treated to some of donald trump ausmat playlist as you can probably hear behind me. once you start hearing the village people you know he is somewhere close and when his favourite song i am proud to be an american comes on we know we

are seconds away from donald trump taking the stage.- trump taking the stage. keep our musically _ trump taking the stage. keep our musically tuned _ trump taking the stage. keep our musically tuned is - trump taking the stage. keep our musically tuned is out - trump taking the stage. keep our musically tuned is out for| our musically tuned is out for that. sarah smith, thank you for that. the caucuses are still under way in iowa although the result is projected to be quite a phenomenal win for the former president, donald trump, plenty of folks are still caucusing in the final results are far from coming in, the battle for second place from nikki haley and ron desantis. we will speak to helen humphrey who has been monitoring those results as they come in. what is the latest position? we they come in. what is the latest position?— they come in. what is the latest osition? . ., ., , latest position? we are roughly approaching — latest position? we are roughly approaching the _ latest position? we are roughly approaching the halfway - latest position? we are roughly approaching the halfway mark, | approaching the halfway mark, 46% of precincts countered by my estimation 800 precincts to report as you were mentioning their katrina from what we have seen with those results, 52.2% for donald trump, ron desantis in second position right now,

incredibly close, jockeying between these two candidates for the position between second and third place with hayley with i9%, and third place with hayley with i9%, the red mark means data as new coming —— new data is coming in, donald trump with 52%, ron desantis sitting on second position. what has been driving donald trump in terms of the demographics for iowa. we can have a look some clear trends emerging. firstly when it comes to the evangelical christian vote, that has been seeing a strong showing for donald trump, taking a look at line county, there is a really strong results. only one out of ten precincts countered but an early indication 72% for donald trump, ron desantis on 12% as i mentioned, that is early but were it to stay that way that would be a disappointing result for the ron desantis campaign because they have thrown so much energy into aggressively

courting that religiously conservative vote. if we take a move down, this is donald trump's reed and button and it has been from his early days, those populist votes in plymouth where we have a lot of blue—collar workers, and there donald trump with 68%, the same if we pop over here, to clinton, 69% there as well. another area that has been doing well for donald trump we are starting to see is white conservative voters, if we go over here 7li%, conservative voters, if we go over here 7a%, and if i'm not mistaken that is the strongest showing scene for donald trump at the time, ten out of ii precincts countered and ron desantis with 13%. looking at the other two candidates to see where they have strongly. sue county 42, he has done well with the evangelical christians

there, to note on that 2016 donald trump did terribly there, not a big surprise. he upset the dutch reformist branch, so ron desantis managing to prevail there and if we go over here, the one area that has gone purple for nikki haley the story where we have a lot more people working with college degree level kind ofjobs with college degree level kind of jobs with 40% with college degree level kind ofjobs with 40% of the vote, early days the other areas where she wanted to do well, lynn county, we can see she is in third position. that will be disappointing for her right now. this is all about the enthusiasm isn't it? we know donald trump voters compared to nikki haley were very enthusiastic to come out and caucas. ., ~' enthusiastic to come out and caucas. ., ~ , ., y enthusiastic to come out and caucas. ., ~ ,, , . caucas. thank you very much, we will check — caucas. thank you very much, we will check with _ caucas. thank you very much, we will check with you _ caucas. thank you very much, we will check with you later - caucas. thank you very much, we will check with you later in - caucas. thank you very much, we will check with you later in a - will check with you later in a little while to see how the results are continuing to roll

in. we can go across to the nikki haley watch party and speak to our north american correspondence, gary o'donoghue. no result yet in terms of who is coming in second, nikki haley and ron desantis in a tight battle for second place to that runaway victory from the former president donald trump. what's it like at the watch party there? , ., it like at the watch party there? , . ., ., , there? they are waiting to see, it is very much _ there? they are waiting to see, it is very much from _ there? they are waiting to see, it is very much from their- it is very much from their point of view unclear about the second and third place, that will make a huge amount of difference to this campaign if they can come in second. they had big hopes for some of those suburban areas, helen i was talking about lynn county, up around cedar rapids and places like that, story county we have iowa state university and those with the sorts of areas she was hoping to pick up the numbers, we still have a large percentage of the boat to come

in and that is what they will be feeling here, this thing isn't over until it is over. they can look forward if you like to new hampshire where the gap between nikki haley and donald trump is much smaller according to the polling at any rate, they can get a decent finish here, they could take that into new hampshire. the big problem for the nikki haley campaign is a month away, her home state the state she was governor two times, a popular governor, two times is trailing donald trump 30 points, that is a huge political problem for her. , . ~' i” a huge political problem for her. , . ~' ., . her. gary, thank you for that. we will wait _ her. gary, thank you for that. we will wait to _ her. gary, thank you for that. we will wait to see _ her. gary, thank you for that. we will wait to see nikki - her. gary, thank you for that. | we will wait to see nikki haley turn up there later to deliver a speech before the focus moves to new hampshire where she is polling very well. i am joined by pollster supremo frank.

looking at the result we only have a small proportion of precincts reported but it does look like a runaway victory at donald trump that all of the poles before now had predicted. it is more than that 50% of the boat is what he said he would do the argument he used to push the other candidates out, that he was getting more votes than all of them combined, looks like it may be the case and if that holds, that is a significant, a meaningful measurable victory for the former president. the fact nikki haley is fighting with ron desantis for second place did even, means ron desantis can continue and nikki haley can continue and nikki haley can say she came up, it is not the second finish place she wanted and it is enough for ron desantis to continue.- desantis to continue. looking at the map — desantis to continue. looking at the map some _ desantis to continue. looking at the map some of _ desantis to continue. looking at the map some of those - at the map some of those counties where nikki haley is doing very well it is less

conservative areas, more urban areas, perhaps there are independence, nonparty aligned individuals who recovered as republican to vote against president trump.- president trump. that is correct but _ president trump. that is correct but also - president trump. that is correct but also good - president trump. that is l correct but also good news president trump. that is - correct but also good news for her effort to say she is the best general election candidate. if you were in iowa that helps you go forward into the republican primary does not make you president. the biggest argument as she is more likely than in of the other candidates to defeatjoe biden in november and based on the polling she is showing and results she is showing and results she is showing that case is being made she does best in those areas that republicans need to win to beatjoe biden. that republicans need to win to beat joe biden.— beat joe biden. that argument would hold _ beat joe biden. that argument would hold for— beat joe biden. that argument would hold for new _ beat joe biden. that argument would hold for new hampshire| would hold for new hampshire where the focus will move tomorrow with there is a high number of independence there? one of the things is iowa makes a statement new hampshire makes a statement new hampshire makes a difference and i think she is going to be reasonably happy with the results although i do know she was hoping she would

have some space between her and ron desantis, doesn't look so with the first votes coming in. from the votes we are seeing coming in and it is a small amount would be the end of the road a3? amount would be the end of the road 43? �* u, , amount would be the end of the road 43? �* u, , , amount would be the end of the road43? �* , , road 43? because he is so funded- — road 43? because he is so funded- -- _ road 43? because he is so funded. -- vivek- road 43? because he is so - funded. -- vivek ramaswamy. i funded. —— vivek ramaswamy. i did see him yesterday and talked to him. i do not believe he will pull out he does not depend on other donors. he is in this to send a message not just to campaign. i think he stays at least until you hampshire.— stays at least until you hampshire. stays at least until you hamshire. ., , hampshire. some of the counties where donald _ hampshire. some of the counties where donald trump _ hampshire. some of the counties where donald trump has - hampshire. some of the counties where donald trump has done i where donald trump has done especially well in iowa early votes we see 60 — 70% we see vivek ramaswamy doing very well better than ron desantis and nikki haley, is there an argument he might be part of trump movement, moving forward, vice president or something of that? �* , ., vice president or something of that? �* , . , ., vice president or something of that? �*, ., ., ., ., that? it's a smart observation because it _ that? it's a smart observation

because it is _ that? it's a smart observation because it is clear _ that? it's a smart observation because it is clear if _ that? it's a smart observation because it is clear if vivek - because it is clear if vivek ramaswamy was not in this race his votes would go to donald trump, and i saw t—shirts been distributed today protect trump and vote for vivek ramaswamy. but still seven, eight 9% is not a significant amount. if you should drop out it is good news for donald trump. looking at ron desantis, _ news for donald trump. looking at ron desantis, the _ news for donald trump. looking at ron desantis, the governor. at ron desantis, the governor of florida heading to south carolina first thing in the morning and back to new hampshire tomorrow night, we have nevada to go. is the logic you can understand on how he is manoeuvring himself?— manoeuvring himself? good question. — manoeuvring himself? good question. he _ manoeuvring himself? good question, he will— manoeuvring himself? good question, he will have - manoeuvring himself? good question, he will have the i question, he will have the toughest explanation over the next 24 hours, people should donate for him whether they should volunteer for him whether he should go forward, does look like he will be in second place but not a strong second place but not a strong second place but not a strong second place finish and in the end, it's about money, about volunteers and message. and i think nikki haley has the

stronger case in those three going forward. of course, the real story tonight is the massive victory of donald trump. is massive victory of donald trum -. , ., massive victory of donald trum. , ., . trump. is it an academic conversation _ trump. is it an academic conversation about - trump. is it an academic conversation about who | trump. is it an academic- conversation about who come second looking at that victory? not necessarily because you hampshire can throw every into the wind, and the point you made earlier you hampshire allows independent to vote because there was no real democratic primary they will move into the republican primary and nikki haley gets the lion �*s share of independent votes. immigration was number one, followed by economy, followed by values, having the same values as the candidates. are user prices immigration up there? ., , , ., there? no, because i hear it every day- — there? no, because i hear it every day- l— there? no, because i hear it every day. i see _ there? no, because i hear it every day. i see it— there? no, because i hear it every day. i see it in - there? no, because i hear it every day. i see it in my - every day. i see it in my polling. i want to correct for the viewers it is not the economy, it is affordability. they may see the economy but in

america, just as in the uk, people cannot afford food, fuel, housing, healthcare. the candidate that is the bestjob at communicating, addressing affordability, it matters so much to voters in new hampshire. iowa voters are value voters and new hampshire is economic. that is why affordability will determine who wins a new hampshire. another interesting point was the majority of those who voted for donald trump tonight in those caucuses, of those who are survey, the majority of them said they thought thatjoe biden had not one the 2020 election. will that be a problem in this campaign? it problem in this campaign? it will be a problem in the general election. trump will continue to say that i will continue to say that i will continue to say that i will continue to fire up the base, he has a high turnout. i went to eight caucuses tonight and every single one, all of the trump voters 100% are definitely voting for him when he walked to the door. for nikki haley and ron desantis, it was not definite. they are

willing to hear other arguments. the trump base is a heart of stone, i know that they will participate no matter what the weather, no matter what the weather, no matter what the weather, no matter what the challenge. however, if that becomes a focal point in the general election, it will be to donald trump's detriment. we do not have turnout figures yet as to whether the snow and those freezing temperatures outside will have an impact, but it seems that for a race that appeared to be a done deal, voters are engaged and fired up by its?— fired up by its? they are participating _ fired up by its? they are participating and - fired up by its? they are - participating and republicans they have had enough of the last three years and they want something different. democrats, they are hoping the republicans might nominate someone other than trump, i think the next nine months will be very difficult for a lot of people. this was a negative campaign, a vicious campaign, personal attacks, all the way through. my attacks, all the way through. my projection is it will get even worse. most of your

viewers are uk residents, do not follow us. you will have your election are probably in october, do not echo what we do in november, because it is not good for your country. we in november, because it is not good for your country.- good for your country. we do broadcast — good for your country. we do broadcast around _ good for your country. we do broadcast around the - good for your country. we do broadcast around the world, | broadcast around the world, we're something like half of the world is voting in elections this year. it the world is voting in elections this year. it is all u . elections this year. it is all u- for elections this year. it is all up for grabs _ elections this year. it is all up for grabs all— elections this year. it is all up for grabs all over. - elections this year. it is all up for grabs all over. on . up for grabs all over. on behalf of the us, i apologise for what you have just seen. we for what you have 'ust seen. we will leave it h for what you have just seen. we will leave it there for the moment. thank you forjoining us. back over to you in the studio. an interesting analysis there. let's talk about it with there. let's talk about it with the panel. margaret, you made notes there. what are you thinking? i notes there. what are you thinking?— notes there. what are you thinkin: ? . , . thinking? i was agreeing with him and a — thinking? i was agreeing with him and a few— thinking? i was agreeing with him and a few key _ thinking? i was agreeing with him and a few key points - thinking? i was agreeing with him and a few key points and i him and a few key points and they are making me think of numbers they wanted to scribble down. semi— different ways to slice these early results. one way to do what is looking at the support for donald trump plus his support for ron desantis plus vivek ramaswamy because if you draw a circle

around them, you get similar ideas and language, just different candidates. you add them together, it is 80% of the republican in this iowa contest. if you look as a contest. if you look as a contest not the first or second but as a contest for ideas, it is 80% want the hard right, the far—right argument at 20% want something that aligns well with the old republican party, peace through strength, rule of law, economic, tying the economy to the party. it is a different republican party, at least in this iowa contest and it shows the other one i was thinking is if i was the biden campaign, i would start hitting up independence right away. you will need all the independent voters you can get, no matter where this ends up, as a donald trump versusjoe biden rematch or some wild chance became nikki haley's race. joe biden wanted more independence. 1

wanted more independence. i cannot believe i didn't see it. brian, sorry, you are on the screen so my right eye mystery. you are joining screen so my right eye mystery. you arejoining in ice. he served as the communications director from served as the communications directorfrom 2016— served as the communications director from 2016— 2017. now in the consulting firm mercury. looking at what we have seen, a message from donald trump, saying thank you iowa, i love you all, from donald trump. this has got to be a riding high moments for him? thank you for havin: high moments for him? thank you for having me _ high moments for him? thank you for having me to _ high moments for him? thank you for having me to know. _ for having me to know. absolutely that moment, if you think months ago, the media was writing his obituary. after difficult midterms, the rise of ron desantis, the party was moving beyond donald trump stop what we have seen in the last year, when it comes to politics in the us, nobody is better than donald trump, because he turn the entire narrative around and we now talk about whether he will get 50%. in 14

months we have talked about his political obituary area today we write about him at doing something historic that has never happened in american politics. a landslide of this nature. it is amazing and a good day for president trump and his campaign team that kept him going to the finish line. let me follow up on that nasty about who is battling for second place here between nikki haley and ron desantis. we have these polls that have been sent to us from our us partner cbs news and it was interesting that in his battle for second place, voters who were asked about these candidates that 43% was most important of them was a candidate who shared their values, 31% saying people — someone who fights for people like me. what do you make of that? ,, . ., like me. what do you make of that? ,, _, , that? second place never matters _ that? second place never matters in _ that? second place never matters in american - that? second place never- matters in american politics. it is good we are putting a lot of attention to second place but at the end of the day when the vote is done, no—one will remember who came in second place. here is what i will say.

four days ago are looking nikki haley will come in second but it will be a huge defeat to ron desantis, his political career, desa ntis, his political career, on desantis, his political career, on iowa. now looks they ron desantis will actually come in second place. if we were stepping back, ithink second place. if we were stepping back, i think the govenor bailey strategic mistake by saying they will go to south carolina because if they coming out of iowa they have a narrative they can call themselves to come back here. four days ago we talked about ron desantis coming in third enable a psyche will be second. but as they come back but because he made the decision to leave new hampshire and escape the media scrutiny for a week or even two weeks ago to south carolina, no—one will care. what you think of that? looking at the numbers that we are seen coming in from cbs, one of the questions that was not at the top of the list was beating joe biden in november. it seems like donald trump will be there candidate regardless of whether general election will be a

tough race or not?- general election will be a tough race or not? the general election, tough race or not? the general election. no — tough race or not? the general election, no matter— tough race or not? the general election, no matter who - tough race or not? the general election, no matter who the i election, no matter who the republican nominee will be, republican nominee will he, would — republican nominee will he, would be a tough election. i do believe — would be a tough election. i do believe other candidates besides president trump would properlv— besides president trump would properly beatjoe biden more easily— properly beatjoe biden more easily but right now i think donald _ easily but right now i think donald trump is leading in most of the _ donald trump is leading in most of the polls in the seas that will matter when it comes to the election. today could be the election. today could be the day— the election. today could be the day where donald trump begins — the day where donald trump begins his run towards the republican nomination and have it sewn— republican nomination and have it sewn up— republican nomination and have it sewn up like he did as an incumbent in 2020. we have less - we _ incumbent in 2020. we have less - we have — incumbent in 2020. we have less - we have a — incumbent in 2020. we have less — we have a few days before new hampshire — — we have a few days before new hampshire to determine whether or not— hampshire to determine whether or not those independent voters will look— or not those independent voters will look at where nikki haley places — will look at where nikki haley places tonight and determine whether or not she will be able to provide _ whether or not she will be able to provide a challenge and could _ to provide a challenge and could give her momentum going into her— could give her momentum going into her homestay.— into her homestay. let's get our into her homestay. let's get your thoughts _ into her homestay. let's get your thoughts on _ into her homestay. let's get your thoughts on this - into her homestay. let's get your thoughts on this as - into her homestay. let's get l your thoughts on this as well? the iowa caucus—goers participants do not reflect the average american voter and they don't even reflect the average

republican. they see 56% of iowa caucus—goers watch the first debate and i am not sure that number is reflected if you look at your average republican voter or average american. a lot of credence is given to this iowa caucus but these folks are super users of the political system, folks are super users of the politicalsystem, if folks are super users of the political system, if you will. people who are plugged in, who are the base of the republican party, enthusiastic enough to whether the storm, literally, to show up and participate in these caucuses that take hours do not like showing up in a pole where it takes you 15 minutes to fill out your ballot and go on your way. this is an active participant, and it is different set of voters here. it is important that you do not take too much and paint the rest of the republican party for the american voter from the

iowa caucus. for the american voter from the iowa caucus-— iowa caucus. certainly a marker for the start _ iowa caucus. certainly a marker for the start of _ iowa caucus. certainly a marker for the start of this _ iowa caucus. certainly a marker for the start of this race - iowa caucus. certainly a marker for the start of this race was - for the start of this race was something just to be washed and then we look at the rest of the country. a lot more to talk about what we would take a quick break and then head back to iowa for the very latest. stay with us. hello. this week is certainly shaping up to bring some of the coldest and snowiest weather of the winter so far. we started the week on monday in the grip of this arctic air. cold northerly winds feeding frequent wintry showers, especially into northern, eastern, and some western parts of the uk. tuesday remains cold — snow and ice will cause problems for some. but a slight shift in the wind direction, more of a west or northwesterly wind, so that means not as many showers across eastern parts, more showers out towards the west. and then, this little frontal system here, this is going to generate a mix of rain, sleet and snow across the northern half of the uk. ice as we move

through the morning, that could cause some quite poor travelling conditions. and then, we will see frequent snow showers in northern scotland. this area of snowfall in central and southern scotland, this could bring snow to quite low levels. for northern ireland and for northern england, at low levels, it may be that we see some rain and some sleet mixing in — most of the significant snow over high ground — but there could be some travel disruption, say, over the high—level routes in the pennines. to the south of that, well, mostly dry with some spells of crisp winter sunshine. maybe not quite as cold in southern counties of england or south wales, whereas parts of scotland will stay below freezing all day long. and in scotland, we'll see further snowfall during tuesday evening. it could cause some disruption for the rush hour. mix of rain, sleet, and snow across parts of northern england into wales. the odd snow shower pushing down across the midlands. a very, very cold night indeed, some places likely to get to —10 in the highlands. now for wednesday, we're keeping a close eye on this area of low pressure, which is moving its way in towards france, but it mayjust graze this weather system close enough to southern counties

of england to bring the risk of a bit of light sleet and snow here. we'll keep an eye on that one for you. the channel islands seeing rain, maybe something wintry mixing in. elsewhere, sunny spells, a scattering of wintry showers, a very cold—feeling day. many places around or, perhaps in some spots, below freezing even through the afternoon. now that weather system moves away. thursday will bring further snow showers. high pressure builds in for friday, so it is a drier end to the week for many. and then, we start to develop a westerly wind. atlantic weather systems will bring wind and rain, and something milder as we head into the weekend, so this cold spell may not last all that long.

hello. iam i am caitriona perry and this is bbc news coming to you live from des moines in iowa. it's a runaway victory for former president donald trump in iowa, but we are keeping a close eye on the race for second place. the votes are still being counted as former south carolina governor nikki haley and current florida governor ron desantis battles for runner—up in order to give their campaigns a boost. we'll have the latest results as they come in.

joining me now is our very own carl nasman. all of the candidates are holding watch parties this evening, ready to make speak later on when the results become clearer. what is the latest from there? let become clearer. what is the latest from there?— become clearer. what is the latest from there? let me paint ou a latest from there? let me paint you a picture — latest from there? let me paint you a picture here. _ latest from there? let me paint you a picture here. we - latest from there? let me paint you a picture here. we can - latest from there? let me paint you a picture here. we can see| you a picture here. we can see over my shoulder a large room of ron desantis supporters and volunteers, people who have been working on this campaign for many months now. this campaign has gone all in on iowa, lot of resources, the governor himself visiting all 99 counties. the mood here is angry. there is a lot of frustration over what they say is the media calling this race or projecting a big three four donald trump in their minds too early. i spoke with two different precinct candidates, the surrogates or the desantis campaign who go out of the

caucus sites and they said they were at a site nearby in iowa when the projections came out before any voice had actually been cast within the room. they said that they could see on their phone that the alert had come in saying that donald trump would be always projected to be the winner iowa and they were afraid that would affect any subsequent voting. if somebody knows the winner, they might most likely be voting for one of the candidates. there is frustration and anger and we are still to hear from the governor himself. embers of the campaign, —— members. he says it is overly outrageous that the media would participate in what he calls election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of iowans even had a chance to vote and that is what i heard described by some of these volunteers and members of the ron desantis campaign. beyond

that, there still is a lot of confidence in this room that governor ron desantis will indeed finish in second place tonight. we know many votes are still being counted potentially still being counted potentially still being counted potentially still being cast, everyone here are pointing to what has been a very impressive and very act of round games in iowa, really traversing the entire state. i was at a rally with governor desantis last night and you could feel the energy in the room, it was a packed house, standing room only. we saw different politicians supporting including the iowa governor reynolds, they feel the campaign feels that he has the campaign feels that he has the momentum, he has been battling with nikki haley for many weeks and months now and there is a feeling in this room that despite that frustration, those accusations covering, coming from the desantis campaign, there is a very good chance that ron desantis will be coming up on the stage later

tonight as the second place finisher in iowa. we will wait to see what happens a little later. carl azman at the ron desantis watch party, thank you for bringing us up today. i'm joined now by tim head. he is executive director at the faith and freedom coalition. thank you forjoining us on bbc news. i know you are neutral with the coalition, you don't endorse anyone, but looking at what we have seen so far and not all of the reasons are reported, it looks like quite a definitive victory for donald trump. what you make of that? the races within races going on right now, so clearly there are four or five carveout states, early stage before the big super tuesday race in march and tonight is definitely a clear win, avery is positive when the former president, but the race within the races if you will is kind of who will emerge between nikki haley and ron desantis as

the alternative to trump if you will. trump is hovering around the 50%, a touch over. new results just bring the 50%, a touch over. new resultsjust bring him the 50%, a touch over. new results just bring him a touch under 50% so the question is, if one of these two emerges from this first race in iowa and goes to new hampshire, could there be a consolidation in the alternative lane to donald trump? there is pretty meaningful suspense to be had even though you are looking at 28% win for team donald trump. when we look at the pole that was done on the caucus —goers as they went on their way in, donald trump seems to have been very successful with evangelical voters, voters who really said they have the same conservative values that he did. is it surprising to you? he seems built on support he had deviously?— had deviously? certainly not surprising- _ had deviously? certainly not surprising. when _ had deviously? certainly not surprising. when he - had deviously? certainly not surprising. when he was - had deviously? certainly not| surprising. when he was first the nominee in 2016 a lot of people were... a lot of evangelical voters were taking him on his word when he said campaign promises. in his four

years of the oval office, he delivered notjust moderately but resoundingly for people of faith in america on issues related to the supreme court, to abortion —related policies, marriage and family, even israel related policy and things people care about so he has a strong record, certainly governor desantis and hayley have strong records but you would say the bond and between donald trump and his voters seems to be strengthening in some ways. seems to be strengthening in some ways-— seems to be strengthening in some ways. seems to be strengthening in some wa s. ~ , ., some ways. when people look at the three judges _ some ways. when people look at the three judges in _ some ways. when people look at the three judges in the _ some ways. when people look at the three judges in the supreme | the three judges in the supreme court, rolling back roe v wade, they focus just on those issues and maybe look beyond other parts of his personality and his behaviour that they may be his behaviour that they may he don't like so much. {line his behaviour that they may be don't like so much.— don't like so much. one of the kind of things _ don't like so much. one of the kind of things in _ don't like so much. one of the kind of things in these - kind of things in these holdings that are done also reflect the desire for a lot of faith —based voters for somebody to fight for them, and somebody to fight for them, and so it is not often that you

find genteel sort of differential fighting. find genteel sort of differentialfighting. we find genteel sort of differential fighting. we want people who will certainly stand for the values and fight for the values that we believe in and we know that washington, dc and we know that washington, dc and frankly sometimes venues around the world on always rolling up the red carpet for some of these policies. it is not overly surprised to find sometimes a bit of a brash personality author was able to deliver on sometimes controversy and policies. it can sometimes go hand—in—hand. you are from texas. do you think a very similar situation can arise for donald trump there? , ., ., , there? the southeast in the midwest. — there? the southeast in the midwest, including - there? the southeast in the midwest, including the - midwest, including the southwestern texas, the lion's share of the race, the republican voting base remain very faith based, mass attending catholics, so his bond, like wejust attending catholics, so his bond, like we just talked about, is strong, remains a stronger and, frankly, the other element i think is somewhat talked about but maybe unappreciated is as these

justice department and local jurisdictions continue to prosecute him, a lot of that constituency that may find his personality offensive also feel actually more synthetic towards him as if the system continues to attack him. so there are new dynamics emerging in 2024 that even up—to—date trump is not necessarily enjoying. 50 even up-to-date trump is not necessarily enjoying.- necessarily en'oying. so in this necessarily enjoying. so in this campaign, _ necessarily enjoying. so in this campaign, he - necessarily enjoying. so in this campaign, he has - necessarily enjoying. so in this campaign, he has to l necessarily enjoying. so in - this campaign, he has to spend a lot of time in court, the force sets of criminal charges, various other legal cases that he faces, do you think that will play quite well for him with evangelical voters? abs, will play quite well for him with evangelical voters? a lot ofthe with evangelical voters? a lot of the political _ with evangelical voters? a lot of the political opponents - with evangelical voters? lot of the political opponents saw it as an opportunity to prosecute him legally and prosecute him legally and prosecute him legally and prosecute him in the court of public opinion, but for a lot, his staunch supporters, it makes them even more supportive of him, than people who may sit on the fence of it for him and in many ways when you see an entire legal system really

sailing in an individual person, may be a person, it can actually make them look more synthetic instead of sort of. those individuals in the justice system would say they are pursuing the law and doing so within all the rigours of the law and systems that do exist in this country. indeed. it is one _ exist in this country. indeed. it is one of— exist in this country. indeed. it is one of the _ exist in this country. indeed. it is one of the beauties - exist in this country. indeed. it is one of the beauties of. it is one of the beauties of prosecuting in the court of public opinion, the onlookers from, say, texas that are looking at prosecutors in new york, atlanta, georgia, are free to make up their own mind and the potential voters between some of these prosecutions.— between some of these prosecutions. between some of these rosecutions. , . prosecutions. indeed they are free to make _ prosecutions. indeed they are free to make up _ prosecutions. indeed they are free to make up their - prosecutions. indeed they are free to make up their mind. l free to make up their mind. that is democracy. thank you forjoining us on bbc news. back to you in dc. events unfolding across the world are having an impact on the republican presidential election here in the us. our helena humphrey explains

how voters are responding, and the candidates. foreign policy positions aren't traditionally a ticket to the white house, but it is a tense time on the world stage. 2024 might look a little different so let's take a look at some of those positions and some of the concerns as well on voters' mines. you can see when it comes to top of mind here, the israel—gaza war, 57% of likely iowa gop caucus —goers saying to them that is extremely important. where do the leading candidates stand then on these range of fault policy —— foreign—policy issues? looking at donald trump, putting his support behind israel, but not before attracting some criticism first either. he had said in the wake of the october seven attacks that very smart. remember, of course, hezbollah supports hamas. he has since brought the comments back and express his full support for

israel. when it comes to nikki haley, she is someone very much trying to flex her foreign—policy muscle on the debate stage after all, she is the former us ambassador to the united nations, and she was very unequivocal with her position on israel, saying the country would have whatever they need, whenever they need it all in a bid to eliminating hamas, notjust weakening them. when it comes to ron desantis, he has also voiced full support for israel and had this to say about palestinians, we cannot accept people from gaza into this country as refugees. also making it something of a domestic issue as well. interestingly, when we get to ukraine that is when we start to see the divergence of opinion between the candidates. looking at what donald trump had to say. important to stress here, we don't know how he intends to do that. he didn't set out a plan for that. also some concerns that he could try to take the united states out of nato based

on comments in the past as well. nikki haley has voiced full support for ukraine, saying... she had also framed this as something of a x essential threat to other european particular eastern european countries as well. ron desantis, however, also desa ntis, however, also courting desantis, however, also courting some controversy when initially he said on the debate stage... he has since also backtracked on those comments, but he still says that he wouldn't board any further military aid for ukraine, reflecting that debate in congress right now. what we notice with all of these three candidates when it comes to china, all of them saying this is the biggest priority and the biggest threat for the united states on the world stage right now. donald trump having been president in 2016, we know his record on china, imposed

tariffs on the country are now taking it one step further, saying he plans to decouple those two economies. nikki haley, for her part, had some for donald trump's record on china. that had emboldened the country essentially under his presidency. and instead, she has proposed... and linking this to the fentanyl epidemic in this country. china exports the precursor chemicals to the synthetic opioid which then come in via mexico to this country, huge killer of course of young people in this country, so also a domestic issue. ron desantis has cost beijing, saying that in fact beijing, saying that in fact beijing is the biggest threat to the united states since the soviet union during the cold war. his proposition is to reorient us foreign policy to prioritise china and security

in the indo pacific region. what you really start to notice with all of these foreign—policy positions is that this is where we are starting to see the light, the differences between these leading republican presidential candidates and a difference, an evolution from traditional hawkish republican foreign—policy and then the rise of isolationist policy as well. . ., rise of isolationist policy as well. ., ~ , ., ., rise of isolationist policy as well. ., ~ ., well. thank you for those really interesting - really interesting foreign—policy aspects of this race as well. congresswoman, i want to start with you. we saw that china really has become a really important issue for voters on both sides of the aisle. there seems to be one that each candidate has benefited from, taking the really tough on china stance. in washington, both sides are trying to outcompete each other to be more hawkish on china than the other and it has been a political cudgel used by both

parties. if you notice the ron desantis attack as on nikki haley, they are about being soft on china. if you look at the ads in a general election, it is public and is accusing the progress of being soft on china, affiliated with socialism and communism, trying to make that connection. it has created a situation in washington where it is almost a blind pursuit of an entire china policy. the reality is for both parties, they have embarked upon pretty severe protectionist policies, the trump tariffs they went in place when not lifted by the biden administration and more restrictions have been put in place. there is not a ton of difference between the democrats and republicans on that issue. democrats and republicans on that issue-— that issue. what is your thought. _ that issue. what is your | thought, congressman? that issue. what is your i thought, congressman? i that issue. what is your - thought, congressman? i agree with everything _ thought, congressman? i agree with everything stephanie - thought, congressman? i agree with everything stephanie said. | with everything stephanie said. we witnessed during the trump administration. think about it, i represent a district in the midwest, iowa is in the

midwest. who is most hurt by tariffs — midwest. who is most hurt by tariffs against china? it is our— tariffs against china? it is our agricultural sector. the farmers— our agricultural sector. the farmers in my district all said they— farmers in my district all said they hated tariffs but they trusted that trump was doing the right— trusted that trump was doing the right thing. in the end, we renegotiated and it was better for american agriculture. we had — for american agriculture. we had a — for american agriculture. we had a china trade deal, bilateral trade deal, that was better— bilateral trade deal, that was better for the american farmer after— better for the american farmer after the — better for the american farmer after the proper administration negotiated. sits after the proper administration negotiated-— negotiated. as you see joe biden distinguish - negotiated. as you see joe biden distinguish himself l negotiated. as you see joe - biden distinguish himself from trump, china is not one of those. the biden administration kept a lot in place. what is interesting is you see both parties seem tough on china, but this rift around how tough on russia to be, as if you could decouple the two. as if russia has no bearing on china. it is a weird split in policy. the one consistency across all

candidates and both parties is the idea of strong versus weak, especially in the gop base. not even about specific policy are just the words strong and a week, a consistent reason why you have seen donald trump ahead in a gop polling is because republican based voters believe he is strong, stronger, the strongest, and these are words in adjectives and ideas that they really respond to. brian, let's bring you win, you were smiling there. the adjectives and superlatives on how the us is facing china and other countries. is that what voters care about, less than the actual conflict or issue itself? ~ , itself? absolutely right. voters want _ itself? absolutely right. voters want strength, l itself? absolutely right. - voters want strength, strength and leadership, the phrase we used to using 2016 is a does not matter if you are wrong as long as are strong. it worked. that is where we are today.

voters look for this wrong image. especially a lead on the international stage, and that is why president trumbull always have the edge, he will have a perception in the view of strength as opposed to nikki haley or ron desantis, trump has a ready proven his strength in the international stage. talking about what they intend to do and donald trump discussed by he did. we are lookin: discussed by he did. we are looking at — discussed by he did. we are looking at the _ discussed by he did. we are looking at the screens - discussed by he did. we are i looking at the screens because we are waiting for the former president. he is expected to speak shortly in iowa, so we will go to them on the to a bit of what he has to say. those words are strong and weak, does not seem to apply as much. these are the images we are waiting for. it is a central play as much when it comes to the us position towards russia right now. that has changed over the past year. what he think that is? i over the past year. what he think that is?— think that is? i think the former president - think that is? i think the former president has . think that is? i think the - former president has developed a different kind of relationship with russia. that

has affected the way he has looked at ukraine and it has bled into the way the republican party has thought about ukraine funding. when the war started, about ukraine funding. when the warstarted, it about ukraine funding. when the war started, it was everybody standing up a democracy, we had three bipartisan votes in support of ukraine, and the support of ukraine, and the support has now eroded over time and now wheezing trouble in trying to protect a democracy and continue support for ukraine. it is unfortunate because so much happens with the tens of thousands of voters and a handful of americans swing states will have a significant impact on the world. ~ . , significant impact on the world. ., , , ., world. what is your sense of this? how— world. what is your sense of this? how important - world. what is your sense of this? how important is - world. what is your sense of this? how important is it - this? how important is it actually four voters when you go to these districts and say this is not a question of the us are sending money to ukraine, this is a question of retracting democracy? is a message they get through to voters today?—

voters today? words matter. unfortunately, _ voters today? words matter. unfortunately, the _ voters today? words matter. unfortunately, the phrase i unfortunately, the phrase protecting democracy can meet a wide _ protecting democracy can meet a wide range of things right now for the — wide range of things right now for the usa. wide range of things right now forthe usa. i wide range of things right now forthe usa. lam wide range of things right now for the usa. i am glad you mention— for the usa. i am glad you mention the word district. that, _ mention the word district. that, to _ mention the word district. that, to me, is a driving force right— that, to me, is a driving force right now— that, to me, is a driving force right now as to why there is opposition within the republican party to standing with — republican party to standing with ukraine and fighting against vladimir putin, something i support. i could not imagine, but because most republican districts right now in the — republican districts right now in the us house are so gerrymandered to be pro— republican and so far—right, they— republican and so far—right, they are _ republican and so far—right, they are more worried about issues — they are more worried about issues that matter domestically. it starts with the same issue that pulled the highest — the same issue that pulled the highest in iowa, the water crisis _ highest in iowa, the water crisis. you fix that, and i believe _ crisis. you fix that, and i believe most republicans will start — believe most republicans will start to — believe most republicans will start to say yes, let's look at the affairs. —— a border

crisis _ the affairs. -- a border crisis. ., the affairs. -- a border crisis-— the affairs. -- a border crisis. foreign affairs is complicated. _ crisis. foreign affairs is complicated. there - crisis. foreign affairs is complicated. there are i crisis. foreign affairs is i complicated. there are so crisis. foreign affairs is - complicated. there are so many layers to focus on, so when everything is a focus unless you are facing the wall. we have been hit facing the war with russia and in the face of the war in the middle east. the problem with ukraine and the russian war is ukraine has lost. the counteroffensive has failed. they are not getting funding from europe or the us, so republican policymakers are looking at that and seeing it as the investment, is it worth it? they have dedicated $100 billion to ukraine aid, military, civil services, all these things, and the counteroffensive failed. how much is expected the american people to continue to prop up ukraine knowing it is very failed is first counteroffensive and on the way to fail a second? it is nuanced and american voters, it is that they don't understand, the just not as interested as

international voters. the facts are clear, i don't think the districts are gerrymandered to be pro— russia. that is what the former congressman stated. the districts are gerrymandered, republicans and democrats and they look at the economic value of the war with ukraine and the long—term effects which can ultimately lead to an engagement with russia and it is not worth the hunt. . , . russia and it is not worth the hunt. ., , ., , hunt. that is an interesting oint. hunt. that is an interesting point- we _ hunt. that is an interesting point. we are _ hunt. that is an interesting point. we are deep - hunt. that is an interesting point. we are deep in - hunt. that is an interesting point. we are deep in our l hunt. that is an interesting | point. we are deep in our to iowa because we are expecting donald trump to take the stage at any moment. we will listen to some of the music in the crowd noise is there. let's go to iowa and listen in. music plays

chanting music plays

cheering

chanting i want to thank everybody. this has been a period of time, most importantly, we want to thank the great people of iowa, thank you. what a turner, what a crowd, and i really think this is time now for everybody, our country, to come together. we want to come together, whether republican or democrat, liberal or conservative, it will be so nice if we could come together and straighten out the world is straight out the problems and all of the debt and destruction we are witnessing. it has practically never been like this. it is so important. we will come together, it will happen soon. i want to thank

some of the great people, we have so many senators, we will be here all my inevitable get angry at me, but the senators, the congressmen, washington, they came down from all different states and i want to thank you all very much. i want to congratulate ron and nikki for having a good time together, we are all having a good time together. i think they both did very well. we don't even know what the outcome of second place is. congratulations. she is terrific. you will be a great senator. i also want to congratulate vivek ramaswamy because he did a hell of a job.

he came from zero and he has always 8%, and that is an amazing job. very smart people, very capable people. most importantly, i want to thank my incredible wife, the first lady, the former first lady. more importantly, i want to thank her, incredible, beautiful mother who passed away a few days ago. she is way up away a few days ago. she is way up there, she is looking down as she is so proud of us. i want to say to her, you are special, one of the most special, one of the most special people i have ever known. that was a tough period of time for the family. she is amazing. i want to thank what she has done for ourfamily amazing. i want to thank what she has done for our family and her husband, who was home right now and very lonely. he is a lonely man but he will be ok. great people. great parents to

all of us, really. also baron, taking care of him. i want to thank my family generally. they have worked so hard and they have worked so hard and they have taken so much abuse to being good people. they have been working so hard. they have to do it all. they have been working so hard. i know that your home and they are watching and i know that baron is watching. he said he likes soccer. at your heart, i like basketball better, but sometimes you cannot talk them into everything. he is a special boy. the whole family is incredible. my sister, elizabeth, who is the biggest

fan. an incredible person. always supportive, we love her so much. we have a woman who took a big chance. we have supported everybody, the congress, the senators. probably 50, 50 5% of the senators are now they all calling and see me want to endorse you. same thing with the congress men and women, we have a tremendous, much more than anyone who has ever had in this position, and we love them, they are great. one woman in iowa who really stepped up was your attorney general. she really stepped up.

she stepped up. she will be a governor sunday, i predict. —— someday. she will walk away from the pack and she had tremendous courage and it was not easy. in some states, it is easy and in others it is difficult.— easy and in others it is difficult. ~ ., easy and in others it is difficult. ., ., difficult. we are looking at donald trump _ difficult. we are looking at donald trump speaking i difficult. we are looking at donald trump speaking in | difficult. we are looking at - donald trump speaking in iowa we have had a resounding victory. let's continue listening. a state senator, brad, he is the most handsome guy... he had to drive from his caucus location. you made it! applause well, tell you, i had to do a tv interview, the reason i was

late _ tv interview, the reason i was late was— tv interview, the reason i was late was because of that. isn't he awesome? all late was because of that. isn't he awesome?— late was because of that. isn't he awesome? all right, guys. we are now going _ he awesome? all right, guys. we are now going to _ he awesome? all right, guys. we are now going to speak— he awesome? all right, guys. we are now going to speak to - he awesome? all right, guys. we are now going to speak to our - are now going to speak to our panel about what we have been watching here. you are looking at donald trump speaking there are just after we have seen the results of course that he has had a resounding victory, as we said, there in iowa. see his family on stage, many of his supporters there in the audience as well. i want to get your take on what we are seeing. we haven't seen much yet on policy, but we did see donald trump say the other candidates, nikki haley, ron desantis, with a good job. he desantis, with a good 'ob. he said the desantis, with a good job. he: said they did a good job, they are all having a good time together. what we emily project in these early moments of this speech is a gracious magnanimous attitude of somebody who is in their own mind, so clearly the front runner that he can afford to say all of these very nice

things to people. we have seen