this is bbc news. we will have the headlines for you at the top of the hour, which is straight after this programme. hello, everybody! a very warm welcome to talking business weekly with me, aaron heslehurst. let's go and take a look at what's on the show. shipping gets stuck in the slow lane. how much damage will be caused by the red sea attacks force in global trade to take the long way around? the global economy relies on all our stuff being moved across the oceans. but, are 150 years of progress being undone by an unprecedented threat to shipping? i'm going to be discussing all of that with these two, there they are. the big boss of the world second—biggest shipping company, denmark's maersk, who tells me that consumers are already feeling the effect with higher prices.

and the boss of the un's international maritime organisation, who will fill us in on what needs to be done to keep the oceans free for global trade. plus big bucks for the big stage — the man who runs the worlds biggest brewer, the giant behind budweiser, corona and stella tells us why he is spending hundreds of millions of bucks on the olympics and why he's not worrying about shipping delays. wherever yourjoining you from around the world, once again, a warm welcome to the show. you know, just when the global economy thought it was getting over at the shocks of the pandemic, russia's invasion of ukraine and the inflation that followed, up pops another major challenge. this time the shipping industry is quite literally under attack like never before, and it is causing growing disruption to the global economy. diversions and delays are threatening to push up prices once again. the crunch point is the red sea. it's a conduit to the suez canal which, since it opened more than 150 years ago, has boosted the global economy

by speeding up trade between europe and asia. we can't underestimate just how crucial this route is for companies big and small. including this family run gift business in the english city of leeds. literally 100% of the lines are delayed. scan that, mate. the difficulty what we have is that a valentine's day order is no good to a customer and a consumer on the 15th of february. the likes of tesla and volvo have had to pull some car production in europe as they wait for parts. and ikea says there are delays getting some product onto the shelves. those delays are growing because, despite us led air strikes trying to stop the attacks, which began in november, a growing number of vessels are being hit by missiles. the iran—backed houthi rebels in yemen who are responsible have also tried to board ships. even managing to take the car carrier, the galaxy leader. they are still holding

its crew hostage. they say the attacks are out of sympathy with palestinians suffering in gaza. so let's just take a look at why all of this is so important for our global economy. 90% of everything in your life, from the chair you're sitting to the banana you are eating, to the car you are driving to the clothes you are wearing into the tv that you are watching right now, it is all moved by c30% of all shipping containers were going to the suez canal, but depending on the final destination, going around africa can add anything from seven days to two weeks to a vessel's journey. and as you can see here, that means that shipping rates have soared in recent weeks. there is no surprise given the longerjourney can mean extra million dollars in fuel alone. plus more insurance and crew costs. that gets translated into higher prices for people for everything

from fuel, to medicine, to food, it's disrupting supply chains, and so it is having a real impact on people around the world in their daily lives. according to the number crunchers, that could mean global inflation goes up by half of 1% this year, just when it had been coming down. that would mean instead of the global economy growing 2.4% this year, it would just be 2%. pandemic aside, that would be the worst since the financial crisis 15 years ago. so, with all of that to consider, i've been catching up with the man whose ships move around one sixth of the world's containers. he's the big boss of the danish shipping giant, maersk. vincent clerc, a real pleasure having you on the show. vincent, let me start with this, because you sat back on the 2nd of january that you would suspend all sailings through the red sea because of the attacks on commercial shipping. so, just explain, vincent, what are those risks? correct me if i'm wrong, you have had at least two of your ships already attacked, right? yes, you are right.

actually, this is starting to unfold as a widening of the conflict that we are seeing in the middle east already in the month of december. we had a first wave of attack, and one of our ships at the time was already under attack. we suspended temporarily that transit in their following the attacks, and then following some interaction with operation prosperity guardian, led by the us navy, we felt that we had the guarantees that we needed in order to guarantee safe passage for our crew, for our ships and for our customers cargo. and as we took this on, some of the ships went through and the maersk ship was attacked. it was attacked actually outside the zone that was defined previously as the danger zone for attack, and it was attacked with a new m0, new weapon systems by the houthis. and that basically redefined the level of threat and risks that we were faced with. and in the face of this change, we have had to suspend transit again and reassess the situation. and vincent, we are already seeing

an international coalition of warships led by the us, trying — but not really succeeding — to protect your ships and those of your competitors. what more can they do to help you? i'm just kind of wondering, vincent, what is it going to take to make you feel safe again? the first is to relay call on the international community to really mobilise around us. you have about 30% of global trade that transits through these routes. this is one of the most important arteries of global trade, and having to re—route all of this cargo now south of the cape of good hope is going to create significant disruptions to the global supply chain for the duration in which we have to do that and probably a few months more as we have to get back to normal. so we need to see, i think, a strong mobilisation. the other thing is that the level of threat is actually evolving.

and so for the coalition that is trying to put in place this safe passage, they need to constantly reassess the level of protection and what they need to deploy in terms of both infrastructure but also the zone that they need to protect and the type of threat they need to be able to answer to. they need to constantly reassess this because this has been morphing repeatedly. avoiding the red sea means having to go, of course, the long way around southern africa, which can add one to two weeksjourney time. and one of those consequences, vincent, is it means that ships are tied up longer. they are unable to get on with their nextjourney. how much does not damage the capacity of the global

is being impacted by this, hence the consequences and the need for quick mobilisation to have the situation resolved. we don't really see another solution right now, down to sailing through the cape of good hope. we have ships that are being shot at, we have colleagues that are at risk when this happens, and we can simply notjustify sailing to these danger zones the way that the situation is right now.

actually, shipping prices have shot up as a result because of an anticipation of congestion and fear of lacking capacity in the short run. so you see already some of the costs that secretary blinken is talking about is starting to percolate all the way down to the end consumer, which i think in these times of inflation is really something that we need to try to avoid. you know, some critics, they will say that you and your vitals are very profitable companies, making millions of dollars in profit each year. so here is the question. why should foreign governments and taxpayers foot the bill for keeping your ships safe? i think the entire economy that we have, europe, in the united states, around the mediterranean, in asia also are there experts and imports with those regions depend on having safe trading routes. this is actually one of that key

admissions of governments around the world is to guarantee safe trading, to guarantee the safety of the people and the assets that are moving and participating in global trade, and we shoulder a lot of the costs today through deviation and so on, a lot of the costs are absorbed by the line, but the provision of security and safety is the role of governments and not a private companies. and vincent, just for the uninitiated, what sort of equipment do you have on board your ships to assist your crews in terms of it avoiding boardings by rebels or pirates is not and, of course, for their safety? so, normally, only water canons and fairly limited equipment because travelling the seas is a safe operation from that perspective. as the attacks started and before we resumed the transit through a straight here in late december, we actually added armed guards on the ships to go through the danger zones. for the rest, we really rely on the protection of navies

and the safety on the seas. as we know, it's notjust the red sea that is causing difficulties for global shipping. the panama canal, it has cut the number of ships that it lets through because, well, it simply doesn't have enough water. there are also the concerns about the strait of malacca, the south china sea, all of that combined, how worried are you, vincent, about your ability to move goods freely through the worlds oceans? i think that between the rise of geopolitics and also the impact of climate change, which we are seeing play out in the panama canal today, we are seeing an increased level of disruption that we need to work around. this is really a challenge for us to actually provide reliable and consistent service to our customers, and itjust goes to show that a lot of the disruptions that we have seen

over the past decade, they are still with us and they will continue for different cases and reasons. itjust means also that we need to continue to build up the reliance of global resistance on the supply chain. on that point, vincent clerc, the big boss of maersk shipping, a real pleasure having you on the show. thank you for your time. good luck with everything and we will check in with you soon. thank you, aaron. take care. ok, with pretty much every country affected, the united nations security council has called for the houthi attacks on shipping to and immediately. and the part of the un that tries to keep the oceans safe is the international maritime organisation known as the eye and all. ——as the imo. so i've been catching up with the man in charge. arsenio dominguez, really good to have you on the show. let me start with this, because one of the reasons the iml exists is to look after the safety and for security of international shipping, so i have to ask you, given the scale of the threat in the red sea at the moment, is this the biggest challenge the imo has everfaced?

of course, the key question, what can be done about it? it is one of the biggest challenges that the imo has faced, particularly in recent years. the reality is that, as you mentioned, shipping is a global sector. we transport over 80% of global trade, so any actions that are happening out there that could interrupt the trade, the global trade, will have a negative effect on you, and on everyone on this planet. we need to work very closely with all the stakeholders of all the member states. we know the agencies, the united nations in particular, in order to find practical solutions to a problem that we don't want to escalate. given something like 90% of everything in our lives comes to us on a container ship, just how important arsenio, to the global economy that the situation in the red sea is resolved and, of course, resolved quickly. we are recovering, still, from the negative effects of the covid pandemic. if ijust move back a couple of years ago, 2021, when the ship, 2021, when the ship, the evergiven, blocked

the suez canal. we all noticed the negative repercussions on global trade around the world. so this is why we don't want the situation to escalate and to find the solutions that are going to maintain the flow of global trade. yes, there has been reference on container ships, this is beyond that. we are talking about oil and gas and all the raw materials that are necessary for the daily life of everyone in this world. the boss of maersk shipping just told me that the nature of threat to ships was constantly, his word, "evolving" arsenio, how well does the international community understand the threat? and if it's not well enough understood, how much harder does that make it to tackle? there are uncertainties in this situation. i mentioned piracy attacks off the coast of somalia that were contained by around 2012, and of course, some of those measures that we put in place back then are actually applicable right now. evading operational measures,

informing and communicating the positions of the ships in order to find additional support among themselves as well when they are trading in the region. diverting has been another practical operational aspect. but we have to also look into how these evolve to see if there is any further practical measures that we can put into place. arsenio, this is not just about the concerns of the global economy, because there is something like nearly 2 million seafarers out there around the world bringing us us all of our goods, day in and day out, and you are responsible, right? you are responsible for their well—being and their safety. you are absolutely right. and i really want to thank you for raising that specific question, because normally we tend to focus on what is happening to ourselves, what is affecting us directly, and a lot goes into the trade and the financial aspects of this current situation in the red sea, but it's the unsung heroes,

if the seafarers that are out there day in, day out, making all this thing possible. so we need to remember that there are actually victims, innocent victims of these particular cases, and we have to remember that they are just as human as you or i, and we need to find solutions, taking into account how this impacts the seafarers and the well—being is paramount. well, let me ask you about your wonderful home country, panama. it is home, of course, to another of the key routes for global trade, the panama canal. but it had to substantially cut the amount of ships that allows through over the last yearjust because, well, it doesn't have enough water. how damaging is that situation to global trade? it is, it's another negative impact. this one particularly related to climate change and is one of the very tangible negative effects of all the increments and the fact that we need to do something in order to improve the situation. now, with the panama canal having these difficulties, the red sea situation, of course,

once you start adding them up, this is what has a negative effect on global shipping and countries in this particular case, panama canal, you know, they are looking into solutions to improve this for the future. but for us, it's what we can do together, how we as a society also start to improve our green credentials. arsenio, when you add together the problems in the red sea, the panama canal, the the concerns about the strait of malacca and the south china sea, how worried are you about the world's ability to move goods freely through oceans and and really what it all means for the health of the global economy? the concern is that because of the current situation, the challenges are there. but for us it's focusing facing these challenges and finding solutions. i'm a very positive person. and i look back at the track record of this organisation. we continue to evolve. we continue to face challenges, find solutions, move forward. taking these longer routes around

south america or africa don'tjust add costs, right? they also mean that the ships are burning more fuel, which of course very bad for the environment. shipping accounts, as we know, for about 3% of global carbon emissions. arsenio, do you think that these crises add...do they add to the importance of cutting those emissions? the decision has already been made. so the crisis, of course, has that detrimental effect. emissions will go up if we actually take longer routes. safety will be also challenged because we are now going through rougher seas in order to actually avoid the situation that we have in areas like the red sea. but we have to focus on the main areas here and we are all working towards the decarbonisation. we will all learn from all these experiences and we will continue to improve our regulatory process in order to achieve the objectives that we have already agreed in this organisation. and that will take us to continue to support the paris agreement of 2015, where we all come towards the sustainability of the world.

and let me end on this, arsenio, when it comes to the red sea, how long is all of this going to last? because i'm just kind of wondering, is the world going to have to learn to live without a shipping route that has been vital to globalisation and progress over the last 150 years? i'm more positive than that. i think we have come across crisis in the past and we always find a solution and a way forward. shipping will continue to be there. we will continue to supply all the necessary goods that we all need around the world. we will not be without shipping. we will find a way for shipping to continue to be resilient, to adapt and to move forward. well, on that positive point, arsenio dominguez, the big boss of the international maritime organisation, thanks so much for your time. good luck with everything and we'll talk to you soon. thank you very much. ok, let's look at one of the possible bright spots for the global economy this year. it could be the paris olympics, which are nowjust six months away and it might cost billions to host.

but it's also supposed to generate huge returns for the host city and some of the world's biggest companies who sponsor it. so i've been catching up with the big boss of the newest member of that team, belgium based ab inbev. this is the company responsible for more than a quarter of the beer the world drinks, including brands such as budweiser, corona and stella. a real pleasure having you on my show. let's start with this, because this week on the show, we're looking at the vast disruption to the shipping industry because of those attacks in in the red sea. so i want to start with that. as the boss of a major global company who ship products, i imagine, all around the world, what impact is the red sea situation and the panama canal problems for that matter? what impact are those having on on your company? that's an interesting question, because we always say that one of the strengths of beer is that beer is local. right. and in some cases, we say

that we grow our beer locally from the ingredients that we source in the local communities, packaging, the brewing facilities. beer doesn't really travel a lot. there's a lot produced locally. we operate in 50 different countries, and we have local breweries in all of them, yet we still have some exports around the globe. so i have less of an immediate direct impact from all these disruptions. one of the reasons we're all here today, there's a media circus over there, is you're announcing this big olympics sponsorship deal, of course, ahead of the paris games this year. what's going on? why are you doing that? and why is it worth, i'm assuming, the hundreds of millions of dollars that you're going to have to cough up? we saw an opportunity here with corona to have this great beer in more occasions with emblematic competitions such as the olympics.

and we have billions of consumers across the globe supporting their national teams, cheering with their athletes and drinking your beer. and we all know that sports and beer are a power duo, so. you know, michel, i've got to ask you, how much is it costing and when would you know that that investment pays off? we are not talking about the specifics of the contract, but as, of course, is in the in the range of the standard contracts that the other sponsors have, corona zero... we're talking hundreds of millions... ..a top sponsor. and of course, now the execution of this globally, the reach that we have, for example, corona is in 180 countries globally. and the opportunity to further develop the beer category with non—alcohol is the business case, is the idea that we are falling behind, but we also have values of excellence, respect, friendship that we as a company share

with the international olympic committee that are an important part of this partnership. well, you just mentioned it, but one of the focuses of the olympics sponsorship and the olympic deal is this nonalcoholic beer. and we know, michele, right, that it's been a trend that's been growing really fast over the last few years. so, again, i've got to ask you, how important is nonalcoholic beer for the industry? and i'm also wondering what what's driving this this change, if you will? so today, the the size of the nonalcoholic low alcohol beers globally is a relevant market, like $13 billion in value and is growing double digits. but moreover, if you think about what we call incrementality, so when people choose a non—alcohol beer, 60% of these revenues are incremental

to the beer category. and this happens two ways. one, because you have, like, beer lovers like me that take a non—alcohol as an opportunity to have the refreshment, the socialisation in more occasions. and you also get people that don't drink alcohol and they want a beverage. they want to participate in social settings. do you ever see a day show where you would see nonalcoholic beer be as a bigger seller than traditional? traditional, if you call it that, traditional beer. as of today, you can't project that or say that. what you see today. that's interesting is nonalcoholic beer globally is growing faster than the total beer category. and this is great because as we offer more moderation choices for consumers, they are embracing

and adopting these brands. and if we look at the us where we've seen certainly we've seen the success of lower alcohol beer, bud light, certainly one of the country's top sellers. that was until last year, right, when it lost about ten and a half percent of sales in just a period of three months. and that was because of the the boycott, which was triggered by this marketing campaign that used a transgender tik tok personality. i'm just wondering, what lessons do you think has the company learned from that situation? i think that the key point on this is consumers, they want us to focus on what we do best, and they want bud light to do what bud light does. they want beer brands and our company to focus on our core business and in the platforms that our consumers love. part of these platforms are music, sports, entertainment. so the fact that we are here announcing the partnership with corona zero for the olympics

is us moving forward and getting to do what our brands do best, which is bringing to people entertainment, opportunities and this easy way of enjoying life. well, on that point, a real pleasure, the big boss of ab inbev. thanks very much for your time on the show. thank you. good luck with the olympics, by the way. for all of us. thank you. well, that's it for this week's show. i hope you enjoyed it. don't forget, you can keep up with the latest on the global economy on the bbc news website and the smartphone app. of course, you can also get in touch with me on x. x me, i'll x you back i'm aaron, thanks for watching. i'll see you soon. bye bye. hello there. we're in for a very stormy spell of weather for the second half of sunday into the first

part of monday. all thanks to storm isha. the met office have a number of amber wind warnings in force for northern and western areas. heavy rain could lead to localised flooding along with snowmelt, as it will be turning very mild indeed. but we could be looking at some significant disruption from this storm as it continues to hurtle across the atlantic towards our shores later on sunday. but sunday starts off on a fine note for many. england and wales dry with some sunshine, same, too, for northeast scotland. the winds will continue to pick up, though, through the day and rain across northern ireland will spread across the irish sea into much of scotland, northern and western, england and wales. it will be turning downhill as we head through the afternoon, but very mild the time of year, up to 13 degrees in many parts of england, wales, northern ireland. storm isha continues to plough through during sunday evening and overnight, a real squeeze in the isobars across western scotland, northern ireland and lots of isobars across the charts. amber warnings in force, gusts of 60—70 mph in southwest england, particularly irish sea coast, much of wales, maybe up to 80mph, north west wales, 60—70 for northern england, maybe 80 mph in excess for northern ireland. some very strong winds expected across scotland through the night, perhaps in excess of 85mph across western scotland. so these are damaging gusts,

and likely to cause some disruption. there will be some heavy rain and showers rattling through as well. and we'll also see amber warning for the southeast of england for strong winds. sussex and kent could see gusts in excess of 60—70 mph early on monday. mild nights come across the south, taking a little bit fresher further north. into monday, storm isha continues to push across the norwegian sea. lots of isobars on the charts. so monday will be another windy day as well, not as windy as sunday night. and there'll be lots of showers rattling into northern and western areas. best of the sunshine towards the east, some wintryness and over the higher ground of scotland and northern england. it won't feel particularly warm in the northeast factor in the wind, but still double figures in the south. stays pretty unsettled for the upcoming week. tuesday, we see another spell of wet and windy weather, and then a ridge of high pressure for wednesday will bring some fine conditions. another spell of wet and windy weather, perhaps,

for thursday and friday. so the weather really will be up and down through this week, interspersed with fine spells, generally staying on the mild side. stay tuned to the forecast, though, for the effects of storm isha.

live from washington. this is bbc news iran's president vows to punish israel for an air strike in damascus that killed five iranian revolutionary guards as tensions continue to flare in the middle east. as israel's campaign against hamas continues, more than a hundred historically important sites in gaza have been damaged — or destroyed and with the new hampshire primaryjust days away — can nikki haley catch up to donald trump's lead — for the republican presidential nomination. hello i'm helena humphrey. crisis continues in the middle east — after missile attacks were reported in syria, lebanon, iraq and yemen on saturday. the strikes highlight the growing risk that the war in gaza could trigger a wider regional conflict, pitting iran and its allies against israel and its allies, like the united states. iran's president, meanwhile,

has promised revenege on israel for an air strike on the syrian capital, that killed five