we are slowly chipping away at their capabilities. so the capabilities they had yesterday they no longer have today's. and the disruption in commercial shipping could increase prices: how companies and manufacturers are responding. hello, i'm azadeh moshiri. welcome to the programme. for the next half hour, we'll be focusing on the international response to houthi attacks in the red sea and the global impact. we begin with breaking news with the us announcing just moments ago its forces destroyed an anti—ship missile aimed into the red sea which was prepared to launch

from a houthi—controlled area of yemen. houthi fighters have continued to target the key shipping route there in the red sea, despite the uk and us strikes. earlier, an oil tanker caught fire after it was struck off the coast of yemen. a houthi military spokesman confirms the strike was carried out by the group's naval forces from yemen. translation: in vindication of the oppressed palestinian | people and in support and solidarity with our brothers in the gaza strip and in response to the american—british aggression against our country, yemeni navalforces carried out a targeting operation on the british oil tanker marlin luanda in the gulf of aden using a number of appropriate naval missiles. the strike was direct and resulted in the burning of the vessel. earlier, uk maritime trade operations 60 nautical miles south east of aden, and this comes after british maritime security firm ambrey reported a fire broke out on a vessel 55 miles south—east of aden after it was hit by a missile. the crew were reported safe. earlier friday before this latest us strike on houthis,

us central command confirmed friday its forces shot down in yemen, an anti—ship ballistic missile targeting its destroyer in the gulf of aden, the uss carney. no injuries or damage were reported. the houthis are, of course, backed by iran. reuters is now reporting that china is getting involved. citing four iranian sources, the report says officials from beijing have been asking their iranian counterparts to help reign in houthi fighters. the discussions reportedly took place in recent meetings in beijing and tehran. china would take notice, because the commercial shipping route is used widely by its vessels. plus, these attacks come amid a sagging economy in china, heavily dependent on shipping. not to mention, last year, beijing imported 90% of iran's crude oil available for export. the houthis have repeatedly launched attacks on ships in the red sea since november. they say it's in response to israel's war on hamas in the gaza strip.

the timeline, of course, begins with the attacks on by hamas on israel on october the seventh. 1,300 people were killed and 240 taken hostage. about a month later, the red sea crisis officially begins. the houthis respond to israel's offensive by hijacking a commercial ship in the red sea in november. they have since attacked more than two dozen others, but most have been missiles, and the drones have been intercepted. and on january the 11th, the us carries out a strike on the houthis in yemen after the houthis warned of further attacks on ships in the red sea. fast forward to today, as we told you, an oil tanker is struck by houthi fighters and catches fire in the gulf of aden. earlier, i spoke about how the us has been responding alongside allies, including the uk, with sabrina singh. she's the pentagon's deputy press secretary and has been briefing reporters on what the us department of defense's central command is calling

0peration poseidon archer. the operation comes amid renewed worries about a widening conflict in the region that began with the israel—gaza war. there have been several rounds of us strikes now and the houthis have sustained bombardment by saudi arabia for years so why would these strikes deter them? what is the aim here? , strikes deter them? what is the aim here?— aim here? these strikes are really coming _ aim here? these strikes are really coming from - aim here? these strikes are really coming from pretty i really coming from pretty controlled territories in yemen and launched towards not only ships but vessels who have no connection to the middle east, who are transiting an international more waterway will be cced10% of the world's commerce flow persistently so it's really up to the houthis to decide when it is not in their interest anymore to continue to disrupt commercial economic flow through the red sea and through the health of aden and in december what you saw as the secretary of defense

announced a coalition, 0peration prosperity guardian was formed to protect and to help commercial vessels transiting through the red sea to get you safely by doing joint patrols with our coalition partners in the region and entering safety and also to protect, as we see missiles being shot out of yemen and out of who for controlled areas, our ships and coalition partners have engaged the missiles in protecting is also they can continue their transit through.— also they can continue their transit through. you've said ou've transit through. you've said you've engaged _ transit through. you've said you've engaged them - transit through. you've said you've engaged them but . transit through. you've said i you've engaged them but what transit through. you've said - you've engaged them but what is the damage that the pentagon actually estimates the houthis have sustained now. we've destroyed radar strikes, uas the facilities, storage facilities that house weapons, places where they operate out of, and we are inflicting incredible cost to the capabilities and we have not said and by no means have we implied we have eradicated all of their capabilities across the map, they still have a

robust arsenal but by our strategic strikes both with multilateral partners such as the uk and other countries and a unilateral dynamic strikes that you've seen is taken in self—defence, we are slowly chipping away at their capability so the capabilities that they had yesterday, they no longer have today and they no longer have today and they no longer have today and they no longer can go back to those storage sites, the radar sites and able to launch successfully at commercial ships.— at commercial ships. again, i am under- — at commercial ships. again, i am under- and _ at commercial ships. again, i am under- and i— at commercial ships. again, i am under- and i don't- at commercial ships. again, i am under- and i don't think | am under— and i don't think anyone is under any idea that we are eradicating their capabilities, we know that iran continues to equip, to train, to support the houthis and other irgc backed militia groups but we're going to continue to take self—defence strikes where we need to protect our forces and protect commercial ships that are the area. ., ., area. to that point, you've said iran — area. to that point, you've said iran supplies - area. to that point, you've said iran supplies them - area. to that point, you've. said iran supplies them with weapons. both iran and the houthis would deny that. either way, what has the us done to cut off the supply? what is the

us able to do when it comes to the backing from iran? irdn us able to do when it comes to the backing from iran? iran can continue to _ the backing from iran? iran can continue to deny _ the backing from iran? iran can continue to deny all— the backing from iran? iran can continue to deny all they - the backing from iran? iran can continue to deny all they want l continue to deny all they want but the facts are the facts. we know iran has a hand in directing and supporting these irgc proxy groups, whether it be thomas, hezbollah or with it is in yemen and recently about a week ago, the us military interdicted a ship that was transiting weapons that were coming from iran, going towards supplying houthis with more military capabilities, so that's just one incidence of the united states military taking action and being able to seize weapons that were going to restock and refill the houthis's capabilities. again, i will not get into all of our intelligence assessments into how we can interdict weapons but we know that iran can continue to support the houthis but it's a calculation that iran and the houthis are going to have to make. at what point

does the cost become too much for them because ultimately, at the end of the day, they are firing missiles at ships that have no connection to the region, that ijust transiting through as part of commercial trade and commercial shipping on an everyday basis, so it's really up to the houthis to make the calculation at what point does it become financially and economically too much of a strain them to continue to damage trade in the region? iii continue to damage trade in the re . ion? . ., continue to damage trade in the reuion? . ., ., region? if the twice now that it's the houthis _ region? if the twice now that it's the houthis decision - region? if the twice now that it's the houthis decision on l it's the houthis decision on when this ends. drones are not expensive and they have a lot of them and iran is supplying them. in your view and the pentagon's view, along could this threat persist in the red sea? �* ., this threat persist in the red sea? �* . . . ., this threat persist in the red sea? �* . ., ,, this threat persist in the red sea? . ., ,, ., sea? again, i cannot speak for the houthis— sea? again, i cannot speak for the houthis but _ sea? again, i cannot speak for the houthis but that's - sea? again, i cannot speak for the houthis but that's really i the houthis but that's really up the houthis but that's really up to them to decide when they stopped and when they decide to stopped and when they decide to stop launching ballistic missiles at ships, at our destroyers, as coalition partners. it's really their decision, there calculation, when they decide to stop. fire

when they decide to stop. are we talking _ when they decide to stop. are we talking weeks or months or days? we talking weeks or months or da s? ., . ., , days? you cover this extensively. - days? you cover this extensively. i- days? you cover thisj extensively. i cannot days? you cover this - extensively. i cannot put a timeline on it and something for the movies to decide and to make the calculation when they decide to stop these reckless and dangerous attacks. what i can tell you is the united states's commitment to upholding the international rule—based order, to upholding freedom of navigation and ensuring that commercial ships and our own ships are safe. sabrina singh, thank you so much for the time you have given today. we appreciate it. of course, thank you. and to break down all things related to the red sea crisis, i wasjoined by a panel including phil stewart, a military and intelligence correspondent at reuters, bassima alghussein, the executive director and hisham al—0meisy, a senior yemen advisor at the european institute of peace. and john lang, who focuses on trade and supply chains at the eurasia group, joined us remotely. i would love to start with you,

phil. we heard their sabrina saying she cannot put a timeline on it and it depends on the houthis. they like to play the long game, though, don't they?— don't they? that's right. if ou don't they? that's right. if you are — don't they? that's right. if you are sitting _ don't they? that's right. if you are sitting here - don't they? that's right. if you are sitting here and i you are sitting here and watching some 3a attacks on houthis, maybe ten rounds of us recovered three strikes and you look at this as a tit—for—tat fight, it's not really what it is. it is the houthis will not stop. it's unclear what it will take for the us military to get them to do that. in take for the us military to get them to do that.— them to do that. in terms of what the _ them to do that. in terms of what the houthis _ them to do that. in terms of what the houthis are - them to do that. in terms of what the houthis are saying| what the houthis are saying when it comes to their motivations, they are saying this is all about the israel—gaza war and the united states and its allies are keen to say nothing to do with the war. how is this being framed ljy war. how is this being framed by the houthis exactly? {line war. how is this being framed by the houthis exactly? one of the most strategic _ by the houthis exactly? one of the most strategic advantages | the most strategic advantages that iran — the most strategic advantages that iran has in the is playing the palestinian—israeli conflict into their ability to recruit— conflict into their ability to recruit and inspire people on the ground to fight for whatever cause really advances

iranian — whatever cause really advances iranian interests so the iranians _ iranian interests so the iranians are key to disrupt america's power in the region and this— america's power in the region and this conflict provides a perfect _ and this conflict provides a perfect opportunity for them to mobilise — perfect opportunity for them to mobilise people on the ground to he _ mobilise people on the ground to be very active and continue to be very active and continue to attack— to be very active and continue to attack us forces, whether they— to attack us forces, whether they be _ to attack us forces, whether they be ships going through or troops — they be ships going through or troops in — they be ships going through or troops in iraq and syria. you are talking _ troops in iraq and syria. you are talking about _ troops in iraq and syria. ym. are talking about perception, there, essentially and i wonder in terms of the way the houthis are promoting this and the way the middle east is seeing it in general. how is it is being viewed in the middle east? titer? viewed in the middle east? very different perspective. _ viewed in the middle east? very different perspective. they are seeing — different perspective. they are seeing it — different perspective. they are seeing it as _ different perspective. they are seeing it as a _ different perspective. they are seeing it as a war— different perspective. they are seeing it as a war between - seeing it as a war between basically— seeing it as a war between basically good _ seeing it as a war between basically good and - seeing it as a war between basically good and evil. i seeing it as a war betweenl basically good and evil. the houthis— basically good and evil. the houthis have _ basically good and evil. the houthis have framed - basically good and evil. the houthis have framed this i houthis have framed this narrative _ houthis have framed this narrative locally- houthis have framed this narrative locally and - houthis have framed this narrative locally and now| houthis have framed this - narrative locally and now are propagating _ narrative locally and now are propagating the _ narrative locally and now are propagating the same - narrative locally and now are i propagating the same narrative readily— propagating the same narrative readily as— propagating the same narrative readily as this _ propagating the same narrative readily as this is _ propagating the same narrative readily as this is a _ propagating the same narrative readily as this is a fight - readily as this is a fight between _ readily as this is a fight between the _ readily as this is a fight between the west - readily as this is a fight between the west and i readily as this is a fight i between the west and the readily as this is a fight _ between the west and the muslim oman, _ between the west and the muslim oman. the — between the west and the muslim oman, the muslim _ between the west and the muslim oman, the muslim nations, - between the west and the muslim oman, the muslim nations, and l oman, the muslim nations, and they've — oman, the muslim nations, and they've gotten _ oman, the muslim nations, and they've gotten really _ oman, the muslim nations, and they've gotten really good - oman, the muslim nations, and they've gotten really good at. they've gotten really good at it and — they've gotten really good at it and they've _ they've gotten really good at it and they've recruited - it and they've recruited somewhere _ it and they've recruited somewhere between i it and they've recruited i somewhere between 30— it and they've recruited _ somewhere between 30— 40,000

fighters _ somewhere between 30— 40,000 fighters to— somewhere between 30— 40,000 fighters to the _ somewhere between 30— 40,000 fighters to the al—aqsa _ somewhere between 30— 40,000 fighters to the al—aqsa flood - fighters to the al—aqsa flood brigades. _ fighters to the al—aqsa flood brigades, the _ fighters to the al—aqsa flood brigades, the yemeni - fighters to the al—aqsa flood i brigades, the yemeni version fighters to the al—aqsa flood . brigades, the yemeni version of it, locally. — brigades, the yemeni version of it, locally. this— brigades, the yemeni version of it, locally. this is— brigades, the yemeni version of it, locally. this is actually- it, locally. this is actually resonating _ it, locally. this is actually resonating well— it, locally. this is actually resonating well not - it, locally. this is actually resonating well not just l resonating well not just locally _ resonating well not just locally but _ resonating well not just locally but in _ resonating well not just locally but in egypt - resonating well not just locally but in egypt and | resonating well not just - locally but in egypt and iraq and syria _ locally but in egypt and iraq and syria and _ locally but in egypt and iraq and syria and morocco - locally but in egypt and iraq and syria and morocco andl and syria and morocco and algiers _ and syria and morocco and algiers and _ and syria and morocco and algiers and right _ and syria and morocco and algiers and right now, wel and syria and morocco and i algiers and right now, we are also — algiers and right now, we are also seeing _ algiers and right now, we are also seeing them _ algiers and right now, we are also seeing them get - also seeing them get cheerleaders- also seeing them get cheerleaders from i also seeing them getl cheerleaders from the also seeing them get - cheerleaders from the west — places— cheerleaders from the west — places like _ cheerleaders from the west — places like london _ cheerleaders from the west — places like london and - places like london and washington _ places like london and washington and - places like london and i washington and brussels places like london and - washington and brussels — and this is— washington and brussels — and this is scary— washington and brussels — and this is scary because _ washington and brussels — and this is scary because it- washington and brussels — and this is scary because it is- this is scary because it is getting _ this is scary because it is getting a _ this is scary because it is getting a lot _ this is scary because it is getting a lot of - this is scary because it is getting a lot of traction. | this is scary because it is getting a lot of traction. you sa it is getting a lot of traction. you say it is scary- _ getting a lot of traction. you say it is scary. these - getting a lot of traction. you say it is scary. these are - say it is scary. these are brittle fighters, the way they fight. you know this better than anyone. you have enjoyed being taken by them and held by them for months. how is it that they can gain the support through this after the actions they've committed against others and yourself? excellent question- _ others and yourself? excellent question. one _ others and yourself? excellent question. one thing _ others and yourself? excellent question. one thing they - others and yourself? excellent question. one thing they are l question. one thing they are good — question. one thing they are good at _ question. one thing they are good at is _ question. one thing they are good at is weaponising - good at is weaponising grievances. _ good at is weaponising grievances, they've - good at is weaponising i grievances, they've taken shared _ grievances, they've taken shared traumas, - grievances, they've taken shared traumas, things. grievances, they've taken i shared traumas, things that have — shared traumas, things that have happened _ shared traumas, things that have happened to _ shared traumas, things that have happened to the - shared traumas, things that i have happened to the general public— have happened to the general public and _ have happened to the general public and muslims _ have happened to the general public and muslims in - have happened to the general public and muslims in placesl public and muslims in places like gaza _ public and muslims in places like gaza and _ public and muslims in places like gaza and turn _ public and muslims in places like gaza and turn around . public and muslims in placesl like gaza and turn around and pinthem—

like gaza and turn around and pin them all— like gaza and turn around and pin them all on _ like gaza and turn around and pin them all on an _ like gaza and turn around and pin them all on an external. pin them all on an external photo _ pin them all on an external photo so _ pin them all on an external photo so it's _ pin them all on an external photo so it's us _ pin them all on an external photo so it's us versus - pin them all on an external. photo so it's us versus them that— photo so it's us versus them that external— photo so it's us versus them that external photo - photo so it's us versus them that external photo and - photo so it's us versus them j that external photo and they weaponise _ that external photo and they weaponise those _ that external photo and they weaponise those grievancesl that external photo and they. weaponise those grievances —— foe~ _ weaponise those grievances —— foe~ they— weaponise those grievances —— foe. they romanticise - weaponise those grievances —— foe. they romanticise their - foe. they romanticise their violence _ foe. they romanticise their violence in _ foe. they romanticise their violence in a _ foe. they romanticise their violence in a way _ foe. they romanticise their violence in a way using - foe. they romanticise their violence in a way using a i violence in a way using a religious— violence in a way using a religious rhetoric. - violence in a way using a religious rhetoric. they. violence in a way using a i religious rhetoric. they use the — religious rhetoric. they use the koran, _ religious rhetoric. they use the koran, they— religious rhetoric. they use the koran, they use - religious rhetoric. they use the koran, they use this. religious rhetoric. they use i the koran, they use this whole campaign _ the koran, they use this whole campaign is _ the koran, they use this whole campaign is called _ the koran, they use this whole campaign is called the - the koran, they use this whole i campaign is called the promised conquest — campaign is called the promised conquest and _ campaign is called the promised conquest and the _ campaign is called the promised conquest and the holy— campaign is called the promised conquest and the holyjihad, - conquest and the holyjihad, the promised _ conquest and the holyjihad, the promised conquest - conquest and the holyjihad, the promised conquest of. the promised conquest of jerusalem _ the promised conquest of jerusalem and _ the promised conquest of jerusalem and the - the promised conquest of jerusalem and the holy. the promised conquest of. jerusalem and the holy land the promised conquest of- jerusalem and the holy land and the jihad — jerusalem and the holy land and the jihad against _ jerusalem and the holy land and the jihad against the _ jerusalem and the holy land and the jihad against the heavens, i the jihad against the heavens, against — the jihad against the heavens, against the _ the jihad against the heavens, against the jews, _ the jihad against the heavens, against the jews, against - the jihad against the heavens, against the jews, against the. against the jews, against the christians. _ against the jews, against the christians, against _ against the jews, against the christians, against anybody i against the jews, against the i christians, against anybody who stands — christians, against anybody who stands in — christians, against anybody who stands in their— christians, against anybody who stands in theirway_ christians, against anybody who stands in their way of— christians, against anybody who stands in their way of the - stands in their way of the muslim _ stands in their way of the muslim nation _ stands in their way of the muslim nation —— - stands in their way of the - muslim nation —— heathens.. john, — muslim nation —— heathens.. john, as _ muslim nation —— heathens.. john, as we're _ muslim nation —— heathens.. john, as we're talking - muslim nation —— heathens.. john, as we're talking aboutl john, as we're talking about the way that the houthis framed this, the us and its allies would of course argue they had no choice but to proceed in this way, that this was defence. could you just explain the economic impact that this has had on global trade? yeah, it's been significant. _

has had on global trade? yeah, it's been significant. as - has had on global trade? yeah, it's been significant. as soon i it's been significant. as soon as you have this kind of kinetic military activity in a choke point like the red sea you are talking about a number of downstream impacts and as soon as you talk about global supply chains, you are notjust talking about direct imports but upstream imports into the manufacturing of downstream goods. really kind of the tentacles go all over the place and it's particularly being felt in europe. that said, especially on the heels of kind of the logistics destructions we saw in the midst of the worst of the covid pandemic, a lot of the resilience has been built into the system so there's a lot more news since then, shipping capacity has been brought online but to some degree it will mitigate some of the worst impacts of the current crisis in the suez, in the red sea as ships seek to circumnavigate africa as an alternative rout, so there is some resilience that is being built in but at the same time we are also seeing downstream impacts on the auto industry for example in europe and other

industries. 50 for example in europe and other industries— industries. so they are trying to act quickly. _ industries. so they are trying to act quickly. in _ industries. so they are trying to act quickly. in terms - industries. so they are trying to act quickly. in terms of. to act quickly. in terms of another response, writers had another response, writers had another story about china. can you explain how that comes into it, this and how the pressure on iran may be the solution here? it on iran may be the solution here? , . ., ., here? it is unclear what will ha en here? it is unclear what will happen with _ here? it is unclear what will happen with iran. _ here? it is unclear what will happen with iran. if- here? it is unclear what will happen with iran. if china i here? it is unclear what will i happen with iran. if china buys 90%_ happen with iran. if china buys 90% of— happen with iran. if china buys 90% of iran's exportable oil obviously china has influence. but 90% of iran's exportable oil obviously china has influence. but i 90% of iran's exportable oil obviously china has influence. but i have 90% of iran's exportable oil obviously china has influence. but i have it 90% of iran's exportable oil obviously china has influence. but i have it on 90% of iran's exportable oil obviously china has influence. but i have it on very 90% of iran's exportable oil obviously china has influence. but i have it on very -ood but i have it on very good authority that today with that attack — authority that today with that attack on the fuel tank there were — attack on the fuel tank there were chinese pla ships in the vicinity — were chinese pla ships in the vicinity. they did not respond to the — vicinity. they did not respond to the distress call. so how much — to the distress call. so how much is _ to the distress call. so how much is china willing to put skin— much is china willing to put skin in— much is china willing to put skin in the game here. of their really— skin in the game here. of their really willing to protect global trades document as other guests, — global trades document as other guests, as mentioned, we are seeing — guests, as mentioned, we are seeing declines in freight shipping through the suez canal, _ shipping through the suez canal, a _ shipping through the suez canal, a major, major disruption in global trade. china _ disruption in global trade. china has an interest in doing something but so far no skin in the game _

something but so far no skin in the game. so something but so far no skin in the game-— something but so far no skin in the game. so when it comes to iran's the game. so when it comes to trans rule _ the game. so when it comes to iran's rule dominant _ the game. so when it comes to iran's rule dominant role - the game. so when it comes to iran's rule dominant role in - iran's rule dominant role in all this we had sabrina singh saying they are trying to disrupt the supply of weapons. in your view, could you lay out the calculation that the pentagon is making and not taking on a run directly? i taking on a run directly? i have been on two trips with pentagon officials to the region— pentagon officials to the region since the war in gaza broke — region since the war in gaza broke out— region since the war in gaza broke out and on both of those you saw — broke out and on both of those you saw us defense secretary and central command tried to manage — and central command tried to manage the fallout from the crisis — manage the fallout from the crisis in _ manage the fallout from the crisis in gaza to try and contain _ crisis in gaza to try and contain it so we did not have a regional— contain it so we did not have a regional war. contain it so we did not have a regionalwar. basically, what you are — regionalwar. basically, what you are seeing the united states— you are seeing the united states do is try to deal with all of— states do is try to deal with all of the symptoms of the conflict _ all of the symptoms of the conflict without going after iran~ — conflict without going after iran~ 0n _ conflict without going after iran. on the 11 january there were — iran. on the 11 january there were two— iran. on the 11 january there were two navy seals who lost their— were two navy seals who lost their lives boarding a ship and sabrina — their lives boarding a ship and sabrina singh did bring this up but that—

sabrina singh did bring this up but that one of cruise missiles, guidance systems, that— missiles, guidance systems, that the _ missiles, guidance systems, that the houthis need, clearly they— that the houthis need, clearly they have much more capability. so the _ they have much more capability. so the us— they have much more capability. so the us does not want to go after— so the us does not want to go after wright two it does not want — after wright two it does not want to _ after wright two it does not want to go after hooter sounds leadership at the houthis seem to he _ leadership at the houthis seem to be want to fight. yes leadership at the houthis seem to be want to fight.— to be want to fight. yes a bombardment _ to be want to fight. yes a bombardment by - to be want to fight. yes a bombardment by the - to be want to fight. yes a i bombardment by the saudi government and they can handle it and they are willing to handle it, no matter the cost in some ways. let's look a little closer at the economic impact. increased safety concerns have prompted hundreds of cargo ships to avoid the red sea altogether, causing fears it could have a widespread economic impact. to give you an idea of the drastic change for these vessels, this is marine data showing container ship traffic back in november. you can see how busy that route is, up from the red sea to the suez canal. and this is current data — ships have all but abandoned the red sea and are going round the southern tip of

africa's cape of good hope. that means vessels are now adding nearly two weeks to their journeys. the lengthy detour adds nearly 3500 miles, 6500 kilometres to their journeys and costs an additional $1 million in extra fuel. this change could also impact the 12% of global trade worth over $1 trillion that passes through the red sea each year. there are concerns that the crisis could push the prices of goods even higher, delaying deliveries by weeks or even longer. it's already affecting manufacturers in europe, causing tesla and volvo to temporarily suspend vehicle production at their plants in germany and belgium due to shortages of parts. and swedish furniture giant ikea warned some products could have less availability. riccardo viaggi is secretary general of the cece, that's the committee for european construction equipment, which represents more than 1,000 european manufacturers

and he says the trade sectors that depend on now—diverted cargo are bracing for the worst. the sector is being hit quite badly. forthe the sector is being hit quite badly. for the moment, this is not nearly as negative as hard—hitting as the 2021 supply chain disruptions but we are only waiting for it to get worse. when these two weeks that you just mentioned and these increased costs will become the norm, will become the sustained norm for days and weeks or maybe even months, these supply chain instructions will be very bad. it may even be in similarto will be very bad. it may even be in similar to what we have had in 2021 with factory closures or assembly lines closures or assembly lines closures and down the line it may be machines and equipment that are needed forjob sites all over europe will not be delivered any longer.

let's return to our panel. we have phil stewart of reuters, bassima alghussein, and hisham al—omeisy and joining us remotely isjohn lang with the regent group. phil, i would like to return to you because one raf, former raf helicopter captain told me that he thought 1—way this could all unfold and potentially be resolved in terms of the west and their worries about global trade, is that saudi arabia may see a weakness here and they may think, well, maybe it is time to up our attacks again and this is a moment of vulnerability for the houthis. what you make of that? aha, what you make of that? fascinating idea but so far the saudis have long sought to extricate themselves from the crisis in yemen and from there war. and are reporting at reuters so far we have not seen any appetite from the saudis to get involved here. if the

saudis think a quick fight with the houthis would be away at the houthis would be away at the conflict, i think history would prove that wrong. right. lookin: would prove that wrong. right. looking to _ would prove that wrong. right. looking to the _ would prove that wrong. right. looking to the future _ would prove that wrong. right. looking to the future still, - looking to the future still, hisham al—omeisy, yemen, as you know better than most, is going through a severe economic crisis. this will not help. could that put pressure on the people to demand that the houthis stop these attacks. it up houthis stop these attacks. it up one solution?— houthis stop these attacks. it up one solution? no, the saudis have tried _ up one solution? no, the saudis have tried that _ up one solution? no, the saudis have tried that formula - up one solution? no, the saudis have tried that formula before. l have tried that formula before. if have tried that formula before. if they— have tried that formula before. if they squeeze yemen is enough... shutdown the airports and that— enough... shutdown the airports and that would basically force people — and that would basically force people to stand up and rise up against — people to stand up and rise up against the houthis. if anything it further galvanised support— anything it further galvanised support for the houthis locally. the houthis are really good — locally. the houthis are really good at — locally. the houthis are really good at propaganda and they make — good at propaganda and they make every year dependent on external— make every year dependent on external foes make every year dependent on external toes and depended on the saudi. this is wanting i agree _ the saudi. this is wanting i agree with phil says, the reason _ agree with phil says, the reason the saudis are trying to

extricate — reason the saudis are trying to extricate themselves. they don't — extricate themselves. they don't want to be involved in the conflict and want to shut down — the conflict and want to shut down that door. yemen has always— down that door. yemen has always been the saudis vietnam. they— always been the saudis vietnam. they have — always been the saudis vietnam. they have been making a lot of concessions over the 18 months to sign— concessions over the 18 months to sign a — concessions over the 18 months to sign a road piece. theyjust want — to sign a road piece. theyjust want to— to sign a road piece. theyjust want to basically get out of there _ want to basically get out of there. and i have noticed a lot of talk— there. and i have noticed a lot of talk with foreigners and diplomats trying to entice the saudis— diplomats trying to entice the saudis and em varieties to get involved — saudis and em varieties to get involved even with the forces involved even with the forces in the — involved even with the forces in the red sea but they have locked — in the red sea but they have locked the saudis and uae and other— locked the saudis and uae and other golf countries have blocked those efforts because they don't want to get embroiled or be back on that wagon — embroiled or be back on that wagon of— embroiled or be back on that wagon of eight years of war. that— wagon of eight years of war. that is— wagon of eight years of war. that is fascinating what you that is fascinating what you said there about the fact that at the end of the day this is sort of saudi arabia's vietnam. bassima alghussein, in terms of saudi arabia's perspective, this is playing today advantage? suddenly painting the houthis is a really disrupting force that had to be dealt with perhaps and therefore reframing some of their actions?

therefore reframing some of theiractions? green therefore reframing some of their actions? green i don't think so it all. the houthis were already extremely unpopular in the western as we are very aware the saudis were very much on track to have normalised relations with israel, which would have created another huge trading opportunity for both the saudis and the israelis and so there were many potential commercial benefits for both sides to gain. benefits for both sides to rain. ., benefits for both sides to lain, ., , . ., , benefits for both sides to rain. ., , ., gain. now, because of the situation _ gain. now, because of the situation they _ gain. now, because of the situation they are - gain. now, because of the situation they are not - gain. now, because of the l situation they are not going gain. now, because of the - situation they are not going to situation they are not going to be able — situation they are not going to be able to— situation they are not going to be able to get— situation they are not going to be able to get involved - situation they are not going to be able to get involved for - be able to get involved for probably— be able to get involved for probably another- be able to get involved for probably another decade l be able to get involved forl probably another decade or be able to get involved for - probably another decade or so in any— probably another decade or so in any kind _ probably another decade or so in any kind of— probably another decade or so in any kind of commercial - in any kind of commercial relationship _ in any kind of commercial relationship with- in any kind of commercial relationship with israel. relationship with israel because _ relationship with israel because of— relationship with israel because of their- relationship with israel. because of their domestic political— because of their domestic political pressure - because of their domestic political pressure that - because of their domesticl political pressure that they see in— political pressure that they see in support _ political pressure that they see in support of— political pressure that they see in support of the - political pressure that they. see in support of the people political pressure that they - see in support of the people in palestine _ see in support of the people in palestine i— see in support of the people in palestine-— palestine. i 'ust want to wrap this u- palestine. i just want to wrap this up quickly _ palestine. i just want to wrap this up quickly with _ palestine. i just want to wrap this up quickly with john, - this up quickly withjohn, john, wejust highlighted there how difficult it is to see this coming to an end quickly. what, very quickly, would be the potential worst—case scenario if this goes on for months? worst—case scenario would

really be an expansion of the current conflict. it is hard for the throughput disruption through the red sea itself to get much worse. there has been a precipitous drop off of container traffic. that was our paneljoining me in the studio earlier. now, before we go, you may want to put off honeymoon or big holidy plans if it involves getting through the red sea. in fact, safety concerns in the red sea could have an impact on the social—media famous ultimate world cruise. the 274—night voyage around the world on the serenade of the seas ship is set to sail through the red sea in may, during its second leg. but ongoing reports over the red sea conflict have sparked concerns that the cruise could be cut short. the trip's operator, royal caribbean, told us media that it plans to continue the journey as scheduled. however, some other cruises have already cancelled or adjusted itineraries to avoid the crisis. royal caribbean has cancelled two of its voyages this month and amended the itinerary of a third cruise between aqaba and musca, citing safety concerns. and swiss—italian operator msc

cruises has cancelled three trips in aprilfrom south africa and the united arab emirates to europe after being unable to find a viable alternative. while thousands of passengers will be impacted, the cancellations are not expected to have a significant impact on the cruise industry. clearly, it is ruining a lot of holidays. there is much more on these attacks in the red sea on our bbc news website so please do go read in. stay with us here on bbc news. the weekend's weather is looking relatively quiet, certainly quieter than we started the week with all that stormy weather. still quite breezy with a few showers, particularly across parts of scotland. but for most of us, a dry weekend in store and things turning milder, particularly by the time

we get to sunday. so to start off saturday, i think temperatures will be around about one or two degrees in the south and south—east of england. quite a chilly start here, a touch of frost, perhaps a few mist and fog patches around. they should clear away pretty quickly. windiest weather will be in the north and north—west. we could see gusts 60, even 70 miles an hour up towards the northern isles through saturday morning. some rain lingering mainly to the north of the great glen, i think for scotland, perhaps the odd, light spot of rain for northern ireland as well. but i think for southern scotland, england and wales we're looking at a dry day with some long spells of sunshine, areas of cloud drifting around, particularly towards the west, and highs around nine or ten degrees. into saturday evening then, it's again going to turn quite chilly in the south and the east for a time with those lighter winds. but more cloud rolling in towards the west, could be the odd spot of drizzle coming out of this cloud as well. and it will be turning milder. belfast, plymouth, eight or nine degrees first thing sunday, but only round about three there in norwich. and through the day on sunday then, we've got a high pressure sitting out towards the near continent, this frontal system moving its way in from the atlantic that is going to draw in these southerly winds all the way

from north africa. could be some dusty conditions in the skies as well as the mild air that we're going to be seeing. so things, i think, a little bit hazy with all that saharan dust around on sunday for some of us, some of it coming down in this rain that will arrive across northern ireland and western scotland later on in the afternoon. but a good deal of dry weather before that arrives, perhaps a little bit more cloud through parts of the midlands, south—west england as well. sunny spells either side of that and the top temperatures in the west up to around about 13 for the likes of glasgow and belfast. into monday, that frontal system has slipped its way a little bit further southwards and eastward, so it's likely to bring some rain across much of northern england. i think wales perhaps down towards the far south—west, just across parts of scotland, it'll turn to snow for a time, perhaps over the highest ground of the southern uplands and to the north and the cooler air we're looking at single figures, seven or eight degrees, still not particularly cold, but 14, possibly 15 in that warmer air down towards the south—east. so the week ahead still fairly unsettled in the north and west. showers at times, drier conditions further south and east. and for all of us,

it's a mild week ahead.

voice-over: this is bbc news. we'll have the headlines for you at the top of the hour, which is straight after this programme. my mother hasn't given birth in 1984. this birth certificate isn't real.

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