wand and her daughters attack on a mother and her daughters in south london. a team of british scientists and engineers [and in antarctica to test a new training to help forecast the impact of climate change. now on bbc news... unspun world withjohn simpson. hello and welcome to unspun world. is russia now starting to win its war against ukraine? the huge moral dilemma is between saving lives and sacrificing ukrainian territory, identity or independent existence.

what effect will south africa's genocide case have against israel at the international court of justice? the reason why this matters now is because these provisional measures have an immediate and binding effect on israel's ability to conduct its military operations in gaza. and british politics — after the coming election, what will be the biggest challenge facing the winner? trying to inspire and to take a divided country with you —i i think it's really, really difficult. i two years ago, the russian build—up on the borders of ukraine was starting. russian officials were assuring the world there'd be no invasion. when the absurdly overconfident russian attack began, it was largely beaten off. a lot of people thought ukraine was bound to win.

but the russians got better at fighting, and ukraine's supplies of cash and weaponry from america were cut by the republican party. ukraine's counteroffensive failed. there are disputes at the top level of ukrainian politics, and ukraine may now be forced to negotiate with russia or even concede defeat. over the past two years, we've often turned to vitaly shevchenko of bbc monitoring, who's himself ukrainian. he gave me his assessment of the situation that ukraine is now facing. if we were to ask about winning this war, i think... when you talk to people in ukraine or people who've been to ukraine, i can certainly detect a certain shift in perceptions, as though it's beginning to look that winning this war is by no means a guaranteed prospect for ukraine.

western support for ukraine is also not assured by any means. so i'm being told that people in ukraine, they are, in a way, waking up to the prospect of this going on for years and years and years. and, of course, right now, the prospect of negotiations is being mentioned by a lot of people. and the huge moral dilemma is between saving lives... ..and sacrificing ukrainian territory, identity or independent existence. is it a possibility that ukraine could actually lose, that russia could capture kyiv

and take over the whole country? impossible it's not, especially given all the concerns and questions about continuing western support and deliveries of munitions, for example, money as well. there's an election in the united states, of course, and that makes a lot of people in ukraine very jittery, apprehensive. if the tide turns in america, would europe follow? would europe be able to make up the difference, should america decide to scale down or phase out support for ukraine? if that happens, if ukraine stops receiving what it needs to defend itself, then this is precisely what vladimir putin is waiting to happen. i suppose it's more likely that there'd be peace talks than that there'd be an outright win

or lose, isn't it? there are several issues, of course, with the idea of sitting down to talk with vladimir putin or his people, one of which is, can he be trusted? supposing an agreement is reached, will he keep it or will he take that time to restock and pounce again under whatever pretext he can come up with? and looking at the intensity of rhetoric coming out of russia — and i watch russian state media for a living... ..it suggests that russia

is as unprepared for talks or a compromise with ukraine as ukraine itself. vitaly, i don't think i've ever heard you quite so pessimistic about the situation. well, that's the reality of it, when you approach the end of the second year of what is most definitely the worst time in the life of anyone who's got anyone from ukraine, relatives from ukraine, who grew up in ukraine. every morning you wake up and check your phone and what you see is more death and destruction. and sometimes there's very little... ..reason to think it'll be over soon. i don't think i'm alone in this. that's why so many people are saying now we're in it for many years to come. and if you ask those people, ok, so what will it take to make this end? it's very rare to see or hear a very

realistic or practical answer which would make this end very quickly. the international court ofjustice, the highest legal authority of the united nations, last week handed down an interim order to israel to do more to protect the civilian population of gaza. south africa, which brought the case against israel, had been hoping the icj would order an immediate ceasefire, but this didn't happen. now, the court will decide whether israel's attack on gaza constitutes genocide, as south africa claims it does. in freezing temperatures outside the court, anna holligan, the bbc�*s correspondent in the hague, explained the ins and outs of the case to me.

this case is probably being seen as one of the most important in the icj's history insofar as it's happening in real time. this isn't some kind of retrospective justice. the sense is here and around the world that these judges inside the peace palace here, home to the icj, could make a real difference to events that are happening on the ground. just in terms of what israel has said about this case, it says there is no case to answer under the genocide convention and accused south africa of committing a blood libel by bringing a case accusing israel of genocide when the genocide convention was set up after the holocaust. genocide is really difficult to prove under international law because there has to be evidence of intent. and that's why those statements by some israeli officials were referred to by south africa during the oral hearings here at the icj, because there has to be proof of intent to destroy

in whole or part an entire ethnic, racial, national or religious group. so that's the body of this case that south africa has accused israel of. but in terms of what's happened here over the last couple of weeks, they're focusing purely on provisional measures. and provisional measures have a much lower evidentiary bar. the judges have to be convinced that there is a plausible risk that the palestinians in gaza face real and imminent irreparable harm. this is going to take years and years to get a judgment out of the court, isn't it? and it'lljust be a sort of historical thing without necessarily having a present relevance, won't it? the reason why this matters now is because these provisional measures have an immediate and binding effect on israel's ability to conduct its military operations in gaza.

for example, they said israel must ensure its military doesn't commit any acts that could constitute violations of the genocide convention. israel must ensure there are no statements made in public that could be seen as incitement to genocide. israel must allow humanitarian access to the palestinians who remain in gaza, and it has to report back to this court within a month on how those actions are actually being enforced. this court was created by the international community to ensure that the kinds of acts that we saw during the second world war would never be committed again. and if countries want this kind of institution, they can't choose at some point to follow the rulings, and the next point not. and although this court doesn't have any direct enforcement mechanism, anyone who violates the ruling or refuses to comply with a ruling handed down by this court, the country that took it to court

can apply to the un security council. and so there will be political ramifications, too, undoubtedly for, for example, israel's backers to apply more political pressure in order to, if not achieve a ceasefire, then at least have some kind of humanitarian pause to allow food and water and vital medical supplies in. # hey, oh, the occupation has to go.# during the hearings, there were hundreds of people waving palestinian flags just across from the icj, chanting that there's a genocide being committed, holding up banners of nelson mandela, because of course, one of the reasons why south africa brought this case is because the country sees parallels with apartheid south africa. and then just down here, separated by police barriers, there were israeli supporters waving israeli flags and playing videos of the attacks

on the 7th of october. presumably, this must put huge pressure on the united states, on britain, on germany, other european countries which have been supporting israel so strongly. countries like the uk and the us will be conscious of any future ruling that finds israel in violation of the genocide convention. if that were to happen, it would mean that they would, in theory, be accused of being complicit, and that's something, inevitably, they will want to avoid. british politics are in an extraordinary state. the conservatives have been in charge for nearly 14 years... thank you. ..and during that time, there have been no fewer than five prime ministers, an extraordinary number, given that until recently,

prime ministers could expect at least four years in power. tony blair was prime ministerfor ten years. margaret thatcher for ii. by contrast, liz truss could only manage seven weeks. so, with an election looming, what lies ahead now? i asked the bbc�*s indefatigable political editor, chris mason. the working assumption on all sides now at westminster, when you speak to people privately, is that labour are likely, highly likely to win the election. but the psychology is fascinating, because labour are so concerned, because they look at the history books, about their capacity, frankly, to lose elections. so i think that psychology sort of motivates their approach, coupled with the fact that they are coming from so far behind. last time, in 2019, their worst performance at a general election since 1935. so to overhaul that in one go against the historically mighty electoral machine that is the conservative party

scares some of them, and they are desperate not to come across as complacent. on the other side though, you speak to conservative mps privately, and across the piece they assume that they're going to lose. it is as blunt and as bleak... very pessimistic. very depressed, aren't they? they are. they are attempting, with the fifth prime minister of their run in office, to win yet another term in office, having been in power since 2010. the history book suggests, put everything else aside, that is going to be incredibly difficult. we've seen over 30 years now, perhaps even longer, the effect that europe has had on the conservative party. is there any kind of equivalent issue now which might divide labour? i mean, could it be the middle east? so, take europe first, we know where keir starmer himself was when it came to the brexit referendum. he was pro remain.

he argued for a second referendum. he, and the labour leadership now, are desperate to avoid using the "brexit" word ever again, because they know that a good proportion of their own members are pro—european. a lot of the voters that historically had gravitated towards labour and then were drawn to borisjohnson were brexiteers. as far as the middle east is concerned, we've seen in the last few months the fractures within the labour party, some frontbenchers being sacked or resigning because they were demanding that keir starmer call for a ceasefire much more unequivocally, much earlier, and we've seen keir starmer pretty keen to ensure that you couldn't get a cigarette paper between either him and the prime minister nor him and president biden on the outlook on that conflict. there's likely to be a smallish caucus — 20, 30 — who are on the left of the movement and will make their views very passionately known.

now, how influential they are will be dependent on how big, if at all, there is a majority for the labour party. if it's a smaller majority, their influence would obviously be far greater. chris, in the last ten years, politics have become terribly tarnished in britain, the whole issue of the honours system and so forth. would labour be able to do anything about that, or in ten years' time, will people still be disillusioned and annoyed about politics? it actually frames the whole outlook of both of the big political parties at westminster, and indeed the others, in going into this campaign, that sense that there's an anti—politics mood. how do you communicate? how do you make promises in an anti—politics mood? and part of the labour strategy actually is to not over—promise, a,

because they would make the argument that they feel they can't afford to overpromise in a literal financial sense, but also, so the moon on a stick isn't affordable, but the moon on a stick wouldn't be believable either. so it's a massive challenge, but it's actually the central challenge really, isn't it? because i'm always conscious reporting on this postcode of westminster, of to what extent are people believing anything that's coming out of here. by the way, including out of the mouths of reporters as well as out of the mouths of politicians. well, everything gets sucked in. it's a black hole. exactly, and that's a bleak picture for democracy at large if that becomes too ever—present a view. tony blair had it lucky in 1997. i mean, it was a good time to be a prime minister. it's not a very good time to be a prime minister in 2024, is it? it isn't, no. and i think the combination of factors at the moment, which has weighed heavily around rishi sunak�*s neck, made it very hard for him to make an impression because of the sort of macro factors

that are just hard for any individual, impossible forany individual to shift. many of those would be there for keir starmer were he to become prime minister, and trying to inspire and to take a divided country with you when so many can point to either the difficulties they face day—to—day around the cost of living in a flat—lining economy, or they look on the international scale and the international picture and see a bleak and unstable and dangerous world, i think it's really, really difficult when you want to offer a sense of hope and vision, but you're paranoid about overpromising both for your own credibility, and also for the credibility of the whole... the whole trade of politics itself. north korea's idiosyncratic leader, kim jong—un, is talking and acting more aggressively than ever.

now, he seems to be threatening the very existence of his democratic neighbour, south korea. perhaps he's shaping up for a new relationship with donald trump, if trump becomes us president in november. trump, you recall, first called him little rocket man and then said they'd fallen in love. now, though, kim is louder and angrier than ever. what's going on? i asked yuna ku, reporter for bbc korean in seoul. it's not too surprising to see the relationship worsening under the current conservative south korean government taking a hard line on north korea. however, kimjong—un is emphasising his intention to break away from south korea rather permanently and remain hostile to each other. so, i'll say he has no intention to go back to a softer relationship, even if the progressive party takes power in south korea.

and why is that? why have we come to this point? south korea has an upcoming legislative election in april, so north korea might want to influence south korean voters to turn away from the ruling party by making them more anxious about a possible war situation. however, what is more significant is the second reason. there is an internal motive behind kim jong—un�*s speech this time, as more north korean residents, especially the young generation, are getting dissatisfied with the regime while yearning for a life in the south, so many of them are now engaging in shadow economy, which includes smuggling from china. and this eventually led to more north korean residents getting more exposed to south korean entertainment and news. so we can actually see kim jong—un taking steps to stop this trend in north korea.

for example, in 2020, pyongyang enacted a law that punishes a person watching or distributing south korean entertainment, even to death. how is it possible, in such a secretive and unpleasant society in many ways, to know what people are really thinking? there have been a number of accounts by north korean defectors about this situation, and recently bbc korean service also obtained footage filmed in 2022 showing two teenage boys sentenced to 12 years of hard labourjust by watching k—dramas in north korea. and according to south korean unification ministry, they said more than half of north korean residents who escaped to south last year were in their 20s and 30s, and they said their number one motive of asylum was their disagreement with north korean regime, compared to their past motive of coming to south korea

because of economic difficulties orfamine. tell me what the assumptions are in south korea about the influence that china has on north korea. i mean, can we assume that china is strongly, strongly against any question of kim jong—un launching a war of any kind? it is difficult to separate north korea from chinese influence, especially when it comes to economy. however, right now in south korea, experts are more aware of a north korean and russian relationship rather than north korea and china relationship. so russia might very well encourage kim jong—un to do whatever he wants, whereas china might be more concerned to hold him back? that's what many experts are analysing at this point.

and do you think kim jong—un�*s position is as strong as ever? or are there signs of weakness? kimjong—un is trying to hold more power and authority right now in north korea and experts are seeing it as a sign of his weakening position. he has been showing off his possible successor, kim ju—ae, his daughter... who is, what, 11, 12 or something? she's becoming 11 this year. the reason kimjong—un is showing her off to, like, missile test sites and many other official events is to show that there is something special about kim's family. but it is a pretty extraordinary thing that you would say, "here is my successor. "she's actually only just turned 11."

that is weird, isn't it? yeah, that is weird. but kim jong—un is trying to, by showing, illustrating himself as a very loving father and loving leader in north korea. yuna ku, bbc korea reporter in seoul. at the moment, all we seem to be hearing about is the possibility of a major war. britain's defence secretary says we're moving to a pre—war world. british generals are calling for a citizens' army. president zelensky says world war iii is just around the corner. and donald trump says that what he sees asjoe biden�*s weakness in dealing with iran will lead to, yes, a third world war. they've all got their reasons, of course. british generals want a lot more spent on defence. president zelensky wants more european help, and donald trump,

well, he wants to be president. but the possibility of war certainly exists. no—one wants to be like the famous british economist norman angell, who in 1910 wrote a book called the great illusion, proving with impeccable logic that a world war couldn't happen because the world's economies were so intertwined. we know now how easy it is to slip into war by accident. just as norman angell in 1910 forgot the dangerfrom pesky, out—of—control little countries like serbia, we've got north korea, iran and the houthis. the bookies still say a world war�*s pretty unlikely. one puts the odds at 20—1. but, of course, they probably said the same thing pre—1914. well, anyway, thank you for watching.

from the unspun world team, and from me, goodbye, until we meet again. hello. a bit of sunshine around full some of you today. overall plenty of cloud, especially tomorrow. an overriding theme for the weekend as her mother is for early february, also on the blustery side. today has been a north— south split was that this is front wobbles further north in the afternoon. south, plenty of cloud and a few glimpses of sunshine towards east anglia and the south—east. the cloud in the west big enough to produce drizzle over the hills and coasts. further north in england we will stay with sunshine, sunny spells in scotland and northern ireland. temperatures still well above average for early

february. it will be mild at cardiff as wales and scotland get their six nations campaign under way. always the chance of light rain and drizzle in the breeze with cloudy conditions dominating. tonight, the cloud sits there in the south. it will increase in the west. briefly clear for eastern parts. temperatures will take an initial dip but they were left on the night. seven to 11 degrees to start sunday promise. where to start for scotland and northern ireland. quite a bit of rain. on sunday. the rain will ease off in northern ireland for a time the further south you are. staying very cloudy further south with some spots of light rain and drizzle. many will be dry and few breaks in the cloud possible. the best of the sunshine will be in the coldest of areas, orkney and shetland. overnight sunday into monday low pressure pushes north to scotland. that will intensify the rainfall in

parts of the north and west highlands. here we could see 100 millimetres of rainfall sunday till the end of monday. cold and could produce sleet and snow in orkney and shetland. in the south back to a taste of misty and murky conditions on the hills. bit of sunshine breaks in the cloud and staying fairly mild. the colder air will tussle it out with milder air as we go through the week. in all the capital cities, temperatures will drop. rain at times but things could turn wintry later on in the week. see you soon.

live from london. this is bbc news iraq says 16 people, including civilians, were killed when the united states launched strikes on what it says were militias linked to iran. the us also attacked targets in syria. the strikes are retaliation for a drone attack last week on a us military base injordan which killed three soldiers. northern ireland's devolved government returns today — sinn fein�*s michelle o'neill will make history, becoming stormont�*s first irish nationalist leader. we will be live inside stormont here injust underan hour we will be live inside stormont here injust under an hour when we will be live inside stormont here in just under an hour when those historic events get under way. the hunt continues for a man suspected of a corrosive substance

attack on a mother and her daughters in south london. hello, i'm samantha simmonds. the iraqi prime minister says civilians were among 16 people killed in friday's attacks by the united states on what they say were pro—iranian militants in iraq. the syrian observatory for human rights says at least 18 people were killed there. the us strikes in syria and iraq were in response to a drone attack on a us military base last weekend, in which three soldiers were killed. us central command says its forces hit 85 targets in total. white house national security spokesmanjohn kirby said three facilities were hit in iraq and four were hit in syria. the us said iran's islamic revolutionary guards corp quds force and affiliated militia groups were struck.

these are new pictures released by us central command