tthis is bbc news, the headlines... applause. northern ireland's devolved government is restored after a two—year hiatus. sinn fein�*s michelle o'neill makes history as stormont�*s first irish nationalist leader. this is an assembly for all, catholic, protestant and the centre. despite our different views the public rightly demand that we work together and we deliver together. iraq's prime minister says civilians were among 16 people killed in united states�* attacks on what they say were

pro—iranian militias. the strikes were in response to a drone attack on a us military base, killing three american soldiers. a third successive week of protests against the far—right in germany. more than 100,000 people demonstrate in berlin. now on bbc news — newscast. so earlier this week we were chatting slogans with our fellow newscasters after an email that we received. and the question was, if we were a political party, what would our slogan be? that is fantastic, because in this year of one heck of a lot of slogans, we've got to up our game, haven't we? we've got to think of them. and we've had some suggestions. we have, we've had john on email who says our slogan would be oozing truth and stamina. and js on discord says, "make britain ooze again," which i do like, apart from it's not farfrom "make britain snooze again," is it?

which is a perennial concern. well, we're going to start this episode of newscast now, and you can decide which is the more apt! hello. it's james in the studio in westminster. and chris in westminster too. 0n on this episode, we're going to be talking about money, we, chris? on this episode we're going to be talking about money, aren't we, chris? money and tax and interest rates and everything economy, really. yeah, and a couple of guests, interesting guests on that in a minute. but before that, i've been speaking, in fact, to laura trott, the chief secretary to the treasury. and so we can, first of all, have a listen to what she had to say. hello. delighted to be on. thank you very much for coming in. so today's news, i suppose the first piece of news is interest rates not moving. yes. 5.25%. yes, they're sticking. sticking. is that a worry? well, i think it's good news

for families up and down the country that it appears that interest rates have peaked. that's incredibly important. i think it also speaks to the fact that inflation has come down significantly. you know, we know and people at home will be feeling the fact that inflation is now down. if you think about when rishi sunak first took over as prime minister a year and a bit ago, inflation was at 11%. it's now at 4%. that hasn't happened by accident. that's because of the actions of the bank and of the government. mainly the bank, no? no, i think it's really important when we talk about this, and i think most economists, all economists have recognised that the government has a huge role to play in this as well. i mean, just think about the autumn statement, right, that's assessed by the 0br, which is the statistician when it comes to these things, about whether it's inflationary or not. 0k? so it's absolutely vital that government plays its role with fiscal policy alongside the monetary policy. yeah, just to be clear, they're assessing to see whether it's inflationary, not to see whether it's going to bring inflation down. it's not quite the same thing. yeah, but you can undo the work of the monetary policy committee in a heartbeat. and by the way, it's very easy,

it's much easier to spend money in government and be inflationary than to do the opposite. and this is the point about why, you know, what we've done, it has been really difficult, like, really difficult in the last year. we've had to make some really difficult decisions which have been opposed by the labour party, which has meant that we are in this position where the economy has turned a corner and we're now able to do things like cut taxes. are you? yeah. more than you've cut already? no, ijust... cos the implication... the chancellor seems to be saying this week, i accept that of course, you've cut national insurance. yes. albeit the tax burden remains at a 70—year high. i think it's really important when we talk about the tax burden overall, because, yes, you're right, and that is because we spent £400 billion during covid and £100 billion supporting people's energy costs during putin's energy crisis but that's not uniform, right. like, we have made decisions within that to put the tax up for people on the highest tax brackets. right. their tax has gone up quite a lot. and for people on the lower tax

brackets, their tax is actually, if you look at it, it's come down from 2010 compared to what it would have been. so there's a nuanced picture within that. we've made some real decisions within that. but overall, we want the tax burden to come down and we will try and bring it down further when it's fiscally responsible to do so. yeah, what a caveat! how many times a day do you say "when it's fiscally responsible to do so?" whenever i possibly can! i wake up and have my breakfast when it is fiscally responsible to do so! i could imagine because the very clear implication, it's getting further on from an implication from the chancellor, he's not going to be able to cut taxes much more in the next budget, is he? well, i think what he's been clear about is that, you know, we don't have the final forecasts yet, but from initialforecasts, it looks like we won't have the headroom that we had at the autumn statement. we believe in low taxes. we think that low taxes do drive growth. that is really vital. there's evidence of that throughout the world. but we have to be responsible in the way that we've done this. i told you, i say fiscally responsible 25 times a day!

but we will only do that when it is right for the economy and when it's right for everybody listening to this podcast. 0r watching. you can do both. that's exactly right. listening or indeed watching. your economic argument, your principle, is you cut taxes, that allows the economy to grow, this is your philosophy, and everyone�*s better off. yes? in really simple terms. no, i say the prerequisite for that is to bring inflation down, because you cannot have sustainable growth in a very inflationary environment. it undermines business confidence, undermines consumer confidence. so the key thing is to bring inflation down. when you've got a low and stable inflationary environment, it allows us to really focus on growth. and that means when inflation is low, the monetary policy is generally more aligned with that as well. do you accept, though, that growth in the uk has been a problem for quite a long time and that that is linked to productivity, which has also been a problem and arguably stagnant for a long time?

and i mean pre—dating the pandemic here. so i would answer that in two ways. i think in terms of growth, again, if you look back a year and a bit ago, we were forecast to have the longest and deepest recession for 100 years. that was what the bank of england was saying. that's what the fiscal forecasters were saying. so, you know, we are in a position where we haven't had a really deep recession in the last year. that's really positive for people. but equally. it's a pretty low bar, though. no, it's not a low bar. people's living standards were predicted to fall really precipitously. that was, that would have been absolutely dreadful. and it's been really, like, i'm not here, i'm not in cloud cuckoo land. i know that it's been really tough for people in the last year, and i'm not taking away from that for a second. and it's really difficult for people to understand because, you know, things were forecast to be absolutely dreadful. and because of the steps that we and the bank have taken, we have avoided that and the economy is turning a corner. so that would be the first

thing that i would say. in terms of productivity, though, this is absolutely a structural issue with the uk economy. we have not been doing as well at this than other comparable countries. it's something that we are looking at. but then i also would say that in terms of our growth since 2010, we've grown faster than france and germany and japan, you know, a number of countries with much higher productivity, which makes that achievement, i think, even more significant. so what's the problem with productivity? it's not where it needs to be... i get that. why? so part of that is related to business investment, which is why we did full expensing at the autumn statement. and that is something where we have now one of the, i think, the most competitive regulatory environment around that, tax environment around that, in the g7, which is a really positive thing. yes, but, and i hearyou and i'm not taking away from that, but i'm just trying to take a step back and look, you know,

over the period of the last, say, ten or even 20 years, or certainly the period you've been in power over the past 1a years or so, what is the structural problem with productivity and why have you failed to get to grips with it, to be blunt? why has it taken you 1a years to figure that out? no, it's not... we've done a lot and things have improved. and also one of the things i'm looking at now is, is public sector productivity. that's part of the work that i'm doing, i took on in my role as chief secretary of the treasury. and also, you know, doing these tax cuts is really expensive, right? this cost over £10 billion. and there's a lot that we've had to do in the last 1a years which have been very expensive as well. so it'sjust, it's, you know, but this, i think, is something, and it's a real priority of the prime minister and the chancellor to push it through. so, ideologically, you have spent £10 billion on tax cuts

that could have gone into the nhs and schools. why did you do that? because we believe this is crucial to growing the economy and that is how you fund, that is how you fund public services ultimately in the long run. so you think, when is this big tranche of money going to come pouring in to the nhs as a result of these national insurance cuts you've made? well, if you look at what the 0br said is going to be the impact of both the spring budget and the autumn statement, in terms of the reforms that we made in that, they think it's going to boost growth by 0.5%. that's really significant, right? that's millions and millions and millions and millions of pounds for the economy. so we hope that over time, across the kind of forecast period, that is what is going to happen and that will be really good for our public services. butjust to be clear, so if you're looking at the 0br's forecasts that it published alongside the autumn statement, it's talking about real gdp growth in 2023 of 0.6%,

in 2024, this year, of 0.7%. and then, i think if we're looking ahead to 2025,1.4%. that's not bringing really significant money in to the nhs or other public services for years to come, is it? you can'tjust grow quickly overnight and the economy has suffered from some serious shocks, you know, the aftermath of covid, putin's energy crisis, this has been really significant for our economy, and what we're doing now is starting to turn it around. i also note that the monetary policy committee today, in its growth forecast, actually upgraded uk growth. now, this is a part of a path. you know, this is a plan that we have. it is starting to work. and that's why we need to stick to the plan and not go back to square one. look, you know what a cynic would say or even maybe not a cynic, even maybejust a political opponent

who takes a different view, which is the chancellor decided to spend this big chunk of money which he could have poured into public services on a national insurance cut, because there's an election around the corner, knowing fine well that labour look likely to win that election and it'll be them who have to fix the mess of the public services and not you. i completely refute that. so, we were talking before about full expensing, you know, national insurance, this is a tax cut for working people. and that's really important because it has a supply side effect, an effect on the workforce. so the 0br said that it's going to get tens of thousands more people into the workforce. that is extremely important. you mentioned before the fact that we have a high number of vacancies at the moment in the economy. this is going to be absolutely vital to fill those. so this is a real growth measure. this is a growth measure. sorry, but, those working people will have to wait, what, three, four, five years before they're in a position where they can hope that they won't have to wait six

months to get their hip replaced on the nhs or a year or however long. i'm not denying there are significant issues with the nhs waiting lists at the moment and we are working really, really hard to address those. we also put £6 billion, £6 billion into the nhs last year, in additional to help it deal with some of these issues. there will be more money coming for the next year. you know, this is, you cannot on any measure say that we're not investing in the nhs, but there are significant problems in the aftermath of covid. i mean, that is, and we have spent a lot of money to try and fix that and that is an ongoing issue that we are grappling with at the moment. and nobody doubts that covid had a huge impact. of course it had a huge impact. just to come quickly back to this idea, then, very strongly, you and the chancellor are signalling, i'm sorry, but we just don't have the room for further tax cuts in the immediate future. how is that going down in your party? i imagine there's quite a few people in in the ranks

of the conservative party who are not happy about that, who think you really should be doing more on tax cutting? we want to do as much as we can and that is fiscally responsible. i think my party is entirely aligned around the fact that we want to cut taxes where it's fiscally responsible to do so, that taxes are the path to, low taxes are the path to higher growth. but are you getting emails or whatsapps or texts or however however everyone�*s communicating these days from fellow mps saying, laura, where are our tax cuts? we're the party of tax cuts. what's going on here? we're not happy. as you can imagine, before a budget, we rightly receive a number of requests from colleagues, which we absolutely listen to. so there is unhappiness in the party ranks about the tax cuts. not at all. i mean, when i was a backbench mp, i was going up to the chancellor and the chief secretary to the treasury and saying, you know, i think this is what i want for my constituents. these are the things that i think my businesses would benefit from. are you enjoying that as much now? i am loving that, obviously. but no, it's, you know, it's what we should be doing.

this is an absolutely key part of the democratic process, is that you have mps coming forward with ideas, thinking about things, and i welcome that. i think that's a really positive thing. let's talk a little bit about what we heard there, and some other subjects of the week, with siobhan haviland, finally, i think the conservative party would say you were tough on crime sick and we have our mug back and how did you acquire it that we saw in the photograph of the autumn statement. you did not have possession of the mug but there was a mucous cast mug in the picture? i would be delighted if he were to give me a mug. i would be really pleased if you were to give me one. i have a very old daily politics in and i would love to have a newscast morgue to go alongside it. find a morgue to go alongside it. and a sliuhtl morgue to go alongside it. and a slightly disingenuous _ morgue to go alongside it. and a slightly disingenuous because i l morgue to go alongside it. and a slightly disingenuous because i am sure we did get someone in the treasury that newscast you can take

a newscast mug home with you. —— we did gift one to somebody in the treasury. let's talk a little bit about what we heard there, and some other subjects of the week, with siobhan haviland, who is the director—general of the british chamber of commerce. hi, siobhan. hi. and the former conservative cabinet minister david gauke, who among other things, relevantly, was chief secretary to the treasury. hi, david. what did you think of that interview? well, there's a lot of expectation management now happening. rather belatedly. until very recently, what we were getting from the treasury, including the chancellor of the exchequer, was, you know, tax cuts on the way, which i have to say is an old hand at the treasury sounded very strange to me, because you usually want to have a bit of a surprise. but i've always been a little bit sceptical that there was going to be quite as much money knocking around for tax cuts come the budget. we're in a pretty constrained position, the spending plans, frankly, for 2025 onwards, don't look terribly credible to me, i think they're much tighter than any government will be able to deliver. we've also got, we mustn't ignore the fact that the priority tax cut

for the is going to be fuel duty and stopping that rise, and that is going to cost 5 million quid or so. so, the idea that there's lots more money for income tax cuts or national insurance cuts or inheritance tax, whatever it might be, i mean, they might yet get lucky, but i think they are quite right to be warning, if they want a reputation for fiscal responsibility, they are going to have to tread carefully. siobhan, the curiosity here is that quite often government ministers prior to a budget will blame people like me, journalists, speculation and all the rest of it, and yet as david says, we have had a newspaper article from the prime minister i think it was a couple of weeks ago, from the chancellor as well, aerating this balloon around tax cuts, and now they seem to be gently trying to take a bit of air out of it. managing our expectations, maybe. yeah. so, look, tax cuts for consumers often made them feel a bit richer,

a bit more money in the pocket, which is clearly good for business because that is the angle i am coming at. and the tax burden is at a record high. indeed. but what we do say to the chancellor is, if we're thinking of it more long—term, chancellor, thriving businesses mean a thriving economy, morejobs, that is more taxes back to you, chancellor, that we can use to pay for our teachers and our nurses, and that is really where we need him to focus. which is what we were talking about, exactly, with laura trott. but i wonder, david, and this isjust a theory that has sprung into my head and is probably nonsense — do you think, you heard the prime minister and the chancellor talking about tax cuts because that was a message not for the country but for the party? i don't think that is nonsense, i think that is exactly - the point, and i think it looked very defensive. | there is also the hope - that the message that they will deliver for the country, it will be a little bit - like the 1992 general election, - norman lamont cut taxesjust before

then, and you have that as a dividing line. - so, there is an element _ where that is going to be the pitch they would like to deliver. but i do also think there is a sort of sense of, - how do we keep the party calm, there is a lot going on, - can we stop talking about rwanda, can we start talking _ about economic policy? and therefore let's talk now about big, bold tax cuts. i whereas normally, even if you could deliver it, you would keep quiet. - and of course there hasjust been this assumption, - the 0br is going to turn up and we are going to have . more money to spend, there was a sense that| | because interest rates are comingj down, that the government's debt interest payments would be falling, that was going to free up _ some money, but public- finances are quite complex, there's lots of moving parts. |yes, they might have got some extraj money there but they might have lost some money elsewhere. we don't really know. | but i'm also struck that we are kind|

of getting briefings of what the 0br is telling the chancellor. i was involved in loads of budgets and we didn't allow a running - commentary on the 0br's projections, it was all held back. _ just to explain to newscasters the way it works, so, the 0br does this rolling sequence for the chancellor and for the treasury of projections about the state of public finances, as they see it in the countdown to a budget or a fiscal event as westminster likes to call these things. and off the back of that, that provides the numbers from which the chancellor can start thinking about what they might do. siobhan, how do you, let's step away from the politics for a second to the economics, how would you describe the state of the british economy right now? yeah, so, we run the uk's largest economic survey, last quarter, back end of last year, we actually saw an uptick in confidence, which was a good thing. however what we are not seeing is that being translated into investment intentions.

when you say investment intentions, what do you mean? businesses intending to grow their business, invest in their business. i was in aberdeen this week, in glasgow, back in the home country, and hearing from businesses directly, it is tough. increased cost in raw materials, energy bills, trying to get people, people with the right skills, is the number one thing. so, margins are really, really tight. having said that, business leaders are entrepreneurs, they're can—do, they are saying to us, we know the market is out there, i know i can grow my business, i can grasp that opportunity, but it's just so difficult to do at the moment. so, what we are saying to the chancellor is, given that's the case, what we need to see is action on helping them with that investment and people. david, how do you read the current battle for economic credibility between the conservatives and labour?

so, you've got this argument going on, big public discussion around tax cuts ahead of the budget, you've got labour and the shadow chancellor rachel reeves and keir starmer seemingly filling out rooms with business leaders who are desperate to talk to them and i guess to see which way the wind is blowing as far as the opinion polls are concerned. but at the heart of it all is that central, always central battle for economic credibility? well, what i suppose i would say is that both parties are in more credible positions than they have been, so, you have got the, you know, clearly, keir starmer, rachel reeves, it's miles away from the jeremy corbyn, john mcdonnell world, they are really engaged with business. you do hear this message all the time, they're out everywhere, they are talking to people. they're setting forward some policies that are probably quite unpopular in terms of, for example, the bankers' bonus cap, i think they're right to say we are not going to reinstate that, but it is not an easy political message. so, they have come forward a long way, and business expects labour

to win the next election. but there is real engagement. but to be fair, jeremy hunt and rishi sunak are sensible, responsible types. we are not in the liz truss—kwasi kwarteng sort of stage here, at least you would hope not, which is why they still have to be a bit careful about all the tax cut promises because they don't want to get into that territory. so, i think both are competitive here, but labour are making real progress. you're talking about keir starmer talking to business, and that is exact what he's been doing today at an all—day labour business summit, and actually we can have a listen to what he had to say. all the hard work that's taken us l to this point, it's vindication, i a recognition of that guiding belief, notjust that labour. | could be the party of business, j that labour should be the party of business, that now, also, four years on, i

labour is the party of business. siobhan, you were there listening to keir starmer. i was indeed. are businesses all turning up to listen to him because they think he is going to win the election or because you like what you're hearing from him? they're turning up because labour have been engaging with them for quite some time now. this hasn'tjust come out of nowhere. they have been talking to us, to business, and they've been listening and they've been responding. when did that start, when did they start, i don't know, inviting you out for breakfast — how does it work? oh, gosh, i mean, i've been doing this job for two and a half years and you know as an organisation we are an apolitical organisation, we talk to people of all colours. sure. all political stripes, i should say. so, you know, all the way along. obviously, as you get close to an election it feels like people are ramping up. is it breakfast, is it coffees, how does it work? er, all of the above. it's round tables. we've taken...

i've been out withjohnny a couple of times in the last couple of months. johnny reynolds, the shadow business secretary. yeah, out to meet businesses in our chambers. wellingborough last week. and people tell him how they feel and he takes it on board, and what they've come back with, clearly they haven't got down into the detail yet, but what they've come back with is missions around growth, you know, rachel talked about tax plans, so, long—term, consistent... first name terms i'm hearing here! laughter. of course! interesting, wellingborough, of all places! it was a surprise. and just in the interests of balance, you were at| no 10 today as well. you've had a very busy day. i've had an excellent day, so, yes, i was at no 10. the pm held a panel with smes, celebrating smes, obviously... small and medium—sized enterprises. thank you, the backbone of our economy, i'm sure many of your listeners work in them. and it was great, we had a female entrepreneur there, she talked about how hard it was growing a business you get up, you work hard, you get kicked in the face, then you get punched in the face

and then you go to sleep, and then you do that again. she running a gym, a boxing gym? the pm made some quite funnyjoke about how he might well know about what it is like to get up, work hard, get punched in the face, go to sleep and do it again! which the room quite liked. that is a good story. ijust wonder, david, though, if... we've talked about the tension within the conservative party —| there must be tension- within the labour party here, because there are surely people i within the labour party who think the party shouldn't be. cosying up to business, it's the party of the workers, - that must be a tight rope for labour to walk, for sir keir starmer and rachel reeves to walk? j yes, i'm sure it must be, but the best thing about, the best thing to get discipline within a party is the prospect of winning. and so, if there is... i mean, no doubt there is a prospect of winning within the labour party, so, we're not hearing very much by way of ill—discipline there aren't any great complaints. the left have gone pretty quiet.

i think that is all we have time for on this episode of newscast. siobhan, thank you very much. thank ou ve siobhan, thank you very much. thank you very much- _ siobhan, thank you very much. thank you very much. david, _ siobhan, thank you very much. thank you very much. david, thank- siobhan, thank you very much. thank you very much. david, thank you - siobhan, thank you very much. thank you very much. david, thank you very much. you very much. david, thank you very much- nice — you very much. david, thank you very much- nice to — you very much. david, thank you very much. nice to see. _ you very much. david, thank you very much. nice to see. nice _ you very much. david, thank you very much. nice to see. nice to _ you very much. david, thank you very much. nice to see. nice to see - you very much. david, thank you very much. nice to see. nice to see you i much. nice to see. nice to see you too. much. nice to see. nice to see you tom newscast _ much. nice to see. nice to see you too. newscast from _ much. nice to see. nice to see you too. newscast from the _ much. nice to see. nice to see you too. newscast from the bbc. - good afternoon. a tale of two halves with our weather today. we've got brighter but slightly chilly weather across scotland and northern ireland but for most of england and wales it's a mild, blustery day and, in fact, that mild, blustery weather will head back north was for the second part of the weekend to scotland, northern ireland, but at the moment we are in this rather brisk westerly wind again with lots of showers, heavier than yesterday

with hail and thunder. even a little bit of winteriness because the hills and further south some sunshine for the northern and eastern england but this weather front is making its presence felt particularly around the ibc coasts. misty and murky with showers. but it isn't really mild, 15 degrees. chilly here but further south it is mild. going through the evening and overnight, we will find that weather front pushing back northwards and it starts to reinvigorate. the main story, actually, for sunday and monday, particularly across western scotla nd. particularly across western scotland. that is more like the daytime temperature we're seeing in february. sunday, very misty and murky around the hills and close to my coasts in the south and west. rain this time, lots of rain for western scotland in southern and central and western areas here. if anything, the wind a little stronger than tomorrow and less sunshine in south. in the north, 50—70 millimetres of rain and double that over the hill so met office warning

saving forces sunday night into monday and could be some winteriness over the hills of that engages with cold air which will still be with us further north and it looks like a cold in the far north but again, for the most part, it is mild because we are in what we term and warm sector. we have got this tropical maritime air coming in what we term and warm sector. we have got this tropical maritime air coming up at the atlantic certain laden with cloud and moisture but also to is mild under south—westerly wind direction and stuff going yet more rain gutters on monday as you can see the potential to smoke the northern isles deepening on how final that gets and then it to play southwards as we head towards tuesday. it is going to hang around for a couple of days and we potentially have further areas of low pressure developing along our weather front and throwing with it yet more rain, strong winds and potentially even some snow in the north. 0nce and potentially even some snow in the north. once it finally clears away there is just a hint that towards next weekend we could see something a little colder stay

tuned. live from london. this is bbc news northern ireland's devolved government is restored after a 2—year hiatus. sinn fein�*s michelle 0'neill makes history as stormont�*s first irish nationalist leader. this is an assembly for all, catholic, protestant and centre. despite our different outlooks, the public rightly demand that we work together and that we deliver together. iraq's prime minister says civilians were among 16 people killed in united states' attacks on what they say were pro—iranian militias. former pakistan prime minister imran khan and his wife are jailed for seven years after a court declares their marriage illegal. and british scientists and engineers arrive in antarctica

to test a new drone that will help forecast the impact