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tv   The Context  BBC News  February 9, 2024 8:30pm-9:01pm GMT

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play more to come on that. sport, and for a full round—up, from the bbc sport centre, here's lizzie greenwood—hughes. thanks. we're starting with football, and premier league managers have given short shrift to any ideas about bringing blue cards into the elite english game. the sport's lawmakers, ifab, are considering a possible trial of the cards, which would be given out by referees to temporarily send players to a sin bin for cynicalfouls. blue cards are already being used at grassroots level for dissent, but the premier league has already ruled them out for now. and liverpool'sjurgen klopp is one of many managers today who've made it clear they're not in favour of the idea. they want to test it. i have no problem with testing.
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but if that's the first step to agreeing or already being sure that it will happen... but i don't know that, to be honest. i have no idea how...that�*s the first time about it. and, yeah, it doesn't sound like a fantastic idea in the first moment, but actually i can't remember when the last fantastic idea came from these guys, if they ever had one. moving onto the weekend's action, and harry kane faces his biggest game since moving to germany and the race for the bundesliga title. his bayern munich side, who are the defending champions, are away to the league leaders bayer leverkusen, who are unbeaten and are two points ahead of kane's side with 14 games left to play. there's an expectation to win this year. unfortunately, leverkusen started amazingly well and are still undefeated. it's important game which i'm excited for.
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of course the personal stuff is great, but i've made it clear i want to be winning team trophies and that's one of the things that's missing from my career so far. as always i'm not going to panic either way. i need to keep my head down, keep doing my best for the team. hopefully that starts with a good win on saturday. it'sjust the it's just the challenge it'sjust the challenge of it's just the challenge of tomorrow but it's_ it's just the challenge of tomorrow but it's not— it's just the challenge of tomorrow but it's not the final challenge. there — but it's not the final challenge. there is— but it's not the final challenge. there is going to be a next one. for sure it's _ there is going to be a next one. for sure it's an— there is going to be a next one. for sure it's an important game, but three _ sure it's an important game, but three point, it will mean not a definitive _ three point, it will mean not a definitive thing. so for sure, it's not hard — definitive thing. so for sure, it's not hard. we are used to preparing for big _ not hard. we are used to preparing for big games. today's hearing into inappropriate behaviour by the head of red bull in formula i ended today without any resolution. this was related to his behaviour towards a female employee and it is believed it could be weeks
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before the matter is resolved. the former olympic and world swimming championjames magnussen has announced he's willing to take banned drugs to try to break the 50—metre freestyle record. the austalian, who's 32, says he'd come out of retirement to take part in the proposed enhanced games, where doping is allowed, in order to try to break the world record and win nearly £800,000. magnussen would need to shave more than half a second off his personal best time to beat the current record, and the time clearly wouldn't be officially recognised. but the games�* organisers are pledging millions in prize money. the world anti—doping agency has been critical of the enhanced games, saying it's "unsafe, dangerous to athletes" and flies in the face of fair play. the former tennis world number one simona halep says she's confident of a return to the sport after her appeal against a four year doping ban finished at the court of arbitration for sport. the romanian, who won two grand slams including wimbledon, was suspended after testing positive for a banned substance at the 2022 us open. it was a long hearing, but what i
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can say is that i had the chance to show my defence and i really believe that the truth is going to come out. and the day to be encore is going to be soon. i cannot speak more, so i have to await the decision and then i will be able to give more information. and that's all the sport for now. thank you very much for that. while you were away, we have been seeing reports of an earthquake in hawaii, magnitude 6.3 trucking just south of hawaii's big island. i'm told it was quitejealous we will hawaii's big island. i'm told it was quite jealous we will see what sort of damage it has cost at the surface but no reporting on that at the moment. apparently directly below the active kilauea volcano, and unclear at this moment whether interruption is imminent. so a 6.3 earthquake in hawaii. in other news, we are watching events in the middle
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east. there is some reporting which we are trying to stand up from cairo that hamas, who are of course in negotiations with mediators from qatar and the us, may have left cairo unable to reach agreement on terms for that proposal for a cease—fire. no way to the current obstacles that the two sides have set for one another. so we will perhaps get you some reporting on that as well. let's focus on something that happened today here in london. prince harry has settled his remaining claims against mirror group newspapers for phone hacking and invasion of privacy. through his barrister, harry said today that his case had uncovered the "shockingly dishonest way" the daily mirror had acted for many years. and he singled out piers morgan for criticism, who was the paper's editor at the time, saying he knew "perfectly well" what was going on. the sum of damages prince harry will receive hasn't been made public. the mirror group said it was pleased to have reached an agreement and to move forward from events "that took place many years ago".
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here is prince harry's lawyer, david sherbourne, delivering that statement on his behalf. "after our victory in december, mirror group have finally conceded the rest of my claim, which would've consisted of another two trials, additional evidence and 150 more articles. everything we said was happening at mirror group was in fact happening, and indeed far worse, as the court ruled in its extremely damaging judgment. as the judge has said only this morning, we have uncovered and proved the shockingly dishonest way in which the mirror acted for so many years and then sought to conceal the truth. in light of this, we call again for the authorities to uphold the rule of law and to prove that no—one is above it. that includes mr morgan, who was editor and knew perfectly well what was going on, as thejudge held." the former daily mirror editor
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and broadcaster piers morgan has given his reaction to reporters. uh, what do i think? i think that... listen, i think that invading the privacy of the royal family is utterly reprehensible, and on that i share prince harry's opinion. ijust wish he'd stop doing it. what about you ? do you wish you hadn't done it? typical pierce morgan. for more on this, i'm joined by thejournalist and media law expert david banks. a settlement is not a ruling so is there anything we should read into that or understand from the way this has ended? ~ ~ . has ended? well, i think given what happened before — has ended? well, i think given what happened before christmas - has ended? well, i think given what happened before christmas when i happened before christmas when prince harry won the sort of test cases, you know a sample of stories have been looked at by the judge and he had been decided that they
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probably were the result of hacking and other activities, given that result and the fact that already won £40,000 in damages had been awarded, it was probably on the cards that things were looking great for the rest of the claim, and another 115 stories, and so a settlement would seem a sensible way to draw a line under it, which is what the daily mirror hoping to do now. {iii under it, which is what the daily mirror hoping to do now. of course i don't want to _ mirror hoping to do now. of course i don't want to draw _ mirror hoping to do now. of course i don't want to draw a _ mirror hoping to do now. of course i don't want to draw a line _ mirror hoping to do now. of course i don't want to draw a line on - mirror hoping to do now. of course i don't want to draw a line on it, - mirror hoping to do now. of course i don't want to draw a line on it, his l don't want to draw a line on it, his team at least, when it comes to piers morgan. they have called for the police to uphold the rule of law and continue their investigation. do you think piers morgan will face prosecution? i you think piers morgan will face prosecution?— you think piers morgan will face prosecution? i hesitate to make predictions. _ prosecution? i hesitate to make predictions, but _ prosecution? i hesitate to make predictions, but there _ prosecution? i hesitate to make predictions, but there is - prosecution? i hesitate to make predictions, but there is a - prosecution? i hesitate to make predictions, but there is a big . predictions, but there is a big difference between winning a civil case like this where the standard of proof in the core is a balance of probabilities, ie getting over 50-50, probabilities, ie getting over 50—50, and amassing enough evidence to take a criminal prosecution where
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the standard of proof is as humorous will be familiar with is beyond a reasonable doubt. that's a very different standard of proof and we are talking about events more than 14 or so years ago. 14—15 years ago it even before that, so getting witnesses and getting evidence to that sort of standard for criminal prosecution is quite a mountain to climb. but never say never. that's a matter for the police to make that decision. . ., , , , , decision. prince harry believes this will brin: decision. prince harry believes this will bring about _ decision. prince harry believes this will bring about positive _ decision. prince harry believes this will bring about positive change - will bring about positive change that will benefit all of us. i heard calvin mckenzie, former editor of the sun today, save all the reforms of already been enacted in papers a very different places these days and are bound by very different rules. do you think there is further to go, as harry suggests, or not? i’m do you think there is further to go, as harry suggests, or not? i'm sure --eole as harry suggests, or not? i'm sure people will— as harry suggests, or not? i'm sure people will be — as harry suggests, or not? i'm sure people will be out _ as harry suggests, or not? i'm sure people will be out there _ as harry suggests, or not? i'm sure people will be out there who - as harry suggests, or not? i'm sure people will be out there who are . people will be out there who are suffering egregious wrongs by certain journalists at certain times, but i think the culture and certainly my experience of working
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in newsrooms post lever seven, the culture is very different and the idea thatjournalists as a massive course would intrude into people's privacy has certainly vastly diminished. i do say sometimes these behaviours don't happen in individual cases, but it is not quite the culture that existed before all of this came to light. so to a certain extent that if the case that we have already seen these things, but maybe harry's case is a reminder of people of these wrongs and the need to change culture as in newsrooms but the real worry for lost people is not necessarily mainstream media behaviours but the stuff that's going on on social media, which is completely unregulated. not bound by these or apparently bound by these laws. some think we all should _ apparently bound by these laws. some think we all should focus _ apparently bound by these laws. some think we all should focus on _ apparently bound by these laws. some think we all should focus on in, they become a think you very much for that. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. bbc news, bringing you different stories from across the uk.
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shoplifting offences went up by more than a third in wales last year. in newport, gwent police say shoplifting now accounts for 10% of all crime. this man had been wanted on a recall to prison for shoplifting offences and had continued to offend since he'd got out. businesses say this is typical of what they see, repeat offenders stealing on a daily basis. major retailers, and in particular meat and alcohol products, are key targets. but seemingly nowhere is safe. it's a constant problem for us. i mean, every day the staff will find empty hangers where something's been taken. i think they're possibly a mix of people stealing from us out of necessity because they don't have any clothes to put on their child. they don't have a winter coat. they need one. but equally, it's about, you know, the organised crime gangs. for more stories from across the uk, head to the bbc news website.
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the ukrainian president, volodymyr zelensky, dismissed yesterday his top general, valerii zaluzhny after weeks of speculation that a conflict between the president and the military was coming to a head. the general�*s dismissal comes as ukraine approaches the second anniversary of russia's invasion. and at a perilous moment, with ukrainian troops stalled on front—line positions, short of ammunition, artillery and soldiers. the two sides have launched fierce counter offensives against one another, and yetjust 900 square kilometres of land has changed hands in this second year of the war, compared with 130,000 in the first. the bbc�*s analysis editor ros atkins has been looking at three locations on the front—line and what they tell us about the conflict. it's almost two years since russia's invasion of ukraine, and the war has all but ground to a halt. this is the front—line a year ago marked in blue. this is the front—line now. it's hardly moved.
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in 2022, the first year of the war, 130,000 square kilometres of territory changed hands between russia and ukraine. in 2023, it was 900. and this isn't through a lack of trying. last year, there was a major counter—offensive from ukraine, and russia has made moves, too. but a breakthrough hasn't come. and to understand why, bbc verify�*s looked at three locations. they're all on the front—line. first, robotyne. it's a small village that was retaken by ukraine last summer. it's important because it's close to russia's supply line to crimea. russia annexed crimea in 2014. it's a vital location on the black sea. but while ukraine retook robotyne, it hasn't been able to advance, which highlights our first reason the war isn't moving. one of the things that has been underestimated are russian defences. so i think underestimating those defences has been one part of why there hasn't been
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a major breakthrough. the white lines on this map show russia's multiple defences south of robotyne. these include anti—tank defences known as dragon's teeth and landmines, too. the depth of russia's defences is one of the reasons the war has slowed. another can be seen in the village of krynky. it's in territory controlled by russia on the eastern side of the dnipro river. and after months of trying, ukrainian forces managed to cross the water and take part of krynky. but again, they struggled to push on. not least because technology is dominating. both sides are using weaponised drones known as uavs. this ukrainian video shows a russian soldier being monitored by a drone and then attacked. russia uses drones extensively, too, just as both sides use artillery extensively. and all of this technology
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is shaping the war. the impact on restricting movement, ienning troops in place of the large volumes of artillery fire, particularly now from the russian side, with ukraine getting increasingly short of that ammunition, but also lots and lots of sort of first—person uavs, is making it very hard to generate offence momentum without huge casualties, the strength of the weaponry, the strength of russia's defences. those are two reasons the war slowed. 0ur third location is adviitka. it's a town close to the russian—held city of donetsk, and there's been fierce fighting there for months. it's mostly held by ukraine. but again, progress has been elusive, not least because of how many troops russia has. so every day there are new forces, regardless of the weather, - regardless of anything, of losses. and the losses are very heavy. the us estimates that 13,000 russian troops were killed or wounded just in this part of the front line between october and
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december last year. russia is able to sustain these losses in part because prisoners, such as these men, are being released en masse to fight. russia's ability to continue despite these losses of men and equipment is one factor in avdiivka. there's another two. we don't have enough ammunition, unfortunately. we are outnumbered in everything. more broadly, ukraine's defence minister says a shortage of ammunition is a very real and pressing problem. and this lack of ammunition connects to a final factor — the decline in military aid from the west. this month, the eu signed off $53 billion worth of military aid. last month, the uk pledged £2.5 billion worth. that's over $3 billion. but in washington, new funding is yet to be approved, and as a whole, western military aid dropped sharply in the later months of last year. if that continues, the war may start moving again, but not as the west would want.
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it's really critical that western leaders understand that they need to act quickly to stop this becoming a scenario where, far from a stalemate, the russians are actually starting to really make offensive progress again. maybe the us will deliver new funding, but underneath this issue, there's an uncomfortable truth. even if the money is there and even if you ramp up the production, it doesn't mean that you can outcompete russia at this stage. all of which means that ukraine, at vast cost, is pursuing a victory which, for now, appears out of reach. but it fights on. live to partick bury, associate professor in security at the university of bath. he's also a former british army captain and served in afghanistan. always good to have you on the programme. we will place some images from this interview that tucker carlson did with vladimir putin last night and what it revealed to us, not much, but it did reveal that he is intent on carrying this on as
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long as it needs to carry on. as of this is a moment of truth for the west. do you see a tipping point coming if they don't pony up with this money?— this money? potentially, yes, christian- _ this money? potentially, yes, christian. i— this money? potentially, yes, christian. i think— this money? potentially, yes, christian. i think the - this money? potentially, yes, christian. i think the question j this money? potentially, yes, l christian. i think the question is really, and the report there was really, and the report there was really very good. the defensive war so far has really been on the ascendance. the with the ukrainians can defend against the russian advance and in the way the russians were able to defend against the ukrainian offensive last summer. that has shown related the the nature of surveillance is making it very difficult to mass in secret which is what is needed to break through somewhere. and so it becomes a war of attrition. so i still think that problem is faced by the russians, and they have not really got into a combined arms groove as it were where they are able to force a way through yet. but i do think momentum is with them at the moment definitely, and they are running things out slowly. the problem is if
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that becomes a difficulty and they can push through but so far there is no evidence yet, all of the mood music is definitely shifting from the optimism of the ukrainian offensive now to being with the russians. so i think that's one of the crucial things i do think, yes, if a does not come from to accumulate the states, it has got to the first hurdle in the senate and hopefully things can start to get moving, really ukraine are fighting with a hand tied behind their back or even two hands behind her back. it's a small nation with a smaller population and a smaller industrial output, and it really needs the support of the wider west. russia has put its economy on a war footing and it's going for it. if this is the people as we seen, and i think the people as we seen, and i think the west needs to look up in terms of its industrial capacity here. that is a contrast that relate for all the talk, we are not on a war footing, not in europe and certainly not in the us and you might�*ve heard
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joe biden the last few minutes saying it would be criminally negligent not to get this money to ukraine as it is a critical time. what i'm seeing, patrick, and what concerns me and i'm hearing from leaders in estonia and denmark and sweden and finland, countries that are now preparing for war. they are facing up to the reality of what's coming. facing up to the reality of what's cominu. ., , ., coming. absolutely. lafayette introduced _ coming. absolutely. lafayette introduced conscription - coming. absolutely. lafayette introduced conscription in - coming. absolutely. lafayette introduced conscription in the| coming. absolutely. lafayette - introduced conscription in the last few weeks. denmark has said that the warning today that there is a window of opportunity and is echoing the uk, sweden, germany and i would say this is probably based on a shared piece of intelligence which they have all then corroborated or put their analysis on, but i think there is what the concerning thing is you talk about with vladimir putin, his intent and capability. i think it's very difficult tojudge intent and capability. i think it's very difficult to judge his intent and he said yesterday that tucker carlson i don't intend to roll into pole but he said that about ukraine.
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the intent question was always looming about what they want to do, but the thing is because they are on their war footing but the thing is because they are on their warfooting now, they are gaining capability. and they are on a warfooting and gaining capability. and they are on a war footing and europe is gaining capability. and they are on a warfooting and europe is not gaining capability. and they are on a war footing and europe is not and is trying to play catch up essentially, and that's the risk and because of that, there is potential worse course of action pass to what a war with nato now, and that's why these countries are sounding the alarm. . ., , ., these countries are sounding the alarm. .., , alarm. echoes of history everywhere. patrick, that — alarm. echoes of history everywhere. patrick, that you _ alarm. echoes of history everywhere. patrick, that you very _ alarm. echoes of history everywhere. patrick, that you very much - alarm. echoes of history everywhere. patrick, that you very much coming l patrick, that you very much coming on the programme. let's talk a bit about something related to the weather. fires in south america, floods in california, there is plenty of evidence that el nino effect is supercharging the changes in our climate, but scientists are now predicting that el nino will disappear within months and instead be replaced by la nina. in fact, forecasters at the national weather service are already on la nina watch, projecting with a 55% chance that this pattern, which is the opposite of el nino, will develop by august. it could have major consequences for our global weather, with a stronger hurricane season expected and much drier conditions.
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well, to discuss what a switch to la nina could mean, i am joined by gavin schmidt, director of the nasa goddard institute for space studies and co—founder of the award—winning climate science blog realclimate, a blog about climate science written by climate scientists. you are the exact person to tell us the difference between el nino and la nina. what is it?— la nina. what is it? yes, so these are things — la nina. what is it? yes, so these are things that _ la nina. what is it? yes, so these are things that are _ la nina. what is it? yes, so these are things that are phenomenal. l la nina. what is it? yes, so these i are things that are phenomenal. you see in the tropical pacific. during an el nino event, you get this rush of warm water towards the coast of america, these big red spots and temperature patterns there. and that in a la nina event, it goes the other way and you see cool spots there. and it turns out that that has a real ramification notjust for what's happening right in the tropics, but also for rainfall patterns in the mid—latitudes, especially california and from america, but then also in indonesia and australia and even in africa. were we can track these things. so
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it's part of the natural cycle of the climate and part of the weather effectively, and it slashes back and forth... is effectively, and it slashes back and forth... , , ,.,.'., forth... is it sloshing back and forth... is it sloshing back and forth quicker? _ forth... is it sloshing back and forth quicker? as _ forth... is it sloshing back and forth quicker? as climate - forth... is it sloshing back and i forth quicker? as climate change is coming to beget more of these el nino, la nina effects? kind coming to beget more of these el nino, la nina effects?— nino, la nina effects? kind of interesting. it's _ nino, la nina effects? kind of interesting. it's very - nino, la nina effects? kind of interesting. it's very hard i nino, la nina effects? kind of interesting. it's very hard to i nino, la nina effects? kind of. interesting. it's very hard to tell. there was a good paper recently that suggested that the la nina events are becoming longer so you would see more la nina events happening one year and another gear of la nina while the el nino events may be becoming a little bit more intense. it is a very noisy system so it's very hard to say exactly how climate change is it it. i think it's best to think of this as climate change is causing everything to get warmer and then on top of that, we have this up and down associated with el nino and la nina also patients. when we have a el nino, we tend to have warmer global temperatures and we have a la nina, a bit cooler. what
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have a la nina, a bit cooler. what will beaet have a la nina, a bit cooler. what will beget stronger _ have a la nina, a bit cooler. what will beget stronger hurricanes over the next year or so? so will beget stronger hurricanes over the next year or so?— the next year or so? so there is a very clear — the next year or so? so there is a very clear pattern _ the next year or so? so there is a very clear pattern of _ the next year or so? so there is a very clear pattern of it's - the next year or so? so there is a very clear pattern of it's called i very clear pattern of it's called a tele— connection, so a connection from the tropical pacific to the atlantic and it tends to when there is a la nina give us more hurricanes during that season. and conversely in el nino, you tend to get less. but it's a tendency, not a very strong prediction. find but it's a tendency, not a very strong prediction.— but it's a tendency, not a very strong prediction. and la nina, i think it brings _ strong prediction. and la nina, i think it brings drier _ strong prediction. and la nina, i think it brings drier weather, i strong prediction. and la nina, i. think it brings drier weather, which must be a concern because we have already seen that there are plenty of places around the world that have been under persistent drought. yeah. been under persistent drought. yeah, does not been under persistent drought. yeah, does rrot range _ been under persistent drought. yeah, does rrot range dry — been under persistent drought. yeah, does not range dry weather— does not range dry weather everywhere. where we are seeing dry weather, yeah, and a el nino, we are seeing a lot of atmospheric rivers coming off the tropical pacific and hitting california and that's been part of the massive amounts of rainfall you've been seeing there
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recently. and then if it goes back into a la nina, we would expect that to be drier again and the same for kind of the mirror image in south america. and then were that rain is going, it's going to the other side of the pacific where you would see more rain in australia, indonesia and those kinds of areas.- more rain in australia, indonesia and those kinds of areas. thank you ve much and those kinds of areas. thank you very much for— and those kinds of areas. thank you very much for coming _ and those kinds of areas. thank you very much for coming on _ very much for coming on explaining that, gavin schmidt there explaining the la nina effect which a 55% chanceit the la nina effect which a 55% chance it will be with us by the mid summer. let me show you a live shot of the white house wherejoe biden is meeting with 0laf scholz, they have been discussing in front of an open fire the last few minutes nato and funding of ukraine. we'll be criminally negligent setjoe biden were we not to supply ukraine with the funding that it needs. i will play you that sound the other side of the break and also we are watching news of an earthquake in
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hawaii, quite a big one as well, quite shallow. which will try and bring you more news on in the course of next hour. the panel coming up from a stay with us, we are right back. hello there. the snow that's now falling is restricted to the hills of scotland. elsewhere, well, we've seen some rain around that has led to some flooding. this is the picture earlier on in cambridgeshire. together with the heavy rain, of course, there's been some snow melt, and that's why there are so many flood warnings. most of the flood warnings still across the midlands and southern england. the numbers may drop this weekend. it looks like it should be turning a bit drier. at the moment, though, this weather front is pushing torthwards, taking wetter weather northwards, particularly into scotland. and this is where we've got the last of the colder air. elsewhere, we've seen temperatures rising in the milder air as it's moved its way northwards. and with those rising temperatures, some of the snow has been melting.
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this was the picture earlier on in staffordshire. now, if i show you the radar picture. the blue is rain, so we've got these bands of rain moving northwards again. and the snow, the white there, sleet and snow getting restricted to scotland, and increasingly that's becoming confined to highland and grampian, where above about 300m there could be 20cm snow, so it is quite high elevations. we've got some rain elsewhere and the strong easterly wind that we've had will gradually ease overnight. but we'll see some further rain moving across northern england, into southern scotland and over northern ireland. england and wales actually turning drier and clearer. it could be a little bit chillier in the south than it was last night. all depends on the amount of cloud and mist and fog as well. and we could see some of that mist and fog through the midlands heading towards lincolnshire for a while. 0therwise, some sunshine coming through, some sunshine for northern england this time, and northern ireland and eventually across southern scotland as it turns drier. what's left of any rain, sleet and snow is really in the far north of the country. there will be some showers much further south, most of those
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into south—west england and south wales. those temperatures continuing to rise and getting up to 7 degrees widely in scotland on saturday. the last of the cold air away from northern scotland is getting moved away by that weather front. things will be much brighter in the north—west of scotland. still got low pressure close by for sunday, could be a bit of rain actually running northwards up these north sea coasts. 0therwise, some sunshine breaking through the cloud eventually, leading to a scattering of showers in the west and the south, nothing particularly heavy. still quite gusty winds through the english channel. otherwise, the winds will be lighter. temperatures continuing to rise in scotland. but further south, it may turn a little cooler.
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hello, i'm christian fraser.
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you're watching the context on bbc news. the president of mexico, sisi, did not want to open up the gate to allow humanitarian material to get in. i talked to him, i convinced him to open the gate. he described president sisi of egypt as the president of mexico. so i think — you know, there will be a view that a lot of that work was undone in this sort of damage limitation exercise by that slip—up. you're left to wonder why this - report spends time making gratuitous and inappropriate criticisms of the president. _

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