and looking at exactly where those votes have gone and it is of interest to him and the boundary changes of course will be absolutely huge in terms of changing the shape of the next general election.— general election. hannah, i'm “ust general election. hannah, i'm just been _ general election. hannah, i'm just been looking _ general election. hannah, i'm just been looking at _ general election. hannah, i'm just been looking at the - general election. hannah, i'm just been looking at the bbc | just been looking at the bbc news life page that's up and running, there is a live demo candidate saying, you'll be very hard to wind down there, we haven't heard much about the lib dems, they are not necessarily much in the running down there? i necessarily much in the running down there?— down there? i don't think so, reall , down there? i don't think so, really. if _ down there? i don't think so, really, if we're _ down there? i don't think so, really, if we're honest. - down there? i don't think so, really, if we're honest. theyl really, if we're honest. they got around 7% of the vote last time, they are in charge of the south gloucestershire council, they do very much have a presence but i think in terms of national politics and fighting, a kind of national campaign this is very much being seen as a two horse race between labour and the conservatives. i would say it really has been us proper two horse race, this isn't

something we can talk about it tonight labour quietly confident that they're going to win it, as if that's completely normal and expected, that does involve overturning a majority of more than 11,000, that isn't something would necessarily be perceived as a kind of easy. while we can sort of see it as a two horse race, make that point of what we are expecting to see we are in a remarkable time and politics in terms of the types of seats that are in place. the types of seats that are in lace. �* the types of seats that are in . lace, �* ., ., the types of seats that are in lace. �* . ., ., , the types of seats that are in lace. ~ . ., ., , ., place. and, hannah, any idea now when _ place. and, hannah, any idea now when we _ place. and, hannah, any idea now when we might - place. and, hannah, any idea now when we might get - place. and, hannah, any idea now when we might get the l now when we might get the result? ~ ., ., , , result? we are hoping between 2-3. i result? we are hoping between 2-3- i think— result? we are hoping between 2-3- i think i — result? we are hoping between 2-3. | think | said _ result? we are hoping between 2-3. | think | said to _ result? we are hoping between 2-3. i think i said to you - 2—3. i think i said to you earlier, three o'clock. the turnout came about 45 minutes ahead of what we've been told, that would make it may be 2:15am, but will have to see how quickly they get these votes counted. i how quickly they get these votes counted.— how quickly they get these votes counted. i really should be keeping — votes counted. i really should be keeping an _ votes counted. i really should be keeping an eye, _ votes counted. i really should be keeping an eye, you - votes counted. i really should be keeping an eye, you are i be keeping an eye, you are

right this time, so will try to hold to that, hannah, thank you very much indeed. also with us is polling guru sirjohn curtice now, professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. sirjohn, thank you of course for being with us. i wanted to start, we were talking about willingboro with harry, and there is quite a lot on social media saying labour going to win this. you have your ear to the ground, what are you hearing at the moment respect well, it's certainly true that twitter, including some professional journalists twitter, including some professionaljournalists on twitter, which perhaps is more important, are saying both the labour sources and conservative sources are in agreement that labour have won the constituency, just to remind everybody, this is the more difficult of the two by—elections tonight for labour to win, it requires an 18% swing, it requires the kind of swing, it requires the kind of swing not far short of the over 20% swing set labour security is the by—elections back in autumn. iii

is the by-elections back in autumn-— is the by-elections back in autumn. ., , is the by-elections back in autumn. . , , autumn. if indeed that ends up bein: the autumn. if indeed that ends up being the result, _ autumn. if indeed that ends up being the result, i _ autumn. if indeed that ends up being the result, i think- autumn. if indeed that ends up being the result, i think in - being the result, i think in truth that's going to be the story of the night, it will underline the impression about the conservative party are still struggling to make much progress in restoring it to the actual fortunes, progress in restoring it to the actualfortunes, that progress in restoring it to the actual fortunes, that said, beyond that speculation i should be reporting there is one fact, the turnout in kingswood, that turnout is down by around 311—35 points on the last general election, that makes it the fourth biggest fall in turnout in this parliament. and it is a parliament. and it is a parliament by the way we are on average the follow—on turnout since the last general election has been previously matched only by the being registered in by—elections between 1997—2001 and the 2001 general election ended up being the general election with the lowest turnout in modern british history, that 60%. so i think it really does indicate,

by—elections so far that the parties, whoever wins and loses tonight, the parties in general have a collective problem which how are they going to persuade voters to get to the polls, because at the moment at least, we're getting signals that there isn't that much enthusiasm perhaps from any of the offerings that are available to the electorate, at least so far, making it worth their while to turn out in a by—election. their while to turn out in a by-election._ by-election. that's really interesting, _ by-election. that's really interesting, i _ by-election. that's really interesting, i was - by-election. that's really interesting, i was in - interesting, i was in wellingborough earlier in the week talking to the voters there, and they were basically saying they don't believe the politicians are going to deliver on what they are saying, so why should they bother and actually go out and help? bother and actually go out and hel ? �* , . ., , bother and actually go out and help? it's certainly true that the message _ help? it's certainly true that the message from _ help? it's certainly true that the message from the - help? it's certainly true that l the message from the opinion polls, number one, there is deep discontent with the current conservative governments, that's clearly manifested in the defeats we've seen them suffer in the last two years, and the fact they

are so far behind in the opinion polls. they were so far ahead there doesn't seem to be ahead there doesn't seem to be a great deal of enthusiasm, is just quote you a couple of examples. the level of satisfaction for sir keir starmer as the labour party, he is in very clear negative in contrast, tony blair, when he was heading towards success in the 1997 general election was very clearly in positive territory, even david camera before his election had slightly more people who were satisfied with him and dissatisfied, so keir starmer is far behind these two who won their subsequent general election. more people still say that labour are not going to say that they are, that stands in stark contrast to the position the labour party were in before 1997. so we've got an unpopular government, but it's

not clear that we've got that much enthusiasm for the opposition that at the moment at least seems to be on course to be winning the next general election. �* ,., election. and if we, so if the tories do — election. and if we, so if the tories do lose _ election. and if we, so if the tories do lose both - election. and if we, so if the tories do lose both of - election. and if we, so if the tories do lose both of these | tories do lose both of these by—elections, we are talking about going back to the early 19905, about going back to the early 1990s, since that's happened for a government.— for a government. yes, well, they have _ for a government. yes, well, they have lost _ for a government. yes, well, they have lost both _ for a government. yes, well, they have lost both of- for a government. yes, well, they have lost both of them, | they have lost both of them, but the conservatives will have lost nine by—elections, but we should remember to give them all due credit that they didn't gain a seat from labour back in 2021, that was hardly full. so they would have suffered a net loss of eight by—elections. the last time a government lost eight by—elections was in the 1992-1997 eight by—elections was in the 1992—1997 parliament which ended unhappily for the conservatives. if you want to look at the fact that they've lost nine by—elections, the last time a government lost as

many as that you'll have to go back to the government of howard wilson between 1956—1970 which actually lost 13 by—elections, that's still the record. of course howard wilson lost as well. however you look at it, although the conservatives are trying to claim tonight governments often lose by—elections, yes, but not often as the conservatives lose by—elections normally, and not the president's hand site for governments have been losing by—elections on the scale this government has been doing. {eek government has been doing. 0k john, a government has been doing. 0k john, a bit of breaking news we've got, the willingboro turnout has gotten in and he's 13 point one... 38.1%.- turnout has gotten in and he's 13 point one... 38.1%. what you make of that? _ 13 point one... 38.1%. what you make of that? this _ 13 point one... 38.1%. what you make of that? this was - 13 point one... 38.1%. what you make of that? this was a - make of that? this was a constituency that used to have a quite high turnout, there was a quite high turnout, there was a by—election there that the turnout was 60% or so, it's going to be part again of a

broader story that yes, a night perhaps of successful labour on the back of low turnouts. i think we can anticipate that as was true back in the autumn that they were conservatives were losing by—elections the conservatives want to say that this is yes, conservative voters have stayed at home rather than necessarily turned out and voted for the opposition. the trouble with that argument is that while that argument is that while that might be true, that doesn't necessarily, in a sense is an analysis of the condition they find themselves in. it's not necessarily a prescription that means they are guaranteed to recover between now and the general election. find to recover between now and the general election.— general election. and 'ust one other point* general election. and 'ust one other point before h general election. and 'ust one other point before we_ general election. and just one other point before we finish i other point before we finish this sirjohn. i want to ask you about reform uk. they were campaigning very heavily and willingboro.— campaigning very heavily and willinuboro. , willingboro. they were indeed. they themselves _ willingboro. they were indeed. they themselves say _ willingboro. they were indeed. they themselves say they - willingboro. they were indeed. they themselves say they hope to get about 10% of the vote and they may well be as the

rumour of mill suggests, labour may have won it by a record amount in the constituency but part of the explanation will be the success of reform. i would simply make the point that given this is such a euro sceptic situation, 10% across the opinion polls across the uk in general, that you might expect them to do rather more than 10% in this by—election if they are expected to match the position in the opinion polls. but either way, part of the story may be that the reasons why the conservatives lost the sea is because of the loss of voters to reform. that is not going to make rishi sunak�*s life any more comfortable with the right of his party who will be 18 or even more than they are already to see some asylum—seekers put on a plane to rwanda sooner rather than later, because they at least believe that that is going to believe that that is going to be essential to any prospect of conservative recovery. sir be essential to any prospect of conservative recovery.- conservative recovery. sirjohn curtis for— conservative recovery. sirjohn curtis for the _ conservative recovery. sirjohn curtis for the moment, - conservative recovery. sirjohn curtis for the moment, thank l curtis for the moment, thank you very much, and our election

hub. alsojohn will be back with us later as we keep you updated with the two by—elections that are being counted, we will of course expect those by—elections results to make headlines in the morning. and the economy features heavily on the majority of the front pages. �*uk slips into recession' reads the eye. the latest figures estimate that gross domestic product — that's a key measure of economic activity — fell twice in a row between july and december. it's the third time that the uk has fallen into recession in the past 25 years. the financial times headline reads "britain's slide into recession creates another big election hurdle for the prime minister" as we await those results in kingswood and wellingborough. the guardian warns rishi sunak against tax cuts , claiming the country has endured the longest sustained fall in living standards in 70 years.

the daily telegraph speculcates the chancellor will shelve plans for a 2p cut to income tax. it agrees that an economy in recession leaves mr hunt with less money to spend than expected. but the daily mail calls on the chancellor to be bold and to press forward with big tax cuts. staying with the economy, the times reports about the fears businesses have over labour's plans to end zero—hours contracts which could impose a significant burden on firms when the economy is stuttering. finally — in typical fashion — the daily star has an unusual splash. ozzy, the jack russell calls his owner by her name and tells her: i love you. �*amazing talking dog of barnsley�* is its headline.

now, let's go back to the by—election results. let's show you some live pictures of the count. this is thornbury. this is where the election results is where the election results is coming in full, the kingswood by—election. we've had the turnout in kingswood, thatis had the turnout in kingswood, that is 37%, that means just shy of 25,000 votes have been cast in kingswood. we should, of as we've been saying, by—elections always tend to see lower numbers of people voting, but we have to say that is still way down on the around 50,000 people who voted there and the 2019 general election where there was a turnout of over 70%, so there we are, the kingswood votes being counted there at that centre and thornbury with a turnout that we have had of 37%. now we can

also show you the pictures in kettering. now, kettering is where all the votes in the willingboro by—election are being counted, and in the last half hour we've had the turnout there. it is relatively low at 38.1%, so as we've said in general elections you often get a turnout of over 70% in these seats, but we have had a turnout of 38% they in willingboro of course the willingboro of course the willingboro election was called after peter bone's dissension from the house of commons. helen harrison is the conservative candidate of their in wellingborough. so the turnout in wellingborough 38.1%, and in kingswood was

37%. we will be back later with another update on the by—election, but don't forget, you can keep up—to—date right now because the bbc news website and app has a live page “p website and app has a live page up and running and we have all of our correspondence and both counts putting input into that life page which you can find or on the bbc news app, as i say, i'll be back later. welcome to newsday, reporting live from singapore. i'm arunoday mukharji. let's get you the headlines. donald trump will face his first criminal trial next month after a judge in new york denies his bid to have the case dismissed. dwindling ammunition and a growing casualty list. the bbc visits the ukraine front line — where soldiers are urging the us to provide fresh military assistance. the israeli army raids southern gaza's main hospital — it says it has credible evidence hostages have been held there

and...is melbourne "ready for it"? taylor swift kicks off the seven—show australian leg of her eras tour on friday. welcome to bbc news — broadcasting to viewers in the uk and around the world. we begin in the us, where donald trump will become the first former president to go on criminal trial after a new yorkjudge set a court date for the end of next month. he is accused of falsifying business records in connection with payments made to an adult film star, stormy daniels. from new york our north america editor sarah smith reports. this is now a familiar scene. donald trump's motorcade arriving at a courthouse. today, as he tried and failed to get this case dismissed

or delayed, he argued these prosecutions interfere