wasn't until damien egan wasn't until recently the mayor of lewisham, he was born in this constituency, labour have made a big point of saying that. he's just about to come through the door with chris, who we been speaking with. thinking his labour supporters there. 50 thinking his labour supporters there. ., thinking his labour supporters there, ., ., thinking his labour supporters there. ., ., ., ., there. so from that round of applause. — there. so from that round of applause. they _ there. so from that round of applause, they think - there. so from that round of applause, they think they i applause, they think they probably wanted from that, hannah? is probably wanted from that, hannah? , .,, probably wanted from that, hannah? , ., , ,, hannah? is there anything you want to say? _ hannah? is there anything you want to say? waiting - hannah? is there anything you want to say? waiting for - want to say? waiting for results. _ want to say? waiting for results, so _ want to say? waiting for results, so waiting - want to say? waiting for results, so waiting to i want to say? waiting for l results, so waiting to see, want to say? waiting for - results, so waiting to see, but feeling — results, so waiting to see, but feeling really happy and very excited — feeling really happy and very excited about what's next, so let's — excited about what's next, so let's see _ excited about what's next, so let's see-— let's see. we will let you go and speak _ let's see. we will let you go and speak to _ let's see. we will let you go and speak to you _ let's see. we will let you go and speak to you later. - let's see. we will let you go and speak to you later. so l let's see. we will let you go i and speak to you later. so that is the labour _ and speak to you later. so that is the labour party _ and speak to you later. so that is the labour party candidate l is the labour party candidate in thornberry arriving at the count there. your best guess

now, 10—15 minutes away, do you reckon? i now, 10-15 minutes away, do you reckon? ., , , , reckon? i would say, yes, stick with us for— reckon? i would say, yes, stick with us for ten _ reckon? i would say, yes, stick with us for ten minutes - reckon? i would say, yes, stick with us for ten minutes and i with us for ten minutes and will hopefully be able to say something more concrete than we have been doing. i would say parties don't tend to talk in the way they've just been talking unless they are pretty confident that they know will happen. confident that they know will ha - en. ~ . ., confident that they know will ha--en.~ ., happen. we will come back to ou happen. we will come back to you when _ happen. we will come back to you when we _ happen. we will come back to you when we think _ happen. we will come back to you when we think that i happen. we will come back to you when we think that result | you when we think that result will happen in thornberry. let's bring in our polling guru, sirjohn curtis. he is in the newsroom — it seems that labour or confident at least on they are in the south gloucestershire? i they are in the south gloucestershire? ~ u, gloucestershire? i think we can be re gloucestershire? i think we can be pretty clear _ gloucestershire? i think we can be pretty clear that _ gloucestershire? i think we can be pretty clear that the - gloucestershire? i think we can be pretty clear that the labourl be pretty clear that the labour party have managed to win this seat. what will be interesting to see is how well they won. but just to underline to see is how well they won. butjust to underline the significance of this — if the next general election were to be fought on the current boundaries and kingswood won't exist without a general election is actually fought — if that were the case, then

kingswood is one of those seats where the swing required 11% is only a little less from the swing it labour would require to get an overall majority at a general election under the old boundaries, it would've been about i2%. so in other words, winning kingswood is consistent with the claim that the labour party are at the moment at least on course to win an overall majority at the next general election. now if we discover they've won it comfortably, then that will lead to speculation that labour have also managed to pick up the wellingborough constituency where the swing required is much greater, to the order of 18%. much greater, to the order of 1896. ~ �* , much greater, to the order of 1896. . �* , ., ~ much greater, to the order of 1896. ~ �* , ., ~ ., 1896. we've been talking about that statement _ 1896. we've been talking about that statement right _ 1896. we've been talking about that statement right after i 1896. we've been talking about that statement right after the | that statement right after the polls closed from the conservative party, saying that conservative party, saying that conservative governments don't necessarily win by—elections. they don't necessarily, and

occasionally they lose by—elections in seats they are trying to defend. the problem the conservative party has is they are losing on a scale which is not quite unprecedented, but the precedents do not make happy reading. if the conservatives have lost kingswood and wellingborough, as is the chatter on twitter at... 5ir chatter on twitter at... sir john, chatter on twitter at... sir john. let's _ chatter on twitter at... sir john. let's go _ chatter on twitter at... sir john, let's go back to thornberry.— john, let's go back to thornberry. john, let's go back to thornber . , ., . ., thornberry. give notice at the votes recorded _ thornberry. give notice at the votes recorded for _ thornberry. give notice at the votes recorded for each i votes recorded for each candidate is as followed. san bromley, conservative, 8675. andrew charles brown, liberal democrats, 861. damienjames democrats, 861. damien james egan, democrats, 861. damienjames egan, commonly known as damien egan, commonly known as damien egan, labour party, 11,176.

cheering that was 11,176. lorraine antoinette francis, green party, 1160. antoinette francis, green party. 1450-— party, 1450. applause ru ert party, 1450. applause rupert james - party, 1450. applause rupert james gray i party, 1450. applause rupert james gray and | party, 1450. applause i rupert james gray and lo, rupertjames gray and lo, reform uk, 2578. rupert james gray and lo, reform uk, 2578. applause nicholas david _ reform uk, 2578. applause nicholas david wood, - reform uk, 2578. applause nicholas david wood, ukip, l nicholas david wood, ukip, people not politics, 129. the number of — people not politics, 129. the number of ballot _ people not politics, 129. tue: number of ballot papers rejected was follows. want of an official mark, zero. voting

for more than one candidate, 13. writing by which the voter could be identified, one. unmarked or void from certainty, 22. giving a total of 36 rejected ballot papers. the turnout figure across the constituency was 37 .11%. and i do hereby declare that damien eganis do hereby declare that damien egan is duly elected, thank you. egan is duly elected, thank ou. , well thank you all very much. thank— well thank you all very much. thank you _ well thank you all very much. thank you to the returning offiter— thank you to the returning officer and the teams of people here _ officer and the teams of people here and — officer and the teams of people here and across the constituency who have been counting _ constituency who have been counting the ballots, making

sure — counting the ballots, making sure that all the election today— sure that all the election today ran fairly and smoothly, so thank— today ran fairly and smoothly, so thank you to everybody. some personal— so thank you to everybody. some personal thank youse, so thank you to everybody. some personalthank youse, i'd so thank you to everybody. some personal thank youse, i'd like to say— personal thank youse, i'd like to say thank you to my husband, thank— to say thank you to my husband, thank you — to say thank you to my husband, thank you to my mum, my sisters, _ thank you to my mum, my sisters, my family have been there — sisters, my family have been there every step of the campaign. i'd like to say thank you to — campaign. i'd like to say thank you to nry— campaign. i'd like to say thank you to my agent, haley, to chris, — you to my agent, haley, to chris, siobhan, allthe chris, siobhan, all the fabulous chris, siobhan, allthe fabulous labour team that we've had of _ fabulous labour team that we've had of activists and volunteers who have _ had of activists and volunteers who have pounded the streets in all weathers over the last week, _ all weathers over the last week, so thank you. most of all though. — week, so thank you. most of all though. to _ week, so thank you. most of all though, i'd like to say thank you — though, i'd like to say thank you to — though, i'd like to say thank you to the residents and people of kingswood. your honesty, your— of kingswood. your honesty, your frankness has helped keep my campaign rooted in the issues _ my campaign rooted in the issues that are really impacting our community — the

cost _ impacting our community — the cost crisis. _ impacting our community — the cost crisis, safety on our streets. _ cost crisis, safety on our streets, in the nhs. thank you for giving — streets, in the nhs. thank you for giving me your trust and for giving me your trust and for allowing me to serve the community that i'm from. it's a trust _ community that i'm from. it's a trust that— community that i'm from. it's a trust that i_ community that i'm from. it's a trust that i promise to repay, to show— trust that i promise to repay, to show you that politics can be different and it can make a difference. in kingswood, as across— difference. in kingswood, as across the country, 14 years of conservative government have sucked — conservative government have sucked the hope out of our country _ sucked the hope out of our country. there's a feeling that no matter— country. there's a feeling that no matter how hard you work, you just — no matter how hard you work, you just can't move forward, and — you just can't move forward, and that— you just can't move forward, and that with rishi sunak's recession, we are left again paying _ recession, we are left again paying more and getting less. it doesn't have to be this way. you _ it doesn't have to be this way. you know _ it doesn't have to be this way. you know it, i know it, we all know — you know it, i know it, we all know it _ you know it, i know it, we all know it. and when the prime minister— know it. and when the prime minister finally finds the courage to give the people a say, — courage to give the people a say we _

courage to give the people a say, we are going to need each and every— say, we are going to need each and every one of you again to come — and every one of you again to come out _ and every one of you again to come out and vote and make sure your— come out and vote and make sure your voices — come out and vote and make sure your voices are heard. come out and vote and make sure yourvoices are heard. our country— yourvoices are heard. our country is _ yourvoices are heard. our country is at a crossroads. under— country is at a crossroads. under the _ country is at a crossroads. under the conservatives, we can choose _ under the conservatives, we can choose more managed to decline, more _ choose more managed to decline, more division. 0r choose more managed to decline, more division. or we can choose a change — more division. or we can choose a change labour party, a government that will put people first, _ government that will put people first, that insures a child's background is in a barrier to their— background is in a barrier to their future, background is in a barrier to theirfuture, and background is in a barrier to their future, and that we will rebuild — their future, and that we will rebuild great britain. the work to give — rebuild great britain. the work to give kingswood its future hack— to give kingswood its future back starts now. thank you again — back starts now. thank you again to _ back starts now. thank you again to everybody for all your support — again to everybody for all your su ort. , support. cheering there we _ support. cheering there we go, i support. cheering there we go, that l support. cheeringl there we go, that is support. cheering - there we go, that is damien egan, the new labour mp for kingswood — the result they are

being declared in thornberry. he has overturned a majority of more than 11,000 to win that seat from the conservative party, so you can see all the press now trying to get pictures of that new labour mp damien egan. in his speech, he thanked his husband and the volunteers, and the residents and people of kingswood. he said, "thank you for giving me your trust, trust that i promise to repay." he said he wanted to show that politics can make a difference and that the 111 can make a difference and that the 14 years of tory government had sucked hope out of the country. so there you can see big smiles on the face of damien egan, the new labour mp for kingswood. let's bring back end sirjohn curtis with more of the details there. so my maths say it's 2501 majority

there, overturning the 11,220? there, overturning the 11,220 ? 2501 there, overturning the 11,220? 2501 majority, and you should note that the reform candidate got 2578, 10.4% of the vote. in other words, the reform uk vote is slightly greater than the majority, and i suspect that will add to the concerns of those on the right of the conservative party that the conservative party that the conservative party that the conservative party is now at serious risk of losing ground to the reform uk. the swing to labour at 16.4% is less than we saw and selby and amid bedfordshire. it will not be sufficient for labour to pick up sufficient for labour to pick up wellingborough, and it is a swing of up by a number of points, very credible but much less in that 21 point drop in the conservative vote. so to that extent at least, this by—election is a rejection of the conservatives by the

electorate, eight clear and sharper message than the enthusiasm for labour. it labour will be happy, this is more than enough of a swing and if it were to be reflected in a general election, for labour to get the overall majority. but it reflects the difficulties the conservative party finds themselves, with reform uk for themselves, with reform uk for the first time putting in the performance and a by—election we would expect them to get given their performance in the national opinion polls.- national opinion polls. let's reca - national opinion polls. let's recap on — national opinion polls. let's recap on the _ national opinion polls. let's recap on the result, - national opinion polls. let's recap on the result, we i national opinion polls. let's recap on the result, we can | recap on the result, we can show you the result now. as you can see there, damien egan at the top with 11,176. we can now show you the share

of the vote, which again was what sirjohn was mentioning. and here is that share of votes. the interesting one is the share change, so we can show you that. there you can see how labour have gone up by 11 11.5%, but 23 pointjust 21.3% down for the conservative party. and reform up 10.4%, and we can also show you what that means swing wise, who doesn't like a swing this time of the morning? that's the swing for a conservative to labour of 16.4%. sirjohn, i'm really interested in what you are saying they're about reform because we were hearing richard tice a little earlier on saying that he believes they were

pulling at national levels and would become the third largest party ahead of the liberal democrats — and certainly from that by—election result, that does seem like it might be possible. does seem like it might be possible-— does seem like it might be ossible. v . . , . , possible. it's certainly a very oor possible. it's certainly a very poor result _ possible. it's certainly a very poor result for _ possible. it's certainly a very poor result for the _ possible. it's certainly a very poor result for the liberal i poor result for the liberal democrats, they lost the number of the vote they had in 2019, and they are behind only reform but also the green party, who have managed to save their deposit and increase their share of the vote. it may be that the liberal democrat vote was squeezed tactically, such as was left of it by the labour candidate. but i think the crucial point that comes out of reform, two things — one is we are now seeing reform putting in the kind of performance we might expect in a by—election, given the national poll standing. this is a constituency around 50% of people voted leave, so it's more or less what you might

expect reform to get given their current national polls, but it's the fact that the reform tally is somewhat bigger than the labour majority that will add spice to this reform performance. now i should say straightaway, we shouldn't assume that everybody who voted reform would otherwise have voted conservative if the reform candidate wasn't on the ballot. but the vote will almost have come no doubt this or personally from the conservative party. we know from the national opinion polls that reform picking up as many votes from the conservatives of labour are, votes from the conservatives of labourare, again, votes from the conservatives of labour are, again, that's reflected in this result. so given that is the case, you can see why conservative mps feeling concerned about immigration and feeling that the problems of brexit have not been solved will be pressurising supporters of rishi sunak to move in their direction, because they believe that focusing on those issues

is going to be essential to stem what now is a risk at least of being a serious loss of support by the conservatives to reform. d0 of support by the conservatives to reform-— to reform. do you think the conservatives _ to reform. do you think the conservatives is _ to reform. do you think the conservatives is mentioned | to reform. do you think the i conservatives is mentioned in their statement have factored in the fact that they could well lose both these by—elections and have already lost the one in south gloucestershire? , gloucestershire? the truth is at the beginning _ gloucestershire? the truth is at the beginning of— gloucestershire? the truth is at the beginning of the i gloucestershire? the truth is| at the beginning of the night, rather remarkably, the conservatives more or less said they were going to lose the two, which is not normally what you would expect to see, are one of the things noted about both these by—elections is at the conservative party didn't seem to put in a great deal of campaign effort. rishi sunak didn't appear, there wasn't pressure on tory mps to turn up and make sure they did their bit for the candidates. it's almost as though the conservative party reckon that perhaps might not trying too hard they would help to deflect journalist interest away from the by—elections and thereby perhaps try to bury the bad

news, but i think the truth is that they are still