put their trust in a ready to put their trust in a labour government. now, we are still waiting for the wellingborough result. this is the scene live in kettering, where that result will be declared. final counting going on there. hopefully we will have that result in the next hour. but this is the moment that the kingswood result was announced. damien egan, labour party, 11,176... cheering that was 11,176... and i do hereby declare that damien egan is duly elected. thank you. well, in his acceptance speech, labour�*s newest mp said the

country needed a change. in kingswood, as across the country. _ kingswood, as across the country, 14 years of conservative government have sucked — conservative government have sucked the hope out of our countrx _ sucked the hope out of our country. there is a feeling that, _ country. there is a feeling that, no_ country. there is a feeling that, no matter how hard you work. — that, no matter how hard you work. you _ that, no matter how hard you work, you just can't move forward _ work, you just can't move forward. and that with rishi 's recession. _ forward. and that with rishi 's recession, we are left again paying _ recession, we are left again paying more and getting less. it doesn't have to be this way. you _ it doesn't have to be this way. you know _ it doesn't have to be this way. you know it, i know it, know it. you know it, i know it, know it and — you know it, i know it, know it. and when the prime minister finally— it. and when the prime minister finally finds the courage to give — finally finds the courage to give the people a say, we're going — give the people a say, we're going to _ give the people a say, we're going to need each and every one of— going to need each and every one of you again to come out and _ one of you again to come out and vote _ one of you again to come out and vote and to make sure your voices— and vote and to make sure your voices are — and vote and to make sure your voices are heard. our country is at — voices are heard. our country is at a — voices are heard. our country is at a crossroads. under the conservatives, we can choose more — conservatives, we can choose more managed decline, more

chaos, — more managed decline, more chaos, more division. orwe more managed decline, more chaos, more division. or we can choose — chaos, more division. or we can choose a — chaos, more division. or we can choose a changed labour party, a government that will put people _ a government that will put people first, that ensures a child's— people first, that ensures a child's background isn't a barrier— child's background isn't a barrier to their future, and that— barrier to their future, and that witi— barrier to their future, and that will rebuild great britain. the work to give kingswood its future back starts _ kingswood its future back starts now.— kingswood its future back starts now. . ., , starts now. new land that is damien egan. _ starts now. new land that is damien egan, the _ starts now. new land that is damien egan, the winning l starts now. new land that is - damien egan, the winning labour candidate. so, to recap the result, he won the seat for labour with 11,176 votes. the conservative sam bromiley came second with 8675, and rupert lowe of reform got 2578 while the green candidate, lorraine francis, 1450. let me show you what that means in terms of the share of the vote, and labour picking up 44.9% of the vote, the conservatives on 34.9.

there you can see reform on 10.4 and the greens on 5.8. let me show you now the change between the two elections. labour up by 11.5%, the tory vote down 21.3%, reform up 10.4% in the greens also up by 3.4%, and atfour 10.4% in the greens also up by 3.4%, and at four minutes past three, who doesn't like a little bit of a swingometer? here is the swing from conservative to labour, that being 16.4%. after his win, damien egan spiked our political correspondent, hannah miller. ., ., , miller. today we have been knocking — miller. today we have been knocking on _ miller. today we have been knocking on doors - miller. today we have been knocking on doors all- miller. today we have been knocking on doors all day, l knocking on doors all day, speaking to people, and you are never— speaking to people, and you are never quite sure how it is going _ never quite sure how it is going. but it has been a really positive — going. but it has been a really positive campaign. we have tried — positive campaign. we have tried to _ positive campaign. we have tried to run on issues that people _ tried to run on issues that people care about, try and listen _ people care about, try and listen to— people care about, try and listen to people, focus on trying _ listen to people, focus on trying to— listen to people, focus on trying to address all those things. _ trying to address all those things, and it is kind of lucky

because _ things, and it is kind of lucky because things are our residents were telling us a thing — residents were telling us a thing is _ residents were telling us a thing is that keir and the labour— thing is that keir and the labour party have been talking about, — labour party have been talking about, the nhs, the cost of living — about, the nhs, the cost of living crisis, community policing, so it seemed to chime with— policing, so it seemed to chime with the — policing, so it seemed to chime with the voters in kingswood. what — with the voters in kingswood. what does it mean to you to become an mp? , , become an mp? representing the area that you _ become an mp? representing the area that you are _ become an mp? representing the area that you are from, _ become an mp? representing the area that you are from, the - area that you are from, the area — area that you are from, the area that _ area that you are from, the area that you are from, the area that you grew up in, where your— area that you grew up in, where vourfamitv_ area that you grew up in, where yourfamily are, it area that you grew up in, where your family are, it really does. _ your family are, it really does. it— your family are, it really does, it is a cliche but it feels _ does, it is a cliche but it feels amazing, and you just hope — feels amazing, and you just hope you _ feels amazing, and you just hope you can do a good job. because _ hope you can do a good job. because there are so much to do. because there are so much to do there _ because there are so much to do. there are so much to fix as well, _ do. there are so much to fix as welt, and — do. there are so much to fix as well, and honestly as you are going — well, and honestly as you are going around speaking to people, people are sharing some really— people, people are sharing some really heartfelt stories, but also — really heartfelt stories, but also a _ really heartfelt stories, but also a lot of ambition for the area — also a lot of ambition for the area. kingswood is a beautiful part of— area. kingswood is a beautiful part of bristol, but it is one that— part of bristol, but it is one that feels neglected after 14 years — that feels neglected after 14 years of conservative government, we had a conservative council for eight years. — conservative council for eight years. so _ conservative council for eight years, so there is a lot to do and — years, so there is a lot to do and a— years, so there is a lot to do and a tot— years, so there is a lot to do and a lot to _ years, so there is a lot to do and a lot to get on with, and i hope — and a lot to get on with, and i hope i— and a lot to get on with, and i hope i can— and a lot to get on with, and i hope i can make a difference. i can hope i can make a difference. can tell hope i can make a difference. i can tell from listening to you that it can tell from listening to you thatitis can tell from listening to you that it is quite an emotional moment in some ways. it

that it is quite an emotional moment in some ways. it is, and it still hasn't — moment in some ways. it is, and it still hasn't completely - moment in some ways. it is, and it still hasn't completely sunk- it still hasn't completely sunk in, it still hasn't completely sunk in. and — it still hasn't completely sunk in, and obviously with working so hard. — in, and obviously with working so hard, campaigning every single — so hard, campaigning every single day, not knowing how it is going — single day, not knowing how it is going to go, knowing that you have _ is going to go, knowing that you have having lovely conversations with people, but you are — conversations with people, but you are never quite sure, are they— you are never quite sure, are they going _ you are never quite sure, are they going to come and vote on they going to come and vote on the day? — they going to come and vote on the day? and i'm really lucky because _ the day? and i'm really lucky because people have come and they have shown their support. what _ they have shown their support. what are — they have shown their support. what are your priorities now? i realise you found this out two minutes ago, but what will your priorities be as an mp?- priorities be as an mp? issues that people — priorities be as an mp? issues that people have _ priorities be as an mp? issues that people have been - priorities be as an mp? issues that people have been talking | that people have been talking about— that people have been talking about is— that people have been talking about is being that spokesperson in parliament for our part— spokesperson in parliament for our part of bristol. westminster needs to understand that you _ westminster needs to understand that you can't get a dentist. there — that you can't get a dentist. there is— that you can't get a dentist. there is no dentist accepting nhs — there is no dentist accepting nhs patients anywhere in bristol. it is really hard to get — bristol. it is really hard to get to _ bristol. it is really hard to get to a _ bristol. it is really hard to get to a doctor. people don't feel— get to a doctor. people don't feet safe _ get to a doctor. people don't feel safe on the streets. so nrany— feel safe on the streets. so many people, the cost of living crisis _ many people, the cost of living crisis is — many people, the cost of living crisis is notjust a slogan, it is really— crisis is notjust a slogan, it is really impacting people. you have _ is really impacting people. you have got— is really impacting people. you have got families who have been on holiday— have got families who have been on holiday for years. people are worried about what food they— are worried about what food they put _ are worried about what food they put in the trolley, about heating — they put in the trolley, about heating up their homes in winter. _ heating up their homes in winter, and it puts a lot of stress _ winter, and it puts a lot of stress on _ winter, and it puts a lot of stress on family life as well. on the — stress on family life as well. on the other thing is around

making _ on the other thing is around making an area nicer. i grew up in kingswood, i remember how it was _ in kingswood, i remember how it was it— in kingswood, i remember how it was it was, _ in kingswood, i remember how it was. it was, it is beautiful. it was. it was, it is beautiful. it has _ was. it was, it is beautiful. it has att— was. it was, it is beautiful. it has all the components there _ it has all the components there. but it definitely needs some — there. but it definitely needs some rejuvenation. it needs some — some rejuvenation. it needs some love. and i think all of us that— some love. and i think all of us that know and love kingswood have _ us that know and love kingswood have nruch— us that know and love kingswood have much more ambition than what _ have much more ambition than what we — have much more ambition than what we have got in that town centre — what we have got in that town centre now. what we have got in that town centre now— what we have got in that town centre now. and of course the constituency _ centre now. and of course the constituency boundary, - constituency boundary, kingswood as it is will not exist whenever the next general election comes. i realise again that you have literally been in this job for a kind that you have literally been in thisjob for a kind of that you have literally been in this job for a kind of two minutes, but do you see this as a longer term job that you hope to do be on the next general election as well if you can? and the parliamentary candidate for bristol north—east when the new boundary comes in, so the kingswood part of the constituency.- kingswood part of the constituency. kingswood part of the constituen , ., ., constituency. sorry for that bank, everyone. _ constituency. sorry for that bank, everyone. the - constituency. sorry for that - bank, everyone. the kingswood art of bank, everyone. the kingswood part of the _ bank, everyone. the kingswood part of the constituency - bank, everyone. the kingswood part of the constituency i - bank, everyone. the kingswood part of the constituency i will. part of the constituency i will be part of the constituency i will he the — part of the constituency i will be the candidate for, and it stretches from staple hill,

fishponds, all areas i know wett~ — fishponds, all areas i know well. ., ., well. how confident are you that labour _ well. how confident are you that labour will _ well. how confident are you that labour will win - well. how confident are you that labour will win a - well. how confident are you i that labour will win a general election? i that labour will win a general election? ~ that labour will win a general election? ,, , ., .., election? i think you can never take anything _ election? i think you can never take anything for— election? i think you can never take anything for granted, - election? i think you can never take anything for granted, and| take anything for granted, and we need — take anything for granted, and we need everyone, like today in kingswood, who went out to vote, — kingswood, who went out to vote, we _ kingswood, who went out to vote, we will need that support again— vote, we will need that support again later in the year. labour will he — again later in the year. labour will be setting out a full manifesto that gives lots of peopte _ manifesto that gives lots of people gives lots of things for peopte — people gives lots of things for people to go through and digest _ people to go through and divest. ., , people to go through and divest. . , ., ,., digest. that is the new labour mp for kingswood, _ digest. that is the new labour mp for kingswood, damien . digest. that is the new labour i mp for kingswood, damien egan, speaking to our correspondence after the result was declared. and we can go back to kettering. this is where the wellingborough result will be declared. and you can see on our live page that andrew sinclair, who is bbc look east's respondent, there is a feeling that they could be getting close to the result.

you can see the monster raving loony party candidate there. many of the tables of stopped county, and all the candidates gathering in their small groups with their supporters. also the high sheriff of northamptonshire is also arrived there, so we may well get a result in the next little while, fingers crossed. we will of course bring it live to you here on bbc news. returning to the kingswood result, the conservative mp sirjacob rees—mogg was at the count, and of course the conservatives losing that seat that they held at the general election to labour. our political correspondent hannah miller asked sirjacob for his reaction to the result. asked sirjacob for his reaction to the result. well, it is not reaction to the result. well, it is rrot as _ reaction to the result. well, it is not as bad _ reaction to the result. well, it is not as bad as _ reaction to the result. well, it is not as bad as i'd - it is not as bad as i'd expected. if you add together the conservative and the reform party _ the conservative and the reform party vote, it is more than the labour— party vote, it is more than the labour vote. party vote, it is more than the labourvote. labour party vote, it is more than the labour vote. labour didn't get over— labour vote. labour didn't get over 50%. _ labour vote. labour didn't get over 50%, and bear labour vote. labour didn't get over50%, and bear in mind labour vote. labour didn't get over 50%, and bear in mind this was— over 50%, and bear in mind this was the— over 50%, and bear in mind this was the seat labour held throughout its period of government from 1997 to 2010. if it is _ government from 1997 to 2010. if it is not — government from 1997 to 2010. if it is not winning and

winning _ if it is not winning and winning strongly here in a by—election, then its prospects for the — by—election, then its prospects for the general election aren't that good. for the general election aren't that good-— that good. this is clearly a aood that good. this is clearly a good result, _ that good. this is clearly a good result, though, - that good. this is clearly a good result, though, for. good result, though, for labour, and what you make of the reform vote? they have come in third ahead of the greens, head of the liberal democrats. what risk does that make for the conservative party? the fundamental _ the conservative party? the fundamental challenge for the conservative party is how do we persuade — conservative party is how do we persuade the voters who voted for us — persuade the voters who voted for us in — persuade the voters who voted for us in 2019 vote for it in 2024? _ for us in 2019 vote for it in 2024? that means we need to be offering _ 2024? that means we need to be offering policies that conservative was always stood for, conservative was always stood for. to — conservative was always stood for, to get the economy going, to get— for, to get the economy going, to get taxes down, to get the bank— to get taxes down, to get the bank of— to get taxes down, to get the bank of england to start cutting the interest rates. we have — cutting the interest rates. we have had _ cutting the interest rates. we have had terrible failures in monetary policy and we need to examine — monetary policy and we need to examine the green policies which — examine the green policies which are putting intolerable burdens _ which are putting intolerable burdens on businesses and indeed _ burdens on businesses and indeed an individuals. forgive me, i indeed an individuals. forgive me. i don't— indeed an individuals. forgive me, i don't have _ indeed an individuals. forgive me, i don't have the - indeed an individuals. forgive me, i don't have the numbers indeed an individuals. forgive i me, i don't have the numbers in front of me right now, but from memory i think i would be right in saying, and i'm sure i will be corrected if i'm not, i think it will be right in saying that if you added the

reform vote to the conservative party vote... it reform vote to the conservative party vote- - -_ party vote... it was about 70 above labour. _ party vote... it was about 70 above labour. is _ party vote... it was about 70 above labour. is to - party vote... it was about 70 above labour. is to have - party vote... it was about 70 - above labour. is to have reform cost the conservatives _ above labour. is to have reform cost the conservatives this - cost the conservatives this by—election? i cost the conservatives this toy-election?— cost the conservatives this by-election? i wouldn't put it that way because _ by-election? i wouldn't put it that way because of - by-election? i wouldn't put it that way because of party - that way because of party doesn't _ that way because of party doesn't have a divine right to voters. — doesn't have a divine right to voters, we have to win them to vote _ voters, we have to win them to vote for— voters, we have to win them to vote for us _ voters, we have to win them to vote for us. there is a lot of common— vote for us. there is a lot of common ground between the conservative party and the reform _ conservative party and the reform party, and we have to make — reform party, and we have to make sure _ reform party, and we have to make sure we appeal to those voters — make sure we appeal to those voters. , ., , voters. let me put a different wa . if voters. let me put a different way- if the — voters. let me put a different way. if the reform _ voters. let me put a different way. if the reform party - voters. let me put a differentl way. if the reform party didn't exist as a threat to the conservative party, with those voters have anywhere to go other work that the conservative party, and with the conservative party have won here? i the conservative party have won here? ~ ., the conservative party have won here? ,, ., ., ., here? i think a lot of conservative - here? i think a lot of conservative voters l here? i think a lot of- conservative voters stayed at home, — conservative voters stayed at home, and i think may be reform voters _ home, and i think may be reform voters might have stayed at home, _ voters might have stayed at home, but it is arrogant to say voters — home, but it is arrogant to say voters might have shifted over, but it _ voters might have shifted over, but it shows where we need to be focusing our appeal. what does all of — be focusing our appeal. what does all of this _ be focusing our appeal. what does all of this mean - be focusing our appeal. whatl does all of this mean tonight? we are looking at potential by—election defeat in wellingborough as well. what's it mean for rishi sunak�*s leadership and your confidence in him moving forward towards a general election.— general election. rishi sunak's leadership _ general election. rishi sunak's leadership are _ general election. rishi sunak's

leadership are solid _ general election. rishi sunak's leadership are solid in - general election. rishi sunak's leadership are solid in her - leadership are solid in her support, _ leadership are solid in her support, and by—elections don't change — support, and by—elections don't change that. since orpington in whatever— change that. since orpington in whatever it was, 1963, 1964, we have _ whatever it was, 1963, 1964, we have got— whatever it was, 1963, 1964, we have got used to by—election results — have got used to by—election results being erratic. that is just— results being erratic. that is just something that happens, and i— just something that happens, and i don't think we should be surprised _ and i don't think we should be surprised. and we should be to some _ surprised. and we should be to some extent reassured by the low some extent reassured by the tow tevet— some extent reassured by the low level of turnout. when tony blair _ low level of turnout. when tony blair was — low level of turnout. when tony blair was about to win in 1987, you had — blair was about to win in 1987, you had quite high turnout in by—elections because people were — by—elections because people were really enthusiastic, and they— were really enthusiastic, and they were switching from the conservative to labour. that doesn't _ conservative to labour. that doesn't seem to be happening. the conservativesjust doesn't seem to be happening. the conservatives just seem to be staying at home in by—elections, which is understandable when they know that rishi sunak will still be prime — that rishi sunak will still be prime minister on friday morning. prime minister on friday morning-— prime minister on friday morninu. i. ,, ., prime minister on friday morninu. ,, ., ., morning. so you think that in a reneral morning. so you think that in a general election _ morning. so you think that in a general election situation, - morning. so you think that in a general election situation, he i general election situation, he may be able to get people to turn out? the party might be able to get people to turn out? is it still winnable from your perspective, the general election? it perspective, the general election?— perspective, the general election? ,, ~ election? it is striking when ou election? it is striking when you knock — election? it is striking when you knock on _ election? it is striking when you knock on people's - election? it is striking when | you knock on people's doors election? it is striking when - you knock on people's doors and a by—election, and you say, can icount— a by—election, and you say, can i count on— a by—election, and you say, can i count on your support, the things— i count on your support, the things politicians say, and peopte _ things politicians say, and people say, i am not voting. but — people say, i am not voting. but if— people say, i am not voting. but if you _ people say, i am not voting. but if you then say, come a

general— but if you then say, come a general election when it is a choice — general election when it is a choice between sir keir starmer and rishi — choice between sir keir starmer and rishi sunak, they say, we don't — and rishi sunak, they say, we don't want _ and rishi sunak, they say, we don't want to keir starmer. so ithink— don't want to keir starmer. so i think a — don't want to keir starmer. so i think a general election focuses _ i think a general election focuses people's mind in a different way than a general election. that was a jacob rees-mogg- _ election. that was a jacob rees-mogg- l— election. that was a jacob rees-mogg. ijust - election. that was a jacob rees-mogg. i just want . election. that was a jacob| rees-mogg. i just want to election. that was a jacob - rees-mogg. i just want to show rees—mogg. i just want to show you again the live pictures from kettering, which is where the result will be announced for the wellingborough by—election, which is the other one that we are waiting for. there you can see the stage is set up in the kettering leisure centre ready for that declaration to be made, which hopefully will be in the next little while. let me bring in our polling guru, sirjohn curtice, who has been with us all night. sirjohn, i wanted to pick up on the point that jacob rees—mogg was making about reform. they have done the best so far in terms of a by—election this parliament in kingswood, haven't they? that is correct- _ kingswood, haven't they? that is correct. hitherto, _ kingswood, haven't they? trust is correct. hitherto, reform's performances in by—elections have appeared to be rather

anaemic. 0nly have appeared to be rather anaemic. only once or twice did they manage to save their deposit. now they are getting 10% for the vote for the first time, and putting on the kind of performance that suggests that what the opinion polls have been saying, which is support for reform has been going up, and it does indeed have a degree of truth to it. and that doesn't make life any easier for the conservatives. the other message from the opinion polls recently has been that the conservatives are losing as many votes now to reform as they are to labour, and if that were to happen in a general election with reform standing in conservative held seats in a way that they did not do back in 2019, then you can see why many a conservative mp will be unhappy, concerned, worried about what we have seen in kingswood, and perhaps are also going to see in wellingborough. also going to see in wellinaaborouh. . ., , wellingborough. and the tories now have lost _ wellingborough. and the tories now have lost is _ wellingborough. and the tories now have lost is it _ wellingborough. and the tories now have lost is it nine - now have lost is it nine by—elections this parliament? they have lost nine, although

we should remember they managed to win one, which was hartlepool, back in may 2021. it will be nine if they lose wellingborough. we shouldn't count our chickens. and if they do lose wellingborough as well, they will have lost nine, but they will have lost nine, but they would have gained one, net loss of eight. last time a government lost eight by—elections between 1992 and 1997, it did not end happily for the conservatives. at the beginning of tonight, the conservatives were saying all governments lose by—elections, voters will often protest against the record of the government, that is true. but they don't necessarily lose by—elections on quite the level and with quite the regularity that has been happening to the conservatives in this parliament.- conservatives in this parliament. ., parliament. so what do you think the — parliament. so what do you think the move _ parliament. so what do you think the move will - parliament. so what do you think the move will be - parliament. so what do you think the move will be in i think the move will be in downing street when they wake up downing street when they wake up in the morning?— up in the morning? well, assuming. _ up in the morning? well, assuming, and _ up in the morning? well, assuming, and this - up in the morning? well, assuming, and this is - up in the morning? well, assuming, and this is a i up in the morning? well, i assuming, and this is a big assumption, that they haven't managed to hang onto wellingborough, i think the truth is it will be one of a degree of pessimism. the degree

of concern about the reaction will be on the tory backbenches. undoubtedly there is also a determination to be resolute, and desperate to try and find a way of beginning to turn around the labour lead in a way that so far the party has not succeeded. the question is can they do so? we saw yesterday bad news about the economy. it has been flatlining throughout the whole of 2023. if you want to look to see what are the evaluations, but the perception is that voters have that are most clearly related to a reluctance to a vote for the conservative party, it is frankly the perception that the economy is doing badly. 2019 conservative voters who think the economy is doing badly, only around one in three of them back in the swing of last year were saying they were going to vote conservative again. the economy is a major issue for the conservatives, and unless they can turn it around and persuade voters that

things are getting better in a way that they have not managed to do so far, either in terms of perceptions let alone reality, it is going to be very difficult for the conservatives to get into an election winning position. 50 to get into an election winning osition. �* , to get into an election winning osition. �*, ., ., ~' to get into an election winning osition. �*, ., position. so let's look at labour now. _ position. so let's look at labour now. i _ position. so let's look at labour now. i want - position. so let's look at labour now. i want to i position. so let's look at i labour now. i want to show position. so let's look at - labour now. i want to show you sir keir starmer�*s quote. he has been talking on the win, he says this is a fantastic result in kingswood that shows people are ready to put their trust in are ready to put their trust in a labour government, and that also probably comes back to the economy again, and the fact that labour want to be shown and showing the public that they can manage the economy. you find two things when you look at the polling on attitudes towards who can best when the economy. all the opinion polls show labour to be ahead of the conservative, albeit to varying degrees. and not necessarily by a very substantial amount. what the polls often also find is a lot of people saying don't know or

none of the above. the extent of labours lead in the most part of opinion polls on the economy is perhaps rather less than you might expect given its lead in the opinion polls, and this does take us back to the kingswood result. the increase in labour�*s vote is only around half of the drop in the conservative vote. and i think one little bit of historyjust to bear in mind, yes, labour ten points ahead in this constituency, a perfectly creditable result. every good reason for labour to feel pleased. but when labour won this constituency from 1997 to 2005, and each occasion they won the seat by a bigger margin than the ten points they achieved tonight. true, the constituency has changed to some degree, but in terms of its political make up, the last redistribution of kingswood didn't make that much difference, it doesn't explain the gap. so yes, labour have

done well but they haven't necessarily put on the kind of performance that would enable them to say we are doing as well as labour did under sir tony blair in the late 19905. so what you think the labour strategists will now be looking at? , , ., at? the first thing is we have to wait and — at? the first thing is we have to wait and see _ at? the first thing is we have to wait and see what - at? the first thing is we have | to wait and see what happens at? the first thing is we have i to wait and see what happens in wellingborough. in a sense, the apparent rise of reform is a two edged sword for labour. 0n the one hand, if it continues, it is going to make the conservative job of trying to defend seats including defending what at the moment you would regard as a very safe conservative seats, it is going to make it more difficult, and to make it more difficult, and to that extent at least it is good news for labour. 0n the other hand, labour must be asking themselves why is it that in the face of what seems to be still a deeply unpopular government it is only picking up government it is only picking up half the vote that the conservatives are losing. what

does that mean about the extent to which the voters are invested in us as a party they want to see in government after the next general election? there are other levels of satisfaction with sir keir starmer, the perception of whether or not labour is ready for government, where the numbers are certainly not as good as sir tony blair enjoyed before 1997. and i think in a sense of challenge that labour above all have, it is not so much can they win the election. the answer to that is probably, although not definitely. but if indeed it is true that the electorate are not that enthusiastic about labour, and given the very difficult task the next government will face, just bear in mind there is a very little fiscal headroom. the economy is not doing very well. taxation is at record high. public services are not thought to be working particularly the health service. turning that around

will be difficult. it may well mean breaking election promises, like perhaps having to raise taxes, and if labour don't enter into government with the enthusiasm of the electorate, i think the question that is now raising itself is, will labour find themselves in as much trouble as the current government after about 18 months if indeed the inheritance they get is so difficult and they find it as difficult and they find it as difficult as the current government to turn things around. ., , government to turn things around. . , , ,, around. really interesting, sir john. we are _ around. really interesting, sir john. we are seeing _ around. really interesting, sir john. we are seeing pictures i around. really interesting, sir| john. we are seeing pictures of the vote in wellingborough being counted, and hopefully that will come shortly. you mentioned earlier, in kingswood, the greens had their vote go up. i kingswood, the greens had their vote go up— vote go up. i think we should bear in mind _ vote go up. i think we should bear in mind as _ vote go up. i think we should bear in mind as we _ vote go up. i think we should bear in mind as we talk - vote go up. i think we should | bear in mind as we talk about labour's success and how reform are doing well, the opinion polls have also been saying that the greens are at around 6% or so, and they have been saying that for the last two or

three years. and now we have seen the greens managed to increase their vote despite labour's advance by about three points, they have save their deposit and actually it is the fifth best result that the greens have ever achieved in a by—election, and one of the other ones was somerton and frome last year. so reason for mild encouragement for the greens, that at least in places where they have strength in local government and more broadly in bristol, that is one of the places where they are hoping to do well in a general election, there isjust a degree of mild encouragement here. but indeed of course against a backdrop in which concern about climate change is as high as it has been. we have seen some of the consequences of climate change through wildfires, floods, high heat. some of it inside the uk, not le sommer but the summer before, and floods of course not so long ago. and the greens are operating in an environment

where perhaps their message is gaining some traction. they may in the end of course find that they struggle to hang onto the seat that they are currently holding in brighton where the incumbent is standing down, and maybe they won't succeed in winning elsewhere, so they might end up with no seats. so we shouldn't ignore the fact that they are managing to pick up that they are managing to pick up votes. that they are managing to pick u- votes. , ~ that they are managing to pick u- votes. , . .., up votes. interesting. we can show the — up votes. interesting. we can show the live _ up votes. interesting. we can show the live scene _ up votes. interesting. we can show the live scene in - show the live scene in wellingborough again, where we are expecting that result in hopefully the next half an hour. there you can see people milling around. we do believe that the counting really has finished, and now the candidates are milling around in their groups. there you can see the stage. it is in kettering where the result will actually be announced. there are 11 candidates who are standing in the wellingborough by—election, and we were talking with sirjohn about reform, and they have stood in

both by—elections, and i was in wellingborough earlier in the week, and i know that reform were campaigning very hard in the town centre a little earlier, and our correspondent harry farley spoke to reform leader richard tice. here is what he had to say. irate leader richard tice. here is what he had to say.- what he had to say. we are delighted. _ what he had to say. we are delighted, and _ what he had to say. we are delighted, and early - delighted, and early indications - delighted, and early indications are - delighted, and early indications are that i delighted, and early. indications are that in wellingborough- indications are that in wellingborough and l indications are that in - wellingborough and kingswood indications are that in _ wellingborough and kingswood we will get _ wellingborough and kingswood we will get our— wellingborough and kingswood we will get our best _ wellingborough and kingswood we will get our best by—election - will get our best by—election results. _ will get our best by—election results. a _ will get our best by—election results, a huge _ will get our best by—election results, a huge amount- will get our best by—election results, a huge amount of. will get our best by—election i results, a huge amount of work going _ results, a huge amount of work going along, _ results, a huge amount of work going along, counting - results, a huge amount of work going along, counting behind . results, a huge amount of work| going along, counting behind us and that— going along, counting behind us and that is— going along, counting behind us and that is an _ going along, counting behind us and that is an early— and that is an early indication, - and that is an early indication, we - and that is an early| indication, we think and that is an early- indication, we think will be and that is an early— indication, we think will be at or around _ indication, we think will be at oraround our— indication, we think will be at or around our national- indication, we think will be atj or around our national polling levels. — or around our national polling levels. plus— or around our national polling levels, plus or— or around our national polling levels, plus or minus, - or around our national polling levels, plus or minus, and . or around our national polling j levels, plus or minus, and we have — levels, plus or minus, and we have made _ levels, plus or minus, and we have made great— levels, plus or minus, and we have made great progress. i levels, plus or minus, and we i have made great progress. what we're _ have made great progress. what we're doing _ have made great progress. what we're doing now— have made great progress. what we're doing now is _ have made great progress. what we're doing now is solidifying i we're doing now is solidifying ourselves— we're doing now is solidifying ourselves as _ we're doing now is solidifying ourselves as the _ we're doing now is solidifying ourselves as the third - we're doing now is solidifying ourselves as the third largest political— ourselves as the third largest political party, _ ourselves as the third largest political party, way _ ourselves as the third largest political party, way ahead i ourselves as the third largest political party, way ahead ofl political party, way ahead of the lib— political party, way ahead of the lib dems _ political party, way ahead of the lib dems who _ political party, way ahead of the lib dems who seem i political party, way ahead of the lib dems who seem to. political party, way ahead of. the lib dems who seem to be disappearing _ the lib dems who seem to be disappearing away, _ the lib dems who seem to be disappearing away, and - the lib dems who seem to be disappearing away, and we i the lib dems who seem to bel disappearing away, and we are making — disappearing away, and we are making realty— disappearing away, and we are making really good _ disappearing away, and we are making really good progress. i disappearing away, and we are | making really good progress. it is clear— making really good progress. it is clear that _ making really good progress. it is clear that the _ making really good progress. it is clear that the voters - making really good progress. it is clear that the voters have i is clear that the voters have rejected _ is clear that the voters have rejected the _ is clear that the voters have rejected the incumbent i rejected the incumbent conservative _ rejected the incumbent conservative party i rejected the incumbent. conservative party here, because _ conservative party here, because frankly - conservative party here, because frankly they i conservative party here, i because frankly they have broken _ because frankly they have broken britain. _ because frankly they have broken britain. we - because frankly they have broken britain. we have i because frankly they have i broken britain. we have heard the news _ broken britain. we have heard the news this _ broken britain. we have heard the news this morning - broken britain. we have heard the news this morning that i broken britain. we have heard the news this morning that we are in— the news this morning that we

are in britain. _ the news this morning that we are in britain. you _ the news this morning that we are in britain. you cannot- the news this morning that wel are in britain. you cannot grow an economy— are in britain. you cannot grow an economy with _ are in britain. you cannot grow an economy with the _ are in britain. you cannot grow an economy with the burdens i are in britain. you cannot growl an economy with the burdens of record _ an economy with the burdens of record high— an economy with the burdens of record high taxes, _ an economy with the burdens of record high taxes, record - an economy with the burdens of record high taxes, record high i record high taxes, record high government— record high taxes, record high government spending, - record high taxes, record high government spending, nannyl government spending, nanny state — government spending, nanny state regulations— government spending, nanny state regulations because i government spending, nannyi state regulations because they haven't — state regulations because they haven't taken— state regulations because they haven't taken advantage - state regulations because they haven't taken advantage of i state regulations because they| haven't taken advantage of the great _ haven't taken advantage of the great brexit _ haven't taken advantage of the great brexit opportunity. - haven't taken advantage of the great brexit opportunity. and i great brexit opportunity. and then— great brexit opportunity. and then finally— great brexit opportunity. and then finally the _ great brexit opportunity. and then finally the cost - great brexit opportunity. and then finally the cost of- great brexit opportunity. and then finally the cost of net i then finally the cost of net zero. _ then finally the cost of net zero. you _ then finally the cost of net zero, you can't— then finally the cost of net zero, you can't grow- then finally the cost of net zero, you can't grow an. then finally the cost of net - zero, you can't grow an economy on that— zero, you can't grow an economy on that basis, — zero, you can't grow an economy on that basis, and _ zero, you can't grow an economy on that basis, and i— zero, you can't grow an economy on that basis, and i have - on that basis, and i have already— on that basis, and i have already been— on that basis, and i have already been proven i on that basis, and i have i already been proven right. my concern — already been proven right. my concern is _ already been proven right. my concern is that _ already been proven right. my concern is that labour- already been proven right. my concern is that labour can i already been proven right. my concern is that labour can goi concern is that labour can go on a — concern is that labour can go on a willy—nilly_ concern is that labour can go on a willy—nilly spending i on a willy—nilly spending spree, _ on a willy—nilly spending spree. and _ on a willy—nilly spending spree, and a _ on a willy—nilly spending spree, and a could - on a willy—nilly spending spree, and a could go. on a willy—nilly spending - spree, and a could go bankrupt. isnt— spree, and a could go bankrupt. isn't it _ spree, and a could go bankrupt. isn't it more _ spree, and a could go bankrupt. isn't it more the _ spree, and a could go bankrupt. isn't it more the case _ spree, and a could go bankrupt. isn't it more the case that- isn't it more the case that voters are turning to you as a protest vote rather than anything that you are standing for? . , ,., , anything that you are standing for? absolutely the opposite. three years _ for? absolutely the opposite. three years ago _ for? absolutely the opposite. three years ago we _ for? absolutely the opposite. three years ago we were i for? absolutely the opposite. three years ago we were on i for? absolutely the opposite. i three years ago we were on 1% and three years ago we were on1% and nobody— three years ago we were on 1% and nobody had _ three years ago we were on 1% and nobody had heard - three years ago we were on1% and nobody had heard of- three years ago we were on 1% and nobody had heard of us, i three years ago we were on 1% and nobody had heard of us, it| and nobody had heard of us, it takes — and nobody had heard of us, it takes time _ and nobody had heard of us, it takes time to _ and nobody had heard of us, it takes time to build _ and nobody had heard of us, it takes time to build a _ and nobody had heard of us, it takes time to build a brand. i takes time to build a brand. but — takes time to build a brand. but actually _ takes time to build a brand. but actually we _ takes time to build a brand. but actually we say, - takes time to build a brand. but actually we say, you i takes time to build a brand. i but actually we say, you have -ot but actually we say, you have got the — but actually we say, you have got the courage _ but actually we say, you have got the courage to _ but actually we say, you have got the courage to say- but actually we say, you have got the courage to say that i got the courage to say that there — got the courage to say that there are _ got the courage to say that there are radical— got the courage to say that there are radical bold - got the courage to say that i there are radical bold proposal to save —

there are radical bold proposal to save britain, _ there are radical bold proposal to save britain, because - there are radical bold proposal to save britain, because we i there are radical bold proposali to save britain, because we are in a recession. _ to save britain, because we are in a recession, throughout i to save britain, because we are in a recession, throughout the i in a recession, throughout the whole — in a recession, throughout the whole of— in a recession, throughout the whole of 2023, _ in a recession, throughout the whole of 2023, we _ in a recession, throughout the whole of 2023, we were - in a recession, throughout the whole of 2023, we were in i whole of 2023, we were in recession— whole of 2023, we were in recession per— whole of 2023, we were in recession per head - whole of 2023, we were in recession per head gdp, i whole of 2023, we were in i recession per head gdp, and peopte — recession per head gdp, and peopte are _ recession per head gdp, and people are feeling _ people are feeling significantly - people are feeling i significantly poorer as a result— significantly poorer as a result of— significantly poorer as a result of this _ significantly poorer as a . result of this conservative government's— result of this conservative government's policies. i result of this conservative l government's policies. the conservative _ government's policies. the conservative say _ government's policies. the conservative say a - government's policies. conservative say a vote government's policies.- conservative say a vote for reform is a vote to put sir keir starmer in number ten, and they are right, aren't they? if they are right, aren't they? if the conservatives do lose, that may well be because of conservative voters turn it to you instead. without fear is actually a vote for the labour party. actually a vote for the labour pa . ., , . party. the tories are terrified of us because _ party. the tories are terrified of us because we _ party. the tories are terrified of us because we have - party. the tories are terrified of us because we have got i party. the tories are terrified | of us because we have got the policies — of us because we have got the policies that _ of us because we have got the policies that make _ of us because we have got the policies that make sense, i of us because we have got thej policies that make sense, that will save — policies that make sense, that will save britain, _ policies that make sense, that will save britain, and - policies that make sense, that will save britain, and they- will save britain, and they realise _ will save britain, and they realise that _ will save britain, and they realise that they've - will save britain, and they realise that they've had i will save britain, and they. realise that they've had their opportunity— realise that they've had their opportunity and _ realise that they've had their opportunity and messed i realise that they've had their opportunity and messed up i realise that they've had their . opportunity and messed up the economy, _ opportunity and messed up the economy, they've _ opportunity and messed up the economy, they've allowed - opportunity and messed up the i economy, they've allowed mass immigration. _ economy, they've allowed mass immigration, they— economy, they've allowed mass immigration, they are _ economy, they've allowed mass immigration, they are obsessed with net— immigration, they are obsessed with net zero. _ immigration, they are obsessed with net zero, the _ immigration, they are obsessed with net zero, the labour- immigration, they are obsessed with net zero, the labour partyl with net zero, the labour party is the _ with net zero, the labour party is the same. _ with net zero, the labour party is the same, so _ with net zero, the labour party is the same, so people - with net zero, the labour party is the same, so people are - is the same, so people are actually— is the same, so people are actually voting _ is the same, so people are actually voting positively. is the same, so people are l actually voting positively and saying. — actually voting positively and saying. thank— actually voting positively and saying, thank heavens - actually voting positively and saying, thank heavens for. saying, thank heavens for someone _ saying, thank heavens for someone who— saying, thank heavens for someone who has - saying, thank heavens for someone who has arrived| saying, thank heavens for. someone who has arrived on saying, thank heavens for- someone who has arrived on the scene _ someone who has arrived on the scene with— someone who has arrived on the scene with good _ someone who has arrived on the scene with good policies - someone who has arrived on the scene with good policies that - scene with good policies that will essentially _ scene with good policies that will essentially save - scene with good policies that will essentially save britain, i will essentially save britain, and that _ will essentially save britain, and that is _ will essentially save britain, and that is why _ will essentially save britain, and that is why people - will essentially save britain, and that is why people are l and that is why people are starting _ and that is why people are starting to—

and that is why people are starting to vote _ and that is why people are starting to vote for - and that is why people are starting to vote for us. - and that is why people are starting to vote for us. sol starting to vote for us. so what would _ starting to vote for us. what would be a good starting to vote for us.“ what would be a good result starting to vote for us._ what would be a good result for you here tonight? put a figure on it. iiii you here tonight? put a figure on it. a, a, you here tonight? put a figure on it. i, t, t, on it. if we are at or around. our national polling average, we witt— our national polling average, we will be _ our national polling average, we will be delighted, - our national polling average, we will be delighted, that. we will be delighted, that would _ we will be delighted, that would be _ we will be delighted, that would be the _ we will be delighted, that would be the first - we will be delighted, that would be the first time. l we will be delighted, that - would be the first time. we've been — would be the first time. we've been criticised _ would be the first time. we've been criticised in _ would be the first time. we've been criticised in the - would be the first time. we've been criticised in the past - would be the first time. we've been criticised in the past by. been criticised in the past by members _ been criticised in the past by members of— been criticised in the past by members of the _ been criticised in the past by members of the media - been criticised in the past by members of the media thati been criticised in the past by. members of the media that we have _ members of the media that we have never— members of the media that we have never in— members of the media that we have never in a _ members of the media that we have never in a by—election - have never in a by—election equalled _ have never in a by—election equalled our— have never in a by—election equalled our polling, - have never in a by—election equalled our polling, and l have never in a by—election . equalled our polling, and that is att— equalled our polling, and that is all going _ equalled our polling, and that is all going to _ equalled our polling, and that is all going to change - equalled our polling, and that is all going to change this - is all going to change this evening, _ is all going to change this evening, and— is all going to change this evening, and i— is all going to change this evening, and i think- is all going to change this i evening, and i think people will realise _ evening, and i think people will realise we _ evening, and i think people will realise we have - evening, and i think people| will realise we have arrived. we are _ will realise we have arrived. we are on _ will realise we have arrived. we are on the _ will realise we have arrived. we are on the political- will realise we have arrived. | we are on the political map, and — we are on the political map, and we — we are on the political map, and we witt— we are on the political map, and we will be _ we are on the political map, and we will be polling - we are on the political map, and we will be polling in - we are on the political map, i and we will be polling in both these — and we will be polling in both these by—elections_ and we will be polling in both these by—elections third - these by—elections third largest, _ these by—elections third largest, and _ these by—elections third largest, and we - these by—elections third largest, and we are - these by—elections third - largest, and we are delighted. and a — largest, and we are delighted. and a finat— largest, and we are delighted. and a final question, - largest, and we are delighted. and a final question, you - largest, and we are delighted. and a final question, you havei and a final question, you have said before you will stand in every seat and challenge the conservatives. are you willing to reiterate that promise? i to reiterate that promise? i completely without question reiterate _ completely without question reiterate it. _ completely without question reiterate it. no _ completely without question reiterate it. no deals, - completely without question reiterate it. no deals, no. reiterate it. no deals, no pacts. _ reiterate it. no deals, no pacts. we _ reiterate it. no deals, no pacts, we want _ reiterate it. no deals, no pacts, we want the - reiterate it. no deals, nol pacts, we want the british people _ pacts, we want the british people to _ pacts, we want the british people to have _ pacts, we want the british people to have the - pacts, we want the british people to have the choice| people to have the choice everywhere _ people to have the choice everywhere of _ people to have the choice everywhere of our - people to have the choice| everywhere of our policies people to have the choice - everywhere of our policies that will save — everywhere of our policies that will save britain. _ everywhere of our policies that will save britain.— will save britain. richard tice of reform — will save britain. richard tice of reform uk. _ will save britain. richard tice of reform uk. so _ will save britain. richard tice of reform uk. so john - will save britain. richard tice| of reform uk. so john curtice of reform uk. sojohn curtice is still with me on this by

election coverage. in wellingborough, it was more pro brexit than kingswood, so do you think that reform have a better chance of increasing their share of the vote there? you are right, wellingborough is a somewhat more pro leave consistency, and they have put up consistency, and they have put up ben habib as their candidate, one of richard tice's deputies, and they have fought a determined campaign, so we ought to expect them to do somewhat better than their current average national polling rating given their candidate, given the campaign. maybe 12 or 13% would be regarded as at least a minimal reasonable expectation, but we will have to see, hopefully not too much longer, stay or how we have to wait. one other thing i should say is one thing we know is true of wellingborough is turn out is down by around 26 points, it was down by 3a

points, it was down by 3a points down in kingswood, and the truth is that in by—elections in this parliament, we are looking at now a record average drop is as compared with the last by—election. it is a higher than the drop in the 1997 to 2001 parliament, and that the equivalent figure in 1997 to 2001 was followed by a record low turnout in the general election. i think it is a message to all the parties here, they have got a lot of work to do is yet to enthuse the voters irrespective of their own sympathies. bir the voters irrespective of their own sympathies. sirjohn, for the moment, _ their own sympathies. sirjohn, for the moment, thank - their own sympathies. sirjohn, for the moment, thank you - their own sympathies. sirjohn, | for the moment, thank you very much. let's take you live to those pictures in kettering, where we are expecting the result from the wellingborough by—election soon, although they have looked like they may well be counting a few votes again, so maybe there is a weekend. we don't know at the moment, but we will keep an eye on those

pictures, and we will be back later with the result from wellingborough. but a reminder, the news already is that labour have overturned an 11,000 conservative majority to win the kingswood by—election. sir keir starmer held that result fantastic for labour. we will be back with the result from wellingborough shortly, and you can't stay with us here on bbc news and our life page. this is bbc news. we'll have the headlines for you at the top of the hour, which is straight after this programme. in september 2014, 43 students disappeared from passenger buses in the mexican town of iguala, guerrero. translation: they were in police custody, -

and then they're just gone. the federal government took charge of the case. police started finding many places with clandestine graves. it was just horrifying. just three months after the disappearance, the government announced they had solved the case. we were analysing the evidence. it wasjust not matching the official story. shouting protests erupted across mexico. a team of independent experts began their own investigation, and the government case starts to unravel.