mph front of the far wind of a0 mph front of the far north—east of scotland is not quite as mild an in fact the northern isles, only around 6 degrees but it will be dry and sunny here. going through the evening, that front has to move south and east and it will take its time in doing that, keeping us on our toes for the timing of the rain in the south—east corner but it means a different start a sunday morning. this is the early hours on sunday and you can see how heavy the rain is, through the midlands and into the south—east, hopefully easing off by around ten o'clock, ii easing off by around ten o'clock, 11 o'clock on sunday morning. but it needs a grey and wet start to sunday, right at skies and a few scattered showers following behind but not a bad end to sunday afternoon for most of us. top temperatures are likely to be between ten and ia celsius, still mild again. thanks, louise. and that's bbc news at ten. newsnight is just getting under way on bbc two with katie razzall. 0n bbc one, it's time

tojoin our colleagues the man some said vladimir putin wouldn't dare to kill is reported dead. does alexei navalny�*s demise show the russian president's total power or does it give him a political headache? as navalny�*s supporters protest in moscow, president biden said tonight his death is the consequence of "what putin and his thugs did." is he right? we'll hear from guests including maria litvinenko, the wife of the man murdered by the russian regime, and boris akunin, a prominent russian dissident and author. also tonight, with the tories reeling from two by—election defeats to labour, joe pike catches up with peter bone

whose behaviour triggered one of them. are you to blame for the result? we are not doing interviews today. have are not doing interviews today. have a lovely— are not doing interviews today. have a lovely day — 0ur political panel is here to make sense of where last night's results leave labour, the tories and reform ahead of the general election. good evening. there was a time when alexei navalny believed the more famous he got, the safer his life would be. that was before he was poisoned with the nerve agent novichok in 2020. he survived that attempt on his life. this morning, according to the russian prison service, the man who began his political life as a nationalist before becoming the putin regime's most prominent critic apparently collapsed and died at the penal colony in the arctic circle where he was transferred in december. world leaders meeting in munich said they hold the russian regime ultimately responsible. was his death always the plan, whether deliberate or as a result of the brutal treatment he has received since he was sent to prison

on what are widely believed to be politically motivated charges? and what does it mean for russia and the rest of us? we'll be trying to answer some of those questions in a moment, but first, joe inwood has this report — navalny in his own words. translation: corruption is the very basis - of the political system which putin founded, so if you are involved in fighting corruption, you're involved in politics. if i could run for election, i would. but first, we need to achieve honest elections so people like me can take part in them. this is a telegram from kremlin saying they see me and my team

as too dangerous to run for elections. but according to the constitution, i have every right to run, and i will do that to represent those who want to see russia as a normal, honest country. this is a major change in our society. unfortunately, there have been political prisoners in russia since at least 2003. but now we see that it has really become a mass people's movement, and i'm sure that more people will be released because of this rally. but in any case, this will be a long and complicated process, and we are just at the beginning of it. it looks like we have a search here. they are breaking in. they have taped the cameras and rushed into the anti—corruption foundation office right in the middle of our work meeting. it's new year and we have christmas

tree and we have a disco ball. as you can see, they have taped the last camera and now they are going to shred the door. translation: alexei - is in stable serious condition. what do you think it is? it is poisoning with some unknown agent. he is in a coma. translation: thank you. i am really happy to see you here. i hope we will be to get to russia. it would be nice if you would allow me to sit. no, no, they won't arrest me, because i am not guilty of anything. i want to conclude my speech by saying that i believe and i declare that they are not the

masters of our country, and will never be, and a huge number of people, tens of millions of people, agree with me. we will never allow these people to seize and steal our country. yes, now the power is on your side. and now you have the opportunity to put one person next to me, a second person next to me, handcuff me, but this will not last forever. i'm joined now by marina litvinenko whose husband alexander litvinenko was poisoned in london in 2006. financier and activist bill browder, who was once one of the biggest foreign investors in russia and later became an anti—corruption campaigner and one of vladimir putin's fiercest critics, joins us from munich where he has been for the munich security conference. and also remotely, former british ambassador to russia sir tony brenton and the exiled russian novelist boris akunin.

welcome to you all. thank you so much for coming on newsnight. boris akunin, if i could stop with you, you knew alexei navalny, please tell us what he was like.— tell us what he was like. i knew him for about 12 — tell us what he was like. i knew him for about 12 years, _ tell us what he was like. i knew him for about 12 years, so _ tell us what he was like. i knew him for about 12 years, so this _ tell us what he was like. i knew him for about 12 years, so this is - tell us what he was like. i knew him for about 12 years, so this is a - for about 12 years, so this is a personal loss for me as well. he was very lovable, everybody who knew him personally fell under the spell of his charm. he was a very witty man, he loves jerking all the time, even while he was imprisoned. he has an incredibly beautiful wife, yulia, theirs was a very romantic love story. now it is over, it is finished, in this tragic manner. indeed. and marina litvinenko, you probably more than anybody

understand what yulia is going through right now, your husband was killed by the russian regime. when you have what had happened today, what was your reaction? i you have what had happened today, what was your reaction?— what was your reaction? i became very angry — what was your reaction? i became very angry for _ what was your reaction? i became very angry for what _ what was your reaction? i became very angry for what happened. - what was your reaction? i became i very angry for what happened. alexei navalny _ very angry for what happened. alexei navalny was a prominent politician, and even _ navalny was a prominent politician, and even in — navalny was a prominent politician, and even in prison, when they were talking _ and even in prison, when they were talking about who was the most famous — talking about who was the most famous political opponent in russia, we knew— famous political opponent in russia, we knew it _ famous political opponent in russia, we knew it was alexei navalny. i hope _ we knew it was alexei navalny. i hope that — we knew it was alexei navalny. i hope that vladimir putin's regime would _ hope that vladimir putin's regime would collapse sooner and alexei navalny — would collapse sooner and alexei navalny it would be free one day, and now — navalny it would be free one day, and now we have lost this hope, that is why— and now we have lost this hope, that is why we _ and now we have lost this hope, that is why we have made —— ifeel so angry _ is why we have made -- i feel so an: . . is why we have made -- i feel so an. _ ., , is why we have made -- i feel so am _ ., , is why we have made -- i feel so an , ., , , , ., angry. i am sure. i will bring you all in later- _ we'll come back to you all in a moment, but we can hear now from sergei markov, a former russian mp and supporter of president putin, who i spoke to earlier.

i think there are two possible explanations. 0ne, it's natural. sometime, you know, there's such kind of a health problem could be. but also, if he has such natural problems with his heart, i think low—level officers of the prison also could share some responsibility, because he had been moved to the arctic zone and he stayed in prison during the last few years, almost 300 days in the special place as a punishment, where it was very cold and so on, and it can influence his health condition. a second version is that alexei navalny would be killed by a ukrainian intelligence service, which is in coalition with america and the british, which is clear political purpose to undermine legitimacy of the presidential elections, which will happen in russia just in one month from now, and in which vladimir putin presumably will get something

about 75% of popular support. there is a long history of political opponents of president putin dying, whether it is political opponents, lawyers, journalists, however it might be. do you not accept that it is president putin who will benefit? he has a problem now because of alexei navalny�*s death. he had the image as a major political opponent of vladimir putin, and this will be used extensively by opponents. bill. used extensively by opponents. bill, what is your— used extensively by opponents. bill, what is your reaction to what was being said there? it is what is your reaction to what was being said there?— what is your reaction to what was being said there? it is complete and utter nonsense _ being said there? it is complete and utter nonsense coming _ being said there? it is complete and utter nonsense coming from -

being said there? it is complete and utter nonsense coming from this - utter nonsense coming from this russian — utter nonsense coming from this russian individual. it is obvious to everyone — russian individual. it is obvious to everyone that alexei navalny was murdered — everyone that alexei navalny was murdered on the orders of vladimir putin _ murdered on the orders of vladimir putin he _ murdered on the orders of vladimir putin. he was poisoned in 2020 using novichok— putin. he was poisoned in 2020 using novichok hy— putin. he was poisoned in 2020 using novichok by the russian security services — novichok by the russian security services on the orders of vladimir putin _ services on the orders of vladimir putin they— services on the orders of vladimir putin. they failed to kill him in 2020 — putin. they failed to kill him in 2020. alex and i went to berlin, canre _ 2020. alex and i went to berlin, canre hack— 2020. alex and i went to berlin, came back from berlin knowing that he was _ came back from berlin knowing that he was going to be arrested, he was arrested _ he was going to be arrested, he was arrested by— he was going to be arrested, he was arrested by the people who tried to kill him _ arrested by the people who tried to kill him before, and now vladimir putin— kill him before, and now vladimir putin it _ kill him before, and now vladimir putin it is — kill him before, and now vladimir putin it is a — kill him before, and now vladimir putin it is a second attempt and this one was a successful. —— alexei navalny— this one was a successful. —— alexei navalny went — this one was a successful. —— alexei navalny went to berlin. to cast any doubt _ navalny went to berlin. to cast any doubt on _ navalny went to berlin. to cast any doubt on matters infantile, and coming — doubt on matters infantile, and coming from russia, he will be sure that over— coming from russia, he will be sure that over the next couple of years, the russian — that over the next couple of years, the russian government will put out all sorts— the russian government will put out all sorts of— the russian government will put out all sorts of stories about how alexei — all sorts of stories about how alexei navalny died of natural causes — alexei navalny died of natural causes and so on, this is standard operating — causes and so on, this is standard operating procedure when they conduct — operating procedure when they

conduct an assassination in prison. i conduct an assassination in prison. i have _ conduct an assassination in prison. i have seen— conduct an assassination in prison. i have seen it before with my own eyes _ i have seen it before with my own eyes when — i have seen it before with my own eyes when my lawyer was murdered in 2009. _ eyes when my lawyer was murdered in 2009. and _ eyes when my lawyer was murdered in 2009. and i_ eyes when my lawyer was murdered in 2009, and i guarantee you they will io 2009, and i guarantee you they will go through— 2009, and i guarantee you they will go through this and cover up techniques going forward on alexei navalny _ techniques going forward on alexei navalny l— techniques going forward on alexei navaln . ., ~' techniques going forward on alexei navaln . ., ~ ., ., , , navalny. i would like to get a sense of why now- — navalny. i would like to get a sense of why now. marina, _ navalny. i would like to get a sense of why now. marina, we _ navalny. i would like to get a sense of why now. marina, we saw - navalny. i would like to get a sense of why now. marina, we saw alex . navalny. i would like to get a sensej of why now. marina, we saw alex in navalny. i would like to get a sense l of why now. marina, we saw alex in a army only yesterday smiling and laughing, do you have any sense of why today we have this news? in laughing, do you have any sense of why today we have this news? in 2018 when serei why today we have this news? in 2018 when sergei skripal _ why today we have this news? in 2018 when sergei skripal was _ why today we have this news? in 2018 when sergei skripal was poisoned, - when sergei skripal was poisoned, russian propaganda immediately tried to suggest it was not a reason to do this because of the image of vladimir putin would be spoiled, of course he did not do this, but it is exactly the same, it is not about the image of vladimir putin, it is to show they can do anything, and now when they fight in ukraine, and

sometimes even be more frightening, they want to show we have anybody who will take you out of this, alexei navalny they could do even in prison. 50 alexei navalny they could do even in rison. ., , �* ., ., , ., , prison. so tony brenton, a few years ao prison. so tony brenton, a few years an ou prison. so tony brenton, a few years ago you said — prison. so tony brenton, a few years ago you said it _ prison. so tony brenton, a few years ago you said it was _ prison. so tony brenton, a few years ago you said it was not _ prison. so tony brenton, a few years ago you said it was not to _ prison. so tony brenton, a few years ago you said it was not to vladimir i ago you said it was not to vladimir putin's advantage to have alexei navalny assassinated, what do you think changed or do you think that change? do you think this is a political killing?— political killing? first of all, this is a very _ political killing? first of all, this is a very sad _ political killing? first of all, this is a very sad day. - political killing? first of all, this is a very sad day. he i political killing? first of all, i this is a very sad day. he was political killing? first of all, . this is a very sad day. he was a great _ this is a very sad day. he was a great nran. _ this is a very sad day. he was a great man, he combined two things which _ great man, he combined two things which do _ great man, he combined two things which do not go well together, he was an— which do not go well together, he was an effective practical politician in attacking the russian regime _ politician in attacking the russian regime for corruption, and bring together— regime for corruption, and bring together opposition parties, but he also had _ together opposition parties, but he also had a — together opposition parties, but he also had a certain moral force which was summed up, his return, he knew he would _ was summed up, his return, he knew he would be — was summed up, his return, he knew he would be arrested. a great man,

this is— he would be arrested. a great man, this is a _ he would be arrested. a great man, this is a very— he would be arrested. a great man, this is a very sad day. in response to your— this is a very sad day. in response to your question, in a sense, joe biden— to your question, in a sense, joe biden and — to your question, in a sense, joe biden and david cameron and all those _ biden and david cameron and all those people are right, vladimir putin— those people are right, vladimir putin is— those people are right, vladimir putin is responsible for alexei navalny's death, the locking away and repeated sentences and all that. i am and repeated sentences and all that. i am more _ and repeated sentences and all that. i am more dubious about the suggestion that somehow he was murdered today. the reason being that _ murdered today. the reason being that, and — murdered today. the reason being that, and marina is absolutely right, — that, and marina is absolutely right, of— that, and marina is absolutely right, of course, the reality is that— right, of course, the reality is that at— right, of course, the reality is that at the _ right, of course, the reality is that at the moment in the us congress, there is a very important debate _ congress, there is a very important debate going on about supplying more money— debate going on about supplying more money to— debate going on about supplying more money to ukraine for the fight, and this death _ money to ukraine for the fight, and this death evidently strengthens the case of— this death evidently strengthens the case of those questioning giving me money _ case of those questioning giving me money. alexei navalny was already in 'ail, money. alexei navalny was already in jail. he _ money. alexei navalny was already in jail. he was _ money. alexei navalny was already in jail, he was no longer a threat to anything — jail, he was no longer a threat to anything. why would they do it when it was— anything. why would they do it when it was bound to tip the debate

against — it was bound to tip the debate against russia? 30 it was bound to tip the debate against russia?— it was bound to tip the debate aiainst russia? i. �* , , against russia? so you're suggesting he died of natural _ against russia? so you're suggesting he died of natural causes? _ against russia? so you're suggesting he died of natural causes? it - against russia? so you're suggesting he died of natural causes? it is - against russia? so you're suggesting he died of natural causes? it is a - he died of natural causes? it is a touih he died of natural causes? it is a tough place _ he died of natural causes? it is a tough place out _ he died of natural causes? it is a tough place out there, _ he died of natural causes? it is a tough place out there, he - he died of natural causes? it is a tough place out there, he did - he died of natural causes? it is a i tough place out there, he did have he died of natural causes? it is a - tough place out there, he did have a various— tough place out there, he did have a various physical problems. looking at that, _ various physical problems. looking at that, they are not that incompetent, they can see the costs, and my— incompetent, they can see the costs, and my guess is that this happened from natural causes, yes.— from natural causes, yes. boris, what do you _ from natural causes, yes. boris, what do you say _ from natural causes, yes. boris, what do you say to _ from natural causes, yes. boris, what do you say to that? - from natural causes, yes. boris, what do you say to that? it - from natural causes, yes. boris, i what do you say to that? it doesn't matter whether _ what do you say to that? it doesn't matter whether he _ what do you say to that? it doesn't matter whether he was _ what do you say to that? it doesn't i matter whether he was killed quickly or slowly because they put him 27 times into the punishment cell. it would kill anybody eventually. what is significant is that alexei navalny was russia's mandela, and now this mandela is dead. he was killed. this is what all of us feel, and he will not run for the presidency, never, which means that

the political system in russia will not be changed by election, it will be changed and can be changed only by revolution. this is what is going to happen after today, definitely. i wonder about the impact it will have in russia, how do you view that? ., ., ., , ., that? you have to understand the putin main _ that? you have to understand the putin main audience _ that? you have to understand the putin main audience is _ that? you have to understand the putin main audience is the - that? you have to understand the | putin main audience is the russian people _ putin main audience is the russian people. not what is happening in congress — people. not what is happening in congress. he has an election coming up congress. he has an election coming up where _ congress. he has an election coming up where he — congress. he has an election coming up where he can't have any sign of dissent, _ up where he can't have any sign of dissent, so — up where he can't have any sign of dissent, so what is the best way of getting _ dissent, so what is the best way of getting rid — dissent, so what is the best way of getting rid of dissent, you take the most _ getting rid of dissent, you take the most important political figure in the country and you kill him in front— the country and you kill him in front of— the country and you kill him in front of everybody and you look at everybody — front of everybody and you look at everybody and basically indicate to everybody and basically indicate to everybody that you have killed them. it everybody that you have killed them. it means _ everybody that you have killed them. it means anyone else who has political — it means anyone else who has political opposition instincts or intense — political opposition instincts or intense will say to themselves i don't _ intense will say to themselves i don't want to do that because i

don't _ don't want to do that because i don't want _ don't want to do that because i don't want to do that because i don't want to die, so it is clear to me and _ don't want to die, so it is clear to me and just — don't want to die, so it is clear to me and just about any other clear thinking _ me and just about any other clear thinking person that putin was doing this the _ thinking person that putin was doing this the way he has done all sorts of murders. — this the way he has done all sorts of murders, to shut people up and repress— of murders, to shut people up and repress and — of murders, to shut people up and repress and terrorise people and this eliminates all political competition now and in the future. marina _ competition now and in the future. marina litvinenko, when it comes to accountability you have learnt to your cost it doesn't matter how many uk railings might be on your husband was my case, the murderers are still free, the resume has not been sanctioned and anyway, internally anyway, do you get the sense in anyway, do you get the sense in anyway that president putin, the russian regime will ever be held accountable for this? i russian regime will ever be held accountable for this?— accountable for this? i think it is accountable for this? i think it is a huie accountable for this? i think it is a huge challenge _ accountable for this? i think it is a huge challenge for— accountable for this? i think it is a huge challenge for the - accountable for this? i think it is a huge challenge for the west, i accountable for this? i think it is i a huge challenge for the west, how many other murders and killing prominent opposition people in russia in another part of the world you accept. how long can you leave putin still be the person you might

be negotiating with? the only way what it was saying about revolution or starting to collapse his regime of putin is to support ukraine and this is the big question. this is a part of the war when the russian regime started to collapse. in part of the war when the russian regime started to collapse. in terms ofthe regime started to collapse. in terms of the funding _ regime started to collapse. in terms of the funding of _ regime started to collapse. in terms of the funding of the _ regime started to collapse. in terms of the funding of the ground - regime started to collapse. in terms of the funding of the ground but - of the funding of the ground but also in terms of how this will play out across the world... it is also in terms of how this will play out across the world. . ._ out across the world... it is very clear how _ out across the world... it is very clear how displaying _ out across the world... it is very clear how displaying in - out across the world... it is very clear how displaying in the - out across the world... it is very | clear how displaying in the west, out across the world... it is very - clear how displaying in the west, we have seen— clear how displaying in the west, we have seen biden _ clear how displaying in the west, we have seen biden and _ clear how displaying in the west, we have seen biden and cameron- clear how displaying in the west, we have seen biden and cameron and l have seen biden and cameron and others _ have seen biden and cameron and others saying _ have seen biden and cameron and others saying papacy _ have seen biden and cameron and others saying papacy putin - have seen biden and cameron and others saying papacy putin is - others saying papacy putin is responsible _ others saying papacy putin is responsible for— others saying papacy putin is responsible for this - others saying papacy putin is responsible for this and - others saying papacy putin is responsible for this and he . others saying papacy putin isl responsible for this and he is, others saying papacy putin is - responsible for this and he is, and we need _ responsible for this and he is, and we need to— responsible for this and he is, and we need to respond _ responsible for this and he is, and we need to respond but— responsible for this and he is, and we need to respond but i- responsible for this and he is, and we need to respond but i find - responsible for this and he is, and we need to respond but i find it i we need to respond but i find it slightly— we need to respond but i find it slightly queasy _ we need to respond but i find it slightly queasy since _ we need to respond but i find it slightly queasy since these - we need to respond but i find it slightly queasy since these arei we need to respond but i find it - slightly queasy since these are men who sit— slightly queasy since these are men who sit quietly _ slightly queasy since these are men who sit quietly by _ slightly queasy since these are men who sit quietly by confronted - slightly queasy since these are men who sit quietly by confronted by- slightly queasy since these are men| who sit quietly by confronted by and slaughtered — who sit quietly by confronted by and slaughtered and _ who sit quietly by confronted by and slaughtered and goes _ who sit quietly by confronted by and slaughtered and goes out _ who sit quietly by confronted by and slaughtered and goes out so - who sit quietly by confronted by and slaughtered and goes out so be - who sit quietly by confronted by and slaughtered and goes out so be it, i slaughtered and goes out so be it, the reaction — slaughtered and goes out so be it, the reaction in _ slaughtered and goes out so be it, the reaction in russia _ slaughtered and goes out so be it, the reaction in russia i— slaughtered and goes out so be it, the reaction in russia i suspect, i slaughtered and goes out so be it, the reaction in russia i suspect, it| the reaction in russia i suspect, it is a very— the reaction in russia i suspect, it is a very repressed _ the reaction in russia i suspect, it is a very repressed place - the reaction in russia i suspect, it is a very repressed place now, - the reaction in russia i suspect, it is a very repressed place now, all| is a very repressed place now, all of the _ is a very repressed place now, all of the conditions _ is a very repressed place now, all of the conditions of _ is a very repressed place now, all of the conditions of a _ is a very repressed place now, all of the conditions of a wartime - of the conditions of a wartime society— of the conditions of a wartime society and _ of the conditions of a wartime society and controls _ of the conditions of a wartime society and controls on - of the conditions of a wartimel society and controls on people expressing _ society and controls on people expressing opposition- society and controls on people expressing opposition of- society and controls on people expressing opposition of any. society and controls on people - expressing opposition of any sort,

strong _ expressing opposition of any sort, strong, unfortunately— expressing opposition of any sort, strong, unfortunately the - expressing opposition of any sort, i strong, unfortunately the likelihood of alexei _ strong, unfortunately the likelihood of alexei navalny's _ strong, unfortunately the likelihood of alexei navalny's death _ strong, unfortunately the likelihood of alexei navalny's death leading. strong, unfortunately the likelihoodj of alexei navalny's death leading to any sort _ of alexei navalny's death leading to any sort of — of alexei navalny's death leading to any sort of serious _ of alexei navalny's death leading to any sort of serious corruption - of alexei navalny's death leading to any sort of serious corruption or- any sort of serious corruption or low _ any sort of serious corruption or low, but — any sort of serious corruption or low, but you _ any sort of serious corruption or low, but you have _ any sort of serious corruption or low, but you have seen - any sort of serious corruption or low, but you have seen odd - any sort of serious corruption or- low, but you have seen odd symptoms, you have _ low, but you have seen odd symptoms, you have seen — low, but you have seen odd symptoms, you have seen the — low, but you have seen odd symptoms, you have seen the candidacy— low, but you have seen odd symptoms, you have seen the candidacy of- low, but you have seen odd symptoms, you have seen the candidacy of an - you have seen the candidacy of an anti-war— you have seen the candidacy of an anti—war candidate, _ you have seen the candidacy of an anti—war candidate, now- you have seen the candidacy of an anti—war candidate, now blotted l you have seen the candidacy of an i anti—war candidate, now blotted out, attracting _ anti—war candidate, now blotted out, attracting a _ anti—war candidate, now blotted out, attracting a lot — anti—war candidate, now blotted out, attracting a lot of _ anti—war candidate, now blotted out, attracting a lot of support _ anti—war candidate, now blotted out, attracting a lot of support in - anti—war candidate, now blotted out, attracting a lot of support in the - attracting a lot of support in the presidential— attracting a lot of support in the presidential election, _ attracting a lot of support in the presidential election, people i presidential election, people queueing _ presidential election, people queueing up _ presidential election, people queueing up by— presidential election, people queueing up bya _ presidential election, people queueing up by a stone - presidential election, people | queueing up by a stone laying flowers— queueing up by a stone laying flowers in— queueing up by a stone laying flowers in memory— queueing up by a stone laying flowers in memory of - queueing up by a stone laying flowers in memory of alexei i queueing up by a stone laying - flowers in memory of alexei navalny. there _ flowers in memory of alexei navalny. there is _ flowers in memory of alexei navalny. there is an _ flowers in memory of alexei navalny. there is an underlying _ flowers in memory of alexei navalny. there is an underlying search - flowers in memory of alexei navalny. there is an underlying search for- there is an underlying search for a better— there is an underlying search for a better regime _ there is an underlying search for a better regime there _ there is an underlying search for a better regime there which - there is an underlying search for a better regime there which i - there is an underlying search for a better regime there which i very. better regime there which i very much _ better regime there which i very much hope _ better regime there which i very much hope over— better regime there which i very much hope over time _ better regime there which i very much hope over time will- better regime there which i very much hope over time will bringl much hope over time will bring results — much hope over time will bring results but _ much hope over time will bring results but i _ much hope over time will bring results but i don't _ much hope over time will bring results but i don't think- much hope over time will bring results but i don't think it - much hope over time will bring results but i don't think it will. much hope over time will bring i results but i don't think it will be very quick — results but i don't think it will be very quick. lnie— results but i don't think it will be very quick-— very quick. we have seen people la ini very quick. we have seen people laying flowers — very quick. we have seen people laying flowers from _ very quick. we have seen people laying flowers from the - very quick. we have seen people laying flowers from the valley i laying flowers from the valley across russia and wider. will anything happen? what is your prediction, could anything happen and will anything change in russia as a result of this? idol and will anything change in russia

as a result of this?— and will anything change in russia as a result of this? not soon. i get as a result of this? not soon. i get a lot of letters _ as a result of this? not soon. i get a lot of letters from _ as a result of this? not soon. i get a lot of letters from readers, - as a result of this? not soon. i get a lot of letters from readers, from | a lot of letters from readers, from russia, and i see there are more and more people who write to me how unbearable life is becoming morally, and a lot of people write that i will go out into the street if i see other people are out, i don't want to go out and be arrested. so from here it is quite part of the revolution definitely. but this protesting mood is accumulating and navalny�*s death is going to mean a lot for many people in russia. bill. lot for many people in russia. bill, ou lot for many people in russia. bill, you mentioned _ lot for many people in russia. bill, you mentioned sergei magnitsky the lawyer, you knew, the long list of people who died at the hands of the russian regime, where does this deficit? i russian regime, where does this

deficit? ., , russian regime, where does this deficit? ~ , , ., ., deficit? i think this is one of the most significant _ deficit? i think this is one of the most significant debts _ deficit? i think this is one of the most significant debts and - deficit? i think this is one of the i most significant debts and murders deficit? i think this is one of the - most significant debts and murders i should _ most significant debts and murders i should say— most significant debts and murders i should say that vladimir putin has ever committed. alexei navalny is extremely— ever committed. alexei navalny is extremely well known and well liked, very popular, and to kill somebody, such an _ very popular, and to kill somebody, such an asset for the country i think— such an asset for the country i think is— such an asset for the country i think is a _ such an asset for the country i think is a major step. i think it shows— think is a major step. i think it shows putin is feeling scared. he is feeling _ shows putin is feeling scared. he is feeling worried.— feeling worried. thank you all so much for coming _ feeling worried. thank you all so much for coming on. _ feeling worried. thank you all so much for coming on. we - feeling worried. thank you all so much for coming on. we have i feeling worried. thank you all sol much for coming on. we have run feeling worried. thank you all so - much for coming on. we have run out of time. and straight after newsnight on bbc two, you can watch the oscar—winning storyville navalny, which follows alexei navalny as he and his team investigate who was behind his poisoning with the nerve agent novichock. earlier this week, keir starmer was facing some of the most testing times of his leadership, as the row over alleged anti—semitism that had engulfed the party underjeremy corbyn's

leadership exploded again and saw the party disassociate itself from its candidate in the upcoming rochdale byelection. what a difference a few days can make. now he's riding high, after two stunning by—election wins in wellingborough and kingswood. it was a terrible night for the conservatives, but a great one notjust for labour but the reform party, which secured its best ever by—election results. here'sjoe pike. this morning, two months after the door closed on peter bone's political career, his partner, tory candidate helen harrison, has also been rejected by voters. are you to blame for the results? we're not doing interviews. what should rishi sunak do to change his party's fate? mr bone was found to have exposed himself to a staff member and physically struck him, something he denies. some argue his role in this conservative campaign

was a factor in its failure. labour has won the - wellingborough byelection... there were two extraordinary wins in one night for keir starmer�*s party. and in wellingborough, reform uk secured 13% of the vote. their candidate had a spring in his step. and it wasn't just the caffeine. remarkable. we're an insurgent party and we've more than doubled our vote take in a few months. you extrapolate that out and we'll be in government, you know, before you can say robert's your father's brother. really? well, if you extrapolate that out. but you think that's going to happen? no. ben habib senses revolution in the air and wants to challenge what he sees as the status quo. so you're trying to out—conservative the conservatives. it is a very low bar to out—conservative the conservatives, in fact, it's not a bar at all. they're socialists. soon after this town turned red,

labour put on another show of celebration for the media. historic wins are almost becoming a habit. labour's national campaign machine has been in full force to pull this off and it really worked. in a general election campaign, their resources would be spread far thinner. but if this run of byelection results is anything to go by, that may not make a huge difference. so is the general election a done deal? well, look, we're not complacent about anything. her you know, whether the threat is the tories, reform or anyone else, we are ready to take take them on. you're not scared of nigel farage? i'm not scared of nigel farage. and it's notjust in wellingborough, where voters seem to be walking away from the conservatives. there have been 11 byelections since rishi sunak took over as pm.

the tories succeeded injust one, uxbridge, although there was a swing to labour of seven percentage points. the lib dems picked up a seat from the conservatives somerton with a swing of 29. labour held three constituencies. they won one from the snp in rutherglen and won five from the conservatives, all with big swings. voters seem to be only heading in one direction and some tory activists are shocked quite how fast they're drifting away. i think it was a lot worse than what i envisaged, even in my worst nightmares. as someone who's knocking on doors you really struggle to get a consistent message across to the country, and that's really difficult because i think people don't necessarily have to like you or particularly like your policies, but if you've got a consistent message to sell them, at least they've got some kind of understanding of what you stand for and where you're going to go. and you don't have that at the moment. i don't think we've got that at the moment. no, i think we've got too many little factions in the party, too much infighting. wellingborough is smack bang

in the middle of the mi—ai corridor. these two roads stretch up from london to the north. some claim the area in between is the home of aspiration. this political landscape is packed with seats that voted labour in 1997 but have been turning tory ever since. now, though, swing voters seem to be on the move, meaning areas close by like kettering, corby, milton keynes, northampton could be in play for labour once again. this part of middle england could significantly speed keir starmer on what he hopes is hisjourney to downing street. with me, joe twyman, co—founder and director of deltapoll, ayesha hazarika, former labour adviser and now times radio presenter, and john 0xley, a political commentator and strategist. welcome. joe, if we start with you. how do we —

welcome. joe, if we start with you. how do we read _ welcome. joe, if we start with you. how do we read these, _ welcome. joe, if we start with you. how do we read these, do - welcome. joe, if we start with you. how do we read these, do we - welcome. joe, if we start with you. how do we read these, do we take | how do we read these, do we take these election results to mean labour is on course for a majority? we don't know because the last ten years british politics have total is nothing to be taken for granted but if you look at the long—term trends in the polls nationally, labour has been doing very well. the conservatives have not been ahead in any published opinion polls since december 2021 and labour has had a double—digit lead since september 2022. so it has been looking good for them and give the most recent polls were replicated at a general election you would expect these constituencies to go to labour. so labour or doing as well as a national poll suggest but there isn't a general election tomorrow and that may be some months until there is one and things can change before then, but will they, as each day goes past and they don't it is looking increasingly unlikely. ayesha? i looking increasingly unlikely. a esha? ., , looking increasingly unlikely. aesha? ., , ., ., ayesha? i agree. it is important to not extrapolate _ ayesha? i agree. it is important to not extrapolate everything - ayesha? i agree. it is important to not extrapolate everything from i ayesha? i agree. it is important to not extrapolate everything from a | not extrapolate everything from a by—election because when there is a general— by—election because when there is a general election it is different, in the heat — general election it is different, in the heat of a short campaign and

those _ the heat of a short campaign and those messages getting sent out, how the manifesto lens, it can make a difference — the manifesto lens, it can make a difference but what seems be consistent is every time the voting public— consistent is every time the voting public have — consistent is every time the voting public have contact with the ballot box they are sending quite a clear message, — box they are sending quite a clear message, that they want change and i think you'll— message, that they want change and i think you'll think interesting from a labour— think you'll think interesting from a labour perspective is the range of seats— a labour perspective is the range of seats labour is winning. historically if you look back at 2010 — historically if you look back at 2010 and _ historically if you look back at 2010 and 2015, 2017, 2019, certain areas _ 2010 and 2015, 2017, 2019, certain areas labour felt they could never crack. _ areas labour felt they could never crack. tory — areas labour felt they could never crack, tory heartland seats, now that feels— crack, tory heartland seats, now that feels it is changing. the other by—election i think is a really important one was the rutherglen and hamilton— important one was the rutherglen and hamilton west because it showed labour— hamilton west because it showed labour were starting to make a revival — labour were starting to make a revival in — labour were starting to make a revival in scotland. i think you can't — revival in scotland. i think you can't take _ revival in scotland. i think you can't take too much but there is definitely— can't take too much but there is definitely a narrative that is now in train — definitely a narrative that is now in train. , ., , in train. john, is writing in the numbers _ in train. john, is writing in the numbers that _ in train. john, is writing in the numbers that makes - in train. john, is writing in the numbers that makes you - in train. john, is writing in the - numbers that makes you question the labour vote. is there any sense it is soft and anyway? idol labour vote. is there any sense it

is soft and anyway?— is soft and anyway? not really. turnout is _ is soft and anyway? not really. turnout is pretty _ is soft and anyway? not really. turnout is pretty much - is soft and anyway? not really. turnout is pretty much in - is soft and anyway? not really. turnout is pretty much in line i is soft and anyway? not really. i turnout is pretty much in line with what _ turnout is pretty much in line with what we _ turnout is pretty much in line with what we would _ turnout is pretty much in line with what we would see _ turnout is pretty much in line with what we would see in _ turnout is pretty much in line with what we would see in any- what we would see in any by—election. _ what we would see in any by—election. this - what we would see in any by—election. this is - what we would see in any. by—election. this is stacking what we would see in any- by—election. this is stacking up with— by—election. this is stacking up with the — by—election. this is stacking up with the results _ by—election. this is stacking up with the results we saw- by—election. this is stacking up| with the results we saw in 1997. people — with the results we saw in 1997. people are _ with the results we saw in 1997. people are turning _ with the results we saw in 1997. people are turning out for - with the results we saw in 1997. . people are turning out for labour. these _ people are turning out for labour. these conservative _ people are turning out for labour. these conservative voters - people are turning out for labour. these conservative voters are - people are turning out for labour. - these conservative voters are moving over and _ these conservative voters are moving over and another— these conservative voters are moving over and another chunk _ these conservative voters are moving over and another chunk are _ these conservative voters are moving over and another chunk are staying i over and another chunk are staying at home _ over and another chunk are staying at home. basically— over and another chunk are staying at home. basically everything - over and another chunk are staying at home. basically everything thati at home. basically everything that needs— at home. basically everything that needs to happen— at home. basically everything that needs to happen for— at home. basically everything that needs to happen for labour to - at home. basically everything thati needs to happen for labour to have a very big win— needs to happen for labour to have a very big win and the _ very big win and the conservatives to do very— very big win and the conservatives to do very badly is _ very big win and the conservatives to do very badly is happening at. very big win and the conservatives. to do very badly is happening at the moment _ so, there's not a lot of options left for— so, there's not a lot of options left for the _ so, there's not a lot of options left for the conservative - so, there's not a lot of options left for the conservative partyl so, there's not a lot of optionsj left for the conservative party i don't _ left for the conservative party i don't think _ left for the conservative party i don't think. so _ left for the conservative party i don't think-— left for the conservative party i don't think. so what will people think, scratching _ don't think. so what will people think, scratching their- don't think. so what will people think, scratching their heads, i don't think. so what will people i think, scratching their heads, what can richey sue—mac do? think, scratching their heads, what can richey sue-mac do?— think, scratching their heads, what can richey sue-mac do? when you look at the most important _ can richey sue-mac do? when you look at the most important thing _ can richey sue-mac do? when you look at the most important thing facing - at the most important thing facing this country it's the cost of living. and it doesn't matter what political group you look at, to voters the cost of living comes

above everything else. so there is an opportunity to close the gap on labour in terms of who is best to deal with the economy. it's never been that... conservatives are not just behind a little, they are behind a lot on both the economic situation and the labour market situation. i situation and the labour market situation. ., , ., , ,, situation. i was wondering this week when it wasn't _ situation. i was wondering this week when it wasn't going _ situation. i was wondering this week when it wasn't going so _ situation. i was wondering this week when it wasn't going so well - situation. i was wondering this week when it wasn't going so well at - situation. i was wondering this week when it wasn't going so well at the i when it wasn't going so well at the beginning of the week, maybe this is the moment to go for it and now i'm thinking perhaps we will have another prime minister before we get to the election. is there any sense that the plotters will move against rishi subak?— that the plotters will move against rishi subak? ., , ,., ,_, rishi subak? there was the popcorn conference. — rishi subak? there was the popcorn conference, liz _ rishi subak? there was the popcorn conference, liz truss, _ rishi subak? there was the popcorn

conference, liz truss, a _ rishi subak? there was the popcorn conference, liz truss, a whole - rishi subak? there was the popcorn | conference, liz truss, a whole group of people. local elections on