welcome to hardtalk. i'm stephen sackur. when donald trump said he would let russia do whatever the hell it wanted in nato member states that were not prepared to pay their defence bills, he set alarm bells ringing right across europe. add to that the politicking in washington, which is blocking further us assistance to ukraine, and there is a growing, urgent sense that europe needs to get serious about its own security. my guest is bulgaria's prime minister, nikolai denkov. is the eu's poorest nation, where pro—russian sentiment is significant, one

of europe's weakest links? prime minister nikolai denkov in sofia, welcome to hardtalk. hello. glad to be with you. it's a pleasure to have you, mr prime minister. you know, as well as i do, that it is almost two years now since vladimir putin launched that all—out invasion of ukraine. we see the bitter attritional warfare continue in ukraine. do you think that the european union, and indeed bulgaria itself, have learned the right lessons over

the past two years? i think there are very big changes, both in europe and in bulgaria in particular. let me just give you an example. for bulgaria, we have cut the dependence on russian oil completely. for this two years, we have cut the dependence on russian gas, nuclearfuel. we have increased our budget for defence above 2%, something that was requested two years ago. so we have changed ourselves quite significantly, and i participate in the discussions at the european council. all of the countries in europe see that we have to change rapidly, and have made the steps that are necessary to start this process. but it will take some time to get there, where we want to be. you make a lot of different points there, many of them about the economic relationship with russia, which clearly has changed. and i want to discuss

that more with you. but before we get to the details of economics, let's just talk about feelings and the mindset of the bulgarian people. because, frankly, if i look at bulgaria today, from your head of state, the president on down, there are clearly many, many bulgarians who still feel significant sympathy for russia and are deeply sceptical about the war against russia. so let me separate two things. one of them are the historical and cultural ties that bulgaria has for many years with russia. on the other hand, the war that russia started against ukraine, and the invasion, quite significantly changed the attitude because the people started to understand that bulgaria can be

also a victim of a kind of aggression, maybe not exactly of such type, maybe a different one, but this sentiment started to fade with time. so if you look on the surveys, both national and the european surveys, you see that the attitude of bulgaria changed significantly during these two years. but, mr prime minister... so in some way the war... ..i�*m looking at those surveys. 32% of bulgarians still blame the west for the war, according to globsec�*s trends report of 2023. and pretty much a third of bulgarians perceive russia as a threat, which leads me to suppose two—thirds do not believe that. so you talk about a shift over two years. i suggest to you that bulgarians haven't shifted as much as you think. ok, but if you compare in these surveys, what was the pro—european attitude of the bulgarians and how many of them will choose between the more tight connections with russia or with europe, you'll see that in the meantime,

the attitude to the pro—european development, to the protection by nato as the main way to defend bulgaria, from the security viewpoint, you'll see that there is a shift. so this shift, of course, will take more time to be as stable as in the western countries because their historical reason for this. but the shift is there. your president, president radev, makes it plain every time he makes pronouncements on this, that he absolutely opposes the western arming of ukraine. he opposes continuation of the war. he expresses repeated sympathy for vladimir putin and his positions. and i noticed that, not so long ago, when you were asked about your relationship with president radev, you simply laughed, and after a few moments�* pause, you said, "i cannot explain his positions. "i don't know the answer "as to why he thinks the way he does."

this is completely dysfunctional, isn't it? he's the president, you're the prime minister. no, it's not dysfunctional because bulgaria is a republic that is based on the parliament. so the problem of our political system was, that for almost two years, there was no stable, regular government. in the meantime, the president appointed this interim government and actually he created a lot of confusion among the people. so when you say the shift is not that stable as we all expect, one of the reasons is that he took these positions, especially in bulgaria, and this confused the people. but in the last eight months we have a very stable government with a majority of two thirds that is pro—european, supporting ukraine. so the people started to understand what is the logical... ..what are the logical arguments that say, "ok,

we have to stay close to europe "to be fully integrated in europe and nato "because this is the way to go forward." so it is functional because the power is in the parliament when the parliament is stable. and this is the case today. 0k. so let's get to your point about bulgaria cutting its entrenched economic, particularly energy, ties, with russia. again, the data suggests that, over the past year, you've still been importing significant amounts of russian crude oil into your country and refining it inside bulgaria. it's been a business worth hundreds of millions of euros to bulgaria, and i know that there is now a pledge that you will stop that by, i believe, its next month. but there are many people in bulgaria who are not sure that's the right policy.

they're worried about your future energy supplies. they're also, some of them, a little bit cynical because you've signed a gas pipeline deal with turkey, which means you're importing more and more gas through that pipeline. and frankly, some of that gas probably comes from russia. so how can you really tell me that you've cut all your ties with russia? ok, so let us clarify first. so the refinery that used this crude oil is... ..belongs to lukoil. so it is a russian refinery. so it took some time to secure that we will have a crude oil that is non—russian that will come in time so the refinery can continue and we don't face a huge crisis of fuel if we cut this oil immediately. so that's why we had this derogation from the european commission. but we took the decision, and from 1st of march, this russian crude oil is forbidden to be imported in bulgaria. so it's already done. concerning the gas, actually, almost two years ago, russia cut

the gas that was for bulgaria. and since that time we don't import a russian gas for the use in the bulgarian households. instead of this, we have a pipeline, but this pipeline is a transit pipeline that goes from turkey to other countries like hungary, serbia, austria, if you like, north macedonia. so this pipeline is used for other countries and we have the contract that we should follow. so it's not a gas that is used by the bulgarian families. in this way we cut this dependence. before that, we were 100% dependent on the russian gas. all right. butjust to be clear on the turkish point, you don't know that some of that gas that you're importing from turkey is not russian gas, do you? there's no way you could know that. wait a second. so this pipeline that you refer to,

it doesn't transfer gas to bulgaria. it is a transit pipeline. so when you say that we use the turkish gas, it is a transit pipeline that transfer this gas to the other countries north and west of bulgaria. so we import gas from turkey that comes from liquid natural gas and from greece, which is also liquid natural gas. and it is with a certified source that is a non—russian one. all right. let's talk about different elements of russian influence in your country. former prime minister kiril petkov, who we had on this show some years back, he consistently said that the intelligence services in your country were penetrated by russia. he pledged to clean them out, but it was clear thatjob hadn't been finished by the time he left office. he also referred to russian cyber attacks in bulgaria. is that continuing, that kind of russian attempt to penetrate bulgaria ?

so there was some progress. let me remind you that in the government of kiril petkov we expelled 70 diplomats, russian diplomats, from bulgaria. so it was the biggest number at that time. and the main reason was to reduce the influence of the russian secret service in our country. after that, there were other number of diplomats that were also expelled. there was a case last year where some... i could say a religious priest actually had to be removed from bulgaria because it turned out that they have some links to the secret service of russia. so there are still some attempts from russia to influence us and our efforts to reduce this influence. but it's not over. yes, i agree with you. and this is a battle

that will continue. and what about russian individuals, significant individuals, businesspeople, inside your country? the eu news website euractiv last year claimed that there was evidence that bulgaria had failed to impose sanctions against key russian citizens and companies that were on the wider eu sanctions list. and i believe i'm right in saying that your own prosecutor's office has since announced that there's going to be, or there is, an investigation, into how bulgaria is implementing sanctions, or in some cases, how it's failing to implement them. you're the prime minister. what are you doing about it? i'll be very glad to support anyone and to assist anyone that comes and have clear cases how to fight these type of problems. i can say very clearly that, during our time, we are doing whatever is possible to cut the possible...the possible evasion of the sanctions. what i see, however, is quite often some rumours, some statements, that are not

validated after that. for example, there were a lot of discussions that bulgarian government, that the bulgarian customs, are not using the sanctions against the oil products. and it turned out that this is not the case, that actually the problem is a european problem. and on the national level, in the frame of the european regulations, we do everything that corresponds to these regulations, but it's not enough. this is a problem that is more a european problem rather than national problem including the nation of bulgaria. let's get to the wider geopolitics, which, of course, you have to look at very closely as a country in eastern europe that arguably could be said to be on the front line when there is hostility between russia and europe. donald trump, who it looks as though

he's pretty much certain to be the republican party nominee for the presidency, clearly has a very significant chance of returning to the white house. at least that's the way it looks right now. he said the other day that the us government would, if he was concerned, if he was in charge, would not protect nato if nato member states didn't pay the bills, as he put it. he said, "you don't pay, you're delinquent, "then no, i won't protect you. "in fact, i would encourage the russians, them, "the russians, to do whatever the hell they want." what was your response to that? first of all, we are working very hard in the last several years to modernise our army, including f—16 airplanes that have been ordered from the united states because we need air defence. also, we have armoured

vehicles that we ordered from the united states. so we are working very hard to increase the number of the troops that we have on our soil with more, not so much the number of the soldiers, rather than the capability. if there is a need to be dislocated here in bulgaria, if anything happens, we are integrating more and more in the nato eastern flank, together with our neighbours of romania and turkey. together we make our exercises. so we are doing whatever was expected and we are catching up very rapidly with these demands. so, ithink... you haven't been doing everything, have you, because bulgaria has not, as it stands, reached the 2% of national income

to be spent on defence? that threshold set by nato, you haven't met it. i think you're at i.8%. you've promised to get to 2% over the next year. but the fact is, you're not the only european country. many, many european countries are far from that 2% threshold. belgium, for example, is onlyjust over i%. same can be said of spain, italy, i.5%. for all of the talk about europe getting serious about its own security, how can you, as one head of government in europe, tell me that the public should take seriously these new words of yours? i don't want to talk about the other countries. what i can say is that, last year we had almost 1.9... it was 1.8 something. for this year we have already 2%. for the next year we have over 2%. and these are notjust money. i mean, these are investments that are planned already, that are ordered.

so we are doing this. it's not about some intentions. this is something that is already ongoing. so from this viewpoint, we have satisfied these expectations. and it is not because someone asked us this, because we understand that we need to defend ourselves better. when you listen to donald trump's words, when you look at the republicans currently continuing to block $60 billion worth of proposed new assistance to ukraine that the biden administration simply cannot get through the us congress, when you look at all of that, do you feel that europe has to move away from a reliance on the protection and defence support of the united states and get serious about self—reliance when it comes to defence and security? i will not go that far. what i am sure is that europe should do more, should increase the spending, should increase the integration

between the forces to be better prepared for whatever can come. on the other hand, we have to do everything possible to work together with the united states, with the other allies, because, together, we are much stronger than separated. and i'm sure the politicians in the united states also understand this, because united we are strong. well, you say that, but what evidence do you have that the united states is, going forward, going to continue to want to protect europe in the way it has in the past? let me put it this way. first, the united states have some reason to say that the european countries should do more about their defence capabilities. so in some way in europe, there was the sense that the war is not around, its not coming, so i think this was the main reason that there was a delay in understanding that there is a serious threat.

and this threat should be faced with capabilities that are much better than we had several years ago. but the most important reason is that i think the politicians in the united states understand that protecting europe is protecting the democracy in the world. it is the same sense that we have now that ukrainians are not fighting only for their country. of course they do this, but also they fight for the future of democracy in europe. so if we are together, there is not any chance that russia can suppress the democracy in europe. but if we are separated between ourselves in europe, with the united states, of course we will be weak and this will be a problem for everyone, not only for the european countries. that's a powerful phrase of yours, fighting for the future of democracy in europe. isn't the truth in bulgaria that democracy right now looks pretty weak?

you have got a profound list of governance problems, corruption problems, institutional problems. i mean, you sit there as prime minister, but your whole political system is deeply fragile. i believe i'm right in saying you've had five elections over the last three years. no government looks that it's going to last any length of time. you're about to switch from being prime minister to allow one of your coalition partners to take over. there's a huge row about whatjob you're going to get after you step away from the premiership. bulgarian politics, farfrom being a sign of strong democracy, is a sign of weak democracy. i would not agree entirely with this. so there is some truth, but not very deep. in reality the fact that we had these elections and after these elections, we have a government with a high majority, shows that the democracy is alive here. and i can assure you that there is no any intention to break this government in the next months or even years. we discuss how we will have a full term, although we created a very

complex support of this government. but this doesn't mean that the... but mr prime minister, sorry to interrupt, but the woman who was supposed to take over from you as pm doesn't want you to take herjob as foreign minister. if she refuses, and her party refuse to allow you to be foreign minister, will the coalition break up or not? i don't think so. i think there was a kind of drama that was created by some other participants in this political show, if you like, because i had quite constructive discussions with my deputy prime minister that is supposed to become a prime minister after a month from now. so this is a normal part of the negotiations. actually, the fact that we are in such a constructive negotiation process shows that the democracy is working here. so i would not agree that this is a sign of weakness. it is the opposite. the fact that we made this government initially under

different conditions. after that, we changed the constitution based on this majority, which is two—thirds of majority in the parliament. we made very significant changes in thejudicial system. all these are efforts that show that there is a stable ground for this government to continue further in the future. but you are fundamentally, if i may say so, a fundamentally divided society, divided on key issues, which bring us back to the coherence and the strength of europe at a time of great challenge, for example, on whether bulgaria should take the euro. it seems half the population is adamantly opposed to signing up to the euro and losing your own currency. when it comes even to getting bulgaria into the free movement schengen area inside the european union, you've claimed that the government of austria, for example, is holding bulgaria hostage.

so on a whole series of key issues between you and the european union, you're out of sync with brussels. no, i don't think we have a problem with brussels or with the european union. yes, in the society there is a division, as there is a division in many other societies, and i don't know a country now that is not excited in by the propaganda, by some conspiracy theory. so bulgaria is not an exception here. what is the fact that, even based on these circumstances, we have a very significant majority, as i said, more than two—thirds, to make all the important decisions in the pro—european development of bulgaria, because we actually are doing quite well with respect to the euro. from the fourth criteria, we have excellent scores for three of them. the only problem is with the inflation, which is relatively high, but again, one of the lowest in eastern europe.

so it doesn't look so grim as it might appearfrom the discussions in the media. this majority gives us, not only the hope, it gives us the plan that we have to realise to make our progress into the european direction in the next months and years. all right. we have to end there. but prime minister nikolai denkov, i thank you very much indeed forjoining me from sofia. thank you. hello there. this mild spell of weather is set

to continue for the next few days, but things will be turning a lot more unsettled next couple of days. we're looking at some deeper areas of low pressure to bring wet and windy spells of weather to our shores. and with the ground already pretty saturated, any more rain falling on the saturated ground could lead to some localised flooding issues. from now, up until around thursday, but by thursday onwards, things are set to turn cold as we pick up chilly arctic air on a west northwesterly breeze. more on that in just a moment. wednesday, though, looks unsettled. a fairly deep area of low pressure sweeping across the country will bring windy weather with coastal gales around irish sea and towards northern and eastern parts of scotland. the rain should tend to clear off into the north sea into the afternoon. it brightens up a few showers running into western areas, but a bit of a hang back for eastern england if it could stay quite grey and damp all day, 11 to 13 degrees again, well above where we should be for the time of year. that area of low pressure clears away. another one develops and moves across the country for thursday, particularly wet, i think

through central and southern parts of the uk. but as it does clear away later on thursday, this is where we start to see the colder air push down from the northwest. so really messy picture for thursday. some of the rain could be quite heavy for parts of england and wales, central and eastern scotland. it will eventually clear off into the north sea, brightens up a little bit, but you'll notice the showers beginning to turn wintry over the hills across northern and western areas as temperatures begin to fall, five to nine degrees will be the high on thursday. that area of low pressure clears away into friday. we're in a run of west northwest that he wins. we've still got the cold air mass around. so these showers will have a wintry flavour to them across northern and western hills in particular. there will be quite a bit of sunshine around though, particularly through central

and eastern parts, both scotland and england. so some areas staying dry altogether, but the showers will be rattling into western areas. some of them could be heavy, some hail and some snow pellets perhaps across some northern and western areas. and temperatures, again, eight to 9, maybe ten degrees in the warmest spots across the southeast. now into saturday, it looks like low pressure will keep away from the west of the uk. so here, a bit breezier closer to that area of low pressure out in the atlantic, i think under a ridge of high pressure in many places will stay dry with some sunshine. there may be still the odd shower around after a cold start with that cold air, those showers will continue to have a wintry element to them. temperatures i think for most in single digits. and then another area of low pressure at the moment looks to slide just to southwards to the west of the uk. that could throw up some clouds in northern ireland, maybe wales, south west, england, some spots of rain here i think for most variable cloud, lots of sunshine around and a few showers around. and again, because we're in the colder air mass, it's going to be another chilly day after a cold start with an early frost. and some of these showers, again, have a wintry flavour to them. temperatures eight to ten degrees. and then beyond then

beyond into the following week, it looks like, although high pressure sticks close by to the southwest, i think low pressure will dominate the scene moving down from the northwest. so again, we're staying on the colder side of the jet and it's likely we'll see spells of wet and windy weather at times. temperatures mayjust lift a degree or so across southern areas, and i think it generally stays on the cooler side further north, these sorts of values actually closer to the seasonal norm. but stay tuned for any changes.

welcome to newsday, reporting live from singapore, i'm steve lai. the headlines... after days of negotiations two major political parties in pakistan say they've agreed to form a coalition government. the us again vetoes a draught un security council resolution, blocking a demand for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in gaza. plus — why south korean doctors are striking over plans to introduce more trained physicians into the system. in developing news from pakistan — in a late night press conference, two major political parties say