ukrainian forces remain determined to repel the russian military, despite dwindling supplies and wavering international aid commitments. we'll look at the state of play on the battlefield, the impact on ukrainians, and the country's prospects for victory. i'm sumi somaskanda. welcome to this bbc news special program marking the 2—year anniversary of russia's war in ukraine. over the course of the war, ukraine and russia have each suffered huge loss of life on the battlefield. and now kyiv�*s counteroffensive is struggling, as the kremlin continues to strike ukrainian cities and make significant territorial gains. this map shows the areas of russian controljust before its forces invaded ukraine on 2a february, 2022. russia held crimea, which it annexed in 2014 — and russian—backed separatists

controlled a small section in south—eastern ukraine. fast forward to today, and most of ukraine's south and east are now occupied by russian forces. russian losses are mounting, however, especially in the black sea. the two—year anniversary comes just days after ukraine suffered a major defeat — retreating from avdiivka and conceding the key eastern town to russian troops. ukrainian forces are running low on ammunition and artillery, as a multibillion—dollar us funding package remains tied up due to congressional infighting. but resolve remains strong. our correspondent andrew harding returned to the east of the country. he's been following the story of one ukrainian soldier, a medic working on the front line, who he first met at the start of the conflict. two years of war, seen through the struggles of one ukrainian doctor. this was the first time we met 0leg kravchenko back in 2022 in a besieged town called lysychansk. 0leg had justjoined ukraine's

army as a volunteer medic. look here. he drove us to his unit near the front lines. it's the same from russian. bomb. in those early days, a smiling 0leg was full of confidence. it's my country. but the russians are pushing now. yes! bombing a lot. i hope maybe one and a half months, and we will shoot every... every russian. you'll push them out? yes. so you think you're winning this? yes, yes. but within weeks, the russians had destroyed and captured lysychansk. nice to meet you. it would be a year before we met 0leg again. his medical team was now working in another frontline town, bakhmut. lots of casualties from ukraine's struggling cou nteroffe nsive. the dangers growing.

i am still live. you're still alive, yes. alive, yes. but it's been a difficult year. very difficult. as if to prove the point... incoming fire. (explosion) you're not worried about your safety? my faith. my faith is... hmm. i don't know. and now, two years into the war, we've come to meet 0leg's team once again. as usual, they're in the thick of it. this time in kupiansk, another furious battle under way. russia now inching forwards. gunfire so the gunfire you can hear is ukrainian troops trying to shoot down a suspected

russian drone. they heard it overhead. we've taken cover under some trees. not sure if they've hit it yet. the ukrainians have found a new russian target. but what of oleg? we'd lost touch with him for several months, but now hear news of an attack last october. a russian rocket hit the field hospital he was working in. three medics were killed. but 0leg survived, his leg badly mangled. my friend died. sighs. it's difficult. difficult for me, and my mind is changed after that. when we first met in lysychansk, you were hopeful that ukraine could win. when we met in bakhmut, you were tired and worried. laughs. very tired. now, how do you feel about the war?

can ukraine win? um, yes. of course, i hope. but i think it's war. we will be long. a long war, then. medal of honour. it's from zelensky. and for 0leg, medals and an early retirement after two years that have transformed every life in this country. andrew harding, bbc news, eastern ukraine. earlier, i spoke to eugene vindman. he served as deputy legal advisor for the national security council and blew the whistle on former presidnet donald trump trying to extort ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky. and bradley bowman, who served as a national security advisor to members of the senate armed services and foreign relations committees. great to have you both with us. i will start with you, eugene.

we heard a soldier there saying ukraine can win but this will be a long war, do you agree with that assessment? i do. i've been to ukraine 14 times sincejune 2022 to october last year, on a multinational mission and i'm quite familiar with the country, the terrain, i've been all around, and the ukrainians have enormous motivation and heart, even with the loss of avdiivka this last week they are nowhere near giving up. as zelensky said in the first days, he does not want to evacuate, he needed weapons and that is still what they need to this day. brad, do you agree? can ukraine outlast russia if this is indeed to be a long war? that interview you just aired really demonstrates the extraordinary bravery ukrainians have shown for so long.

we are talking about a two year anniversary, i'd highlight that this is a ten—year anniversary since russia's unprovoked invasion of crimea, and they have shown incredible courage and skill and fortitude in defending their country against this naked aggression, and the only reason ukraine continues to exist as a sovereign entity is the bravery and skill of the ukrainian people, and the weapons the united states and its allies have provided. and i think eugene said it well — they have the will to fight but that need the men's to win it. if we look at the state of the war, the fact that ukraine had to retreat from avdiivka, they are outgunned at the moment because the lack of military aid that has been flowing in. the counteroffensive did not make the gains that were hoped. what do you think led us to this point where ukraine is right now? i give the ukrainians success for repelling the russian invasion in the early weeks of the war in 2022, and kyiv still stands,

and they push back initial gains and they've had incredible success in the black sea, but no doubt the counteroffensive was disappointing, not for the lack of effort on the part of the ukrainians. part of that is the russians are a formidable foe, that are not too good at expeditional warfare but they're quite good at artillery attritional warfare and that is what we've settled into — almost a world war i style war with drones and this— plays into russian advantages. if you deprive one side of ammunition and shells and missiles than big surprise that the invaders will start to meet gains. eugene i want your thoughts on that as well? the russians don't have the strength to have major operational strategic gains. they did what they could at the beginning of the war,

they failed in kharkiv, almost in kyiv and are holding a fraction of the territory they held in the first year of the war. this is a sort of not a frozen conflict, but a conflict where there will be incremental gains. the loss of avdiivka was not an operational strategic defeat for the ukrainians, it was a tactical defeat. the russians are pushing on many different fronts, but they don't have the capability to seize vast spots of terrain. this, right now, this conflict will grind away until the united states and the europeans, frankly, step up and provide the support that ukraine needs. up to this point the ukrainians have been given what they needed not to lose, but not enough to win. that means a great deal more of ammunition is necessary, 31 abrams tanks were transferred and promised, that is enough for a

battalion but not enough for a significant offensive. the f—16s have yet to arrive, so there a great deal more that the west and united states can do to ensure ukraine wins, which is really in the us and west's national security, or security interests. because we don't want russia on nato's doorstep. the question is whether the us and eu are able to do that and brad, if you look at the munich security conference, you had lawmakers there as part of the us delegation and european allies coming together promising more support for ukraine. do you think that will make a difference here in the us in pushing some sort of aid package across the line? at this moment, after we saw the vote in the us senate where you had 70 senators from both

republicans and democrats voting for it and 29 against, 22 republicans supporting the package of this assistance for ukraine, taiwan and israel but it stalled in the house of representatives and the primary reason is because a section of the republican caucus there, and the house speaker. the message i have been saying to my fellow americans is this is not charity, this is a wise investment for us. we've committed about $44 billion in security assistance to ukraine since putin's unprovoked reinvention and that sounds like oh, b, billion, that's a lot — but to put that in perspective that is about 2.7% of what we spent on the pentagon over the same time period. what have we got for that? we are doing body blows in the second leading conventional front and decreasing the likelihood of a war between nato and russia and

helping ukraine continue to exist and demonstrating we are not neutral when it comes to naked aggression and we are sending a positive deterrent to beijing as to whether taiwan aggression can continue against military force. we have about 30 seconds left but a year from now if ukraine does not get substantial military support what you think this war is heading for? i don't think ukrainians will give up in the short run. this is an existential threat to them and european border countries, but it's the baltics or poland who are going to have very difficult time living with russia on the doorstep. if we see russians making advances i can see countries taking unilateral action, and frankly it is basically the republican party, the maga republicans controlled by donald trump that need to make sure that they follow us and western interests and defend our nato allies where we have an article 5 commitment. eugene, brad, good to

have you both on the programme, thank you so much. the war has had a devastating toll on civilians. the un has documented over 10,000 civilians killed, including more than 560 children. but the real number is believed to be much higher. and while ukraine has suffered the most damage and death, increasingly russian towns have been shelled, and hundreds of thousands of men have been drafted into the army. 0n the ukrainian side, an entire generation of men is fighting on the front lines, suffering devastating losses and injuries on the battlefield. earlier i spoke to inna sovsun, a member of ukraine's parliament. her husband is one of those soldiers. we spoke about the front lines and the impact on ukrainians. inna, when we last spoke, the town of avdiivka was perilously close to falling. we have now since seen ukrainian forces having to retreat — was that a direct result of not having enough ammunition

from ukraine's allies? yes, it was the result of delays in supplying ammunition and weapons to the ukrainian side, but also this time was very smartly used by the russians to increase their production of weapons and they have actually not been just waiting for this time to pass and waiting for what happens today to ukraine, they have been using this time to build up their own arsenals, and that led to the fall of avdiivka, just because they had so much more ammunition and they could have taken it over after all. we've seen these awful reports of soldiers leaving avdiivka before the retreat and trying to reach out to members of theirfamily. how has this impacted people, communities in the region? well, it is terrifying to hear about that and understand the experience. i'm saying both as a member of parliament but as a woman whose loved one is on the front

line from day one. i always relate personally to those stories, and i don't even try to imagine the horror of the families who are going through that. i'm lucky, my partner is alive and well, but this is a terrifying experience to live through and that is something that people desperately want to avoid, but it was not our choice to live through this. we just have to make the best of it, and that is why i think the only reaction people can have and the only reaction people tend to publicise in their social media when anything like this happens is donating to volunteer organisations who are fundraising for the army, and that is our best coping mechanism that we have here right now. can i ask you personally, how do you deal with that fear for your loved one on a day—to—day basis now two years into this war? well, i would like to say that

ideal with it calmly, because that does lead to some...it is challenging. it is highly challenging, and it comes and goes but it is terrifying and exhausting. worrying every single day if he's ok or alive, when he does not respond for a longer period of time than usual. it is really difficult to focus on anything else but i have to continue doing my work, and that is my coping mechanism, ijust concentrate on my work and i think i am doing my work in order to save my country but also to save him, as much as possible. it's remarkably brave, we've been looking at how children who have lost parents from this war are dealing, how frontline medics are working, how ukrainian refugees who have left the country are hopeful they can return, how they are coping. how do you begin to describe the impact of two years of war on your country? it led to a country

that is on the one hand exhausted, tired, frustrated with a lack of understanding of the difficulties we are facing by the rest of the world. but i also think it made my country stronger and more committed to keeping our country as an independent state. i think that sense of common goal, unity, is something that is the only good side effect of this terrible war. that is something that has definitely been a huge change compared to where we have been before. can i ask you about that strength, the strength and resilience of the ukrainian people is really something that so many people have highlighted as so remarkable in the conflict. what do you think drives that resilience? well, probably first of all we don't have a choice. it's an extensional war for us — if we stop fighting we cease to exist.

if we stop fighting, putin's generals will be here in kyiv and will destroy everything we have built here, everything we believe in. so we cannot allow this to happen. but also, we are fighting against great injustice and i think when you are fighting against great injustice that also gives you strength. it is so unjust what he is doing to us, what russian state is doing to us, that you have to fight back. i think anyone can relate because anyone who's dealt with any sort of injustice in their life, ours is so great and terrifying. we have to fight back because we should not allow for things to happen so we have to back. thank you so much again forjoining us and we hope you and yourfamily remain safe. thank you. ukraine's western allies have urged the world

to continue their support of kyiv at a meeting of the united nations security council in new york. since russia's invasion, military assistance and funding has been significantly stepped up. in the past few weeks, european union leaders agreed to extend 50 billion euros — $54 billion — in aid to ukraine. germany tops the list of eu donors. but it's the united states that has provided the most assistance by far. that figure stands at $44.9 billion. and the uk has pledged almost £12 billion in overall support to ukraine since february 2022. western countries also have tried to squeeze the russian economy over the past two years. by by freezing the assets of kremlin associates and businesses. on friday, the us and eu imposed more than 500 new sanctions on russian individuals and entities — citing the invasion of ukraine and the recent death of russian opposition leader alexei navalny. the us imposed sanctions on three government officials involved in navalny�*s imprisonment. nearly 100 firms and individuals will face restrictions on exports.

russia's main payment system, mir, is targeted in the fresh measures. additionally, companies involved in powering russia's war effort, its energy production, and its cooperation with iran on drone technology will also be hit. the penalties go beyond russia's borders, as people in china, the united arab emirates, vietnam and liechtenstein have also been sanctioned. they're accused of being connected to businesses that send materials to russia's military. for more on the sanctions i spoke earlier with steven pifer, former ambassador to ukraine, who is now a senior fellow at the brookings institution. ijust want i just want to start by getting your take on this new package of sanctions the white house has unveiled. it of sanctions the white house has unveiled.— has unveiled. it is a broad package _ has unveiled. it is a broad package of— has unveiled. it is a broad package of sanctions - has unveiled. it is a broad package of sanctions and | has unveiled. it is a broadl package of sanctions and it targets notjust individuals but entities. what is of interest to me is it targets entities in third countries, in turkey, in china, in vietnam, and that may be an effort to try to close down third countries which are serving as

conduits to move american products into russia. a real question is are these sanctions enforced, the russians will look to create loopholes, but can they make those sanctions in fact be as tight as possible so they have a real impact. do ou so they have a real impact. do you think _ so they have a real impact. do you think that will be the case, that these sanctions would have an impact? i think they can- _ would have an impact? i think they can. sanctions _ would have an impact? i think they can. sanctions over - would have an impact? i think they can. sanctions over the l they can. sanctions over the two last years have had an impact. they haven't had as much impact as the west had hoped because the russians have found ways to get stuff in. so for example, you look at some of the countries like kazakhstan are importing many more computer chips from the us, my suspicion is a lot of thatis us, my suspicion is a lot of that is going into russia. and you close those loopholes which would then have the sanctions having an even greater impact. we spoke earlier to a former adviser to president zelensky who said the best sanctions are not medium to long—term measures which he thinks this package would amount to, but rather helping ukraine on the

battlefield, and he said "i think that has more effect on the desire to make peace than any sanctions whatsoever". you agree that assessment?- agree that assessment? yeah, the best response _ agree that assessment? yeah, the best response from - agree that assessment? yeah, the best response from the - agree that assessment? yeah, the best response from the usj the best response from the us would be to have congress, the house of representatives approved the $60 billion in assets to ukraine so we can restart the flow of american arms and ammunition to the ukrainian military. do arms and ammunition to the ukrainian military.— ukrainian military. do you thinkthat _ ukrainian military. do you think that is _ ukrainian military. do you think that is already - ukrainian military. do you| think that is already having ukrainian military. do you i think that is already having a direct impact on what we are seeing on the ground in ukraine whether war has essentially ground to a standstill? yeah, it has had _ ground to a standstill? yeah, it has had an _ ground to a standstill? yeah, it has had an impact. - ground to a standstill? yeah, it has had an impact. the - ground to a standstill? yeah, | it has had an impact. the last american assistance package was announced in december, there has been no more money since then. use all reports for example, some units in avdiivka were reporting that full every sheu were reporting that full every shell they fired, the russians were firing ten. the ukrainians have had to conserve ammunition because they don't know when the american flow will start back up so the reluctance of the republicans in congress to

move forward on that package is having a real impact on the battlefield in ukraine. what about where _ battlefield in ukraine. what about where all— battlefield in ukraine. what about where all this - battlefield in ukraine. what about where all this leaves | about where all this leaves vladimir putin? no sanctions until this point have seemed to cause him to waver from until this point have seemed to cause him to waverfrom his position, certainly from his ongoing war on ukraine, he seems to be emboldened by the fact that western allies are now slowing down with their military support to ukraine. so where do you see him standing at this point, two years into the wall?— at this point, two years into the wall? my guess is this a burden is — the wall? my guess is this a burden is more _ the wall? my guess is this a burden is more confident i the wall? my guess is this a i burden is more confident now than he was, say, a year ago, but i also think in the west there is something of an narrative that ukraine is losing and certainly ukraine is now on the defensive but if you look at the metric of how much ground russia has occupied, russia in february of 2024 occupies little more territory of ukraine than it occupied in february of 2023, and much less thanit february of 2023, and much less than it occupied in the spring of 2022. also, the losses to russia, putin i think is

determined to proceed with this war because he sees his political future is linked to it. but there have been 304,000 russian casualties, destruction of russian equipment, there have been economic impacts that have been economic impacts that have slowed the advancement, and now you have nato enlarging with finland and sweden, and much more energised. those are economic, geopolitical losses for putin as a result of this blunder he launched two years ago. pat blunder he launched two years auo. �* blunder he launched two years am, �* blunder he launched two years an, �* blunder he launched two years ao. ~ , ago. at the same time we see the russians _ ago. at the same time we see the russians at _ ago. at the same time we see the russians at the _ ago. at the same time we see the russians at the moment l ago. at the same time we see l the russians at the moment on the russians at the moment on the battlefield in ukraine having made some advances in the south on the east of the country. what do you think it would take right now for ukraine to be able to turn the tide? i ukraine to be able to turn the tide? ~ ~ ., , , tide? i think ukraine basically needs to get _ tide? i think ukraine basically needs to get more _ tide? i think ukraine basically needs to get more weapons, | tide? i think ukraine basically l needs to get more weapons, so it can stabilise the defensive line and then as they hold the defensive line, work towards probably in the second half of

the year developing some kind of offensive capability and work out what kind of counteroffensive might work in a more productive way than they tried last summer. it also, in order to win russia has to win, it has to take more territory. right now ukraine is winning by not losing. and i think time works on the ukrainian' side in that sense, as long as the russians are prepared to provide the wherewithal —— the us is prepared to provide the arms to ukraine to continue this fight. and for more on the two—year anniversary of the war in ukraine, you can head to our website. you'll see reporting there from our correspondents in both russia and ukraine. that is a special programme at this hour. thank you for watching. stay with us here on bbc news.

hello there. friday was a day of sunshine and showers, some of the showers heavy with some hail mixed in, and with colder air moving in across the country, we saw a bit of snow return to the top of the cumbrian fells. this is the top of helvellyn, snow—covered there, in cumbria. now, so far this february, it has been a bit of a wash—out across england and wales. cardiff and coventry have had well over double the average rainfall so far this month. parts of east anglia, houghton hall in norfolk had three times the average rainfall, and there's more to come as well. now, on the satellite picture, all of this white speckled cloud you can see to the north and west of the uk is shower cloud, and there are loads of those, so we are looking at more showers working in. and over the next few hours, by and large, the showers are most likely to be across northern and western scotland, a few for the north and west of northern ireland, one or two for wales and the southwest of england but otherwise, particularly across inland areas, we'll have clear spells to take us into saturday morning and a cold start to the day with some frost or maybe one

or two icy stretches. should be a fine if somewhat chilly start to the day, then, on saturday, but it is another day where we'll see showers pop up. some of those across northern scotland, some of the heaviest ones probably across southern areas of england and southern and western wales with a real threat of seeing some hail and a bit of thunder mixed in. still, where the sunshine comes out, temperatures of around 8—10 degrees to be expected — that's about average at this time of the year. for sunday, there'll be further showers across northern scotland but an area of low pressure looks set to run in across northern france. now, this could bring a spell of rain and windier weather to southern counties of england and southern wales, or it could be that the rain just holds a bit further south out in the english channel. so, that's the big zone of uncertainty, really, as we head through sunday but still, the bulk of the uk having a fairamount of sunshine and temperatures, still about 8—10. now, if we do see that rain in the south, could still be affecting east anglia and south east england into monday with quite breezy weather conditions but further north, for northern ireland and scotland, a good part of northern england and wales will be underneath

the influence of this ridge of high pressure and so, the weather should be drier with more in the way of sunshine. after a cold and locally frosty start to the day, our temperatures not really changing that much day to day — highs of again around 8—10 degrees or so. and then, deeper into the new working week, it stays unsettled, temperatures often near double figures, but there will be rain at times.

hey, i'm dylan with the catch—up. tonight: a world war ii bomb in plymouth. mansplaining goes viral. and a panda party. but first, shamima begum, the 24—year—old who travelled to syria to join the islamic state group when she was 15, has been told by a top court that she can't come back to the uk. she had appealed the government's decision from back in 2019 that strips her of her british citizenship on the grounds of national security. her lawyers say they won't stop fighting until she's home. and if you want to hear more on this story, then check out the shamima begum story podcast on the bbc sounds app. some other stories now. an unexploded world war ii bomb that was found in plymouth has been put in the sea to be detonated. thousands of people were evacuated as the bomb was taken through the city. the 500kg device was transported by the military after it was found buried in a garden on tuesday.