the lives of millions. wherever you'rejoining me from around the world, once again a big hello and a warm welcome to the show. you know, for 75 years, the world has been using global trade to grow richer. it's worked for many but not for all, so is it a system that has finally run out of steam? with political divisions everywhere from america to europe, from china to india, it's become more difficult to break down the barriers that get in the way of us buying and selling stuff to different parts of the world. it's two years since the world trade organization brought trade ministers from all over the globe together in geneva. this year, that gathering is happening in abu dhabi and is known as mc13 and the goal? it's simple, it's to update the rules on global trade. i tell you what, this is why it matters.

in 2022, just over $32 trillion worth of goods of services were sold between different countries, which was worth about a third of the entire global economy. nearly 80% of that was goods rather than services. the biggest sellers? well, they include chemicals, office and telecoms equipment and stuff for the car industry. and the growth in all of that global trade over the last a0 years or so has led to a big fall in the amount of people living in extreme poverty, with the biggest difference coming from the countries that have seen the biggest increases in trade. but there were more than 3500 new restrictions imposed on global trade just last year as countries continue to disagree about the rules for how stuff is bought and sold. and at a time when the high cost of borrowing and inflation are already causing economic misery, there are concerns that those limits on global trade are holding back the global economy. let's get an explanation from a leading expert on global trade.

professor simon evan, thanks for your time and let's start with global trade 101. simon, can you please explain what these trade restrictions are and why do countries impose them? trade restrictions include taxes on imports, physical limits on the number of goods being imported and subsidies to poorly manage local firms who can't handle international competition. the reasons for putting them in place are often to protect local jobs, at least temporarily, and often to stop dumped and subsidised imports coming into countries. simon, what's the trend with these restrictions on the rise and what impact are they having on the global economy? we are in the fifth year of a frenzy of trade policy activism. trade restrictions doubled in the pandemic and then have risen, further plateauing in 2022, 2023. the effects of these trade restrictions are twofold. first, they make it very hard for businesses to plan,

their overseas expansion strategies and their investments, and that's a drag on the world economy. secondly, taxes on imports of goods that you and i buy push—up our cost of living and that's a major issue in the recent years. and for the wto meeting in abu dhabi, some of the major issues, they include tackling these subsidies that critics say are threatening the world's fish stocks, extending a ban on tariffs or import taxes for online commerce, and reforming the wto's paralyse system for resolving disputes between one country and another. and there is another major reason why global trade is forcing its way back on the agenda. that is the united states and the upcoming election in the world's biggest economy. which is likely to see a rematch betweenjoe biden and donald trump. when he was us president, donald trump, he started a trade war with china because of what he said were unfair trade practices. it led to tariffs on most of the stuff that the world's two biggest economies sell each other and he was recently asked if his re—election would lead to another trade war.

china came in, they were going to destroy our steel industry and i put tariffs, big tariffs, 50%, 100%, but 50% for the most part. it stopped it. i have steel people that every time they see me they start to cry, they hug me, they say, you saved our industry. but now we're letting it go. now the washington post is saying that you're talking about 60% tariffs on chinese goods. is that on the cards? no, i would say maybe it's going to be more than that. but it is fair to say that the biden administration has kept all of trump's tariffs in place. in fact, it's added its own trade restrictions, although china wants them all scrapped. translation: safeguarding the healthy and stay stable l development of china's economic and trade relations is in the fundamental interests of both countries and peoples, and it is also conducive to global economic growth. and it's not just and it's notjust china and the us that have their differences. the world trade organization works on a

consensus basis, meaning that if anything is to be achieved in abu dhabi, all members need to agree. i decided to catch up with the man in charge of the european union's trade policy, which is the world's biggest trading bloc in terms of its number of consumers. valdis dombrovskis, a pleasure having you on the show. just how important is the world trade organization to you, the european union? as you know, many see it as an institution that is failing to stay relevant and uphold the rules of global trading in what does feel like a world that is more about power than rules.— about power than rules. that's exactly the _ about power than rules. that's exactly the reason _ about power than rules. that's exactly the reason why - about power than rules. that's exactly the reason why the - about power than rules. that's. exactly the reason why the wto about power than rules. that's - exactly the reason why the wto is even more relevant than before. because indeed we see geopolitical tensions, we see risks of economic fragmentation, so we need to preserve rules —based, multilateral trading system and that's what the

wto is all about. it's actually most favoured nation principle which is very much behind resilience of global trade despite geopolitical tensions we are facing right now. but that said, there is a lot of people saying the differences between the countries are just too big and varied for much to be achieved at this meeting. if you could walk away with one thing that you wanted, what would that be and why? iii you wanted, what would that be and wh ? , ., , ., , why? if everyone is willing to be constructive _ why? if everyone is willing to be constructive and _ why? if everyone is willing to be constructive and take _ why? if everyone is willing to be constructive and take a - why? if everyone is willing to be constructive and take a step - why? if everyone is willing to be - constructive and take a step towards each other, it is possible to achieve a positive result and this is desperate as we are entering this ministerial from the is desperate as we are entering this ministerialfrom the eu side. this point of wt0 reform is important and the function of the dispute settlement system, because global rules are only as effective as they

are effectively enforced. but since there are other important deliverables in all the world, it's important we make progress on the e—commerce work programme and e—commerce work programme and e—commerce moratorium, meaning there are now customs duties or electronic transmissions. we hopefully can achieve that phase two agreements on subsidies to avoid overfishing, to avoid illegal, unregulated fishing and we need also meaningful outcome on agriculture. also with food security and limit.— on agriculture. also with food security and limit. let's talk about food and growing _ security and limit. let's talk about food and growing it _ security and limit. let's talk about food and growing it in _ security and limit. let's talk about food and growing it in particular, i food and growing it in particular, because agricultural subsidies, which are basically government payments to farmers, they are an important item on the agenda when food prices continue to rise. but you want some of that cut, why is that? i'm thinking, doesn't that

push up the food prices when people are already struggling with the cost of living? are already struggling with the cost of livin: ? , ., ., ., of living? there is a range of agricultural _ of living? there is a range of agricultural subsidies - of living? there is a range of agricultural subsidies which l of living? there is a range of. agricultural subsidies which are actually allowed under the wto rules. these are called green box. the key there is that though subsidies are not trade distorting. in fact, the eu was undertaking major reform of a common agricultural policy to bring its subsidy policy in line with the wto rules but clearly, in recent years, also having seen russia's weaponisation of food supplies and spike in food prices we saw in 2022 after russia's invasion of ukraine, those food security questions also come in very prominently and we need to ensure also the wto is contributing to the global food security. {lift contributing to the global food securi . ' . ~ ., security. off the back of the pandemic. _ security. off the back of the pandemic, the _ security. off the back of the pandemic, the war - security. off the back of the pandemic, the war in - security. off the back of the i pandemic, the war in ukraine, ongoing differences with china, we know the eu has been working on

plans to bolster its economic security and that means more security and that means more security checks on things like investments both into and out of the eu, you are lessening your reliance on china, certainly when it comes to making electric cars, wind turbines and computer chips. the question is, how do you square those protections with the eu's stated aim of open trade with the rest of the world? what we are seeing globally, there is a certain paradigms shift from efficiency based model on supply chains to resilience based model, but our economic security strategy is clear, that our aim is to preserve eu's openness to the world, we are a global trading superpower and want to stay this way. the eu is striving from our openness so we need to be targeted and precise in our economic security strategy, to

precisely identify risks, so it's important to make sure that economic security strategy, not only in the eu but around the world, this work on economic security does not become a pretext for protectionism. idietitian on economic security does not become a pretext for protectionism.— a pretext for protectionism. when it comes to the _ a pretext for protectionism. when it comes to the eu's _ a pretext for protectionism. when it comes to the eu's economic - a pretext for protectionism. when it. comes to the eu's economic security, who is it that you are most worried about? is it china?— about? is it china? when we were draftin: about? is it china? when we were drafting our— about? is it china? when we were drafting our strategy, _ about? is it china? when we were drafting our strategy, it _ about? is it china? when we were drafting our strategy, it is - about? is it china? when we were drafting our strategy, it is not - about? is it china? when we were drafting our strategy, it is not a i drafting our strategy, it is not a strategy against one other country. it's a strategy to address risks of certain technologies getting into hands of live actors.— hands of live actors. given everything _ hands of live actors. given everything you _ hands of live actors. given everything you have - hands of live actors. given everything you have said, | hands of live actors. given . everything you have said, you hands of live actors. given - everything you have said, you look at china and people go, china can be very damaging to european companies and causing economic damage, because beijing has got it subsidies, it limits access to the chinese market, its got other unfair trade it's got other unfair trade practices, all of that are damaging to the eu economy.— to the eu economy. yes, that's actually the _ to the eu economy. yes, that's actually the important - to the eu economy. yes, that's

actually the important point. i to the eu economy. yes, that'sl actually the important point. we to the eu economy. yes, that's - actually the important point. we are making a distinction between level playing field issues, fair competition issues, which are much broader, and economic security which is much more narrowly defined. on those broader level playing field issues, obviously we have quite a few concerns related to china. in 2022, the eu had a trade deficit of almost 400 billion euros with china and the fact remains that the eu market is more open to chinese companies and chinese goods then china's market is to the eu. in engagements with our chinese counterparts, we are paying attention to those access market barriers and to ensure a more balanced economic relationship. let's look at the eu �*s trade relations with the us. it is the biggest trade relationship in the world, worth nearly $1 trillion last year and yes, you have your differences which have manifested

into the form of tariffs and yes, they are on pause until the spring of 2025. but with donald trump talking about more us tariffs, before he's even confirmed to be running againstjoe biden, i'm wondering, have the last three years of the biden presidency been a opportunity to build bridges with that crucial ally? irate opportunity to build bridges with that crucial ally?— that crucial ally? we have been workin: that crucial ally? we have been working very — that crucial ally? we have been working very intensively - that crucial ally? we have been working very intensively with i that crucial ally? we have been. working very intensively with the biden administration to build those bridges, also to resolve some of the trade disputes like we managed to park airbus and boeing dispute. so a lot of work has been done and a lot of work is ongoing. of course it's not for us to comment on electoral processes in the us but it's clear we need to be prepared for different eventualities but is also clear the eu and us are strategic allies and it's very important that we keep working together, especially in a

current geopolitical context. but if donald trump _ current geopolitical context. but if donald trump does _ current geopolitical context. but if donald trump does win _ current geopolitical context. but if donald trump does win the - current geopolitical context. but if donald trump does win the us presidency, do you believe that will be damaging to not only the eu economy but the global economy? the sianals economy but the global economy? tue: signals we economy but the global economy? tte: signals we are economy but the global economy? "tt2 signals we are hearing economy but the global economy? tt2 signals we are hearing are concerning, this is as much as i can say at this stage.— say at this stage. valdis dombrovskis, _ say at this stage. valdis dombrovskis, europeanj say at this stage. valdis _ dombrovskis, european commissioner to trade, a pleasure having you on the show. we will talk to you soon. that's the view from europe but what about the view from the world's biggest economy, the united states? in a statement, president biden's trade representative told us that for the wto to remain relevant and effective, it must now evolve into an institution that can better reflect the interests of working people and address today's emerging challenges. such as supply chain resilience, the climate crisis, nonmarket policies and practices and widening inequality. mc 13 is an

important milestone for us to take stock of where we are and identify areas where further improvements are needed, but it is not a destination. she went on to say the united states is prioritising three pillars of reform, transparency, rebuilding the wto's ability to negotiate rules for the challenges we face and dispute settlement reform. so in a world that seems increasingly divided, whether because of the wars in ukraine or the middle east, all because of trade policies designed to favour one group over another, how does the world to make any progress? that is something i wanted to discuss with the woman running this major gathering in abu dhabi. she is the director general of the world trade organization. dr ngozi okojo—iweala, a real pleasure as always having you on the show. if we look at the wider state of the global economy, we got interest rates at their highest in many years, inflation continues to push

up years, inflation continues to push up prices, the uk and japan in recession, germany likely to follow. how important is it that your members actually make some tangible progress in making trade easier so that prices can come down for consumers all around the world? thank you. good to see you as always. ourfocus is on people. i've always. ourfocus is on people. i've always said that at the wto we should focus on what the multilateral trading system can do for people and as you know, for gdp growth, trade feeds in to gdp growth and vice versa. i think progress in trade is really important and our members understand this. they understand it's important to make progress on issues related to fisheries because we are dealing not only with sustainability of our oceans, but with improving the livelihoods of 260 million fishermen and women around the world, who depend on this. they understand that

they can progress on digital trade will be important. so the atmosphere is positive and therefore i think members are poised to deliver. that being said, i had to be realistic. you never know how the negotiations will go, the dynamics can become quite tough, so i don't want to prejudge or predict too much where we are going to come out but i'm hoping for the best. figs we are going to come out but i'm hoping for the best.— we are going to come out but i'm hoping for the best. as you know, one of the — hoping for the best. as you know, one of the big _ hoping for the best. as you know, one of the big issues _ hoping for the best. as you know, one of the big issues with - hoping for the best. as you know, one of the big issues with global l one of the big issues with global trade at the moment are the ongoing problems in the red sea, all those commercial ships that simply make global trade possible are under attack from the houthis. there is no sign of a solution so i have to ask you, how concerned are you about the impact of that on the global economy?— impact of that on the global econom ? ., ., . ., economy? for now the impact of the red sea difficulties _ economy? for now the impact of the red sea difficulties is _ economy? for now the impact of the red sea difficulties is relatively - red sea difficulties is relatively moderate. prices have gone up but not as much as they did during the

pandemic. i think that businesses have rejigged their supply chains. you have more inventory for example to help this. that being said, we are concerned that if the difficulties in the red sea and the suez canal are prolonged, you could see for instance after a couple of years, trade between europe and east asia and southeast asia declined by about 15%. some workers been done on this that show those numbers. that’s this that show those numbers. that's had a major — this that show those numbers. that's had a major impact _ this that show those numbers. that's had a major impact on _ this that show those numbers. that's had a major impact on the _ this that show those numbers. that's had a major impact on the global economy. had a major impact on the global econom . ., , , had a major impact on the global econom . . , , .,, economy. that is why we hope the difficulties in _ economy. that is why we hope the difficulties in the _ economy. that is why we hope the difficulties in the red _ economy. that is why we hope the difficulties in the red sea - economy. that is why we hope the difficulties in the red sea will - economy. that is why we hope the difficulties in the red sea will be l difficulties in the red sea will be taken care of and we will not see an expansion of the conflict but rather we would see a diminution of it. let me touch on one hot topic on the table at abu dhabi, e—commerce which covers everything from streaming

services to cloud computing. it is the fastest—growing part of global trade and up until now there has been disagreement that there are no tariffs on one of those things, but that's due to expire this year. i'm wondering, what are the dangers if an extension isn't agreed? how will affect consumers? the an extension isn't agreed? how will affect consumers?— an extension isn't agreed? how will affect consumers? the moratorium on customs duties _ affect consumers? the moratorium on customs duties on _ affect consumers? the moratorium on customs duties on electronic - customs duties on electronic transmissions has been extended at the wto for the past 20 years and there is research to make them permanent or at the very least extend them but there are some members who think differently about this. so far the majority of members are supporting this extension because they believe that it is really important to macromedia and small enterprises, especially as trade becomes more digital, more women and young people are trading through digital means. this moratorium becomes important to them but we must remember there are other members who feel that this impacts

on their revenue as trade becomes more digital if you don't collect revenue on those, you also lose on a fiscal site. revenue on those, you also lose on a fiscalsite. i'm hoping ministers will make the appropriate decision that will be helpful to the world economy. that will be helpful to the world econom . ., ., that will be helpful to the world econom. ., ., , , , that will be helpful to the world econom. ., ., , , economy. you need a consensus on that and l'm _ economy. you need a consensus on that and i'm wondering, _ economy. you need a consensus on that and i'm wondering, how- economy. you need a consensus on that and i'm wondering, how do - economy. you need a consensus on | that and i'm wondering, how do you get it given the wto system requires all 164 members to back and agree any changes? some people might even ask, isn't it time the wto system changes to become a majority based system? fin changes to become a ma'ority based s stem? ., ., ., , , system? on the moratorium, yes, the same thing happened _ system? on the moratorium, yes, the same thing happened in _ system? on the moratorium, yes, the same thing happened in june - system? on the moratorium, yes, the same thing happened in june 2022 - same thing happened injune 2022 under mc 12. we managed to get the installation so let's see how the dynamics will work this time and yes, d consensus system of the wto is always under question but let me say this, perhaps as the duty would

be easier for say this, perhaps as the duty would be easierfor me under say this, perhaps as the duty would be easier for me under that system but i respect this consensus system. why? this is the only economic organisation where the smallest country has the same voice, an equal voice with the largest one. it gives a voice to those who are normally voiceless in the world's economy and that's the unique thing about the wto. i think we need to preserve that. ., ~ wto. i think we need to preserve that. . ,, ., ., ., , that. let me talk about another big to - ic, that. let me talk about another big toic, it's that. let me talk about another big topic, it's fishing, _ that. let me talk about another big topic, it's fishing, hugely _ topic, it's fishing, hugely important to feeding the world but as we know the world's fish stocks are being depleted rapidly by overfishing and there is talk of further cutting the $22 billion of subsidies that have led to that overfishing. can that be achieved and how do you do that whilst also addressing the concerns of some countries about the millions ofjobs that industry supports? taste countries about the millions of “obs that industry supportafi that industry supports? we did the first art that industry supports? we did the first part of — that industry supports? we did the first part of the _ that industry supports? we did the first part of the fisheries _ first part of the fisheries subsidies agreement at our mc 12,

which was to have a crack at curbing those harmful subsidies that lead to illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing of our high seas. the second part of that agreement is on overfishing and overcapacity, as you mentioned. overfishing our oceans, building too many fishing ships that had the wrong kind of gear and dragged through the ocean, how do we stop subsidies that support that? not to talk of the fact that we need to have our ocean sustainable. we have almost over 50% overfishing at this time and this is not good for future generations and i hope we can come to an agreement, that we can really try to curb these harmful subsidies. t really try to curb these harmful subsidies. ., ., really try to curb these harmful subsidies-— really try to curb these harmful subsidies. ., ., ., , ., ., subsidies. i want to ask you about the dispute _ subsidies. i want to ask you about the dispute regulation _ subsidies. i want to ask you about the dispute regulation body, - subsidies. i want to ask you about the dispute regulation body, it's l the dispute regulation body, it's been out of action for more than four years and you have highlighted the progress on this is an absolute key target for the meeting in abu dhabi. let's be frank, some will say

you have been in office for three years now with little progress on this. what has changed given the us which paralysed it in the first place, has only been speaking about incremental progress at this meeting? t incremental progress at this meetin: ? , incremental progress at this meetinr? , ., incremental progress at this meeting?— incremental progress at this meetinr? , ., meeting? i beg to disagree with those who say — meeting? i beg to disagree with those who say that _ meeting? i beg to disagree with those who say that you - meeting? i beg to disagree with those who say that you have - meeting? i beg to disagree with i those who say that you have been meeting? i beg to disagree with - those who say that you have been in office three years and not much has happened. let me say two things. it's not the entire dispute resolution system that has been paralysed, is made up of two tears. the first is the pronounced system and that is working but the second tier, the upper lid bodies, it's true that tier where you can make an appeal is not functioning at the moment. that was why the ministers that mc 12 said we should reform the system and make it fully functional ijy system and make it fully functional by 2024. what i'd like to say is that we are making really good progress on that. let me just also

say one other thing, is not only the us who have complaints about the system. many developing countries felt the system was too complicated, not affordable or accessible to them and what has been done so far is to try to tackle those issues so we are some ways there and i think the work will deliver so far is good progress. will deliver so far is good progress-— will deliver so far is good progress. will deliver so far is good rouress. h . ~ . will deliver so far is good ”roress. �*, . ~' . ,, progress. let's talk about the us and china- _ progress. let's talk about the us and china. the _ progress. let's talk about the us and china. the world's _ progress. let's talk about the us and china. the world's two - progress. let's talk about the us i and china. the world's two biggest economies but it does seem like their trade differences have only grown with new restrictions on technology and investments, as well as more export controls. two countries now have to except there are two sides to the global economy and you just had to pick a side? you and you 'ust had to pick a side? you have and you just had to pick a side? you have noted — and you just had to pick a side? ym. have noted one thing that is happening in the world, the push towards fragmentation of the world trading system. yes, it is true that on certain goods in the technology area, you have more restrictions on

both sides but both sides are talking at the wto and with that kind of approach, we hope things don't degenerate or deteriorate. i'm very hopeful about that. in terms of fragmentation, if the world were to break into two trading blocs, it would cost the world economy dearly to be in the longer term a 5% loss of real global gdp and that is huge. hang on, you don't believe or worry that globalisation and global trade is unravelling? t that globalisation and global trade is unravelling?— is unravelling? i would not say it is unravelling? i would not say it is unravelling, _ is unravelling? i would not say it is unravelling, i— is unravelling? i would not say it is unravelling, i would _ is unravelling? i would not say it is unravelling, i would say, - is unravelling? i would not say it is unravelling, i would say, yes, | is unravelling, i would say, yes, the disruptions and difficulties, but unravelling, no. in certain sexes and subsectors that we begin to see evidence of this fragmentation that you are pointing to. we should be very careful because if this continues, it could do real damage to the world economy and it will do even more damage to

developing countries. dr and it will do even more damage to developing countries.— developing countries. dr ngozi okojo-iweaia. _ developing countries. dr ngozi okojo-iweala, the _ developing countries. dr ngozi okojo-iweala, the big - developing countries. dr ngozi okojo-iweala, the big boss - developing countries. dr ngozi okojo-iweala, the big boss of| developing countries. dr ngozi i okojo-iweala, the big boss of the okojo—iweala, the big boss of the world trade organization, always a pleasure having you on the show. good luck with it and we will talk to you soon. that's it for this week's show. i hope you enjoyed it. you can keep up with the latest on the global economy. you can follow me on x. you can get me a bbc arran. thanks for watching, i'll see you soon, goodbye. hello there. we had fewer showers around on saturday and with clearer skies and light winds it is turning pretty chilly out there, but we've got some more rain to come on sunday. it will come from this area of low pressure, that will tend to slide across towards france and that is where we'll get any mild air heading. we're still going to be in the chillier conditions and we have a more widespread slight frost by early morning. again, the lowest temperatures will be in north—east scotland, minus five or six. mist and fog patches,

too, which will be slow to clear in the morning, but we will see rain developing across south—west england and south wales during sunday morning and that rain develops more widely across the south—east of england during the afternoon. away from here, we're going to find the odd shower cropping up but many places will be dry with some sunshine after the early mist and fog, and again, temperatures around eight or 9 degrees. it's getting windy with the rain in the south and more rain is not good news at all — 15 to 25 centimetres quite widely could lead to further flooding. the rain should clear away from south wales and south—west england on sunday night, but continue in the south—east where it is going to be very windy, strong to gale force winds here. a few showers will get blown in further north from off the north sea, but with more of a stronger north—easterly wind for england and wales, it won't be as cold. frosts early monday in scotland where we've got the clearer skies. a few showers in scotland and northern ireland, shouldn't last too long, the rain slowly creeps away from the far south—east of england and with that north—easterly wind, there will be some sunny spells

for england and wales and maybe the shower around as well. quite windy towards the south—east, particularly in the morning, strong to gale force winds here. the winds ease a bit in the afternoon and again we will see typical temperatures on monday around nine celsius. as one area of low pressure brings some rain in the south of england then moves away, we'll see this brief ridge of high pressure overnight into tuesday morning, so turning chilly in the south, ahead off a weather front that will bring rain down from the north—west this time. rain on tuesday across scotland and northern ireland, followed by sunshine and showers. the rain heading into england and wales. east anglia and the south—east still look like being fine and dry here but turning more cloudy. the rain will peter out as it runs southwards and for many parts of the country, wednesday will be a dry day with some sunshine for a while.

live from washington. this is bbc news

polls have just closed in south carolina's republican primary election. i'm helena humphrey live in charleston — where nikki haley looks likely to lose to donald trump and her home state. alexei navalny�*s body is finally returned to his mother — more than a week after the russian opposition leader died under unexplained circumstances — in an arctic penal colony. and: the us and uk strike 18 locations in yemen — the fourth wave of coalition strikes on houthi targets. hello i'm carl nasman. polls have just closed in south carolina's primary elections — where nikki haley is mounting a long—shot challenge to donald trump — for the republican nomination. so far, mr trump has celebrated landslide wins in other state races — and he could see another win tonight.

ms haley served as south carolina's governor for six