invasion of ukraine, triggering the bloodiest conflict in europe since the second world war. but after 730 days of fighting, who has the upper hand? what is life like in ukraine and russia today, and when will the killing end? the global news podcast and ukrainecast have come together to answer your questions. hello, i'm oliver conway from the global news podcast. i'm vitaly shevchenko, the co—presenter from ukrainecast in the ukrainecast studio. i'm olga robinson from bbc verify, also in the ukrainecast studio. i'm lyse doucet, the bbc's chief international- correspondent and i'm back. in the ukrainian capital, kyiv. and i'm steven rosenberg, the bbc�*s russia editor and i'm in moscow. thank you all forjoining us. we have had lots of questions from listeners to the global podcast, and ukrainecast.

thank you all. we will try to answer as many as we can. hello, i'm derek from london in the uk. is there really a stalemate in ukraine at the moment? this is angela from - auckland in new zealand. could you talk please - about the changes, zelensky's strategy with the departure of zaluzhnyi, the general. in charge of the army? well, lyse, first of all, is there a stalemate on the battlefield or has the tide turned in favour of russia? i will answer the question about the stalemate, and i will partially be answering the second question. it was general zaluzhnyi the last commander in chief who used the words stalemate in an interview and it is said to have angered president zelensky. he felt it was too negative a description of the situation along the front line. president zelensky himself recently went to visit his troops in the east.

he described the situation as extremely difficult. he is saying the russian forces are pressing ahead in at least five directions. and he believes russia is trying to take advantage of delays in the delivery of critical military support, in particular, some $60 billion in military aid that has been held up by political infighting in the us congress. i think ukrainians are waiting to see whether the change in the commander—in—chief will make a difference. president zelensky himself has spoken of a reboot in the military strategy two years on. steve, what is the view in moscow? when you listen to the political chat shows i on state television, _ when you listen to what russian officials are saying, - when you listen to what president putin is saying, i you certainly get the feeling the russians believe - the situation is changing, the tide is turning l

in moscow's favour. the thing is, the russians. are not just watching what is happening on battlefield, | on the front line, they are watching what is happening in the corridors of power, l in europe and in- particular in america. the fact this future us - military assistance to ukraine is stuck in the congress, that is giving, i think, i the kremlin added confidence this could be a turning point. | so, very often when vladimir putin appears on tv now, - he's smiling, he is talking about russia gaining - the initiative and i thinkl the russians are looking ahead with confidence. olga, what can you tell us about how much territory has actually changed hands over this past year? it has been really slow, the progress in fighting on the ground across the front line. we know from the institute for the study of war that according to their estimates, in total, 130,000 square

kilometres of territory changed hands in the first year of the war, that is 2022. that number went down to 900 square kilometres. it is almost like a stalemate, it felt like it for a very long time. but i think now, things, in the past few weeks, things have really been changing a little bit and we can see from the developments, the fall of the town of avdiivka to the russians, it feels like if it were scales and we were looking at scales, the scales looks like it is tipping slightly right now towards russia. but the question is, whether that is a long—term change or whether it is temporary. if we look at who zaluzhnyi was, in the eyes of the public in ukraine, the military, he was almost universally admired, respected, many members of ukraine military saw him as a kindly,

caring father and they felt they were in the same boat as him. the new commander in chief, who is seen very differently, when he was appointed, there were shrieks of dismay and outrage and people remembered that even though he has bags of experience, he has been fighting since the very beginning of russia's invasion ten years ago, he showed himself as a callous commander who doesn't often care about the number of ukrainian soldiers who die. that is at least how he is perceived in ukraine. next, some of the listeners to the global news podcast and ukrainecast have been asking about the impact of the war on civilian populations. my name is dale and i live in scotland. my question is, what

psychological effect has the frequency of air raids had on ukrainian people? my name is frederic and i am from paris. my question is about the efficiency of the economic sanctions on russia and the real effects. steve, you can look at that in just a moment. first, lyse, what does it feel like in ukraine today? i have to say i remember the first weeks of the war, whenever the air raid sirens sounded, everyone immediately went to their bomb shelters, either underground parks, metro stations, basements. whatever they had, everyone knew they had somewhere to hide. but as the months went on and people realised that every time the air raid sirens sounded, it didn't necessarily mean there was going to be a missile slamming into a building or a street nearby. people became much more relaxed about it, they look up

from what they are doing and they get on with it. every so often, they are reminded that you have to take them seriously. there were blistering attacks here in kyiv injanuary, reminding people, even though kyiv at times can feel far away from the worst impact of this war, it still is in moscow's sights. if you are in an area which comes in the more regular attacks, such as the dnipro, it is coming under greater attacks, kherson, we have heard terrible reports today of quite a few attacks today. it depends where you are and what you have lived through. steve. russia's the most sanctioned country in the world now. i remember back two years ago, some economists in the west were predicting that the tsunami of sanctions that western governments were imposing on russia would mean that, a few months later, the russian economy would collapse.

that hasn't happened. recently, the imf revised upwards its growth forecast for russia this year. if you go to the russian supermarkets, for instance, still plenty of food, plenty of goods on the shelf, not the selection there was two years ago but still plenty there. 0k, a lot of the western cars, western washing machines, perhaps no longer available. a lot of chinese goods instead. still sanctions haven't hit the ordinary population in russia to the extent, i think, western governments were assuming. russia has been able to redirect a lot of its oil and gas, i think, to china, india _ having said that, there could problems ahead because it is the military, the military industrial complex which has been keeping the economy running here. the russians are spending a lot of money on the military, how long can that last?

i hear similar stories - from people that i know back in russia, around moscow area. they say, yes, there are no empty shelves in shops. . pretty much everything is available. _ but if you look closer, prices have gone up. i also, some of the people sayl they have noticed you can now get for the same price you used to get basic things, _ you would get less product. the war is having a bigger impact on both countries on those actually doing the fighting. we've got two listeners asking about conscription. my name is arthur and i'm currently based in london. many have speculated after the russian elections in march this year there will no longer be any impediments holding putin back from another round of call—up. if true, what potential effects could that have on the battlefield and domestic politics in russia? this isjeff from germany here. i'd like to hear about the perspective of ukrainian soldiers and their relatives,

particular those of conscripts. are men fleeing occupied territory allowed to leave the country yet? to what extent are civilians being forced into conscription, how are conscientious objectors treated? — steve, why don't you start by telling us about a possible other round of call ups in russia? well, it's possible, but if you go back to the first wave of mobilization in russia, which was, what, september 2022, when the kremlin announced what it called partial mobilization, hundreds of thousands of russian men being called up, that caused a lot of alarm in russian society. all kinds of surveys showed that. the kremlin knows that. so what's been happening in recent months the kremlin has been relying on contract soldiers, throwing lots of money at this to encourage people, to encourage russian men to sign up voluntarily and head off to the front line. and that's been working so far. the authorities say they've managed to hire hundreds of thousands of russian men to do that who are attracted

by the large sums of money. the authorities know that if they decide on another large wave of mobilization, that, again, is going to cause a lot of alarm in russian society and the last thing the authorities here want to do is to destabilize the social situation within the country. and, lyse, where you are isn't there a a bill going through parliament to try to boost conscription? yes, a figure whopping figure of half a million more soldiers need to be called up to fight in this war. the last commander in chief was the first one to use that figure. president zelensky objected, saying, we can find other ways, better rotation of forces. we don't think this is possible. and so there's a heated debate about that mobilization bill now going through parliament. we met the national security adviser, and he said, yes, it is a figure of half a million, but we won't be asking, in his words, for today or tomorrow.

it'll be phased over time. but we hear reports of people being quite pushed to that. the conscription is getting a bit rough. i met someone this morning at a coffee shop in kyiv and he said he had been stopped on the street by officials and asked why he wasn't at the front line. you hear these stories about people being questioned about about their whereabouts. have they served yet? what are they doing? so this is very much hanging in the air. the bill hasn't gone through yet and it's still being debated, but certainly all the reports are that the troops are exhausted. there does need to be a rotation. there needs to be more troops. president zelensky himself used the figure of a 5 to 1 ratio of russian forces and weaponry versus what the ukrainians have on the front lines right now. the fact is that huge numbers of motivated and capable ukrainian fighters,

they are tired. many of them have been wounded, many of them are dead. and replacing them has been a huge struggle. i keep hearing stories of men who are still in ukraine and still not in the army, unwilling to pop out to the shops because they are afraid of being conscripted. so they're stuck indoors all the time. you mentioned the western military support. many listeners have been asking about that, including robin in new zealand and laurie in london, particularly when will the fighter jets arrive? and here's michael from ireland. when will the us aid, if at all, be approved and sent to ukraine? and when will the eu aid that has been approved arrive there? what kind of impact can they have on the war? well, there was a report in the media here that the first f—i6 fighter pilot is being trained now, will be ready by the summer. and there have been promises

of f—i6s that will be delivered sometime this year. and president zelensky has been talking about the arrival of fighterjets that he has been asking for for a very long time and with some bitterness, saying that they yet as with all the heavy armour, the ammunition, everything, all the support that they're very grateful for, it never arrives in a timely fashion. and so to with the f—16 fighter jets that they hope will help in trying to turn the tide of war in ukraine's favor. but will they be the silver bullet that ukraine needs? possibly, possibly not. i think many people in ukraine and their backers abroad would agree that it's a comprehensive approach involving military support, diplomatic support, financial support that would ultimately help ukraine defeat russia. so any delays in providing

any of that well, they, in fact, mean that ukraine is being forced to fight with its hands being tied behind its back, because there are numerous stories of ukrainians having to withdraw, to surrender even, once they run out of ammunition. it's that bad. i remember talking to a journalist who spent four months in avdiivka over the period of autumn. and he was saying that in december, he was saying, we are lacking ammunition, we're lacking men, we're lacking everything. it's just the only thing that we're winning with is motivation. and that was in december. and then in february, we saw what we saw, avdiivka fell. well, bearing all that in mind, where does it all go from here? not least with a possible return of donald trump to the white house, along with his promise to end the war in one day?

olivier from paris. is there any chance that the international criminal court| in the hague will one dayjudge vladimir putin for the war- crimes he has committed? well, steve, that last one's for you, and i wonder if you can also tackle an email we had from philip, who says, this is putin's war. so how much would change if he, putin, were removed from the picture by natural or manmade causes? oh, that's an interesting question, isn't it? when this all began two years ago, i was calling it putin's war because there was no doubt that this was his decision that he took to launch what he calls still the special military operation, the full scale invasion of ukraine. and it's clear that a lot of senior russian officials had no idea that this was coming. but two years on, i wouldn't call it putin's war, because there are lots of people, lots of officials, propagandists on on state television who are now

involved in this. and, of course, a lot of soldiers fighting, russian soldiers fighting in ukraine. if you remove putin from the equation and someone else comes, what happens? it depends who that person is. looking back in russian history, so much depends on the person at the top. it's true. and we don't know who would succeed vladimir putin. so that's a difficult one to answer. but certainly there are a lot of other people apart from the russian president who are now on board with this. having said that, from my conversations with russians over the last few months, ordinary people here, there is a fatigue. a lot of people say to me, you know, we want peace. we want the war to be over. and people do use the word war. they called it a war. when you speak to ordinary russians, they don't use the phrase special military operation. people understand what's happening and would like peace. some people say they want peace on russia's terms. some people say they want negotiations. but people realize that this

is affecting a lot of people here in russia, too, and can't wait for it to end. and the likelihood of mr putin ending up in the international criminal court, i guess unlikely. i would think so. and certainly russian officials believe that's unlikely and speak mockingly about the arrest warrant that was issued by the international criminal court. so at the moment, it looks like russia is determined to carry on to the bitter end. some listeners are wondering what that might mean for ukraine. this is karen from ontario, canada. just wondering what the global impact of a ukrainian defeat might look like. my name is reggie. i live in a small town- in the southern united states. with the war in ukraine having i now dragged on for some time, what do everyday ukrainians see as the path forward? _ what does success look like in their eyes? - this is dave and i'm in queensland, in australia. my question is about the political future within ukraine. it's difficult to stage

elections when the country is under martial law and if russia is occupying sections of ukraine, it's very difficult to involve people living in those occupied territories in an election. if this remains a frozen conflict, where does ukraine go from here? so lots of questions there, lyse. let me start by saying i remember vividly last year at this time, president zelensky telling the people of ukraine, telling the world that ukraine will win this war and it will win this war this year. and i rememberthinking, wow, that's dangerous to say that because it doesn't look like a year ago, it didn't look like ukraine would would win, would prevail in a year. and at the same time in moscow, president putin was saying exactly the same thing, that his forces would win and win this year. and what i'm hearing from ukrainians, at least here in kyiv, they're saying, you know, we really thought that this war was not going to last a long time. we were motivated. and to a person, they'd say,

we can win and we will win. but now you hear the realization that this war could go on for a very long time, even people admitting not in public, but quietly in private, saying, you know, there's even a possibility we could lose. but this is something they don't want to say, because for ukraine, this is notjust a war. this is an existential battle. remember, this war began with president putin reaching back into his version of history and saying ukraine is a mistake of a country. ukraine doesn't have a right to exist. it is part of russia. so that is why, partly why they have stood up and fought for so long. but also you have to remember that it's different for those who are here in kyiv. war doesn't leave any part of ukraine untouched. but there is a difference between the living in a war in kyiv and being at the front lines in the east

and in the south. and of course, he's that includes territory now occupied by the russians. but there are whole towns which are have been erased that have been completely reduced. they don't exist anymore, and that people those people are living in those regions their version of this war is is much more dark and much more all all encompassing. so olga, vitali and steve. will the fighting still be going on this time next year? i mean, i really doubt it will end any time soon. i mean, not at this point. it doesn't look like it. russia is still fighting, . still determined to fight. its economy is still buoyant. i've seen projections. saying that it will grow. but let's think for the moment what ukraine's defeat - would mean for the world, | because there are so many people saying, "oh, it's only ukraine if it's gone, -

you know, life goes on anyway". but let's have a think- about an emboldened kremlin, which we which will be able to pull the strings - more effectively. we've seen it try and meddle in different democracies before. l if it defeats ukraine, - it will definitely try to do it again, using energy to try and achieve an advantagej across the globe. and that's apart from the moral issue of invading another- country, killing so many people, and applying. the principle of might- as right, we've got nuclear weapons, what are you going to do about it? l and steve, in your answer, we've also had an email from new york asking whether all this nato's support for ukraine is making russia feel even more threatened? well, in a way, nato's support plays into the kremlin�*s hands. it bolsters the kremlin�*s narrative, which it presents

to to the russian people. that narrative being that, look, we told you russia is threatened by nato. nato wants to hurt russia wants to destroy russia. that's the message you get when you switch on russian state television. so whenever nato gives support to ukraine, the russians come out with that narrative. as regards how long the fighting is going to go on for, i think vladimir putin believes he has the staying power, that russia has, the staying power that he thinks ukraine lacks and he thinks the west lacks. and there are two elections that the kremlin has its eye on this year. there's what's going to happen in russia next month. i mean, that's a given, isn't it, that vladimir putin is going to win? the kremlin controls that 100%. but then the russians are looking at the american election, too. and if donald trump comes into the white house, comes back to the white house, i think that moscow believes that that will bring a sea

change regarding the war in ukraine, even though you hear vladimir putin now bizarrely coming out publicly saying, "i supportjoe biden". in reality, i think there's little doubt that the kremlin would prefer it if donald trump came back into the white house and that would have an effect, i think the kremlin is hoping on what happens with the war in ukraine. lyse, briefly, whatever happens, the ukrainians won't give up. they say we can't give up. if we give up, we give up, we give up our lives. we give up our identity, we give up our our country. that is how high the stakes are. and to pick up on what vitali said, they keep insisting and certainly president zelensky insists at every turn it's not just ukraine's war. they are fighting a war on behalf of europe, on behalf of those countries, neighbouring russia, on behalf of all those countries who say that they're fighting for democracy,

against authoritarian rule. and there is a very real risk, it is believed, in the capitals of nato countries that if president putin, if russia prevails in this war, it will only be a matter of time before russian troops cross the border into another country. president putin denies that. but who can forget january of 2022, where president putin, his foreign minister, sergey lavrov, kept repeating, we have no intention of invading ukraine. thank you all. apologies, we didn't have time to answer all your questions. but with the war set to continue, no doubt these are topics we will cover in future editions of ukrainecast and the global news podcast. but for now, goodbye. ukrainecast from bbc news.

hello there. we had fewer showers around on saturday and with clearer skies and light winds it is turning pretty chilly out there, but we've got some more rain to come on sunday. it will come from this area of low pressure, that will tend to slide across towards france and that is where we'll get any mild air heading. we're still going to be in the chillier conditions and we have a more widespread slight frost by early morning. again, the lowest temperatures will be in north—east scotland, minus five or six. mist and fog patches, too, which will be slow to clear in the morning, but we will see rain developing across south—west england and south wales during sunday morning and that rain develops more widely across the south—east of england during the afternoon. away from here, we're going to find the odd shower cropping up but many places will be dry with some sunshine after the early mist and fog, and again, temperatures around eight or 9 degrees. it's getting windy with the rain in the south and more rain is not good news at all — 15 to 25 centimetres quite widely could lead

to further flooding. the rain should clear away from south wales and south—west england on sunday night, but continue in the south—east where it is going to be very windy, strong to gale force winds here. a few showers will get blown in further north from off the north sea, but with more of a stronger north—easterly wind for england and wales, it won't be as cold. frosts early monday in scotland where we've got the clearer skies. a few showers in scotland and northern ireland, shouldn't last too long, the rain slowly creeps away from the far south—east of england and with that north—easterly wind, there will be some sunny spells for england and wales and maybe the shower around as well. quite windy towards the south—east, particularly in the morning, strong to gale force winds here. the winds ease a bit in the afternoon and again we will see typical temperatures on monday around nine celsius. as one area of low pressure brings some rain in the south of england then moves away, we'll see this brief ridge of high pressure overnight into tuesday morning, so turning chilly in the south, ahead off a weather front that will bring rain down from the north—west this time.

rain on tuesday across scotland and northern ireland, followed by sunshine and showers. the rain heading into england and wales. east anglia and the south—east still look like being fine and dry here but turning more cloudy. the rain will peter out as it runs southwards and for many parts of the country, wednesday will be a dry day with some sunshine for a while.

live from washington, this is bbc news. donald trump is projected to win another republican primary, beating nikki haley

in her home state of south carolina. i'm helena humphrey at nikki haley's watch party, where we're waiting to hear from the governor after another apparent defeat. world leaders gather in kyiv to mark two years since russia launched its invasion of ukraine. and the us and uk strike 18 locations in yemen: the fourth wave of coalition strikes on houthi targets. hello, i'm carl nasman. donald trump has taken another massive step closer to the republican nomination tonight. just minutes after polls closed, us media — including our partners at cbs — projected the former president as the winner in the south carolina primary. it's a huge blow to his last remaining rival, nikki haley.

she served as south carolina's governor for six years