travelling towards the coast to cross the channel. uk chancellorjeremy hunt has said he wants to "find a way to bring down the tax burden". he was speaking ahead of the spring budget that takes place later this week. pakistan has re—elected shehbaz sharif as its new prime minister after weeks of uncertainty following last month's election, which was marred by vote—rigging allegations. he beat his rival, omar ayub khan, who was backed by the jailed former prime minister, imran khan. now on bbc news, newscast with paddy o'connell and laura kuenssberg. paddy, where have you been this week? well, i was out of the bubble and i was on the lizard in cornwall. you were out of the bubble and on the lizard... that's right. it's a song. but it allowed me to see the signalling upgrade, the once—in—a—generation signalling upgrade in cornwall and devon. ooh! and so we commissioned a sea shanty on the subject of the rail replacement bus.

i love that. can you sing it for me? luckily, no, because i can give you, from the clams, the the first one is called maids can't travel round on tractors. it's an all—female group called the clams and it's a tribute to the rail replacement bus. # as i walked down on bank street one evening injuly # i looked for a bus or a lift for us, but never one came by # and away cornwall, my dear council # for cornish maids can't travel round on tractors! # there you go, that's a flavour of it. want another one? i do want another one because i'm not entirely sure... are we going to get to the chancellor or not? eventually, but this is much more fun. so this is riding on a donkey. # trains are cancelled, notice short # how am i going to get to work? # bus replacement, that will hurt # go and fetch the donkey # hey, hey and away we'll go

# donkey riding, donkey riding # hey, hey and away we'll go riding on a donkey.# that's it. i love that. what i want to know is whether any of those singers actually have a donkey? and if any of newscasters actually have a donkey, tell us about your donkey. i can tell you that we do have a donkey listener well, not a listener, an owner because we've received an email in the past when i got into cat gate. oh, yes, cat gate was followed by a donkey... offending the cat owners of the nation. so we take our hat off to anyone who drives a rail replacement bus. we do. but being involved in rail replacement bus horror is very nasty for rail passengers, and there's going to be a few weeks of it. and there is nothing like actually arriving at the station

and seeing on the board rail replacement bus service. you've nailed it. now we're going to put that behind us now with the best route in the world. as you have been speaking to the chancellor. i have. and it is the budget on wednesday. donkeys, newscasters, everybody strap in. newscast. newscast from the bbc. it's laura in the studio. it's paddy in the studio. and henry is having a little lie down again this weekend because it's a busy week in westminster. but we are delighted to be joined by torsten bell from the resolution foundation, a think tank that does lots of number crunching. but we should also say to newscasters, you work for ed miliband, you're a labour figure, prominent figure in labour circles as well. you're making a face! in ancient history. i'd say i'm a prominent figure in resolution foundation circles, and we are an independent think tank _ ten years since you worked for labour. nine years, 2015. but long, long years.

goodness me, we've brexited, since then we've pandemic—ed, podcasts have been invented, sea shanties have been written. much has taken place. a lot has happened. but have things changed in terms of what it's like? do you think being in the treasury when you are preparing a budget because you worked for alistair darling, he had to produce budgets in very, very difficult times. i remember then actually one of his budgets that came up and said, oh, debt might hit 89% of gdp at some and everyone went, oh my god! and actually we've managed that. we've managed that, and even worse. so what's it like if you're in a treasury team at a moment like this? well, i mean, it's busy. that's blindingly obvious. i mean, it is very different injust different circumstances. you know, writing a budget in happy economic times when there's good news to announce is quite a fun thing for chancellors. remember, you know, it's a bit different nowadays, but if you're going back to the 2000s, you wouldn't see no. you know, gordon brown when he was chancellor would only be out, you know, four or five times a year doing big things. two of those would have been fiscal events and they were basically opportunities to shape the political

weather largely, in those days by announcing good news and that obviously hasn't been the case due to the less good news recently. it's a great point. and also we've gone into this year with rishi sunak promising tax cuts being leading the government with the biggest tax take since 1945 and the chancellor being the man who has to add them up. yeah. i mean, you saneremy on laura's show earlier. your first question to him was, did you feel a bit silly having told everyone there was tax cuts coming a few months ago and now wandering around telling everyone, maybe not quite as much as we thought? and he didn't say this because he's a loyal member of the government, but the honest answer is he must feel silly. it's a really silly situation for a chancellor to be in, and the bit he can't say is he didn't have any choice because rishi sunak had already gone out at the beginning of the year and started promising those tax cuts, so he was going to have to say that's what's to say that's what's coming. and tell us why that

matters rather than just, of the chancellor.. why does that matter that a chancellor and a government is going around saying, aha, yes, we really think we can cut tax and that's going to be marvellous, only then a couple of months later, yeah, probably going to be cut tax, but probably not by very much. why does that matter? well, i think there's two reasons why it's you know, the substance of it is silly. so the first isjust, you know, you haven't received the official forecasts at that point back in january in any detail. they can move around a lot and you've learnt that over the last few years. and so setting your economic or indeed your political strategy before you know where you're going to end up in march is just not very sensible. but there's a specific thing, which is the reason we're in that situation is because, you know, we've got into a world where decisions about those forecasts, even quite small ones. forecasts, even quite small ones — so, you know, it doesn't sound small to have like 5 billion change in a forecast in either direction because obviously 5 billion,

to any of us is a huge amount of money, but 5 billion is a rounding error in the public finances. but it is really affecting what the government's able to do. and the reason that's happening is because they are running so close up against their fiscal rules, you know, to have debt falling at the end of the five—year period, they're running right up against it and that is why they're getting themselves into trouble. we are going to talk about the fiscal rules, but we mustjust hear from the chancellor. here he is. where it's possible . to do so responsibly, to move towards a lower tax economy, and i hope to show a path— in that direction. for long—term growth, i tackling inflation, more investment, more jobs, - and that path to lower taxation as and when we can afford it. so to translate, you're probably going to get a bit of tax cut, but probably not very much. and oh, look, i'm mr prudence — sounds a bit like gordon brown. and that's the interesting thing here. he's having to reflect a worsening economic picture within the spending limits that the government has set itself. now, today, we've already used the hideous jargon

"fiscal rules" a lot. thorsten, give us for newscasters a layman's easy to understand version of what that actually means. well, in the case of the government today, the fiscal rules — so these are you know, there's not a real rule. yes, they're a choice imposed by the chancellor. although it's the same one that the shadow chancellor endorses, at least implicitly, it's that the level of debt. so not the day to day borrowing that you're borrowing extra each year, but the amount stock of debt. so like our mortgage for all of us in terms of the actual level of it, that will be falling between years four and five of the forecast. and so long as that's happening, we're meeting our fiscal rules. now, why is he doing that? because in the long run, we're saying, look, debt should be on a downward trajectory

because bad stuff happens. as we've all learned over the last 15 years or so, this is the issue that tripped up the treasury secretary, secretary, the treasury on the deficit. yes, this was this was new low. i felt very sorry for the chief secretary of treasury. putting past car crashes aside, let's talk about the biggest collision of all, which was the unfunded liz truss... kwasi kwarteng. .. liz truss was worse than the chief secretary's cock up on. but but let's just get to jeremy hunt's. what faisal islam calls jeremy hunt's origin story. he came in as chancellor and by simply being jeremy hunt in a pair of trousers, calmed the financial market before he'd ever done anything. so we were reminded jested by faisal islam thatjeremy hunt has to borrow gordon brown's prudent statement, because that was how it all began for him. yeah, absolutely. and look, most chancellors most of the time are saying that they're being prudent people. in fact, even if they're spending money and giving money away,

they're probably saying they're doing it prudently, which again, is what he was doing. kwasi kwarteng has told us that he was just wrong. kwasi kwarteng is the one exception who, even after they'd done the car crash mini budget on friday afternoon in september, back in 2022, then went out and the markets had already started responding negatively on that friday afternoon, then went out, in fact was on your show... on the sunday when the markets were closed, but the tv studios were not told them there was more cuts to come. and in a surprise move, the markets got even worse on the monday morning. can ijust say, if you're listening to this rather than watching it, both paddy and thorsten were actually pointing the finger directly at me! someone needs to take responsibility for the collapse in confidence in britain! you're about to do it again! fit to your pointy fingers away! now i want to hear what you think, because i think it's your interview with the chancellor. so i think he is in the classic rock and hard place. the economy is worse than they hoped, so there's not very much money to spend. they've got the obr, the economic watchdog, marking their homework and saying there's hardly any extra beans to go around. but on the other hand, you've got the tory backbenchers,

you've got a public that's very well aware of the fact that they're paying more tax than they've ever paid. so he's got this absolute rock and hard place. that's why you hear him then saying, i'm going to give you a little bit back, because i really believe that as a proper conservative, people should have as much money as they possibly can in their own pockets that was theirs through their own endeavours and hard work. it probably won't be enough for lots of people on his backbenches. but he, as a political character and as a chancellor, has resolved to try as much as he can to stay within the limits that they have set. although i do think in listening to him this morning as well, there is this sense, and i think this is going to happen on wednesday, that the treasury's sort of been like scraping around for a bit here and a bit there and a new vape tax and a bit here and a bit there in order to try to give people a little bit back. and it might end up being that sort of messy middle, no—one�*s really that happy. but what happens when you're running so close to these fiscal rules because you end up in this silly

situation where you're like... a little bit here. which is a mad way to run the country. and chris, who's our editor today, newscast producer, says this is a very good time to hear jeremy hunt on the fiscal rules. idon't agree that we should change the fiscal rules because i think- people would interpret that as britain losing _ control of its finances. i i do very strongly agree with andyl that we need a long term approach. now he's talking about andy haldane there, who was on our panel this morning, who used to be the chief economist of the bank of england and who very forcefully said he actually thinks the way the spending limits have been set up is actually harming the economy. and everybody on our panel agreed. actually, we had vicky spratt, who's a housing expert in journalist and who i think is fair to say she's sort of on the left of politics, broadly speaking. we had sir rocco fortier, sort of legendary hotelier, very much on the right of the political spectrum. they all said, actually, the way these limits have been set up is harming the way that governments take decisions because they're not then able to take longer term decisions

or make longer term choices because they're so worried about being within these constraints. you could look upon it as someone lucky enough to get a mortgage, of which there are fewer and fewer, if you came along and said you can't get a mortgage after 40, that's my new fiscal rule, you could call it a new banking rule, then everyone of 39 would be desperately trying to buy a house. that's what the effect of the rule would be. and i know you do a greatjob, thorsten, in letting us understand it from the household budget. so there's a lot of criticism of these rules and the obr. and is it fair criticism? do you think some criticism of the regime that we now operate in, where the obr marks the homework before the budget and where the fiscal rules are set in the way that law is discussed with the chancellor, is it fair to think that this has constrained normal actions of a chancellor elected by the people? there's lots of different moving bits in that, it's a very long question, paddy, so we can share some blame around. i mean, look, the underlying thing

that's making things difficult is the substance, which is, you know, the economy is not growing very fast. tax revenues aren't coming in as fast as we would like to see. a higher inflation era has put lots of pressure on public services who also have to pay for things. so it's the substance that's mainly making things hard and everything else is small compared to that. in terms of the policy freedom, then the chancellor chooses the fiscal rule. and if we're honest, and you didn't get into this on the show this_ morning, understandably, but the fiscal rule is actually pretty loose. so it's not like george osborne, we've got to crush the deficit kind of approach. it's five years out. it's not really very large falls in debt being targeted. if you want to blame the rules, then the the thing that's suboptimal about them is that they treat investment spending exactly the same as current spending. so it treats the stuff that's likely to help our growth in the long run — transport, housing... replacement buses!

yes, buying the bus, not running the bus. it treats that exactly the same as day to day spending. and what that result of that to make it really concrete is when when jeremy hunt came in after the liz truss debacle, one of the things he did is to slash investment spending to make the numbers add up again. and that is a very bad thing for our long run growth. i thinkjeremy hunt knows that as well. he doesn't want to be in that situation. there's low hanging fruit for rachel reeves there. she can say, i'm broadly going to keep the fiscal rules. she can allow herself to rewrite them and she can make a difference between investment spending and current debt. well, i think she should, but that's not her position. her position is exactly the same as jeremy hunt's on the fiscals, but in the long run, that is the world we should get back to. but all i would say is it's very easy for like people commentating on economic policy at the moment to say, oh, if the fiscal rules change like this, all the problems would go away. and all the panel did that this morning but that isn't the real world. because as i say, the issue is not that we have really, really tight rules, that we loosen a bit. all these trade offs go away then we have actually quite we have quite tight quite a loose rule right now.

it should just be changed in its nature. you know what's interesting is that i think we've actuallyjust had a really interesting debate about the high principles of this, about the rules and how they're set and the institutions and the infrastructure around how budgets are put together rather than actually, here are some of the interesting measures that there might be, and that is not, newscasters, because we're trying to ignore some of the real world measures that might be announced on wednesday. but actually, maybe that suggests that wednesday's list of announcements might be kind of enough to put on a post—it rather than a big thing. so what should people be looking out for, for things that might actually affect their lives? and then what do you think the likely impact might be on the economy? because we want to play you also andy haldane�*s prospects for the economy in a couple of minutes. i mean, it's true that it's going to be a shorter list of measures this week. i mean, there was a huge, long list of hundreds of measures back in the autumn for the autumn statement — this will be a much shorter list. i do think we've got ourselves in a slightly weird position onjudging the scale of what's being announced, because people are talking as if taking 2p off the basic rate of national insurance

in february and then coming back and take 1p or 2p off, as if 4p off national insurance isn't a big deal. it's actually how the papers are talking today. and that is mad. i mean, if you looked at british politics over the last 30 years, you'd think that was like huge as a policy agenda in terms of the concrete stuff. look, we know some things we're going to get. why is the budget happening on the 6th of march, not later in march, like normal, because he wants to scrap the 5p increase in fuel duty that's due on the 23rd of march. so that is an absolute locked on certainty. one we'll definitely see. a cut to national insurance. so the question is, is it 1p or 2p coming off it? we're seeing lots of smaller measures that may not get you excited, but on pensions reform then, which i think some of which are sensible, some of which look maybe a little bit less sensible, but they're broad in the right. so we'll get a list of things. he's going to talk a lot about public service productivity. he mentioned his he is very focused on aland what that can

do in public services. i'm going to say three and four and maybe we'll add in a vaping tax five. yeah. but sorry, laura, i'm just going to say that we are still getting where you've been. you've been right before, which is you still going for something. yeah, i'm very happy to be wrong newscasters and will be honest about it. are we in this tresco... so are you both telling me we can't see an election fought where we go? we see a tory candidate say we took a penny off the basic rate of income tax. i'm not saying i can't see that. i'm saying i don't think it will come this week, but i may well be wrong. i think the case — i'm with laura and i think the case for that is the chancellor made a big deal about choosing national insurance over income tax back in the autumn. and remember, one of the first things he did as chancellor was to come in and reverse the cut in income tax that liz truss had put in place. so he would be having to go back on something he'd done. plus he really wants to be seen

as yes someone doing what the conservative party wants for an election strategy, delivering some tax cuts, but doing it in a sensible way because he's leaving his legacy is doing it in the best possible way and it promotes work. it gives you a story about promoting work. the most important thing it does is that national insurance does cause a lot of the problems in our tax system and so bringing it down does remove some of those distortions. let'sjust have a moment, though, to think about the overall prospects of the economy. prospects of the economy, whatever he actually announces on wednesday. this was andy haldane�*s take. is there enough there to think this will be the thing - that gets growth going, that pays debt down? l the only way of paying debt down is getting the economy going? i not really. - that's not there. people are still feeling poorer and they're feeling poorer- because they are poorer. the tax take is going up, not down. monetary policy is getting tighter, not looser. - |and all of those are big headwindsj for growth that make me think this is another year of sogginess. do you think soggy? are you in the soggy camp?

and marchais. i'd rather not be if there was an _ and marchais. i'd rather not be if there was an option _ and marchais. i'd rather not be if there was an option available! i and marchais. i'd rather not be if. there was an option available! you don't aet there was an option available! you don't get a — there was an option available! 7m. don't get a tricyclic that was a very gloomy way of putting it. i mean, look, so big picture. yes, look, the british economy has had a terrible 15 years, even before 2010... unemployment, 23.9%. ——unemployment 3.9%. unemployment is at 3.9%, which is very low, historically. i think you're being one of the sort of liz truss would see you as one of those... i was about to tell you reasons to be perky before youjumped in there. all right. i was about to get us out of the swamp,

paddy, the soggy swamp. you see, because i have a fit, i'm looking for a doorstep able thing to say and for the for the for the part. i mean, look, i mean, even if you have cut insurance, you're still going to say, i've cut your income taxes, you're going to use you're going to say you're going to say the same thing. i've cut your tax on your paycheck. i mean, this is laura will know a lot about this, but if you do go for income tax rather than national insurance, you're not campaigning on that in aberdeen because it's not doesn't affect in scotland. they so i do think there are problems about for a conservative party running election campaign purely on an income tax cut anyway, but on the jerkiness to get us a bit perkier, look, inflation has come down much faster than people said last year. we could be, by mid—may, be will get the inflation numbers for april. and the energy price caps coming down. so the energy price cap will fall at the beginning of april. that basically guarantees you a large fall in the inflation. it could come down as low as 2% for all of us and for everyone at home. you know, that's a big deal. it means your wages will probably be rising faster than inflation. so there is some good news out there, but this is happening on the back of the last two years

being terrible. the economy's been shrinking as a share of in terms of per person for the last two years and our wages today at the same level they were in 2008. so people are going to feel pretty grim. i think we've given our newscasters there lots of nutritious high fibre things to chew over. i'll also just briefly mentioned that we asked jeremy hunt about the childcare offer that's meant to happen in england in a few weeks' time. he didn't guarantee, which labour were asking for, that every parent would get the place they wanted and no providers would go out of business. but he basically said, look, this is huge, we're doing our best. we hope it will kind of work, but it might not work at the beginning. let's finish with you, thorsten, on a more perhaps sort of human moment. budgets are a huge deal, not just for the chancellor, but also leaders of the opposition. they're the ones who have to stand up and respond to it. keir starmer is not an economist. ed miliband, who you worked for, had to do thatjob and he probably is more of an economist than keir starmer. but what's it like being the leader of the opposition, having to respond to that and being one of their staffers like watching on where you watch the chancellor sat up and give all these announcements and then your guy or girl has

to stand up and say something coherent after that. so one of the basic rules of life is that being the leader of the opposition is a terrible idea. for any of you considering it, don't do it. it's not worth it. it will ruin your life, your family, everything about it, and suck the meaning from the core of your being. so generally it's awful. i mean, being slightly more serious, one of the reasons it's awful is because in anything in life, spending your whole life waiting for something to happen in future, for the chancellor to do something is kind of not a great place to be. and then to prove that it's awful, are budgets where you, rather than the shadow chancellor, have to stand up and respond. and nowadays, actually we do know more in general and in advance of budgets than we used to because everything is briefed in advance, as you guys have said in yourjob, especially as a conservative, might very well steal a labour party policy on ending non—dom taxes. oh, thank you for that. we'll just steal that. we need crimestoppers in ahead of this budget for the very good party. well, rachel reeves, she's going to be there. that's the line that he was going to use. you've just stolen starmer's genius line. i mean, if they do do that, that gives him a very easy thing to say, doesn't it? i think it's terrible is the answer.

i mean, it'sjust a terrible thing to do. and it's also going to be very difficult for rachel reeves if she becomes chancellor because she's going to inherit all of this. now, look, you've done an amazing job and on a sunday, but it can't go on. which bit, the sunday? no, this amazing trisco. thank you very much, thorsten. thank you. great to have you. newscast from the bbc. and so now we're going to say goodbye with a little bit of good news, which is to say that i won't be here next weekend. that's terrible news. that's good. because you will be reunited with adam fleming for the weekend editions of newscasts. well, that's a first. how will i keep him in order? well, it's going to be great viewing and listening.

that's the whole point. where are you going? will you divulge? what it is, is because i do a sunday morning shift. i can't go out on saturday night. i've got to go out on saturday night so i can't work. i could come in, but i won't. hang on, are you taking sunday off because you're incapable of going out on a saturday night without it turning into an absolute bender? it is kind of — that is my life in a nutshell. so that means i don't go out on saturday night, but i have got to go out on sunday night. so therefore i'm taking off. but i feel this is much more information than anyone wanted. no, i want more! well, funnily enough, we have an even more fantasy dinner party from an anonymous. party from an anonymous whatsapp. rachel reeves's picks — she wanted garry kasparov she wanted to be on say she wanted virginia woolf and now no wonder this is anonymous. i want adam, chris, laura, paddy and mel brooks. oh, there you go. that's not what you're doing next week, is it?

it's definitely a goodbye moment. good bye, everybody. thank you for listening. i will see you next week while paddy is off on the lash! it's true. i can't deny. what you've said is true. confirm or deny? no, i cannot deny. thank you very much. goodbye for now. goodbye. newscast from the bbc. hello, thanks forjoining me. let's see what the weather is up to for the rest of today and, indeed, the next few days. here's the summary for this evening. for most of us, dry and chilly, and with clearer skies this evening and overnight, another frost on the way. now, in the next few days, it's actually going to turn a little less chilly. we'll see these milder southwesterlies developing. that's from around about mid—week onwards. ok, the forecast, then — starting with the satellite picture, and you can see how big the gaps in the clouds have been, all of that bright, if not sunny weather today.

the evening temperatures will already be pretty low. in fact, by the time we get to about 6pm, only four degrees for birmingham, five degrees for glasgow. generally dry, just a few showers scattered here and there. so the forecast, then, for tonight — a lot of clear, dry weather, just a few showers again in the western isles, maybe one or two out towards the west. there is a weather front approaching. that does spell rain for tomorrow, but ahead of it, before it arrives, it's a frosty morning and, in fact, temperatures around freezing, whether you're in aberdeen or on the south coast of england. plymouth there at around three celsius above freezing. the weather map for monday shows that weather front approaching south—western parts of the uk. so that introduces thicker cloud and outbreaks of rain i think later on in the morning. so ahead of it, a lot of bright if not sunny weather, and then that weather front sweeps into the south—west, into wales, eventually through ireland, into northern ireland. but notice many eastern and northern areas, especially here in scotland, should have a sunny day, and the temperatures about the same — eight in aberdeen, ten in hull, 12 in london, and with that strengthening wind

there, about nine degrees with that rain in cornwall and devon. tuesday, that weather front eventually moves across the uk. it's going to fizzle out and i think there will be some light rain around in the morning in scotland, some of these eastern counties closer to the north sea coast. but out towards the west, it's generally dry and bright on tuesday. and again, not a huge amount of change in the temperature — between around nine and 12 degrees celsius. but we'll start to see that slightly less cold air sweeping in so i think across the bulk of the uk, temperatures should be just around double figures, but it's not going to be a huge change. and the weather i think a little drier as we go through the course of the week.

live from london, this is bbc news. a hold—up in the gaza peace talks — israel is reported not to be sending a delegation to cairo. a seven—year—old girl has drowned after a small boat carrying migrants heading to the uk capsized in northern france. uk chancellorjeremy hunt has said he wants to "find a way to bring down the tax burden," ahead of the spring budget this week. parliament in pakistan has elected shehbaz sharif as prime minister for a second term.

and all the sports news as phil foden equalises for city in football's manchester derby. hello, i'm luxmy gopal. our main story this hour... there are reports of a hold—up in negotiations for a temporary ceasefire in gaza. israel is reported not to be sending a delegation to the talks taking place in cairo. that's despite us officials saying a ceasefire deal was already "on the table" and israel had approved it. the sticking point appears to be hamas not supplying a list of the hostages who would be released. washington had been hoping for a deal by monday — taking effect before ramadan, in a week's time. i asked our correspondent wyre davies, injerusalem, about the doubts regarding whether the israeli delegation will participate in the cairo talks. those earlier rumours from washington had sent pulses