in the mind of announced an increase in the mind of universal credit that matthew's brother will get. universal credit that matthew's brotherwill get. from universal credit that matthew's brother will get. from the 8th of april that will go up by about £25 a week. the best thing matthew could hope for would be an increase in the personal allowance he gets on income tax. that sounds dry and academic, but it is set at £12,570. if that were to go up, then matthew's earnings that he would not be taxed on could also go up. the thing we will be looking out for, is there any hope the chancellor would increase their personal allowance? if not, then matthew will stand to benefit from cuts and national insurance, but as the lower earner, they will be limited. there is an increase in universal credit, he will get a bit more in take—home pay from the national insurance, but other than that, i'm not hoping for much. ., ., , i. ., much. for our viewers, you about the

threshold. and _ much. for our viewers, you about the threshold. and the _ much. for our viewers, you about the threshold. and the allowance. - much. for our viewers, you about the threshold. and the allowance. what l threshold. and the allowance. what is the difference? personal allowance and then we've been talking about tax thresholds as well. , ,., . talking about tax thresholds as well. , ., ., ., ., . , ., well. the personal allowance is that first threshold. _ well. the personal allowance is that first threshold. everyone _ well. the personal allowance is that first threshold. everyone who - well. the personal allowance is that first threshold. everyone who earns| first threshold. everyone who earns a wage in the uk can earn 12500 and 70p and not pay a penny of income tax on that money. the problem for us is when inflation starts to push our wages up, us is when inflation starts to push ourwages up, and us is when inflation starts to push our wages up, and we are earning more than that, that we start to pay income tax. the thing we all hope for is that threshold, the personal allowance, the first threshold picks up allowance, the first threshold picks up and then we'd all get a lot more pay in our pocket at the end of the month. , ., . ~ ., a, month. lets go back to matthew, ou're month. lets go back to matthew, you're still— month. lets go back to matthew, you're still with _ month. lets go back to matthew, you're still with us. _ month. lets go back to matthew, you're still with us. there - month. lets go back to matthew, l you're still with us. there anything you're still with us. there anything you want to ask wholly about what she has said? what is your reaction? at the end of the day, the budget is 'ust at the end of the day, the budget is just lots_ at the end of the day, the budget is just lots of— at the end of the day, the budget is just lots of number crunching for me _ just lots of number crunching for me it _ just lots of number crunching for me. it might seem boring, but it is the impact — me. it might seem boring, but it is the impact it— me. it might seem boring, but it is the impact it has on myself and many

other— the impact it has on myself and many other carers _ the impact it has on myself and many other carers around the country. basically. — other carers around the country. basically, one thing i'd like to ask holly— basically, one thing i'd like to ask holly is _ basically, one thing i'd like to ask holly is what sort of thing should carers _ holly is what sort of thing should carers do — holly is what sort of thing should carers do to make sure that they can be well— carers do to make sure that they can be well protected when things go terribly— be well protected when things go terribly wrong and have to provide unpaid _ terribly wrong and have to provide unpaid care? what could help carers to protect _ unpaid care? what could help carers to protect themselves? we unpaid care? what could help carers to protect themselves?— to protect themselves? we have re orted to protect themselves? we have reported for— to protect themselves? we have reported for months _ to protect themselves? we have reported for months now - to protect themselves? we have reported for months now on - to protect themselves? we have | reported for months now on bbc, to protect themselves? we have - reported for months now on bbc, we hearfrom carers reported for months now on bbc, we hear from carers who say they are concerned, they want more help and support because it is a job in addition, either having to give up work or holding down a job at the same time. the work or holding down a 'ob at the same time.— work or holding down a 'ob at the same time. , ., , , ., same time. the problem is for the 5 million peeple _ same time. the problem is for the 5 million people who _ same time. the problem is for the 5 million people who are _ same time. the problem is for the 5 million people who are working - million people who are working carers, they are not eligible at the moment for the carer�*s allowance, that means people like matthew, they are very reliant from things like today's budget on increases in personal allowance or the accounts to national insurance. as hard as it is when budgets are so tight at the moment, as matthew said, what can he

do to protect himself if things go wrong? interest rates are high at the moment, shopping around, making sure any cash savings you are having, you are earning as much interest as you possibly can. i do not expect to hear anything from the chancer today that will directly help or impact those 5 million working carers.— help or impact those 5 million workin: carers. ~., ., , , working carers. matthew, hopefully we will speak— working carers. matthew, hopefully we will speak to _ working carers. matthew, hopefully we will speak to you _ working carers. matthew, hopefully we will speak to you later _ working carers. matthew, hopefully we will speak to you later as - working carers. matthew, hopefully we will speak to you later as well. we will speak to you later as well after the budget to get your reaction on what the chancellor does actually say. we have also got joanne on the line. welcome to bbc news. set out your concerns, your position ahead of the budget today and why you have chosen to speak to us about it. i and why you have chosen to speak to us about it. . and why you have chosen to speak to us about it— us about it. i am here because affordable _ us about it. i am here because affordable housing _ us about it. i am here because affordable housing needs - us about it. i am here because affordable housing needs to i us about it. i am here because| affordable housing needs to be looked — affordable housing needs to be looked at _ affordable housing needs to be looked at i_ affordable housing needs to be looked at. i live _ affordable housing needs to be looked at. i live in _ affordable housing needs to be looked at. i live in a _ affordable housing needs to be looked at. i live in a shared - looked at. i live in a shared ownership _ looked at. i live in a shared ownership and _ looked at. i live in a shared ownership and the - looked at. i live in a shared ownership and the rent - looked at. i live in a shared| ownership and the rent side looked at. i live in a shared i ownership and the rent side of looked at. i live in a shared - ownership and the rent side of my home _ ownership and the rent side of my home has— ownership and the rent side of my home has faced _ ownership and the rent side of my home has faced two _ ownership and the rent side of my home has faced two increases - ownership and the rent side of my. home has faced two increases since i moved _ home has faced two increases since i moved in _

home has faced two increases since i moved in i_ home has faced two increases since i moved in i moved— home has faced two increases since i moved in. i moved in— home has faced two increases since i moved in. i moved in 14— home has faced two increases since i moved in. i moved in 14 months - home has faced two increases since ij moved in. i moved in 14 months ago. the rent _ moved in. i moved in 14 months ago. the rent side — moved in. i moved in 14 months ago. the rent side of— moved in. i moved in 14 months ago. the rent side of things— the rent side of things has increased _ the rent side of things has increased by— the rent side of things has increased by 20%. - the rent side of things has increased by 20%. i- the rent side of things has increased by 20%. i did . the rent side of things has increased by 20%. i did anj increased by 20%. i did an affordability— increased by 20%. i did an affordability assessment l increased by 20%. i did ani affordability assessment to increased by 20%. i did an - affordability assessment to be able to afford _ affordability assessment to be able to afford this — affordability assessment to be able to afford this property— affordability assessment to be able to afford this property on _ affordability assessment to be able to afford this property on an - to afford this property on an average _ to afford this property on an average salary, _ to afford this property on an average salary, and - to afford this property on an average salary, and within. to afford this property on an . average salary, and within two months — average salary, and within two months of— average salary, and within two months of moving _ average salary, and within two months of moving in— average salary, and within two months of moving in to - average salary, and within two months of moving in to the . average salary, and within two - months of moving in to the property, the housing _ months of moving in to the property, the housing association _ months of moving in to the property, the housing association up _ months of moving in to the property, the housing association up the - the housing association up the rent from £319— the housing association up the rent from £319 to — the housing association up the rent from £319 to £345, _ the housing association up the rent from £319 to £345, and _ the housing association up the rent from £319 to £345, and then - the housing association up the rent from £319 to £345, and then last i from £319 to £345, and then last week, _ from £319 to £345, and then last week, i— from £319 to £345, and then last week, i got— from £319 to £345, and then last week, i got another— from £319 to £345, and then last week, i got another letter, - from £319 to £345, and then last week, i got another letter, and i from £319 to £345, and then last| week, i got another letter, and it has gone — week, i got another letter, and it has gone up _ week, i got another letter, and it has gone up to— week, i got another letter, and it has gone up to £395. _ week, i got another letter, and it has gone up to £395. that - week, i got another letter, and it has gone up to £395. that is - has gone up to £395. that is alongside _ has gone up to £395. that is alongside my— has gone up to £395. that is alongside my mortgage. - has gone up to £395. that isl alongside my mortgage. this has gone up to £395. that is - alongside my mortgage. this was supposed — alongside my mortgage. this was supposed to— alongside my mortgage. this was supposed to he _ alongside my mortgage. this was supposed to be affordable - alongside my mortgage. this was i supposed to be affordable housing. can i supposed to be affordable housing. can i ask— supposed to be affordable housing. can i ask you — supposed to be affordable housing. can i ask you about _ supposed to be affordable housing. can i ask you about that, _ supposed to be affordable housing. can i ask you about that, holly, - can i ask you about that, holly, joanna saying it was supposed to be affordable housing, but it's almost like the sentence affordable and housing cannot be spoken together at the moment. there are so many people who look at the interest rate, look at how they are unable to save to get on the property ladder, and are in despair. you

get on the property ladder, and are in desair. ., ., , in despair. you mentioned interest the rates they _ in despair. you mentioned interest the rates they are _ in despair. you mentioned interest the rates they are and _ in despair. you mentioned interest the rates they are and one - in despair. you mentioned interest the rates they are and one thing i the rates they are and one thing from today's the people actually want, we won a boring budget. if you think back to the mini budget of 2022, the fallout from that... that had a massive impact on markets. we do not want any sense that inflation might creep back out of control. we do not want any sense that interest rates might go up again. for many people, you have got a high percentage of their outgoings dependent on interest rates, whether thatis dependent on interest rates, whether that is a mortgage payment, or a date that they have. they will be hoping for a boring budget that will notjeopardise hoping for a boring budget that will not jeopardise that fall hoping for a boring budget that will notjeopardise that fall in interest rates that we are currently seeing. it is worth reminding our viewers, the bank of england sets interest rates. , , ., rates. they will respond to inflationary _ rates. they will respond to inflationary pressures. - rates. they will respond to inflationary pressures. we| rates. they will respond to - inflationary pressures. we wouldn't hear that today _ inflationary pressures. we wouldn't hear that today in _ inflationary pressures. we wouldn't hear that today in any _ inflationary pressures. we wouldn't hear that today in any case. - inflationary pressures. we wouldn't hear that today in any case. we -

hear that today in any case. we wouldn't hear that today in any case. - wouldn't hear it today, but we do not want to see the chancer, perhaps he's not going to cut income tax because that might be seen as inflationary. 0ne because that might be seen as inflationary. one thing that is a bit of hope, a beacon of hope for people likejoanne, is the cut in national insurance. for someone on £40,000 a year, we might see they have about £45 a month more in their pocket. what we want to see is the proportion that she is paying as a mortgage, those interest rates come down, we also would hope to see that cut in national insurance which will mean more money in her pocket. let's not forget that energy prices are going to come down in april. again, there is a little bit of light at there is a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel. but as you say, housing remains a really crippling problem for many people in the uk, again, will today's budget deliver as much to solve that problem? i'm not overly confident. joanne, what are your thoughts on

holly's analysis of your situation? i think this 2% national insurance cut is— i think this 2% national insurance cut is going — i think this 2% national insurance cut is going to— i think this 2% national insurance cut is going to be _ i think this 2% national insurance cut is going to be very, - i think this 2% national insurance cut is going to be very, very- i think this 2% national insurance| cut is going to be very, very good for people — cut is going to be very, very good for people who _ cut is going to be very, very good for people who are _ cut is going to be very, very good for people who are on _ cut is going to be very, very good i for people who are on high incomes, but not _ for people who are on high incomes, but not for— for people who are on high incomes, but not for people _ for people who are on high incomes, but not for people who _ for people who are on high incomes, but not for people who are _ for people who are on high incomes, but not for people who are on - but not for people who are on average — but not for people who are on average incomes. _ but not for people who are on average incomes. anybody. but not for people who are on - average incomes. anybody below, what, _ average incomes. anybody below, what. for— average incomes. anybody below, what. for 2000, _ average incomes. anybody below, what, for2000, it's— average incomes. anybody below, what, for 2000, it's not— average incomes. anybody below, what, for 2000, it's not going - average incomes. anybody below, what, for 2000, it's not going to. average incomes. anybody below, i what, for 2000, it's not going to be that of— what, for 2000, it's not going to be that of a _ what, for 2000, it's not going to be that of a difference. _ what, for 2000, it's not going to be that of a difference. for— what, for 2000, it's not going to be that of a difference. for 2000. - what, for 2000, it's not going to be| that of a difference. for 2000. does the nhs _ that of a difference. for 2000. does the nhs need — that of a difference. for 2000. does the nhs need those _ that of a difference. for 2000. does the nhs need those cuts _ that of a difference. for 2000. does the nhs need those cuts at - that of a difference. for 2000. does the nhs need those cuts at the - the nhs need those cuts at the moment? — the nhs need those cuts at the moment? . ~ the nhs need those cuts at the moment? ., ,, , ., the nhs need those cuts at the moment? ., ,, y., . g moment? thank you so much, joanne. thank ou moment? thank you so much, joanne. thank you to — moment? thank you so much, joanne. thank you to matthew, _ moment? thank you so much, joanne. thank you to matthew, and _ moment? thank you so much, joanne. thank you to matthew, and your- thank you to matthew, and your brother, and hopefully we will be back with all three of you after we have heard from the chancellor to get your thoughts on what he says. thank you to holly, we will be back with you later as well hopefully to digest and analyse what we hear from the chancellor. for the moment, thank you very much. this is the

scene live in downing street, the door of number 11, that is where the chancellor lives. we are waiting for jeremy hunt to appear with his treasury team from that door. they have been putting the final touches to their year's budget. we will be seeing him with his team, holding up the famous or infamous, i should say, red box which contains all of those budget documents. 0nce say, red box which contains all of those budget documents. once he has done that, the photo moment outside the door of number 11, he will then head to here where i am, on college green, he will head to the house of commons, and as always happens on a wednesday, there will be prime minister's questions at 12 o'clock and at 12.30, the chancellor will get to his feet and deliver this

year's spring budget. we are going to move away from news that westminster here for the moment. we have some breaking news now. jasmine kang has been charged with murdering her ten—year—old daughter whose body was found at midday on monday. west midlands police have announced that. she will appear before magistrates in wolverhampton on wednesday. tributes have been paid to teach a man who has been described as a bright and fun loving girl. we will have more on that story when we get out. back to westminster and the foreign secretary is expected to... warnings that israel could be in breach of international humanitarian law if it fails to allow more aid into gaza. it comes as the world food programme says the israel

defence forces have thwarted attempts to bring aid into gaza after a convoy of 14 lorries were turned back at the checkpoint. let's take you back to the scene live in downing street. we are watching the door closely because we are waiting to see the chancellorjeremy hunt appear. this is budget day here in the uk. it is 10.40 at the moment. we are expecting him to deliver this year's spring budget at 12.30 today following prime minister's questions. it is a bit unusual, actually, but they have already confirmed one of the proposals, a bid proposal, which will be a 2p cut in national insurance. this follows another 2p cut that was announced in the autumn statement byjeremy hunt.

that came into effect from january of this year. now, there were some in the conservative party who actually hoped that he would cut income tax which many conservative mps thought could be a vote winner ahead of the general election. but it is not likely that is going to happen now. there were some concerns that if he were to cut income tax, it could be an inflationary moved. there are other things that have been talked about as well. let's have a look in more detail. my colleague nina reports.- have a look in more detail. my colleague nina reports. good morning from the river — colleague nina reports. good morning from the river tyne, _ colleague nina reports. good morning from the river tyne, the _ colleague nina reports. good morning from the river tyne, the iconic - from the river tyne, the iconic bridge crossing the river behind me. this part of the world, the north—east, has a strong history of mining, shipbuilding, that has given way to manufacturing, to retail. the service industries. there is a thriving student population here. in the wider region, i read 2.6 million

people, every household is wanting something we have spoken to people from across the region. let's talk to david from gateshead college. many other businesses this morning have spoken about how crippling vats. people might not know that even had to pay it. that vats. people might not know that even had to pay it.— even had to pay it. at gateshead colleae even had to pay it. at gateshead college and _ even had to pay it. at gateshead college and in _ even had to pay it. at gateshead college and in the _ even had to pay it. at gateshead college and in the college - even had to pay it. at gateshead | college and in the college sector, focus _ college and in the college sector, focus is _ college and in the college sector, focus is on — college and in the college sector, focus is on meeting the skill needs of employers. that has been identified as a government priority. we want _ identified as a government priority. we want to— identified as a government priority. we want to help the government mean that priority— we want to help the government mean that priority and the way to do it through— that priority and the way to do it through a — that priority and the way to do it through a well funded 16 tertiary education system. colleges return £210 million in vat to the treasury annually _ £210 million in vat to the treasury annually. and we have a situation where _ annually. and we have a situation where schools, academies and fee—paying schools are able to retain — fee—paying schools are able to retain it~ — fee—paying schools are able to retain it. essentially, we are not asking _ retain it. essentially, we are not asking the — retain it. essentially, we are not asking the government for more money, — asking the government for more money, we are asking to retain £210 million _ money, we are asking to retain £210 million that — money, we are asking to retain £210 million that we already provide to the treasury. it million that we already provide to the treasury-— million that we already provide to the treasury. it wouldn't cost more to no to

the treasury. it wouldn't cost more to go to college. — the treasury. it wouldn't cost more to go to college, the _ the treasury. it wouldn't cost more to go to college, the money - the treasury. it wouldn't cost more to go to college, the money would | the treasury. it wouldn't cost more i to go to college, the money would be reinvested in the college system. we provide our learners with opportunity, we want the equality of opportunity, we want the equality of opportunity that is given to academies and fee—paying schools and meeting _ academies and fee—paying schools and meeting that priority. let�*s academies and fee-paying schools and meeting that priority.— meeting that priority. let's talk to pe er meeting that priority. let's talk to pepper who _ meeting that priority. let's talk to pepper who works _ meeting that priority. let's talk to pepper who works in _ meeting that priority. let's talk to pepper who works in property - pepper who works in property development. you said you want to see investment in social housing. iterate see investment in social housing. we need more housing across all ten years— need more housing across all ten years and — need more housing across all ten years and all— need more housing across all ten years and all parts _ need more housing across all ten years and all parts of— need more housing across all ten years and all parts of the - need more housing across all ten years and all parts of the sector. | years and all parts of the sector. in years and all parts of the sector. in social — years and all parts of the sector. in social housing _ years and all parts of the sector. in social housing particular- years and all parts of the sector. in social housing particular in - years and all parts of the sector. | in social housing particular in the north-east, _ in social housing particular in the north—east, it's— in social housing particular in the north—east, it's a _ in social housing particular in the north—east, it's a big _ in social housing particular in the north—east, it's a big issue. - in social housing particular in the north—east, it's a big issue. we i in social housing particular in the i north—east, it's a big issue. we are at the _ north—east, it's a big issue. we are at the highest _ north—east, it's a big issue. we are at the highest waiting _ north—east, it's a big issue. we are at the highest waiting list - north—east, it's a big issue. we are at the highest waiting list in - at the highest waiting list in ten years— at the highest waiting list in ten years since _ at the highest waiting list in ten years since 2012. _ at the highest waiting list in ten years since 2012. that's - at the highest waiting list in ten years since 2012. that's where i at the highest waiting list in ten i years since 2012. that's where we need _ years since 2012. that's where we need it _ years since 2012. that's where we need it most _ years since 2012. that's where we need it most-— years since 2012. that's where we need it most. there are rumours of investment — need it most. there are rumours of investment and _ need it most. there are rumours of investment and supporting - need it most. there are rumours of i investment and supporting mortgages from the chancellor that me and my ear later on today, when houses are about, there are widespread calls for the wider economy. the demand side is good. _ for the wider economy. the demand side is good, more _ for the wider economy. the demand side is good, more support - for the wider economy. the demand side is good, more support is - for the wider economy. the demand side is good, more support is good. side is good, more support is good for the _ side is good, more support is good for the economy, _ side is good, more support is good for the economy, but— side is good, more support is good for the economy, but it _ side is good, more support is good for the economy, but it is widely. for the economy, but it is widely expected — for the economy, but it is widely expected that _ for the economy, but it is widely expected that the _ for the economy, but it is widely expected that the supply—side i for the economy, but it is widely- expected that the supply—side issue, the more _ expected that the supply—side issue, the more houses _ expected that the supply—side issue, the more houses in _ expected that the supply—side issue, the more houses in all— expected that the supply—side issue, the more houses in all ten _ expected that the supply—side issue, the more houses in all ten years - expected that the supply—side issue, the more houses in all ten years is. the more houses in all ten years is definitely— the more houses in all ten years is definitely good _ the more houses in all ten years is definitely good news. _ the more houses in all ten years is definitely good news. hot- the more houses in all ten years is definitely good news.— definitely good news. not much win ale definitely good news. not much wiggle room — definitely good news. not much wiggle room for— definitely good news. not much wiggle room for investment -

definitely good news. not much. wiggle room for investment from definitely good news. not much - wiggle room for investment from the chancellor and later, hamish, you would like to see support for unused commercial space as you seek to renovate city centres.— renovate city centres. definitely. it is very common _ renovate city centres. definitely. it is very common in _ renovate city centres. definitely. it is very common in the - renovate city centres. definitely. it is very common in the city - it is very common in the city centre. _ it is very common in the city centre, lots of empty space and commercial units, we are looking to convert _ commercial units, we are looking to convert them into workspaces, bring people _ convert them into workspaces, bring people back together, particularly rural spaces. we are struggling at the minute, we need short—term licenses, — the minute, we need short—term licenses, people are coming in and out monday to friday, week on, month on, out monday to friday, week on, month on. where _ out monday to friday, week on, month on, where business rates are at the minute, _ on, where business rates are at the minute, they're really rigid. we want _ minute, they're really rigid. we want flexibility and a bit of support— want flexibility and a bit of support so we can support rural spaces _ support so we can support rural spaces and — support so we can support rural spaces and get people going and get businesses started.— businesses started. business rates are holdin: businesses started. business rates are holding you — businesses started. business rates are holding you back? _ businesses started. business rates are holding you back? it's- businesses started. business rates are holding you back? it's our- are holding you back? it's our bi est are holding you back? it's our biggest challenge, _ are holding you back? it's our biggest challenge, you - are holding you back? it's our biggest challenge, you can't i are holding you back? it's our. biggest challenge, you can't say it'siust — biggest challenge, you can't say it'sjust one thing a particular, but it— it'sjust one thing a particular, but it is— it'sjust one thing a particular, but it is the biggest one. we are currently— but it is the biggest one. we are currently in _ but it is the biggest one. we are currently in conversation with and that is— currently in conversation with and that is what we need the bigger support— that is what we need the bigger support with. all that is what we need the bigger support with-— that is what we need the bigger su--ortwith. . , , ., ., , support with. all eyes on the house of commons — support with. all eyes on the house of commons at _ support with. all eyes on the house of commons at 12.30 _ support with. all eyes on the house of commons at 12.30 at lunchtime l

of commons at 12.30 at lunchtime waiting to see what we find out. at the moment, there will be a cut in national insurance, 2p freeze on fuel duty, not everyone will be watching, you can be sure of that. what we can be sure of it will affect most people.— what we can be sure of it will affect most people. thank you very much. affect most people. thank you very much- let's — affect most people. thank you very much- let's go _ affect most people. thank you very much. let's go back _ affect most people. thank you very much. let's go back to _ affect most people. thank you very much. let's go back to downing i much. let's go back to downing street and join our political correspondent. this budget comes at a time where the uk economy is in a recession albeit a mild one. there is a lot of ice onjeremy hunt to see what he can do. it is unlikely that he can suddenly turn things around in the short term, but it is the longer term plans are people will be watching. there he is. jeremy hunt coming out from number 11, you can see here, jeremy hunt and the treasury team. they are gathered outside number 11. holding up gathered outside number 11. holding up the red box. as is customary.

that is jeremy up the red box. as is customary. that isjeremy hunt the chancellor in the middle with his red box and his treasury team. a lot of discussion about rabbits. any rabbits in there? is the box big enough? _ any rabbits in there? is the box big enough? ls— any rabbits in there? is the box big enou~h? , ,., any rabbits in there? is the box big enou~h? , ., ., ,., enough? is the box going to win you the election. — enough? is the box going to win you the election, chancellor? _

jeremy hunt knocking to be let back into number11. facing jeremy hunt knocking to be let back into number 11. facing a number of questions about what is on the red box, that red box historically contains the budget document that will have been presented first at the cabinet this morning who met at downing street and nowjeremy hunt will be preparing to go to parliament within the next hour before prime minister's questions, before prime minister's questions, before the budget, and then he is on at 12.30. lots forjeremy hunt. lots of speculation about what elsewhere going to hearjeremy hunt in the budget. there we go, jeremy hunt getting into his car. heading up to parliament to prepare for the announcement. a lot of speculation about what else jeremy hunt announcement. a lot of speculation about what elsejeremy hunt is hiding, interestingly, we have heard, one of the main headlines

already from the budget is 2p cut in national insurance following another 2p earlier in the year, earlier in the autumn statement last year. a lot of questions from reporters here about what rabbits, the surprise element, as chancers usually like to withhold something, hold something back, even if these days we hear a lot of what is going to be announced in advance. chancers do like to have a little surprise up their sleeve and they can say, look, i fed some money down the back of the sofa. a lot of speculation about what that might be. there is talk of changing the threshold for child benefit, that sort of thing. a lot of speculation about whatjeremy hunt will be delivering in addition to all these measures we already know he is going to announce.— all these measures we already know he is going to announce. everyone is askin: , he is going to announce. everyone is asking. you'd — he is going to announce. everyone is asking. you'd use — he is going to announce. everyone is asking, you'd use the _ he is going to announce. everyone is asking, you'd use the analogy, - he is going to announce. everyone is asking, you'd use the analogy, is - asking, you'd use the analogy, is there a rabbit he can pull out of there a rabbit he can pull out of the hat? it is worth reminding our viewers, he is constrained by the

office for budget responsibility, can you explain to our viewers what this organisation is and why the chancellor works according to what their research is? the chancellor works according to what their research is?— their research is? the office for budaet their research is? the office for budget responsibility _ their research is? the office for budget responsibility as - their research is? the office for budget responsibility as an - budget responsibility as an independent body, if you like, that basically does the official forecasts for the government before that existed, there used to be a forecast and by the government itself. that led to claims that the government was massaging the predictions of what the economy we do. this is an independent arbiter thatis do. this is an independent arbiter that is now responsible for producing official forecasts and assessing the impact of what the government's policies are. if you cast your mind back to the days of liz truss, the former conservative prime minister, she derided this office and didn't believe what they were doing, and try to put them at some distance. that did not go down very well. now the office for budget

responsibility is back at the front and centre of what the government is going to be trying to do. they will be producing the official economic forecast of how the economy is going to grow in the next few years and the impact and the cost of what the government are trying to do. that is what we will be presented with alongsidejeremy hunt's alongside jeremy hunt's announcement.- alongside jeremy hunt's announcement. ., . ., alongside jeremy hunt's announcement. ., , announcement. the chancellor is constrained _ announcement. the chancellor is constrained to _ announcement. the chancellor is constrained to some _ announcement. the chancellor is constrained to some extent - announcement. the chancellor is constrained to some extent by i announcement. the chancellor is. constrained to some extent by the guidance? constrained to some extent by the auidance? , ., .,' . ., guidance? they have official projections _ guidance? they have official projections but _ guidance? they have official projections but the - guidance? they have official. projections but the government guidance? they have official- projections but the government is also constrained by its own rules, it has imposed a set of rules on itself about debt, government debt, and it was to get debt falling over and it was to get debt falling over a period of five years, the fifth year the government's rule it must have government debt falling as a percentage of gdp, national income. so there are various constraints, before the chancer came out of number 11, we were discussing the idea of the economy is a bad way.

cast your mind back a few months, they were all sorts of optimism that by this point, by march, the economy would have turned the corner and this would be a big moment for the chance to an end, here we go, the economy is growing again, we have got interest rates coming down, we are in a brave new world the economy. 0bviously, things in the treasury have moved against a chancer, interest rates are very high, the cost of government borrowing has rocketed even since the start of the year. and the economy is officially in recession. the chancellor has found himself boxed in than ideally where he wanted to be. in terms of this election year. there are various constraints. there is a pot of money, a technical term the chancellor uses of how much money has to play with, that has been curtailed and reduced and even within that, the treasury feels like it needs to put aside some of that for a rainy day. we are talking about a few billion here and there in terms of what the chancellor has

to play with and he has already announced quite epic and expensive tax cuts in the form of the national insurance cut by two p. there is going to be other revenue raising measures that we expect to raise bits and pieces here and there to pay for those tax cuts as well as possible further squeeze is on public spending in addition to those that are already pencilled in for the next five years which many people think i'm not realistic and certainly very significant in terms of unprotected government departments. a lot of choices, there is little room for manoeuvre, even within that space, the chancellor will be making political choices and especially so at this budget before the general election, probably the last major fiscal event as we call it here before a general election. yes, the chancellor is constrained, a lot of choices, a lot of decisions, with very real consequences for people across the board. , , " ,, board. outside number11 downing st, “ust a few board. outside number11 downing st, just a few moments _

board. outside number11 downing st, just a few moments before, _ board. outside number11 downing st, just a few moments before, we - board. outside number11 downing st, just a few moments before, we saw. just a few moments before, we saw the chancellorjeremy hunt and his treasury team stand outside the door, he was holding that famous red box which contains, there you can see it again, those budget documents, standing alongside his team. i once had a story about those great budget boxes, they are very heavy. it is quite impressive that the chancellor is able to hold that high, they have a lock on the other side so that whoever is securing the documents doesn't forget to lock the little case. there you have it. the chancellor, jeremy hunt, with his treasury team, standing outside number 11 downing st. ready to deliver the budgets and about 90 minutes from now. his team have already got into their vehicles, they had left downing street, in one hour's time, prime minister's questions will take place as it always does every wednesday, and then at 1230, the chancellor will

take to his feet to deliver this year's budget. joining me now is professor linda yueh who is an economist at oxford university... hgppy happy to have you with us. the sun has come out as soon as you got here as well. there is so much to discuss about the budget, but they one thing that has been trailed and confirmed unusually, head of the budget, is the 2p cut in national insurance. let's start with that. it follows a 2p reduction only last year in the autumn statement which came into effect in january. autumn statement which came into effect injanuary. what is your assessment of that? if it effect in january. what is your assessment of that?— assessment of that? if it is a short-term _ assessment of that? if it is a short-term measure, - assessment of that? if it is a short-term measure, it - assessment of that? if it is a short-term measure, it willl assessment of that? if it is a i short-term measure, it will put assessment of that? if it is a - short-term measure, it will put £900 short—term measure, it will put £900 in the average worker pocket. national insurance versus income tax, the big difference, national insurance is a tax for people who are employed, 27 million people, a sizeable chunk of the population, but it only covers people in work, it is slightly cheaper than income

tax which is the other alternative. the bigger picture i always stress, we are in a recession, the bank of england thinks at this moment, we are no longer in recession, however, we do not have figures to confirm that, you can see how putting more money in people's pockets could help at a time when inflation is high to make sure we are deemed out of recession. the focus i think for a lot of voters including those in his own constituency is whether or not public services will be improved over the coming years, the nhs, businesses want to see more measure to support economic growth, and that ultimately raises the standard of living. the longer term portion of the budget, i think, will be hugely watched because ultimately, yes, we do need to support people today, but given the limited amount of fiscal headroom, not a great term, but the amount of money that he has according to the office for budget

responsibility, he has to allocate and voters will be keen to watch how he allocates between a short—term set of support and then these longer—term measures. for instance, if he were to cut the amount of money going public sector, the public spending amount, that could affect the health service and social care going forward. those are the things to watch today. we could see their vehicle popping up behind us. we have been discussing as well the tax threshold and how they have not changed. my colleague was saying the fiscal drag, effectively, that has meant people had been pay more taxes. 0verall, there may be a 2p reduction in national insurance, but overall, people's tax burdens are higher. overall, people's tax burdens are hither. , , ., overall, people's tax burdens are hither. , , . ., higher. yes, they are. fiscal drag is a funny — higher. yes, they are. fiscal drag is a funny term, _ higher. yes, they are. fiscal drag is a funny term, it _ higher. yes, they are. fiscal drag is a funny term, it means - higher. yes, they are. fiscal drag is a funny term, it means we - higher. yes, they are. fiscal drag| is a funny term, it means we have had 11% inflation in the past year. your amount of money that you make

dishes you into, for instance, the higher income tax threshold, 40p or 45 p. more people have been dragged into the higher level of tax over the basic rate. 0n into the higher level of tax over the basic rate. on balance, the 2p cut is not necessarily going to make up cut is not necessarily going to make up for that. i would also say the cost of living crisis has been so severe, that research shows that for the average person, it's the equivalent of a 4% wage cut. if you think about the 4p cut in your taxes, national insurance is trying to help some of that. that 4% cut in real income is worse than the average recession. it tells you how squeezed people are. in orderfor the government to raise living standards over the longer term, it will still have to come down to measures that raise tax revenues, not because of fiscal drag, but because of stronger economic growth,

and i think that is where some of the policies consistent over a longer term will really matter today. longer term will really matter toda . ~ . ., ,., longer term will really matter toda . . ., ., ., ~' longer term will really matter toda . ~ . ., ., ,, ., today. we heart hearing some talk of tax rises and — today. we heart hearing some talk of tax rises and other— today. we heart hearing some talk of tax rises and other areas, _ today. we heart hearing some talk of tax rises and other areas, tax - today. we heart hearing some talk of tax rises and other areas, tax on - tax rises and other areas, tax on vapes, and business class flights, what more are you hearing about those possible proposals?- what more are you hearing about those possible proposals? there are a number of — those possible proposals? there are a number of possibilities, _ those possible proposals? there are a number of possibilities, he - those possible proposals? there are a number of possibilities, he has - those possible proposals? there are a number of possibilities, he has a l a number of possibilities, he has a small amount of fiscal headroom, the 2p cut in national insurance is going to cost £10 billion, and he only hasjust under £13 going to cost £10 billion, and he only has just under £13 billion of fiscal headroom, he has to back 6 billion of that because, shockingly, for because various. that's what he had 30 billion and today he has less than 13. what can happen? non—dom status could be changed. instead of 15 years, that could be shorter. it is a labour policy. it could raise to two 3 billion. second home owners who do holiday lets, that could be 300 million. there is quite a few there but i would stress however he

is balancing the books, we need to see whether or not it's supported. we will be back with you later. for the moment, thank you very much for sharing your thoughts and analysis. you can hear big ben in the background, that will take us to 11 o'clock. you're watching bbc news. welcome to bbc news. you can hear a big ben ring out across westminster. the sun is starting to people out as well. in about 19 minutes, we will hear from the chancellorjeremy hear from the chancellor jeremy hunt. hear from the chancellorjeremy hunt. he has already arrived in the parliament as he prepares to deliver his spring budget at 12:30pm today. he will outline the tax and spending plans. the chancellor is expected to announce another cut to national

insurance contributions. the reduction of 2p in the pound will come on top of an identical cut which came into force injanuary, something he announced last year. you can see there earlier, just as he was leaving number 11 downing st, there is the chancellor holding that famous red box, standing alongside his treasury team for that annual photo moment ahead of the budget. this all comes at a time when the uk economy is in a recession, albeit a mild recession stop we are living through a cost of living crisis. inflation has stabilised but it is still double the government's target of 2%. the chancellor has a challenge on his hands and it is not just the economics of course, this is the tickle as well because this is the tickle as well because this is going to be the last budget

before the next general election.