of foreigners that are here. i think there's a lot the immigration population can bring to a country. at the last election, the government promised to reduce immigration. but it didn't go down. it went up. they say one thing and do another. i and this has been the situation for years and years and years. i i think it's one big bloody- mess, to be honest with you. when it comes to immigration, right now, one issue dominates. one of my top priorities as prime minister is to stop the boats. you may have the impression it's small boats that have driven a record rise in net migration. they haven't. while the issue is important, in the context of overall immigration, the numbers are tiny. it's not small boats behind the increase. it's choices made by the government.

i am not going to shy away from the truth that is the government did take steps to actually increase inward migration. it's the inevitable consequence of government policy. - so why has the government said one thing on immigration and done another? to understand what's really going on with immigration, i want to start in norfolk. you're going to go back to the lunch. the docking house care home looks after 39 residents, many of them with dementia or other complex needs. we have to make, you know, activities for them, you know, their hygiene, their nutrition, their wellbeing. meenu is from india and is a senior care worker. and we have to do all their personal care, you know, make them feel good.

meenu's been working here for eight months while her husband and two children remain in india. i want to give them good life, good values, good education. and i thought, 0k, we need money also, you know, for living. because of rules that allowed care workers to bring dependants, meenu's family willjoin her in may. i'm excited. and they too excited, you know, because one day my daughter asked me, "when are we going to reunite?" so we are going to reunite, and that dream is going to be very soon. yeah, so bought the place in 2002. this care home is one of five owned by raj sehgal. he says brexit and the pandemic

made finding and keeping staff a real problem. two years ago, instead of the 130 staff raj needed, he had 77. we are in the job centres, we go to the schools, we go to job fairs. in care, we just simply could not recruit. and as a result of that, we had to start shutting down beds. there you go. so 35% of our beds were shut. we couldn't get the staff to look after the people that we had safely. thank you! raj and other care home owners campaigned to make it easier to employ overseas care workers. in 2021, the government agreed. right now, 40% of raj�*s staff are from abroad. he's filled almost all of his vacancies. if we didn't have international recruitment, we didn't have the staff that we've got, i think we would probably be closed by now. in england last year, there were around 150,000 job vacancies in adult social care. raj�*s daughterjasmine now runs an agency helping to find staff for their care homes and others. we started getting asked by other providers, - what are we doing? how are we doing it? and why are we suddenly fully

staffed and they are _ struggling? professor brian bell is the chair of the independent committee of immigration experts, which advises the government. in december 2021, it recommended allowing more overseas ca re staff. it also said the government should fund higher pay to encourage more british workers. we said the only way to deal with the problem in the long run was to pay care workers properly. two years after we submitted our report, we've had no response from the government and care worker pay hasn't changed. if they'd bitten the bullet and done the right thing for care workers, they would have also have had an effect on immigration. the government says it's investing in better training and clearer career paths for care workers. after brexit, most people coming to work or live in the uk need a visa. last year, the government

issued more than 1.4 million visas. 146,000 of them went to health and social care workers. another 203,000 went to their dependants. combined, that was around a quarter of the 1.4 million visas. they're big numbers and, to the care sector, they've made a big difference. but after brexit, they may not be what you expected. what's happened with immigration feels a long way from 2016. vote leave and to take back control. take back control. we can take back control over our immigration system. talking about taking back control of immigration was a very clear dog whistle. i don't think we could be under any illusions — for a lot of voters,

when they heard control, they heard reduction of numbers as well. three years after the vote to leave the eu, the conservative party made a pledge. in 2019, the conservatives�* election manifesto promised that overall immigration numbers would come down. but the numbers went up and we've seen a record rise in net migration. that's the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving each year. in 2015, the year before the brexit vote, it was 303,000. the latest estimate is 672,000 — more than double the figure when the uk voted for brexit. the uk now had more control of its immigration system, but the government used that control to allow more people to come to the uk. how did that happen? suella braverman was rishi sunak�*s home secretary until he sacked her last november. there's no two ways about it. we have failed to reduce overall migration. - would you say then that brexit has failed to

deliver on immigration? no, i would say that government has failed to lower migration. . we've taken back control- of our borders, but how we've exercised that power is totally at odds with what the people i expected following brexit and what we promised i in the 2019 general election. the government, though, sees things quite differently. what do you think happened between taking office after the 2019 election, and now, that we've seen a large spike in immigration? what's responsible for that? we have lived in unprecedented times. when you consider the context of the international crises that we have played our part, i think rightly in responding to, we've seen incredible generosity in our country to people from ukraine, people from afghanistan, people from syria and other conflict zones.

that is an important part of why we've seen the figures as they are. it is important, but it's not the only reason for the record rise in net migration. in 2022, the government issued almost 300,000 humanitarian visas to people from places like ukraine and hong kong, but last year it fell to 102,000. that's just 7% of the 1.4 million visas issued. so it's far from the full story, because the government has made other choices that have pushed up the numbers. coventry is one of the uk's fastest growing universities and 40% of the students at its uk campuses are from overseas, like these sports science students. is it too tight? no, that's fine. 0k. tuition fees for uk undergraduates at english universities are capped by the government at £9,250 a year. and then, yeah, i will start now. that hasn't risen for seven years, but costs have, leaving some universities

with financial challenges. 2.2kmph. here at coventry, like many universities, they've been targeting overseas students to help them balance the books. that's great. overseas students pay considerably more than a uk student, and that then cross—subsidises the uk undergraduate fee. we don't see any prospect right now of that increasing. and in order to maintain the outstanding quality of uk higher education, more universities have put more effort into international student recruitment. i know for this course work that time is very limited. if tuition fees for universities were raised, it could reduce the need for overseas students. but that would cost a lot. and it hasn't happened.

with regards to education, would you say the government has also there made a choice for immigration? yeah, of course it has. so it decided to introduce fees for domestic students at about £9,000, and then it also decided not to increase them. that's a choice of the government not to fund education in a particular way. the inevitable consequence is more immigration. can you hop onto the first plate? the government couldn't have been clearer that it wanted more students from abroad. it even set a target of an overseas student population of 600,000 by 2030. one, two... push, push, push, push, push, push, push, push, push! the target was met nine years early. stop. the message over the last 10—20 years is that international students add huge value to uk higher education.

so you feel that you're doing what the government would like you to do? absolutely. three years ago, the government reintroduced a graduate work visa, allowing overseas students to work for two years after their course finishes. once more, the government hadn't taken the advice it was offered. the committee recommended that there shouldn't be a graduate route. we were concerned that that would become a route for people who wanted to work in the uk rather than for people who wanted to study in the uk. we recognise the arguments were finely balanced so it wasn't a, you know, we weren't particularly vehement in our view, but that was our view that we recommended. the government decided to introduce the graduate route. that meant more migration. the visitor centre looks good to me. but, anyway. for postgraduate students, the uk was also attractive because they could bring dependants. aparna golla is from india. she's just finished a master's degree in global health care at coventry and wants to open a clinic back home. so, i cannot get that kind of education in india. indian health care is like completely different from what we see in any of the western countries. so that was a driving

factor for me to choose a, you know, to study abroad ratherthan in india. aparna came to the uk with her husband, whose work helped support her. we both came in and then he started working and i started studying. so it sounds like the fact that you could bring your husband was a majorfactor in choosing the uk. definitely. that's the most important factor for me, because obviously i wanted to completely give my 100% to studies. last year, the government issued more than 457,000 visas to students and more than 143,000 to their dependants. together, they made up nearly 42% of the 1.4 million visas issued last year. as the consequences of the government's own policies became clear, it slammed on the brakes. in may last year, it announced that most overseas students would no longer be able to bring dependants.

we see around many countries in the world that immigration tends to be a trial and error kind of exercise. it's actuallyjust incredibly difficult to predict how many people are actually going to take up your immigration policies. sometimes it's much larger than the government expects. the government's changes are already having an impact. some universities are seeing a sharp drop in applications from overseas students. it's a source of frustration, because what we would like is stability of policy. they're quite entitled to make adjustment. i understand that. i wish that they would make the adjustment that they are doing in a more measured, thought—through way. any loss of overseas student income could pose a financial risk to some british universities. do you accept that if the number of students from overseas is reduced to a certain level, the government will have to step in with a change to the funding model?

i think what we've gotj to accept is that some universities may well go bust, they may well close, - and i don't think that'sl necessarily a bad thing. in march this year, the government also ordered a review of the visa that allows students to stay on and work — the visa it had introduced three years ago. the government took a view that we thought that that was the right thing to do to support the university sector. but when you consider the dependent numbers that have come with students, that has been very, very challenging. do you accept that overseas students are playing a crucial part in the financial equation of how that sector works? i think international students are an important part of the business model of our universities, but there are also other factors that we have to think about as the uk government. it's notjust students and care workers that have contributed to the net migration figures.

these systems here will make the machines work more efficiently. down the road from coventry university is ccs technology. it works with some of the biggest employers in the midlands, like jaguar—land rover and airbus. so, this is a new type of robot we're working with. we're in the process of partnering with bosch to launch this. mark fursland runs the company, which is exactly the kind of high—skilled business that the government wants to thrive. five of his eight software engineers are from overseas. recruitment and the availability of engineers is the biggest challenge we have in our business today. the government has encouraged businesses to hire more british workers, but that's only possible if the skilled workers are here. are you finding engineers here in the uk?

we do find engineers here in the uk, but they're few and far between. there is a skills gap, and at the moment, the only way we can fulfil those gaps is by bringing in engineers from overseas. do you think you could grow your business as you want to without immigration? no. we couldn't fulfil our roles and responsibilities for oui’ customers. skilled workers outside of health and social care received almost 66,000 visas last year, along with 52,000 for dependants. that accounts for around 8% of the total 1.4 million visas. if businesses are to use more british workers, that means more vocational training. the government has set new targets to increase skills, but the uk is playing catch—up. the uk is not very good

at all at training people, particularly with technician skills, craft skills, vocational skills. we have fewer people doing that kind of training than almost any other developed country. and that's been true for a long time, and that does mean that we have sometimes filled those gaps with people coming in from elsewhere. the uk's population is projected to reach 74 million by 2036, almost entirely driven by immigration. that's an increase of more than 6 million people. that is five birminghams. that's thousands of schools, i many hospitals, and hundreds of gp surgeries that l we simply don't have. many more homes are going to need to be built. - so i think it is a national. disaster, because we don't have the resources.

when your parents moved to this country, and when many people at the same time moved to this country, some people were raising similar concerns. why was it something that benefited our country then, and something which is harming our country now? my parents are but one example of millions of people who have l over the decades found i opportunity and security in the united kingdom. i'm very proud - of that track record. but what i'm talking about here is scale, | not the principle. public services are already under pressure, not least because of a spending squeeze that's lasted more than a decade. and some argue, overall, immigrants don't add pressure, they help to ease it. on average, immigrants pay more tax than they use, in terms of public services. they're younger than the average for the domestic population, they use the health service less, and so on. neil o'brien is a conservative mp in leicestershire. he claims, across the uk, housing is being impacted by immigration.

the sheer pace of that - and the incredible number of people who have come, well, that puts pressure on both- housing and infrastructure. so it means that we have much higher rents, that it's harder. to afford a house, that many people are stuck in crowded housing. and, at least across the last 14 years, there have been conservative prime ministers who perhaps could have done more to get more houses built? so, i think we should have both done more in terms of housingl supply and also done more to reduce migration. - but what impact does immigration have on housing? since 2011, the population here in leicester has grown by more than 40,000, mostly because of immigration. most new migrants tend to rent. in the last two years, rental prices in leicester have risen by more than 20%. here in leicester, immigration is going up, and rents are going up. the question is, whether one is causing the other.

good morning. readings, abbie speaking. how i can help? will ravenhill has been an estate agent in leicester for 35 years. he says immigration has increased demand, but it's not the main reason for rising rents. if you're asking whether that's put the pressure on rents and made rents increase, i don't think it has. there's less rental stock around at the moment, private rental stock. we've had a lot of landlords exiting the market over the last couple of years or so. and, obviously, we've seen that the rise in interest rates over the last 12—18 months or so has had a big impact on newer landlords, because they're finding that their mortgages have increased phenomenally, which then obviously has a knock—on effect for tenants. immigration may cause a small increase in house prices. there's been little research into its impact on rents. what's certain is immigration is far from the only pressure on housing.

we've got problems with the planning system, problems with our capacity to build additional houses. very high levels of immigration will put more pressure on that system, clearly. but the fundamental problem isn't the change in population. the fundamental problem is a broken housing policy. so, has the record rise in net migration shifted public opinion? we're a reasonably small island. - i think we've got i too many people. i'm quite happy with immigration for people who come here and give an input and a value to the society. there might be a little bit of a strain, but if it weren't for letting people in the country, britain wouldn't be where it is. we are where we are because of the people that have come to this country as immigrants. the think tank british future tracks uk attitudes to immigration. it shared its latest opinion poll with panorama.

for the first time in four years, the poll suggests a majority of us, 52%, want overall immigration to fall. and 69% say they're dissatisfied with the government on immigration. that's the highest since 2015. the public are losing _ confidence in how governments are handling immigration — . seven out of ten people think they're doing a bad job. half of them think they need to get a grip and would - like to see it coming down. another quarter are _ dissatisfied because they think the language is too tough and the policies are too . harsh on migrants. half of those who say they're dissatisfied with the government's handling of immigration point to small boats. we've seen a big focus in the media on it that, i think, has probably created the impression that much, or most migration comes on small boats, which obviously it doesn't. small boats matter, both on a human and a national level. last year, around 30,000 people crossed the channel

by small boat. to put that in context, also last year, the government issued those 1.4 million visas for people to come to the uk legally. suella braverman says, when she was home secretary, the prime minister was far more concerned with small boats than with overall immigration. i think the prime minister has not necessarily assumed that| it's an important issue for the british people. j i struggled myself, - as home secretary, to even have a meaningful conversation with him about it. _ i was left to written - correspondence on several occasions throughout. a period of 12 months, putting forward policy- proposals, but he refused to talk to me. so, you're holding one of the great offices of state, you're home secretary, and the prime minister doesn't speak to you for 12 months? so, we talked about the boats

every week, twice a week. - we talked to each other a lot about policing and security. i on legal migration, - i was unable to get a hearing with the prime minister for 12 months. - number ten declined to comment. do you think the government is overemphasising small boats over legal migration, which is happening because of government policy? we have a clear plan on both fronts. i think there's a massive moral imperative for ministers and their teams in their departments to grip that issue. we are doing that. it's right that we place an emphasis on that, but that is not at the expense of also getting on and delivering on the mission around legal migration, which is to get a better balance to bring those numbers down. i think that that is in line with what people across the country think is right. labour declined an interview, but says net migration needs to come down, and that a practical plan is needed to tackle skills shortages. last year, as the consequences of the government's own immigration policies became

clear, it began to backtrack. i'm very clear that the levels of migration are too high. i and they've got to come down. i think there's a limit to how long you can go on saying, "oh, my god, immigration numbers are too high," without accepting the fact that they're too high because of policies that you've devised. and i think there is an element of dishonesty in the government at one at the same time implementing these policies and bemoaning them, or bemoaning their impact. last year, the government announced plans to cut net migration by reducing the number of people coming to the uk by 300,000. that would take the numbers back towards where they were just before the brexit vote. one of the new measures stops care workers bringing their dependants. can you see a difference

already because of what the government's done? we are already getting people asking whether they can bring their families or not, and we're saying not after march 11. so they're withdrawing their application, or withdrawing their interest. after the record rise, net migration is expected to fall. but if it does, the longer term challenges it's been easing may come into sharp focus. if you want the universities to have as much money as they have at the moment, without those foreign students, you need to find some money from british students, or the british taxpayer. if you want care homes to be staffed, without bringing people in from elsewhere, you're going to have to pay more. you have to make choices here. for this government — for any government — these choices involve difficult and sometimes expensive

trade—offs. but are politicians of all parties being straight with us about what these choices involve? it's very easy to allow people to come to the country. the other choices that you can make sometimes involve spending a lot of money. i can't think of an example of a high—profile politician saying out loud, which is, "if we want much lower levels of net migration, "it's going to cost a lot of money." and that — you know, quite understandably — is a difficult thing for politicians to say. but it would be true? yeah, absolutely. the government says it's committed to getting more british people into the workforce and into the uk's 900,000 job vacancies. it says brexit has given it the control to deal with the challenges it faces. the key thing is we now- have the measures and dials and the levers that we need to be able to pull to - have the ability to be able - to bring those numbers down. issues have arisen — - we've responded to those issues. we've got a credible plan . to deliver on that cut in net migration, and that's precisely what we're going to get - on and do. there are, though, powerful

factors pushing the other way — our population is ageing, our birth rate is falling, our economy is struggling to grow. despite all the promises, this government chose more immigration. it's unlikely to be the last to do so.

good morning.

welcome to breakfast with rogerjohnson and naga munchetty. our headlines today: political leaders say stability in northern ireland won't be affected by the arrest and resignation of the dup leader, sirjeffrey donaldson, after allegations of rape and historical sex offences. british troops drop more aid parcels over gaza. the ministry of defence says more than 20 tonnes of essential aid has been delivered this week. a major teaching union says staff are facing what it calls �*dystopian levels�* of work—related stress. in sport, it's official. former wales rugby star louis rees—zammit has signed for the back—to—back super bowl champions, the kansas city chiefs. and there will be fewer showers and a little _ and there will be fewer showers and a little more — and there will be fewer showers and a little more sunshine _ and there will be fewer showers and a little more sunshine and _ and there will be fewer showers and a little more sunshine and it- and there will be fewer showers and a little more sunshine and it shouldl a little more sunshine and it should feel a _ a little more sunshine and it should feel a touch — a little more sunshine and it should feel a touch warmer. _ a little more sunshine and it should feel a touch warmer. i— a little more sunshine and it should feel a touch warmer. i will- a little more sunshine and it should feel a touch warmer. i will have - a little more sunshine and it should feel a touch warmer. i will have the full easter— feel a touch warmer. i will have the full easter weekend _ feel a touch warmer. i will have the full easter weekend forecast - feel a touch warmer. i will have the full easter weekend forecast here l feel a touch warmer. i will have the i full easter weekend forecast here on breakfast _

it's saturday, the 30th of march.