i'm stephen sackur. israel, backed by the us and other allies, showed just how effective air defences can be when faced with a missile barrage from iran. imagine, then, how ukraine is feeling right now. day after day, russia is targeting ukrainian cities and infrastructure with missiles and drones. kyiv�*s air defences are too few, too depleted to neutralise the threat. my guest is former ukrainian prime minister arseniy yatsenyuk. is air defence a symptom of a wider malaise, that ukraine lacks the backing it needs to defy russia's war machine?

arseniy yatsenyuk in kyiv, welcome to hardtalk. thanks for having me, stephen. here's a very simple first question. do you feel that ukraine right now is going through its bleakest moments in this war since your country survived that initial russian onslaught in late february 2022? we are at a critical juncture, no doubt, stephen, you're absolutely correct. so we survived two years ago due to an unbelievable resolve of the ukrainian people and due to the real unity among the western world. as of now, the mood is different, but i still believe that we have the chance to prevail. but we need an enormous effort that

needs to be undertaken mainly by our western allies. so the mood is different, but chances for ukraine to prevail and to survive are very high. all depends on the actions. spirit and morale are very important in war. just tell me what impact the missile strikes on ukrainian cities like kharkiv, like chernihiv — where we've seen the death toll rise beyond a dozen — what impact do those strikes — and they're happening day after day — the impact on ordinary ukrainians�* morale and spirit? well, russian military sent every day barrages and salvos of ballistic missiles, iranian—made drones, shahed, on different areas of ukraine. you just mentioned chernihiv, it was 100 miles from kyiv,

but every single city, every single village is under severe attacks of the russian air systems and ballistic missiles. so, the mood, it definitely severely affects the mood on the one hand, but on the other hand, look, every human being, we started to...used to these kind of challenges. the main thing which is in the mind of every single ukrainian right now is whether the western world can supply anti—missile and air defence system for ukrainian people. cos what happened in israel is an unbelievable and a perfect example of unity in the western world. so the western world managed to fend off the barrage of more than 300 missiles that have been launched by iranian regime. let me remind you that this year, in the course of five days, russians launched 500

projectiles against ukraine. so, on the one hand, we're used to this, but on the other hand, how can you use... ..how can be used to the loss of life of ordinary civilians? how angry are you feeling right now? you just pointed up that comparison with what the us and other allies did to directly intervene to help israel neutralise that missile barrage from iran. and when you look close to home at the lack of direct intervention to help you stop the missile barrages from the russian side, how angry are you? the anger is not the best way how to win the war. so we are very realistic, on the one hand. 0n the other hand, i would like to call our western friends and our western allies to repeat the same unity, unprecedented unity,

that have been managed in the first days of an orchestrated...in the first days of full—fledged invasion of russia against ukraine. so... but with respect, the allies you talk about clearly are not listening or don't care, because it's not as though the message you are sending right now with me is new. you have said many times, as has your president zelensky — and he said it againjust in the last few days — that for every single shell fired by ukrainian forces, the russians can fire at least five and often times ten in return. mr zelensky made a point of saying that when the power station at trypilska was knocked out, your air defences had seven missiles which could take out the russian incoming barrage, but after seven, they ran out. and the next incoming russian missiles completely

destroyed the power plant, which has knocked out electricity to a huge area around kyiv. the allies know all of this. it seems they don't care enough. they have to care about the free world. about whether the autocracy and totalitarian regimes will take over this world, as this war is much more bigger than just the war about the existence of ukraine. and i would once again reiterate that this is an existential threat to the ukrainian people and to the ukrainian nation. the allies did a lot in the last two years. it was an unprecedented unity and huge amount of both financial and military resources that have been given to the ukrainian people, but as of now, what i see, i see a kind of dysfunctional democracy among a number of western allies. so... and putin, and not only putin,

but axis of evil that are represented by russia, iran, north korea — and china is somewhere behind the scene — they are closely watching and monitoring. so it's up to the western world to decide whether we are together and we can win this righteous war for the democracy and liberty in the world, for actually...for the remnants of the global order or war criminals like putin will win and will take over the world. but again, with respect, it's not just about the functioning or lack of democracies and systems in the west. it's also about a strategic vision, and it was made plain after the us—led allies intervened on behalf of israel, that they saw that action as fundamentally strategically different from what they can do to help ukraine. lord cameron, the british foreign secretary, said, "imagine britishjets shooting down

russian drones and missiles. "that," he said, "would lead to a dangerous escalation." and one us state department official, matthew miller, went further. he said, "it is in the interests of the american people that we not be involved in a direct armed conflict with russia. we do not want world war iii." that fear of escalation is fundamental, isn't it, to the way the west is responding. first, i will say that lord cameron deserves the credit when he paid his way to dc to try to convince american political leadership to support ukraine, but i completely disagree that these are different cases. and i will tell you the reason why. look, iran represents an axis of evil. iran is just weak. it needs just one week for iran to get enriched uranium, and i don't know whether iran has a nuclear weapon or no.

that's what bloomberg just reported. no, but the point is we do know that moscow has the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world. and that is a factor you can never change, and it does matter in london and it matters in washington. so i want to reiterate once again, and we do know that iran has capability to get nukes. and i am not sure whether they already got these nukes or no. so iran has ballistic missiles, iran has shaheds, long—range ballistic missiles, up to 2,000km. iran is a belligerent state, similar to russia. the only difference is russia already invaded an independent country. russia already violated the un charter. russia tries to annihilate ukraine. and in this particular case, it's up to the western world to decide what kind of world, what kind of global order we want to see in the forthcoming future.

but you seem to be deliberately missing my main point, which is that in washington, there is and remains absolutely no desire to risk a serious further escalation with putin and with moscow. you know better than i do that the vice president, kamala harris, and the national security advisor, jake sullivan, have both told zelensky in the last few weeks to back off from ukraine's drone strikes against russia's oil refinery and oil and gas assets, because, again, the americans are so worried about, quote unquote "escalation". so, going back to oil refineries, russian oil refineries are completely legitimate targets. and it has nothing to do with the spike of oil prices. yeah, but... i know what you think. i'm trying to understand whether you understand washington right now or whether you're failing to understand them. i'm trying, stephen, to explain you where we stand.

so, on the issue of avoiding the escalation, my political history and my political experience says that if you try to avoid an escalation, what you can do in the best—case scenario is to postpone the escalation. but in the end, you're going to face a full—fledged war. and that's what happened with ukraine. let me remind you that in 2014, a number of our western allies asked not to escalate when russia illegally annexed crimea. what happened in the end? russia actually conquered more than 18% of ukrainian territory, and russia posed a threat to the entire free world and the entire western world. so, uh, it is better not to avoid escalation, but it is better to fight, not to give, uh, tyrants any chance to undermine this world. you're a... and i believe... and i believe that the americans do understand this.

right. so explain this to me, then. i mean, you're a former prime minister. you're a very networked ukrainian. there you sit with your 0pen ukraine foundation, your kyiv security forum. you know american politicians well. and you know that if the biden administration is replaced by a trump administration and by people around trump, politicians on capitol hill like marjorie taylor greene, who backed donald trump, you know that the problems ukraine faces in the us today are going to be exponentially worse come next year. why do you think the republican party is so keen to stop funding assistance to ukraine, and appears to be quite happy for vladimir putin to emerge from this war with, quote unquote, a success, at least some territory taken from ukraine? well, we still benefit from the bipartisan support in the us congress.

what you are talking about right now, you are talking not about the reagan—style gop. you are talking about a minority of maga republicans, um, that are clearly interlinked with the former president trump. uh, so... he may win the election in november. we have no idea. well, there's democracy. but you must... ..you must think about that possibility. and i wonder whether you've drawn conclusions about why trump and many of those around him appear to hold a view of this war, and what should be the outcome, that runs diametrically opposed to your strategic vision. i was astonished with the comments of a few, just a few, house members of the united states congress that are close to the maga republicans. but i was inspired by thejoint claim of three house republicans, three key house republicans — the chair of intelligence committee,

armed services committee, and, uh, another military committee, who actually asked the house to pass legislation which is needed to support ukraine. so i want to reiterate, once again, we still rely on bipartisan support. second, uh, it's not just about ukraine. this is about the leadership positions of the united states of america and this security aid package, uh, of $60 billion. it works definitely in the interest of the national security interests of the united states of america. only $8 billion goes directly as a financial support to the ukrainian budget. so it is about where the united states of america stands. it is about whether the us is the leader and the flagship of the free world. and i still believe that the us will hold this position. the same happened before... right, you want to believe that but you don't know

that and neither do i. day by day, the situation changes on capitol hill. but let us be straight with each other. if you do not get new, substantial us aid — you talk about the $60 billion package that biden put on the table. if you don't get it, will ukraine lose this war? and could it lose this war by the end of 202a? no. let me put it bluntly. without the best in support, chances of ukraine to prevail in this war are very, very, very low. period. and this is the joint fight for the democracy and actually for the survival of the ukrainian state. so, once again, it all depends on the unity of the western world and whether the western world is ready to fight for ukraine. because ukraine is fighting for the western world and for the values of the western world. we don't ask... well, we would be happy to see military boots

on the ground in ukraine, but at least, we urge our western friends to supply weapons to ukraine, to give the ukrainian military the real tools to win this war. give us the tools and we will fight... just one more thought on this. because i want to turn to internal affairs in a second. but one more thought on this. if the us doesn't come up with the assistance package you want, do you have any confidence that the europeans could fill that hole? let me put it bluntly. i'm not sure that the european union right now is capable of filling the gap. and that means you don't take too seriously, then, emmanuel macron, who says nothing is off the table. he even suggested at some point that possibly french european troops could be seen in ukraine. you don't believe there's been a serious mind shift in europe? well, the good thing is that president macron at least articulated this.

but actions matter more than words. so i believe that the european union is to ramp up its military production to supply everything that is needed for the ukrainian military to fight. and france, which is right now the seventh, if i'm not mistaken, in the rank of those who support ukraine will raise at least to the set position. so i believe that president macron will do his utmost to help ukrainian military. everything we've discussed does underline just how bleak the ukraine situation is right now. given that context, how are you going to — and others in the political class in kyiv — how are you going to persuade ukrainians that they should sign up and fight in this war, when you've just said to me that if the american assistance package doesn't come through, it is extremely difficult to see how ukraine succeeds on the battlefield?

this is one of the reasons why the us assistance is urgently needed. and the same goes with the european union assistance. but would you accept that right now you have a massive mobilisation problem and your government doesn't appear able to solve it? if you don't have shells, if you're outmanned and outgunned, it's difficult to incentivise people to be mobilised. but still ukrainian people show very strong resilience and resolve to fight. so what we are asking right now, we are asking for the tools, and these tools will definitely boost the morale of the ukrainian people. so this is the recipe. that's what's on the table. there's a huge controversy in your country about whether those who enlist should be given a finite period of active service. the new legislation avoided ensuring that nobody serves more than three years before being rotated out.

many families of those currently serving, who have had no break since february 2022, say that if you do not give a term limit to fighting service, more and more young ukrainians will do everything in their power to avoid joining up. do you see the problem? well, it's definitely, you know, it is important to launch a huge and large—scale public awareness campaign to incentivise people to be mobilised. so it is correlated and interlinked with the western military support. the more ammunition we have, the more tanks and artillery we have. the more tools to fight we have, the better chances for people not just to survive, but to win in this war.

in terms of the term, the new draft, the new bill has been enacted by the president, and there would be a separate bill, on the recommendations of the general staff, which will set the term limits. so we expect that the draft bill will be in the house as soon as possible. let's talk about president zelensky. his popularity ratings are falling. according to a recent survey, citizens�* trust in government institutions has also fallen in ukraine. trust in the parliament is falling. as the war goes on, as it becomes more difficult, there are signs of real fractures and cracks in ukraine's national unity, aren't there? well, president zelensky still holds a very high popularity rate. and the country, which is at the state of full—fledged war, managed to retain the unity. and that's unbelievable.

but much will depend on, uh, further... ..developments on the front lines. here's the mayor of kyiv, vitali klitschko, and something he said not long ago. "at some point, if we carry on the way we are with more and more centralisation of power under wartime emergency measures, more centralisation in and around zelensky�*s office, at some point we'll be no longer any different from russia, where everything depends on the whim of one man." do you see that as a danger? but we are completely different from russia. in ukraine, we had six presidents. in russia they had just one president, yeltsin, because, president putin inherited the office of the president of russia after yeltsin. so ukraine is a full—fledged democracy. i understand that. i understand the point you're making, but i also understand that the elections, which were due to take place this spring, are not going to take place. so in a sense, mr zelensky is going to become a sort of acting president

without a new democratic mandate. and as i talked about, the people inside politics in kyiv who worry about the overcentralisation of power, can you not see that ukraine may enter very difficult political territory? the biggest challenge for ukraine is to survive, and this is the main task for every ukrainian, to defend our statehood. in terms of ukrainian democracy, ukraine is a full—fledged democratic state. and let me remind you that we had three revolutions. so, it's our dna code to be free. and that's the reason we are fighting for our homeland and against the russians. in terms of legitimacy of president zelensky, i am not a fan of president zelensky, but i am to defend the institution of the presidency of ukraine. he is not an acting president and won't be an acting president. he is a completely legitimate president till the next president

is to be elected and take the oath of the office of the president. a final question, because we're almost out of time. when we last spoke in the weeks after february 24th, 2022, you said, quote, "we will have victory or death. this is an existential issue." are you now, more than two years later, prepared to say to me, there may have to be something less black and white than victory or death, that there may, in the end, have to be some sort of painful deal done with moscow that involves concessions? ukraine will prevail in this war. ukraine will get nato and eu membership. the free world is to win this righteous fight. there is no other option on the table, stephen. and this is ourjoint fight for the future of the humanity. i am not exaggerating. we have to end there. arseniy yatsenyuk, i thank you very much for being on hardtalk.

thank you, stephen. hello. slowly but surely, the weather is going to turn a little bit drier, but not an awful lot warmer as we head towards the end of the week. high pressure is tantalisingly close — sitting to the west of the uk, but still far enough away that weather systems can move in around the top of that area of high pressure — bringing cloud, bringing outbreaks of rain. that's exactly what we're going to see through the day on thursday ahead of that cold, frosty start, but we will see some spells of sunshine. that will hold on across southern counties of england, but further north, it's a story

of increasing clouds, some outbreaks of rain. rain for a good part of the day across scotland, some patchy rain for northern ireland. temperatures just a little bit up on where they have been recently, eight to 15 degrees. now through thursday night, we'll see clouds and increasingly light and patchy rain pushing southwards. behind that, a northerly wind kicks in — a mix of clear spells and showers to take us into the first part of friday. so this weather system easing its way through, clearing southwards with northerly winds behind. you can see quite a few isobars squeezing together on the chart, particularly across the north east of scotland. so here it is going to be windy through the day on friday, particularly around some coasts. it's a day of sunny spells and showers. some of the showers could be on the heavy side, perhaps the showers most frequent across the eastern half of the uk, not as many showers further west. temperatures, six to eight degrees in northern scotland, elsewhere, 11—15 degrees. now into the weekend, this area of high pressure finally makes its move building across the uk.

but brisk winds still affecting eastern coastal counties with potentially quite a lot of cloud, maybe even some showery rain. best chance of any sunshine out towards the west. that's where we'll have the highest of the temperatures, up to around 13, 1a degrees. but it will actually be quite chilly for some eastern parts, particularly for north sea coasts. now, as we get into sunday, again, we'll see clouds, some showery rain perhaps spinning a little bit further west this time. the lowest temperatures always closest to these north sea coast, maybe some places stuck in single digits, 11 for newcastle and for hull. but further west, with some sunshine, northern ireland could see the highest temperatures, 16, maybe 17 degrees. nothing particularly warm in the outlook for next week. 0ften dry, there will be some showers.

welcome to newsday, reporting live from singapore, i'm steve lai. the headlines.. israel's prime minister insists his country will make its own decisions about how to respond to iran's drone and missile attack at the weekend i want to be clear, will make our own decisions on our own, and the state of israel will do what it needs to defend itself.

a russian missile kills 17 and wounds more than 60 in — chernihiv — in northern ukraine, according to emergency services. a new conscription drive in myanmar has prompted thousands of young men to flee the country. the bbc has met some of those escaping the draft by travelling to thailand. live from our studio in singapore — this is bbc news. it's newsday. welcome to bbc news — broadcasting to viewers in the uk and around the world and we start with israel's prime minister, he has insisted his country will make its own decisions about how to respond to iran's drone and missile attack at the weekend. benjamin netanyahu also has continued concerns regarding the situation in gaza — and it comes in the form

of a post on x in the past few hours from joe biden —