welcome to the programme. we are nowjust over five weeks away from the european parliamentary elections. between the 6th and 9th ofjune, millions of people across europe will be heading to the polls to elect 720 politicians to the european parliament. for some it may not feel like of the more consequential elections this year. but what happens injune could have enormous influence on the domestic politics in many of these same countries. and sowhere is that argument more relevant than in country and nowhere is that argument more relevant than in country we are heading to tonight — france. in this series so far, on our visits to spain and to the netherlands the trend has been much the same. the hard right looks set to have a major influence on the next european parliament. right now marine le pen�*s, national rally is on 32%, according to the latest le mond poll, they are 15 points ahead of

president macron�*s ruling coalition. these days however some the loudest cheers come not for le pen, but for the party's more youthful president, jordan bardella. the paris—born leader of the party has become a household name in french politics and over a relatively short period of time. his popularity could steer the french far right to its biggest win yet, in a nationwide election. so what is it, that is driving that support? we have sent our correspondent hugh schofield to the cathedral town of sens, 100 miles south—east of paris, to find out. they're on a roll and they know it. today, the national rally is so far ahead in the french polls that their biggest worry is supporters like these taking a massive victory for granted and not turning out. that's why the party's president has come to this market town. selfie hell, of course,

but all for the cause. this is the new face of france's far right. jordan bardella is personable, popular, but above all, very young. and atjust 28, he's leading the national rally in these elections to new heights. circumstances are helping. inflation is hurting. 0ut here in the provinces, president macron is unpopular. and now there's been a run of atrocious stories of violence among immigrant communities, in schools. in the paris suburbs, a 15—year—old shamsa din was beaten to death, seemingly by the brothers of a teenage girl, angry that she was in contact with him. the case is not unique. for the national rally�*s newest star recruit, it translates into a crying, popular demand for authority. fabrice leggeri is no outsider. he's former head of the eu's frontier agency frontex. immigration, he says, is a factor in many of these cases of violence. this is a cultural clash.

the fact that some boys, 15, wwell, teenagers, consider that their sister shall not talk to a boy. that this is a matter of honour and this is not part of our culture. in france it's not part of our culture, i'm sure. nowhere in the in continental europe or in the uk. back on the campaign trail in the town of sens, i asked jordan bardella where he thought the violence was coming from. translation: there's i a new savagery in society, which means you might be attacked anywhere because you're not wearing the right kind of clothes or because you're in the wrong place at the wrong time. and now this violence is affecting institutions of the state like schools. jordan bardella's answer is to get tough. increased penalties crack down on illegal immigration. many, it seems, would agree. hugo schofield, bbc news

in sens, central france. 0ur panel with us — dr catherine fieschi — comparative political analyst and fellow at the european university institute. and, dr nathalie tocci — director for the institute of international affairs in rome. thank you for sparing us some time. if i could start with you, a question of where will the far right perform best in the selection. we would expect a surge in france, more than perhaps in any other country, why? what is going wrong for president macron? i why? what is going wrong for president macron?— why? what is going wrong for president macron? i think there is a number of issues. _ president macron? i think there is a number of issues. first _ president macron? i think there is a number of issues. first is _ president macron? i think there is a number of issues. first is what - president macron? i think there is a number of issues. first is what the l number of issues. first is what the far right unfortunately has done relatively well. it it has mainstreamed itself, it has grounded itself quite a bit of credibility in the matter it has comported itself in the national assembly where they have 88 mps. so this is what they have 88 mps. so this is what they have done which i think are

attracting some voters. they are looking more and more like an ordinary party. this is something that all of the polls and surveys have bear out. the other thing that matters here particularly with respect to these european elections is two things, one is that president macron�*s popularity is in the doldrums and the party of marine le pen and jordan bardella the way they talk about these issues, these are populist parties whose rejection of the elite, in combination with really low popularity for president macron is creating a perfect storm. finally, i think there is the gerber issue. and of course the european elections and european institutions really are a sweet spot for a party like the national rally. they have driven an environmental agenda which

has drawn criticism. they are making the most of this backlash we are seeing against the european green deal and very easy to depict the european union and its institutions and its elites as disconnected, technocratic, the kind of politics that are a far cry from the kind of proximity and popularfuel that are a far cry from the kind of proximity and popular fuel that marie le pen and jordan bardella bring to the floor. i marie le pen and jordan bardella bring to the floor.— natalie, i want to show our viewers what president macron is up against. these are figures from the eurobaromter. comparing french attitudes towards the eu in other european countries. it is the question of whether voters are optimistic or pessimistic about the future of the eu. within all 27 countries the average score is 61%, who say they are optimistic. but look down the end there france, in last position, 42%, a four point drop since the autumn.

and that same disconnect extends to the questions of trust in these same institutions. in the eu, in their own national parliament and in their own government, they have less faith, that would be typical in other european country. why, why is it more pronounced in france? it is interesting because indeed, had there been a it is interesting because indeed, had there bee— had there been a sharp divide between mistrust _ and european institutions and strong trust in _ and european institutions and strong trust in national institutions than it would — trust in national institutions than it would be a easy european store to explain _ it would be a easy european store to explain but — it would be a easy european store to explain but basically what these numbers— explain but basically what these numbers point to is something which indeed _ numbers point to is something which indeed explains why at least partly why the _ indeed explains why at least partly why the right is so strong in france is that— why the right is so strong in france is that france has a very strong

anti-elitist. _ is that france has a very strong anti—elitist, anti—establishment undercurrent. it has traditionally been _ undercurrent. it has traditionally been very— undercurrent. it has traditionally been very strong. it coexists with the fact— been very strong. it coexists with the fact that this is another reason why the _ the fact that this is another reason why the right is so strong, it coincides— why the right is so strong, it coincides with the fact that it is also _ coincides with the fact that it is also a — coincides with the fact that it is also a currency that believes in sovereignty. so the idea of sovereignty. so the idea of sovereignty as an important concept, the role _ sovereignty as an important concept, the role of— sovereignty as an important concept, the role of public institutions. so on the _ the role of public institutions. so on the one — the role of public institutions. so on the one hand you the very strong national— on the one hand you the very strong national and — on the one hand you the very strong national and european institutions, but at _ national and european institutions, but at same time every strong demand for more _ but at same time every strong demand for more public institutions, be they— for more public institutions, be they national or be they supranational. and i think both of these _ supranational. and i think both of these things are really quite specific— these things are really quite specific to france which probably explains— specific to france which probably explains alongside a number of other factors, _ explains alongside a number of other factors, the _ explains alongside a number of other factors, the way in which marine le pen has _ factors, the way in which marine le pen has basically been trying to portray— pen has basically been trying to portray herself as someone more

moderate, — portray herself as someone more moderate, distancing herself from her father— moderate, distancing herself from her father with his auntie... she moderate, distancing herself from her father with his auntie. . .- her father with his auntie... she is uuite her father with his auntie. .. she is quite liberal— her father with his auntie... she is quite liberal on _ her father with his auntie... she is quite liberal on gender _ her father with his auntie... she is quite liberal on gender identity - her father with his auntie... she is quite liberal on gender identity on | quite liberal on gender identity on social media. she quite liberal on gender identity on social media.— social media. she is. i will say that there _ social media. she is. i will say that there is _ social media. she is. i will say that there is the _ social media. she is. i will say that there is the italian - social media. she is. i will say that there is the italian in - social media. she is. i will say that there is the italian in me | that there is the italian in me coming — that there is the italian in me coming out here is that we never quite _ coming out here is that we never quite know— coming out here is that we never quite know what is the mask and what is the _ quite know what is the mask and what is the face _ quite know what is the mask and what is the face underneath it. i think one thing — is the face underneath it. i think one thing you need to do in order to -ain one thing you need to do in order to gain popularity and become a mainstream party that can eventually wind in _ mainstream party that can eventually wind in the _ mainstream party that can eventually wind in the case of france, a presidential election when the time comes, _ presidential election when the time comes, and another thing that is what _ comes, and another thing that is what you — comes, and another thing that is what you actually believe in and what _ what you actually believe in and what you — what you actually believe in and what you do with power. i remember when i interviewed, _ what you do with power. i remember when i interviewed, over _ what you do with power. i remember when i interviewed, over ten - what you do with power. i remember when i interviewed, over ten years . when i interviewed, over ten years ago, back then, she would talk about brexit and then of course britain beat her to it. now they don't talk about frexit. it what do they want,

they were to return to the european party as the biggest party, but what they want and who would they align with? ,, ., , ., ., they want and who would they align with? ,, .,, ., ., _, , they want and who would they align with? ,, .,, ., ., , ., with? she has learned a couple of lessons, with? she has learned a couple of lessons. but _ with? she has learned a couple of lessons, but i _ with? she has learned a couple of lessons, but i think— with? she has learned a couple of lessons, but i think that - with? she has learned a couple of lessons, but i think that natalie i with? she has learned a couple ofj lessons, but i think that natalie is absolutely right. what is reality and what is the mask. 0ne absolutely right. what is reality and what is the mask. one thing that is quite clear particularly in this european campaign where she knows that her photos certainly do not want a pull—out of the euro and many of her voters really do not want a frexit. so what they have done is actually really not set very much. they are letting the other sides score own goals and they are really keeping their pronouncements very, very low—key. it is very vague what they are advocating. but what we do know is that what we are likely to see if they are returned to the levels that we expect, it's probably something that is closer to the

behaviour of a victor or bond —— 0rban than an actual exiting of the european union. i think what the national party has come to terms with is that the idea that they would want to shake you from the inside which is some what more dangerous for europe because they are not alone in this. there are the 0rbans and other across europe who really do want this access in order to transform the european union from the inside. we think that they would still be potentially part of what is considered the more radical far—right group in the european parliament, identity and democracy, rather than ecr, but there is a sense in which marine le pen and jordan bardella no that their best

card to play is to negotiate within the european union. whether that is actually to obtain policy changes, or even just to block what they really don't want to see happen. we have talked about them being recognised as the official opposition now in france. when i was there years ago it was the ump and socialists who were the two main parties with marine trade to get a look in. as president macron in part to blame for that. he is the alternative to fascism in france but has in doing so has he made them the official opposition? can has in doing so has he made them the official opposition? cami has in doing so has he made them the official opposition?— official opposition? can i 'ust commentfi official opposition? can i 'ust comment on i official opposition? can i 'ust comment on something h official opposition? can i just comment on something that| official opposition? can i just - comment on something that catherine said which— comment on something that catherine said which is i think incredibly important. i think she's absolutely i’ilht important. i think she's absolutely right when— important. i think she's absolutely right when she says that a danger of actually— right when she says that a danger of actually not adopting frexit agenda as opposed to going for the exit option— as opposed to going for the exit option is— as opposed to going for the exit option is actually much greater. we should _ option is actually much greater. we

should not— option is actually much greater. we should not be saying this on the bbc, _ should not be saying this on the bbc, but — should not be saying this on the bbc, but as sad as brexit was, the eu was— bbc, but as sad as brexit was, the eu was fine — bbc, but as sad as brexit was, the eu was fine-— bbc, but as sad as brexit was, the eu was fine. are you saying that at a time when _ eu was fine. are you saying that at a time when we _ eu was fine. are you saying that at a time when we need _ eu was fine. are you saying that at a time when we need greater- a time when we need greater integration in europe, in order to deliver on energy, on intra— structure, on technology, you would have parties within pulling it further apart and returning powers to national governments? i will further apart and returning powers to national governments? i will put it in an even _ to national governments? i will put it in an even more _ to national governments? i will put it in an even more radical- to national governments? i will put it in an even more radicalway. - to national governments? i will putl it in an even more radicalway. what it in an even more radical way. what is actually— it in an even more radical way. what is actually a — it in an even more radical way. what is actually a parent is a huge need, of can— is actually a parent is a huge need, of can a _ is actually a parent is a huge need, of can a fascist european union exist? — of can a fascist european union exist? and _ of can a fascist european union exist? and i thought about it and well, _ exist? and i thought about it and well, a _ exist? and i thought about it and well, a fascist europe can't exist, it has— well, a fascist europe can't exist, it has existed in the past and no one can — it has existed in the past and no one can guarantee it will not happen again _ one can guarantee it will not happen again a_ one can guarantee it will not happen again. a fascist european union is a fact to _ again. a fascist european union is a fact to leave — again. a fascist european union is a fact to leave a contradiction in itself — fact to leave a contradiction in itself the _ fact to leave a contradiction in itself. the european union is an intrinsically liberal project. if you were _ intrinsically liberal project. if you were to have jordan bardella in france _

you were to have jordan bardella in france and — you were to have jordan bardella in france and so on, the european union would _ france and so on, the european union would no _ france and so on, the european union would no longer exists. will france and so on, the european union would no longer exists.— would no longer exists. will come to that in the second _ would no longer exists. will come to that in the second half _ would no longer exists. will come to that in the second half of _ would no longer exists. will come to that in the second half of the - that in the second half of the programme but obviously president macron made an important speech last week. but answer that final question if you would, and quickly, president macron, has he lifted the rally into a position they could only imagine some years ago? i a position they could only imagine some years ago?— some years ago? i don't think we should pull— some years ago? i don't think we should pull put — some years ago? i don't think we should pull put the _ some years ago? i don't think we should pull put the blame - should pull put the blame exclusively on president macron but the fact that he has repeatedly said that he is the only thing standing between france and fascism, has in fact enshrined national rally into an official opposition in some ways. i really don't think it is solely his doing, but i don't think his stance of the past seven years has helped. stance of the past seven years has heled. ., , ., helped. coming up we will examine president macron's _ helped. coming up we will examine president macron's emissions - helped. coming up we will examine president macron's emissions for i helped. coming up we will examine | president macron's emissions for the eu. he says the entire project is at risk unless the eu reforms and defences independence

the united states and china. but if the answer to that is, �*more integration', just how difficult will that be if the hard right are the victors injune. we will be right back.

president macron is now into his second term. he cannot run for a third. and as we have already discussed, in the first part of the programme, the big question then is who will follow him. these upcoming european elections could elevate le pen, and the national rally to first place. setting her on the path to the presidency when france next votes in 2027. last week in a speech at the sorbonne university, president macron struck a sombre tone. he sees the rising threat of nationalism, in russia, in europe, the isolationism in the united states and the strategic threat from china, and he wants eu to respond. but what would that look like? sophia betizza has been taking a look. emmanuel macron wants europe

to become an assertive global power. and to understand his vision, let's have a look at a major speech that he delivered last week where he warned that the death of europe is a real possibility. translation: europe is mortal, it can die. i in the next decade, the risk of being weakened, of being relegated, is immense and we are not equipped to face the risk. a pretty bleak outlook. so what does the french president think that europe should do? well, he laid out a series of new proposals on two key areas defence and economy and trade. so let's look at defence first. macron is warning that europe faces an existential threat from russian aggression. and because of that, europe needs to increase

preparations for war. and crucially, he says that europe should become an independent military power. so that it could, if needed, go to war without the help of the us. so what would that look like? well, he said that europe should develop a new long range missile strike capacity, that it should build a proper european air defence system, and that it should create a european military academy. so on the fence, his ideas would change the way that the eu operates. now, what about the economy and trade? well, macron says that europe risks falling behind economically, and he points the finger at the united states and china. he's accused both countries of failing to respect the rules of global trade. he is calling for a much more aggressive trade policy to defend european interests.

he also wants the eu to invest in a range of critical areas and those are climate, energy and technology transitions. so essentially the clue is in the slogan behind him, which says, a powerful europe. he wants europe to become an economic powerhouse, more united and more self—sufficient. now, some of his views are shared by other eu countries as well as the european commission. but as we know, the eu is made of 27 different countries with different priorities and alignments. so his ambitions for big change will be tempered by europe's political reality. in some senses, he is now the oldest statement in place to make the sort of debate he did last week at the

university but i wonder how it lands on the doorstep. you are in campaigning mode at the moment and we have already talked aboutjordan bardella and marine le pen and also this retail politics that they are very good at. they identify groups, drill down into what they want and deliver a message that fits. these broader strategic thoughts that president macron has, is that what people are voting on? it’s president macron has, is that what people are voting on?— people are voting on? it's in question- — people are voting on? it's in question. if— people are voting on? it's in question. if you _ people are voting on? it's in question. if you actually - people are voting on? it's in| question. if you actually look people are voting on? it's in . question. if you actually look at the polling, what is it that people think— the polling, what is it that people think the — the polling, what is it that people think the eu should be doing, well actually— think the eu should be doing, well actually it— think the eu should be doing, well actually it is precisely the issues that president macron has identified. the problem when it comes— identified. the problem when it comes to — identified. the problem when it comes to elections is that often european — comes to elections is that often european elections included are national— european elections included are national elections. so people are actually— national elections. so people are actually not voting on what is it that you — actually not voting on what is it that you should be doing in policy terms _ that you should be doing in policy terms. there are basically voting the sign — terms. there are basically voting the sign of— terms. there are basically voting the sign of approval or in this case disapproval—

the sign of approval or in this case disapproval of their national leadership. in this case president macron's — leadership. in this case president macron's. so in policy terms, president _ macron's. so in policy terms, president macron is putting out the kind of— president macron is putting out the kind of ideas that poll after poll the public including the french public— the public including the french public would support and i would add to this, _ public would support and i would add to this, and — public would support and i would add to this, and perhaps it is a paradox _ to this, and perhaps it is a paradox. if you were to ask a right wing _ paradox. if you were to ask a right wing party, — paradox. if you were to ask a right wing party, if you want to ask marine — wing party, if you want to ask marine le _ wing party, if you want to ask marine le pen what is it that you should _ marine le pen what is it that you should be — marine le pen what is it that you should be doing in the next political— should be doing in the next political institution or cycle, probably should also be talking about _ probably should also be talking about industrial policy and defence. the flag _ about industrial policy and defence. the flag is, — about industrial policy and defence. the flag is, if you are to have more right—leaning europe, is that europe actually, _ right—leaning europe, is that europe actually, it— right—leaning europe, is that europe actually, it may agree in general terms _ actually, it may agree in general terms that— actually, it may agree in general terms that doing defence and industrial policy is a good idea, but is _ industrial policy is a good idea, but is actually going to be willing to put _ but is actually going to be willing to put two part european money which is essentially entails growing the european budget, basically making it a budget— european budget, basically making it a budget worthy of the name, is going _ a budget worthy of the name, is going to — a budget worthy of the name, is going to move in that more

federalist direction. well, clearly not. federalist direction. well, clearly not i— federalist direction. well, clearly not. . ., , not. i am more interested in the mone . not. i am more interested in the money- they — not. i am more interested in the money. they have _ not. i am more interested in the money. they have just - not. i am more interested in the money. they have just brought i not. i am more interested in the - money. they have just brought back the stability pack back after covid and member states have rules governing deficits. germany has a debt break written to the constitution now and they are up againstjoe biden who is pouring billions into the green revolution and china which is backing all its companies with state money. it is not a fair playing field, is it? how does the european union of alden reform if it cannot on investment? this was precisely president macron's point in his speech. also the point made by a report released only a couple of weeks ago about european innovation and it is a point that is going to be made by

the woman pre—presenting a report on competitiveness. all three sources are basically saying that europe needs to invest more on technology, more in green technology and it needs to give itself the means to be a power player. i think what we heard from president macron in his speech was not necessarily new. we know that he once more, a bigger budget, he wants, to some extent, more common debt. and we know that this puts him somewhat on a collision course with some other member states and in particular, germany. but i think one of the things that came out through the speech was the sense of urgency. it was a stark speech. saying europe is mortal. in other words, was a stark speech. saying europe is mortal. in otherwords, it was a stark speech. saying europe is mortal. in other words, it is there for us to lose. and we may find ourselves in a situation where we are weekend, where our autonomy is

reduced simply because we do not make these decisions now. i think theissue make these decisions now. i think the issue of the money is absolutely crucial and, as natalie said, we are not on a path with the result of both these european parliament elections, but also in terms of the shape of the european council. in other words, the council that brings together the european heads of government and heads of state will stop we are not on a path that is going to be conducive to that. in fact we are going to see more sovereign is him and in a sense, i think, a path that is more inward looking. so very much not what president macron was calling for. taste president macron was calling for. we are pressed for time. two quick questions. it strikes me as ironic that this is identity that we have spoken about tonight. the french believing they are losing their sovereignty and identity yet ironic that marine le pen, sorry, president

macron is trying the world stage right now. if the chinese president in paris alongside ursula von der leyen, perhaps there is no one beating in europe quite like president macron. the french are leading. what is at the french don't see. . �* , , ., see. that's the thing. there is not much competition. _ see. that's the thing. there is not much competition. there - see. that's the thing. there is not much competition. there is - see. that's the thing. there is not much competition. there is a - see. that's the thing. there is not much competition. there is a real| much competition. there is a real scarcity— much competition. there is a real scarcity of— much competition. there is a real scarcity of leadership in europe these _ scarcity of leadership in europe these days and president macron has repeatedly tried to play that international card to shore up domestic— international card to shore up domestic support. it does not really seem _ domestic support. it does not really seem to _ domestic support. it does not really seem to have worked. why is this the case? _ seem to have worked. why is this the case? i_ seem to have worked. why is this the case? ithink— seem to have worked. why is this the case? i think we really go back to the anti—elitism which, in a sense, the anti—elitism which, in a sense, the international is intense to validate _ the international is intense to validate. so although the french would _ validate. so although the french would like to see france in the lead of europe, — would like to see france in the lead of europe, the minute that internationalist car display, the

the anti—globalist bakhmut kicks in. i the anti—globalist bakhmut kicks in. i don't _ the anti—globalist bakhmut kicks in. i don't have — the anti—globalist bakhmut kicks in. i don't have time for the second question but i know both of you will come back onto the programme and talk about this plenty in the next few weeks. this time next week we will be taking this bandwagon. this time next week we will be take this bandwagon to bella roma. to natalie backyard. we will be talking immigration and emmigration in italy. what does the newest generation of voters think about europe — and the opportunities it affords them. join us for that. same time next week. hello there. the southerly breeze brought the warmer air further north across the uk today, mainly for eastern areas where we had the dry weather and the sunshine. further west, it was a different story because as you can see from the satellite picture,

we've had much more cloud and that's been bringing some rain as well. this cloud, though, continues to threaten the southeast with a few showers and those could run their way northwards up these eastern coastal areas up towards the north east of england. further west, though, the cloud will tend to thin a bit — the rain tending to die out in many places, becoming dry. misty, low cloud, though, could develop in eastern scotland, perhaps north east england. temperatures on the mild side and it may well be a little bit warmer than last night in the southeast. we've got some cloud and some showers coming across northeast england into eastern scotland. further west, it's going to be a drier and brighter day with some sunshine, just the odd shower. a few showers breaking out in the midlands ahead of this rain that's developing here in southern parts of england. but for western areas, those temperatures will be higher than today — 18 in the northwest of england and western scotland. it's going to be cooler in eastern scotland and northeast england, especially where it stays grey and misty. with some warmth further south, though, and that rain coming in from france, we've got the risk of some thunderstorms for a short while on wednesday night. more likely southern

england and south wales, could be some large hail and some gusty winds. most of that rain then clearing away. we've got that weather front stuck across southern areas — and to the north, the easterly wind is continuing to pick up. now that is going to bring some warmer air from the continent. trouble is, it's moving over the cold north sea, where sea surface temperatures are only 8—9 celsius. so it's going to keep it cooler around north sea coasts, and there could be some mist and low cloud around it as well. but otherwise, we'll see some sunshine coming through. the cloud taking a little longer to break up here in the southwest after the overnight rain. and we could trigger a few sharp showers across those central areas. many places will be dry on thursday. it's going to be warm through the midlands, northwest england, and northern ireland this time, making 20 celsius in western scotland. still cool into friday for eastern scotland, maybe a few showers here, and some more wet weather developing across england and wales, pushing northwards, bringing some

thunderstorms into northern england. that will drop the temperatures here. we could get some sunshine in southern england. the highest temperatures, 20 celsius, again will be in western scotland. hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. translation: we will enter rafah | because we have no other choice. | we will destroy the hamas

battalions fair, battalions there, we will complete all the objectives of the war, including the repatriation of all our abductees. a military assault on rafah will be an unbearable escalation, killing thousands more civilians and forcing hundreds of thousands to flee. our focus right now is on getting| a cease—fire and hostages home. that is the most urgent thing. and it's also, i think what is achievable. i they are unable to operate the university at a time when the students are preparing for theirfinal exams. it's unfair, it's unright, it's unsafe and it must stop. so we called for the police to come in and take care of it. if they are unable that we need the national guard, we have to have control of campuses. returning to the panel tonight the emmy nominated journalist and broadcaster caroline modarressy—tehrani and the political consultant and commentator leon emirali.