good afternoon, i'm geeta guru—murthy and welcome to this bbc local election special. the bbc�*s polling expert john curtice has said he expects labour's sadiq khan to win the london mayoral election by around ten percentage points. this would give him a record third term as the mayor of london. there is speculation about a declaration from city hall in london taking place some time this afternoon. we are still awaiting results in greater manchester and the west midlands, where the conservatives will be hoping andy street can cling on. and we are also expecting results from a the remaining handful of councils yet to declare, as well as police and crime commissioners. let's get some analysis on the results that have come through overnight. our political correspondent, nick eardley, is in the newsroom. it's been a busy few hours. where

are we now?— it's been a busy few hours. where are we now? yes, the big story so far this afternoon _ are we now? yes, the big story so far this afternoon is _ are we now? yes, the big story so far this afternoon is from - are we now? yes, the big story so far this afternoon is from the - far this afternoon is from the capital, london, where sadiq khan is in a really good place. let me show you the latest up—to—date numbers, which show that the incumbent is on 560,000 votes, just about. susan hall, the conservative, is on 386,000, that's about half the constituencies having counted. that is a big lead. i should say that the areas we've had in, some of them are very proud labour. but the thing that really matters here, that makes us think it is a slam dunk for sadiq khan is this. the swing that we are seeing across london from the conservatives to labour. it's been slightly different in different parts of the city, but overall, the average at the moment, 3.7% swing

from conservative to labour. remember, sadiq khan won last time so if he was going to be beaten by susan hall, there would need to be a swing the other way, but it looks like he is on course for a really quite comfortable victory with about ten percentage points at least between the two by the end of the day. there are a lot of results still to come from london, we will bring you them as we get them, but to be honest, that says it all, it's pretty much a done deal. i should point out we don't have any figures yet from the west midlands which is why we are not doing that, but that is the other really big result we are watching for in the next few hours. that's london, that's west midlands. let me bring you up to date on the national picture across england. 106 of 107 councils declared, we will not get the other today so this is as close as we will get to the full picture on saturday. as you can see, labour up 185 seats, they are pleased, they think the places they are winning are the places they are winning are the places they are winning are the places they need to win if they are

going to form a majority government at a general election, so there really please. you will notice that the lib dems are ahead of the conservatives in terms of the result from thursday. slightly more complicated than that, i will explain a second. they are cock—a—hoop, they are up 105. really bad, down 472. quite the cataclysmic 500 losses we were talking about over the past 2a hours. but not far off it, they have lostjust under half the seats they are defending. with putting out as well, 73 seats have been gained by the greens, they are really happy in this show is a bit of a breakthrough moment for them. after some pretty promising local election results recently. there is the vote share, conservative stan twell, labour up three. i want to end on this. projected national share. this is important for backing out of the strength of the parties. i said that the lib dems were second in terms of

thursday, still in the projected national share their herd, the projected national share is formulated by the bbc team led by john curtice and it looks at the country as a whole and says if the country as a whole and says if the country as a whole and says if the country as a whole had voted, and had it voted along the same lines as the people who voted on thursday, this is what we think the country would look like. slightly complicated because scotland didn't vote, northern ireland didn't vote. but there reason i want to flag this up but there reason i want to flag this up is because that 25% is the joint lowest figure the tories have ever had in the bbc projected national share at a local election. that is bleak for the conservatives. the lead for labour 9%, a little over what it was last year. 34% is good, labour are happy. it's not quite tony blair in 1997, but labour are adamant that something that shows they are in a good place and they think they are on track for power.

nick early, are you getting messages from conservative mps and contacts saying, you know, they are going to move against sue nack or they're not going to move against rishi sunak, as it seemed to to be destroyed this morning? 0bviously things are volatile. mi; morning? obviously things are volatile. y ., , morning? obviously things are volatile. g ., , ., , morning? obviously things are volatile. y ., , ., , ., morning? obviously things are volatile. g ., , ., , ., , volatile. my money would be on rishi sunak being — volatile. my money would be on rishi sunak being safe, _ volatile. my money would be on rishi sunak being safe, i _ volatile. my money would be on rishi sunak being safe, i think _ volatile. my money would be on rishi sunak being safe, i think there - sunak being safe, i think there probably will be some questions raised over the next week, some concerns perhaps about certain policies. there is a big question about london, for example, where the tories took a lot of heart from winning the uxbridge by—election on that and ulez, proscar agenda. a bit of a question about whether that works, given what we are seeing is a whole with sadiq khan doing better than he did last time. but my sense is that sadiq khan wins london, that is that sadiq khan wins london, that is another good result for labour, west midlands all to play for, and the picture as a whole is bad for the picture as a whole is bad for the tories. bad for the tories but

not to the extent that people start to move against the prime minister. as we talked, i got another result for you. as we talked, i got another result foryou. it as we talked, i got another result for you. it hasjust as we talked, i got another result for you. it has just come as we talked, i got another result for you. it hasjust come in in the last few seconds. it is moving quickly. brent and harrow, another area where the conservatives expect to do well, they've done all right, they beaten sadiq khan. susan hall on 66,000, sadiq khan and 58,000. there are the percentages for you. that's how it has changed since last time. so actually, a bit of a curveball, a labour to conservative swing in brent and harrow, one of those areas that's in outer london, it suggests, it is one of those places where ulez would have been a factor, maybe a bit of a glimmer of hope tories wondering if there is any parts of london where they can do well. but it doesn't change the overall picture, we still think sadiq khan is going to win. bier? sadiq khan is going to win. very interesting. _ sadiq khan is going to win. very interesting, it _ sadiq khan is going to win. very interesting, it is _ sadiq khan is going to win. very interesting, it is officially changing all the time. we can take you to manchester now, and andy

burnham has won the greater manchester mayoral race. mi burnham has won the greater manchester mayoral race. all our ounu manchester mayoral race. all our young peeple _ manchester mayoral race. all our young peeple have _ manchester mayoral race. all our young people have a _ manchester mayoral race. all our young people have a path - manchester mayoral race. all our young people have a path in - manchester mayoral race. all our young people have a path in life. manchester mayoral race. all our i young people have a path in life and hopein young people have a path in life and hope in the heart. my new plea to westminster is to give us the powers to free ourselves from the grip of the housing crisis and let us build a terrific system that helps people move forward rather than holds them back. after these elections and all the dust has settled, what will stay with me are the words from one of those parents in the neighbourhood centre in harper hey. joe, who spoke at a debtjustice event centre in harper hey. joe, who spoke at a debt justice event that centre in harper hey. joe, who spoke at a debtjustice event that dan was at's, she made the best speech that i heard in this election campaign. we look to politicians, she said, to make difficult decisions which will ultimately benefit the whole of our country, both now and in the future.

we need you to speak at our voice and never give up, challenging the inadequate benefits system and the punitive sanctions from the dwp, fighting for better wages and fairer living costs. this is your debt to us. this is the price of your power. those were jo's words us. this is the price of your power. those werejo's words and recognise and accept that price, jo. as i said to you, i'm going to put the words on my office wall, and perhaps everyone who has stood in these elections around the country should do the same. we all need to reconnect power with the promotion of the common good rather than what we have seen in recent times, the association of power with corruption and lies. and with that nod to the great new order have a close by saying this. i'm ready to fight harder than i have everfought for

anything before for a greater manchester where people can live free from the fear of debts, hunger and eviction, and where everyone is set up to be part of the growing success story that is our city region today. greater manchester will continue to lead the way and we will continue to lead the way and we will do it together to stop thank you so much for your support. i look forward to getting on with the job again immediately and i will not let you down. thank you very much, everybody. studio: andy burnham re—elected as the mayor in greater manchester. 0f the mayor in greater manchester. of course, he has been a very well—known figure, a lot of attention during the pandemic and previously an mp of course. john curtice, obviously unexpected victory there for andy burnham, but one can not take anything for granted in this game. the voters have spoken in manchester. the? granted in this game. the voters have spoken in manchester. they have indeed. interestingly, _ have spoken in manchester. they have indeed. interestingly, the _ have spoken in manchester. they have indeed. interestingly, the vote - have spoken in manchester. they have indeed. interestingly, the vote is -

indeed. interestingly, the vote is down by a little and last time, by three or four percentage points, down by a little and last time, by three orfour percentage points, but his conservative opponent saw their vote fall by nine percentage points, so in practice there was still a little bit of a net swing from labour, from conservative to labour. but consistent with what we've been seeing in all these mayoral contest, we are seeing swings to labour, three, four, five, six, 7%. this will require to pick up the west midlands is 5% so the results for getting outside the west midlands, and we can bring back some information from sully hall that there was a 5% swing there, you can see why we are all absolutely uncertain. —— solihull. if the conservatives get it it looks as though it might be very close. if labour get it also looks if it is going to be very close. perhaps both sides might be wise not to trumpet too much if they manage to win. i

doubt if they will necessarily take that advice! i doubt if they will necessarily take that advice!— doubt if they will necessarily take that advice! i 'ust want to bring in tracy arabin — that advice! i just want to bring in tracy brabin who _ that advice! i just want to bring in tracy brabin who has _ that advice! i just want to bring in tracy brabin who hasjust - that advice! i just want to bring in tracy brabin who hasjust won - that advice! i just want to bring in tracy brabin who hasjust won in l tracy brabin who has just won in west yorkshire. tracy brabin who has 'ust won in west yorkshire._ tracy brabin who has 'ust won in west yorkshire. they should be no sto -|n~ west yorkshire. they should be no stepping anyone — west yorkshire. they should be no stopping anyone from _ west yorkshire. they should be no stopping anyone from fulfilling - stopping anyone from fulfilling their_ stopping anyone from fulfilling their potential, where the sky is truly— their potential, where the sky is truly the — their potential, where the sky is truly the limit. thank you. studio: _ truly the limit. thank you. studio: sorry, we came to that rather late, we will find that speech and play it back to you later. tracy brabin winning in west yorkshire. again, these are labour areas but again, i don't know whether you have had a chance to see the numbers in west yorkshire, what do they look like, john? taste the numbers in west yorkshire, what do they look like, john?— do they look like, john? we have uuite a do they look like, john? we have quite a substantial _ do they look like, john? we have quite a substantial swing - do they look like, john? we have quite a substantial swing to - do they look like, john? we have i quite a substantial swing to labour, of the order of 10% from the conservatives. i think tracy brabin at the moment is perhaps winning the prize for the best swing for labour in these mayoral elections. but certainly, she's done a remarkably

—— she's done remarkably well and i'm sure she will be very happy with this result. again, labour demonstrating in all these mayoral contests, around liverpool, around sheffield and now in west yorkshire, we had a lot of talk in the wake of the 2019 election for the conservative party was sweeping labour away from its traditional territory. welcome of course we have acknowledged shouldn't make too much of these metro mayoral contests but the truth is, labour's group on local government in much of the north of england has been very much remaining solid in the wake of these results. ~ ., remaining solid in the wake of these results. ~ . , . . results. what might explain that tracy brabin _ results. what might explain that tracy brabin result? _ results. what might explain that tracy brabin result? because - results. what might explain that. tracy brabin result? because again, i don't to make too much of it yet, but there has been a lot of talk about whether they were not completely happy with the labour party condition on the gaza israel question and that part of the country does have a lot of muslim

population in the cities. i country does have a lot of muslim population in the cities.— population in the cities. i would su: est population in the cities. i would suggest two — population in the cities. i would suggest two possibilities. - population in the cities. i would suggest two possibilities. one i population in the cities. i would | suggest two possibilities. one is population in the cities. i would i suggest two possibilities. one is a think should be careful, you can promote literature, you're right, there are areas where there are very substantial muslim populations, but as a proportion of the whole of west yorkshire as it were, some reluctance perhaps about voting for labour, it is good to be quite heavily diluted so i'm not sure we should necessarily expect labour to be doing particularly badly as a result in this part of the world. tracy brabin perhaps, she now been re—elected, we've been talking previously about how, why did andy street do so well? because he is the covenant he uses to promote his personal popularity. same for ben houchen. we have seen steve rotheram presenting good results. without expecting sadiq khan to improve his position compared with 2021. we may

well discover that these are elections for incumbents and it is certainly incumbents who can use the position utterly to protect themselves but also to advance the interests of the community, the part of england, because that after all is the crucial part of the job. if voters say they are effective in doing that, it will succeed in getting to vote for there. so doing that, it will succeed in getting to vote for there. 50 iii doing that, it will succeed in getting to vote for there. so if you are running _ getting to vote for there. so if you are running a _ getting to vote for there. so if you are running a campaign, _ getting to vote for there. so if you are running a campaign, next- getting to vote for there. so if you j are running a campaign, next time you choose candidates for whichever party have a bit of national profile? party have a bit of national rofile? ., . , , party have a bit of national rofile? ., . , . ., . profile? not necessarily national, but above all _ profile? not necessarily national, but above all a _ profile? not necessarily national, but above all a willingness - profile? not necessarily national, but above all a willingness to - but above all a willingness to promote the interests of the community. if you are an mp from the area and you've previously been known to be vocal on back a citrusy, well and good. if you're somebody who has been parachuted in from london, even if you are an mp, he will not necessarily go down so well. is will not necessarily go down so well. , ., will not necessarily go down so well. , . ., ., , . will not necessarily go down so well. , . ., . ., will not necessarily go down so well. ., . ., . well. is a tough 'ob that one. we are well. is a tough 'ob that one. we waiting — well. is a tough 'ob that one. we are waiting for — well. is a tough job that one. we are waiting for the _ well. is a tough job that one. we are waiting for the outcome - well. is a tough job that one. we are waiting for the outcome in i well. is a tough job that one. we l are waiting for the outcome in the west midlands, we are keeping an eye

on that, with andy street of course defending his position. we're not going to be able to show you that, but i can see it on of my screens. we also have some london results coming in, in ealing and hillingdon. 0n the west midlands, john, if it is very close, do they do recounts? i’m very close, do they do recounts? i'm auoin to very close, do they do recounts? i“n going to pass on that. i cannot claim to admit to have read the detailed regulations about how we conduct that, but i think it was certainly true that when the system was the so—called supplementary vote, but is not only give the first and second preference and we took account of the second preference, i have a vague memory that we got rid of recounts, but where we are, given we are back to first—past—the—post, if it was very, very close, maybe the returning officer would decide.

the difficulty with recounts with these mayoral contests is that the election is taking place and is being counted in a number of different places. it's been counted across the west midlands. so organising a recount is a little bit difficult because it may be that folk in solihull who had finished and gone home.— folk in solihull who had finished and gone home. thanks very much indeed, and gone home. thanks very much indeed. we — and gone home. thanks very much indeed, we will _ and gone home. thanks very much indeed, we will be _ and gone home. thanks very much indeed, we will be back— and gone home. thanks very much indeed, we will be back to - and gone home. thanks very much indeed, we will be back to you - and gone home. thanks very much i indeed, we will be back to you soon. let's speak to joe twyman. he is the co—founder and director of deltapoll. thanks forjoining us. ijust want to talk about london because i think you tweeted about it, saying that if susan hall for the conservatives won in london, it would represent a polling errorfar in in london, it would represent a polling error far in excess of anything the history of our industry. you posted that i presume because of the flutter of uncertainty that we saw last night. that's right. uncertainty is one characterisation for it! haifa that's right. uncertainty is one characterisation for it! how would

ou characterisation for it! how would you characterise _ characterisation for it! how would you characterise it? _ characterisation for it! how would you characterise it? i— characterisation for it! how would you characterise it? i think - characterisation for it! how would | you characterise it? i think wishful briefin: is you characterise it? i think wishful briefing is a _ you characterise it? i think wishful briefing is a polite _ you characterise it? i think wishful briefing is a polite way _ you characterise it? i think wishful briefing is a polite way of - you characterise it? i think wishful briefing is a polite way of putting i briefing is a polite way of putting it. we had over the last couple of days rumours from various people within the conservative party headquarters and within susan hall's team that they were confident of victory, very chipper about the outlook of the contest. we had various expeditions of why that would be the case. the reality was always that labour are historically very strong in london compared to the rest of the country, and at the moment nationally, labour have a 20 point lead, that increase is in london so it was i was going to be an extraordinarily —— extraordinary struggle for susan hall despite issues around for instance brexit, garzo, ulez, howeveryou want issues around for instance brexit, garzo, ulez, however you want to characterise it, despite her positions on all of these things, it was always good to be difficult for her to overturn what was a strong

labour level of support in the capital. labour level of support in the caital. ,, labour level of support in the caital. . ., labour level of support in the caital. ,, ., . . capital. staying on land and, lookin: capital. staying on land and, looking at — capital. staying on land and, looking at the _ capital. staying on land and, looking at the number- capital. staying on land and, looking at the number is - capital. staying on land and, - looking at the number is coming insofar, how do you think it's going to land for the gla and further mayor? it to land for the gla and further ma or? , . ., , to land for the gla and further ma or? , . . , to land for the gla and further ma or? ,. . , , mayor? it is certainly looking very aood for mayor? it is certainly looking very good for labour. _ mayor? it is certainly looking very good for labour. be _ mayor? it is certainly looking very good for labour. be interesting i mayor? it is certainly looking veryj good for labour. be interesting to see if susan hall can get within single digits of sadiq khan. the bbc estimates 10%. i think if she can get that to 8% or 9% in the final analysis, that would probably be seen as a success for those within the conservative party who are perhaps expecting a much greater level of defeat. when you combine that with ben houchen's victory in the tees valley and potentially, although we don't know, andy street's victory in west midlands, should that arrive, those are potentially three zero bad stories that you can point to for the conservatives, on what has otherwise been a very, very difficult set of

results for them.— results for them. and overall in terms of how _ results for them. and overall in terms of how the _ results for them. and overall in terms of how the political- results for them. and overall in terms of how the political map | results for them. and overall in i terms of how the political map has shifted so far, including councils, what are we seeing? the shifted so far, including councils, what are we seeing?— shifted so far, including councils, what are we seeing? the last few da s has what are we seeing? the last few days has been — what are we seeing? the last few days has been a _ what are we seeing? the last few days has been a bit _ what are we seeing? the last few days has been a bit like _ what are we seeing? the last few days has been a bit like a - what are we seeing? the last few days has been a bit like a test i days has been a bit like a test match, but a very one—sided test match, but a very one—sided test match and as we have come a long, one side or the other has had moments where it has looked like they might be doing better but ultimately, in the final result, these have been a very good set of results for labour mother perhaps not quite as good as their most positive supporters would have hoped for. and similarly, these have been a very bad set of results for the conservatives, though perhaps not as bad as their most negative naysayers may have feared. so i think particularly coupled with the victory for ben houchen in the tees valley, that will probably be enough to stop any immediate threat to rishi sunak a's leadership. longer term, the local results plus the

mayoral results, plus the by—election that we had in blackpool south, all point to a strong position for labour going into what we assume will only be a few months until the general election takes place. until the general election takes lace. �* , . until the general election takes lace. , . , place. and the liberal democrats have done fairly _ place. and the liberal democrats have done fairly well _ place. and the liberal democrats have done fairly well and - place. and the liberal democrats have done fairly well and some i place. and the liberal democrats | have done fairly well and some of these votes, how do you explain that? ~ , ., , ., , that? well, the liberal democrats look like they _ that? well, the liberal democrats look like they may _ that? well, the liberal democrats look like they may end _ that? well, the liberal democrats look like they may end up - that? well, the liberal democrats look like they may end up with i that? well, the liberal democrats i look like they may end up with more council seats in the conservatives, which would be a very strong story for them. which would be a very strong story forthem. historically, which would be a very strong story for them. historically, the liberal democrats have always been good at local government. in fact, democrats have always been good at local government. infact, priorto 2010, there were seen as in the party local government and they used that to build up support for local elections. in previous years they have struggled to really deliver, but in the context where the conservatives are really suffering in certain areas, they are able to

exploit that failure by the conservatives to do better in specific areas that historically have been, for example the south west. to have been, for example the south west. ., .., have been, for example the south west. ., _, . ~ have been, for example the south west. ., . ~ ., have been, for example the south west. ., ., ., ., . west. to come back to london, we are waitin: for west. to come back to london, we are waiting for the — west. to come back to london, we are waiting for the result _ west. to come back to london, we are waiting for the result to _ west. to come back to london, we are waiting for the result to be _ waiting for the result to be confirmed, we're waiting for the final results, do you think that if the conservatives had chosen perhaps a more prominent figure, someone who had a more public track record, that they could have challenged sadiq khan for his third term in a more positive way? i khan for his third term in a more positive way?— positive way? i think another candidate — positive way? i think another candidate would _ positive way? i think another candidate would potentially l positive way? i think another i candidate would potentially have done better. you talk about someone with high profile or a national profile but it's difficult to see within the current conservative party who would have had sufficient support from the leadership of the party machine and also sufficiently appeal to the kind of people in london that they would need to, to

close the gap further. but i don't think would have made much difference who the candidate was, given that nationally, and in london, labourare given that nationally, and in london, labour are so far ahead of the conservatives. and yes, sadiq khan was going for a third term and there were issues around things like ulez, but given the fundamentals, i suspect it would have been difficult to find some sort of mythical conservative that could have changed the minds of sufficient numbers of people. the minds of sufficient numbers of --eole. �* , , . . the minds of sufficient numbers of --eole. �* , , ., ., ., people. and dester data on the basis, looking _ people. and dester data on the basis, looking at _ people. and dester data on the basis, looking at the _ people. and dester data on the basis, looking at the basis i people. and dester data on the basis, looking at the basis on i people. and dester data on the i basis, looking at the basis on which people vote, are they voting on their local bin services, are they voting on gaza, are they voting on ulez, are they voting on their overall view of the government? well, it will not surprise you to hear that this varies from person to person. some people will vote entirely on local issues, whether thatis entirely on local issues, whether that is social care, potholes or bin collections. 0thers that is social care, potholes or bin collections. others will vote entirely a national issue, the cost

of living, the nhs, immigration, crime and the environment. most people will be somewhere in between and will take local factors into account but also national factors. and turnout tends to be lower at local elections, as we have seen this time, and in mayoral contests, so not everyone who voted at a general election would vote at these. when we do move towards national voting in the general election, we may see a difference in the way that people vote, because also a local election, people are more willing to make tests votes on particular issues in a way that usually they are not at a general election. �* , ., , usually they are not at a general election. �* ,, , ,, , election. and if you put yourself in the shoes of _ election. and if you put yourself in the shoes of rishi _ election. and if you put yourself in the shoes of rishi sunak— election. and if you put yourself in the shoes of rishi sunak if- election. and if you put yourself in the shoes of rishi sunak if you i election. and if you put yourself in the shoes of rishi sunak if you can for a moment, the shoes of rishi sunak if you can fora moment, if the shoes of rishi sunak if you can for a moment, if you are him and he has untiljanuary the latest, he said it's going to be the second half of the year, when would you call the general election? i would call the general election? i would call it four _ call the general election? i would call it four in _ call the general election? i would call it four in november - call the general election? i would call it four in november the i call the general election? i would call it four in november the 21st, | call it four in november the 21st, because i've consistently said on the bbc that that would be my

prediction for the date. more seriously, i think that holding it before the summer represents an enormous risk with regards to rwanda, since so much has been pinned and that by the prime minister. so waiting until after the party conference season and hoping that the situation with small boats and immigration generally gets better, but you're not so far into the winter that the nhs starts to be more of a problem, so the end of november, beginning of december, after the us elections, represents the least worst time to go for. but quite frankly, i don't think there is a positive choice to make. the one thing that i think would be a really bad idea is holding it over christmas or between christmas and new year. i don't think there is anyone out there or if it's not many people thinking oh, good, general election campaign over christmas! mi; election campaign over christmas! my final thought on that because there is a lot of speculation about

whether this will overlap with the us election, i think it has maybe happened once before. 0nce, us election, i think it has maybe happened once before. once, 1964. what happens to the media space and the public discussion, is there any benefit to the conservatives in doing that?— benefit to the conservatives in i doing that?_ there is doing that? nobody knows. there is less sace doing that? nobody knows. there is less space for _ doing that? nobody knows. there is less space for the _ doing that? nobody knows. there is less space for the labour _ doing that? nobody knows. there is less space for the labour party i doing that? nobody knows. there is less space for the labour party to i less space for the labour party to go and trumpet their wins this weekend, for example.- go and trumpet their wins this weekend, for example. yeah, i mean, weekend, for example. yeah, i mean, we can speculate _ weekend, for example. yeah, i mean, we can speculate about _ weekend, for example. yeah, i mean, we can speculate about what - weekend, for example. yeah, i mean, we can speculate about what impact i we can speculate about what impact it might have but ultimately, i don't think the impact will be enormous, particularly if we are talking about three or four weeks after the us election. in 1964, the last time this happened, lyndon johnson won by a strong distance in america, and the uk election was actually before that. so there really is no comparison. but maybe the conservatives will be hoping that it will cause less media attention on the british elections so they will benefit from that but

there is no guarantee, that is speculation. i think the only thing that could potentially make a difference is if it looks like donald trump might win, but it has not been confirmed and there is all sorts of issues going on in america in the way that there were of the 2000 election between george w bush and al gore. and the labour party machine desperately looks to keir starmer to denounce donald trump because of their ideological position, and he, playing the role of prime minister in waiting, as he would hope to be, knows that that would hope to be, knows that that would be a bad idea, ithink would hope to be, knows that that would be a bad idea, i think there might be some friction there and perhaps the opportunity for division, but that's miles away from what could actually happen, really is just me sitting here speculating. well, we had better stop you there, then! thank you very much indeed, good to talk to you. let's now cross over

to my colleague rajini vaidyanathan who is at the count in birmingham. we are waiting for the count, when is it coming?— is it coming? well, we are waiting the result here _ is it coming? well, we are waiting the result here in _ is it coming? well, we are waiting the result here in birmingham, i is it coming? well, we are waiting. the result here in birmingham, one of the regional counting centres in this west midlands mayoral election. you can see there is a bit of activity on the stage, welcome in front of the stage. it was a while ago now actually that the sign behind me said result incoming but i have to say we have been waiting a while now, at least 20 minutes or so and no result has materialised yet. but this is key because this is the main urban centre in this region, and what happens here could play a big part in our overall result. at the moment you have the incumbent, the moment you have the incumbent, the conservative mayor andy street, hoping for a third term in office. throughout the campaign the polls have looked quite close. the labour candidate richard parker hoping he candidate richard parker hoping he can unseat the tory mayor, speaking

to people from both camps of the main parties, the conservatives say it is generally too close to call. a similar sentiment from labour to say it is neck and neck. of course if the labour party were to unseat andy street, who has a real personal appeal here, in some ways he has distanced himself from the national conservative party and has been all about rand andy and his —— and he does have the incumbent advantage so if labour were to unseat him it would be a stunning victory in a weekend of results that are really gonein weekend of results that are really gone in their favour. weekend of results that are really gone in theirfavour. earlier i spoke to chris mason to chew over what happened here. rishi sunak yesterday with a sea of pretty bleak results. the result in tees valley was a place where there was smiling conservatives toasting a victory. and he was there straight... he was there in the blink of an eye.

partly because he lives down the road. but of course he was there in the blink of an eye. that's exactly what you would do, wouldn't you? and similarly, it would be a significant fillip for him psychologically if andy street holds on here. when you look at the numbers in the tees valley and the swing against ben houchen, who last time round or now the time before last one by a million miles, he had more than 70% of the vote. there was a big swing against him, but obviously that could still happen and he could still win, given the margin of his victory last time. if you look at the swing against him, a lot of conservative seats in the tees valley would be very vulnerable if there was anything approaching that kind of swing at a general election. so there's a danger of over interpretation, particularly around the mayoral model. but you look here in the west midlands and particularly on the periphery of birmingham, there are all sorts of interesting battleground westminster seats which inevitably politicos here will pore over the results of the mayoral contest to at least begin to see what it might say about the general election. and i suppose the intriguing thing to tease away and will be impossible to have a definitive answer on is to what extent is the party brand and the national trend significant and to what extent

is in particular here, brand andy street's own personal brand able to act as a counter to the national trend which has been away from the conservatives? let's move on to the labour party. there's been some talk here that if they don't win here and they've really thrown a lot at this race, and sir keir starmer was talking up a possible win here a while back, some people are saying that sir keir starmer�*s position on the ongoing conflict in gaza could have led to some muslim voters in what is a very diverse part of the uk moving away from labour and actually gravitating towards an independent candidate here who has actually had his platform all about gaza. exactly. and labour are acknowledging both regionally and nationally that keir starmer's stance on gaza and some of the remarks he made earlier on in the immediate weeks after the attack on israel has contributed to political damage for them. now their argument is that they had no alternative.

they use this phrase country first, party second.