this is bbc news. we will have the headlines for you on the hour, which is straight after this programme. this is bbc news. hello and welcome to our new season. what's binyamin netanyahu planning now in gaza and why? he netanyahu planning now in gaza and wh ? ., netanyahu planning now in gaza andwh ? ., ., , and why? he would say the only wa for and why? he would say the only way for israel _ and why? he would say the only way for israel to _ and why? he would say the only way for israel to have _ and why? he would say the only way for israel to have peace - and why? he would say the only way for israel to have peace is l way for israel to have peace is to have security.— to have security. more than a touch of gloom _ to have security. more than a touch of gloom in _ to have security. more than a touch of gloom in ukraine, i to have security. more than a| touch of gloom in ukraine, as its people face some

unpalatable realities. bi; unpalatable realities. by milita unpalatable realities. e5 military means, unpalatable realities. by military means, ukraine is not able to retake all territories, including the crimea. find able to retake all territories, including the crimea. and 30 ears including the crimea. and 30 years after — including the crimea. and 30 years after the _ including the crimea. and 30 years after the glory - including the crimea. and 30 years after the glory days - including the crimea. and 30 years after the glory days of| years after the glory days of nelson mandela's arrival of power, south africa marks the anniversary of disillusion and angen anniversary of disillusion and men anniversary of disillusion and an a er. , ., ., anniversary of disillusion and men , ., . , anger. the poor disenfranchised lacked majority _ anger. the poor disenfranchised lacked majority that _ anger. the poor disenfranchised lacked majority that suffered . lacked majority that suffered and there would have been economic freedom to follow political freedom.— economic freedom to follow political freedom. hamas and the israeli — political freedom. hamas and the israeli government - political freedom. hamas and the israeli government are i the israeli government are engaged in a complex dual at present with hamas slightly to the surprise of the us and other western countries accepting a considerable number of israel's demands for a ceasefire. israel insists that

hamas hasn't gone far enough. binyamin netanyahu, israel's prime minister, has decided to push in to the southern town of rafah greatly against america's wishes. the un warns of serious danger to the civilians who have been forced out of their homes. a great deal of israel's strategy in gaza is dictated by internal politics as mr netanyahu tries to keep enough support from his far right associates in government. i asked jeremy bowen, the bbc�*s international editor who has had years of experience reporting from israel, to explain how the decision by hamas to accept some form of ceasefire has changed things? you can argue that their decision to sign up to a version of a peace deal was an adroit piece of politics because it's put the pressure on netanyahu and the pressure is coming at him now from all sides. first of all, inside his

own cabinet, the two ultra—nationalist, highly religious messianic religious figures who are in their messes. they are people who have said very clearly that rafah offensive needs to be complete as anything else in gaza and israel needs to occupy the city and any kind of deal with hamas they don't like would be a surrender. and if he doesn't do as they want, they'll bring down the government which they could do. on the other side of things in israel, there's hostage families who say just israel, there's hostage families who sayjust bring our people back. we don't do a deal. i've spoken to loads of these people and they say things like, "if we have to release every palestinian prisoner, release them. then do what you want in gaza but bring our people back." as well as that, there is israel's western allies led by the us. and this

whole business of supporting israel is starting to hurt biden in an election year. the campuses are ablaze. he's clearly losing votes in some crucial areas. clearly losing votes in some crucialareas. he clearly losing votes in some crucial areas. he would like to get this thing over with. the americans would like very much forfirst of all, americans would like very much for first of all, before we can go anywhere with diplomacy, a ceasefire. d0 go anywhere with diplomacy, a ceasefire. , ., ~ ceasefire. do you think if he can persuade _ ceasefire. do you think if he can persuade netanyahu - ceasefire. do you think if he can persuade netanyahu to | can persuade netanyahu to accept a ceasefire, will that, will that help biden's position?— will that help biden's position? help biden's position- _ position? help biden's position. it _ position? help biden's position. it will - position? help biden's position. it will help i position. it will help everybody to be honest. first of all, if they do a ceasefire deal, will it last? one imponderable is within israel, there is a widespread assumption, notjustamong assumption, not just among netanyahu's assumption, notjustamong netanyahu's critics, that he would like to lengthen the war. why? because he wants to pull

off the moment of reckoning when there will be an inquiry and he will have to bear some responsibility for the policies that he followed not just for weeks but for many years towards gaza and they help create the situation that led to the october 7 attack. netanyahu october 7 attack. neta nyahu would october 7 attack. netanyahu would say the only way to have peaceis would say the only way to have peace is for israel to have security and the only way for israel to have security is for the palestinians to be kept on a very tight rein, not to have independence. not to have self—determination, not to have freedom. they are intractable enemies of the israelis. that looks more or less from his point of view and there is the other much more widespread view many countries have which is there is lean one way of getting peace and security for both israelis and palestinians and that's to have the so—called 2—state solution,

independent palestine alongside israel. . �* , independent palestine alongside israel. ., �*, ., , israel. that's of course the biden line? _ israel. that's of course the biden line? biden - israel. that's of course the biden line? biden has- israel. that's of course the i biden line? biden has revived this idea- _ biden line? biden has revived this idea. biden _ biden line? biden has revived this idea. biden and - biden line? biden has revived this idea. biden and blinken,| this idea. biden and blinken, his secretary of state. while all western countries who are allies with israel i think have paid lip service to it, and i have tried to say repeatedly on air that it became a slogan, it was empty, now though since october 7, was empty, now though since october7, i was empty, now though since october 7, i think the americans are serious about it again. americans are serious about it aaain. ., ~' , , again. one of the key elements of this whole _ again. one of the key elements of this whole war _ again. one of the key elements of this whole war on _ of this whole war on netanyahu's part was really effectively to destroy hamas root and branch. that clearly hasn't, they've done a lot of damage to ham, but that hasn't happened, has it? it damage to ham, but that hasn't happened, has it?— happened, has it? it hasn't. the 're happened, has it? it hasn't. thev're doing _ happened, has it? it hasn't. they're doing a _ happened, has it? it hasn't. they're doing a great - happened, has it? it hasn't. they're doing a great deal l happened, has it? it hasn't. | they're doing a great deal to destroy gaza. the infrastructure, the buildings, the thing is apart from the fact that it's very hard to knock out every last weapon,

it's also an idea that's very embedded in the palestinian political consciousness, the idea of a sort of religious nationalism. 50 idea of a sort of religious nationalism.— idea of a sort of religious nationalism. ., , ., nationalism. so he has failed? state of games _ nationalism. so he has failed? state of games were - nationalism. so he has failed? state of games were as - nationalism. so he has failed? i state of games were as follows. eradicate hamas. they used phrases like wipe them off the face of the earth. they haven't done that, clearly. the other one is get the hostages back. and that has not happened. hostages have come out but that was a result back in the brief truce back in november of negotiation. the position of the israeli government has been the israeli government has been the only way to get the hostages back is to use force. the one thing he has achieved on the first day he made a speech saying we will take words to this effect, "mighty vengeance against these perpetrators." i think you can certainly say that's happened. gazais certainly say that's happened. gaza is in ruins. more than

34,000 gaza is in ruins. more than 3a,000 people killed. the majority of whom are civilians — women and children. so, yeah, he's got the vengeance, not the other things. he's got the vengeance, not the otherthings. in he's got the vengeance, not the other things-— other things. in ukraine, slow but seemingly _ other things. in ukraine, slow but seemingly relentless - but seemingly relentless russian advance grinds on. the aim now seems to be to grab new territory in the east. a russian summer offensive is taking shape. how bitterly ukraine must regret that its summer offensive last year wasn't more successful. woe may soon be hearing a lot more about the donetsk city, which could well block the russians�* way to ukraine�*s second city, kharkiv. if vladimir putin can threaten kharkiv, ukraine�*s

position will be really bad. it's position will be really bad. it�*s the right time to acknowledge to admit delays in the supplies of western weapons. one of the biggest problems for ukraine since the very beginning of the war. i think the ukrainian forces and for any big offensive operations in 202a. for any big offensive operations in 2024. for any big offensive o erations in 2024. ~ , operations in 2024. the western leaders seen _ operations in 2024. the western leaders seen now— operations in 2024. the western leaders seen now to _ operations in 2024. the western leaders seen now to be - operations in 2024. the western leaders seen now to be quite - leaders seen now to be quite open to the idea that ukraine should carry out attacks deep inside russia. will that change the course of the war? ukrainian forces, especially ukrainian forces, especially ukrainian intelligence, they have already carried out some military operations on the russian ground. the question is whether they used or they didn�*t use, didn�*t deploy the

weapons provided by the west in order to be able to continue this war, to resist, it�*s really necessary to be able to target russian military, first of all military, and critical infrastructure. russia succeeded in by—passing western sanctions. sanctions that were imposed on its defence industries. so if it�*s not possible to stop the production of missiles, which are regularly launched against ukrainian cities, not only the front—line, but for the military answers to this problem, is the long range missiles that can be launched against russian military production. i against russian military production.— against russian military production. against russian military roduction. ~ ., ,, production. i know you've spent uuite a production. i know you've spent quite a lot _ production. i know you've spent quite a lot of— production. i know you've spent quite a lot of time _ production. i know you've spent quite a lot of time on _ production. i know you've spent quite a lot of time on the - quite a lot of time on the front—line and i know you talked to ordinary soldiers and right up to the commanders.

tell me what�*s your own personal opinion about this. is ukraine losing the war? first thin , ukraine losing the war? first thing. they _ ukraine losing the war? first thing, they don't _ ukraine losing the war? first thing, they don't feel - ukraine losing the war? first thing, they don't feel that i thing, they don�*t feel that ukraine is winning the war now. it's ukraine is winning the war now. it�*s not yet about the defeat for them for now. the other thing that is really important is that they all speak about lack of people. there are simply not enough fighters, not enough military on the front—line to ukraine, and now trying to boost its conscription but it�*s hard. those who volunteered to serve in the army and defend ukraine, they signed up to the army service at the beginning of the war. at the beginning of the war. at the beginning of the war ukrainian military, they

had to handle the queues of people willing to serve in their army. and now they have to handle their emptiness. they have to handle the situation when very few people still feel motivated. and i think there is also a very widespread understanding that by military measures, by military means, ukraine is not able to retake all territories, including the crimea. so other means like diplomatic talks will be needed in the future to restore the territorial integrity of ukraine.— territorial integrity of ukraine. , ., ., ukraine. the chinese have now bouuht ukraine. the chinese have now bought this _ ukraine. the chinese have now bought this entire _ ukraine. the chinese have now bought this entire mountain. i bought this entire mountain. china�*s growing reach around the world extends to several continents. ifilmed in chinese

owned mines in peru, in zambia in southern africa, and in assembly plants in different parts of asia. in just about every case, the pattern is the same — the plant is a little version of china with as much chinese labour as the plant can bring in, and as few links with the country surrounding it as possible. a bbc investigation has found that chinese companies now control an estimated third of lithium projects in an area of chile, argentina and bolivia, known as the lithium triangle which holds most of the world�*s reserves. lithium is the chemical element the world needs in particular for chemical element the world needs in particularfor its mobile phones. the research was overseen by the editor of the bbc global china unit. we set out looking — bbc global china unit. we set out looking for— bbc global china unit. we set out looking for open - bbc global china unit. we set out looking for open source i out looking for open source data at chinese mines operating all across the world and we

found over 60 mines that are designed to extract these minerals. now what�*s more interesting that we found is that we can look over the course of the last 10 years for example and see how china has been making rapid strategic gains in terms of its investments into these projects. that was especially clear in the lithium triangle. 10 years ago a chinese company made its first investment in the triangle. io made its first investment in the triangle. 10 years on what we can now say is 33% of the lithium in the ground at these projects either already producing or those under construction are now controlled ljy construction are now controlled by clinies companies. i construction are now controlled by clinies companies.— by clinies companies. i always associate _ by clinies companies. i always associate lithium _ by clinies companies. i always associate lithium with - by clinies companies. i always associate lithium with mobile | associate lithium with mobile phones but there are many, many more ways of using it, aren�*t there? more ways of using it, aren't there? ~ , ,., , , there? absolutely. these minerals _ there? absolutely. these minerals are _ there? absolutely. these minerals are critical- there? absolutely. these minerals are critical of. minerals are critical of slowing down climate change. they�*re using green technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles. specifically the lithium ion

batteries that are needed for those vehicles. and the un has said if we are to meet net zero targets for 2050, we�*ll need to use six times more of these critical minerals by 2040 to get there. critical minerals by 2040 to get there-— get there. we shouldn't criticise _ get there. we shouldn't criticise china _ get there. we shouldn't criticise china for - get there. we shouldn't i criticise china for wanting get there. we shouldn't - criticise china for wanting to go green. it is something that is in everybody�*s interest? absolutely. i mean, what china has done and what it will say it�*s done is it will make green technologies more accessible, more cheaply available, more redably available across the global south and creating job creation and economic opportunities to the global south countries from which it is investing heavily in. there�*s massive global incentive notjust there�*s massive global incentive not just from there�*s massive global incentive notjust from the global south but from the us, the eu and these western nations are actually themselves waking up to this reality that of how important these minerals are. ~ ., ., ~ are. what do you think china's basic aim _ are. what do you think china's basic aim is? _ are. what do you think china's basic aim is? do _ are. what do you think china's basic aim is? do you - are. what do you think china's basic aim is? do you think -

are. what do you think china's basic aim is? do you think it i basic aim is? do you think it is simply that they want the materials to carry on the things that they produce or do you think there is something western countries would find more sinister about it? there's a clear geopolitical _ more sinister about it? there's a clear geopolitical incentive i a clear geopolitical incentive because of the leverage that china gets in its negotiations with other countries by having such a dominant over these incredibly important minerals. what you�*re seeing there is the role of profit. naturally undriving some of those companies abroad there is huge profits to be gained. it�*s not as sittal as being purely geopolitical. there�*s a profit element to it as well. it geopolitical. there's a profit element to it as well. it would be a complete _ element to it as well. it would be a complete mistake - element to it as well. it would be a complete mistake to - element to it as well. it would be a complete mistake to see| element to it as well. it would l be a complete mistake to see xi jinping sitting there and beijing pulling these strings. the chinese economy which is doing these in chinese businesses? i doing these in chinese businesses?— doing these in chinese businesses? ~' ., doing these in chinese businesses? ~ ., , businesses? i think it would be a mistake _ businesses? i think it would be a mistake to — businesses? i think it would be a mistake to think— businesses? i think it would be a mistake to think of— businesses? i think it would be a mistake to think of it - businesses? i think it would be a mistake to think of it as - a mistake to think of it as purely centrally driven by beijing. yes, policy is dispersed from beijing centrally, and, yes, that policy includes subsidies that

encourage those companies to invest and makes it cheaper for them to achieve the scale they need. however, there is also entrepreneurship and companies going abroad and taking advantage of all of. and those two factors at play here that has led to china�*s dominance in this sector. has led to china's dominance in this sector-— this sector. this little tour that xi jinping _ this sector. this little tour that xi jinping is _ this sector. this little tour that xi jinping is taking i that xi jinping is taking around europe, what�*s the point of it? what�*s the purpose of it first of all? of it? what's the purpose of it first of all?— first of all? let's put it into context- — first of all? let's put it into context. xi _ first of all? let's put it into context. xi hasn't - first of all? let's put it into context. xi hasn't been - first of all? let's put it into context. xi hasn't been to l context. xi hasn�*t been to france in five years. an incredibly important trip for him. looking at the selection of countries here — you have france, serbia, hungary, all three of them i would say in their own way, some more than others, would position themselves as sort of independent from the us i think. especially france under macron. and i think this is a term that chinese sort of, the foreign ministry often makes around strategic autotomy. what they want ultimatesly to have an independent eu that purviews

its own —— pursues its own policy. a separate poll from the us and other countries. i think that would be one of the key goals for this trip. i�*ere key goals for this trip. i've reported _ key goals for this trip. i've reported on _ key goals for this trip. i've reported on pretty - key goals for this trip. i've reported on pretty superb moments in my time but the election which brought nelson mandela to power in south africa, entirely peacefully in 1994, was right up there with the best. the experts had been forecasting that the end of apartheid and the start of majority rule would bring violence and civil war to south africa. instead, on the evening of mandela�*s inauguration, my team rang the south african police and found that not a single crime had been reported in any of the country�*s main cities that day. with such a start, you might have hoped that south africa�*s future would be rosy. instead, the 30

years since then have been marked by extraordinary corruption, crime and economic failure. now, with another election due at the end of this month, i talked to the bbc southern africa correspondent. the poor disenfranchised black majority that suffered during apartheid expected that there also would have a been economic freedom to follow political freedom. yes, it has happened in some quarters. however, not everyone is satisfied, particularly because the unemployment rate is at 35% currently. and the majority of those that are unemployed, it�*s the youth, it�*s young people. and notjust any the youth, it�*s young people. and not just any young the youth, it�*s young people. and notjust any young people, it�*s graduates. we know of some unemployed graduates who will

be queuing on may 29, wearing their scrubs. and their graduation gowns, because they�*re hoping that their vote is going to bring about some change. is going to bring about some chance. �* ., ., , , ., change. but who do they blame for what's _ change. but who do they blame for what's gone _ change. but who do they blame for what's gone wrong? - change. but who do they blame for what's gone wrong? they i for what's gone wrong? they feel they've _ for what's gone wrong? they feel they've been _ for what's gone wrong? tie: feel they've been neglected and feel they�*ve been neglected and as a result, it�*s easy for them to blame the anc and it�*s because of so much corruption within the government. and they feel that all that money that is being stolen all the time could have created jobs. the anc could have created an environment that would ensure that jobs are environment that would ensure thatjobs are created, notjust coming from the government, but also from the private sector. it is corruption that�*s caused the anger, isn�*t it? absolutely. the anger, isn't it? absolutely.- the anger, isn't it? absolutely. the anger, isn't it? absolutel . �*, ., ., , the anger, isn't it? absolutel. �*, ., ., absolutely. it's got worse and worse. absolutely. it's got worse and worse- and — absolutely. it's got worse and worse. and under _ absolutely. it's got worse and worse. and underjacob - absolutely. it's got worse and | worse. and underjacob zuma, absolutely. it's got worse and i worse. and underjacob zuma, it be came huge? the

worse. and underjacob zuma, it be came huge?— be came huge? the looting was 'ust so be came huge? the looting was just so much — be came huge? the looting was just so much during _ be came huge? the looting was just so much during zuma's - be came huge? the looting was| just so much during zuma's time just so much during zuma�*s time in office. so much more rampant thanit in office. so much more rampant than it has ever been in any administration, let alone during what happened during the covid pandemic. but the anc also needs to remember that jacob zuma is the monster they created. and nowjacob zuma is literally attempting to eat into the votes of the anc in this election and it looks like he may well succeed. lope this election and it looks like he may well succeed. low will he may well succeed. low will he do that? — he may well succeed. low will he do that? what _ he may well succeed. low will he do that? what he - he may well succeed. low will he do that? what he is - he may well succeed. low will he do that? what he is doing l he may well succeed. low willl he do that? what he is doing is that he has _ he do that? what he is doing is that he has been _ he do that? what he is doing is that he has been seriously - that he has been seriously campaigning particularly in his home province and other areas a lot of people are disillusioned. the senior leadership of the governing party itself, they�*re not happy with what president ramaphosa has been doing. in that, when he started campaigning, he was the president who promised to

get rid of corruption. he was the president who said, "send me. i will clean up the corruption." however, the covid—19 pandemic happened. more money was looted in that two years than what happened during the jacob zuma tenure. yes, people are disillusioned, even within the anc. some senior anc members are even helping jacob zuma�*s new party. this election is definitely going to be interesting. is going to be interesting. is south africa ever going to shake this off real basically, corruption is the one system that properly works? corruption has been deeply _ that properly works? corruption has been deeply entrenched - that properly works? corruption | has been deeply entrenched into society. however, there are people within the government that don�*t want that. it�*s easy to bride for a service that you�*re supposed to be getting, because it is supposed to be

provided for by the government. it will be up to ordinary south africans to ensure that kind of thing does not continue perpetually. thing does not continue perpetually-— thing does not continue perpetually. thing does not continue --eretuall. ., ~ ., perpetually. may not kind of continue with _ perpetually. may not kind of continue with the _ perpetually. may not kind of continue with the anc- perpetually. may not kind of continue with the anc still. continue with the anc still governing things basically and still continuing on their old way? i still continuing on their old wa ? ., �* ~' still continuing on their old wa ? ., �* ., ~ still continuing on their old wa ? ., �* ~ ., ~ way? i don't think that the anc is auoin way? i don't think that the anc is going to _ way? i don't think that the anc is going to continue _ way? i don't think that the anc is going to continue in - way? i don't think that the anc is going to continue in their- is going to continue in their old way. i don�*t think after this election it will be business as usual. the older generation, people like my mum, who have always been supporters of the anc, are voting differently in this election, because that is what will make the anc wake up to see that it is not business as usual. fin the anc wake up to see that it is not business as usual.- is not business as usual. on a brief visit _ is not business as usual. on a brief visit from _ is not business as usual. on a brief visit from south - is not business as usual. on a brief visit from south africa i brief visit from south africa there. vladimir putin, whom i first met in 1992 when he was

the newly appointed — and i have to say not terribly impressive — deputy mayor of st petersburg, hasjust been impressive — deputy mayor of st petersburg, has just been sworn in for his fifth term as russia�*s most powerful leader since stalin. as he took the oath, putin said that russia didn�*t rule out dialogue with the west but it needed to be on equal terms. that made a lot of diplomatic ears prick up in washington, london and other places. russia has been doing well all long the front—line in the war recently. and as we were told earlier in this programme, ukraine�*s hopes of recapturing crimea and the territory in the east, are fading. although russia�*s economy has shifted successfully onto our war footing, not everything is going vladimir putin�*s way.

russia�*s oil exports may be doing well, but its exports of gas have been badly hit by western boycotts. and the russian economy is looking vulnerable to banking sanctions, planned by the americans. so although russia has the edge in the actual fighting, it would probably like to find a way to end the war on reasonably good terms. all wars do end eventually and the time to stop thinking about peaceis the time to stop thinking about peace is when one side or the other senses that defeat is starting to be a possibility. could that be soon? maybe, just maybe. that�*s it from the new summer season of unspun world. it's summer season of unspun world. it�*s good to be so from the unspun team —— back. so from

the unspun team and me, goodbye. hello there. it�*s the warmest day of the year so far across all four nations on saturday, with temperatures peaking at 26 degrees celsius in the highlands and also in east sussex, too. but change is on its way on sunday in the form of heavy, thundery showers for much of the western half of the uk, whereas further east, it should stay largely dry. all this change is brought about, of course, because the high pressure that�*s been keeping us dry, settled and warm over the last few days is gradually drifting further eastwards towards scandinavia, allowing for these weather fronts to approach from the west. but it�*s a mostly dry start to the day on sunday with some sunny spells, any early mist and fog will lift and clear really quite readily. but it won�*t be too long through the late morning before we see the showers pop up across western scotland, down through northern ireland, wales and the south west of england. and if we just take a little

tour at around four o�*clock across northern and western scotland gradually drifting further east with some of the showers really quite heavy. it�*s still quite warm, 22 degrees celsius in glasgow, but certainly cooler than on saturday. more showers across northern ireland, some of the showers particularly heavy across wales. there could be some localised flooding perhaps as well. more isolated showers for central southern england, maybe 26 or 27 degrees celsius in south east england. cooler and breezier towards those north sea facing coasts. and overnight, those showers will continue to drift further eastwards. but this is the main driver of monday�*s weather, this deep area of low pressure that�*s going to roll this weather run in from the south west. so, again, a largely dry start to the day for the vast majority, but cloud thickening from the south west, rain pushing into wales from south west england and eventually northern ireland through the afternoon, as well as scattering showers across scotland and northern england. but again across many eastern areas of england. it could stay largely dry, but it will be cooler across the board.

but still temperatures peaking in the low twenties out towards the east. but the area of low pressure just continues to roll its way further northwards and eastwards as we head through tuesday and into wednesday. so there will be further showers around at times for many in general. here�*s the outlook for our capital cities as we head through next week and see those temperatures really start to drop off. there will still be some sunshine around. lots of dry weather at times, but also some showers, too. bye— bye.

live from washington, this is bbc news. israel orders more evacuations in rafah as it intensifies military operations. sweeping pro—europe protests in tblisi, georgia, as the country moves forward with a bill critics say will clamp down on dissent. plus, the eurovision song contest crowns switzerland as its winner. we�*ll get reaction from malmo in sweden. hello, i�*m helena humphrey. glad you could join me. israel has ordered thousands more people to leave the city of rafah in southern gaza, the city of rafah in southern as it presses on with its military campaign there against hamas.

the israel defense forces have declared a narrow coastal strip at al mawasi