voice—over: this is bbc news. we'll have the headlines for you at the top of the hour, which is straight after this programme. hello and welcome to our new season. what is benyamin netanyahu planning in gaza now, and why? netanyahu would say the only way to have peace for israel is to have security. the only way for israel to have security is for the palestinians to be kept on a very tight rein. more than a touch of gloom in ukraine, as its people face unpalatable realities. ukraine is not able to retake all territories, including the crimea.

and 30 years after the glory days of nelson mandela's arrival in power, south africa marks the anniversary with disillusion and anger. the poor, disenfranchised black majority that suffered _ during apartheid expected - that they also would have been during apartheid expected - that there also would have been economic freedom to follow political freedoms. - hamas and the israeli government are engaged in a complex dual at present, with hamas, slightly to the surprise of the us and other western countries, accepting a considerable number of israel's demands for a ceasefire. israel insists that hamas hasn't gone far enough.

benjamin netanyahu, israel's prime minister, has decided to push into the southern town of rafah, greatly against america's wishes. the un warns of serious danger to the civilians who have been forced out of their homes. a great deal of israel's strategy in gaza is dictated by internal politics, as mr netanyahu tries to keep enough support from his far—right associates in government. i asked jeremy bowen, the bbc�*s international editor, who has had years of experience reporting from israel, to explain how the decision by hamas to accept some form of ceasefire has changed things. you can argue that their decision to sign up to a version of a peace deal was a good piece of politics. it has put the pressure on netanyahu and the pressure is coming at him now from all sides. first of all, from

inside his own cabinet. the two ultranationalists, highly religious, messianic figures who are in there, they are people who have said very clearly, that hamas offensive needs to be complete, as complete as anything else in gaza, and israel needs to occupy the city, and any kind of deal with hamas that they don't like would be a surrender. and if he doesn't do as they want, they will bring down the government, which they could do. but on the other side of things in israel, there are the hostage families who say just bring our people back, don't do a deal. i have spoken to lots of the families who say, if we have to release every palestinian prisoner, release them and then do what you want in gaza, but bring our people back. as well as that, there's israel's western allies led by the united states. this whole business

of supporting israel is starting to hurt biden in an election year. the campuses are ablaze and he is clearly losing votes in some crucial areas. he would like to get this thing over with. and do the americans would like very much for, first of all, before we go anywhere else with diplomacy, a ceasefire. do you think, if he can persuade netanyahu to accept a ceasefire, will that help joe biden�*s position? anything that stops the killing in gaza will help biden�*s position. it will help everybody, to be honest. but, first of all, if they do a ceasefire deal, will it last? one imponderable is that, within israel, there is a widespread assumption, notjust among netanyahu's critics, that he would like to lengthen the war. why? because he wants to put off

the moment of reckoning when there will be an inquiry and he will have to bear some responsibility for the policies he followed, not just for weeks, but for many years, towards gaza, which its critics in israel said help create the situation that led to the 7th of october attack. netanyahu would say the only way to have peace is for israel to have security. the only way for israel to have security is for the palestinians to be kept on very tight rein, not to have independence, not to have self—determination, not to have freedom. because they are intractable enemies of the israelis. that is more or less his point of view. there is the other, much more widespread view that many countries have, which is there is only one way of getting peace and security for both israelis and palestinians and that is to have the two state solution. independent palestine alongside israel. that's, of course,

the biden line. biden have revived this idea, biden and blinken. while many people have paid lip service to it and i have had to say repeatedly, it has become a slogan, it was empty. now, since the 7th of october, i think the americans are serious about it again. one of the key elements of this whole war on netanyahu's part, was really effectively to destroy hamas, root and branch. they have done a lot of damage to hamas, but that hasn't happened, has it? it hasn't, they are doing a great deal to destroy gaza, the infrastructure, the buildings. apart from the fact it is very hard to knock out every last weapon, it is also an idea that is very embedded in the palestinian political consciousness, the idea of a sort of religious

nationalism. so he has failed? the stated war aims was as as follows, eradicate hamas, "wipe them off the face of the earth". they haven't done that, clearly. the other one was get the hostages back and as we speak, that hasn't happened. hostages have come out, but that was as a result of the brief truce they had back in november of negotiation. the position of the israeli government is the only way to get the hostages back is to use force. the one thing he has achieved, on the first day, he made a speech, saying, words to this effect, we will take mighty vengeance against these perpetrators.

i think we can certainly say that has happened. you know, gaza is in ruins, more than 3a,000 people killed, majority of whom are civilians, women and children. so he has the vengeance, he hasn't got the other things. in ukraine, slow but seemingly relentless russian advance grinds on. the aim now seems to be to grab new territory in the east. a russian summer offensive is taking shape and how bitterly ukraine must regret its summer offensive last year wasn't more successful. we may soon be hearing a lot more about the donetsk city of chasiv yar, we may soon be hearing a lot more about the donetsk city of chasiv yar, which could well block the russians�* way to ukraine because macro second city to kharkiv. if vladimir putin can threaten kharkiv, ukraine's position will be very bad. we have this report for the bbc

ukrainian service from kyiv. it is the right time to acknowledge to meet delays in the supplies of western weapons are one of the biggest problems for ukraine since the very beginning of the war. i think it concerns us that the ukrainian forces aren't training for any big offensive operations in 202a. the western leaders seem now to be quite open to the idea that ukraine should carry out attacks deep inside russia. will that change the course of the war? ukrainian forces, especially ukrainian intelligence, they have already carried out some military operations on russian ground. the question is whether they used or didn't use the weapons provided by the west.

in order to be able to continue this war, to resist, to defend the ukrainian territories, it is really necessary to target russian military, military and critical infrastructure. russia succeeded in bypassing certain sanctions imposed on its industries. if it's not possible to stop the production of missiles which are regularly launched against ukrainian cities, not only the front line, one of the military answers to this problem is the use of the long—range missiles which can be launched against russian military production. i know you have spent quite a lot of time on the front line and you have talked to ordinary soldiers, right up to the commanders.

tell me, what is your own personal opinion about this, is ukraine losing the war? the first thing, they don't feel, at least many don't feel, that ukraine is winning the war now. it's not about the defeat for them for now, the other thing that is really, really important is they all speak about the lack of people. there are simply not enough fighters, not enough military on the front line and ukraine is now trying to boost its conscription, but it's hard, because the most motivated people, those that volunteered to serve in the army and defend ukraine they signed up to the army service at the beginning of the vote. to the army service at the beginning of the war. at the beginning of the war, the ukrainian military supported the conscription.

they had to handle the queues of people willing to serve in the army and now they have to handle the emptiness, they have to handle the situation where very few people... people still feel motivated. there is also a very widespread understanding that by military measures, by military means, ukraine is not able to retake all territories, including the crimea. so other means, like diplomatic talks, will be needed in the future to restore the territorial integrity of ukraine. the chinese have now bought this entire mountain. china's growing reach around the world extends to several continents. i filmed in chinese—owned

mines in peru, in zambia in southern africa, and in assembly plants in different parts of asia, and just about every case the pattern is exactly the same, the plant is a little version of china with as much chinese labour as the plant can bring in and as few links with the countries surrounding it as possible. a bbc investigation has found that chinese companies now control an estimated third of lithium projects in an area of chile, argentina and bolivia known as the lithium triangle, which holds most of the world's reserves. lithium is the chemical element the world needs in particular for its mobile phones. the research was overseen by the editor of the bbc global china unit. we set out looking through open source data at chinese mines operating all across the world

and we found over 60 mines that are designed to extract these minerals. what is more interesting that we found is that we can look over the course of the last ten years, for example, and see how china has been making rapid strategic gains, in terms of its investments into these projects. that was especially clear in the lithium triangle. so, ten years ago a chinese company made its first investment in the triangle. ten years on, what we can now say is that 33% of the lithium in the ground at these projects either already producing with those already under construction are now controlled by chinese companies. i always associate lithium with mobile phones, but there are many, many more ways of using it, aren't there? absolutely. these minerals are critical to slowing down climate change, they're used in green technologies, solar panels,

electric vehicles, the lithium ion factories that are needed for those vehicles. the un has said if we are to meet net zero targets for 2050 we will have to use six times more of these critical minerals by 2040 to get there. we shouldn't criticise china for wanting to go green, it is something that is in everybody�*s interests. absolutely. what china has done and what it will say it has done, that it is making these green technologies more accessible, more cheaply available, more readily available across the global south. it will also say it's providing job creation and global opportunities to the global companies it is investing heavily in. so there is massive global incentive, also from the us, the eu and these western nations are actually themselves are waking up to this reality of how important these minerals are. what do you think china's basic aim is? do you think it is simply they want the materials to carry on producing the things they produce, or do

you think there is something that western countries would find more sinister about it? there is a clear geopolitical incentive, because of the leverage china gets in its negotiations with other countries by having such a dominance over these incredibly important minerals. what you are also seeing is the role of profit, naturally, in driving some of these companies abroad, there's huge profits are to be gained. it is not simply about being purely geographical, there is a profit element as well. so it would be a complete mistake to see xi jinping sitting there in beijing pulling the strings. i mean, it is the chinese economy which is doing these things, chinese businesses? i think it would be a mistake to think of it as purely centrally driven by beijing. yes, policy is dispersed from beijing, centrally, and yes, that policy includes subsidies, which encourage those companies to invest and it makes it a lot

cheaper for them to achieve the scale that they need. however, there is also entrepreneurship, companies going abroad, companies taking advantage of all of that. it is those two factors at play that has led to china's dominance in this sector. this little tour that xijinping is taking around europe, what is the point of it? what is the purpose of it, first of all? let's put it into context — xi has been to france in five years, this is an incredibly important trip for him. looking at the selection of countries, you have france, serbia, hungary, all three of them i would say, in their own way, some more than others, would position themselves as independent from the us, i think. especially france, under macron. this is a term that the foreign ministry of china also makes around strategic autonomy. what they want ultimately is to have an independent eu that

perceives its own policy in this multipolar world, separable from the us. that would be one of the key goals from this trip. i have reported on some pretty superb moments in my time. but the election which brought nelson mandela to power in south africa, entirely peacefully, in 1994, was right up there with the best. the experts had been forecasting the end of apartheid and the start of majority rule would bring violence and civil war to south africa. instead, on the evening of mandela's inauguration, my team rang the south african police and found not a single crime had been reported in any of the country's main cities that day. with such a start, you might have hoped that south africa's future would be rosy. instead, the 30 years since then have been marked

by extraordinary corruption, crime and economic failure. now, with another election due at the end of this month, i talked to the bbc�*s southern africa correspondent. the poor, disenfranchised black majority that suffered during apartheid expected that also there would be economic freedom to follow political freedom. yes, it has happened in some quarters. however, not everyone is satisfied. particularly because the unemployment rate is a 35% currently. is at 35% currently. and the majority of those that are unemployed, it is the youth, young people. notjust any young people, it is graduates. we know of some unemployed graduates who will be queueing on the 29th of may wearing their scrubs and their graduation gowns,

because they are hoping that their vote is going to bring about some change. but who do they blame for what's gone wrong? they feel that they have been neglected and as a result it is easy for them to blame the anc. also it is because so much corruption within the government. they feel that all that money that is being stolen all the time could have created jobs, the anc could have created an environment that would ensure thatjobs are created, notjust coming from the government, but also from the private sector. it is corruption that has caused the anger, hasn't it? it has got worse and worse and underjacob zuma it became stratospheric? even the anc itself will tell you that during jacob zuma's nine years in office, that is where the looting wasjust so much rampant than it has ever been in any

administration, you know, let alone what happened during the covid pandemic. but the anc also needs to remember thatjacob zuma is the monster that they created, and nowjacob zuma is literally attempting to eat into the votes of the anc in this election and it looks like he may well succeed. how will he do that? what he is doing is that he has been seriously campaigning, particularly in his home province and in the natal and other areas. a lot of people are disillusioned, even within the governing party itself. the senior leadership of the governing party itself, they are not happy with what president ramaphosa has been doing. and, in that when he started campaigning, he was the president who promised to get rid of corruption.

he was the president who said "send me, iwill clean "up the corru ption". however, the covid—i9 pandemic happened, more money was looted in that two years than what happened during the jacob zuma tenure. so, yes, people are disillusioned, even within the anc. some senior anc members are even helping jacob zuma's new party. so this election is definitely going to be interesting. is south africa ever going to shake this off, really, basically, corruption is the one system that properly works? corruption has been deeply entrenched into society. however, there are people within the government that don't want that. it is easy to bribe for a service you are supposed to be getting because it is supposed to be provided for by the government.

it will be up to ordinary south africans to ensure that that kind of thing does not continue perpetually. may it notjust kind of continue with the anc still governing things, basically, and still continuing on their old way? i don't think that the anc is going to continue in their old way. i don't think after this election it is going to be business as usual. the older generation, people like my mum, who have always been supporters of the anc, are voting differently in this election, because that is what will make the anc wake up to see that it is not business as usual. vladimir putin, who i first met in 1992, when he was the newly appointed, and i have to say,

not terribly impressive, deputy mayor of st petersburg, has just been sworn in for his fifth term as russia's most powerful leader since josef stalin. as he took the oath, putin said that russia did not rule out dialogue with the west, but it needed to be on equal terms. that made a lot of diplomatic ears prick up in washington, london and other places. russia has been doing well all along the front line in the war recently and as the bbc ukrainian service told us earlier in this programme, ukraine's hopes of recapturing crimea and the territory in the east are fading. but although russia's economy has shifted successfully onto a war footing, not everything is going vladimir putin's way.

russia's oil exports may be doing well but its exports of gas have been badly hit by western boycotts and the russian economy is looking vulnerable to banking sanctions planned by the americans. so although russia has the edge in the actual fighting, it would probably like to find a way to end on reasonably good terms. all wars do end, eventually, and the time to start thinking about peace is when one side or the other senses about peace is when one side or the other senses that defeat is starting to be a possibility. could that be soon? maybe, just maybe. that's it from the new summer season of unspun world. it is good to be back, so from the team and from me, goodbye, until we meet again.

hello. there were definitely two sides to sunday's weather story. on the one hand, it was very warm. in fact, it looks like it was the warmest day of the year so far, temperatures touching 27 celsius to the west of london, but we saw some really intense downpours and thunderstorms breaking up, especially across western and northern parts of the uk, ushering in a change. low pressure taking charge of our weather through this week, which will bring rain at times, not least across the southwest of england, wales and northern ireland through monday. that rain arriving through the morning and then sticking in place right through into the afternoon. could be enough rain to give some localised flooding and travel disruption, and under the cloud and rain not feeling particularly impressive — 15 or 16 degrees, but for a good part of scotland, central and eastern parts of england, we will hold on to some sunshine and some warmth — maybe 23 or 2a degrees. in fact, for some north sea coasts, it is likely to be warmer on monday afternoon than it was over the weekend.

now, through monday night, this band of rain will be moving slowly, northwards and eastwards on what will be a very mild, even warm night, with temperatures holding up at between 9—11; degrees. so, we start tuesday with our area of low pressure still in place. this frontal system wraps around the low, continuing to drive some outbreaks of rain. this time, the rain bands sitting across the south—east of england, east anglia, parts of the midlands, northern england, still some further rain to come across northern ireland, and then that rain pulling northwards across scotland, sunny spells and showers following on behind. temperatures, broadly, i7, 18 degrees, but still up to 20 in the north of scotland. those temperatures still a touch above the average for the time of year, just not as warm as it has been over the last few days. now, this is wednesday's forecast. still a weakening weather front likely to bring rain for a time in northern england. then it's a sunshine and showers day, and temperatures

17—20, maybe 21 degrees. now, our area of low pressure will still be with us through the second half of the week, but it will tend to loosen its grip, the centre of the low, pulling away southward. so, while there will still be some showers, especially in southern parts, more in the way of dry weather, some spells of sunshine, actually will dry up for some of us, as we head into the weekend, and those temperatures still a touch above normal for the time of year.

live from washington, this is bbc news.

fierce fighting is under way in ukraine's kharkiv region, as thousands are evacuated from their homes. russia's defence minister sergei shoigu is out, as vladimir putin has him replaced in a rare cabinet shake—up. and israel says its opened a new humantarian crossing, as more palestinians are urged to leave the city of rafah ahead of an assualt. hello, i'm helena humphrey. glad you could join me. ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky says there's fierce fighting along a large part of the kharkiv region border in the northeast of the country. russia says it captured another four villages in the region — an area where russian troops had been pushed back nearly two years ago. since russia launched their surprise offensive two days ago, they claim to have taken nine villages altogether — something the bbc has not been able to verify.

there have also been strikes on the russian side