hello. i'm helena humphrey. glad you could join us. we begin in iran, where search and rescue officals say they have reached the wreckage site of the helicopter, which was carrying president ebrahim raisi and the foreign minister. reaching the site, the red crescent said that the situation was "not good", with an iranian official telling reuters that expectation are low for president raisi to be alive after the crash. these are the two men believed to have been on board. president ebrahim raisi on the left, and the country's foreign minister, hossein amir—abdol—lahian on the right. they'd both been on a trip to iran's border with azerbaijan. authorities described the helicopter as making a �*hard landing' in mountainous territory after it got into difficulties in heavy fog.

borzou daragahi is a senior fellow at the atlantic council and an iranian journalist. he explains who ebraham raisi is and how he came to power. raisi was a mid—ranking cleric who is in the inner circle of the supreme leader and one of his close allies and, you know, he became president after all of the reformist and moderate candidates were pretty much disqualified in an election that was considered engineered and many voters stayed away from. earlier, i spoke to trita parsi, co—founder and executive vice president of the quincy institute for responsible macro what can we expect to hear from the regime

macro what can we expect to hearfrom the regime in the coming hours and days here? i think the expectation at this point is that by in a few hours, morning time in tehran, there will be an announcement that even if they may have found the helicopter, it looks extremely unlikely that there will be any survivors. they may have survived the crash, but surviving the night in the cold is a different story, particularly if they are already injured, and i think very likely we are going to go towards some sort of a process that we all deal with notjust a vice president taking over, but most importantly that they will be announcing elections in 50 days, which is going to be a very difficult thing for them. mindful of how apathetic the public is right now since they have lost faith in the chance of actually bringing about any faith in the ballot box. i of actually bringing about any faith in the ballot box.- faith in the ballot box. i want to ask more _ faith in the ballot box. i want to ask more about _ faith in the ballot box. i want to ask more about that - faith in the ballot box. i want i to ask more about that because as you say the regime appears

to be unpopular, participation has been low in recent parliamentary elections, so what do you anticipate happening, if that is the case, if people are called on to go to the ballot box here? well, they may _ to the ballot box here? well, they may try _ to the ballot box here? well, they may try to _ to the ballot box here? well, they may try to do _ to the ballot box here? well, they may try to do a - to the ballot box here? well, they may try to do a safe - to the ballot box here? well, | they may try to do a safe bet, which is just to they may try to do a safe bet, which isjust to have they may try to do a safe bet, which is just to have a few variations of the same type of a conservative candidate, and then they will just a conservative candidate, and then they willjust bite the bullet that people are not participating in the elections, they will say because it is a short period of time for preparation, orthey short period of time for preparation, or they may actually try to drum up some degree of enthusiasm, by ensuring that there actually are some real choices on the ballot. in the last couple of elections they have essentially eliminated any real potent candidates that can be a threat to the conservatives, which is part of the reason why people have become apathetic and given up have become apathetic and given up on the idea of change through the ballot box. given the very sensitive issue of the secession of the supreme

leader, he is likely to pass in the next few years, it does not seem likely that they will take the opportunity to actually bring in some different candidates. they will most likely play it safe, i suspect. and on that point for those iranians, those very many iranians, those very many iranians who have been out on the street, they have been protesting, putting themselves at risk here. you don't think essentially they will be breathing a sigh of relief, thinking there will be any kind of real change here in policies?— of real change here in policies? of real change here in olicies? ., , ., policies? no, because at the end of the — policies? no, because at the end of the day, _ policies? no, because at the end of the day, ebrahim - policies? no, because at the| end of the day, ebrahim raisi was not a particularly important president or impactful president. he was not a driving force behind any of the policies that have been pursued under his presidency. so his absence from the scene is not likely going to impact any particular impact of the policy. it is the consequences of his absence however in terms of his absence however in terms of the potential crisis within

the regime, as well as further inviting etc that may bring about certain dynamics, but the idea that he was some sort of a driving force of any particular policy is quite a stretch. vote yes, so on that point, president raisi thought to potentially have been groomed to become iran's next supreme leader, so if that succession does not unfold, do you think it could cause some more domestic turmoil and instability? it certainly can create turmoil within the structures of the regime itself. the competition for this role is very, very intense, but they are trying to keep a lid on it. speculation about president raisi being a frontrunner at this point is reallyjust frontrunner at this point is really just speculation, frontrunner at this point is reallyjust speculation, i don't think it is entirely clear, i don't think the regime really wants its hand to be known on this matter but if

there is any suspicion that they might have been some foul play here, it can really intensify tensions in regards to the secession process. —— succession process will stop if the errani regime ends up in some sort of debilitating crisis at this point and cannot make a decision, you may end up seeing a lesser control of tehran of the militias in iraq and syria that it has been supporting, who actually want to be more aggressive towards the united states than tehran has wanted, and tehran has rein them in. if that is to happen and you actually start seeing these militias start attacking us troops again, then that obviously will be a very problematic situation for the united states. we've had some reaction from global leaders. a white house spokesperson told reporters that presidentjoe biden had been briefed on the situation but did not elaborate further. iraq's prime minister has instructed its interior ministry, as well as the red crescent and other relevant authorities to make resources

available for iran. the president of azerbaijan, ilham aliyev, who was with his iranian counterpart before the accident, sends his country's prayers to president raisi. and russia — one of iran's biggest allies — has also deployed a rescue team, and said it was ready to help investigate the cause of the crash. this is footage from russia, showing a rescue helicopter, which was being loaded onto a plane, which was headed to the mountainous terrain where, as we know, bad weather has been hampering the search. but of course we have had more updates on what is happening but you can take a look here at the bbc

live page. in go to that i can bring you some of the fat reporting through now a breaking piece of news that we gotjust breaking piece of news that we got just a breaking piece of news that we gotjust a matter of minutes ago, saying "according to errani in state tv, no sign of life at the helicopter site. that is coming from the state tv and we should also save the reuters news agency as well has reported that the helicopter was "completely burnt," in the crash, that is citing an iranian official, that latest line of breaking news. of course, that helicopter location was located also with iran's red crescent society, and they said as they were getting closer "that the situation did not appear to be good". let's take us through some of the reporting we have from our colleagues at bbc

persian, who have key contacts on all of this and exactly what is happening there in iran. we have a post from our colleague who is in new york, and he says there is no clarity, but there is a familiar stage being set for iranians, and he says here, for iranians, and he says here, for those of us who lived in iran in the late 1980s, the days leading up to the official announcement of the death of ayatollah khamenei, the founder of the islamic republic, and the images of the funeral, are etched into our memory. and the islamic republic media a pruritus prepare the ground by asking people to pray for the leader, and of course we had heard that announcement in the past few minutes. loyalist responded by gathering and masks and at the crack of dawn those moods shifted from praying to his health to

mourning his loss, and then the state broadcast at 7am, and state broadcast at 7am, and state media reports and the tone of the current leader ayatollah khamenei seems to be setting a similar stage, according to our bbc persian colleague by asking the public to pray, also with loyalists gathering at a square in tehran to do so and also reassurances that the day—to—day running of the affairs of the country won't be impacted. he said while we await clarity over what happened at the crash site, reading the tea leaves points to the regime preparing this familiar playback. another post as well from another colleague at bbc persia. our senior reporter there. they are pointing out what he calls iran's poor aviation safety record, saying that the cause of the helicopter crash is not yet known, but saying that iran has a poor air transport safety

record, and this is at least partly the result of decades of us sanctions, which have severely weakened its aerial fleet. it severely weakened its aerial fleet. ., , ., severely weakened its aerial fleet. . , ., ., ., fleet. it was a model made in the united — fleet. it was a model made in the united states _ fleet. it was a model made in the united states and - fleet. it was a model made in the united states and could l fleet. it was a model made in l the united states and could not have been sold to iran since the i979 have been sold to iran since the 1979 revolution. previous ministers have died in a plane or helicopter crashes, and when reformists lead iran's governments they aimed to negotiate a deal with the west that would see those sanctions lifted. however, these efforts, and our viewers will remember, stored when president trump withdrew from the deal and reimpose sanctions of course over the development of iran's nuclear weapons. so reformers

were opposed, mocked by hardliners who insisted iran could rely on its domestic industries and foreign allies to improve aviation safety. just some context fare on the live blog page, which you will find very useful as we continue to cover this breaking news. but we can also bring in... joining me now is negar mortazavi, seniorfellow at the center for international policy and host of the iran podcast. very good to have you with us as we track this developing story. what do you make of the latest that we are now hearing? well, the latest that i am seeing is the remains of the crash site, i mean, it is a very developing story, and also the announcement that there is no sign of life so i think at this point the assumption is they have passed, that they are

dead, and this is very significant for the country, two top officials, the president and the foreign minister, if there is in fact confirmed dead, this would be a major incident, fairly unprecedented in modern errani in history these two top officials to suddenly pass, it would have major ramifications for iran's domestic politics, foreign policy, and it would just be followed probably by a period of relevant chaos. just thinkin: period of relevant chaos. just thinking about _ period of relevant chaos. just thinking about what we could see in the coming hours, days, as you say, two people who are pro —— who are high profile dignitaries in the country, so this is relatively unprecedented, but how does iran mourn its dignitaries, and what a transfer of power look like? ~ , .,

what a transfer of power look like? , ., like? well, they would possibly be, they usually _ like? well, they would possibly be, they usually would - like? well, they would possibly be, they usually would be - be, they usually would be announced days of mourning, so national days of mourning, where the entire country will essentially be off and will be mourning, and notjust one top official but two top officials in this case, the president and the foreign minister. first of all the vice president will be replacing the president, if the president is dead, and then he is required with the help of the speaker of the parliament and other top officials to essentially assemble a replacement, and that a new presidential election, within 50 days for the public to elect a new president, so having a slate of candidates, organising an election, that will all be very complicated and difficult in this short amount of time. but then at the same time i want to emphasise that the

president is not the number one person in iran, so there is still the supreme leader at the top of the political spectrum, and the supreme leader has already announced that this incident won't create any disruptions in the working of the country, so i think that would provide some form of continuity. it is not like a country where the head of state would have to be replaced, but i think it will still be a very difficult and challenging time considering the event of the region, the expanding war in the middle east.— region, the expanding war in the middle east. yes. what do ou think the middle east. yes. what do you think potentially _ the middle east. yes. what do you think potentially could - the middle east. yes. what do you think potentially could be | you think potentially could be the impact there, as we continue to see the war between israel and gaza?— israel and gaza? well, iran has been indirectly _ israel and gaza? well, iran has been indirectly involved - israel and gaza? well, iran has been indirectly involved in - been indirectly involved in this war on the side of the axis of resistance so—called

with its allies, the houthis, and a share in iraq and also hamas. so even though it is not a direct involvement or confrontation, in a way it is party to the war, and so that has consumed much of the country's general foreign policy. now the country will have to turn inward and resolve this chaos, and it will take away from the resources they are investing on theirforeign policy and it will create disruptions, political disruptions, political disruptions, potentially social also, the country is coming out of two years of mass protests, anti—government protests, and very serious crisis, this president if in fact dead, the late president or the president was not a very popular one, and so to try to replace and also would just be a probably adding more fuel to that fire. i

would just be a probably adding more fuel to that fire.— more fuel to that fire. i want to ask potentially _ more fuel to that fire. i want to ask potentially what - more fuel to that fire. i want to ask potentially what you l to ask potentially what you think this could mean for the nuclear programme? just last week the iranian foreign minister he was also a board that helicopter had met with a head of the international atomic agency, who continue to demand for greater access to iran's nuclear facilities. essentially any major decision does come from the top, so the president is not the only decision maker. in this case he wasn't even around when the decisions were ready set. there are still a long—term strategy and policy so i don't think that long—term strategy of a country will be impacted, but as you said, the foreign minister, the main diplomat, the on boy and the vehicle for diplomacy or nuclear

negotiations, the outward facing of the nuclear programme, if dead, would have to be replaced, and that will also create disruptions in any potential working with the atomic energy agency, with the west, ps, in any form of negotiations and agreements on a nuclear site. so this will also at least create disruptions on the diplomatic side. ., ., ., side. ten one, irani and journalist _ side. ten one, irani and journalist and _ side. ten one, irani and journalist and political l journalist and political analyst, we will leave it there for now but thank you so much for now but thank you so much for your analysis on this breaking news story. we can go over now to discuss those developments with our bbc persian correspondent. khashayarjoneidi. good to have you with us. bring it up with the latest your hearing. it up with the latest your hearing-— it up with the latest your hearin. ., ., , ., . , hearing. iranian news agencies are reporting _ hearing. iranian news agencies are reporting the _ hearing. iranian news agencies

are reporting the crash - hearing. iranian news agencies are reporting the crash site - are reporting the crash site has been identified, and they have identified the helicopter which carried the president, the foreign minister and a few other officials. iran's 24—hour news channel has just reported that they have seen no sign of president raisi or the other passengers on board the helicopter to be alive. so this is what we have heard so far. that is the news channel announcing this. we haven't heard official words from the country's officials, but what we know, it is morning in iran, and they have identified the crash site. news agencies are publishing and posting pictures of that site, but so far no official word about the whereabouts of the president, the foreign minister and the rest of the passengers on board the helicopter. ii

rest of the passengers on board the helicopter.— the helicopter. if we look back to history. _ the helicopter. if we look back to history, the _ the helicopter. if we look back to history, the 1980s, - the helicopter. if we look back to history, the 1980s, the - to history, the 1980s, the death of the ayatollahs then, what would an official announcement potentially look like? what kind of ceremony might we be expecting? well, the position — might we be expecting? well, the position of— might we be expecting? well, the position of ayatollah - the position of ayatollah khamenei is the leader of the revolution and the leader of the republic is very much different than the president. the president is number two in terms of executive power. the leader is the supreme leader, the final arbiter, so it has a different position, but as you mentioned in the 19805 we had assassinations where a president from a sitting president from a sitting president and sitting prime minister were a55a55inated and killed. back then, that's like 40 killed. back then, that's like a0 year5 killed. back then, that's like a0 years ago, more than that, and the way the government used to communicate with the people was very different. there was

not a time of social media. but what we are expecting i5 not a time of social media. but what we are expecting is an official announcement, an official announcement, an official mourning period to be announced, and then there is the fact that the question is how the administrative proce55 how the administrative process will work, and that is according to the iranian constitution, a president, if he is incapacitated, i5 constitution, a president, if he is incapacitated, is dead or is missing, will be replaced by his first vice president, and thenit his first vice president, and then it is upon the first vice president and the heads of the parliament and the judiciary to hold an election in 50 days to elect a new president. but given that the president is not the top leader of the country, the top leader of the country, the command and the chief of the command and the chief of the armed force5 i5 the command and the chief of the armed force5 is the leader. the main decision—maker, in

terms of foreign policy, internal piracy, is the leader. so there won't be a power vacuum. the question is about, long term, ebrahim rai5i wa5 long term, ebrahim rai5i was among one of the few people which were speculated to be the successor of the current leader, ayatollah khamenei, who is 85 years old, and no i5 85 years old, and no official success has been designated for him. ebrahim rai5i wa5 designated for him. ebrahim rai5i was one of the people who was very much talked about and speculated that might have the chance of being the successor to the current leader, so now he's out the picture, i have to add that we still have no confirmation about his situation, but if something has happened to him, he is out of the picture, and the choices for choosing the next leader will be narrowed down by one person. will be narrowed down by one erson. �* , ., .,

person. and in terms of, and aaain person. and in terms of, and again reinforcing _ person. and in terms of, and again reinforcing your - person. and in terms of, and again reinforcing your point l again reinforcing your point there, we do not know the exact outcome of what has happened, but if the west is confirmed, what do you think his legacy will be? he is someone that we know has a record of being a hardliner. know has a record of being a hardliner-— hardliner. well, if one day somebody _ hardliner. well, if one day somebody sits _ hardliner. well, if one day somebody sits down - hardliner. well, if one day somebody sits down and l hardliner. well, if one day - somebody sits down and writes the history of the islamic republic, and the presidency of the islamic republic, ebrahim rai5i won't be among the most popular presidents. fir5t rai5i won't be among the most popular presidents. first of all, this president has a history of being known to be part of the committee, which was responsible for handing out execution sentences, death sentences, to thousands of leftist pri5oner5 during the 19805. so his name is attached

to the mass violation of human rights to that period. later on, when he became iran's chief justice, again his name is somehow accompanied by these violations of human rights, which have happened throughout these years of the islamic republic in iran. a5 these years of the islamic republic in iran. as a president, his name will be a reminder of economic hardship, inflation, the brutal 5uppre55ion inflation, the brutal suppression of anti—government protests in the past two yea r5, protests in the past two yea rs, and i have to say that of course iran is a polarised cour5e iran is a polarised society, very polari5ed. there are people who are against the regime, there are people who are opposed to the policies of the regime, and if you went on twitter today, or other social media, you will have seen how

the users were reacting to the report of his helicopter being disappeared, people are making jokes about the situation in the forest with the animals, with the bears all the walls, people making different sorts ofjoke5 people making different sorts of jokes about people making different sorts ofjoke5 about him, but then, at the same time, if you tune into the iranian tv, you would have seen people in cities and towns acro55 have seen people in cities and towns across the country town5 across the country gathering in main 5quare5, praying, crying and praying for his safety. but i have to add that the government's base has been shrinking throughout these years because of economic hardship, because of corruption, because of the suppression of the acting government protest5, but that is what is important to keep in mind is that ebrahim rai5i would not be one of the most popular presidents in the history of the islamic republic.—

history of the islamic reublic. ., . ., republic. thank you so much for that assessment. _ joining me now is negar mortazavi, senior fellow at the center for international policy and host of the iran podcast. we can go back to her now. negar, really get to have you with us on this developing 5tory. do you think there is the potential here, if this is confirmed, that this could cause any kind of instability in the country, particularly when it comes to who could take the place in the succession chain when it comes to the supreme leader, bearing in mind 5upreme leader, bearing in mind of course that he had been the person who had been kind of pointed at, even if it was unofficially questioned bark thank you for having me. yes, i am just seeing image5 thank you for having me. yes, i am just seeing images of essentially nothing left but e55entially nothing left but the tale of the chopper, the helicopter, so again, assuming that this is confirmed that they are dead or they have passed, the president and also

the foreign minister, this will be a major incident, and it will create disruptions in5ide will create disruptions inside that country politically, socially, in the short and also in the long term. in the short, because they would have to be elections within 50 days, and we know in the previous election where ibrahim me —— where ebrahim rai5i came out of, there were hi5toric low turnout5, and very di5content voter ba5e. and for his replacement i also don't think it will be allowed any popular candidates to run as they didn't with ebrahim rai5i �*5 election, so he will most likely be replaced by i would assume equally unpopular or a55ume equally unpopular or maybe even more unpopular candidate, and then in the long term, he was also seen as a potential contender for the

next 5upreme leader's 5ucce55ion. the current ayatollah indicates of his death, once the supreme leader pa55e5, as the previous one dead, there will be the question of succession, and at that moment, the person would have to be with that 5late that moment, the person would have to be with that slate of candidates, that sort of candidates, that sort of candidates would have to say very fast and nobody knows when thatis very fast and nobody knows when that is going to come, so he was being prepared and groomed ijy was being prepared and groomed by a hardline faction of the islamic republic to be the next 5ucce55or islamic republic to be the next successor to ayatollah khamenei and essentially that long—term project will fail with his potential death, and will probably create even more stability —— instability in the short term, in the long term in the short term, but again empha5i5ing the top leadership of the country is still the supreme leader and a president 5upreme leader and a president is not one that really matters when it comes to the political structure. when it comes to the political structure-—

structure. you started by sa in: structure. you started by saying you _ structure. you started by saying you have - structure. you started by saying you have been - structure. you started by i saying you have been taking structure. you started by - saying you have been taking a look at the wreckage site of where the helicopter had been found, in describing really what appeared to be a disastrous situation there. di5astrou5 situation there. what about iran's aviation record? is there anything you can tell us about that? how up—to—date wa5 can tell us about that? how up—to—date was the kind of equipment that even high—ranking officials would be using? not so much. high-ranking officials would be using? not so much.— high-ranking officials would be using? not so much. their fleet has been part — using? not so much. their fleet has been part of— using? not so much. their fleet has been part of economic - has been part of economic sanctions on the country, the aviation industry has also taken a serious toll especially because most aircraft and aviation equipment are made in the west, sara errani i5 aviation equipment are made in the west, sara errani is to have american, french planes and one of the problems they are dealing with is they can't even acce55 spare parts as a

result of sanctions. today, ageing bleach, they have had to buy aircraft, and aviation from russia or other quality sources or second—hand, russia or other quality sources orsecond—hand, u5ed, russia or other quality sources or second—hand, used, and russia or other quality sources orsecond—hand, used, and it russia or other quality sources or second—hand, used, and it is an issue the country has been dealing with. also, with the incompetence within the system, that has exacerbated the impact of these sanctions, including in the aviation industry. we also saw that they made request to other countries internationally for help on this, the european commission i believe has provided satellite imagery, so in that sense it is not a very well—equipped door has access to that kind of technology is also very limited. and in this case, as

top officials