it's on. a rain—soaked rishi sunak calls the election. why is he taking the gamble now? drums! a little guitar, please. one, two, three, four. earlier today, i spoke with his majesty the king to request the dissolution of parliament. we will have a general election on the 4th ofjuly. look around our country. the sewage in our rivers. people waiting on trolleys in a&e. crime, virtually unpunished. mortgages and food prices, through the roof. _ it's all a direct result of the tory chaos in. westminster. # show me, show me, show me, show what you got... immigration is finally

coming down and we are stopping the boats with our rwanda partnership. # it's on, it's on, it's on...# on the 5th ofjuly, either keir starmer or i will be prime minister. he has shown time and time again that he will take the easy way out and do anything to get power. # it's on, it's on # ok, now # are you ready? # yeah! # one, two, one, two, three, four.# good evening. it definitely didn't feel like summer when the prime minister announced today we're going to the polls on the 4th ofjuly. in the event, rishi sunak was drowned out not only by the rain, but by the sound of the 1997 labour anthem, things can only get better. perhaps it should have been things

can only get wetter. it caught westminster by surprise. it's a gamble. some conservative mps think it's madness, when the party is 20 points behind in the polls. we'll talk tonight to professor sirjohn curtice — elections guru, to kelly beaver — the head of ipsos. we'll hear from conservative, labour, snp and lib dem politicians, as well as former director of communications to david cameron sir craig oliver, and sir keir starmer�*s biographer, tom baldwin. but first, nick was first to pick up on rumours swirling last night. nick, why now? you were right. at this very table last night as you say, i reported on what i described as massive rumours that rishi sunak would make that election announcement today and the election could be onjuly 4th. then we had complete silence from number 10. in a way, that is understandable because when you announce an election, there are protocols you have to follow, you have to seek permission for a dissolution of parliament from the manic and you have to proceed with some care. and you want to have an element of surprise. —— from the monarch. then we had a lengthy speech by the prime

minister completely soaked in the rain, reminiscent of the former french president francois holland of the day he was inaugurated soaked in rain and he sadly never recovered his political authority from that. i was on the other side of the gates in whitehall trying to catch cabinet ministers, i could hear steve bray playing out the labour anthem and i thought that would be caught by the microphones. the prime minister was unlucky, it was the weather. and when the prime minister calls an election, they have to have control over the timing, but they don't have control over the logistics. they basically have to do it in the street, in downing street because there has to be an l —— element of constitutional propriety. you have spoken to the king and you also need to make a political speech. vote for me and not the other guy. and that

means you cannot do it in that £2 million press conference centre inside downing street, hence the problem. so in a sense, you can understand that. but i do find it very difficult to believe that the david cameron team or the tony blair team would have allowed that to happen. they would have had a robust plan b. and the problem for prime minister is he needs everything behind him because he enters the selection with all the data saying this country wants change and his principal message is, don't take the risk of change —— the problem for rishi sunak. after that speech, cabinet ministers fanned out and i spoke to some of them.— cabinet ministers fanned out and i spoke to some of them. michael gove, is this winnable? _ spoke to some of them. michael gove, is this winnable? we _ spoke to some of them. michael gove, is this winnable? we have _ spoke to some of them. michael gove, is this winnable? we have a _ spoke to some of them. michael gove, is this winnable? we have a strong - is this winnable? we have a strong plan, _ is this winnable? we have a strong plan, we _ is this winnable? we have a strong plan, we are — is this winnable? we have a strong plan, we are going to win this. can rishi sunak _ plan, we are going to win this. (1531 rishi sunak connect with the plan, we are going to win this. can rishi sunak connect with the british people? rishi sunak connect with the british --eole? ~ . , rishi sunak connect with the british ”eole?~ ., ,,., rishi sunak connect with the british --eole?~ . , ., people? what is your mood today? i can't wait, people? what is your mood today? i can't wait. i — people? what is your mood today? i can't wait, i love _ people? what is your mood today? i can't wait, i love elections. - can't wait, i love elections. presumably. _ can't wait, i love elections. presumably, you _ can't wait, i love elections. presumably, you want - can't wait, i love elections. presumably, you want to l can't wait, i love elections. l presumably, you want to see can't wait, i love elections. - presumably, you want to see the right people making the case because you are worried they are not the right people on the airwaves? the prime minister knows exactly what he's doing. — prime minister knows exactly what he's doing, he has made a bold call, i cannot_ he's doing, he has made a bold call, i cannot wait — he's doing, he has made a bold call, i cannot wait to have a fight with a pretty— i cannot wait to have a fight with a

pretty weak labour party.- pretty weak labour party. victoria prentice, pretty weak labour party. victoria prentice. your— pretty weak labour party. victoria prentice, your mood _ pretty weak labour party. victoria prentice, your mood entering - pretty weak labour party. victoria prentice, your mood entering thisi prentice, your mood entering this election campaign? it is prentice, your mood entering this election campaign?— prentice, your mood entering this election campaign? it is going to be ureat, but election campaign? it is going to be great. but i — election campaign? it is going to be great, but i have _ election campaign? it is going to be great, but i have just _ election campaign? it is going to be great, but i have just got _ election campaign? it is going to be great, but i have just got to - election campaign? it is going to be great, but i have just got to go. - great, but i have just got to go. you were ready for rishi in the summer of 2022, is britain ready for rishi? , , , ., rishi? yes, definitely, it is going to be a really _ rishi? yes, definitely, it is going to be a really good _ rishi? yes, definitely, it is going to be a really good campaign, i rishi? yes, definitely, it is going i to be a really good campaign, really fantastic campaign which we are going to win. bud fantastic campaign which we are going to win-— fantastic campaign which we are auoin to win. �* ., , ., , ., going to win. and who should stroll b but a going to win. and who should stroll by but a former— going to win. and who should stroll by but a former member _ going to win. and who should stroll by but a former member of - going to win. and who should stroll by but a former member of the - by but a former member of the cabinet? ben wallace. you are not standing. you are not standing, but do you have high hopes for your party? do you have high hopes for your -a ? �* do you have high hopes for your .a ? �* ., ., , , do you have high hopes for your .a ?�* ., ., do you have high hopes for your party? i've always got high hopes because labour— party? i've always got high hopes because labour don't _ party? i've always got high hopes because labour don't have - party? i've always got high hopes because labour don't have a - party? i've always got high hopes| because labour don't have a plan, pretty simple. they are going to stick theirfinger in pretty simple. they are going to stick their finger in the air and gamble on keir starmer who one minute backsjeremy corbyn. i wouldn't place my house on him and rachel reeves. he has the six steps. they were so boring and a non—entity, including one that was already in existence. i set up the board of command when i was security

minister, so i'm not sure there is a magic wand from keir. so minister, so i'm not sure there is a magic wand from keir. so everyone is borrowin: magic wand from keir. so everyone is borrowing today- _ magic wand from keir. so everyone is borrowing today. well, _ magic wand from keir. so everyone is borrowing today. well, he _ magic wand from keir. so everyone is borrowing today. well, he is - magic wand from keir. so everyone is borrowing today. well, he is very - borrowing today. well, he is very borin: borrowing today. well, he is very boring and _ borrowing today. well, he is very boring and his — borrowing today. well, he is very boring and his six _ borrowing today. well, he is very boring and his six pledges - borrowing today. well, he is very boring and his six pledges are - borrowing today. well, he is very l boring and his six pledges are very boring. irate boring and his six pledges are very borina. ~ . ~ boring and his six pledges are very borina. . ., ,, ., boring and his six pledges are very borina. ~ ., ,, ., ., boring. we will talk to labour live a little later- _ boring. we will talk to labour live a little later. talk _ boring. we will talk to labour live a little later. talk us _ boring. we will talk to labour live a little later. talk us through - boring. we will talk to labour live a little later. talk us through the | a little later. talk us through the timin: of a little later. talk us through the timing of this. — a little later. talk us through the timing of this, nick. _ a little later. talk us through the timing of this, nick. yes, - a little later. talk us through the timing of this, nick. yes, in - timing of this, nick. yes, in disbelief among conservative mps, i lost count of the conservative mps a minister who came up just ministers who came up to me and said, what is going on? you know more about what is going on in my government than i do. and then disbelieve because most people thought when the prime minister was talking about the election the second half of the year, that was the autumn by which time, they thought we would have interest rate cuts. iii—minute minister giving the assessment said they had a gun to the head. another said it all sounded very strange. another minister close to rishi sunak looked completely shaken and said to me, i know rishi loves economic data, but basing your

decision about a general election on one—month's set of economic figures is not rational. another minister i spoke to said that they believe, a minister believes the reason why the prime minister has done this is they think there are enough letters to trigger a no—confidence vote and he had done that to pre—empt that. i did a tweet this afternoon saying that more letters had gone in. my understanding is that the number of letters currently is nowhere near enough to trigger that no—confidence vote. enough to trigger that no-confidence vote. . ~ enough to trigger that no-confidence vote. ., ,, , ., enough to trigger that no-confidence vote. ., ~' , ., , enough to trigger that no-confidence vote. ., ,, i. , . a vote. 0k, thank you very much, nick, thank you- — vote. 0k, thank you very much, nick, thank you- well. _ vote. 0k, thank you very much, nick, thank you. well, this _ vote. 0k, thank you very much, nick, thank you. well, this was _ vote. 0k, thank you very much, nick, thank you. well, this was the - thank you. well, this was the reaction from some opposition mps. i was in parliament this afternoon. delighted. it gives us all the opportunity to get rid of the tories, be that in scotland or be that across the rest of the uk. that is a good thing. they have completely destroyed the uk economy over the course of the last ia years.

they dragged us out of the european union, against our will. they put up energy prices and food prices and mortgages. in the meantime, everyone back at home was sitting, watching, trying, struggling to get by. so, this is a good day to get rid of the tories. the big decision facing voters in scotland is, who do they want to represent them in westminster? i mean, shock is my initial reaction. i wasn't expecting it. did you swear? yeah, definitely swore. also, all day, iwasjust, like, everybody's lost the run of themselves. i don't think there is going to be an election. but, yeah, halfway through the day, it became fairly evident that this was going to happen. look, it's like ripping off the bandage, isn't it? it feels like we've all been on tenterhooks for a long time about when it might be. and it's no way to really live a life or run a country, not knowing and itjust, you know... baby out with bath water, all of a sudden. but, yeah, that's democracy. i think this general election is going to give the countryj the opportunity they've been crying out for for a long time, _ to finally kick rishi sunak's failing conservatives - out of government. be honest, were you a little taken aback today?

i was, yes. my money had been on a may general i election and i was very surprised i when that didn't happen, - but to be honest, we have been ready for a long time, - ready to go on any day that it's been called. i think a lot of people were surprised by it. being called today, but we're absolutely fighting fit. - we are raring to go. our political panel tonight, on this night of nights — sir craig oliver was director of communications for david cameron when he was prime minister during his 2015 election win and 2016 referendum loss. tom baldwin is biographer of sir keir starmer and was ed miliband's head of communications as leader of the opposition. and kelly beaver is chief executive of pollsters ipsos in the uk and ireland. first, let's hearfrom both main party leaders today. these uncertain times call for a clear plan and bold action to chart

a course to a secure future. you must choose in this election who has that plan, who is prepared to take the bold action necessary to secure a better future for our country and our children. a vote for labour is a vote for stability. economic and political. a politics that treads more lightly on all our lives. a vote to stop the chaos. sir craig oliver, that look of rishi sunak in the rain, with the labour anthem blowing in the background, is that how you would have wanted an election announcement? trio. that how you would have wanted an election announcement?— that how you would have wanted an election announcement? no, when i was listening — election announcement? no, when i was listening to _ election announcement? no, when i was listening to it _ election announcement? no, when i was listening to it and _ election announcement? no, when i was listening to it and i _ election announcement? no, when i was listening to it and i think - election announcement? no, when i was listening to it and i think it - was listening to it and i think it was listening to it and i think it was the — was listening to it and i think it was the song that was the thing that really— was the song that was the thing that really did _ was the song that was the thing that really did it for me. the rain is not great _ really did it for me. the rain is not great and not ideal you send somebody out in the rain, but when you can _ somebody out in the rain, but when you can hear— somebody out in the rain, but when you can hear the anthem of the labour— you can hear the anthem of the labour party blaring out so loud you can barely _ labour party blaring out so loud you can barely concentrate on what the prime _ can barely concentrate on what the prime minister is saying, that is a real problem. sol prime minister is saying, that is a real problem. so i think it was a real problem. so i think it was a real embarrassment. and i think what has happened here is rishi sunak's team _ has happened here is rishi sunak's team have —

has happened here is rishi sunak's team have tried to throw a grenade into the _ team have tried to throw a grenade into the room and see what chaos ensues _ into the room and see what chaos ensues from it and the first step of that chaos — ensues from it and the first step of that chaos was seeing the prime minister— that chaos was seeing the prime minister wet and drowned out by the noise _ minister wet and drowned out by the noise of— minister wet and drowned out by the noise of labour's anthem. and minister wet and drowned out by the noise of labour's anthem.— noise of labour's anthem. and this throwin: a noise of labour's anthem. and this throwing a grenade _ noise of labour's anthem. and this throwing a grenade into _ noise of labour's anthem. and this throwing a grenade into the - noise of labour's anthem. and this throwing a grenade into the room | noise of labour's anthem. and this| throwing a grenade into the room is so craig describes, is that going to put the frighteners of labour? labour's messages to stop the chaos and rishi sunak even as the election begins is causing more of it. i think it is an extraordinary contrast between those two openers. sunak had been waiting for a break in the weather and he had been waiting for better economic statistics. yet one—month of relatively good economic statistics and he runs out of downing street and he runs out of downing street and announces an election. so he starts speaking, the rain begins to pour down again. that is the image people will remember from today, soaking wet prime minister drowned and out. , ., ,, ., . and out. does that kind of thing cut throu~h to and out. does that kind of thing cut through to voters? _ and out. does that kind of thing cut through to voters? are _ and out. does that kind of thing cut through to voters? are they - and out. does that kind of thing cut through to voters? are they really i through to voters? are they really going to be stuck with that image? i going to be stuck with that image? i think they are more concerned about their own _ think they are more concerned about their own day—to—day_ think they are more concerned about their own day—to—day lives, - think they are more concerned about their own day—to—day lives, quite - their own day—to—day lives, quite frankly _ their own day—to—day lives, quite frankly. looking _ their own day—to—day lives, quite frankly. looking at _ their own day—to—day lives, quite frankly. looking at the _ their own day—to—day lives, quite

frankly. looking at the overall. their own day—to—day lives, quite i frankly. looking at the overall mood of the _ frankly. looking at the overall mood of the nation, — frankly. looking at the overall mood of the nation, statistics _ frankly. looking at the overall mood of the nation, statistics and - frankly. looking at the overall mood of the nation, statistics and how - of the nation, statistics and how the nation — of the nation, statistics and how the nation feels _ of the nation, statistics and how the nation feels coming - of the nation, statistics and how the nation feels coming into - of the nation, statistics and how the nation feels coming into the| the nation feels coming into the selection — the nation feels coming into the selection. they— the nation feels coming into the selection. they want _ the nation feels coming into the selection. they want to - the nation feels coming into the selection. they want to change, the nation feels coming into the - selection. they want to change, they think the _ selection. they want to change, they think the country— selection. they want to change, they think the country is _ selection. they want to change, they think the country is going _ selection. they want to change, they think the country is going in - selection. they want to change, they think the country is going in the - think the country is going in the wrong _ think the country is going in the wrong direction _ think the country is going in the wrong direction and _ think the country is going in the wrong direction and messages i think the country is going in the - wrong direction and messages around change _ wrong direction and messages around change may— wrong direction and messages around change may well— wrong direction and messages around change may well resonate _ wrong direction and messages around change may well resonate and - wrong direction and messages around change may well resonate and cut - change may well resonate and cut through — change may well resonate and cut throu~h. . ., ,, change may well resonate and cut throu~h. ., ., ., change may well resonate and cut throu~h. ., ., i. ., ., through. can i ask you about what nick was saying. _ through. can i ask you about what nick was saying, letters _ through. can i ask you about what nick was saying, letters going - through. can i ask you about what nick was saying, letters going in l through. can i ask you about what | nick was saying, letters going in of no confidence, conservative mps sending them to segree and brady because they don't have confidence in their own prime minister and that's why he has made the decision he has today, sir craig? trio. that's why he has made the decision he has today, sir craig?— he has today, sir craig? no, i think that is complete _ he has today, sir craig? no, i think that is complete nonsense. - he has today, sir craig? no, i think that is complete nonsense. if- he has today, sir craig? no, i think that is complete nonsense. if the i that is complete nonsense. if the conservative party was going to move against him, they would have done it after the local elections. to do it now makes no sense. what is really happening here and i think the only way in which he can make sense of this decision is this is the strategy of somebody who thinks they are going to lose, but thinks he can make it less bad by going now and causing a bit of chaos. it puts labour in a position of uncertainty, are they ready? they will have a lot of questions put to them. also, the reform party are quite significant

in this. i think rishi sunak was worried they would organise, what was nigel farage was going to do, would they have enough selected candidates in seats? so it is the strategy of somebody trying to make things less bad, i think.— things less bad, i think. would you auree things less bad, i think. would you aaree with things less bad, i think. would you agree with that, _ things less bad, i think. would you agree with that, tom _ things less bad, i think. would you agree with that, tom baldwin? - things less bad, i think. would you| agree with that, tom baldwin? not really come — agree with that, tom baldwin? not really come in that his essential message — really come in that his essential message in his campaign appears to be he _ message in his campaign appears to be he has _ message in his campaign appears to be he has a — message in his campaign appears to be he has a plan that is working. it is one—month of good statistics, if it is working, i don't understand, why would — it is working, i don't understand, why would you not wait until november to prove it is working? the suspicion _ november to prove it is working? the suspicion will beat you have a blip and you _ suspicion will beat you have a blip and you are — suspicion will beat you have a blip and you are cutting and running now. we have _ and you are cutting and running now. we have had — and you are cutting and running now. we have had a lot of macro indicators _ we have had a lot of macro indicators start _ we have had a lot of macro indicators start to - we have had a lot of macro indicators start to move - we have had a lot of macroi indicators start to move and we have had a lot of macro - indicators start to move and we are seeing _ indicators start to move and we are seeing public— indicators start to move and we are seeing public attitudes _ indicators start to move and we are seeing public attitudes on - indicators start to move and we are seeing public attitudes on some - indicators start to move and we are seeing public attitudes on some ofl seeing public attitudes on some of those _ seeing public attitudes on some of those shift~ — seeing public attitudes on some of those shift. we _ seeing public attitudes on some of those shift. we have _ seeing public attitudes on some of those shift. we have tracked - those shift. we have tracked economic— those shift. we have tracked economic optimism - those shift. we have tracked economic optimism over- those shift. we have tracked - economic optimism over decades and we are _ economic optimism over decades and we are generally— economic optimism over decades and we are generally a _ economic optimism over decades and we are generally a nation _ economic optimism over decades and we are generally a nation of- we are generally a nation of pessimists _ we are generally a nation of pessimists around - we are generally a nation of pessimists around the - we are generally a nation of pessimists around the state we are generally a nation of. pessimists around the state of we are generally a nation of- pessimists around the state of our economy — pessimists around the state of our economy and _ pessimists around the state of our economy. and for— pessimists around the state of our economy. and for the _ pessimists around the state of our economy. and for the first - pessimists around the state of our economy. and for the first quarterj economy. and for the first quarter of this— economy. and for the first quarter of this year. — economy. and for the first quarter ofthis year. it— economy. and for the first quarter of this year, it was _ economy. and for the first quarter of this year, it was sitting - economy. and for the first quarter of this year, it was sitting at - of this year, it was sitting at —28%. _ of this year, it was sitting at -28%, it— of this year, it was sitting at -28%, it is— of this year, it was sitting at —28%, it is now— of this year, it was sitting at —28%, it is now sitting - of this year, it was sitting at —28%, it is now sitting at. of this year, it was sitting at —28%, it is now sitting at —4 of this year, it was sitting at. —28%, it is now sitting at —4 in of this year, it was sitting at - —28%, it is now sitting at —4 in the month— —28%, it is now sitting at —4 in the month of— —28%, it is now sitting at —4 in the month of may, _ —28%, it is now sitting at —4 in the month of may, so _ —28%, it is now sitting at —4 in the month of may, so it _ —28%, it is now sitting at —4 in the month of may, so it is _ —28%, it is now sitting at —4 in the month of may, so it is starting - —28%, it is now sitting at —4 in the month of may, so it is starting to. month of may, so it is starting to live _ month of may, so it is starting to live will— month of may, so it is starting to live will that _ month of may, so it is starting to live. will that continue? - month of may, so it is starting to live. will that continue? you - month of may, so it is starting to live. will that continue? you can| live. will that continue? you can see perhaps _

live. will that continue? you can see perhaps if— live. will that continue? you can see perhaps if you _ live. will that continue? you can see perhaps if you are _ live. will that continue? you can see perhaps if you are looking i live. will that continue? you can i see perhaps if you are looking and hoping _ see perhaps if you are looking and hoping for— see perhaps if you are looking and hoping for change _ see perhaps if you are looking and hoping for change on _ see perhaps if you are looking and hoping for change on those - see perhaps if you are looking and hoping for change on those macro| hoping for change on those macro indicators — hoping for change on those macro indicators and _ hoping for change on those macro indicators and you _ hoping for change on those macro indicators and you start _ hoping for change on those macro indicators and you start to - hoping for change on those macro indicators and you start to see - hoping for change on those macro| indicators and you start to see not 'ust indicators and you start to see not just slightly — indicators and you start to see not just slightly better— indicators and you start to see not just slightly better growth - indicators and you start to see notj just slightly better growth figures, but inflation — just slightly better growth figures, but inflation figures _ just slightly better growth figures, but inflation figures and _ just slightly better growth figures, but inflation figures and improve l but inflation figures and improve migration— but inflation figures and improve migration statistics _ but inflation figures and improve migration statistics and - but inflation figures and improve migration statistics and you - but inflation figures and improve migration statistics and you can| but inflation figures and improve i migration statistics and you can see some _ migration statistics and you can see some public— migration statistics and you can see some public attitude _ migration statistics and you can see some public attitude data _ migration statistics and you can see some public attitude data starting l some public attitude data starting to move _ some public attitude data starting to move a — some public attitude data starting to move a little _ some public attitude data starting to move a little bit, _ some public attitude data starting to move a little bit, perhaps- some public attitude data starting to move a little bit, perhaps you i to move a little bit, perhaps you might _ to move a little bit, perhaps you might feel. _ to move a little bit, perhaps you might feel, perhaps _ to move a little bit, perhaps you might feel, perhaps you - to move a little bit, perhaps you might feel, perhaps you might l to move a little bit, perhaps you i might feel, perhaps you might feel to move a little bit, perhaps you - might feel, perhaps you might feel a little bit _ might feel, perhaps you might feel a little bit of— might feel, perhaps you might feel a little bit of hope _ might feel, perhaps you might feel a little bit of hope and _ might feel, perhaps you might feel a little bit of hope and perhaps - might feel, perhaps you might feel a little bit of hope and perhaps that. little bit of hope and perhaps that is what _ little bit of hope and perhaps that is what we — little bit of hope and perhaps that is what we are _ little bit of hope and perhaps that is what we are seeing. _ little bit of hope and perhaps that is what we are seeing. ifilthy- little bit of hope and perhaps that is what we are seeing. why wouldn't ou no is what we are seeing. why wouldn't you go longer? _ is what we are seeing. why wouldn't you go longer? if— is what we are seeing. why wouldn't you go longer? if you _ is what we are seeing. why wouldn't you go longer? if you go _ is what we are seeing. why wouldn't you go longer? if you go a _ is what we are seeing. why wouldn't you go longer? if you go a bit - you go longer? if you go a bit loner you go longer? if you go a bit longer and — you go longer? if you go a bit longer and into _ you go longer? if you go a bit longer and into the _ you go longer? if you go a bit longer and into the autumn i you go longer? if you go a bit l longer and into the autumn and winter— longer and into the autumn and winter period. _ longer and into the autumn and winter period, some _ longer and into the autumn and winter period, some of- longer and into the autumn and winter period, some of the - longer and into the autumn and winter period, some of the bigi winter period, some of the big issues — winter period, some of the big issues that— winter period, some of the big issues that matter— winter period, some of the big issues that matter to - winter period, some of the big issues that matter to the - winter period, some of the bigl issues that matter to the public like the — issues that matter to the public like the nhs _ issues that matter to the public like the nhs and _ issues that matter to the public like the nhs and public- issues that matter to the public. like the nhs and public services, they might — like the nhs and public services, they might be _ like the nhs and public services, they might be noisier— like the nhs and public services, they might be noisier signals. i like the nhs and public services, they might be noisier signals. so there _ they might be noisier signals. so there are — they might be noisier signals. so there are four— they might be noisier signals. so there are four big _ they might be noisier signals. so there are four big issues - they might be noisier signals. so there are four big issues for- they might be noisier signals. so there are four big issues for the i there are four big issues for the public— there are four big issues for the public and — there are four big issues for the public and the _ there are four big issues for the public and the nhs _ there are four big issues for the public and the nhs is _ there are four big issues for the public and the nhs is definitely| there are four big issues for the - public and the nhs is definitely one of those _ public and the nhs is definitely one of those and — public and the nhs is definitely one of those and if _ public and the nhs is definitely one of those and if you _ public and the nhs is definitely one of those and if you look— public and the nhs is definitely one of those and if you look into - public and the nhs is definitely one of those and if you look into the - of those and if you look into the autumn— of those and if you look into the autumn period, _ of those and if you look into the autumn period, perhaps- of those and if you look into the autumn period, perhaps that. of those and if you look into the . autumn period, perhaps that would be lighter~ _ autumn period, perhaps that would be lighter~ irlhe_ autumn period, perhaps that would be liahter. ~ . ~ . autumn period, perhaps that would be liahter. ~ ., ,, . ., lighter. we will talk much more about that _ lighter. we will talk much more about that in _ lighter. we will talk much more about that in a _ lighter. we will talk much more about that in a moment - lighter. we will talk much more about that in a moment or - lighter. we will talk much more about that in a moment or two. j i spent the afternon in central lobby, and while i was there, i spoke to steve baker, minister of state for northern ireland. i asked him if the prime minister called an election because he was worried about what could come afterjuly the 4th.

i think the reality is we never take the voters for granted at any stage, and i think this is a good moment to go for it. but it is his call. you know, so much hinges on what a prime minister does. those of us who campaign other than as the leader, you know, we have to follow that lead. it's going to be down to him and how he plays the campaign. he must be confident, i'm happy to follow him. you might lose yourjob. yes. you've got a majority of, what, 4,500? it's about 4,500 now, yes. so you might not be an mp, comejuly the 5th. that is absolutely true, yes. but, you know, i've never taken the voters of wycombe for granted. it's true that without my best ward of hazlemere, i am widely expected to lose. but, you know, i'm optimistic that the people of wycombe prefer conservative government to labour government. i'm very clear that a labour government's the worst kind of government for working people in particular, and so i'm going to be putting myself forward and, of course, hoping to win. but aren't you... aren't you a bit hacked off — and, presumably, some of your colleagues with smaller majorities — because you might be out of a job sooner, injuly, than if an election was in november? my first concern has never been myjob. you know, if i'd been looking after...

but you're only human, come on! yeah, but look, the reality is, if you say that, the truth is, for me, if i'd been looking after my best interests, i would have stayed working in the city for a lot more money than i get as an mp. i stood for election because i was so fed up with politics and politicians, i thought, "emigrate, moan orstand". i've had quite a ia years of trying to do it the way i thought it ought to be done. alas, that's divided opinion as much as it has. so for me personally, yeah, i'll put my name forward and we'll see what people want. but i think for colleagues as a whole, you know, we always knew the polls were going to be tough. we knew this would be a difficult election. i've got great confidence the prime minister will know what he's doing to get us through this campaign. that is interesting that you've got great confidence in him because some people might suggest it's slightly mad. you've just had the local elections. you lost nearly 500 seats. there was a swing in blackpool south from tories to labour of 26%. and you haven't. .. anything he's done, he hasn't been able to shift the opinion polls. well, you know, i've been through a number of fights where, personally, i've led campaigns from a position of abject weakness to considerable success, one way or another,

on three big campaigns. and i've united wings of the party, divided wings of the party. but, you know, in the end, i've manufactured power out of weakness and won. and i think that rishi is aiming to do that, so let's hope he does. you know, politics is about more than waiting to be ahead in the polls and then gently going for it. i'm afraid it is a great contest for power and the public are going to have to decide — do they really want a man with no plan, who'll take us back to square one, as we've been saying? surely, surely square one is liz truss? come on. square one is going back to a government that really doesn't... doesn't know how to deal with the issues we've got. if we had a labour government, do we really think they'd be facing up to the spending challenges of our age? because whatever. .. i've got to pause you there. i mean, spending is high, after14 years of conservative government. er, debt is high and rising. the tax burden is the highest it's been since world war two... yeah. ..and projected to rise, and that's under the conservatives. and i'm grateful that you say that, because i've spent ia years — as long as anyone's been willing to listen to me — talking about the trajectory

of taxes, spending... sure, but that's... ..debt and currency. but whether you have or not, that's your government's record. oh, yeah. and are you... i mean, it's like, you want another five years — what, to carry the trajectory upwards? so i am absolutely clear that because of age—related spending — it's a case i've been making for ia years — the welfare state is headed into deep trouble in our lifetimes. it's something i've discussed with rishi. i know that he understands that what we've got to do is grow the economy and live within our means. as rishi set out today, we're on the other side of a major crisis in the pandemic. he put in place furlough. we then had to put in place enormous help for people with energy. no wonder we're in the position we're in. but i'm very clear that only the conservative party can stand for freedom and sort out the problems that we face. what do you want to do if you're not an mp? skydiving, motorcycling, fast catamaran sailing. erm, a wide range of things i'll do. i think you're talking about work, though. i was talking about work, but that's fine, if that's your answer. i mean, the first thing i'm going to do if i don't win my seat

is have a long break. thank you very much for talking to us on newsnight. thank you. you're welcome. i'm here with labour's shadow business secretary, jonathan reynolds. first, let's hearfrom professor sirjohn curtice, from strathclyde university, who has guided us all through many a bbc election night. welcome back, i hope you've had some sleep since the local elections. steve baker, realistic about the challenges he's facing and there are multiple tory mps in similar positions. multiple tory mps in similar positions-— multiple tory mps in similar ositions. ., ., , ., positions. there are, if the opinion olls are positions. there are, if the opinion polls are right _ positions. there are, if the opinion polls are right the _ positions. there are, if the opinion polls are right the front _ positions. there are, if the opinion polls are right the front line - polls are right the front line unaware the conservative party might succeed in defending a seat successfully and where it might not is roughly constituencies where the conservative lead over labour in percentage terms is 30 points. we are looking at about a 15 point swing. we are deep into what we normally regard as traditional conservative territory. anything

where the majority is much less than about 20 points is also potentially difficult for the conservatives to defend against the liberal democrats. we are talking about many tory mps who perhaps for a while have been anticipating that they might lose but now find that on the ath ofjuly, perhaps rather earlier than many including myself were expecting, they will face the verdict of the electorate and those who perhaps might have thought they had... they will now find it is truncated. had... they will now find it is truncated-— had... they will now find it is truncated. ~ ., ., ,, ., truncated. what do you think about rishi sunak's _ truncated. what do you think about rishi sunak's decision _ truncated. what do you think about rishi sunak's decision today? - truncated. what do you think about | rishi sunak's decision today? there are auoin rishi sunak's decision today? there are going to — rishi sunak's decision today? there are going to be _ rishi sunak's decision today? there are going to be two _ rishi sunak's decision today? ii—ii” are going to be twojudgments rishi sunak's decision today? tic- are going to be twojudgments in rishi sunak's decision today? ii—ii” are going to be twojudgments in the early hours of the 5th ofjuly. either he was extremely brave and has pulled off one of the most remarkable turnaround in british history or he has been foolhardy and precipitated his party into what could be a heavy election defeat, earlier than he needed. back with

ou earlier than he needed. back with you shortly- _ earlier than he needed. back with you shortly. jonathan _ earlier than he needed. back with you shortly. jonathan reynolds, l earlier than he needed. back with - you shortly. jonathan reynolds, from you shortly. jonathan reynolds, from labour, thanks for talking to our audience. what is labour's big offer to the voters? this audience. what is labour's big offer to the voters?— to the voters? this is a chance to chan . e to the voters? this is a chance to change the _ to the voters? this is a chance to change the direction _ to the voters? this is a chance to change the direction of _ to the voters? this is a chance to change the direction of the - to the voters? this is a chance to i change the direction of the country. the country— change the direction of the country. the country needs change. i think the case — the country needs change. i think the case for— the country needs change. i think the case for that is self—evident but now— the case for that is self—evident but now we can go to the public and say this _ but now we can go to the public and say this. look how we have changed ourselves _ say this. look how we have changed ourselves i— say this. look how we have changed ourselves. i know people look at the scale _ ourselves. i know people look at the scale of _ ourselves. i know people look at the scale of the — ourselves. i know people look at the scale of the challenge. today we have _ scale of the challenge. today we have had — scale of the challenge. today we have had that police cannot arrest people. _ have had that police cannot arrest people, the nhs waiting lists at record _ people, the nhs waiting lists at record levels and water companies and sewer— record levels and water companies and sewer levels. i know people ask if politics _ and sewer levels. i know people ask if politics can make a difference when _ if politics can make a difference when you — if politics can make a difference when you have the scale of those challenges. that's why last week we laid out _ challenges. that's why last week we laid out six — challenges. that's why last week we laid out six first steps because we want _ laid out six first steps because we want to— laid out six first steps because we want to show the practical measures, the differences we can take, how we can do— the differences we can take, how we can do things differently and have those _ can do things differently and have those improvements. why can do things differently and have those improvements.— those improvements. why should voters trust _ those improvements. why should voters trust sir _ those improvements. why should voters trust sir keir _ those improvements. why should voters trust sir keir starmer, - voters trust sir keir starmer, whether it is his five missions or

six first steps when he has either ditched or rolled back on so many of his original promises?— his original promises? people can look at ease _ his original promises? people can look at case dominance _ his original promises? people can look at case dominance a - his original promises? people can look at case dominance a here - his original promises? people can look at case dominance a here is| look at case dominance a here is someone — look at case dominance a here is someone who turned around the labour party _ someone who turned around the labour pa . ., , ., ., , , ., party. no, you ignored my question. why should — party. no, you ignored my question. why should they _ party. no, you ignored my question. why should they trust _ party. no, you ignored my question. why should they trust him _ party. no, you ignored my question. why should they trust him when - party. no, you ignored my question. why should they trust him when he i why should they trust him when he has ditched or rolled back so many of his original policies? i has ditched or rolled back so many of his original policies?— of his original policies? i don't think that's — of his original policies? i don't think that's true. _ of his original policies? i don't think that's true. it _ of his original policies? i don't think that's true. it is - of his original policies? i don't l think that's true. it is absolutely true. let think that's true. it is absolutely true- let me _ think that's true. it is absolutely true. let me give _ think that's true. it is absolutely true. let me give you _ think that's true. it is absolutely true. let me give you some - think that's true. it is absolutely - true. let me give you some examples. when he wanted to become the labour leader he said he would abolish tuition fees and defend freedom of movement, all gone. then he promised there would be the big offer of 28 billion a yearfor the there would be the big offer of 28 billion a year for the green transition and he has rolled back on it. three examples. he transition and he has rolled back on it. three examples.— it. three examples. he has put forward a _ it. three examples. he has put forward a set _ it. three examples. he has put forward a set of _ it. three examples. he has put forward a set of missions - it. three examples. he has put forward a set of missions he i it. three examples. he has put - forward a set of missions he wants to achieve — forward a set of missions he wants to achieve-— to achieve. you are ignoring my question- _ to achieve. you are ignoring my question- l'd — to achieve. you are ignoring my question. i'd be _ to achieve. you are ignoring my question. i'd be grateful- to achieve. you are ignoring my question. i'd be grateful if - to achieve. you are ignoring my question. i'd be grateful if you i question. i'd be grateful if you could answer the question. 28 billion wasn't possible after liz truss — billion wasn't possible after liz truss. interest rates were not the same — truss. interest rates were not the same after _ truss. interest rates were not the same after that budget. we have to be honest— same after that budget. we have to be honest and say that these are our ambitions _ be honest and say that these are our ambitions and this is how we will

deliver— ambitions and this is how we will deliver them. ambitions and this is how we will deliverthem. in ambitions and this is how we will deliver them. in that situation there — deliver them. in that situation there was— deliver them. in that situation there was no way we could deliver that _ there was no way we could deliver that but — there was no way we could deliver that. but look at the national wealth— that. but look at the national wealth fund, gb energy, real ambition— wealth fund, gb energy, real ambition to get economic benefits. let me _ ambition to get economic benefits. let me give you some other examples which are nothing to do with the economic outlook.— which are nothing to do with the economic outlook. workers' rights, ori . inall economic outlook. workers' rights, originally you _ economic outlook. workers' rights, originally you were _ economic outlook. workers' rights, originally you were going _ economic outlook. workers' rights, originally you were going to - economic outlook. workers' rights, originally you were going to ban . originally you were going to ban zero—hours contracts but that's not happening — zero—hours contracts but that's not happening any more. yes, it is. no, no, ou happening any more. yes, it is. no, no. you aren't _ happening any more. yes, it is. idrr, no, you aren't banning them. i had a conversation with a union leader. it conversation with a union leader. it is part of our rules for working people — is part of our rules for working --eole. ., . ., ., is part of our rules for working n-eole. ., ., ., ., ., , people. you are going to abolish the house of lords, _ people. you are going to abolish the house of lords, you _ people. you are going to abolish the house of lords, you aren't _ people. you are going to abolish the house of lords, you aren't doing - house of lords, you aren't doing that any more. they are some more examples. why should voters trust sir keir starmer? to do what he says he's going to do this time.— he's going to do this time. because he's going to do this time. because he has a record _ he's going to do this time. because he has a record of— he's going to do this time. because he has a record of public— he's going to do this time. because he has a record of public service . he has a record of public service and he — he has a record of public service and he has _ he has a record of public service and he has a record of how he transformed the labour party. he has a record of dropping _ transformed the labour party. he has a record of dropping pledges. - transformed the labour party. he has a record of dropping pledges. i- a record of dropping pledges. i don't think that's true. on the zero-hours— don't think that's true. on the zero—hours contracts the labour party— zero—hours contracts the labour party is— zero—hours contracts the labour party is committed to ending exploitative zero—hours contracts exploitative zero— hours contracts and we _ exploitative zero—hours contracts and we have set out a means to do so

and we have set out a means to do so and it— and we have set out a means to do so and it is— and we have set out a means to do so and it is a _ and we have set out a means to do so and it is a commitment that will be in the _ and it is a commitment that will be in the manifesto. it is untrue to say that— in the manifesto. it is untrue to say that has changed. we have to fi-ht say that has changed. we have to fight hard — say that has changed. we have to fight hard when people say we are rolling _ fight hard when people say we are rolling back on those commitments because _ rolling back on those commitments because we aren't, it is part of the agenda _ because we aren't, it is part of the agenda and — because we aren't, it is part of the agenda and we will be clear that yes, agenda and we will be clear that yes. the — agenda and we will be clear that yes, the scale of the challenge is ijil, yes, the scale of the challenge is big. you — yes, the scale of the challenge is big, you have to start somewhere and that's— big, you have to start somewhere and that's what _ big, you have to start somewhere and that's what the first six steps are about _ that's what the first six steps are about but they aren't the limits of our ambition. we have other things but they— our ambition. we have other things but they are the changes we are setting — but they are the changes we are setting out all the british people. if setting out all the british people. if it's _ setting out all the british people. if it's all— setting out all the british people. if it's all about the economy and it may well be than inflation and wages are going in the right direction for both voters and the conservative government, aren't they? people will 'udue government, aren't they? people will 'ud . e the government, aren't they? people will judge the conservative _ government, aren't they? people will judge the conservative party - government, aren't they? people will judge the conservative party on - judge the conservative party on their— judge the conservative party on their record. it will be the ia year record _ their record. it will be the ia year record lt— their record. it will be the 14 year record. . ., ., their record. it will be the 14 year record. , ., ., , their record. it will be the 14 year record. , , ., record. it is good news that inflation — record. it is good news that inflation has _ record. it is good news that inflation has fallen - record. it is good news that inflation has fallen again. i record. it is good news that| inflation has fallen again. of course but people are worse off at the end _ course but people are worse off at the end of— course but people are worse off at the end of this parliament than they were at— the end of this parliament than they were at the — the end of this parliament than they were at the beginning. i the end of this parliament than they were at the beginning.— were at the beginning. i don't hear ou were at the beginning. i don't hear you promising _ were at the beginning. i don't hear you promising that _ were at the beginning. i don't hear you promising that we _ were at the beginning. i don't hear you promising that we are - were at the beginning. i don't hear you promising that we are going i were at the beginning. i don't hearj you promising that we are going to make them better off? we you promising that we are going to make them better off?— you promising that we are going to make them better off? we are going to. how? make them better off? we are going to- how? look— make them better off? we are going to. how? look at _ make them better off? we are going to. how? look at inflation, - make them better off? we are going to. how? look at inflation, how- make them better off? we are going to. how? look at inflation, how was| to. how? look at inflation, how was britain so exposed _

to. how? look at inflation, how was britain so exposed to _ to. how-or? look at inflation, how was britain so exposed to inflation. to. how? look at inflation, how was britain so exposed to inflation. i'm i britain so exposed to inflation. i'm askin: britain so exposed to inflation. asking you britain so exposed to inflation. i“n asking you how the labour party... i will tell you. the 40,000 additional nhs procedures we will put in place every— nhs procedures we will put in place every week will put more people back in the _ every week will put more people back in the labour market. setting up gb energy— in the labour market. setting up gb energy with a slightly higher tax on the gas _ energy with a slightly higher tax on the gas companies, we will have a chance _ the gas companies, we will have a chance to — the gas companies, we will have a chance to make the transition to green _ chance to make the transition to green energy. that's how we do it, real changes and choice. it is no immediate — real changes and choice. it is no immediate gimmick, but you can set ”p immediate gimmick, but you can set up policies _ immediate gimmick, but you can set up policies and they are the things that will— up policies and they are the things that will make a difference. going back to _ that will make a difference. going back to the point, business investment, lowest in the g7, productivity is terrible by any british— productivity is terrible by any british standard, growth is under the post—war average wage is why people _ the post—war average wage is why people are — the post—war average wage is why people are paying high taxes and that is— people are paying high taxes and that is what we are seeking to break — that is what we are seeking to break. . . ~ that is what we are seeking to break. ., , ., that is what we are seeking to break. ., ., that is what we are seeking to break. ., ,~' , ., ., ,., . break. let me ask you about sir keir starmer's personal— break. let me ask you about sir keir starmer's personal ratings. - starmer's personal ratings. according to epps ird lowest ipsos

has ever seen for an opposition leader who is so far ahead. a quote here that it is more discussed about the tories than what labour are offering. are you worried? i’m the tories than what labour are offering. are you worried? i'm not and i offering. are you worried? i'm not and i think— offering. are you worried? i'm not and i think had _ offering. are you worried? i'm not and i think had to _ offering. are you worried? i'm not and i think had to head _ offering. are you worried? i'm not and i think had to head in - offering. are you worried? i'm not and i think had to head in the - and i think had to head in the campaign— and i think had to head in the campaign between keir and rishi sunak— campaign between keir and rishi sunak will be very favourable for keir~ _ sunak will be very favourable for keir~ we — sunak will be very favourable for keir. we saw that today with an incredibly — keir. we saw that today with an incredibly poor launch from the conservative party. keir is someone who has— conservative party. keir is someone who has the — conservative party. keir is someone who has the ability to be prime minister~ — who has the ability to be prime minister. we've seen that in his record — minister. we've seen that in his record the _ minister. we've seen that in his record. the most decorated public servant _ record. the most decorated public servant he — record. the most decorated public servant. he can do the job for the right— servant. he can do the job for the right reasons. we've had a lot of conservative prime ministers over the last— conservative prime ministers over the last five years and you can't say personal things about many of them _ say personal things about many of them. what we have put forward as keir as— them. what we have put forward as keir as a _ them. what we have put forward as keir as a potential commonest is something that people will like. thank— something that people will like. thank you. professor, are you expecting the pulse to narrow over this election campaign?— this election campaign? well, the answer is that _ this election campaign? well, the answer is that they _ this election campaign? well, the answer is that they might -- - this election campaign? well, the answer is that they might -- de i answer is that they might —— de polls to narrow.

the labour party cannot hope to do much more than trying to hang onto as much as possible of what they have got and there's a possibility... not simply because... if the conservative party can squeeze the reform vote that may help to narrow the lead. it is reform and not the labour party that is now taking more votes off the conservative party. there are lots of voters who want change and the labour party are emphasising that but the evidence of the local elections is that yes, labour are one of the vehicles they are looking for change but some of them are looking to reform and some of them are looking to the greens, sometimes at the expense of labour and in some circumstances the answer is the liberal democrats. all of that adds up liberal democrats. all of that adds up to the fundamental question about

the election, half of the electorate have had enough with the government but the challenge for labour, given the constrained fiscal environment it faces, how does it persuade the public that actually it is going to provide government of the kind that actually will make things better given the constraints and that they aren't simply going to end up managing the chaos and difficulty that the country currently faces in a different fashion but they don't necessarily provide a new sense of direction. ., ., , ., , direction. have the conservatives not more direction. have the conservatives got more to _ direction. have the conservatives got more to fear— direction. have the conservatives got more to fear from _ direction. have the conservatives got more to fear from the - direction. have the conservatives got more to fear from the liberal| got more to fear from the liberal democrats and reformed and labour have from the greens and from george galloway�*s party? that have from the greens and from george galloway's party?— galloway's party? at the moment that's a reasonable _ galloway's party? at the moment that's a reasonable judgment - that's a reasonable judgment because... the brexit party, the reform party's predecessor,, even if their vote is squeezed nationally,

of the reform party that still means five, six, 7% in most conservative constituencies from a base of zero, four and a half years ago and that is one of the reasons why reform is a particular problem for the conservatives. labour, we saw in the local elections, they have reason for concern about some of their voters especially those who identify as muslim with the position in gaza. they are probably hoping that while some mps who are fighting in constituencies with large numbers of muslims may suffer a reverse, given most of them already have large majorities, many may survive. there are one or two interesting battles with the range. bristol, they have higher hopes. —— battles with the greens. it p how much the greens take from labour and perhaps save the occasional conservative skin. what if nigel farage tomorrow makes an announcement that he's taking over from

an announcement that he's taking overfrom richard tice an announcement that he's taking over from richard tice as leader of reform? the one thing nigel farage has that none of the other principal party leaders have is charisma and an ability to communicate effectively with the wider public. that is one of the problems that will face all the parties at this election. it was to about six months ago, you golf asked, would you vote for reform if nigel farage was leader? —— you golf. maybe the support would double. but reform support has almost doubled since that was done. whether nigel farage would make more difference again, that remains to be seen and is less than certain. but i think conservative mps are hoping the salary gb news pays nigel faraj is a significant incentive for him to remain in front of the television and not necessarily campaigning out in the streets —— farage. this and not necessarily campaigning out in the streets -- farage._ in the streets -- farage. as always, thank you. — in the streets -- farage. as always, thank you. good _ in the streets -- farage. as always, thank you, good to _ in the streets -- farage. as always, thank you, good to see _ in the streets -- farage. as always, thank you, good to see you. - let's get reaction to those tory

and labour interviews from our politics panel, and also discuss rishi sunak's decision to go with a july election. can we talk about the point professor sirjohn curtice raised, the two main leaders and their ability to connect with voters and to frame a message. how are they regarded as leaders by voters? 50. regarded as leaders by voters? so, keir starmer _ regarded as leaders by voters? so, keir starmer comes out best on lots of the _ keir starmer comes out best on lots of the characteristics _ keir starmer comes out best on lots of the characteristics we _ keir starmer comes out best on lots of the characteristics we track - of the characteristics we track everything _ of the characteristics we track everything from _ of the characteristics we track everything from being - of the characteristics we track - everything from being considered under— everything from being considered under ordinary— everything from being considered under ordinary people _ everything from being considered under ordinary people and - everything from being considered under ordinary people and their. under ordinary people and their problems— under ordinary people and their problems and _ under ordinary people and their problems and the _ under ordinary people and their problems and the problems - under ordinary people and their. problems and the problems britain faces more — problems and the problems britain faces more broadly— problems and the problems britain faces more broadly and _ problems and the problems britain faces more broadly and more - faces more broadly and more importantly_ faces more broadly and more importantly than— faces more broadly and more importantly than that - faces more broadly and moral importantly than that because faces more broadly and more - importantly than that because we have seen— importantly than that because we have seen people _ importantly than that because we have seen people elected - importantly than that because we have seen people elected to- importantly than that because we i have seen people elected to prime minister— have seen people elected to prime minister without— have seen people elected to prime minister without being _ have seen people elected to prime minister without being in - have seen people elected to prime minister without being in touch - have seen people elected to primei minister without being in touch with ordinary— minister without being in touch with ordinary people. _ minister without being in touch with ordinary people, he _ minister without being in touch with ordinary people, he is _ minister without being in touch with ordinary people, he is also - ordinary people, he is also considered _ ordinary people, he is also considered to— ordinary people, he is also considered to be _ ordinary people, he is also considered to be more - ordinary people, he is also considered to be more of. ordinary people, he is alsoj considered to be more of a ordinary people, he is also - considered to be more of a capable prime _ considered to be more of a capable prime minister— considered to be more of a capable prime ministerand _ considered to be more of a capable prime minister and more _ considered to be more of a capablel prime minister and more competent than rishi _ prime minister and more competent than rishi sunak— prime minister and more competent than rishi sunak as _ prime minister and more competent than rishi sunak as well. _ prime minister and more competent than rishi sunak as well. so - prime minister and more competent than rishi sunak as well. so on - prime minister and more competent than rishi sunak as well. so on all. than rishi sunak as well. so on all of them _ than rishi sunak as well. so on all of them bar— than rishi sunak as well. so on all of them bar one, _ than rishi sunak as well. so on all of them bar one, which _ than rishi sunak as well. so on all of them bar one, which is - than rishi sunak as well. so on all of them bar one, which is about i of them bar one, which is about being _ of them bar one, which is about being good _ of them bar one, which is about being good in— of them bar one, which is about being good in a _ of them bar one, which is about being good in a crisis, - of them bar one, which is about being good in a crisis, he - of them bar one, which is about being good in a crisis, he is- being good in a crisis, he is leading _ being good in a crisis, he is leading the _ being good in a crisis, he is leading the way— being good in a crisis, he is leading the way at - being good in a crisis, he is leading the way at the - being good in a crisis, he is. leading the way at the minute. being good in a crisis, he is- leading the way at the minute. the challenge _ leading the way at the minute. the challenge however— leading the way at the minute. the challenge however for— leading the way at the minute. the challenge however for keir- leading the way at the minute. the challenge however for keir which . leading the way at the minute. the i challenge however for keir which you touched _ challenge however for keir which you touched on _ challenge however for keir which you touched on in— challenge however for keir which you touched on in your— challenge however for keir which you touched on in your previous - touched on in your previous interview— touched on in your previous interview is _ touched on in your previous

interview is people - touched on in your previousj interview is people knowing touched on in your previous - interview is people knowing what he really _ interview is people knowing what he really stands — interview is people knowing what he really stands for _ interview is people knowing what he really stands for and _ interview is people knowing what he really stands for and we _ interview is people knowing what he really stands for and we still - interview is people knowing what he really stands for and we still do - really stands for and we still do have _ really stands for and we still do have just — really stands for and we still do have just under— really stands for and we still do have just under half _ really stands for and we still do have just under half of - really stands for and we still do have just under half of the - have just under half of the population— have just under half of the population who _ have just under half of the population who tell- have just under half of the population who tell us - have just under half of the i population who tell us they have just under half of the - population who tell us they are still not — population who tell us they are still not really _ population who tell us they are still not really sure. _ population who tell us they are still not really sure. [5 - population who tell us they are still not really sure.— still not really sure. is that the problem. _ still not really sure. is that the problem. tom _ still not really sure. is that the problem, tom baldwin? - still not really sure. is that the problem, tom baldwin? you i still not really sure. is that the - problem, tom baldwin? you know him well and wrote his recent biography. just under half don't really know what he stands for. just under half don't really know what he stands for.— just under half don't really know what he stands for. yes, he always had these three _ what he stands for. yes, he always had these three stages _ what he stands for. yes, he always had these three stages to - what he stands for. yes, he always had these three stages to his - had these three stages to his leadership. one was to change the party. _ leadership. one was to change the party, second to provide reassurance and show _ party, second to provide reassurance and show the party could be trusted. third. _ and show the party could be trusted. third. to _ and show the party could be trusted. third, to provide that rather intangible sensation of hope. you can divided almost into kinnick, smith— can divided almost into kinnick, smith and — can divided almost into kinnick, smith and blair, those three leaders took 14— smith and blair, those three leaders took 14 years to get there before and he _ took 14 years to get there before and he tried to make that transition four years _ and he tried to make that transition four years and to some extent, he is an unknown— four years and to some extent, he is an unknown quantity for lots of voters — an unknown quantity for lots of voters -- — an unknown quantity for lots of voters —— neil kinnock. he has been trying _ voters —— neil kinnock. he has been trying to— voters —— neil kinnock. he has been trying to set — voters —— neil kinnock. he has been trying to set out what he stands for and i_ trying to set out what he stands for and i still _ trying to set out what he stands for and i still think the five missions he presented last year are the least red and _ he presented last year are the least red and most underreported documents in westminster. all red and most underreported documents in westminster-— in westminster. all that is extraordinary _ in westminster. all that is extraordinary when - in westminster. all that is extraordinary when you i in westminster. all that is i extraordinary when you think in westminster. all that is - extraordinary when you think if the opinion polls are correct, he is on the verge of becoming prime

minister. . . the verge of becoming prime minister. , ., ,, ., , minister. yes, an essentialthing is we have this _ minister. yes, an essentialthing is we have this rather _ minister. yes, an essentialthing is we have this rather weird - minister. yes, an essentialthing is we have this rather weird situation | we have this rather weird situation now where — we have this rather weird situation now where the tories and the hard of the labour— now where the tories and the hard of the labour party are making the same complaint _ the labour party are making the same complaint about keir starmer and saying _ complaint about keir starmer and saying he — complaint about keir starmer and saying he has changed his main dish change _ saying he has changed his main dish change his— saying he has changed his main dish change his mind about key things. he has changed his mind from a position which _ has changed his mind from a position which was _ has changed his mind from a position which was pretty electable in 2019 —— changed his mind about key things — —— changed his mind about key things. labourwas —— changed his mind about key things. labour was not trusted on national— things. labour was not trusted on national security and national finances _ national security and national finances to a position where it is now trusted with both. if you don't like that— now trusted with both. if you don't like that change, i think you are probably— like that change, i think you are probably on the wrong side of the british— probably on the wrong side of the british people. that probably on the wrong side of the british people-— british people. that is one of the conservative _ british people. that is one of the conservative attack _ british people. that is one of the conservative attack lines - british people. that is one of the conservative attack lines about i conservative attack lines about labour, isn't it? that he will do anything to get power, quote quote. yes, i think you will hear a lot of that and you could already hear a number of people saying that —— quote, on coat. that keir starmer got elected pretending he was quite left and as soon as he became leader, that changed. he said five pledges, it is not really that at all, there is not a lot of flesh on the bone. to be fair to them, you

can totally understand why they are doing it, it is a very strong anti—tory vote. they are way ahead in the opinion polls. why take any risks? i think we are probably in for quite a boring six weeks of people like you asking keir starmer and people likejonathan reynolds, can you just give us a bit more detail and tell us your planet? they will say they have won and they will come up with little frittering things that sound impressive and that are not really substantial. band that are not really substantial. and the will that are not really substantial. and they will probably cruise to victory _ they will probably cruise to victory. ultimately, - they will probably cruise to victory. ultimately, it- they will probably cruise to victory. ultimately, it is. they will probably cruise to victory. ultimately, it is a. victory. ultimately, it is a relative _ victory. ultimately, it is a relative contest. - victory. ultimately, it is a relative contest. it- victory. ultimately, it is a relative contest. it is- victory. ultimately, it is a| relative contest. it is best victory. ultimately, it is a i relative contest. it is best of victory. ultimately, it is a - relative contest. it is best of what is on _ relative contest. it is best of what is on offer— relative contest. it is best of what is on offer between _ relative contest. it is best of what is on offer between the _ relative contest. it is best of what is on offer between the two - is on offer between the two candidates _ is on offer between the two candidates. and _ is on offer between the two candidates. and one - is on offer between the two candidates. and one of- is on offer between the two candidates. and one of the| is on offer between the two . candidates. and one of the key metrics— candidates. and one of the key metrics we _ candidates. and one of the key metrics we track— candidates. and one of the key metrics we track which - candidates. and one of the key metrics we track which i- candidates. and one of the key metrics we track which i think. candidates. and one of the keyl metrics we track which i think is candidates. and one of the key. metrics we track which i think is a killer— metrics we track which i think is a killer one — metrics we track which i think is a killer one about _ metrics we track which i think is a killer one about whether- metrics we track which i think is a killer one about whether the - metrics we track which i think is a i killer one about whether the public think the _ killer one about whether the public think the party— killer one about whether the public think the party is _ killer one about whether the public think the party is fit _ killer one about whether the public think the party is fit to _ killer one about whether the public think the party is fit to govern. - think the party is fit to govern. and when— think the party is fit to govern. and when you _ think the party is fit to govern. and when you look _ think the party is fit to govern. and when you look at - think the party is fit to govern. and when you look at what - think the party is fit to govern. i and when you look at what they think the party is fit to govern. - and when you look at what they think of labour— and when you look at what they think of labour now— and when you look at what they think of labour now and _ and when you look at what they think of labour now and what _ and when you look at what they think of labour now and what they - and when you look at what they think of labour now and what they think. and when you look at what they think of labour now and what they think of| of labour now and what they think of it even— of labour now and what they think of it even five. — of labour now and what they think of it even five, six, _ of labour now and what they think of it even five, six, seven _ of labour now and what they think of it even five, six, seven years - of labour now and what they think of it even five, six, seven years ago, i it even five, six, seven years ago, it even five, six, seven years ago, it is up— it even five, six, seven years ago, it is up and — it even five, six, seven years ago, it is up and around _ it even five, six, seven years ago, it is up and around 30% _ it even five, six, seven years ago, it is up and around 30% who- it even five, six, seven years ago, it is up and around 30% who thinkj it is up and around 30% who think they are _ it is up and around 30% who think they are fit — it is up and around 30% who think they are fit to _ it is up and around 30% who think they are fit to govern _ it is up and around 30% who think they are fit to govern and - it is up and around 30% who think they are fit to govern and it - it is up and around 30% who think they are fit to govern and it has i they are fit to govern and it has been _ they are fit to govern and it has been pretty— they are fit to govern and it has been pretty stable. _ they are fit to govern and it has been pretty stable. what - they are fit to govern and it has been pretty stable. what has. been pretty stable. what has happened _ been pretty stable. what has happened over— been pretty stable. what has happened over that - been pretty stable. what has happened over that time, - been pretty stable. what has| happened over that time, the conservative _ happened over that time, the conservative party— happened over that time, the conservative party have - happened over that time, the i conservative party have dropped happened over that time, the - conservative party have dropped from a relatively— conservative party have dropped from a relatively decent _ conservative party have dropped from

a relatively decent state _ conservative party have dropped from a relatively decent state down - conservative party have dropped from a relatively decent state down to - a relatively decent state down to 18% and — a relatively decent state down to 18% and it — a relatively decent state down to 18% and it is _ a relatively decent state down to 18% and it is their— a relatively decent state down to 18% and it is their move - a relatively decent state down to 18% and it is their move down. a relatively decent state down toi 18% and it is their move down the trajectory— 18% and it is their move down the trajectory rather— 18% and it is their move down the trajectory rather than _ 18% and it is their move down the trajectory rather than labour's . 18% and it is their move down the i trajectory rather than labour's move up trajectory rather than labour's move up and _ trajectory rather than labour's move up and so _ trajectory rather than labour's move up and so it— trajectory rather than labour's move up and so it is— trajectory rather than labour's move upand so it isa— trajectory rather than labour's move up and so it is a relative _ trajectory rather than labour's move up and so it is a relative contest. - up and so it is a relative contest. 0k. up and so it is a relative contest. 0k what — up and so it is a relative contest. 0k what kind _ up and so it is a relative contest. ok. what kind of— up and so it is a relative contest. ok. what kind of a _ up and so it is a relative contest. ok. what kind of a campaign- up and so it is a relative contest. ok. what kind of a campaign is. up and so it is a relative contest. - ok. what kind of a campaign is going to be? do you think it is going to be open and honest and positive and hopeful, could it be dirty and vile, what you think, tom? i hopeful, could it be dirty and vile, what you think, tom?— what you think, tom? i think it is auoin to what you think, tom? i think it is going to be _ what you think, tom? i think it is going to be a _ what you think, tom? i think it is going to be a very _ what you think, tom? i think it is going to be a very dirty _ what you think, tom? i think it is going to be a very dirty campaign because — going to be a very dirty campaign because desperate people do desperate things and there is a reason — desperate things and there is a reason the conservative party have doubled _ reason the conservative party have doubled the amount you can spend on an election _ doubled the amount you can spend on an election campaign because they want to— an election campaign because they want to lots of money into these targeted. — want to lots of money into these targeted, tailored attack adverts. and i_ targeted, tailored attack adverts. and i think we will see fakes as well _ and i think we will see fakes as well that _ and i think we will see fakes as well. that is the technology which didn't— well. that is the technology which didn't exist in the last election to produce — didn't exist in the last election to produce fakes. and this is going to be a real— produce fakes. and this is going to be a real problem. the one thing i would _ be a real problem. the one thing i would say— be a real problem. the one thing i would say is — be a real problem. the one thing i would say is that stuff happens in an election campaign. i don't think it would _ an election campaign. i don't think it would be — an election campaign. i don't think it would be boring, there is always unexpected things that happen. someone will hit someone or fall over or— someone will hit someone or fall over or something will be leaked. and what— over or something will be leaked. and what is really important for labour— and what is really important for labour now having spoken to them a few -- _ labour now having spoken to them a few -- having —

labour now having spoken to them a few —— having spoken to a few of them _ few —— having spoken to a few of them about— few —— having spoken to a few of them about this, they will know there _ them about this, they will know there will— them about this, they will know there will be a wobble because the media _ there will be a wobble because the media want to stop talking about how keir starmer is certain to win and the tory— keir starmer is certain to win and the tory party and parts of the labour— the tory party and parts of the labour party want to change the narrative — labour party want to change the narrative as well. so when there is that wobble, how keir starmer reacts to that _ that wobble, how keir starmer reacts to that i _ that wobble, how keir starmer reacts to that i think is going to be very important — to that i think is going to be very important. i to that i think is going to be very im ortant. ., �* to that i think is going to be very important-— important. i don't raise this to make a sort — important. i don't raise this to make a sort of— important. i don't raise this to make a sort of flippant - important. i don't raise this to make a sort of flippant point, | important. i don't raise this to i make a sort of flippant point, but you don't want a bacon sandwich type moment that ed miliband had. something like that is not going, labour are not going to drop dramatically in the polls, but you want to avoid that in the next six weeks if you are labour. i want to avoid that in the next six weeks if you are labour.- want to avoid that in the next six weeks if you are labour. i think a bacon sandwich _ weeks if you are labour. i think a bacon sandwich moment - weeks if you are labour. i think a bacon sandwich moment is - weeks if you are labour. i think a - bacon sandwich moment is completely overblown _ bacon sandwich moment is completely overblown, reheated bacon sandwich almost. _ overblown, reheated bacon sandwich almost. if— overblown, reheated bacon sandwich almost, if you like. you overblown, reheated bacon sandwich almost, if you like.— almost, if you like. you would say that, ou almost, if you like. you would say that. you a _ almost, if you like. you would say that. you a of— almost, if you like. you would say that, you a of communications - almost, if you like. you would say that, you a of communications at| almost, if you like. you would say i that, you a of communications at the time and it was a disaster. it that, you a of communications at the time and it was a disaster.— time and it was a disaster. it was not a moment — time and it was a disaster. it was not a moment which _ time and it was a disaster. it was not a moment which was - time and it was a disaster. it was. not a moment which was planned, time and it was a disaster. it was i not a moment which was planned, it was a _ not a moment which was planned, it was a moment of spontaneity and he didn't— was a moment of spontaneity and he didn't know— was a moment of spontaneity and he didn't know he was being filmed and people _ didn't know he was being filmed and people made a big deal out of it in a rather— people made a big deal out of it in a rather weird people made a big deal out of it in a ratherweird and people made a big deal out of it in a rather weird and anti—semitic way. the stone _ a rather weird and anti—semitic way. the stone was worse. there will be

moments in the campaign that are excited and we get excited about. much more likely is the day—to—day on programmes like this and the today programme, you will have the constant question to the conservative party, this is not realistic, you haven't got a hope. and labour party, what on earth are you going to do? i suspect politicians will try to frustrate and cause problems. i suspect it will be a very low turnout at the election, i suspect people would be quite frustrated. the points you make about it being relative and labour is not proving its competence as the conservatives have gone down. and i suspect at the end, we will look back and say, was it all over before rishi became prime minister? could have done partygate and a mini budget and got away with it? the truth is probably no. the myths about— truth is probably no. the myths about the — truth is probably no. the myths about the bacon sandwich or the stone _ about the bacon sandwich or the stone is — about the bacon sandwich or the stone is they become symbols of the party's _ stone is they become symbols of the party's defeat, i don't think they moved _ party's defeat, i don't think they moved a — party's defeat, i don't think they moved a lot of votes. they are things— moved a lot of votes. they are things the _ moved a lot of votes. they are things the media pick up on, that was when — things the media pick up on, that was when labour lost and so on. it

might— was when labour lost and so on. it might be _ was when labour lost and so on. it might be the image of rishi sunak soaked _ might be the image of rishi sunak soaked to— might be the image of rishi sunak soaked to the skin today will become one of— soaked to the skin today will become one of those images, i doubt it will move _ one of those images, i doubt it will move lots— one of those images, i doubt it will move lots of votes, but there is a narrative — move lots of votes, but there is a narrative that is told after an election— narrative that is told after an election when winners write history. but there _ election when winners write history. but there will be, but the one thing that is— but there will be, but the one thing that is certain in every election campaign _ that is certain in every election campaign is events happen, there is no unknown —— there are known unknowns — no unknown —— there are known unknowns and unknown ones and i promise _ unknowns and unknown ones and i promise you — unknowns and unknown ones and i promise you it will not be boring. there _ promise you it will not be boring. there will— promise you it will not be boring. there will be lots of macro conversations _ there will be lots of macro conversations about - there will be lots of macro conversations about small| there will be lots of macro - conversations about small things happening — conversations about small things happening and _ conversations about small things happening and ultimately, - conversations about small things i happening and ultimately, looking conversations about small things - happening and ultimately, looking at the bigger— happening and ultimately, looking at the bigger picture _ happening and ultimately, looking at the bigger picture and _ happening and ultimately, looking at the bigger picture and the _ happening and ultimately, looking at the bigger picture and the macro - the bigger picture and the macro mood _ the bigger picture and the macro mood of— the bigger picture and the macro mood of the _ the bigger picture and the macro mood of the nation _ the bigger picture and the macro mood of the nation and - the bigger picture and the macro mood of the nation and how - the bigger picture and the macro mood of the nation and how thatj mood of the nation and how that perhaps— mood of the nation and how that perhaps does _ mood of the nation and how that perhaps does not _ mood of the nation and how that perhaps does not shift, - mood of the nation and how that perhaps does not shift, but - mood of the nation and how that perhaps does not shift, but lotsi mood of the nation and how that i perhaps does not shift, but lots of small— perhaps does not shift, but lots of small things — perhaps does not shift, but lots of small things within— perhaps does not shift, but lots of small things within it _ perhaps does not shift, but lots of small things within it do _ perhaps does not shift, but lots of small things within it do and - small things within it do and ultimately. _ small things within it do and ultimately, the _ small things within it do and ultimately, the outcome - small things within it do and ultimately, the outcome is i ultimately, the outcome is determined _ ultimately, the outcome is determined by— ultimately, the outcome is determined by that. - ultimately, the outcome is determined by that. .b. - ultimately, the outcome is determined by that.- ultimately, the outcome is determined by that. a lot of this election will _ determined by that. a lot of this election will not _ determined by that. a lot of this election will not be _ determined by that. a lot of this election will not be seen - determined by that. a lot of this election will not be seen by - election will not be seen by programmes like this, a lot of it will be targeted very closely with in constituencies and we will not see a lot of the adverts going out and a lot of messaging going out there and i thinkjournalists should really, really try hard to get to that. 0k.

ok. let's look