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tv   Unspun World with John Simpson  BBC News  May 26, 2024 11:30am-12:01pm BST

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the headlines. conservatives say they will bring back monetary national service for 18—year—olds in the uk if they win the general election. underthe the uk if they win the general election. under the plan there would be a choice ofjoining the military full—time for 12 months of voluntary one weekend every month carrying out community service. labour say it is a gimmick. the united nations says 670 people have died following a landslide in papa new guinea. it is an estimate based on the number of houses buried in up to eight metres of rock, earth and trees. so far only a few bodies have been recovered. at least 12 people have died after a russian attack on a crowded diy store in ukraine's
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second city of kharkiv. the ukrainian president zelinsky said more than 200 people could have been inside the supermarket when it was attacked. now in bbc news, unspun world with john simpson. hello, and welcome to another edition of unspun world. thank you forjoining me. after the summit between vladimir putin and xijinping, what have we learned about the russia—china relationship? it's a very useful relationship, i think, for the chinese. i think they feel themselves very much now the senior partner — russia, the junior partner. does the old idea of a two—state solution between israel and the palestinians have any future
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at all after the gaza war? there was always, at the heart of it, almost a denial of the other perspective. now there's a complete rejection of it wholesale. and, following the attempt on the life of the slovak prime minister, we look at the worrying stresses and strains in european politics. these are times of crisis in europe, and these are times of confrontation. and i think very worrying for many is the fact that robert fico, divisive and controversial as he is, there was an attempt at an assassination. vladimir putin and xijinping have already met more than a0 times over the years, and, after their meeting last week, they've agreed to get together yet again in july. but the balance of power has clearly
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switched from the days when the soviet union was dominant and china was the junior partner. as the old chinese saying goes, "same bed, different dreams". i asked the bbc�*s russia editor, steve rosenberg, for his thoughts. certainly if you look at, you know, this russia—china relationship, what does russia get out of it? i think a lifeline, really, you know, since vladimir putin has burnt his bridges with the west, he's had to turn east. and china provides this lifeline, both in terms of political support for vladimir putin, and economic support, in terms of trade. and china is a place where russia can sell its energy to, since it can't really sell much gas now to europe, so it sells it to china. what does china get out of this relationship? well, it's not a lifeline, but it's a very useful relationship,
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i think, for the chinese. i think they feel themselves very much now the senior partner — russia, the junior partner. for the chinese, they can get energy at a cheaper price. and also, having this relationship with russia, that's quite useful for china in its continuing standoff with the united states. how's the russian press responded to the xi—putin meeting? some of the papers expressed some scepticism about the relationship. one newspaper, the headline was, "china is a very complicated partner". there was one quote that said, you know, "when you have chinese officials talking on the "one hand about a no—limits friendship, "contrast that with their tough pragmatism," as the paper put it. that makes russian officials and russian businessmen start to think they're being deceived, which is quite interesting. but it also talks about the so—called russian mentality, which, according to the newspaper, meant that a lot of russians are — don't trust china. they say, "we just don't trust
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them," and that's it. and the war itself, how do you feel it's, er, going? certainly for several months now, the russians have insisted that they now have the military initiative on the battlefield. and, you know, judging from vladimir putin's speeches over the last few months, he has grown increasingly confident in predicting victory at some point for russia. i think the changes in the government, bringing an economist into the defence ministry is a sign that actually, russia is preparing for quite a long war here, and a sign that the economy in russia's being put on a war footing. when you say "long—term", what are we talking? imean, years? i think that what we're seeing
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now is a country which, as i say, is being put on a war footing economically. the message is being put out from morning till night that the west is increasingly russia's enemy, that the west wants to destroy russia, to carve russia up into pieces. that is the message you get in the state media here. and having the west as an enemy, and ukraine as an enemy, to a large extent helps the kremlin distract attention from problems at home. what happens if the war ends, and there is no external enemy? people are being prepared here for a long conflict. i was in a town recently, a couple of hours�* drive from moscow, where they were unveiling a new war memorial — and it was to the victims of the soviet war in afghanistan, russia's war in chechnya, and to those russian soldiers who've been killed in the so—called "special military operation".
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and there were far more names on the memorial of people who've been killed in the ukraine war than in the other wars. and the speeches that were being made by local officials at the unveiling of this war memorial were quite astonishing, basically preparing the crowd — and there were adults and there were children there — but preparing them for a long conflict and making it clear that, "well, you know, "we always had war before, wars take place, "wars will always take place. "so, get used to it." and i thought that was quite astonishing because, for so many years after 1945, after the soviet victory in what's known here as the great patriotic war, the big slogan that you heard in this country and the phrase that you heard from people across the country, towns, and villages was, "we just don't want any more war. "there shouldn't be any more war." you have the normalisation of war. and that, to me, is another indication that russians, the russian public, is being prepared here for a long conflict.
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after six months of fighting in gaza, binyamin netanyahu hasn't managed to destroy hamas root and branch as he promised. but he must hope he's finally killed off the only long—term solution to the problem that most people can come up with — the two—state idea, with palestinian towns cut off from one another in the west bank, and israeli settlers carrying out regular attacks. the notion that the west bank and gaza could somehow form a self—governing country has shrunk dramatically — though ireland, norway, and spain now say they'll formally recognise a palestinian state. sebastian usher is the bbc world service's middle east editor. i asked him what he thought. you'll have the immediate future, obviously, of gaza, which will be a very,
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very pressing issue. all the people who've been displaced, all the homes that have been destroyed, all the infrastructure that's no longer there, the basic governance of it, just a massive, massive, huge issue. i don't know if you have any confidence in the world pulling together to be able to deal with that. i certainly don't, i have to say. or an interest in doing it. well, i mean, there's an interest, but that interest will fade inevitably, because other, more immediate issues will take their place once again. so, what is needed — and what's been needed for a very long time — is a huge amount of highly—directed money at all the infrastructure and building of civil society. then you have, in the occupied west bank, you have the issue which was the dominant issue, such as the conflict between israel and palestine was concerned, up until october the 7th, had been festering and getting worse. that is not going away. the institutions that are in place
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within the palestinian territory are not able to get to grips with this. so, it's really kind of almost banal, and it sounds inhumane, but to say that there isn't really a way forward on this. i mean, we've had all the talk from the us, from the un, from western countries suddenly about the two—state solution again, but no pathway towards that. there wasn't one before. and all the issues that meant that never happened — the return of the refugees, the status of eastjerusalem, the settlers in the occupied west bank — none of those have improved since it all fell apart years ago. in fact, they've only got worse. and i think one thing that we've seen with what's happened in gaza is that already, the two parallel narratives that existed have just completely gone off—road from each other, and i can't see anyway back at the moment. there was always, at the heart of it, almost a denial of the other perspective.
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now, there's a complete rejection of it wholesale. something will have to come for the palestinian people, the people of gaza, the people of the west bank at some stage to centre around. and physically, geographically, where could that be? these scattered areas of the west bank, or...? well, i mean, that's the issue. i mean, the two—state solution, as it stands at the moment, is essentially rejected by the palestinians as being a state that just doesn't work. it's not contiguous with the settlements. essentially, palestinians would have to be crossing and recrossing. palestinians just don't believe that the state — even if on paper, it looks substantial — would amount to anything that could actually be a properly autonomous, self—governing entity. the palestine authority,
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as far as i think the majority of palestinians are concerned, is not seen as anything to be taken seriously now. and you're talking about people in gaza who've experienced something, a trauma that goes so far and so deep that it's unmatched by what the palestinians in the occupied west bank have done. so, two separate experiences — similar but separate now — how do you bring those together? you expect, and one believes, that somehow, something will emerge from this organically in some way that will be more hopeful. but you know, and what you need for that, in a sense, is some level of discourse, some level of debate, some level of compromise, some level of mutual respect. i mean, none of that exists at the moment. it barely existed before — now... now it's impossible. ..it doesn't exist in any sense. when i talk to israeli friends of mine, i find that even the most outward—looking ones of them don't really understand the extent to which israel is isolated and criticised.
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the us, i think, still has israel's back. and i think we see this time and time again — we've seen this in the latest thing with the icc application for arrest warrants for netanyahu and the defence minister that, you know, president biden came up very quickly to denounce it as "outrageous". when it really matters, when it really matters, the us hasn't changed its position, i think one would have to say. but in europe, support for israel is very low, isn't it? yes, yes. and you've seen countries like germany — which obviously, historically has been incredibly loath to seem as if it is being critical of israel, particularly when it's at war. there's been a very, er, a strong change from there. diplomatically, it is highly significant, you know, for those historical reasons. these have been worrying days in europe, too. in the baltic states,
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there's been talk of parallels with 1939 — only with russia, rather than germany, as the possible aggressor. and then came what some people instinctively thought of as a july 1914 moment when the slovak prime minister, robert fico, was lucky to survive a murder attempt. how dangerous is the situation really? i spoke to katya adler, the bbc�*s europe editor. slovakia, in the polarised times that we're all living in, john, is a deeply, deeply, deeply polarised country. i mean, earlierthis month, we had thousands of people taking to the streets to demonstrate against the policies of robert fico. we heard from the interior minister following his shooting, suggesting that the country was on the brink of civil war. and, whereas i think that is, you know, emotional speech,
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it really is a hugely divided society where there are frequent death threats made against politicians. and, in fact, the current president — she's now the outgoing president — didn't stand for re—election, partly because of the number of death threats that she'd received. after the fall of the soviet union, slovakia, you know, started turning west in its model, it hasjoined nato. it did join the eu as well, in fact, you know, on the same year. but, with time, there are people in slovakia who hark back to what they see now as the good old days of communism, where they said everybody was taken care of, everybody had an education, everybody has a job. but many feel disappointed by democracy and the west, and feeling poor. and you have this character, robert fico — he's a very colourful character who loves a headline, john. i mean, he's known for his love of football and fast cars, and body—building — but also open admiration for vladimir putin.
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he very famously said that if there is an international arrest warrant made for vladimir putin, you know, he wouldn't get into trouble in slovakia, for example. this is his fourth time as prime minister, when he was on the campaign trail back in autumn, he said there should be no more military aid by slovakia for ukraine. he called for an end to sanctions against russia, since its full—scale invasion of ukraine. he's been introducing laws that are very reminiscent of what we've seen in hungary — so ngos, you know, civil organisations, if they receive foreign funding above a certain amount, they have to declare it. and, you know, that's led them to say, "well, this is like hungary "and we'll get labelled foreign agents". he's trying to change the laws around the public broadcaster. people say, "you're cracking down on the freedom of the press, you're having a go at the judiciary" — he's closed down the prosecutor's office looking at corruption in the country.
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but really, i suppose everything you've said indicates that slovakia is actually rather different from most countries round about. i would disagree. i see lots of echoes of other countries there. i see echoes definitely of hungary, as i said, because of this very close friendship between robert fico and viktor orban of hungary, who's also known as being, you know, very close to the kremlin. so, i see echoes of the now former government in poland, following elections there with, you know, similar, what get labelled illiberal tendencies. this sort of disappointment in the west and feeling left behind. i see in east germany, for example, where the far—right afd is very strong. and we're heading now, in just a few weeks, to the european parliamentary elections, and we have projections that the far—right, or the nationalist right, or nostalgic nationalist, anti—eu sentiment kind of parties, and that they are tipped to go first in eight or nine countries, and second or third in a further nine countries. now, that can change
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decision—making within the eu. we've just seen an interview in the british press with the estonian prime minister, saying, "this looks to me very much like 1939". i mean, it does bring back these sentiments, whether they're true or not, doesn't it? why would estonia say this? well, estonia would say this because it feels directly threatened by russia's full—scale invasion of ukraine, and saying this is like 1930s europe is going to make people, they hope, sit up and listen. is this 1930s? i mean, again, it could be a big debate. i think we should always be careful about being too alarmist. aware ? yes. alarmist? not really. so, these are times of crisis in europe, and these are times of confrontation. and i think very worrying for many is the fact that robert fico, divisive and controversial
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as he is, was... there was an attempt at an assassination. and we're seeing more and more of our lawmakers coming under threat. so, in germany, just in the last few weeks alone, there were a number of assaults on german politicians. you know, that is worrying on very many levels because that's like silencing democracy. of course, there's a potential threat to human existence as completely different from all this — the rise of artificial intelligence. is that too alarmist? well, maybe — there are plenty of authorities who think that human beings will take ai in their stride and carry on. britain and south korea have developed a partnership over ai. it was launched last november with a conference at bletchley park — the wartime code—breaking centre in southern england. now it's been followed up by a joint summit based in seoul, which was billed as being about al safety. the bbc technology editor,
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zoe kleinman, told me more. the conversation in the last six months has massively changed, i think, on the subject of safety. if you remember the discussions back then, it was real kind of terminator, doomsday scenarios — that has kind of gone away now. it's got a much broaderfocus. i've just read a report that's come from the ai safety institute in which it says, "actually, we think ai is probably less likely "to create a lethal bio—weapon "or orchestrate a sophisticated cyber attack. "and we kind of don't really think that humans are in "any danger as yet of losing control of ai and it doing, you know, something horrendous to civilisation". but is it less dangerous than it was? surely not. we heard a lot, in november, the phrase "marking your own homework", and it does still feel a little bit like that
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is what's happening. and bear in mind, everything that's been agreed both at bletchley and in seoul is voluntary. and i think when we see more legislation come in — we've just seen now the eu ai act come in — there you are, that's law now, these companies have got to abide by european law. and i wonder whether this goodwill that we've seen so far between policy—makers and the industry might become slightly less amicable once they're forced to do something. tell me, what sort of breathtaking advances have there been? we've just seen some new products come out, which i think are more sophisticated than anything we've seen before. so, ai released a tool called gpt—iio. and in a demonstration of that, it has a voice. there's no latency, there's no gap between you asking it something and it replying to you. it guided the demonstrators through a maths problem onstage that they had written down — so it could see text, it could interpret text, it could interpret video. that is very new.
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google has a product called gemini. we saw, 2a hours later, this tool being shown, using a smartphone camera to look around an office. and it was picking out various things, you know, where's the speaker? where's the dog? where's, you know, what is this on screen? and it's correctly identifying everything. right at the end of the demo, the woman who was holding the phone said, "where are my glasses"? having never mentioned it — and this thing replied and said, "your glasses are on the table behind you next to an apple" — and they were. it feels like this is actually very new, we haven't had this before. we've been writing to these chat bots and have them write back, but this is it becoming much more embedded in our everyday lives, using sound, using pictures, using images like we do. observation. at the moment, down at my, er, level, the sort of pre—tech level, i'm just concerned about things like scarlettjohansson, the film actress, having her voice copied, but not quite copied, but it does sound like her, and there's been all sorts of fuss. i mean, i know this is not a grand problem, but it is a problem
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all the same, isn't it? what this, i think shows us is that for everything these companies say about, you know, "we're not like that any more. "we're not the kind of big, arrogant silicon valley giants, "you know, moving fast, breaking things, "doing what we want — "we're not like that now, we're listening". but when it comes to it, if they want something and they set their sights on it, this suggests that actually, that attitude still exists, doesn't it? scarlettjohansson said she was approached about being the voice of this ai tool, and she declined. openai says there was no intent to imitate her, that it worked with other voice artists, that it would've liked to have used her, but it didn't. but she is — she says she's shocked and angry that this has happened, and you can see why. you know, that's her livelihood, that's her profession, and...
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..she needs to protect it. but does this — will this seoul conference do anything about that kind of thing? in order to be truly useful, these tools have to be able to do lots of different things. if you stop them from doing lots of stuff, theyjust become less useful. and also, they need to be trained on lots of data. and that basically means you feed these things with hundreds, millions, as much as you can get hold of different bits of data largely scraped from the internet. but there is an issue there, because that data belongs to people. and, while some people have embraced the opportunity to help build these tools, others have put the drawbridge up and said, "you know what? this is our content. "we pay our professionals to make it, and we don't want you to have it for free to train something that can then do it for us. "so, we're not going to do it." when president raisi's death was confirmed in iran after his helicopter crash, fireworks were let off and some people danced in the streets.
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others openly wept. the usual estimate of opinion inside iran is that one third of the people support the islamic regime, one third is strongly against it, and the remaining third is pretty undecided. when the late president raisi was elected in 2021, the people who were undecided stayed away from the polls, together with the people who were strongly anti the regime. raisi won by the lowest turnout in the islamic republic's history. not perhaps surprisingly, he had an unenviable reputation. amnesty international identified him as being one of the main figures responsible for widespread torture and thejudicial murder of around 5,000 people, perhaps more executed in a mass clear—out of political prisoners in 1988. under his presidency, the laws on women's dress have been brutally enforced.
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iran now has 50 days of selection and campaigning for a new presidential election. but turnout�*s likely to be even lower than in 2021. it'll be an unsettling time for a regime which is anyway extremely nervous about its growing lack of support among the population as a whole. there's a kind of end—of—days feel about iran at the moment. it's done pretty well in its partnership with russia and china. but the supreme leader, ayatollah khamenei, who ranks above the president, is 85 and noticeably frail. a lengthy succession crisis at some point for choosing a new supreme leader will weaken the islamic republic even more than this new presidential election will. the regime's leaders
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know they're unpopular, and they've only had one solution up to now — pile on the repression. well, that's it from this edition of unspun world this week. thank you for being with me. from the unspun team and from me, goodbye. until we meet again. hello there. lots of sunshine around yesterday, but it is all change weather—wise today. there will still be some sunny spells, mostly towards the south of the uk, but also the threat of some heavy, thundery downpours breaking out as well. it's been a soggy night for many with our weather fronts merging, slowly pushing further northward. so spells of rain, lots of saturated ground around this morning.
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for the northern half of the uk, it stays cloudy with further spells of rain, some heavy at times. further south, there will be some sunshine, but watch out for those thunderstorms. they could be heavy and slow—moving, particularly across the midlands, parts of eastern wales and through northern england too. a bit drier across northern scotland and south—east england. temperatures 15 to 19 degrees celsius for most. it will still feel pleasantly warm in the best of the sunshine. the showers will tend to fade away overnight tonight, but still some showery outbreaks of rain across many central and western areas of scotland, gradually pushing further eastwards. clearer skies further south and east. it's a mild start to bank holiday monday. lots of typical bank holiday weather around tomorrow. most of the rain, though, will be towards the north. that's gradually pushing further eastwards as we head throughout the day. some heavy downpours of rain around at times and a scattering of showers further south, but also some bright and some sunny spells in between those showers, which won't be as heavy or as thundery as we're expecting for the rest of the day today.
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it will still feel pleasantly warm in the best of the sunshine. temperatures will be round about the seasonal average, generally 15 to 18 degrees. then we look out towards the south—west as we head into tuesday to see this area of low pressure sweeping in. the winds are going to pick up. it's going to be quite a breezy day. there will be more cloud, showery outbreaks of rain again pushing northwards and eastwards, but possibly dry still for much of the day across northern, eastern areas of scotland and through north—east england too. temperatures once again very close to the seasonal average — 15 to 17 degrees. for much of the rest of the week there will still be more showers around with low pressure dominant, but as we head towards next weekend high pressure will start to topple in from the west, and this will settle things down. so a little drier, but still the possibility of some showers on friday and into next weekend. there will be some spells of sunshine. it will feel a little warmer. bye— bye.
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live from london, this is bbc news. the conservatives say they'll bring back mandatory national service for 18—year olds if they win the general election. labour has described the plan as a gimmick. labour's been talking about its plans for the economy. it promises not to increase income tax if it wins on polling day. the united nations says 670 people are feared dead following a landslide in papua new guinea. at least 12 people are now confirmed dead after a russian attack on a crowded diy store in ukraine's second city of kharkiv. hello, i'm martine croxall. the uk's general election campaign
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is well and truly under way, with an eye—catching announcement from the conservative party

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