you are watching the context. we are less than two weeks from another big election. it is time for europe votes 202a. welcome to the programme. yes, next week, 400 million voters across europe will be heading to the polls to elect their representatives to the european parliament. they will be choosing 720 politicians, from 27 countries. it matters in a whole range of policy areas, many we have already touched on in this series, from trade, to energy, migration, climate. and within the series, we have been criss—crossing the map, to hear the voters' persecpective. we have been to the netherlands, spain, france, germany, belgium. tonight, we are going to focus

on security, and through the prism of the baltic states. as former members of the soviet union, lithuania, estonia and latvia have been sounding the alarm about the existential threat they face from russia ever since theyjoined the nato alliance two decades ago. this year, they have been the loudest voices within the european union urging allies to go further and faster, raising the alarm about the kremlin�*s real intentions. this past week, the russians removed buoys that were marking the border with estonia on the narva river. the russian defence ministry briefly published a plan to revise its maritime border in the baltic sea, which was then quickly deleted, the kind of tactics that put all three countries on edge. the baltic states see two possibilities on the horizon. the first, if russia were to succeed in ukraine, is that they would try to exploit a weakened west. perhaps a surprise attack in the baltic states, followed up with a credible nuclear threat.

the second scenario where ukraine holds the lines is that short of the full military assault curricula continue to test and provoke the baltic states, stirring up the russian speaking populations, which are sizeable, in all three countries. shortly, we will hear from the latvian president edgars rinkevics, who i spoke to at length yesterday. first, let's introduce our panel tonight. from globesec think—tank, alena kudzko, vice president for policy and programming, and also alexandra brzozowski, who is the europe editor for euroactive and global europe. alexandra, let me start with you. when you look at the security picture across europe, the western defence alliance really has been bolstered this past year by the accession of finland and sweden, turning the baltic sea into what has become known as the noto lake, but

the event of the past week suggest russia is going to test it and that tells us why security will be uppermost when people go to the ballot box next week. yes. ballot box next week. yes, absolutely. _ ballot box next week. yes, absolutely, christian, - ballot box next week. yes, absolutely, christian, i- ballot box next week. yes, | absolutely, christian, ithink especially now after the war in ukraine, eastern europe cannot be ignored when it comes to the description of new top jobs after the june elections description of new top jobs after thejune elections this time around. it's true that for 20 years now of this representation has not been very reflected in the high level positions, so after the elections, but we will see is some of those countries will sense some frontrunners to brussels, most likely, estonia's prime minister has a good shot at the job, especially on foreign policy or defence issues, and also i think this time around, it's also very interesting to see in what way this eastern representation could be represented inside the commission when it comes to eu commissioners and the files they might get. the geographical balance

will be choosing this time, and especially with the really heavy focus on security enlargement and all related files. we'll see the politics and especially maybe poland as well will be more confident in asking for those files.— asking for those files. yeah, it has been really — asking for those files. yeah, it has been really interesting _ asking for those files. yeah, it has been really interesting how- asking for those files. yeah, it has been really interesting how some l asking for those files. yeah, it has l been really interesting how some of the power dynamic has shifted to the east during this war in ukraine. alena, the nightmare scenario would be for russia, should they be successful in the near term, to use the opportunity of a troubled presidency to show nato that it is divided —— traumatic presidency. the place to do that would be in the baltic states. the problem for the baltic states. the problem for the baltic states. the problem for the baltic states is that they have been raising the alarm on that for many years, that there is a problem of crying wolf. do you think there is more attention now being paid within the european parliament? baltic countries but _ the european parliament? baltic countries but also _ the european parliament? baltic countries but also other countries in the _ countries but also other countries in the region have gained a lot of credibility— in the region have gained a lot of credibility since the full— blown invasion— credibility since the full— blown

invasion of ukraine in 2022. exactly because _ invasion of ukraine in 2022. exactly because they were saying for so many years _ because they were saying for so many years that _ because they were saying for so many years that russia represents a medic security— years that russia represents a medic security threat, everybody now is listening — security threat, everybody now is listening to their assessment of the situation _ listening to their assessment of the situation. and of course they realise — situation. and of course they realise that a lot can change as the outcome _ realise that a lot can change as the outcome of— realise that a lot can change as the outcome of the election in the united — outcome of the election in the united states, but also potentially as the _ united states, but also potentially as the outcome of elections in some of european — as the outcome of elections in some of european countries, somewhat the battic— of european countries, somewhat the baltic countries are trying to for right— baltic countries are trying to for right now. — baltic countries are trying to for right now, and they're doing it in a very credible way, they are trying to say— very credible way, they are trying to say that, — very credible way, they are trying to say that, we europeans need to do everything _ to say that, we europeans need to do everything possible right now to provide — everything possible right now to provide as much a part for ukraine as possible — provide as much a part for ukraine as possible. that included military support, _ as possible. that included military support, it — as possible. that included military support, it includes economic support, _ support, it includes economic support, but it also includes a viable — support, but it also includes a viable path for nato membership for ukraine _ viable path for nato membership for ukraine. �* ., ., viable path for nato membership for ukraine. �* . . , ., . ukraine. alexandra, before we hear from the latvian _ ukraine. alexandra, before we hear from the latvian president, - ukraine. alexandra, before we hear from the latvian president, just - ukraine. alexandra, before we hear from the latvian president, just seti from the latvian president, just set out for us with the pitcher looks like in voting terms for latvia. who was at the top of the polls and what are the transti ruling parties will see in latvia? —— transti ruling

parties will see? i think we just lost her. never mind! let's move on. as i suggested, many europeans are deeply concerned about what a second trump presidency might bring, especially after his comments that russia could do "whatever the hell they want" with countries that don't spend enough on defence. the baltic leaders would say that is the reason they need a trump contingency plan. and they see it as an opportunity to push europe to spend more on integrating their defences. president macron is the biggest advocate of that plan. but would a parliament that veers to the right, want more spending, more integration? there are some nationalist parties in europe who are closer to russia. these are all questions i put yesterday to edgars rinkevics. he is the president of latvia, a country that marked 20 years of eu membership this month. what does he expect from the vote next week? i don't want to sound really self—critical, but let's wait for

election day. it is going to be sunny, if it is going to be nice. who knows what the rate of participation is going to be, but seriously speaking, i think that of course one enormous issue is affecting this, and that is russian aggression against ukraine. also, we have seen, the european union is intra— mental also in fighting what we call hybrid warfare, hybrid attacks, like migration, that is being used by dictators of russia and belarus. but frankly, ialso believe that there sometimes is a difference between what people say a couple of days or weeks before the elections and when it is actual elections and when it is actual election day. we elections and when it is actual election dtry-— elections and when it is actual election day. we have reported widel on election day. we have reported widely on this _ election day. we have reported widely on this series _ election day. we have reported widely on this series on - election day. we have reported widely on this series on the - election day. we have reported| widely on this series on the shift to the heart rate, the populace running top in polling,

—— populists running top in poland, in slovakia, bulgaria, all countries which have benefited usually from european integration. how, european scepticism is on the rise? i european integration. how, european scepticism is on the rise?— scepticism is on the rise? i think that we have _ scepticism is on the rise? i think that we have some _ scepticism is on the rise? i think that we have some difference i scepticism is on the rise? i think that we have some difference in| scepticism is on the rise? i think i that we have some difference in eu member states. that we have some difference in eu memberstates. because that we have some difference in eu member states. because you have some right—wing parties that are very much supporting what they are being union does currently to tackle the russian aggression against ukraine, and then you have some member states where you have actual support for mr putin. in our case, where you have actual support for mr putin. in ourcase, i where you have actual support for mr putin. in our case, i would say that our right—leaning parties, and i would not say we have far right parties... would not say we have far right parties - -_ would not say we have far right parties. . ._ they - would not say we have far right parties. . ._ they are parties... nationalist. they are more or less. _ parties. .. nationalist. they are more or less, i _ parties... nationalist. they are more or less, i would - parties... nationalist. they are more or less, i would say, - parties... nationalist. they are - more or less, i would say, moderate, or nationalist, as you say. in our case, all those right—leaning parties are pretty much supporting strong european defence, and they are very much supporting the

continuous support for ukraine. ukraine cosmic eu membership. yes, there some differences, like climate change, like some economic issues, so that's where you have real differences. brute so that's where you have real differences.— so that's where you have real differences. ~ . , differences. we have been reporting on the russian _ differences. we have been reporting on the russian influence _ differences. we have been reporting on the russian influence in - differences. we have been reporting on the russian influence in georgia. | on the russian influence in georgia. their concerted russian attempts to divide and rule in moldova. it has created divisions in slovakia. we have reported on the assassination attempt there. there is a sizeable russian minority in your country. are you concerned similar terms are under way in latvia? you are you concerned similar terms are under way in latvia?— under way in latvia? you know, i think my country, _ under way in latvia? you know, i think my country, as _ under way in latvia? you know, i think my country, as well- under way in latvia? you know, i | think my country, as well as other baltic states, are being under continuous russian pressure, even before the full—scale war started in 2022 or even before the crimea occupation into any ia. we were always under some kind of propaganda warfare, undersome always under some kind of propaganda warfare, under some kind of attempts

to meddle in our internal politics, and to some extent, yes, there is always concern. we are rather... the intelligence, with social media, that kind of influence meddling is changing, but i would say that so far, we have been able to tackle some of those attempts to influence our internal politics, but i would say that we always have to be very, very cautious when you speak about ability of russia to cause some trouble. ., ., , , ability of russia to cause some trouble. . . . , . , ~ trouble. yeah, as they did last week in estonia. trouble. yeah, as they did last week in estonia- so _ trouble. yeah, as they did last week in estonia. so the _ trouble. yeah, as they did last week in estonia. so the russian _ trouble. yeah, as they did last week in estonia. so the russian forces - trouble. yeah, as they did last week in estonia. so the russian forces of| in estonia. so the russian forces of the border guards, removed the boys marking the navigable channels in the narva river, in the estonian waterway, which is a border with russia. are you willing to assist estonia and lithuania by all means, if russia is redrawn baltic sea

waters? mil if russia is redrawn baltic sea waters? �* ., . . if russia is redrawn baltic sea waters? �* ., , . , , if russia is redrawn baltic sea waters? �* ., , ., , , ., waters? all of us are members of both nato and _ waters? all of us are members of both nato and eu _ waters? all of us are members of both nato and eu and _ waters? all of us are members of both nato and eu and we - waters? all of us are members of both nato and eu and we have i waters? all of us are members of both nato and eu and we have all inbound to assist each other, the united kingdom, as part of nato, the united states, germany, france. yes indeed, we are very carefully monitoring the situation, we are in close contact with our friends, not only in the baltic states, let's not forget also about the same kind of attempts towards finland. we have seen that kind of rough decree that was posted on the russian government website disappeared, but what we see, and i think we can assess russia is testing all of us. they are trying to on one hand show that they can inflict some kind of damage, some kind of provocation can be made. on the other hand, they are very carefully monitoring how not only the baltic states, not only

latvia, estonia, lithuania, are going to respond but also how nato and the european union are going to react and i think that at this point, this is testing. yes, it is trying to influence some kind of uncertainty, some kind of nervousness, and i think the plan currently is the right one, calmly but surely. currently is the right one, calmly but surely-— currently is the right one, calmly but surel . ., �* . but surely. the reaction we've had 'ust this but surely. the reaction we've had just this week— but surely. the reaction we've had just this week to _ but surely. the reaction we've had just this week to what _ but surely. the reaction we've had just this week to what happened i but surely. the reaction we've had | just this week to what happened in estonia is that norway, poland, finland say they will work with the baltic states to create this, they call it a drone war. what is that, a drone wall? is it a fully fledged idea? 0r drone wall? is it a fully fledged idea? or is it more of what you're talking about, that idea of showing some solidarity in the face of russian aggression? st some solidarity in the face of russian aggression?- some solidarity in the face of russian aggression? st of all, this is the decision _ russian aggression? st of all, this is the decision to _ russian aggression? st of all, this is the decision to start _ russian aggression? st of all, this is the decision to start working. i is the decision to start working. so, the idea is to address all kinds of challenges that we are facing on our borders. let's not forget that the baltic states, poland, finland

and also norway, all of us are bordering russia, and russia and others both are posing —— belarus are posing risk and he comes to military and border protection. we in finland are seeing also the attempts to use migration, belarusian regime, putin's regime, to attack us, to push people to use migration as the weapon, and to that end, such kind of provocations, we have seen last week. also, those attempts to use migration need to be addressed, and the drone wall is the idea that we try to also use the drones as protective means, but i would say that this is currently just the beginning. i cannot provide more details, as this idea... ultimately the backstop is article 5 of the nato agreement. are you

confident that the united states and other nato partners would stand behind that, were latvia invaded? i behind that, were latvia invaded? i would say there is all the political rhetoric we are seeing, i have full trust in nato, i have full trust in article 5, i had experience working with different us administrations, when i was the prime minister, now is the president, but one thing i am going to say, and i have said that also previously, regardless of who is going to win the us elections, europe must do more, and if i europe i understand not only the european union but also european allies of nato. we need to increase defence spending, we need to also increase our defence industry, its production, its capacity. my own country, just a couple of, i would say, not only more months but year and so ago, we introduced

conscription. currently it is voluntarily, but we see also we need to be better prepared, but at this point, yes indeed i do believe that, despite all the kind of rhetoric we are seeing, nato is very strong. i do believe that in order to keep that alliance strong, also, all nato members should of course increase its defence spending. that's also a requirement we are going to see from the us administration regardless of who is going to be the president of the united states. but who is going to be the president of the united states.— the united states. but politically in euro -e the united states. but politically in europe you — the united states. but politically in europe you might _ the united states. but politically in europe you might be - the united states. but politically in europe you might be about i the united states. but politically in europe you might be about to| the united states. but politically i in europe you might be about to run into a problem if marine le pen has her way and the forces on the right, on the hard right, coalesce in one group. there are some of those parties who are more inclined towards russia, who might undermine the security operations, who might not want to spend as much of their money on european defence. does that concern you? i

money on european defence. does that concern you?— concern you? i think it is a bit too far to make _ concern you? i think it is a bit too far to make any _ concern you? i think it is a bit too far to make any predictions i concern you? i think it is a bit too far to make any predictions about the elections that are going to happen... 2027. we are still in 202a. but i think that there have been also some speculations about some leaders in the past, somewhere, actually —— somewhere exley proven right and some were proven wrong. i do believe much curtly depends on how well we are going to continue support for ukraine, much is going to depend on economic situation in eu member states. to depend on economic situation in eu memberstates. i to depend on economic situation in eu member states. iwould not to depend on economic situation in eu member states. i would not go as far as saying that the 2027. edgars rinkevics. the president of latvia. after the break, we will pick some of that apart. and we will take a look at the vote in these baltic states.

why are the nationalists so competitive in countries that have benefited greatly from european membership and might depend on the union for their future security? we will be right back.

welcome back. just before the break, our pen was telling us what this proportionate power some of these baltic state countries have within the european union. for a country with less than two million people, lot fee a fits into that category —— latvia fits into that category. their current long—serving commissioner valdis dombrovskis holds the powerful trade porfolio. he is currently number two in the european commission's hierarchy and is pinning his hopes on a third term. but his future might be tied to ursula von der leyen, the current commission president, who is coming under pressure from some within the eu parliament concerned by her comment she will work to accomodate the populist, nationalist parties who are topping the polls ahead of next week's vote. we have lost one of our panelists, alexandra brzozowski, we are trying

to make contact with her, but let's speak more to alena kudzko. let's just pull apart some of what we heard from the fee and president, specifically about defence spending, and the polls sort of indicating that there will be the shift to the right within the european parliament. do you think that affects the security or folio? does it have a bearing on what the latvian president has been discussing?— latvian president has been discussing? latvian president has been discussinu? ., ., discussing? the composition of the euro ean discussing? the composition of the european parliament _ discussing? the composition of the european parliament will— discussing? the composition of the european parliament will shape i discussing? the composition of thei european parliament will shape the policy of the european union. for example, department will have a say about what type of the budget they have and the size of the budget, and it will have a huge say in the allocation of portfolios. so they will be able to try to roll back, if the far right politicians will come to power, to put pressure on the you to power, to put pressure on the you to roll back some of their policies, but that said, their impact will

still be limited in the area of defence and security for national spending on defence for example still remains the member states's, so members can continue spending as much as they can regard as of the european parliament. this policy will continue for sure.— will continue for sure. yeah, he talked about _ will continue for sure. yeah, he talked about this _ will continue for sure. yeah, he talked about this news - will continue for sure. yeah, he talked about this news drone i will continue for sure. yeah, he l talked about this news drone wall which was announced just before we did the interview. got finland, norway, poland, linking up with the baltic countries to defend their borders. also an announcement yesterday poland was going to spend 2 billion euros defending its borders. so they are stepping up security. are these baltic states looking beyond the traditional powers now? you've got france and germany seem to be fixated on their own national problems, germany trying to keep a coalition together. so are they building new alliances of the baltic states, with other countries?—

countries? the war in ukraine definitely _ countries? the war in ukraine definitely change _ countries? the war in ukraine definitely change the - countries? the war in ukraine l definitely change the geography countries? the war in ukraine i definitely change the geography of power in europe. suddenly we see a situation where nordic countries like finland, sweden, they feel closer to the eastern european countries, to countries in the baltics also countries like poland, or even czech republic and slovakia, so there is a huge opportunity for these countries to build new alliances. we also see that france and germany are largely distracted by their domestic political issues. both countries are concerned about how the government is pulling nationally contract immobilize the domestic public and generate more support, so they have less and smaller bandwidth to engage with and build coalitions in europe, so central and eastern european countries, baltic countries, are stepping up into the void and using this opportunity to push forward for the policies that are beneficial for them. mr the policies that are beneficial for them. ~ —— he said they were under continual attempts from russia to meddle in

internal politics but they have a sizeable russian minority in latvia. does that affect how the vote will come out in the next week, and does that explain why we are seeing nationalist parties doing a little better than the more traditional parties? better than the more traditional arties? , ., better than the more traditional arties? . . ., parties? first and foremost, we need to talk about — parties? first and foremost, we need to talk about turnout _ parties? first and foremost, we need to talk about turnout in _ parties? first and foremost, we need to talk about turnout in general. i to talk about turnout in general. traditionally, in central and eastern european countries, turnout for european parliament elections has been rather low, and usually this election attracts too many types of parties. first, we have parties that attract very pro eu minded voters but we also have parties who attract people who vehemently disagree with the european union, so there's a lot of potential in the baltic states to mobilise the euro sceptic segments of the population. many of these people who say that they are euro sceptic, they do not support the european union, actually by and large agree on the security situation, but they have other

issues to express their discontent. for example, we see a huge wave of protests of farmers that has taken to the streets across europe, that includes central and eastern european countries. farmers are concerned about the influx of cheap ukrainian agricultural products, so they are trying to push back against they are trying to push back against the eu policies in this area, they are also unhappy about eu green deal, for example, and want to see more subsidies from the eu to be compensated for their losses. a lot of it this year sceptic voters are also concerned about migration. —— the zero sceptic voters. this is very pronounced in the baltic states. as the president said there is a huge concern about the border security, as belarus and russia have been trying to weaponize migration, and forcefully... fin been trying to weaponize migration, and forcefully. . ._ and forcefully... on that issue, we had reports _ and forcefully... on that issue, we had reports recently _ and forcefully... on that issue, we had reports recently of _ and forcefully... on that issue, we had reports recently of russia i had reports recently of russia flying in migrants from asia and cycling across the border in finland, and we have seen similar

pictures from belarus into poland. isn't that a demand for more solidarity on migration, more integration on quotas across europe, rather than less?— rather than less? there's a two track approach _ rather than less? there's a two track approach on _ rather than less? there's a two track approach on this. - rather than less? there's a two track approach on this. first i track approach on this. first countries understand we need more solidarity, but on the other hand there is a stronger push to ensure that we control the situation and the borders and that we can choose who gets to come in and who does not get to come in. countries in the region say that, yes, we totally understand it's a humanitarian situation as well, but it presents a huge security concern for us. it's very difficult to control whether there is also other people who are coming in besides people who have claims for asylum, there's a lot of concerns also that the people from russia or who are working for the russian state will be able to gain easy access into this countries and represent also security threats, especially in the baltic states.

just very finally, when we talked about turnout, what you said will be crucially important, to the events we are reporting on around kharkiv of the pressure on the lines in ukraine, does that focus attention and is that driving people to the polls? i and is that driving people to the olls? ., �* ~' and is that driving people to the olls? ., �* ~ . polls? i don't think it will have significance — polls? i don't think it will have significance on _ polls? i don't think it will have significance on the _ polls? i don't think it will have significance on the turnout i significance on the turnout specifically for the european parliament elections, but it definitely creates even more fear that the war in ukraine might go in the wrong direction, and that russia might be doing better and better, so there will definitely be more pressure on the politicians in the baltic countries but also more popular demand of the voters on the eu to try to do more on security front and try to provide even more help to ukraine.— front and try to provide even more help to ukraine. alena, good to talk to ou. it help to ukraine. alena, good to talk to you- it is — help to ukraine. alena, good to talk to you- it is not _ help to ukraine. alena, good to talk to you. it is not a _ help to ukraine. alena, good to talk to you. it is not a place _ help to ukraine. alena, good to talk to you. it is not a place we - help to ukraine. alena, good to talk to you. it is not a place we get i to you. it is not a place we get to hear often on the programme. we will be implement next week as part this series. do hope you join us for that

—— we will be in poland. hello. we've seen some pretty hefty downpours getting going today and we have more of the same to come over the next few days, although there will be some drier, sunnier gaps in between the showers. so not a complete wash—out, but certainly a very mixed weather story. now, on the earlier satellite picture, you can see a fair bit of clouds streaming in from the atlantic, bringing outbreaks of rain. and in this clearer slice here, yes, we did see a little bit of sunshine, but that also allowed some big showers and the odd thunderstorm to pop up. some of those showers continuing through the evening, into the night, most of them fading through the early hours of wednesday. so most places starting wednesday morning on a dry note — temperatures, 10, ii, 12 degrees. a fair amount of cloud, some showers from the word go, but most places seeing some spells of sunshine. now, as we go through the day, the showers will become more widespread across england, wales, northern ireland, perhaps most especially across scotland. here, we will see some slow—moving, heavy, thundery downpours

which could dump a lot of rain in a short space of time, leading to the risk of localised flooding and some travel disruption. some of those really intense showers perhaps getting into the far north of england as well. further south, not as many showers, temperatures climbing to 20 or 21 degrees towards the south—east of england. now, through wednesday night into thursday, this area of low pressure will still be close by. but as it shifts eastwards and a little bit further southwards, well, that will shift the focus for the showers southwards as well. so the most widespread showers by thursday afternoon across southern and southeastern parts of england. further north and west, not as many showers, some spells of sunshine, quite a brisk north or north—westerly wind. so that will make it feel a little bit on the cool side, but still in the best of the sunshine, highs of 19 degrees. by friday, cloud and still some showers down towards the south and the east. also, more cloud into the northern half of scotland. but in between, quite a lot

of sunshine and certainly a drier end to the week. and that is a sign of things to come for the weekend because this area of high pressure will be nosing its way in from the west. now, some big areas of cloud moving around the highs. so it's not going to be completely sunny, but it will be largely dry. and, actually, across northern areas, particularly parts of scotland, it is going to turn very warm indeed, with temperatures by sunday of 22 or 23 degrees.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. amid international condemnation over sunday's attack, the israeli military has said it has investigated the possibility that weapons that had been stored in a facility near the location hit in rafah might have exploded following the air strike. 0ur munition alone could not have ignited a fire of this size. i want to repeat it. 0ur munition alone could not have ignited a fire of this size. the strike did kill two. senior hamas terrorists, who are directly responsible for attacks against - the israeli people. but, as we've also said many times, israel must take every— precaution possible to do more to protect innocent life. - to discuss the sitaution

in rafah — the us reaction — and a range of other stories — on the panel tonight