looking good — the international monetary fund upgrades china's economic growth — but warns of leaner times ahead. polls open in south africa today for a general election which could see the anc lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years. and one dunk or two? today is national biscuit day here in the uk, and we'll be examining our insatiable appetite for the crunchy stuff. welcome to business today, i'm mark lobel. is china rising once more? the international monetary fund has announced its conclusions on the future prospects of china's economy. it is set to grow 5% this year, after a strong first quarter. that's an upgrade of its earlier forecast of 4.6% expansion — though it expects slower growth in the years ahead.

the imf said it welcomed steps announced by policymakers earlier this month to stabilise china's beleaguered property sector. lets get the low down now with louise loo, who is china economist at oxford economics. louise, looking for china. projected to grow beyond expectations.— projected to grow beyond expectations. yes, exactly. this is very _ expectations. yes, exactly. this is very positive - this is very positive assessment. i think the upgrade to the growth forecast notjust this year, next year, suggest to us that there is a good sense of expectation that policies will continue to be quite supportive of the economy. i think generally it is quite good news if you think about the different structural problems the economy faces, including property.— including property. property bein: including property. property being the — including property. property being the main _ including property. property being the main one. - including property. property being the main one. it - including property. property being the main one. it was. including property. property| being the main one. it was a key demand from the imf from these discussions before, these regular discussions that the property sector would be restructured to allow the rest of the economy to grow. has

that happened, and if so how? they have, especially over the last two weeks specifically, authorities have really turned quite aggressive in terms of reforming or at least changing the model of property in china and transitioning that to something more sustainable. you can see the government really coming in to abandoning their market oriented ways of resolving the housing bubble and really taking on a more proactive approach to solving these problems and some of that includes the government effectively directly buying some of this land that we see, some of this land that we see, so china obviously has a very severe access supply of land —— excess supply of land across different cities. some of these unprecedented measures are actually quite... well, we think it is quite positive but really we haven't really seen a lot of that in terms of

implementation details, in terms of how they will be funded, so there are still quite a lot of uncertainty around that but the imf assessment today is giving the benefit of the doubt as to the contribution, positive contribution, positive contribution it would have in the next at least two years. it is quite uncertain so what would be the potential knock—on effects outside of china if this abounds is not sustainable?- this abounds is not sustainable? ~ , sustainable? well, -- if this bounds is — sustainable? well, -- if this bounds is not _ sustainable? well, -- if this bounds is not sustainable. l bounds is not sustainable. outside of china the knock—on effect would most likely come through classic trading financial channels, china is a big importer of commodities, base metals, steel, iron, that could have an impact on my picky commodity trading partners that china enjoys a pretty good relationship with. but of course as it becomes more integrated with the rest of the world, the impact, the negative impact of some of

these policies are not pushed through effectively, it could also have a pretty severe impact on the rest of the world when it comes to home knock—on effects on sentiment, and some of these forward—looking views. louise loo, china economist at oxford economics, thank you. as we've been reporting, south africans are set to vote for a new government today. but the outcome is far from clear. growing discontent in the country has left voters reluctant to go to the polls. pollsters are, for once, in a state of limbo. with the highest level of income inequality in the world, an economy that's been left reeling by cumulative global shocks including covid, together with weak structural growth, the state of the country's finances has been a key issue leading up to the election. let's go live now to terence hove, who is a senior financial market strategist at online trading platform exness in johannesburg.

from where you are sitting, is the economy dominating the election? ,., ., ., ., election? good morning. ithink the economy — election? good morning. ithink the economy has _ election? good morning. ithink the economy has always - election? good morning. ithink the economy has always been i election? good morning. i think. the economy has always been the central point, especially for the current government because they were seen coming into being very capable of steering the economy in the right direction and just as they were getting started, as you mentioned, then we had the global pandemic in south africa was one of the few countries that went into a full lockdown. everything was close to a standstill except for essential services. the environment became very difficult to get the economy where they wanted it to go. the momentum they needed to stimulate business activity, especially given the factors that they were now

operating around, so it is definitely going to be a central point and the question is always who is able to get it right? amongst all the different candidates that are out there, who actually has the capacity or the plan to get it right? capacity or the plan to get it riuht? ~ ., ., ' right? what are the different economic— right? what are the different economic agendas _ right? what are the different economic agendas on - right? what are the different economic agendas on offer? | right? what are the different i economic agendas on offer? at economic agendas on offer? git the moment, ithink economic agendas on offer? git the moment, i think one thing is getting that growth to come backin is getting that growth to come back in south africa. we have seen some good recovery but inflation has been quite sticky, as we have seen amongst a lot of global economies, and i think employment is always, always, always a key talking point. if you listen to a lot of the different manifestos, none actually ever says a clear plan on how they intend to get it right, they willjust plan on how they intend to get it right, they will just say we will increase, morejobs. what we have seen with the

administration, in some quarters unemployment figure was actually coming down. that will also be very central for a lot of the voters going into later on this afternoon. food insecurity — later on this afternoon. food insecurity is _ later on this afternoon. food insecurity is a _ later on this afternoon. food insecurity is a big _ later on this afternoon. food insecurity is a big problem. | later on this afternoon. food i insecurity is a big problem. do people think it is climate related or do they think it is a man—made problem? we have had economic decline in south africa for over a decade. fortunately for south africa the agricultural sector has been relatively strong. there have been different shocks that have been different shocks that have come through the years, over the decade, but definitely food security is seen, especially now, when we have the el nino affecting grain production, the estimate is about i9% less of grain production, south africa in the season because of el nino so

there is a strong awareness of there is a strong awareness of the climate change and effects it is having on farming and agriculture sector. there is more awareness on climate change as opposed to it being man—made, if i can call it that. man-made, ifi can call it that. . ., ., , , that. terence hove from exness, thank you- _ the board of the company that owns the uk's royal mail is expected to recommend a fresh takeover offer for the 500—year—old organisation on wednesday. czech billionaire daniel kretinsky will firm up an offer of £5bn which includes assumed debts for the company which employs more than 150,000 people. let's go live to fiona chincotta, who is a senior market analyst at city index. thank you forjoining us. what do we know about this czech billionaire he already has a minority stake in royal mail?

he is a tech billionaire, a lawyer and around 33rd on the times rich list. he made his money in eastern europe and central europe via energy companies in a labyrinth of company structures. he also has stakes in, for example, sainsbury�*s and foot locker as well as a 27% stake in west ham. ~ ., g , well as a 27% stake in west ham. g , , well as a 27% stake in west ham. ~ , , ., well as a 27% stake in west ham. ~' , , ., 4' ham. markets seem to think there is a — ham. markets seem to think there is a chance _ ham. markets seem to think there is a chance the - ham. markets seem to think there is a chance the deal i there is a chance the deal could be blocked. how likely do you think that is and what i the fact is that politicians will look at?— the fact is that politicians will look at? ., ., will look at? -- what are the factors? _ will look at? -- what are the factors? it — will look at? -- what are the factors? it is _ will look at? -- what are the factors? it is important - will look at? -- what are the factors? it is important to i factors? it is important to point out that it will probably be coming with certain pledges. for example, to heat the headquarters in the uk as well as its tax residency. and to avoid compulsory redundancies. even so, this needs to go

through the national security investment act. basically that gives the government the right to scrutinise and potentially block a deal. let's throw in the fight here that we are in an election period, as well, so that changes potentially at the timeframe involved in getting any deal approved. the market is actually pricing the share price right now below what the offer price is, we are trying it it suggests the market suggest they could be problems to get this deal over the line. we have that national securities investment act, but that didn't seem to cause too many problems when we had the potential owner looking to up his stake from 22% to 27% to just a few years ago. it does come with a whole load of problems, we know this company has had its fair share

of problems in recent years. ht of problems in recent years. it has. fiona chincotta from city index, thank you for that update. nvidia's momentum continues, with its stockjumping 7% to hit another record high on tuesday. the chip—maker and leader in the artificial intelligence space is now valued at $2.8 trillion. it is currently wall street's third most valuable company behind microsoft and apple. this year alone nvidia has seen its share price double. tuesday's jump also helped propel the tech—heavy nasdaq to a fresh high. shareholders of american oil company hess have approved its $53 billion merger with rival chevron. the deal still has to gain regulatory approval from the us federal trade commission, which could come next month. but a more serious stumbling block is hess' dispute with exxon mobil over its lucrative guyana assets, which both companies have a stake in. under a joint operating agreement, exxon has a right to refuse the sale of hess'

guyana assets — which is one of the world's fastest growing oil reserves. chevron has said they would pull out of the deal if hess' guyana stake was not included. we're also watching merger talks between mining giants bhp and the uk's anglo american. so far both companies have failed to make progress on terms of deal worth $49 billion. but the clock is ticking, as the deadline for negotiations will expire at 5pm london time on wednesday. when we come back — one dunk or two? today is national biscuit day here in the uk, and we'll be examining our insatiable appetite for the crunchy stuff. we will have a fun quiz and a special guest that you won't want to miss. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news.

welcome back to the programme. as the ecb edges closer to cutting interest rates next week, a new report out this morning shows that business confidence among ceos and chairs of many of europe's largest companies has rebounded to the highest level since may 2022. that's according to the conference board measure of ceo confidence for europe — but industry leaders are more positive about their companies' business outlook outside europe than within. live now to sara murray, global managing director of the conference board international. thank you forjoining us. what have you found?— thank you forjoining us. what have you found? thank you for havin: have you found? thank you for having me _ have you found? thank you for having me and _ have you found? thank you for having me and good _ have you found? thank you for having me and good morning. | having me and good morning. indeed. confidence is better but not great, and the reason that confidence has improved is mainly due to short—term economic conditions, so we have seen falling inflation, we have

seen falling inflation, we have seen an improvement in incomes and a pick—up in activity, but indeed, ceos i more positive about the outlook outside of europe and i think we need to see that what it is. expectations in europe are a lot less bright because, as a place to do business, europe really seems stuck on a path of relative decline and ceos tell us time and time again that the eu's incoming leadership really need to prioritise turn that puts competitiveness front and centre of their work programme going forward to ensure prosperity for the long term. that is why we are seeing prospects outside of europe more favourably —— that why they are seeing prospects outside of europe more favourably. was there anything about how competitiveness could be improved in your report? indeed. time and time again we hear that the overly complex regulation coming out of europe is the number one obstacle

holding back european competitiveness. they want better regulation, coherent regulation, they want a deeper single market. they want leadership from europe to support innovation, supports technological leadership and the green transition. the question is whether the next eu parliament can and wants to deliver on that.— parliament can and wants to deliver on that. what about the threat of china? _ deliver on that. what about the threat of china? did _ deliver on that. what about the threat of china? did that, - deliver on that. what about the threat of china? did that, at. threat of china? did that, at all? , , ., all? indeed. the issue of europe's _ all? indeed. the issue of europe's falling - europe's falling competitiveness needs to be viewed through the lens of the relationship with china. the majority of ceos think relations are going to deteriorate, the list of friction points is growing, but a big concern is out that the us china relationship develops. they are also concerned about de—risking their supply chains, how that will affect the relationship, industrial overcapacity is an issue, level

playing fields, on the green transition, access to raw materials. there is a lot of worries here and not a lot of hope short—term for that to be improved. hope short-term for that to be improved-— hope short-term for that to be imroved. ., ~ ., improved. sara murray from the conference _ improved. sara murray from the conference board _ improved. sara murray from the conference board international, | conference board international, thank you forjoining us.- thank you for “oining us. thank ou. in china, the world's biggest smartphone makers are battling it out for market share. apple had cause to celebrate. our north america business correspondent erin delmore tells us why. china is the world's biggest smartphone market, and apple is one of the world's biggest smartphone—makers. but apple hasn't been doing so well in china. iphone sales fell by 37% during the first two months of this year. see, competition is heating up in the region. home—grown rival huawei is increasing its market share, opening more stores, adding more distributors, and selling more phones. it overtook apple as the second—most—popular smartphone—maker in china

during the first quarter of the year. but now apple has reason to celebrate. the company's iphone sales in china rose 52% in april, compared to a year ago. that's according to data from a research company that's affiliated with the chinese government. that entity — the china academy of information and communications technology, — doesn't track apple specifically. instead, it measures the increase in foreign—branded shipments. but in the foreign—branded game, apple's the main player. and apple could see more gains from may. it's been discounting select models, which could lead to more sales. let's get you the latest on the heatwave in india. capital city delhi recorded an all—time maximum temperature of 49.9 degrees celsius. several cities in the north are grappling with severe heat. the bbc�*s arunoday mukharji has the latest and what it means for business. in fact, in one city in northern india, temperatures

touched 50 degrees celsius. so it's been a harsh few weeks, and it's likely to remain that way for a while. andjust imagine, india has been conducting an entire election in this heat. experts say increased concretisation of cities and the lack of green cover is to blame for soaring temperatures every year. apart from obvious health implications, an extended heatwave has the potential to have a huge economic impact, as well. there are risks of decreased workforce productivity — especially for construction workers, delivery agents, and farmers most importantly. they are particularly prone to heat—related illnesses because they're outdoors most of the time. there are worries that an intense heatwave could impact agriculture and also, in turn, affect inflation. nearly half of india's population is involved or employed in agriculture, and about 90% of india's workforce works in the unorganised sector, so most of the jobs are outdoors, and it is this segment that is to be impacted the most in the event of any extended heatwave.

weather officials say that these conditions are likely to prevail for the next few days at least. now, can you tell a marie from a rich tea? a cream cracker from a water biscuit? well, fear not as its national biscuit day here in the uk today. brits are world—leaders in biscuit consumption — at least we have got something right. the average brit is munching on three biscuits a day — that's 1,095 biscuits each year, if you're counting. do you dump or not? i don't know, this will be my first. mm, mm! pretty nice, thanks, john. sorry, iam mm, mm! pretty nice, thanks, john. sorry, i am talking with my mouth full. one person who really takes the biscuit is harriet hastings — she founded her gifting biscuits company biscuiteers in 2007. the company now has a yearly turnover of £12 million and employs more than 200 people who have iced millions of biscuits over the last five years.

i'm delighted to say harriet hastings joins us now for a chat. thank you very much forjoining us. i am so sorry to be talking to you with my mouth full. how did you come up for the idea of this hand iced biscuit company? we thought there was an opportunity to create a whole new sector in the gifting market alongside the more traditional flowers and chocolates. i think biscuits are so wonderful because in design terms we create iced biscuit collections, you can turn them into any theme or design you like. a lot of our work is in the corporate market, so also it is the opportunity to be able to make branded biscuits and biscuit designs was very attractive. they look delicious, we can see some of them being painted. how many do you make in a week? well, basically, our production is between 8000 and 15,000 biscuits per day. so in high

season i suppose we are making, again, 10,000... 50,000 per week? ., , again, 10,000... 50,000 per week? . , ., week? what is the most popular? i think probably _ week? what is the most popular? i think probably for _ week? what is the most popular? i think probably for obvious - i think probably for obvious reasons our birthday biscuits is our biggest category. but we also do biscuits were new babies which are incredibly popular. get wells, thank yous, every occasion pretty much. we are doing a lot of "good luck in your exams" biscuits at the moment. in your exams" biscuits at the moment-— in your exams" biscuits at the moment. , ., ., . ., ., moment. the sugar and chocolate rice rises moment. the sugar and chocolate price rises must _ moment. the sugar and chocolate price rises must have _ moment. the sugar and chocolate price rises must have hit - moment. the sugar and chocolate price rises must have hit you. - price rises must have hit you. how have you managed that? well, it is notjust ingredients, also packaging and labour. that has gone up about 21% in the last three years. because of the nature of our manufacturing, most of our costs are in the labour area. what we have had to try to do is offset that by increasing

productivity and really thinking about our manufacturing processes and also looking at all the obvious metrics like waste, reducing waste, and doing really everything we can to stop passing on all of those costs to our customers.— passing on all of those costs to our customers. biscuits, are they considered _ to our customers. biscuits, are they considered luxury - to our customers. biscuits, are they considered luxury and - to our customers. biscuits, are i they considered luxury and when it came to the cost—of—living crisis did you find people would pass by buying as many biscuits as in the past? ht would pass by buying as many biscuits as in the past?- biscuits as in the past? it has been a strange _ biscuits as in the past? it has been a strange three - biscuits as in the past? it has been a strange three or - biscuits as in the past? it has been a strange three or fourl been a strange three or four years because for gifting, there was massive explosion during covid. we are obviously a luxury brand, but we are very much in the affordable luxury. we are creating gifting treats, essentially. i think people are really interested in buying into things that have been handmade, and understand the care and love that goes into every single biscuit that is part of our brand value. irate every single biscuit that is part of our brand value. we are a nation that _

part of our brand value. we are a nation that loves _ part of our brand value. we are a nation that loves biscuits - part of our brand value. we are a nation that loves biscuits so l a nation that loves biscuits so would you take a biscuit quiz quickly because it is national biscuit day with yellow i will try. quick answers. where does the term biscuits come from, what does it mean?— what does it mean? oh, it is french, what does it mean? oh, it is french. it — what does it mean? oh, it is french, it means _ what does it mean? oh, it is french, it means twice - what does it mean? oh, it is i french, it means twice cooked. very good. to dunk or not to dunk? ., ., dunk? not for me! laughter - laughter what do cookies do on a website?— what do cookies do on a website? , , , ., website? sorry, i missed that. what do cookies _ website? sorry, i missed that. what do cookies do _ website? sorry, i missed that. what do cookies do on - website? sorry, i missed that. what do cookies do on a - what do cookies do on a website?— what do cookies do on a website? , , ., website? 0h, capture your information. _ website? 0h, capture your information. very - website? 0h, capture your information. very good, i information. very good, chocolate _ information. very good, chocolate digestive - information. very good, chocolate digestive or. information. very good, l chocolate digestive or rich tea? ., ., chocolate digestive or rich tea? ., . , what tea? chocolate digestive. what temperature — tea? chocolate digestive. what temperature shouldn't - tea? chocolate digestive. what temperature shouldn't oven - tea? chocolate digestive. what temperature shouldn't oven be | temperature shouldn't oven be heated at if you are preheating it cook biscuits?— heated at if you are preheating it cook biscuits? 200. 220. 200 would probably _ it cook biscuits? 200. 220. 200 would probably do _ it cook biscuits? 200. 220. 200 would probably do it, _ it cook biscuits? 4:2 220. 200 would probably do it, just take longer. would you describe these as niche quite mainstream? dog biscuits. mainstream.— mainstream? dog biscuits. mainstream. i mainstream. gluten biscuits. i mean, mainstream _ mainstream. gluten biscuits. i mean, mainstream but - mainstream. gluten biscuits. i mean, mainstream but not. mainstream. gluten biscuits. i mean, mainstream but not as| mean, mainstream but not as popular as you might think.

savoury biscuits?— savoury biscuits? yes, mainstream. - savoury biscuits? yes, mainstream. how- savoury biscuits? yes, | mainstream. how many savoury biscuits? yes, - mainstream. how many biscuits does the average _ mainstream. how many biscuits does the average brit _ mainstream. how many biscuits does the average brit eat - mainstream. how many biscuits does the average brit eat per. does the average brit eat per day? does the average brit eat per da ? does the average brit eat per day?- correct. - does the average brit eat per day?- correct. there l does the average brit eat per. day?- correct. there are day? three? correct. there are 74 billion _ day? three? correct. there are 74 billion biscuits _ day? three? correct. there are 74 billion biscuits a _ day? three? correct. there are 74 billion biscuits a year, - day? three? correct. there are 74 billion biscuits a year, 578 l 74 billion biscuits a year, 578 million kilos, how many elephants is that? is it more or less than 100,000? less. correct. _ or less than 100,000? less. correct, 96,000 _ or less than 100,000? less. correct, 96,000 adult - or less than 100,000? less. | correct, 96,000 adult males. name the top seven biscuit eating nations in terms of volume, you have 30 seconds. britain, definitely, number one. america?— britain, definitely, number one. america? . , ., , one. america? that is two, very aood. one. america? that is two, very good. somewhere _ one. america? that is two, very good. somewhere european? i good. somewhere european? ital , good. somewhere european? italy, germany, _ good. somewhere european? italy, germany, japan, - good. somewhere european? | italy, germany, japan, france, russia. is the jaffa cake a biscuit or a cake?- biscuit or a cake? cake. correct- _ biscuit or a cake? cake. correct. that _ biscuit or a cake? cake. correct. that is - biscuit or a cake? cake. correct. that is it. - biscuit or a cake? cake. correct. that is it. you | biscuit or a cake? cake. i correct. that is it. you had taking the biscuit and won lots of prizes, points, everything. harriet hastings from biscuiteers, thank you for joining us, you were terrific. it is national biscuit day and stay with bbc news.

hello there. we've seen a lot of wet weather around lately. the ground is already pretty saturated in many spots, but on tuesday, there were some sunny spells around, and of course, in the best of the sunshine at this time of year, it always feels pleasantly warm. but the general theme doesn't change over the next couple of days — more heavy thundery downpours in the forecast, some brighter spells in between. it won't be raining all the time, but it has been very wet over the last 24 hours or so with this band of rain pushing eastwards, clearing away into the north sea. some showers still behind it as we head into wednesday morning, but it is a mild start to the day. and then, on wednesday, it's another day of scattered heavy downpours, also some brighter spells, of course. this time the focus for the thundery showers will tend to be across central and eastern areas of scotland. now, some of these showers could be particularly slow—moving with light winds, so they could last for some time and lead to some very high rainfall totals, maybe even some flash flooding, so do take care within this area.

also, some thunderstorms breaking out across northeast england, down through lincolnshire, parts of east anglia, too. a good scattering of showers elsewhere, possibly drier out towards the south and west by the end of the day. and it will feel a bit warmer — highs of 19, maybe 20 degrees in the south east of england, perhaps. a few changes as we go into thursday. the low has now pulled away. high pressure starts to build in from the west. that spells better news in time for the weekend. but still another day of showers on thursday. this time, the heaviest, most thundery of the showers will tend to be across the south of england and south wales. a good scattering of more isolated showers, though, still further north. and it will be feeling a bit cooler, too, on thursday with more of a northerly wind blowing, so a slight drop in temperature for many of us. as we go into friday, the high pressure has been building in, so lots of dry weather with some sunshine developing, but windy and really quite cloudy for many eastern coastal areas, particularly for east anglia, down through parts of kent

as we head through friday. so there will be some cloud around and it won't be feeling particularly warm, but temperatures could build a little further through the weekend, particularly out towards the north and the west as that high pressure starts to edge in. so lots of dry weather, but just a brisk wind for those north sea—facing coasts and also more in the way of cloud here. but we could get to 21—22 celsius in parts of the north and the west, maybe. bye— bye.

good morning, welcome to breakfast withjon kay and sally nugent. our headlines today. crunch time for royal mail as its owners are expected to give a controversial takeover bid the stamp of approval. i'll be looking at what this means for the delivery of your letters and the company's tens of thousands of staff as it faces missed targets and another investigation by the regulator. diane abbott is readmitted as a labour mp after a lengthy investigation into her conduct, but it's not clear if she will be allowed to stand at the election. a 20—year—old man has been arrested on suspicion of murdering a woman who was stabbed on a bournemouth beach. in sport. after just four days of the tournament, british hopes in the french open singles are over. the last to go — katie boulter

and dan evans, who both lost their first round matches at roland garros.