Skip to main content

tv   The Context  BBC News  May 30, 2024 8:00pm-8:31pm BST

8:00 pm
we are humbly asking permission for the opportunity to change our country and put it back in the service of working people. what he wants you to believe is that this election is over before it is even begun, that it is a foregone conclusion. this man was a conservative mp this time yesterday. _ today, he is saying he was vote labour at the general— election, and he is- joining the party, too. if she wants to stay, then she should be up to stay. diane has been a trailblazer. 37 years, first black female mp. funking hate what is going on in my today on the uk election trail — another conservative defects
8:01 pm
to the labour party. mark logan who until parliament was disolved last night represented the key marginal seat of bolton north east said things would only get better under labour. but for the labour party itself today — things have only got messier when it comes to the confusion over one of their longest serving mps diane abbott. can she stand for the party injuly? we'll try to work out the very latest. we're also on verdict watch — we'll have an update from the courtroom in new york as the jury in the trump trial continues deliberating after asking to hear key evidence again. in any general election campaign, there's the agenda the politicians want to stick to. but then there's the unexpected — the events which throw the carefully planned programme off track. the events which throw the carefully todays there's been more of that. the events which throw the carefully while rishi sunak was out and about pushing his party's economic plans, one of his candidates — who until last night was the mp for bolton north east in greater manchester —
8:02 pm
annouced he was defecting to labour. in greater manchester — announced he was defecting to labour. mark logan is not standing at the general election, but he says he is now backing sir keir starmer as the next prime minister. and for labour, the talk hasn't been focused on policy either — it's remained on whether diane abbott, the first black woman to become an mp, and a labour stalwart will be able to stand for the party in the election. she says she's being banned. keir starmer says no decision has been taken, but his deputy angela rayner says she doesn't see any reason why diane abott shouldn't stand. all that and it's only officially day one of the campaign after parliament was dissolved overnight. it's going to be a long few weeks ahead. here's our political editor chris mason. this man was a conservative mp
8:03 pm
this time yesterday. today, he is saying he will vote labour at the general election and he isjoining the party, too. when i look back to my teenage years, 1997, when labour came to the fore at that time and we heard the song, things can only get better, i feel we are at that point again in british politics and british history, and that's why i have decided i will be going for labour at this next election on the 4th ofjuly. how extraordinary, there you are quoting labour's anthem from 1997 and you were a conservative mp 2a hours ago. that's quite a thing. it's notjust something in the last 2a hours that i have been thinking about. i have been thinking about this for a very long period of time. i believe the labour party has also been through and on a journey in the last few years. let's spell this out explicitly. are you saying the conservative party right now is unfit to govern? i feel the conservative party ijoined a decade ago is unrecognisable from the conservative party of today. in what sense? that's not to say that there aren't, my colleagues from the conservative party previously, that have been doing a lot of hard work or necessarily haven't been doing good things,
8:04 pm
i don't want to necessarily be critical in that sense, chris, but i think overall, the sense and the tone, the hope and the optimism is with labour and it is no longer with the conservative party. what would you say to the person who says, "you should have a bit more guts," you should have crossed the floor, as a couple of other of your conservative colleagues did, literally crossed the floor, while you were still an mp rather than waiting until now? i had thought about it, obviously, before, but thing was i felt more comfortable with my ending as an mp at midnight last night, so just 12, 2a hours ago. i felt that was the right thing to do because the electorate did vote me in as a conservative mp. final question, are you going to join the labour party? absolutely, application is going in today. here is the contrast, labour are proudly showing off another conservative mp while in a noisy row with diane abbott, who has been a labour mp for decades, over whether she can even be a candidate for them. theyjust want me
8:05 pm
excluded from parliament. diane abbott was suspended from the parliamentary labour party after saying jewish, irish and traveller people do not face racism all their lives. she apologised and was readmitted to the parliamentary party the other day. enter next labour's deputy leader telling sky news diane abbott should be able to stand again for the party. if she wants to stay, she should be able to stay. diane has been a trailblazer, 37 years, the first black female mp in parliament. she has shown people like me that you can be yourself. keir starmer, though, is sounding rather more circumspect. the situation in relation to diane abbott is that no decision has been taken to bar her. and we have to remember that she was a trailblazer as an mp. and this labour activist, proudly on the left of the party, has been banned, too. honestly, i'm just so shocked right now to be treated this badly
8:06 pm
after being such an active member of the party. faiza shaheen had been due to run in a crucial london seat. she has apologised for liking a social media post that allegedly downplayed anti—semitism. who keir starmer is willing to welcome to his party, and who he appears rather less enthusiastic about, is generating no end of noise. thatis that is chris mason. with today being the first official day of campaigning lets take a step back and look at the public mood and polling. joining me now isjoe twyman, co founder of delta poll. it's early days when it comes to looking at how much movement there has been since the election was
8:07 pm
called, but what have you seen so far in polls that have been published since then? far in polls that have been ublished since then? ., ., published since then? looking at all the ollinu, published since then? looking at all the polling, there _ published since then? looking at all the polling, there are _ published since then? looking at all the polling, there are lots _ published since then? looking at all the polling, there are lots of- the polling, there are lots of similarities essentially what everyone is showing regardless of the booklet particular poster involved, there's been no significant change in the standing of the labour party or conservative party since the election was called. the polls we are showing other moments are pretty much where they were before the stop adl support, our most recent boy, has a 22 point need for labour, that would be enough earn a majority of over 250, and it is a continuation of transitive scene notjust for weeks or months but years. the conservatives have not been i had in any public pose since december 20 221, and the labour party applied a double—digit lead in every pose since 2022. there are differences in leads reported by polls, anything
8:08 pm
ranging from a 12 point lead to a 27 point lead, but in all of those cases, the lead has not changed in a significant way, and the point to a large labour party majority. has large labour party ma'ority. has there been * large labour party ma'ority. has there been any h large labour party majority. has there been any specific polling so far when you see regarding key marginals? in the end, it is a national election but in essence it's lots of many elections in any constituency? it it's lots of many elections in any constituency?— constituency? it is not yet been detailed work _ constituency? it is not yet been detailed work on _ constituency? it is not yet been detailed work on that _ constituency? it is not yet been detailed work on that but - constituency? it is not yet been detailed work on that but i'm i constituency? it is not yet been i detailed work on that but i'm sure the parties will be looking at in great detail. as you say, it will come down to a handful of constituencies that will change, they'll be very close, and many others will change hands that won't be close. going back to 1997 and the conservative party worst performance in recent memory, there were still 94 seats then that had not changed hands since the second world war and had changed hands, i'm sure lucy similar things both times for this
8:09 pm
—— this time for both parties. with five long weeks to go, many things can still change, so i imagine that kind of analysis will be of more interest later on in the campaign, once more and more people are engaged withjesus. once more and more people are engaged with jesus._ once more and more people are engaged with jesus. what are the key issues, engaged with jesus. what are the key issues. since — engaged with jesus. what are the key issues, since you _ engaged with jesus. what are the key issues, since you mentioned - engaged with jesus. what are the key issues, since you mentioned them, . issues, since you mentioned them, according to the post that you have seen already are ones that could be real deciding factors? we talk about the cost of living and immigration, but are they what the polls see people want to know about more? if you asked before one of the most important issues facing their family or the country, the cost of living comes top by some distance, then the second tier future is the nhs and the economy generally, then there's a third tier talking about issues facing the country, immigration comes top, and arthur issues like education and taxation and crime, all in that there chair, but another
8:10 pm
way to look at it is historically it often comes down to two things. a party that, always the case in every election, it is been the party i on leadership and economic management wins the most seats at the general election, so you could say it is all about that. the labour party leads both of those details by some distance and has done now for some time, and so it is notjust the voting intention figures that are bad news for the conservatives, it is the underlying data, particularly on leadership and economic management that should give the parties significant cause for concern. . ~' parties significant cause for concern. ., ~ , ., parties significant cause for concern. ., ~ g ., parties significant cause for concern. ., ~ , ., if you want to look at the bbc news poll tracker, we have one running on
8:11 pm
the bbc news website, you can see a screenshot of it there and see how the polling has changed in recent months and years, and it is updated every time we get a new poll, so take a look at that. a topic which always dominates campaigns is the issue of taxation. the conservatives and labour have both said they wouldn't raise vat if they win the general election. value added tax currently stands at 20% for most items. the liberal democrats also said they would not "look to raise" vat or income tax. but as our economics editor faisal islam reports, similar pledges at the last election didn't stop the tax burden rising to its highest level since the second world war. how are you doing? you all right? the town hall meetings... that was fantastic... ..the scoops of ice cream... look at that. ..and the campaign water features continue for party leaders, but today's main stunt surrounded claim and counterclaim over taxation.
8:12 pm
the conservatives attempting to seize the initiative with a promise emblazoned on a van not to raise vat, and trying to claim labour would do so. in watford, a key battleground seat, market day — election fever yet to grip here, but some signs the economic weather may be getting a little brighter. i am feeling hopeful. get the good weather, and everybody�*s feeling good. the tax promises from the main parties now appear to disarm what are overwhelmingly the three biggest taxes. income tax, national insurance and vat are nearly two thirds of the entire tax take. the shared pledge is that the rates of all three will not be raised, but what does that mean? these are a very curious, even eccentric set of tax pledges from all the main parties trying to convince voters. even if you park what happened in the past parliament, from now, over the next three years, there's going to be an £11 billion rise in the tax burden from that ongoing freeze in tax thresholds,
8:13 pm
even if the rates stay the same. and that is the equivalent of a penny on the basic rate, the higher rate and more. and so it raises the question about whether these tax pledges are actually worth much to voters at all. to break down these vat pledges further, i am joined by helen thornley, a technical officer at the association of taxation technicians. welcome to the context. when you look at the major penalties proposed so far, what stands them apart when it comes to their pledges on taxes, but specifically vat, national insurance and income tax? it is difficult at _ insurance and income tax? it is difficult at the _ insurance and income tax? it 3 difficult at the moment to pick them apart based on that because they have all just apart based on that because they have alljust come out and said they would keep the main rates of that
8:14 pm
the same. i think it is worth looking at where the wiggle room is they haven't committed to. it is worth backtracking a big, the vat is 20% on most goods and services so there are others available on electricity and gas which is 5% and certain items like food and children's clothing at zero or exempt, so we don't pay that on it. although they are all promising to keep them in 20% rate fixed, there is wiggle room in moving things out of the lower rate categories into the main rates, and the labour party have said they would like to take private school fees, which are currently exempt, as a sip play of education and move that into the main category. so they have constrained themselves in one area but there is movement in the structure of the texas still available to the parties. what do we know about — available to the parties. what do we know about the _ available to the parties. what do we know about the positions _ available to the parties. what do we know about the positions on - available to the parties. what do we know about the positions on income j know about the positions on income tax, which is something people often watch closely and can be quite a
8:15 pm
divided nine between the labour party and conservative party? again, at the moment _ party and conservative party? again, at the moment we _ party and conservative party? again, at the moment we do _ party and conservative party? again, at the moment we do not _ party and conservative party? again, at the moment we do not have a - party and conservative party? again, | at the moment we do not have a great deal of difference between the parties, and my understanding is that the labour and conservatives have had said they would keep the existing position, and what we have at the moment is we have a freezing of the threshold, so the threshold is the point where you start to pay income tax, and a higher rate threshold about 50,000, where you move from 20% to 40%, the promise is to keep that the same and if they both keep at the same for the next four years, we all end up paying a lot more texts because of the effects of fiscal drag, so more people will be pulled earn over the personal allowance, more people, like 2.7 million people, will be dragged into higher rates of text, so they are seeing the income tax was for the same, but in practice, it still has a fiscal effect for us,
8:16 pm
and in cash terms we will feel we are paying more tax over the coming years if those pledges are to keep everything the same.— years if those pledges are to keep everything the same. helen thornley from the association _ everything the same. helen thornley from the association of _ everything the same. helen thornley from the association of taxation - from the association of taxation technicians, thank you for sharing your thoughts on tax policy. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news.
8:17 pm
here on the context, we are moving around the nations to get the latest from all corners of the uk thorughout the election campaigns. earlier this week, we heard from a number of uk regional editors. yesterday, we were in wales. tomorrow, we will hear from northern ireland. tonight, let's head to scotland. 57 seats are up for grabs. before parliament was dissolved overnight, the snp was the biggest scottish party with 43 seats. the conservatives, labour and the liberal democrats held just 14 seats combined in scotland.
8:18 pm
but after a number of scandals and two leadership changes since the last election, the contest in scotland is tipped to be much, much closer. i'm joined by brian taylor, political commentator and columnist for the herald. brian, i was looking at some of the polls from scotland so far looking as though the labour party it will have a much better time and is it is not going to look too good for the snp, what is your reading of that remarkjust one pole. if snp, what is your reading of that remarkjust one pole.— snp, what is your reading of that remarkjust one pole. if you pause i su: nested remarkjust one pole. if you pause i suggested that _ remarkjust one pole. if you pause i suggested that there _ remarkjust one pole. if you pause i suggested that there was _ remarkjust one pole. if you pause i suggested that there was a. - remarkjust one pole. if you pause i suggested that there was a. not - remarkjust one pole. if you pause i suggested that there was a. not so | suggested that there was a. not so long ago, when they used to weave that labour vote in parts of scotland rather than counted, they were not dominant, they dominated the central both but in scotland as a whole they were not dominant but
8:19 pm
weren't pretty far ahead, they had at 1.50 mps out of the 72 that were then elected. what changed was the advent of the scottish national pilot... there was a surge of support for the snp and those who backed the concept of independence rolled in behind the snp and the manage to contrive one more thing which was to say that if you are standing for scottish interest and wanted scottish interest represented more vigorously at westminster, the way to that was to vote for a party that was linked to scotland, so they managed to sustain a fairly decently for some time, both in the polls and number of mps and msps when they formed the devolved government at holyrood, but that is beginning to shift. the labour party won a third place, a poor one, behind the
8:20 pm
conservatives, because there was a polarised opinion during the main part of the union and the snp, the labour party wants to break them down and say there wanted to be with scottish interest and they have overtaken the conservatives in certain polls and seem to be in the lead, but the snp counter that by saying the previous leader, humza yousaf, said that labour party are issue in across the us —— uk. they argued that the only way to kick the tories out of is to them out of the six seats they all. just tories out of is to them out of the six seats they all.— six seats they all. just a quick question, independence - six seats they all. just a quick question, independence is - six seats they all. just a quick i question, independence is often dominated the parliamentary elections even though it obviously dominates the scottish elections as well, looking at this general election, how much do you think independence will be a deciding factor given that the polls seem to
8:21 pm
suggest the snp are losing support? the polls are still 50 50 on independence, in favour of the union, the snp leaderjohn swinney his first priority is to get concerns of the people in line, but you will say i will tackle or attempt to tackle these things as your first minister but you will see misted —— argue as well there would be a better perspective on their independence.— be a better perspective on their independence. be a better perspective on their indeendence. ., ~ i. ., , , independence. thank you for bring us u - -to-date independence. thank you for bring us up-to-date on _ independence. thank you for bring us up-to-date on the _ independence. thank you for bring us up-to-date on the polls _ independence. thank you for bring us up-to-date on the polls in _ independence. thank you for bring us up-to-date on the polls in scotland, | up—to—date on the polls in scotland, and will be with brian back on the context during the course of the election campaign. now to another election we've been watching, this time in south africa. early results from show the governing african national congress, the party of nelson mandela, are short of the 50% vote share that they need to stay in power without coalition partners. millions of south africans have been
8:22 pm
voting in what's been seen as one of the most pivotal elections since apartheid ended. the electoral commission of south africa says turnout in wednesday's general election was high. full results aren't expected until the weekend. my colleague catherine byaruhanga has been speaking with the first deputy secretary general of the anc for their reaction to the results so far. it's still early days in this electoral process in terms of the results that are coming in from different parts of the country here into the national tally centre just outside ofjohannesburg, but what we see so far is that out of the results that have been posted, the ruling anc party is getting around 43% of the share of the vote, followed on by the da, a long—standing opposition party here in south africa. now, this would be a bad result for the anc because it would lose its majority in the house of parliament. well, to discuss this,
8:23 pm
we'rejoined by nomvula mokonyane, who is the deputy secretary general of the anc. thank you forjoining us on bbc news. is this a terrible day, a terrible few days for the anc? not at all. actually, i think it is too much to then say this is a terrible day. we're hardly at 30%. we've moved beyond the 1 million mark. we are doing well in most of the provinces. others are as yet to come. it's only 2.2 million of the 27 registered voters and 20 million of the registered voters who've voted. and therefore for the anc, we know that we've even surpassed what others predicted. and hence, we will quietly listen interact and get feedback from our different provinces as the election's bringing information. and that definitely shows we will be
8:24 pm
able to sail through this process. you're likely to still be the biggest party in south africa's parliament, but the message we heard from voters throughout the day yesterday was they wanted change. they thought that the anc just wasn't providing enough for them when it came tojobs, electricity, water. do you take on board that message of change? we have taken on board the message of change. change in south africa started in 1994, and change in south africa will be ongoing. it will be opportunistic of anyone to think that just the removal of the african national congress will bring change. we ourselves as the anc, we want to see change at a faster pace, working together with the people of south africa, and notjust change in terms of one party replacing the other. our policies are sound. interventions that we've made as the anc are good. we are also on the path of renewable and self—correction, but of importance, we are a party
8:25 pm
that has been with the people of south africa not for contesting elections, but throughout the struggle for the emancipation of the people of south africa. and therefore there is nothing that shows a rejection by the people of south africa. in fact, it is because of the hard—won struggles led by the anc, that today there was never even a fight about parties being eligible to contest. and here today, there's no war. all of us are working together. that report from my colleague who has been covering the south african election for us. those results coming this weekend, you are watching the context, i'll be back after a short break, stay with us. hello there. today, we've seen a mixture of sunshine and showers, a familiar mix, but fewer
8:26 pm
showers are mostly focused on southeastern parts of england. 0ther eastern areas of england, though, seeing a spell of rain just for a while. that may well tend to move away temporarily. and it is going to be turning drier over the next few days as high pressure noses in from the atlantic, but we've still got that northerly wind overnight. it will bring more cloud to eastern parts of england and we'll see a bit more rain arriving later on in the night as well. further west, though, we're going to have clearer skies and lighter winds, a few short lived mist and fog patches by the end of the night and a little bit cooler where we have the clearer skies. temperatures in scotland could be down to six oi’ seven degrees. still some cloud, though, coming in on that northerly breeze for eastern england into the midlands and may well bring with it some rain or some showers. those becoming confined to the southeast of england in the afternoon. other areas may brighten up a bit, but it's further west and further north that will have the best of the sunshine light winds as well — a very pleasant day. if anything, it's going to be a bit warmer than today. so we'll see temperatures in the sunshine getting up to 20 or 21 celsius. again, a bit coolerfor some eastern
8:27 pm
areas of england, perhaps as it will be for saturday. there's our area of high pressure. the winds are falling lighter. even across eastern parts of england, still a northerly breeze, so maybe one or two showers here. not very many, many places will be dry, and again, we've got the sunnier skies closer to the high to the north and west of the uk, and those temperatures again reaching 20 or 21 celsius, a little bit cooler around some eastern parts of england. but temperatures are going to rise here the second half of the weekend — a change of fortunes to come. the high pressure is never quite making it to the uk. it's getting squeezed on sunday and all this cloud is coming in from the atlantic around the top of the high that will be working its way into much of scotland. northern ireland eventually bring a little rain into the far northwest, but we've still got some sunshine for england and wales and a sunny a day with lighter winds across east anglia in the south east means it's going to be warmer here as well. temperatures are going to peak at 22 or 23 degrees. still quite warm in the sunshine for eastern scotland, cooler in western scotland
8:28 pm
with the cloud and things and things are going to change a bit as we head into next week. there's some rain in the forecast mainly for northern areas of the uk. furthersouth, it's looking generally dry still and, if anything, still quite warm as well.
8:29 pm
hello, i'm rajini vaidyanathan.
8:30 pm
you're watching the context on bbc news. jurors in donald trump's hush money trial are deliberating in new york for a second day. we will be live at the core in manhattan in the moment. sport, and for a full round—up from the bbc sport centre, here's gavin. thank you very much indeed. to the french open, and novak djokovic is looking in ominous form as he seeks to defend the men's title at roland—garros. he beat roberto carballes baena in straight sets. question marks had surrounded the three—time champion and his form, but he went through the gears to take the first two sets 6—4, 6—1. the third set was wrapped up 6—2 to ensure the world—number—one stayed on course for a record—extending 25th grand slam.

0 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on