rishi sunak insists he has not lost hope of winning the general election after a cabinet minister warned against a labour super majority. the labour leaders are keir starmer says if you want change, you have to vote for it. both leaders are taking part in a sky tv leaders event in grimsby which is getting under way now. now it's time for the panorama interviews with nick robinson, john swinney is up next. we've all got a

decision to make about who has power and influence in westminster. you get the opportunity to have your say in the election onjuly the 4th. on monday, we heard the prime minister, with the leader of this cash —— nationalists scottish party. first minister, welcome. my premise at the start of this interview is that what you say in the next half hour will be broadcast in full. i want you to have the chance to make your case to people. do your best to do answer the questions and to confirm they are new to you. seven weeks ago, you probably thought you were going to be relaxing, putting yourfeet

probably thought you were going to be relaxing, putting your feet up, scotland play germany and the euros, and then the snp leader quits. you become first minister, party leader, and now this. i become first minister, party leader, and now thie— and now this. i didn't expect to be in a situation _ and now this. i didn't expect to be in a situation i _ and now this. i didn't expect to be in a situation i am _ and now this. i didn't expect to be in a situation i am in _ and now this. i didn't expect to be in a situation i am in today, but i in a situation i am in today, but it's a tremendous aunt there, it's the greatest honour i could ever have in life. i didn't quite expect would be thrown into a general election quite as quickly it gives them an opportunity to engage directly with the electorate across the united kingdom and who i am. you will know what they'd be saying. ?f}’s will know what they'd be saying. 70% in a recent poll— will know what they'd be saying. 70% in a recent poll said they wanted a fresh team of leaders. doesn't that mean a change from you? a change from the snp? notjust a change from the conservatives in westminster. they are concerned about the issues

that affect their lives, but the cost of living come about the challenges in public services, but the implications of brexit, for example, and i think people are hurting just now. it's been a difficult period for people, and what i want to do is address the concerns that people have and work as hard as i came to lead a government that addresses the core concerns in scotland. it also makes sure that the interest of scotland are well protected as a consequence of this election. you are well protected as a consequence of this election.— of this election. you have been in ower of this election. you have been in power for — of this election. you have been in power for 17 _ of this election. you have been in power for 17 years, _ of this election. you have been in power for 17 years, he _ of this election. you have been in power for 17 years, he first - of this election. you have been in power for 17 years, he first camel power for 17 years, he first came to office before the iphone was invented. you've been in powerfor almost all that time. i want to show you a photo. there you are. you, nicola sturgeon, alex abbott, you are the three musketeers of the smp. do you expect that their record is john sweeney's record? there success

or failures or john sweeney's record? there success orfailures orjohn john sweeney's record? there success or failures orjohn swinney �*s? of course i am part and parcel of the snp. i've been part and parcel of the snp for over a0 years and it's been my privilege to be in government. i've had what i didn't quite think was going to be a sabbatical year, but it's turned out to be a sabbatical year and i'm now back in office as first minister of scotland, but i'm crucially wanting to build on the record of the snp government because i think the record of the snp government is a strong record where, for example, we have transformed the availability of early learning and childcare in scotland. we are in it since we came to office, that's doubled. so for families in scotland, they are saving over five and a half thousand pounds a year because the snp government has put in place 140 hours of early learning and childcare. the basic proposition in the whole of the united kingdom. so we're going to come to your record in a second in government, but we should start where you start when this general election, this election, let's remember, for westminster was called, you said july the fourth. election day is independence day.

you've promised that you haven't published your manifesto yet. you said line one, page one will be independence. what does that mean? what does this westminster election mean for the move for scottish independence? what we're seeing is that if people vote for the scottish national party and we win a majority of seats in this election, that will trigger a process of negotiation with the united kingdom government to bring about scottish independence and to enable people to to have that choice. so nicola sturgeon was right, what she said when she said if you get a majority, if people in other words very nice snp in the numbers you want, that's it. no more referendums. you're empowered to have negotiations straight away with the government in westminster for scotland to leave the uk. well, what our position is, is that if we win a majority of seats, there will then be a process of negotiation with the united kingdom government

to give what we set out and will set out in our manifesto democratic effect to the rights of the people of scotland to be independent. so in my view... no second referendum. well, i'm just coming to that. my, my view is that that should involve scotland having a referendum because i accept that the choice of scotland becoming an independent country is a choice of great significance for the people of scotland. so you've changed approach from nicola sturgeon. she said, no need for a second referendum. your party conference motion here — i've got it — says the scottish government would be empowered in that situation to begin "immediate negotiations" with the uk government. that's. .. you're saying no? no, that's exactly what i'm saying. immediate negotiations to bring about scottish independence, so that we can have the ability of the people of scotland to decide their own constitutional future. and for me, that's a fundamentally democratic point that... just so people... forgive me interrupting, i just want to be clear. second referendum or not,

if you get a majority of seats? well, i think the best way to bring about scottish independence is for there to be an open, democratic referendum, as we had in 2014. 0k. and everybody accepts that's the best way to go about this. now, what i'm saying... and if you don't get it, you go ahead? well, what i'm saying is that we've got to... we've got to give democratic effect to the wishes of the people of scotland, and that's what our manifesto will call for. 0k. you also said at the beginning of this campaign, you said the election was about "abc". i don't want to go through your abc. yep. your first a was austerity. now, you have used a number again and again and again, in the scottish leaders' debate last night, accusing other parties of bringing about austerity. before we come to that, do you accept that independence — line one, page one of your manifesto — independence would itself lead to austerity? no, i don't accept that. i accept that an independent scotland would have to operate sustainable public finances. i think anyone that looks at my track record, i was ten years

the finance minister of scotland and i ran a balanced budget. i knew how to control money. i knew how to raise revenue. i knew how to make sure that we lived within our means. so i accept that an independent scotland would have to exercise financial stability and fiscal sustainability. so, all of those considerations have to be part of the discussion about independence, but it's an obligation of government to make sure that's done properly. of course, part of what we're wrestling with today is the fact that the united kingdom government of liz truss spectacularly didn't do that and caused the type of increase in mortgages that people are wrestling with in scotland today. but, you see, you keep quoting independent experts as saying westminster will bring about austerity, whoever�*s elected, that's what you've been telling scottish voters. those independent experts are from something called the institute of fiscal studies, and they wrote this. "it's highly likely that an independent scotland would need to make bigger cuts to public spending or bigger increases

to taxes in the first decade following independence. bigger than the rest of the uk." what the institute for fiscal studies say in all of their analysis about scotland's finances, they look at scotland's finances within the united kingdom, but they also accept — and i think it's important to accept this — that as an independent country, we would have much more flexibility and manoeuvrability as a country to improve our economic performance. scotland's already improving our economic performance. if you go over the years since 2007, gdp per capita in scotland has increased at a faster rate than the rest of the united kingdom. the productivity gap between scotland and the rest of the uk has substantially, if not entirely, been closed over that period. so that's an indication of how we can improve economic performance even within the united kingdom. but what an independent country allows us to do, and if you look at other small european independent countries, they've got stronger economic performance than the uk, and scotland would be in a position to emulate that.

now, i'm going to make you an offer. you're no longer first minister, i'm going to make you prime minister. you keep waving around this warning of £18 billion of cuts. i make you prime minister now. no, you can't be, of course, but i'm going to make you prime minister. what do you do? do you cut spending? do you increase taxes? because that's what you've done in scotland, isn't it? you've cut spending so much that in snp—run glasgow, teachers are being laid off. you've increased taxes so much that according to the taxman, the hmrc, a thousand higher earners have left scotland, haven't stayed here, because taxes are much higher here than they are in the rest of the uk. well, there's lots of points to make, so this might be a long answer, nick. first thing is that more people have come to scotland to pay tax than have left scotland. so that's the first point. we've got a net increase in taxpayers coming into scotland,

despite the fact that you correctly say we've increased taxes on higher earners. the second point is that we have to live within a fiscal envelope that's largely determined by the uk government. so, we get a block grant from the uk and we can supplement it by changing tax, which we have done. and as i've said already, we've increased taxes on higher earners. that's given us £1.5 billion more to invest in public services in scotland. and, still, there are cuts in glasgow. well, that's because... snp austerity. well, that's because of the austerity that we're living with from the uk government, and that brings me... well, it's snp austerity. no, no. you've frozen council tax. you are not allowing councils in scotland to increase their council tax. that's the snp government. the snp—run council then lays off teachers. that's snp cuts, snp austerity, isn't it? but then what we do with the council tax freeze is that we fully fund that. we give the city of glasgow council — as we give every council in the country — the money to compensate for the revenue they've lost by freezing the council

tax. now, to come back to your very first question, what would i do as prime minister? well, what i'd do as prime minister to avoid the £18 billion worth of cuts is that i would replicate the tax changes that we've made in scotland in the rest of the uk, and that would essentially address the £18 billion fiscal gap. taxes up. that's what you're voting for if you vote snp, taxes up. well, people know in scotland that the snp has increased taxes on higher earners, so we... some teachers, some policemen — not the millionaires, not the business owners, ordinary people pay more tax. well, for people who are teachers or police officers, the difference in tax is very limited. but of course, there are other benefits — like the fact that people in scotland don't pay for university tuition, or that they don't pay for prescriptions, or that they have generally a council tax payment that's about £500, £600 lower than if they were living in england. so, there are different considerations to be borne in mind, rather than just focusing on the tax issue. but i'm not... but i'm not in any way seeking to downplay the significance of increasing tax for higher

earners, because what that's done... yeah, and it means that if you have power in westminster... ..is that's allowed us to invest in our public services. forgive me. it means if you have power in westminster, not as prime minister, but it's possible that the snp may have crucial votes in westminster, what you're saying is you would vote to persuade the government in westminster put people's taxes up. even people on relatively modest earnings would have their taxes go up because that's what the snp believe in. the alternative to that, of course, is cuts in public spending, and if there's a choice to be made of the cuts in public spending that the labour party and the conservative party are essentially signed up to — and that's the point the institute for fiscal studies have made, that labour are not being open with people about the fact that they've signed up to £18 billion worth of cuts because the conservatives have already signed up to them. i'm saying the answer to that... they deny it, as you know. but let's talk about... but they can't deny that, nick. that's part of the point i've been

making in this election campaign. sure. labour are ducking and diving on the fact that... let's talk about ducking and diving. ..there's a next generation of spending cuts that are going to come from labour. let's talk about ducking and diving. let's talk about openness, then. because one of the things that westminster does... of course, there are many things that you have power over as the leader of the scottish government, as the first minister of scotland, but you don't have power over everything, which is why you want independence. but one of the things that westminster still has power on, over, is the decision about whether to develop new oil and gas fields. that is a decision for westminster. but snp mps sent to westminster would have a vote on that. so really simple question. do snp mps vote to approve new oil and gas fields, protecting jobs in scotland — you keep saying up to

100,000 jobs are dependent on that industry here — or do you vote against and keep the oil and gas in the ground? it essentially depends on the impact of any such developments on our move to net zero. so what we've said is that all licences and all applications need to be considered on a case—by—case basis, based on their compatibility with our objectives on climate. so there there will be that, that test is absolutely vital to be undertaken to determine whether any new development can be compatible with the necessary journey to net zero that we must make as a society. i don't know whether anybody watching knows that that means. you see, you with your predecessor, nicola sturgeon, when it came to opening a huge new oilfield, rosebank, said it was "the greatest act of environmental vandalism "in my lifetime". when you were in coalition with the greens, we knew it was no more oil and gas. now there's an election, it's all a bit hazy, isn't it? it's all about, "we're not sure, we don't say yes, we don't say no." well, i think the consistent point in all of those different statements you've put to me is the necessity

of undertaking the assessment as to whether the development is compatible with our objectives on net zero. we've got a climate emergency. none of us can duck that. i can't duck that, and i'm not prepared to duck it. but i've also got to manage a transition for the oil and gas sector that enables that sector to establish fiscal sustainability and also to then be able to contribute towards the journey to renewable energy, which is a very significant opportunity in scotland, particularly in the field of offshore wind. so you're saying some new oil and gas, possibly? in certain circumstances. well, what i'm saying is that every particular development has got to be tested against its climate implications. sure, but what i can see, so forgive me, but people are passionate about climate change, so you don't need an assessment. it's obvious. it stays in the ground. oil and gas stays in the ground. and that's what nicola sturgeon used to say. it's what the greens say in scotland, and you seem to now be wobbling on it. well, what i'm saying is that there has to be

an assessment to determine whether or not that, any licence application is compatible with our net zero obligations. now the prime minister has basically said he will license 100 new projects. i think that is utterly irresponsible. it is... that is climate denier status of the first order. so we've got to have a rational, considered process to look at every application to determine whether it can be sustained and compatible with our climate objectives. you know what that means, though? it means uncertainty for people who are prepared to invest not a million or two, not 100 million or two, there are people watching your interview who've got billions of pounds to invest in scotland and they hear you unable to say yes or no. they hear uncertainty. they hear people playing politics with 100,000 jobs in oil and gas. and won't they think, "we'll keep our money where we like. "we won't invest in scotland."

i think what they'll hear is a rational process from a rational government which says we've got we've got an obligation to get to net zero. we've got to tackle the climate emergency and we've got to make our contribution to that. and the oil and gas sector accept that. they accept that journey�*s got to be made. what they're looking for is a government that will work with them to make sure that they can manage that transition. i've lived in scotland all my life and i saw the hopes and the livelihoods of my peers blighted by the industrial devastation of margaret thatcher in the 1980s. and i will not do that to the oil and gas sector. we've got to move on first minister, because i've got a lot to get through. a—b—c, i mentioned that you talked about. we talked about one of them — austerity, brexit and cost of living. we may come to later. i want to go to d, you didn't list d, but i'm going to give you a d.

d is for delivery. who runs, just for clarity for viewers, not just in scotland but around the uk, who runs the national health service in scotland? who determines its budget? who makes the decisions about the nhs in scotland? the scottish government that i have the privilege to lead. and last night you were told by a woman at the scottish leaders' debate about her 93—year—old mother who had waited six hours for an ambulance and two hours outside the hospital. and someone shouted at you in that debate at one point, "you always say it's someone else's fault." you're to be held to account, aren't you? you in the snp. it's your government, your health service. you run it. of course. and ifi... if i give my complete answer to the point last night, i apologise to that lady because her mum should not have had that experience. and i reiterate that apology just now, because i am conscious that there are people who are not getting the service that they should get, despite the commitment of the nhs staff and personnel, the length and breadth of the country. now we have a national health

service which the government is giving record sums of money to support. the health service, when i became finance secretary 17 years ago, the health service accounted for about 33% of the scottish government's budget. it is now in excess of 40% of the scottish government's budget. so as a proportion of our budget, where we've had the ability to take those decisions, the health service is occupying a much greater part of our budget. but i accept, despite all that money, despite the fact that we've got record staffing levels, demand is so high in the health service, we're not able to deliver the service that that lady that put that to me raised with me last night. you've been honest about the problems. will you be open and honest about the fact that you made promises? your predecessor as first minister was health minister, humza yousaf. he said he would and i quote, "eradicate long waiting lists in the nhs". yet here in scotland, 7000 still waiting more than two years for treatment, 37,000 waiting over a year. you have not delivered

on the nhs, have you? we're making headway on the long wait, but i accept that there are still people waiting too long. there are other measures which show the comparative performance of the health service in scotland. so if you take a&e waiting times, for example, scotland has, in core sites, the best performing a&e system in the united kingdom, better than england, better than wales. and we've had that... still the worst ever in the history of scotland. well, that's. .. worst ever. ina sense... my point is this, that we are, we have an a&e system that is performing the best in the united kingdom, and we have done so for the best part of ten years. but there are still challenges that exist within the national health service, despite the fact that we've substantially funded the nhs in scotland.

you have all the power, you tax more than anywhere else in the united kingdom, you spend more on the nhs per patient than they do in england and wales, and yet still you've got 37,000 people waiting more than a year. and i think that's a measure of the scale of demand there is for the national health service. and we've got to honestly confront that. that's why we are leading debates in the scottish parliament about the reform that's necessary to make sure that we have much more emphasis on prevention, so that we're supporting people to live lives more substantially within the community and not requiring hospital intervention. so that that can get us into a situation where we reduce the demand that is presenting on the national health service. now, one other delivery point. schools. why have they gone backwards under the snp? you'll know there's an internationally recognised way of comparing the way schools perform on maths and reading and science. there's no complicated statistics in this. you're sliding down the tables and you, mr swinney, you were responsible for scottish schools for six years. you were the minister for it. well, there's a variety of data

that you can look at. for example, national5, which is our our central qualification in scotland, there is a record level of national 5 passes achieved by pupils in scotland in 2023. if you look at the outcomes that young people are achieving from education, we've got a record number of young people leaving school in scotland and going into university, college, training or work, as a consequence of their education. this is an international measure. nobody says, "oh, there's a better way of measuring." this is the international... scotland's scores are going down and england's got scores going up. it's one of the measures, and what i'm saying to you is that there's a variety of measures that can be looked at and the outcomes that are being achieved in scottish schools are resulting in the highest number of young people, the greatest proportion of young people going on to positive destinations. i said d was for delivery. i'm going to give you another d. d is for distraction, d is for division. you spent, in the scottish government, when you were at the heart of it,

an enormous amount of time in a way that divided your nation, discussing how people change their gender, rather than delivering. if there is a labour government, will you pursue that? will you still change, try to change the way in which men and women can change their gender? i think the key point here is that the scottish parliament decided these issues, it wasn't the scottish government, it wasn't the snp on its own. the scottish parliament, with support from the snp, green, liberal democrat, labour and conservative members voted for the legislation that was passed. it's a simple question. do you pursue it, with a different government in westminster? or would you drop it? well, clearly we are unable to pursue it because... well, if there's a new government... well, that would be up to that uk government to determine are they... are they going to change their stance? but as things stand just now, i can't pursue it because the law makes it clear i can't do that. you've changed your stance. after the row about a rapist called adam sent to a woman's prison

after he changed gender whilst waiting to stand trial, and asked that he be called isla. have you, john swinney, changed your attitude on this controversial stuff? well, i think... there's two points i'd make there. the first is that we've got to be absolutely focused on making sure that we protect the rights of women and girls as we wrestle with all of these issues. and these are legitimate and real issues. we've got to protect the rights of women and girls. single—sex spaces. and the equalities act, of course, enables us to do so. the second point is that we've got to understand that there are great challenges that face the transgender community within our society. i don't want to do what others have done, which is to turn a minority, or try to turn a minority, into an enemy. i want to bring people together. i think you haven't changed your mind on it. but you've had the chance to say, if you have. let's go to what the core issue

for you is — the politics of this general election. remember? voting for westminster — you hardly need reminding of that. there's a simple point that many people make. if, as many scots do, they want the tories out, out of downing street, out of government in westminster, it's very simple. you vote for the only party that can replace them in power in westminster — the labour party. you vote for keir starmer�*s party. i don't think it's as simple as that at all. i think what's happening is that the conservatives have completely and utterly lost it in england. it's very clear that england is going to vote to oust the conservatives. so in scotland, we've got to think very carefully about what we do. and the point i've been making throughout this election campaign is that an incoming labour government has committed itself to carry on with tory austerity, with £18 billion worth of cuts that they've signed up to. and people need to understand that. they haven't said that, to be clear.

well, do you think it'll happen? they've signed up to it. they've accepted the starting point. that's the key point. and what i'm saying is that people in scotland need to understand — the folk who will always stand on their side, who will always defend the interests of scotland, will be snp members of parliament and that's why people should vote snp in this election. there are dozens of seats in scotland that could make a difference to who is the next prime minister of this country. are you really saying that you think there is no difference between having keir starmer in downing street and the labour party, or having rishi sunak? you're willing to take that risk? well, i don't think there's any risk involved because england is going to vote against the conservatives. it's plain — it's absolutely clear. you've spent 20 years telling people they've got to have independence because england always votes for the tories! well, listen, england's going to vote against the tories. it's absolutely crystal—clear. so people in scotland have got to decide who's going to protect them at westminster and the snp will do it. let me ask you one final question, john swinney. after 17 years in power in scotland,

after nine years as the biggest party in westminster, in scotland, three leaders in two years, one questioned by the police, the other resigned having lost the confidence of holyrood, failures to deliver in the nhs and in schools, what you yourself have called a housing emergency in scotland, does the snp really deserve — deserve — the votes of scots? the snp's had a tough time in the last few years. i'm the first to accept that. that's why i'm here. and i'm here to sort it out and to strengthen the snp and to build the trust with the electorate, and that's exactly what i'm doing. john swinney, first minister, thank you very much indeed forjoining me. thank you. now we're speaking to seven party leaders ahead of the election. the prime minister, rishi sunak, we've already done. you can see that on bbc iplayer.

keir starmer is next, on friday evening. that'll be at 7.30pm on bbc one and bbc iplayer. goodnight. thanks for watching.

hello, i'm ben thompson. you're watching the context on bbc news. we want to continue to push on an urgent basis with our partners, with qatar, with egypt, to try to close this deal because we know it is in the interest of the israelis, palestinians, the region, indeed, the entire world. translation: we need to take clear position and demand - put an end to this war. 37,000 martyrs have died so far, and thousands have been wounded in addition to this collective punishment policy of starvation that has been used against our brothers in gaza. although mr blake and says both sides. antony blinken says both sides have previously agreed to this plan, and are now making changes. it does still seem that

the fundamental differences between the two sides, the fundamental demands