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tv   Newscast - Electioncast  BBC News  June 29, 2024 10:30pm-11:01pm BST

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their appearance follows pop star dua lipa's dazzling performance on friday night. now on bbc news...newscast: electioncast. newscast from the bbc. hello, it's adam, and i'm not in the newscast studio because i'm making a flying visit to glasgow. it's paddy in the newscast studio, and i've just seen professor sir john curtice in reception. it's all starting! hello, it's laura in the studio, and i am here. hello and welcome to newscast. newscast is the bbc�*s daily news podcast, which you can listen to on bbc sounds. but every week we're popping up here on radio four. normally we're live at 11:00, but this is sort of pretend live, because we're actually recording it at 9:00 because laura is quite busy doing...
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uh, well, a programme tomorrow, a big programme with some very important guests and also practising for the election. so for most of the day i will be locked in the basement in broadcasting house. so, if this is recorded, does that mean it'll be better than the last three weeks that we've done? we can only hope. i wonder if they've taken that bit out. anyway, this is getting too meta now, so, i actually wonder how many hours it is until the polls close. well, we don't know because we don't know what time it is because we're in the wrong time. oh, this is getting very confusing. shall we get on with it? yeah, yeah. laura, what are your predictions, then, for the last few days of campaigning? well, ithink, look, it's been a very, very eventful campaign. so, you know, 2a hours ago, nobody would have predicted that the prime minister would have inserted himself very dramatically into a race row about reform candidates. so i'm not going to make predictions about specifics. however, generically, what we'd see at this moment when there are four days left on the stump, is every single political party doing as many miles as they possibly can.
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ed davey got a private jet to go and get on his lib dem battle bus that's going to start atjohn o'groats and i think go all the way down to cornwall. all of the leaders, we're going to see out and about. i think there's a big labour rally today. there might be some celebs involved. ooh, watch out for echoes of the sheffield rally in 1992, everybody. so we'll see lots and lots of images of campaigning. in terms of surprises, the parties won't want any. i mean, in fact, what we've been characterised by as pundits watching this election is stubborn polls, unusual events and the two parties that are likely to form a government, labour and conservatives, devoid of a "shining city on the hill" idea. and i'm not being rude to the conservatives and the labour party, but in last week's newscast we discussed previous elections with massive offers. this is basically a giant opinion poll election, in which the opinion polls have been as dominant as the political parties themselves,
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and with four days left, i still say we should be prepared for events— and unexpected surprises. and i am still staggered that the prime minister of my country has used the p word on national television, adam, in the last 24 hours. yeah, it was interesting thinking back to the the profile we did of rishi sunak with some journalists and people who know him, which you can listen to on bbc sounds, we were remarking on that fact that his race never really comes up, other than when he became prime minister and everyone said, "oh, it's the first british asian prime "ministerand he's a hindu." and then all of that disappeared. and so it's been quite weird that it's then come roaring back, but sort of with a negative framing because of those comments from a reform uk campaigner. and so yeah, for me, it's quite weird and it feels almost quite retro that that's the discussion about the prime minister's race that we're having, that it's because of a racial slur.
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but i think there will be many voters, whether they are of an ethnic minority or not, who will have actually been heartily pleased to hear the prime minister go after that kind of language that had been expressed by a reform activist and revealed by our colleagues at channel four news, and to see him, according to people who work for him, to see him in that way, actually being genuinely angry, genuinely forthright, genuinely speaking with conviction, rather than one of his sort of political scripts. so if you spin back a few weeks, what did rishi sunak — a few months, frankly — often get criticised for? sticking to an incredibly careful political script. spreadsheet man. spreadsheet man — accused of being robotic. i don't think anybody could watch that — apart from perhaps the deepest, deepest cynic, and, you know, there are some of them around — i don't think anybody could watch that clip from yesterday and think that he was not expressing a genuinely held conviction and anger about what had been said about him and the impact on his daughters, as he said. but, you know, there
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were lots of commentators yesterday, lots of conversations online saying every british south asian will have heard that word, will have had that slur chucked at them. and to see the most powerful politician in the land stand up and call it out had meaning. yes, and also, i mean, ithink until i actually witness physical excrement coming out of the mouth of people in our public conversation, i won't think it's got any worse. for years, on radio four on sunday morning, we have heard people beg for our public conversation to improve. we have had the murder on the streets of two of our mps, jo cox and david amess. we have had a sewer of public conversation on social media. many people have come on the airwaves on radio four begging for us to up ourgame. we have had, just weeks ago, nigel farage, who many of our listeners say is a failure trampolined by the media, who has failed seven times to be elected. he told us that our prime minister didn't understand our culture, and that was obviously to do with the d—day matter,
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which we've criticised, shared the criticism of here on the airwaves. and that was then explained away as being, "he couldn't go into a pub." but actually, we do need to say on radio four that the prime minister of this country hasjust been forced to use the p word, and it is a moment, with days to go in this election, and in a way, i'm not surprised. what was going to happen in our public...? except, well, i was going to say he wasn't actually forced to use the p word because — and i'm disagreeing with you here very respectfully, paddy — because actually there were choices here. you could make a choice tojust ignore it and not dignify a slur with repeating it or even acknowledging it. or you could refer to it and paraphrase it, but not say the offensive word. or you could then have the middle—ground approach the bbc has taken to it, which is to broadcast it but bleeped, but everyone knows what's underneath the bleep. or you could take the position the prime minister took, which is kind of like the top end of the scale, which is to actually just repeat it and say the word. but i think that's the point
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here is from, i think, a personal but also a political point of view that rishi sunak and his team have decided to say, "enough", and they knew exactly what they were doing. i think they knew that people would be shocked. they knew that it would get headlines for him to repeat the slur rather than just as adam said, "oh, i disapprove of anybody "using that kind of language. "it's not the kind of thing." so they put rocket boosters on the story by doing it. but i think it was personal as well as political. of course, though, there are question marks being asked about why rishi sunak had not called out other kinds of racist behaviour or incidents in the same way, with the same level of anger, with the same level of conviction. of course, eyebrows were raised when he didn't come rapidly with strong condemnation of what frank hester, the conservative donor, had said about diane abbott, the longest serving female black mp. he did condemn that language, but the conservative party really, really had trouble over a few days giving it that kind
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of very stark, clear condemnation. and there are various other episodes, you know, i mean, in all political parties, yes. but it is a regular criticism of the conservative party that in various different incidents they have been slow to call out, particularly islamophobia, but other kinds of insults and other kinds of standard of behaviour. so i think this is not straightforward for rishi sunak, but it is very much a big moment in the campaign. whether it will shift any votes or not, i have no idea. but for him it is definitely an important and memorable moment of him as a politician. some of his supporters might say both there and at the debate this week that we talked about on wednesday night in nottingham, some people might feel in the conservative party, "where was this guy a few weeks ago?" well, i mean, i do stand corrected by adam. i did hear a very interesting discussion on today, led by mishal husain, that the prime minister did not have to repeat the p word. so actually, i do stand corrected by you. i think i said he was compelled to use the p word, but i suppose what i'm trying to do isjust
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feel that sort of sense of ownership he was trying to portray to the public, that it's the most emotional i've ever seen him, and i'm not_ the expert that you two are. i think without doubt. and you've just summed it up. where was this man? he has had form in the last few days, including in the leader's debate. again, that was on with mishal husain, funnily enough on the bbc. so look, that's an issue that's hot in the news. adam, you started off saying, "what will the last four days bring?" and inevitably i'm bound to say more of the same. i am braced for surprise. i think that's a very wise way to look at the at the whole course of this election — events, events, events. i think that's right, because actually at the beginning of the campaign, people sort of thought, "oh, well, maybe "it will be a bit boring", because the two central protagonists and the small parties have a big role in this election, but the two central protagonists are routinely called, you know, dull and duller by some of their opponents, which is very rude, but i emphasise that's not my phrase or, you know, they're like a local bank manager. and i'm not insulting bank managers,
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but, you know, rishi sunak and keir starmer are both sort of technocratic, not fire and brimstone politicians. so it was, "oh, this campaign might be a bit of a yawn—fest." actually, anything but, because the events have been wild — gamble gate, if it's big enough to call it a "gate", you know, the d—day disaster, now, this race row, the entrance of nigel farage and the behaviour and the vile remarks that have been revealed almost daily by some of the people who are standing for his party, who we should remind listeners, have not all been chucked out, as he seemed to suggest on television last night. he said, "oh, i disown these people. "i don't want anything to do with them." they're still standing. they're still on the list for the party. yeah, which is incidentally the same with the greens. the green candidate who said that hamas are the home guard in the french resistance. that person's still standing. the green candidate who said that october 7th is orchestrated, that person's still standing. and i go back to where i started — boring people at the beginning of our newscast.
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paddy, you'd never bore me. well, the thing is that when will we all get together and and say that the public conversation has descended into the sewer? i don't know, because we've only been hearing this for about ten years now, a desperate attempt to go back. and also, i will say, now i'm on my soapbox, i'm not at all sure that the member of the public at the leader's debate who asked the two leaders, sir keir starmer and rishi sunak, if they were the... "are you the best that can be offered?" i'm not at all sure that man is speaking for me and with respect, he may very well be a radio four listener and listening, so i don't want to personalise it, but i don't think that's very good manners and i would rather prefer the return of manners, adam. and you can call me miss manners if you want. i'm just going to sit up more straight now. yeah, i actually have just sat up more straight, just as you said that. it's that reflex reaction. i mean, i am in the city where i went to school, so maybe that's why. i'm glad you mentioned that, paddy, because i've been thinking about this quite a lot, because me and laura were both in the spin room
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on wednesday night at the bbc debate in nottingham, and that guy, robert, who asked that question, it was something along the lines of, "what is wrong with our political system "if you two are the best that we've got?" and it got a big round of applause in the room, and i think the reason those of us who were in nottingham jumped on that was because, ok, on the stage you had the labour leader and the conservative leader, and then up popped robert to represent what feels like quite a big chunk of the public, who just aren't sure or aren't convinced or aren't enthusiastic by the choice between those two. and so it seemed like, "oh, actually, robert's almost "like the third person on that stage. "and that sort of feeling is normally a bit invisible." so we jumped on it because of that. and then there was just the response in the room. i mean, he got the biggest round of applause from the audience. and of course, everyone in the room is looking for the electric moments, because that's what makes a better story about debate night. and it wasn't until the next morning where actually the other side of the argument of people saying, "hang on, is that really...?" well, as you were just saying, "is that a polite way "of phrasing that question?"
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and then people saying, "well, hang on, we expect quite a lot "of our politicians." and then of course, you've got the us debate, which was just a completely different, lower level of quality than the one we just had, some people would argue, and so then that's why the narrative around that question kind of rebalanced over the next 2a hours. so i'm glad you gave me an opportunity to talk about my personaljourney around that question. unusual for you to talk about your personaljourney, adam. yeah, well, my flight home got cancelled, so that's another aspect of my personal journey. well, if you're wondering what on earth is going on, listeners, you are listening to radio four, but this is a special election episode of newscast, which is the bbc�*s daily news podcast. during the election, we are on air every day, normally available on bbc sounds, but every saturday morning we have the pleasure — you perhaps have the slightly more dubious pleasure — of having us coming out of your wireless, or wherever you are listening to the radio this morning. "wireless." i mean, even i'm not still going on about the wireless. we're not meant to say the wireless? no, no you are. you're going to win votes from me. i'm going to say...
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well, because you're very much in your outrage... i would love to speak about fm, but i would be sacked. if you're allowed to come on here and say wireless... i'm over the moon that you have. now, look, can the two of you remind me of other incidents close to polling day? i'm not going to hold you to the final week. but there have been famous... did you mention the rally at which neil kinnock in sheffield said, "we're all right!"? idid. he's been very candid on radio four speaking tojim naughtie and it was the most extraordinarily candid thing. he said, glenys, his wife, said, "it's not in their eyes." adam, you're imminent. yeah, i was listening to that. sojim naughtie, he's been doing these series of pieces for the world at one, where he's been travelling around the uk and visiting significant places. and as a geographer, as i always bang on about studying geography and how much i loved it, i love it when we bring places back into the conversation. and yeah, his piece about the sheffield rally, and i was just going to say exactly the bit that you picked out, paddy,
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which was neil kinnock saying, "yeah, we knew, me and glenys, "from going around the country two weeks out that we weren't going "to do it. " and that's interesting because a lot of the commentariat hadn't picked up that message. it wasn't until much later. but it is interesting because i always thought the last kind of two weeks of the election was, yeah, nothing that much ever happens because everyone�*s so disciplined and everyone�*s got their messages. no, no. but actually, sheffield rally was the week before, mrs duffy, when gordon brown got caught on the hot mic, that was ten days before. was it? that was an absolutely astonishing story. i mean, they'd not had a good campaign and it was clear the way it was going. but that is one of those news stories where i remember it happened and the, just the kind of crackle in the newsroom and everybody went, "stop what you're doing!" and it was a huge story. whether ultimately it made the blind bit of difference in people's decision—making, you know, we'll never really know. but it was a massive story. you know, a real calamity. intersting that immigration
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was the hot topic that led to the exchange with gillian duffy and gordon brown saying. _ "who put me with that bigoted woman?" and she was later said to have simply been expressing a fear that people had about integration based on the numbers of people arriving. that's why it was such a devastating story, because labour had been long accused by not listening to people's genuine concern about changes they could see in their community. pressure on primary schools, for example, if you had people who had come from eastern europe in a time during freedom of movement and there were suddenly extra kids in the class, but no extra teacher, or looking at how people's, you know, i remember the story, one mp telling me of a roofer who'd been charging £200 a day for years. some eastern european roofers had come and were charging £150 a day, and i remember them telling me the story. they tried to... it was a labour mp. they tried to go and talk to gordon brown about it and say, "what am i going to tell this guy?" not in any way a sort of, "oh, we don't want these "people in our country. " but it was an mp with a genuine concern from a constituent who felt
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so frustrated that the labour leadership, as he saw it back then, wasn't acknowledging that concern. you know, the economy was in a very different place. people looked at immigration in our political debate in a completely different way. but that's why that story was also so damaging. there was a sort of top—level embarrassment at having been very rude about a member of the public, but it spoke to something wider, which was that labour had not wanted to acknowledge the concerns that people had about how quickly some of their communities had changed. also, i remember being in the newsroom with you, laura, and the crackle, but also in the back of my mind thinking, "hmm, was there a different world "where actually a judgment was made that gordon brown had an expectation "of privacy in the back of his car, and actually, maybe "in a parallel universe, that recording never emerged?" oh, we had a big discussion. i mean, that was a discussion. and there was a decision by one of our other rival broadcasters to play it. and then once it's out there in the public domain, then, you know... anyway, we should probably not divulge some of that. the other thing
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i remember about that day was then when he was doing thejeremy vine show, gordon brown, at lunchtime, and we managed to get a camera in there. and you had gordon brown sat with his head in his hands. laura's got her head in her hands now. i'm doing it. i'm doing the action. i remember it. and his team said, "no, "that's just how he sits when he's concentrating." and actually you can sort of imagine somebody sat there, like, with your head in your hands. what what are the other up to polling day events? when i ask this question, i should say to you listening that we have a team of producers, many of them now clutching their hipflask. their heads in their hand. because they're concentrating. not their hip flask. their heads in their hands. and i have been provided with a cheat sheet, and i'm not sure i really remember this moment, but i'm going to read it out as if i as if i've researched it myself. cameron's west ham momentjust under two weeks before. oh, dear. when he got his football team wrong.
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yeah, yeah. i can't remember that. so he's like a supporter of aston villa. but then he was asked and his mind went blank and he said west ham. or it might have been the other way around. i'm not sure west ham was a sort of devastating political moment, but but it was a big gaff. but it was a comparison. it wasn't a very eventful campaign. i was actually on. it was on a saturday morning and i was the political correspondent on duty that day. well, i remember it because i know nothing about football, and i had to talk about football for about four hours, and i was like, no, i was the only person that sounded less credible than david cameron that day. i hope you remember that it's a game with two halves, and it's not all over till it's all over, and then it's not all over. that's the key thing. can you explain the offside rule? well, there's not time on this edition. that's a mercy. borisjohnson also went to go and hide in a fridge, and it boiled out of the fact that piers morgan, such a wallflower, was so irate that borisjohnson hadn't done an interview with him and susanna on good morning britain, and our colleagues over on itv, that they sort of harassed him and harassed him and they got their reporter on the ground more or less to to try to chase him
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into doing an interview. and he went and hid in a fridge. they were doing a morning visit, sort of delivering the milk at a dairy. so there was a reason why they were there, and there was a big fridge that a man could actually get into. so it's not like he was trying to kind of climb into a small fridge with a jar of branston, but it was a more ridiculous thing. you don't have to keep your pickle in the fridge. neither do you have to keep your eggs in the fridge, can i just add? we've just followed kitchen cabinet when this is aired. if it's aired, if this edition is aired ever, then we will have followed kitchen cabinet and jay rayner will tell you your eggs can nestle happily on your counter. even if it's really, really hot? i'm moving on now. um, no, that's interesting. how how can how will people going into the polls be prepared, numberone. and i think there's an underreported issue of the postal votes. yes, particularly if you are listening in scotland. so there are irate, quite understandably, people who went on holiday because it is now the school holidays in scotland and didn't get their postal vote in time. and there is now the beginnings of a giant mess with postal voting in scotland, and there's some sort of emergency setups that have been put into place.
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but there are — and, newscasters, tell us — if you are a scottish holiday—maker and you are on holiday and you haven't had your postal vote and you're going to be denied your franchise because the mail was a bit rubbish, then tell us. anecdotally, and also the bbc in scotland reported on this story yesterday, it's a significant problem. well, we've also opened a postal voting clinic on broadcasting house for sunday morning because i've also heard of a household who've have received two postal votes because of the boundary changes. so there's a lot of sort of innocent reasons why you haven't received a postal vote. why some people are reporting to us, they've received two. adam, do you think that — and this is a trend — more and more people have been using postal votes since your career as a political expert started? oh, yeah, political expert! that's not started yet. chris was quoting the statistic the other day, on newscast, wasn't he? which is that it's now up to something like 20% having been in single digits
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in the 90s, in terms of the number of people who get postal votes. and the parties love it. why? because it means they can essentially get votes in the bag, right? you know, vote early and often. i'm not suggesting there's anything wrong. the parties love it because it means that when they have areas where they think they can count on people, it's literally getting your vote in early and often. and also they get sort of early indications of what is going on. and also so much of the last week when it comes to the ground campaign is aboutjust working out who is going to vote for you and making sure that they go out and vote for you. so, when those canvassers come to your door, normally when eastenders is on, they're not necessarily there to convince you to vote for their party or their candidate. they're trying to gauge your level of enthusiasm for the political party, and whether you are a person who maybe needs to be sent another leaflet or have a visit from the candidate in the next couple of days, whether you've already
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voted by a postal vote or whether you're the sort of person that maybe needs a little nudge on polling day, and maybe another little visit at maybe 7pm on thursday to check whether you voted. and i remember being quite surprised, i think it was in the 2010 election, when i went out and did a piece about what those canvassers are actually doing, that it wasn'tjust the kind of, "oh, please, can we tell "you about our policy on, like, hospital parking?" and actually it's sort of not cynical, but as kind of methodical as that. and theyjust have a big list. and then of course, it's also about finding out who's never going to vote for you. and so you shouldn't waste any time or resources on trying to sway that person at all. and we will see on the last day, on polling day itself, a massive, massive "get out the vote" operation. i mean, literally people coming and knocking on doors saying, "have you voted yet?" "can we help you?" we'll also get, you know, parts of the country where activists will sort of offer to drive people to the polls and those kinds of things, because getting the vote out, and this is a particular anxiety on the labour side, getting the vote out really, really matters. there's a genuine fear in labour.
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we were talking about it last week, that because of the coverage of the election, because of the scale of the polling gap, that many of their natural supporters mightjust think, "oh, "well, i don't have to bother because it's in the bag." and of course, sounds a trite thing to say, but every single vote matters. there will be seats where the majority comes down to a couple of hundred votes, maybe even less than that. and you know, a win�*s a win — even by one vote. and no political party ever wants to feel that they lose seats because they didn't try hard enough on the day. so we can say, because we'll be back in a week, and we can say that turnout is going to be a player, and undecided voters who swing are going to be responsible for changing the makeup of parliament. the polls have told us since we began to expect a change of government. so can i, with nerves fraught, and we don't have to wait very long to know the answer, can i frame a question that's different to who's going to win, which is what happens on july 5th? how quickly are the mps coming back?
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what happens to what used to be a summer holiday in politics? what's going to actually happen? you know, when will mps of all stripes come and say, "hello. i'm a new mp."? ok, so before we get to that, just briefly, because i think we haven't really said this, the tories are going to keep on trying to basically scare people into not voting labour. people will have seen that sort of surrender advert a couple of weeks ago, someone said to me, "we'rejust going to try to terrify voters." as you can see, that's what they're trying to do. labour is just kind of trying to do more of the same, create that atmosphere and expectation of change in terms of the mechanics once we get there. so the exit poll will drop on thursday night at 10:00. bong! we probably know the result. the actual result sort of early hours in the morning. it will probably become clearer. that depends exactly when things come in. then what's likely to happen is around about 10:00 in downing street, we are likely to see a candidate, whoever it might be, emerge to address the nation.
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we're likely then to see another candidate. if there's a change, we're likely see then somebody else coming to downing street at about 11:00, then, to address the nation. so look, if the polls are right, clearly this is pointing to a labour majority of some variety with a huge range of options. but essentially we're likely to see this sort of transfer of power, if there is a transfer, or the confirmation of power, if there is a sort of miracle for the tories, sort of mid—morning on friday, then they get on with appointing a cabinet, whether it's a brand new cabinet or a shuffled pack. if rishi sunak manages to hang on to power, that will be on friday afternoon. saturday morning, likely to be the first cabinet meeting. so that is the sort of traditional pattern. but as you said, paddy, you know, expect surprises. but that's the traditional choreography of this time next week. and mps then arrive at westminster on tuesday and you have to start... the first thing you do is elect a speaker and then everyone gets
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sworn in where they come in and line up and swear their oath. and then the weird thing is, because there's likely to be — irrespective of what the outcome is — there's going to be a big churn of new mps, and then people have to make their maiden speech, and some people have to wait months and months and months to actually make their first speech in the commons. it's not like everyone lines up and introduces themselves like a sort of speed—dating event. will they go on holiday straightaway? i think if labour wins, they are likely to extend a little bit so that they can say, "look how hard we're working, look "how quickly we're getting on with things." but i don't think they're going to do anything as radical as say, "we're going to work all summer." but there's an irony here that politicians at the end of a campaign are completely and utterly broken and exhausted, and that's just the moment where they're going to have to start working even harder — as we are. as we come to a close on saturday's newscast, on bbc sounds and on radio four, it's been lovely to be with you. we will be back tomorrow on bbc sounds. paddy, you'll be on broadcasting house at 9:00. i'll be on bbc one at 9:00 and then we'll be back together for newscast. adam, what are you doing for the rest of the day?
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i'm going to get on the train. and kirsty wark was telling me it's going to be very busy because it's the first day of the school holidays, so i can do some research about who didn't get a postal vote on the train. excellent. bring it back to us next time we alljoin together. bye bye. bye. newscast from the bbc.
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live from washington, this is bbc news. the label leader urges a clear mandate for change. the final weekend of the election campaign. reformed uk drops three election candidate for derogatory and offensive comments. agile farage tells the bbc he wants nothing to do with them. president biden vows to fight on despite his poor debate performance against donald trump at the new york time calling him to leave the race. welcome to bbc news. with just five
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days to the uk general election rishi sunak and keir starmer have been out campaigning a defence and support for veterans. at an event in london this evening the labour leader warned that nothing could be decided even though opinion polls suggest that labour is on course to win. meanwhile visiting a temple tonight the prime minister said that his hindu faith guided him in his public service and said he was proud that the united kingdom was a world most successful multiethnic, multi—faith community for the adding we should all be uplifted by that. meanwhile, reform has withdrawn support from the it's it's candidates because of offensive comments that they reportedly made. our political correspondent begins our coverage. the finishing line is in sight. we've had the manifestos, the pitches and promises. now the campaigns are all about persuading supporters to get out and vote. change is possible.
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most of all, they need to be convinced.

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