as global markets wrap up a relatively strong first half of the year, we take a look at what's to come for the rest of 202a. the boss of us pharma giant eli lilly addresses concerns, as generic weight—loss drugs become more accessible. hello and welcome to business today. i'm steve lai. as we kick off a new month and the official start of the second half of 2024, let's recap some of the key challenges the global economy faced over the past six months. in the us, the federal reserve has not provided much clarity on lowering the cost of borrowing as the economy grapples with a major cost of living crisis. china's growth recovery is also concerning amid a persistent

property crisis and soft domestic consumption. added to that are geopolitical tensions with wars in ukraine and the middle east fuelling global uncertainty. i spoke with jameel ahmad, chief analyst at gtc group, about what to look out for in the second half of the year. i would say it was unprecedented because it was like adding everything into your shopping basket. if you look at the s&p 500, it hit new record highs more than 30 times. those are the type of records that, to use a metaphor, that cristiano ronaldo would be jealous of in his trophy cabinet. it wasn'tjust us stock market with a fantastic start of the year. we had all—time highs for bitcoin, gold, and we should talk about as well nvidia supercharging towards becoming the largest company in the world by market capitalisation. but generally speaking, we have also had some solid fundamentals. despite the highest interest rate policy in pretty much a generation — particularly in the united states, corporate earnings have been strong.

but you pointed out rightly that the biggest question that investors demand answers for is uncertainty around the federal reserve, the us central bank, and when they will finally begin cutting us interest rates. so, speaking of that, what do you think will happen, or the pace at which the fed might act? the place is going to be slow. i think that september is likely, but we can't rule it present, which would mean december. generally speaking, we were expecting the fed — again, the us central bank — to start thisjourney to cut interest rates first and pull the trigger. but, in fact, we have seen the likes of the swiss national bank, the european central bank, and are expecting to see the bank of england cut interest rates in the coming months. when it comes to the us economy, yes, growth is slowing but it is still performing reasonably well compared to its developed peers. at the same point, looking at corporate earnings and looking at the trajectory of inflation — now, inflation has dropped by nearly — from 9% two years ago towards 3%. it is like being on a diet.

it has lost a lot of weight but now, we're seeing a plateau and we're starting to go a bit above 3%. whereas in the united kingdom and europe, inflation is coming closer towards target. i think that is the biggest in certainty right now when it comes to the fed but i would still say that september is likely and we should overall, though, get a us interest rate cut this year, but not as mamy as the market wants. china has been struggling this year. do you think things will change in the next year? we have to take _ change in the next year? - have to take under perspective that china was under a lockdown for three years so it is taken a long time to get the engine revving again. the data is better but the reality is china is coming into an economic revolution which is different which means the growth we will see from them in the future is not the same as the double—digit growth we were expecting ten years ago. 5% for china will still be good for the economy that the issue at hand is of the global economy became so sensitive and reliant on demand from china for their goods but as china is slowing down, there is less demand for the exports and that's why the world economy continues to be

so worried about what's happening with china. one of the families from the boeing family sitik heard from the call. it family sitik heard from the call. . , ., . , , call. it relates to the crushes ofthe call. it relates to the crushes of the mac— call. it relates to the crushes of the mac 737 _ call. it relates to the crushes of the mac 737 jets _ call. it relates to the crushes of the mac 737 jets in - call. it relates to the crushes of the mac 737 jets in 2018 i call. it relates to the crushes i of the mac 737 jets in 2018 and 19. the sweet idea was criticised, it's said it allows boeing to avoid responsibility for the crashes that took 346 lives. the bbc reached out to the justice department who declined to boeing —— respond and boeing is yet to respond. in other news, reuters and the financial times are reporting that boeing has agreed to acquire spirit aerosystems in a deal that values the company at $4.7 billion. according to the reports, an official announcement could come as soon as monday, but the deal will still have to gain regulatory approval. spirit aerosystems declined to comment on the deal, when the bbc reached

out for comment. they currently supply aircraft parts to both boeing and airbus. turning to the pharmaceutical industry, where the world of weight—loss has been revolutionised by a new wave of drugs. ozempic is probably the most famous, becoming a byword for rapid weightloss among hollywood celebrities due to its appetite suppressing properties. us pharmaceutical giant eli lilly has similar offerings of its own and their popularity has sent its share price soaring. the bbc�*s sean farrington spoke to the company's boss and started by asking him how much of an impact these drugs will have on the world. obesity is known, and has been shown in surgical intervention studies, but also in lifestyle intervention, when you can mitigate obesity in adulthood,

you can mitigate downstream disease at some scale. there are estimates that 40% of healthcare costs — and maybe a little more than that — of chronic disease for adults is connected directly to overweight and obesity. of course, cardiovascular disease and diabetes are the largest categories of those things but there are many, many other untoward conditions that can be impacted by obesity. we know that if people can lose weight with diet and exercise, which is the first line of care, or we now have long—term studies on surgical intervention and now, short—term interventions like medicines lilly makes, we can impact the diseases that are downstream of overweight and obesity. so, if that plays out, that these medicines work like diet and exercise does,

like medical interventions — not that dissimilar, to be honest, we have an chance to address 40% of adult disease, which is pretty significant impact on the world. when you say the first line of care is diet and exercise, are there concerns that this could overtake that concept as a first line of care? inject something in you, take a pill, instead of actually improving your lifestyle? those concerns are often expressed — i see them in social media, popular media, and even in medical circles. but our position as a company — our point of view — is, and this is how we do our clinical studies, which is important — the data we demonstrate for these medications we have studied or will study in the future always has diet and exercise, calorie—restricted diet, daily movement — depending on someone's other morbidities — as the baseline of care. and then we add or don't have the medication to that and see the difference.

that should always be the case and i think there is great evidence that for long—term prevention, if you are a healthy body weight and you want to prevent these diseases that are driven by obesity, the best way to prevent those diseases is maintained a long—term healthy diet and exercise regimen. turning now to the euros, where the round of 16 kicked off over the weekend. england, spain, germany and switzerland have all made it to the quarterfinals. this year's tournament in germany is estimated to generate over $2.5 billion. key to that revenue is sponsorships and this year, six of the sponsors are from china, including aliexpress, vivo and electric vehicle maker byd. i spoke with sporting sponsorship expert ben cronin and asked him why chinese brands are taking an interest in the european market, despite rising trade tensions between china and the eu. yes, that's right, so it's because they have the appetite and the money to be able to do it, and that hasn't necessarily been the case for a lot of major western brands. i think in most cases,

they want to use the event to build market share in europe. but it also allows them to reach consumers in asia — it is, after all, it's a truly global event, it's watched all around the world. there is also evidence that chinese brands like the fact that national team football is less tribal, it's more family friendly than club football and i think chinese consumers are also attracted to these big flagship moments of national pride. but it's not an entirely new phenomenon — brands like alipay, hisense and vivo have sponsored the tournament before. what do you make of byd playing such a big part of sponsorship given that the eu and china are locked in a struggle over ev and ev products? i know that was an issue

for many people. i know uefa tried to get a german brand, a german car brand to consider the event. volkswagen was the incumbent. they sponsored 2020. but they chose not to for cost disclipline reasons. mercedes were offered the opportunity to sponsor the event and declined. i think there is a perception that german brands have, you know, suffered the consequences of the emissions scandal, covid and also slow ev sales. there is a perception that companies like byd has stolen a bit of a march on them in terms of their ability to develop affordable, high—quality electric and hybrid vehicles. england, spain, germany and switzerland are all through and there are two matches later today and they take place between france and belgium and in the other last of 16 typological will on slovenia. we will have to wait and see who will make it through. there are two more matches tomorrow as well.

and that's it for this edition of business today. thanks for watching. we will see you at the same time tomorrow.

hello. you're watching sportsday on bbc news. i'm ben croucher. better late than never: england reach the last eight at the euros,

but they did it the hard way. there was late drama in austria, too: we'll show you how george russell was handed his second fi win. and andy murray's leaving it late: on the eve of wimbledon, the two—time champion is still to decide is he'll be fit. thank you very much forjoining us. so, as expected, spain and england into the last eight at the european championship. simple as that, right? doesn't quite tell the full story. we'll kick off sportsday in gelsenkirchen, where england were barely a minute away from crashing out of the tournament. they needed extra time to beat slovakia 2—1. despite topping their group, gareth southgate's side have done little to catch the imagination, so it was perhaps little surprise when slovakia led through ivan schranz.