now, that's going to leave us with quite a messy picture, i think, on wednesday — a lot of cloud, some rain from time to time, nothing particularly heavy or prolonged. and for scotland and northern ireland, it'll be followed by some sunshine and some showers as well. and again, those temperatures reaching 16, 17, possibly 18 degrees. but that's a little below average, certainly for this time of the year. low pressure running to the north of the uk will bring some stronger winds on thursday. the next system may well bring some rain into england and wales, the southern half of the uk. the position of that rain could change, but essentially, through the week, it's still rather mixed weather. temperatures are disappointing for the time of year. there'll be some sunshine in between the cloud and the rain.

56 hours until the polls open with a leader is campaigning for every single one of your votes, but what is really going on

behind—the—scenes? welcome to newsnight, for your nightly interviews and insight. and we will bring both to you on the week when you decide who's going to run our country for the next five years. tonight, we have the man who compiles the exit poll which you will see at 10pm this thursday on the bbc one election programme, professor sirjohn curtice. that should give you — us, we hope — the first accurate forecast of the election result. we also we have harriet harman, former labour minister, former labour deputy leader and an mp for over a0 years, standing down this time. and we have sir craig oliver, former director of communications for prime minister david cameron. welcome. and nick is here as always.

cards on the table, i'm after numbers, sir craig oliver, what would be a best and worst case scenario for the conservatives politically this thursday? the conservative _ politically this thursday? the conservative party _ politically this thursday? tie: conservative party fortunes politically this thursday? tue: conservative party fortunes have fallen so far that they got around 170 seats that would be considered a good result. 170 seats that would be considered a aood result. 170 seats that would be considered a good result-— good result. right now they have 3410. a good result. right now they have 344. a significant _ good result. right now they have 344. a significant drop, - good result. right now they have 344. a significant drop, but - good result. right now they have 344. a significant drop, but the l good result. right now they have i 344. a significant drop, but the way 341». a significant drop, but the way the 344. a significant drop, but the way the narrative _ 344. a significant drop, but the way the narrative is _ 344. a significant drop, but the way the narrative is gone, _ 344. a significant drop, but the way the narrative is gone, they - 344. a significant drop, but the way the narrative is gone, they got - 344. a significant drop, but the way the narrative is gone, they got 170, | the narrative is gone, they got 170, you could say that was something they would building from, but if they would building from, but if they got down to below a hundred that would obviously be considered a complete disaster.— complete disaster. harriet harman, best and worst _ complete disaster. harriet harman, best and worst case _ complete disaster. harriet harman, best and worst case scenario - complete disaster. harriet harman, best and worst case scenario for. best and worst case scenario for labour in terms of numbers politically. labour in terms of numbers politically-— politically. the good case is winnina politically. the good case is winning a majority - politically. the good case is winning a majority because | politically. the good case is i winning a majority because the politically. the good case is - winning a majority because the last time the _ winning a majority because the last time the public at the chance to vote _ time the public at the chance to vote the — time the public at the chance to vote the elected 162 more tory mps and labour— vote the elected 162 more tory mps and labour mps say there are lots of people _ and labour mps say there are lots of peorrte that — and labour mps say there are lots of people that need to change their minds. _ people that need to change their minds, but it would be good in the best case — minds, but it would be good in the best case scenario if we have a big

majority, — best case scenario if we have a big majority, so — best case scenario if we have a big majority, so that we can deliver our manifesto, — majority, so that we can deliver our manifesto, because one of the things that people do not like is faffing about _ that people do not like is faffing about with revolts and horse trading. _ about with revolts and horse trading, they want us to get on with the job— trading, they want us to get on with the job and — trading, they want us to get on with the job and deliver the manifesto and a _ the job and deliver the manifesto and a big — the job and deliver the manifesto and a big majority enables us to do that _ and a big ma'ority enables us to do that. ., ., ., , ., that. the labour ma'ority in modern britain -- mac— that. the labour ma'ority in modern britain -- mac 1997 — that. the labour majority in modern britain -- mac 1997 was _ that. the labour majority in modern britain -- mac 1997 was 179, - that. the labour majority in modern britain -- mac 1997 was 179, a - britain —— mac 1997 was 179, a landslide with 486, the highest ever won by labour, are you expecting to beat that? t won by labour, are you expecting to beat that? . ., ., _ won by labour, are you expecting to beat that? _, ., ., beat that? i could not say at this oint. beat that? i could not say at this point- opinion — beat that? i could not say at this point. opinion polls— beat that? i could not say at this point. opinion polls have - beat that? i could not say at this point. opinion polls have never. point. opinion polls have never change — point. opinion polls have never change the government, only votes haver _ change the government, only votes have, i_ change the government, only votes have, i know that is a bit of an old—fashioned views but we still have _ old—fashioned views but we still have to — old—fashioned views but we still have to wait for people to vote, and there _ have to wait for people to vote, and there are _ have to wait for people to vote, and there are a — have to wait for people to vote, and there are a lot of voter suppression going _ there are a lot of voter suppression going on— there are a lot of voter suppression going on from the conservatives, and we want _ going on from the conservatives, and we want people to actually have their— we want people to actually have their sav — we want people to actually have their say. sir we want people to actually have their sa . ,, g ., . we want people to actually have theirsa . ,, . , their say. sirjohn curtice, by historical— their say. sirjohn curtice, by historical standards, - their say. sirjohn curtice, by historical standards, how - their say. sirjohn curtice, by| historical standards, how well their say. sirjohn curtice, by - historical standards, how well are labour doing, how well are the conservatives doing? in labour doing, how well are the conservatives doing?— labour doing, how well are the conservatives doing? in terms of the share of the — conservatives doing? in terms of the share of the vote, _ conservatives doing? in terms of the share of the vote, it _ conservatives doing? in terms of the share of the vote, it looks _ conservatives doing? in terms of the share of the vote, it looks if - conservatives doing? in terms of the share of the vote, it looks if the - share of the vote, it looks if the opinion— share of the vote, it looks if the opinion polls are _ share of the vote, it looks if the opinion polls are right _

share of the vote, it looks if the opinion polls are right that - share of the vote, it looks if the l opinion polls are right that labour are heading — opinion polls are right that labour are heading for, _ opinion polls are right that labour are heading for, and _ opinion polls are right that labour are heading for, and how- opinion polls are right that labour are heading for, and how that- are heading for, and how that compares _ are heading for, and how that compares with— are heading for, and how that compares with previously- are heading for, and how that- compares with previously when labour have gained _ compares with previously when labour have gained power— compares with previously when labour have gained power for— compares with previously when labour have gained power for the _ compares with previously when labour have gained power for the first- compares with previously when labour have gained power for the first time i have gained power for the first time as a result — have gained power for the first time as a result of— have gained power for the first time as a result of the _ have gained power for the first time as a result of the election _ have gained power for the first time as a result of the election so - as a result of the election so at the minute _ as a result of the election so at the minute the _ as a result of the election so at the minute the opinion- as a result of the election so at the minute the opinion polls i as a result of the election so atl the minute the opinion polls are giving _ the minute the opinion polls are giving 40%_ the minute the opinion polls are giving 40% which _ the minute the opinion polls are giving 40% which is _ the minute the opinion polls are giving 40% which is less - the minute the opinion polls are giving 40% which is less than i the minute the opinion polls are i giving 40% which is less than jeremy corhvn _ giving 40% which is less than jeremy corhvn got _ giving 40% which is less than jeremy corhvn got in — giving 40% which is less than jeremy corhvn got in 2017, _ giving 40% which is less than jeremy corbyn got in 2017, but _ giving 40% which is less than jeremy corbyn got in 2017, but tony- giving 40% which is less than jeremy corbyn got in 2017, but tony blair. corbyn got in 2017, but tony blair in 1997 _ corbyn got in 2017, but tony blair in 1997 got — corbyn got in 2017, but tony blair in 1997 got 43%. _ corbyn got in 2017, but tony blair in 1997 got 43%, harold - corbyn got in 2017, but tony blair in 1997 got 43%, harold wilson i in 1997 got 43%, harold wilson in 1964 got— in 1997 got 43%, harold wilson in 1964 got 45%, _ in 1997 got 43%, harold wilson in 1964 got 45%, clement _ in 1997 got 43%, harold wilson in 1964 got 45%, clement attlee - in 1997 got 43%, harold wilson in 1964 got 45%, clement attlee inl in 1997 got 43%, harold wilson in i 1964 got 45%, clement attlee in 1945 rot 1964 got 45%, clement attlee in 1945 got 49%_ 1964 got 45%, clement attlee in 1945 got 49% so, — 1964 got 45%, clement attlee in 1945 got 49% so, although _ 1964 got 45%, clement attlee in 1945 got 49% so, although it _ 1964 got 45%, clement attlee in 1945 got 49% so, although it is— 1964 got 45%, clement attlee in 1945 got 49% so, although it is quite i got 49% so, although it is quite possible — got 49% so, although it is quite possible that _ got 49% so, although it is quite possible that labour— got 49% so, although it is quite possible that labour might, i got 49% so, although it is quite possible that labour might, in. got 49% so, although it is quite i possible that labour might, in terms of a majority— possible that labour might, in terms of a majority do _ possible that labour might, in terms of a majority do better— possible that labour might, in terms of a majority do better than - possible that labour might, in terms of a majority do better than any- possible that labour might, in terms of a majority do better than any of. of a majority do better than any of those _ of a majority do better than any of those previous— of a majority do better than any of those previous occasions, - of a majority do better than any of| those previous occasions, because of a majority do better than any of. those previous occasions, because it looks— those previous occasions, because it looks as _ those previous occasions, because it looks as though _ those previous occasions, because it looks as though the _ those previous occasions, because it looks as though the electoral - those previous occasions, because it| looks as though the electoral system is going to _ looks as though the electoral system is going to work _ looks as though the electoral system is going to work in _ looks as though the electoral system is going to work in their— looks as though the electoral system is going to work in their favour, i looks as though the electoral system is going to work in their favour, in. is going to work in their favour, in terms of— is going to work in their favour, in terms of the — is going to work in their favour, in terms of the share _ is going to work in their favour, in terms of the share of— is going to work in their favour, in terms of the share of the - is going to work in their favour, in terms of the share of the vote, i terms of the share of the vote, it doesn't _ terms of the share of the vote, it doesn't look _ terms of the share of the vote, it doesn't look as _ terms of the share of the vote, it doesn't look as though _ terms of the share of the vote, it doesn't look as though it - terms of the share of the vote, it doesn't look as though it will- terms of the share of the vote, it doesn't look as though it will bel doesn't look as though it will be particularly _ doesn't look as though it will be particularly remarkable. - doesn't look as though it will be particularly remarkable. tire i doesn't look as though it will be particularly remarkable. are you sa in: particularly remarkable. are you saying that _ particularly remarkable. are you saying that they _ particularly remarkable. are you saying that they could _ particularly remarkable. are you saying that they could get i particularly remarkable. are you saying that they could get a i particularly remarkable. are you i saying that they could get a biggish majority, with a smaller boat than jeremy corbyn in 2019? flit majority, with a smaller boat than jeremy corbyn in 2019? of course, the difference _ jeremy corbyn in 2019? of course, the difference is _ jeremy corbyn in 2019? of course, the difference is that _ jeremy corbyn in 2019? of course, the difference is that jeremy i jeremy corbyn in 2019? of course, l the difference is that jeremy corbyn still did _ the difference is that jeremy corbyn still did not— the difference is that jeremy corbyn still did not have _ the difference is that jeremy corbyn still did not have more _ the difference is that jeremy corbyn still did not have more votes - the difference is that jeremy corbyn still did not have more votes than . still did not have more votes than jeremy— still did not have more votes than jeremy corbyn _ still did not have more votes than jeremy corbyn in _ still did not have more votes than jeremy corbyn in 2019? _ still did not have more votes than jeremy corbyn in 2019? of - still did not have more votes thanl jeremy corbyn in 2019? of course, the difference _ jeremy corbyn in 2019? of course, the difference is _ jeremy corbyn in 2019? of course, the difference is that _ jeremy corbyn in 2019? of course, the difference is that jeremy - jeremy corbyn in 2019? of course, i

the difference is that jeremy corbyn still did _ the difference is that jeremy corbyn still did not— the difference is that jeremy corbyn still did not have _ the difference is that jeremy corbyn still did not have more _ the difference is that jeremy corbyn still did not have more votes - the difference is that jeremy corbyn still did not have more votes and i still did not have more votes and two is _ still did not have more votes and two is a — still did not have more votes and two is a 2017 _ still did not have more votes and two is a 2017 whereas _ still did not have more votes and two is a 2017 whereas 20 - still did not have more votes and two is a 2017 whereas 20 pointsl two is a 2017 whereas 20 points behind, — two is a 2017 whereas 20 points behind, but _ two is a 2017 whereas 20 points behind, but remember- two is a 2017 whereas 20 points behind, but remember that- two is a 2017 whereas 20 points behind, but remember that if. two is a 2017 whereas 20 points. behind, but remember that if the polls— behind, but remember that if the polls are — behind, but remember that if the polls are right _ behind, but remember that if the polls are right this _ behind, but remember that if the polls are right this will _ behind, but remember that if the polls are right this will be - behind, but remember that if the polls are right this will be the i polls are right this will be the worst— polls are right this will be the worst in— polls are right this will be the worst in server— polls are right this will be the worst in server performance i polls are right this will be the i worst in server performance by far, in any— worst in server performance by far, in any british — worst in server performance by far, in any british election, _ worst in server performance by far, in any british election, going - worst in server performance by far, in any british election, going all. in any british election, going all the way back— in any british election, going all the way back to _ in any british election, going all the way back to 1832. _ in any british election, going all the way back to 1832. —— - in any british election, going all the way back to 1832. —— worstl the way back to 1832. —— worst conservative _ the way back to 1832. —— worst conservative performance. i the way back to 1832. -- worst conservative performance. where rishi sunak _ conservative performance. where rishi sunak and _ conservative performance. where rishi sunak and keir _ conservative performance. where rishi sunak and keir starmer i conservative performance. where| rishi sunak and keir starmer have been visiting gives us a bit of insight and intel, doesn't it? you can tell a lot, when _ insight and intel, doesn't it? not can tell a lot, when david cameron launched the 2015 campaign he got off the bus at chippenham in wiltshire, then a lib dems c. one of his aides got off of the bus as it what are you doing here, and said this is how we win this election. and that leading aid was craig oliver and they did not realise at the time that craig had given me an applet the conservative election campaign, which was to take out a lib dems in the south—west, and that was how david cameron got his majority. there are new seats and new boundaries now, so you cannot

make exact comparisons but you can do an applied result. it is implied that this is what the result would be. from today, every seat that keir starmer visited labour lost in 2019, and every seat that rishi sunak visited, the conservatives won it in 2019 so we see an offensive campaign by keir starmer hoping to make big gains, and a defensive campaign from rishi sunak, hoping to avoid big losses. so firstly let's see where keir starmer went. losses. so firstly let's see where keir starmerwent. he losses. so firstly let's see where keir starmer went. he went to hitchen, that is a new seat, which was won by the conservatives, implied result 50.1% of the vote in 2019, keir starmerwent implied result 50.1% of the vote in 2019, keir starmer went to the new seat of buckingham and bletchley, the implied result there in the 2019 was 52.9% for the conservatives and finally, he went to banbury, ubaldo was there, the conservative implied winners 52%, and the nearby desert

you of chipping norton, where david cameron lives, so he may have a labour mp. every seat that keir starmer visited, they conservatives won it by 50% or more. where did rishi sunak go? he went to stoke—on—trent south, new boundaries, and quite conservative result last time, 63.9%. he went to stratford—upon—avon, new boundaries, the applied result, in 2019, 60.3%. he went to nuneaton, new boundaries, the implied result in 2019? 60.6% of the implied result in 2019? 60.6% of the vote and finally, he went to hinckley and bosworth, new seat, the implied consent of the vote in 2019, 60 3.9%. in other words, every seat rishi sunak went to today, the conservatives have achieved 60% or more, and that is where the prime minister believes he needs to expand conservative energy. what minister believes he needs to expand conservative energy.— conservative energy. what do you think of that, _ conservative energy. what do you think of that, sir _ conservative energy. what do you think of that, sir craig _ conservative energy. what do you think of that, sir craig oliver? i

conservative energy. what do you | think of that, sir craig oliver? the conservative _ think of that, sir craig oliver? the conservative party is getting the same _ conservative party is getting the same polling as everyone else, that they are _ same polling as everyone else, that they are an— same polling as everyone else, that they are an extremely serious trouble — they are an extremely serious trouble and they need to have an extraordinarily defensive strategy. i extraordinarily defensive strategy. i want _ extraordinarily defensive strategy. i want to _ extraordinarily defensive strategy. i want to ask you about something that the conservatives appear to be jumping on today, comments made by keir starmer to virgin radio, where he spoke about carving out family time on a friday should he become the next prime minister. what time on a friday should he become the next prime minister.— time on a friday should he become the next prime minister. what he was sa in: the next prime minister. what he was saying there. — the next prime minister. what he was saying there. he _ the next prime minister. what he was saying there, he was _ the next prime minister. what he was saying there, he was saying, - the next prime minister. what he was saying there, he was saying, he i saying there, he was saying, he doesn't schedule any official events after six o'clock on a friday. and if he becomes prime minister he would want to maintain that. the reason he would want to maintain that as he regards family time and family with his children as incredibly important. what he means tjy incredibly important. what he means by that is, he will not be scheduling a rally at six o'clock on friday. you will not be scheduling a set cabinet subcommittee meeting on a friday evening, but those sort of things don't happen anyway. but his aides are making clear that of course if you are prime minister,

you are on duty 24—7. you have your team with you all the time, you always have a private secretary with you and a telephone, and they say that they are not too sure about these conservative attacks on him because two weeks ago, rishi sunak was asked what he admired most about keir starmer, and he said that he admired his work life balance and... james cleverly on social media scene, if you don't want to do the work, don't apply for the job. criticising sir keir starmer for what he said today. t criticising sir keir starmer for what he said today.— criticising sir keir starmer for what he said today. i think that is 'ust what he said today. i think that is just ridiculous. _ what he said today. i think that is just ridiculous. when _ what he said today. i think that is just ridiculous. when he's - what he said today. i think that is just ridiculous. when he's with i what he said today. i think that is| just ridiculous. when he's with his children— just ridiculous. when he's with his children and his wife a friday evening, _ children and his wife a friday evening, he is still prime minister. and if— evening, he is still prime minister. and if something happened, he is on call. and if something happened, he is on cait the _ and if something happened, he is on call. the idea that he is not a hard—working person after all he has achieved, _ hard—working person after all he has achieved, is— hard—working person after all he has achieved, is faintly ludicrous, realty — in a moment, we're going to hear live from a conservative minister, but first let's talk about the exit

poll that professor curtice and his team compile for bbc one viewers, which you will see at 10pm this thursday. it's always quite a moment, and he has been doing it for years. watch closely and you can see him here on the bbc�*s election programme in 1979. welcome back to those of you who have been away in your own part of the country looking at your own results, and those of you in scotland, you will probably have heard by now that bruce millan, the secretary of state, is back in, in his constituency, but the swing was only 0.5%. you had a lot of hair at one point! indeed, this was 45 years ago. back in the _ indeed, this was 45 years ago. back in the days— indeed, this was 45 years ago. back in the days of— indeed, this was 45 years ago. back in the days of mainframe _ indeed, this was 45 years ago. backl in the days of mainframe computing, no such— in the days of mainframe computing, no such thing — in the days of mainframe computing, no such thing as _ in the days of mainframe computing, no such thing as a _ in the days of mainframe computing, no such thing as a pc _ in the days of mainframe computing, no such thing as a pc or— in the days of mainframe computing, no such thing as a pc or laptop, i in the days of mainframe computing, no such thing as a pc or laptop, and i no such thing as a pc or laptop, and occasionally— no such thing as a pc or laptop, and occasionally mainframe _ no such thing as a pc or laptop, and occasionally mainframe computers i occasionally mainframe computers would _ occasionally mainframe computers would take — occasionally mainframe computers would take a — occasionally mainframe computers would take a coffee _ occasionally mainframe computers would take a coffee break, - occasionally mainframe computers would take a coffee break, and - occasionally mainframe computers would take a coffee break, and my 'ob would take a coffee break, and my job was— would take a coffee break, and my job was to — would take a coffee break, and my job was to have _ would take a coffee break, and my job was to have a _ would take a coffee break, and my job was to have a programmable l job was to have a programmable calculator. — job was to have a programmable calculator, and _ job was to have a programmable calculator, and it— job was to have a programmable calculator, and it was _ job was to have a programmable calculator, and it was that - job was to have a programmable calculator, and it was that if - job was to have a programmable calculator, and it was that if he i calculator, and it was that if he mainframe _ calculator, and it was that if he mainframe computer— calculator, and it was that if he mainframe computer broke - calculator, and it was that if he i mainframe computer broke down,

calculator, and it was that if he - mainframe computer broke down, which in the _ mainframe computer broke down, which in the event _ mainframe computer broke down, which in the event it— mainframe computer broke down, which in the event it did _ mainframe computer broke down, which in the event it did not, _ mainframe computer broke down, which in the event it did not, i— mainframe computer broke down, which in the event it did not, i should - mainframe computer broke down, which in the event it did not, i should be - in the event it did not, i should be able to— in the event it did not, i should be able to tell— in the event it did not, i should be able to tell david _ in the event it did not, i should be able to tell david butler— in the event it did not, i should be able to tell david butler instantly, i able to tell david butler instantly, what the — able to tell david butler instantly, what the swing _ able to tell david butler instantly, what the swing was _ able to tell david butler instantly, what the swing was in _ able to tell david butler instantly, what the swing was in a _ able to tell david butler instantly, . what the swing was in a constituency that had _ what the swing was in a constituency that had just — what the swing was in a constituency that had just been _ what the swing was in a constituency that had just been declared. - what the swing was in a constituency that had just been declared. so- what the swing was in a constituency that had just been declared. so that| that had just been declared. so that was my— that had just been declared. so that was my first — that had just been declared. so that was my first entry— that had just been declared. so that was my first entry to _ that had just been declared. so that was my first entry to the _ that had just been declared. so that was my first entry to the bbc. - that had just been declared. so that was my first entry to the bbc. can l was my first entry to the bbc. can ou was my first entry to the bbc. can you briefly — was my first entry to the bbc. you briefly explain what an exit poll is and how it is compiled. it poll is and how it is compiled. it is compiled by interviews recruited by its _ is compiled by interviews recruited by its source, _ is compiled by interviews recruited by its source, standing _ is compiled by interviews recruited by its source, standing outside - is compiled by interviews recruited by its source, standing outside 130 polling _ by its source, standing outside 130 polling stations. _ by its source, standing outside 130 polling stations, a _ by its source, standing outside 130 polling stations, a small— by its source, standing outside 130 polling stations, a small number. polling stations, a small number scattered — polling stations, a small number scattered across _ polling stations, a small number scattered across the _ polling stations, a small number scattered across the country- polling stations, a small number scattered across the country andj scattered across the country and people _ scattered across the country and people believe _ scattered across the country and people believe that _ scattered across the country and people believe that polling - scattered across the country and i people believe that polling station, they say— people believe that polling station, they say he — people believe that polling station, they say he was _ people believe that polling station, they say he was a _ people believe that polling station, they say he was a mock _ people believe that polling station, they say he was a mock ballot - people believe that polling station, l they say he was a mock ballot paper, looking _ they say he was a mock ballot paper, looking like _ they say he was a mock ballot paper, looking like it — they say he was a mock ballot paper, looking like it when _ they say he was a mock ballot paper, looking like it when you've _ they say he was a mock ballot paper, looking like it when you've just - looking like it when you've just completed. _ looking like it when you've just completed, would _ looking like it when you've just completed, would you - looking like it when you've just completed, would you mind i looking like it when you've just - completed, would you mind completing that for— completed, would you mind completing that for me _ completed, would you mind completing that for me and — completed, would you mind completing that for me and talking _ completed, would you mind completing that for me and talking it _ completed, would you mind completing that for me and talking it in _ completed, would you mind completing that for me and talking it in this - that for me and talking it in this mock— that for me and talking it in this mock ballot— that for me and talking it in this mock ballot box. _ that for me and talking it in this mock ballot box. and _ that for me and talking it in this mock ballot box. and that - that for me and talking it in this mock ballot box. and that is - that for me and talking it in this mock ballot box. and that is all| that for me and talking it in this - mock ballot box. and that is all the person— mock ballot box. and that is all the person is— mock ballot box. and that is all the person is asked _ mock ballot box. and that is all the person is asked and _ mock ballot box. and that is all the person is asked and what _ mock ballot box. and that is all the person is asked and what they- mock ballot box. and that is all the person is asked and what they are i person is asked and what they are required _ person is asked and what they are required to— person is asked and what they are required to do _ person is asked and what they are required to do.— required to do. immediately after somebody has — required to do. immediately after somebody has actually _ required to do. immediately after somebody has actually voted. - required to do. immediately after| somebody has actually voted. the difficulty of _ somebody has actually voted. the difficulty of doing exit polls with the uk — difficulty of doing exit polls with the uk is — difficulty of doing exit polls with the uk is that— difficulty of doing exit polls with the uk is that unusually, - difficulty of doing exit polls with the uk is that unusually, we - difficulty of doing exit polls with the uk is that unusually, we doi difficulty of doing exit polls with i the uk is that unusually, we do not count— the uk is that unusually, we do not count ballot — the uk is that unusually, we do not count ballot papers _ the uk is that unusually, we do not count ballot papers in— count ballot papers in polling stations _ count ballot papers in polling stations. take _ count ballot papers in polling stations. take them - count ballot papers in polling stations. take them to - count ballot papers in polling stations. take them to a - count ballot papers in polling i stations. take them to a central place _ stations. take them to a central place and — stations. take them to a central place and mix— stations. take them to a central place and mix them _ stations. take them to a central place and mix them all- stations. take them to a central place and mix them all together which _ place and mix them all together which makes _ place and mix them all together which makes it— place and mix them all together

which makes it very _ place and mix them all together which makes it very difficult - place and mix them all together which makes it very difficult to i place and mix them all together. which makes it very difficult to use an exit— which makes it very difficult to use an exit poll— which makes it very difficult to use an exit poll to _ which makes it very difficult to use an exit poll to estimate _ which makes it very difficult to use an exit poll to estimate the - which makes it very difficult to use an exit poll to estimate the share. an exit poll to estimate the share of the _ an exit poll to estimate the share of the vote — an exit poll to estimate the share of the vote for— an exit poll to estimate the share of the vote for any— an exit poll to estimate the share of the vote for any parties, - an exit poll to estimate the share . of the vote for any parties, because you don't— of the vote for any parties, because you don't know— of the vote for any parties, because you don't know whether— of the vote for any parties, because you don't know whether they - of the vote for any parties, because you don't know whether they are i you don't know whether they are representative, _ you don't know whether they are representative, so _ you don't know whether they are representative, so what - you don't know whether they are representative, so what we - you don't know whether they are representative, so what we do . you don't know whether they are representative, so what we do is you don't know whether they are . representative, so what we do is we use the _ representative, so what we do is we use the exit— representative, so what we do is we use the exit poll— representative, so what we do is we use the exit poll to _ representative, so what we do is we use the exit poll to estimate - representative, so what we do is we use the exit poll to estimate not - representative, so what we do is we use the exit poll to estimate not toi use the exit poll to estimate not to share _ use the exit poll to estimate not to share the _ use the exit poll to estimate not to share the parties— use the exit poll to estimate not to share the parties are _ use the exit poll to estimate not to share the parties are getting - use the exit poll to estimate not to share the parties are getting back. share the parties are getting back the change — share the parties are getting back the change in _ share the parties are getting back the change in their— share the parties are getting back the change in their share, - share the parties are getting back the change in their share, since . the change in their share, since last time — the change in their share, since last time we _ the change in their share, since last time. we do _ the change in their share, since last time. we do that _ the change in their share, since last time. we do that by- the change in their share, since last time. we do that by way. the change in their share, since| last time. we do that by way of, the change in their share, since i last time. we do that by way of, if possible. — last time. we do that by way of, if possible. qoinq _ last time. we do that by way of, if possible. going to— last time. we do that by way of, if possible, going to the _ last time. we do that by way of, if possible, going to the same - last time. we do that by way of, ifi possible, going to the same places that we _ possible, going to the same places that we use — possible, going to the same places that we use the _ possible, going to the same places that we use the exit _ possible, going to the same places that we use the exit polling - possible, going to the same places that we use the exit polling and - that we use the exit polling and last time. — that we use the exit polling and last time. so— that we use the exit polling and last time, so it _ that we use the exit polling and last time, so it is _ that we use the exit polling and last time, so it is not _ that we use the exit polling and last time, so it is not one - that we use the exit polling and last time, so it is not one exit. last time, so it is not one exit poll. — last time, so it is not one exit poll. it— last time, so it is not one exit poll. it is— last time, so it is not one exit poll. it is two. _ last time, so it is not one exit poll, it is two, comparing - last time, so it is not one exit poll, it is two, comparing the| last time, so it is not one exit- poll, it is two, comparing the one this time — poll, it is two, comparing the one this time but— poll, it is two, comparing the one this time but last _ poll, it is two, comparing the one this time but last time, _ poll, it is two, comparing the one this time but last time, living - poll, it is two, comparing the one this time but last time, living you 130 estimates _ this time but last time, living you 130 estimates of _ this time but last time, living you 130 estimates of a _ this time but last time, living you 130 estimates of a change - this time but last time, living you 130 estimates of a change in - this time but last time, living you | 130 estimates of a change in votes which _ 130 estimates of a change in votes which you — 130 estimates of a change in votes which you can _ 130 estimates of a change in votes which you can then _ 130 estimates of a change in votes which you can then change - 130 estimates of a change in votes which you can then change into - which you can then change into forecasts _ which you can then change into forecasts in— which you can then change into forecasts— which you can then change into forecasts. ::' ' ., forecasts. in 2019, reform uk did not stand in _ forecasts. in 2019, reform uk did not stand in lots _ forecasts. in 2019, reform uk did not stand in lots of _ forecasts. in 2019, reform uk did not stand in lots of scenes - forecasts. in 2019, reform uk did| not stand in lots of scenes against tories, how do you back to that in this time? brute tories, how do you back to that in this time? ~ tories, how do you back to that in this time?— this time? we will statistically mode of the — this time? we will statistically mode of the changes - this time? we will statistically mode of the changes that - this time? we will statistically mode of the changes that you | this time? we will statistically . mode of the changes that you can imagine _ mode of the changes that you can imagine that _ mode of the changes that you can imagine that one _ mode of the changes that you can imagine that one of— mode of the changes that you can imagine that one of the _ mode of the changes that you can imagine that one of the variables| mode of the changes that you can i imagine that one of the variables is always— imagine that one of the variables is always bound — imagine that one of the variables is always bound to— imagine that one of the variables is always bound to go _ imagine that one of the variables is always bound to go into _ imagine that one of the variables is always bound to go into the - always bound to go into the conservatives _ always bound to go into the conservatives model, - always bound to go into the - conservatives model, estimating conservative _ conservatives model, estimating conservative performances, - conservatives model, estimating conservative performances, this| conservatives model, estimating - conservative performances, this was a seat _ conservative performances, this was a seat that _ conservative performances, this was a seat that the — conservative performances, this was a seat that the brexit _ conservative performances, this was a seat that the brexit party- conservative performances, this was a seat that the brexit party did - conservative performances, this was a seat that the brexit party did not l a seat that the brexit party did not bite in— a seat that the brexit party did not bite in 2019 — a seat that the brexit party did not bite in 2019-— bite in 2019. they have not always been accurate. _

bite in 2019. they have not always been accurate. this _ bite in 2019. they have not always been accurate. this was _ bite in 2019. they have not always been accurate. this was 1993 - bite in 2019. they have not always| been accurate. this was 1993 when it was inaccurate, and 2017, when it was inaccurate, and 2017, when it was accurate. big ben strikes ten o'clock, and our view is that it's going to be a hung parliament. this election is too close to call. we are saying that it could be, by the conservatives short by ten of an overall majority. to, labour, the largest party, and short, by 13, of an overall majority and by the magic of psephology, we are able to predict what we think has happened tonight. big ben strikes and what we are saying is, the conservatives are the largest party, note, they don't have an overall majority at this stage. 314 from the conservatives, that's down 17. and accurate in 1992 because actuallyjohn major had a majority of 21. you have change the methodology of the polling, and since 1992 it has been pretty much on it. it

since 1992 it has been pretty much on it. . . �* since 1992 it has been pretty much on it. . , �* ., since 1992 it has been pretty much on it. ., �* ., ., since 1992 it has been pretty much on it. �* ., ., on it. it wasn't that far off, in 1992. we — on it. it wasn't that far off, in 1992, we still— on it. it wasn't that far off, in 1992, we still had _ on it. it wasn't that far off, in 1992, we still had the - on it. it wasn't that far off, in - 1992, we still had the conservatives are the _ 1992, we still had the conservatives are the largest _ 1992, we still had the conservatives are the largest party— 1992, we still had the conservatives are the largest party but _ 1992, we still had the conservatives are the largest party but even - 1992, we still had the conservatives are the largest party but even in - are the largest party but even in 2015— are the largest party but even in 2015 to— are the largest party but even in 2015 to be — are the largest party but even in 2015 to be honest _ are the largest party but even in 2015 to be honest we _ are the largest party but even in 2015 to be honest we did - are the largest party but even in 2015 to be honest we did not- are the largest party but even in| 2015 to be honest we did not say that david — 2015 to be honest we did not say that david cameron _ 2015 to be honest we did not say that david cameron would - 2015 to be honest we did not say that david cameron would get i 2015 to be honest we did not say| that david cameron would get an overall— that david cameron would get an overall majority. _ that david cameron would get an overall majority. to _ that david cameron would get an overall majority.— overall ma'ority. to be fair to john, i overall majority. to be fair to john. l was — overall majority. to be fair to john, i was editor— overall majority. to be fair to john, i was editor of- overall majority. to be fair to john, i was editor of the - overall majority. to be fair to john, i was editor of the bbc| john, i was editor of the bbc election programme in 2010 and the folklore was that actually the exit poll is a lot closer to pop the editorial people fudged the numbers which is why you got that right, so actually you are warned when you become editor of the election night programme, go with what you are told, go with what the people are saying because actually in 1992 they didn't quite and they forged it and since then everybody has gone on about it being wrong, but i have two experiences like exit polls, one is bbc editor and one on the other side as david cameron's director of policy and communications and both times when the exit poll came in, people refused to believe it because the narrative of the campaign had been so strong, they refused to

believe. in 2010 the lib dems share of the number of seats had gone down and literally, you had two hours of bbc reporters and analysts and everybody saying this is a load of rubbish, and my memory is being over talkback, stop seeing the exit poll is wrong because it doesn't look like it is and then in 2015 it was predicted that the conservatives would have enough seats to form a government, but a lot of people thought that, actually, this cannot be right either.— be right either. didn't paddy ashdown go _ be right either. didn't paddy ashdown go on _ be right either. didn't paddy ashdown go on air _ be right either. didn't paddy ashdown go on air and - be right either. didn't paddy ashdown go on air and say l be right either. didn't paddy i ashdown go on air and say that be right either. didn't paddy - ashdown go on air and say that he would eat his hat... bud ashdown go on air and say that he would eat his hat. . ._ ashdown go on air and say that he would eat his hat... and we gave him a marzipan — would eat his hat... and we gave him a marzipan hat _ would eat his hat... and we gave him a marzipan hat to _ would eat his hat... and we gave him a marzipan hat to eat! _ would eat his hat... and we gave him a marzipan hat to eat! so _ would eat his hat... and we gave him a marzipan hat to eat! so you - would eat his hat... and we gave him a marzipan hat to eat! so you have i a marzipan hat to eat! so you have to keep your— a marzipan hat to eat! so you have to keep your mind _ a marzipan hat to eat! so you have to keep your mind open _ a marzipan hat to eat! so you have to keep your mind open if - a marzipan hat to eat! so you have to keep your mind open if the - a marzipan hat to eat! so you have to keep your mind open if the exit| to keep your mind open if the exit poll is different.— poll is different. it was interesting _ poll is different. it was interesting nick - poll is different. it was interesting nick telling | poll is different. it was . interesting nick telling me poll is different. it was - interesting nick telling me i'd poll is different. it was _ interesting nick telling me i'd said that. we went to the west country 36 times in the campaign had never once asked about the strategy to win lib

dem seats. all i was asked about was, can you form a government? are you going to be in another coalition? in fact, you going to be in another coalition? infact, it you going to be in another coalition? in fact, it was a majority. the tension between the polls and the campaign and what actually happens is real. winning the majority _ actually happens is real. winning the majority and _ actually happens is real. winning the majority and reducing - actually happens is real. winning the majority and reducing the - actually happens is real. winning the majority and reducing the lib dems— the majority and reducing the lib dems successfully, you ensured you had a _ dems successfully, you ensured you had a referendum, and many of us suspect— had a referendum, and many of us suspect mr— had a referendum, and many of us suspect mr cameron never actually wanted _ suspect mr cameron never actually wanted it — suspect mr cameron never actually wanted it. . ., ., wanted it. harriet harman, successful _ wanted it. harriet harman, successful labour, - wanted it. harriet harman, successful labour, in - wanted it. harriet harman, | successful labour, in terms wanted it. harriet harman, i successful labour, in terms of wanted it. harriet harman, - successful labour, in terms of exit polls? you have experienced failures. what if that moment like you for you as a politician?- you for you as a politician? there is something _ you for you as a politician? there is something about _ you for you as a politician? there is something about those - you for you as a politician? there is something about those times. | you for you as a politician? ii—ii” is something about those times. when they start and you know the exit poll is about to drop, that is the huge moment, but clutching the lib dems close to them, which is what the tories did with the coalition, and then went after them when they became unpopular and won all the

seats. �* . became unpopular and won all the seats. �*, ., became unpopular and won all the seats-_ the - seats. it's called politics. the exit oll seats. it's called politics. the exit poll is — seats. it's called politics. the exit poll is huge _ seats. it's called politics. the exit poll is huge for _ seats. it's called politics. the exit poll is huge for losses. i seats. it's called politics. the i exit poll is huge for losses. it's seats. it's called politics. the . exit poll is huge for losses. it's a moment- — tomorrow, we will bring you an interview with a senior shadow cabinet minister. today, we're going to hear from the conservatives — home office minister chris philp. campaign isn't over and we can tell because the conservatives have posted to twitter to date on x and the official tory twitter feed, the first says, you have three days to protect your house, the only way to save yourself labour doesn't whom tax is to vote conservative on the 4th tax is to vote conservative on the llth ofjuly, an hour later, labour will tax the family home, vote conservative. what are you claiming actually is labour's home tax? there

are a range of _ actually is labour's home tax? there are a range of tax _ actually is labour's home tax? there are a range of tax rises _ actually is labour's home tax? there are a range of tax rises which - actually is labour's home tax? there are a range of tax rises which the - are a range of tax rises which the conservatives have ruled out labour haven't~ _ conservatives have ruled out labour haven't. ~ . . . conservatives have ruled out labour haven't. ~ . , , ., ., haven't. what is this home tax? there are _ haven't. what is this home tax? there are things _ haven't. what is this home tax? there are things like _ haven't. what is this home tax? there are things like capital- haven't. what is this home tax? l there are things like capital gains tax, stamp duty applying to your purchase. — tax, stamp duty applying to your purchase, council tax, all of which the conservatives have ruled out making — the conservatives have ruled out making any changes to and stamp duty we are _ making any changes to and stamp duty we are going to relieve it completely for first—time buyers up to 425,000 none of those tax changes. _ to 425,000 none of those tax changes, despite being repeatedly pressed _ changes, despite being repeatedly pressed and challenges, and despite rulinq _ pressed and challenges, and despite ruling out _ pressed and challenges, and despite ruling out other tax changes when asked. _ ruling out other tax changes when asked, those tax changes and many others. _ asked, those tax changes and many others. the — asked, those tax changes and many others, the labour party have not ruled _ others, the labour party have not ruled out — others, the labour party have not ruled out. let others, the labour party have not ruled out. , , ., others, the labour party have not ruled out. , ,~. ., ruled out. let me pause you. labour have ruled — ruled out. let me pause you. labour have ruled out _ ruled out. let me pause you. labour have ruled out both _ ruled out. let me pause you. labour have ruled out both imposing - ruled out. let me pause you. labour have ruled out both imposing capital gains tax on people's family home and they have ruled out reevaluating council tax bands. so you are wrong. when rachel reeves was asked about that a _ when rachel reeves was asked about that a couple of weeks ago, she did

not expressly rule it out to stop what _ not expressly rule it out to stop what she — not expressly rule it out to stop what she said to the studio was, i'm not going _ what she said to the studio was, i'm not going to — what she said to the studio was, i'm not going to write five years worth of budgets before we have even had an election. she is giving herself the option— an election. she is giving herself the option to raise these taxes. keir starmer told the telegraph and bbc, asked if he would ruled out capital gains tax, absolutely, it was never policy. let's rule it out, in case anybody pretends it was. then jonathan ashworth told in case anybody pretends it was. thenjonathan ashworth told times radio and sky news, we are not changing council to spending, were not doing council tax rebranding. knickerbocker rachel reeves is the shadow chancellor and knickerbocker rachel reeves is the shadow chancello— knickerbocker rachel reeves is the shadow chancellor and when she was interviewed a — shadow chancellor and when she was interviewed a couple _ shadow chancellor and when she was interviewed a couple of— shadow chancellor and when she was interviewed a couple of weeks - shadow chancellor and when she was interviewed a couple of weeks ago, i interviewed a couple of weeks ago, she said. _ interviewed a couple of weeks ago, she said, she didn't rule it out and said. _ she said, she didn't rule it out and said. im— she said, she didn't rule it out and said. im not— she said, she didn't rule it out and said, i'm not going to write five years— said, i'm not going to write five years worth of budgets. the leader of labour rule _ years worth of budgets. the leader of labour rule that _ years worth of budgets. the leader of labour rule that out. _

years worth of budgets. the leader of labour rule that out. there - years worth of budgets. the leader of labour rule that out. there is i of labour rule that out. there is the shadow _ of labour rule that out. there is the shadow chancellor, - of labour rule that out. there is the shadow chancellor, rachell the shadow chancellor, rachel reeves. — the shadow chancellor, rachel reeves, who categorically, when expressly— reeves, who categorically, when expressly asked, did little to the we have — expressly asked, did little to the we have seen from the houses for five weeks — we have seen from the houses for five weeks ago that there are 19 labour— five weeks ago that there are 19 labour spending pledges offset by ei-ht labour spending pledges offset by eight revenue races that have a £38 billion— eight revenue races that have a £38 billion hole, which means the average — billion hole, which means the average family over the next parliament will pay £2000. in extra taxation _ parliament will pay £2000. in extra taxation. plus, those figures, as you know. — taxation. plus, those figures, as you know, have been widely ridiculed _ you know, have been widely ridiculed-— you know, have been widely ridiculed. ., , . , ., you know, have been widely ridiculed. . , ., ., ridiculed. the top civil servant at the treasury _ ridiculed. the top civil servant at the treasury said _ ridiculed. the top civil servant at the treasury said specifically, i ridiculed. the top civil servant at the treasury said specifically, do not present those figures as though they have been compiled by impartial civil servant. they have been compiled by impartial civilservant. i they have been compiled by impartial civil servant. i wonder, they have been compiled by impartial civil servant. iwonder, with they have been compiled by impartial civil servant. i wonder, with three days... civil servant. i wonder, with three da s... ., ., ., ,, days... hang on, there was talk about the turtles? _ days... hang on, there was talk about the turtles? those i days... hang on, there was talk about the turtles? those junior| about the turtles? those junior civil servants didn't add them up. 21 of— civil servants didn't add them up. 21 of those — civil servants didn't add them up. 21 of those 20 submissions were not costed _ 21 of those 20 submissions were not costed by— 21 of those 20 submissions were not costed by treasury officials. in addition — costed by treasury officials. in addition to that, i think three or

four more — addition to that, i think three or four more came from government departments. two of them came from labour— departments. two of them came from labour themselves and one came from an investment bank. it is extremely well sought and clearly laid out, it's a _ well sought and clearly laid out, it's a public document, you can qooqle — it's a public document, you can qooqle it. _ it's a public document, you can google it, and it adds up to a £38 billion— google it, and it adds up to a £38 billion black hole over the course of the _ billion black hole over the course of the next — billion black hole over the course of the next parliament, which is about— of the next parliament, which is about £2000 per working household that can _ about £2000 per working household that can only be paid for by tax increases. _ that can only be paid for by tax increases, and that's why it's important _ increases, and that's why it's important to press the labour party which _ important to press the labour party which taxes they are going to put up, which taxes they are going to put up. and _ which taxes they are going to put up, and rachel reeves, shadow chancellor, declined to rule it out, it's clear— chancellor, declined to rule it out, it's clear why. is chancellor, declined to rule it out, it's clear why-— it's clear why. is to scale desperate _ it's clear why. is to scale desperate you _ it's clear why. is to scale desperate you are i it's clear why. is to scale desperate you are now? | it's clear why. is to scale i desperate you are now? you it's clear why. is to scale - desperate you are now? you are literally making things up. nonsense, i've explained to you document— nonsense, i've explained to you document your can easily google which _ document your can easily google which lays — document your can easily google which lays out what these 19 spending pledges and the eight revenue — spending pledges and the eight revenue races made by the labour party— revenue races made by the labour party are. — revenue races made by the labour party are, the numbers are there is a total— party are, the numbers are there is

a total which — party are, the numbers are there is a total which goes through in forensic— a total which goes through in forensic detail. 21 of the 28 were costed _ forensic detail. 21 of the 28 were costed by— forensic detail. 21 of the 28 were costed by the treasury and the rest are credibly sourced, a couple from labour _ are credibly sourced, a couple from labour. fsir— are credibly sourced, a couple from labour. ~ ,, . ~' are credibly sourced, a couple from labour. ~ ,, ., ,, are credibly sourced, a couple from labour. ~ ,, .,~ ., ., labour. mr sunak posted today for his twitter. _ labour. mr sunak posted today for his twitter, labour _ labour. mr sunak posted today for his twitter, labour will _ labour. mr sunak posted today for his twitter, labour will take i labour. mr sunak posted today for his twitter, labour will take more | his twitter, labour will take more of your money, label raise your taxes, don't surrender your family finances to labour. isn't that a bit which, when, eight, taxes are the highest under your government since world war ii, b, your own prime minister, liz truss, writing to the markets and helped push mortgages, and see, rishi sunak did not stay until the end of the d—day commemorations onto the sixth? firstly, the rates of tax as a percentage you pay for working people — percentage you pay for working people are the lowest they have ever been _ people are the lowest they have ever been you _ people are the lowest they have ever been. you are right to say the total tax burden— been. you are right to say the total tax burden is high. that is because we are _ tax burden is high. that is because we are paying back the cost of the interventions independent. we spent

as a country £400 million paying waqes. _ as a country £400 million paying wages, supporting businesses with loans. _ wages, supporting businesses with loans, making sure things didn't collapse~ — loans, making sure things didn't collapse. that support, which kept people. _ collapse. that support, which kept people, which enabled people and business _ people, which enabled people and business to survive, is to pay back. now you're — business to survive, is to pay back. now you're getting through that and are able _ now you're getting through that and are able to start cutting taxes, so we have _ are able to start cutting taxes, so we have already cut national insurance by 4%, £900 for the average — insurance by 4%, £900 for the average working family and were going _ average working family and were going to — average working family and were going to cut another 2% of the over the next _ going to cut another 2% of the over the next parliament, overall, by the end of— the next parliament, overall, by the end of it. _ the next parliament, overall, by the end of it. we — the next parliament, overall, by the end of it, we are committed to cutting — end of it, we are committed to cutting taxes £17 billion per year. the tax _ cutting taxes £17 billion per year. the tax rises labour admit to lying to one _ the tax rises labour admit to lying to one side — the tax rises labour admit to lying to one side the two per family, they have admitted to £8 billion of tax rises. _ have admitted to £8 billion of tax rises. no — have admitted to £8 billion of tax rises, no tax cut at all, not a single — rises, no tax cut at all, not a single one _ rises, no tax cut at all, not a single one in the labour manifesto. so the _ single one in the labour manifesto. so the difference between labour and conservative plans on tax is £25 billion _ conservative plans on tax is £25 billion a — conservative plans on tax is £25 billion a year, and that is why the

point _ billion a year, and that is why the point the — billion a year, and that is why the point the prime minister was making is reasonable. point the prime minister was making is reasonable-— is reasonable. what we know is, because the _ is reasonable. what we know is, because the ifs _ is reasonable. what we know is, because the ifs have _ is reasonable. what we know is, because the ifs have told i is reasonable. what we know is, because the ifs have told us, i is reasonable. what we know is, because the ifs have told us, if| is reasonable. what we know is, i because the ifs have told us, if the conservatives win the election, the overall tax take will rise from where it is now. it is a graph for our viewers which you won't be able to see. it our viewers which you won't be able to see. , , , to see. it will rise slightly in the first two years _ to see. it will rise slightly in the first two years and _ to see. it will rise slightly in the first two years and it _ to see. it will rise slightly in the first two years and it will- to see. it will rise slightly in the first two years and it will go i to see. it will rise slightly in the i first two years and it will go down thereafter — first two years and it will go down thereafter if you have been fair, you will— thereafter if you have been fair, you will show the whole five year period. _ you will show the whole five year period, showing it declining towards the end _ period, showing it declining towards the end is— period, showing it declining towards the end. is a period, showing it declining towards the end. . . . . period, showing it declining towards the end. , ., ., period, showing it declining towards theend. , ., ., ,, period, showing it declining towards theend. ., ., ,, , the end. is a share of gdp, but it will be higher— the end. is a share of gdp, but it will be higher than _ the end. is a share of gdp, but it will be higher than now, - the end. is a share of gdp, but it will be higher than now, under. the end. is a share of gdp, but it i will be higher than now, under both a conservative and a labour government. it a conservative and a labour government.— a conservative and a labour covernment. . , ., ., , government. it declines towards the end of the parliament, _ government. it declines towards the end of the parliament, which - end of the parliament, which hopefully your chart shows, but the difference, — hopefully your chart shows, but the difference, the gap between the labour_ difference, the gap between the labour tax plans, which they have admitted — labour tax plans, which they have admitted to, based on those, and the conservative tax cut proposals, there _ conservative tax cut proposals, there is — conservative tax cut proposals, there is a — conservative tax cut proposals, there is a £25 billion a year difference, so the average family

will difference, so the average family witt pay— difference, so the average family will pay on the admitted two policies _ will pay on the admitted two policies £1000 more labour and the conservatives and another £2000 on top that— conservatives and another £2000 on top that is— conservatives and another £2000 on top that is undeclared and analyte in the _ top that is undeclared and analyte in the document i have referred to. that is— in the document i have referred to. that is a _ in the document i have referred to. that is a big — in the document i have referred to. that is a big difference in what tamities— that is a big difference in what families will pay in tax under labour _ families will pay in tax under labour. . ~' , ., families will pay in tax under labour. ., ,, , ., , , families will pay in tax under labour. ., ,, , , ., labour. thank you. chris philp, home office minister. _ labour. thank you. chris philp, home office minister. you _ labour. thank you. chris philp, home office minister. you were _ labour. thank you. chris philp, home office minister. you were direct - office minister. you were direct occupations with david cameron when he was prime minister. the language must render, what do you think? i must render, what do you think? i think they are trying to create, effectively what the conservatives have done in the last ten days is accept _ have done in the last ten days is accept they are going to lose and they are — accept they are going to lose and they are trying to say, look, your vote _ they are trying to say, look, your vote can — they are trying to say, look, your vote can make a difference in terms of reducing — vote can make a difference in terms of reducing how much power labour has. of reducing how much power labour has i_ of reducing how much power labour has i have — of reducing how much power labour has i have a — of reducing how much power labour has. i have a different view on the textiho _ has. i have a different view on the textiho i— has. i have a different view on the texting. i am surprised that the labour— texting. i am surprised that the labour party isjust going, whenever the conservative party says, you're

going _ the conservative party says, you're going to _ the conservative party says, you're going to raise this tax, they shut everything — going to raise this tax, they shut everything down, and it seems to me the reality— everything down, and it seems to me the reality of the economic situation in the next five years is, rather— situation in the next five years is, rather than — situation in the next five years is, rather than restricting yourself, you need — rather than restricting yourself, you need to give yourself some leeway, — you need to give yourself some leeway, and labour are expecting every— leeway, and labour are expecting every time — leeway, and labour are expecting every time the conservative say, you will raise _ every time the conservative say, you will raise taxes of this, of course we won't. — will raise taxes of this, of course we won't, and that's a record and in the next _ we won't, and that's a record and in the next couple of years you are going _ the next couple of years you are going to — the next couple of years you are going to be putting that labour ministers, i'm sure, and pointing at what— ministers, i'm sure, and pointing at what they— ministers, i'm sure, and pointing at what they said in the campaign. they are restricting their ability to govern— are restricting their ability to govern and i think that's going to be a problem. | govern and i think that's going to be a problem-— be a problem. i think they are because they _ be a problem. i think they are because they know _ be a problem. i think they are because they know people - be a problem. i think they are i because they know people are be a problem. i think they are - because they know people are worried about the money they have got in their pocket. they know they are worried and they know they need to reassure them, but i think they will have every intention of keeping those promises, like we did in 1997, when it was very difficult to stick to the tory spending limits, which had put into the government programme cuts doctor had put into the government programme cuts doctor come on, for it. in

programme cuts doctor come on, for it. |n1997, _ programme cuts doctor come on, for it. |n1997, ken — programme cuts doctor come on, for it. in 1997, ken clarke _ programme cuts doctor come on, for it. in 1997, ken clarke agreed - programme cuts doctor come on, for it. in 1997, ken clarke agreed a - it. in 1997, ken clarke agreed a gold _ it. in 1997, ken clarke agreed a gold and — it. in 1997, ken clarke agreed a gold and you had an easy time in that parliament. this is not a god and the _ that parliament. this is not a god and the comic strip it's not the same — and the comic strip it's not the same. �* , ., ., ., same. but the situation for the ublic, it same. but the situation for the public. it is _ same. but the situation for the public, it is worse _ same. but the situation for the public, it is worse but, - same. but the situation for the public, it is worse but, by- same. but the situation for the public, it is worse but, by the i same. but the situation for the - public, it is worse but, by the same token, it's worse for individual families at the moment and therefore they need to be reassured that they are not going to pay more in tax. north the tories nor labour have cottohed — north the tories nor labour have cottoned on to the fact that the public— cottoned on to the fact that the public have not reacted of the state in the _ public have not reacted of the state in the way — public have not reacted of the state in the way you are both imagining that they— in the way you are both imagining that they are doing. all the polling evidence _ that they are doing. all the polling evidence suggests the public are more _ evidence suggests the public are more concerned about the state of the health— more concerned about the state of the health service and public services _ the health service and public services than the level of taxation and frankly, for the conservatives, they would — and frankly, for the conservatives, they would be better spending the mohey_ they would be better spending the mohey oh — they would be better spending the money on increasing the amount of mohey oh _ money on increasing the amount of money on the health service they spent _ money on the health service they spent on tax cuts and in the junior doctors _ spent on tax cuts and in the junior doctors track and cutting waiting times— doctors track and cutting waiting times down because it looks as though. — times down because it looks as though, untilthat times down because it looks as though, until that problem times down because it looks as though, untilthat problem is

times down because it looks as though, until that problem is saved, the public— though, until that problem is saved, the public priority lies there. rachet— the public priority lies there. rachel reeves believes the way we are suggesting to deal with the economy is best for the economy. dare economy is best for the economy. are ou tellin: economy is best for the economy. are you telling me you propose, if the conservatives do not reduce national ihsurahce _ conservatives do not reduce national insurance by zip conservatives do not reduce national insurance by tip in the course of the last insurance by 4p in the course of the last six— insurance by tip in the course of the last six months, are you telling me in this— last six months, are you telling me in this campaign labour would be campaigning fora 4p in this campaign labour would be campaigning for a lip cut in national ihsurahce? — campaigning for a lip cut in national insurance? ., , campaigning for a lip cut in national insurance? .,, .. �* campaigning for a lip cut in national insurance? .,, �* campaigning for a lip cut in national insurance? �* ., insurance? crop i can't say that hypothetically _ insurance? crop i can't say that hypothetically but _ insurance? crop i can't say that hypothetically but i _ insurance? crop i can't say that hypothetically but i would - insurance? crop i can't say that hypothetically but i would say l insurance? crop i can't say that - hypothetically but i would say there are two reasons why rachel reeves has done what she's done, one is to reassure the public and the other is because that's how she thinks the economy should be managed. you might disagree but that's the view she put forward and i think the public knows the finances have been a problem and they are making a judgment about rachel reeves that she's been fiscally very prudent and she will carry on being like that. with the proceeds of growth she expects to achieve, if you have stability,

which we haven't had, if you have reform and you have investment, we will have economic growth. let harriet finish. for _ will have economic growth. let harriet finish. for two - will have economic growth. let harriet finish. for two years, i will have economic growth. let| harriet finish. for two years, we had to stick _ harriet finish. for two years, we had to stick to _ harriet finish. for two years, we had to stick to low _ harriet finish. for two years, we had to stick to low increases - harriet finish. for two years, we had to stick to low increases in l had to stick to low increases in taxes and cuts in public spending in 1997. that was painful. it was painful then for us. we felt we needed to do it. and then we put things on a better trajectory afterwards to the i things on a better tra'ectory afterwards to the_ afterwards to the i think it's extraordinary _ afterwards to the i think it's extraordinary you _ afterwards to the i think it's extraordinary you are - afterwards to the i think it's - extraordinary you are comparing the economy— extraordinary you are comparing the economy irr— extraordinary you are comparing the economy in 97 to now. it's a different— economy in 97 to now. it's a different ball game.- economy in 97 to now. it's a different ball game. don't put words in my mouth- _ different ball game. don't put words in my mouth- i— different ball game. don't put words in my mouth. i am _ different ball game. don't put words in my mouth. i am saying _ different ball game. don't put words in my mouth. i am saying there - different ball game. don't put words in my mouth. i am saying there is i different ball game. don't put words in my mouth. i am saying there is al in my mouth. i am saying there is a political view about peoples concerns and a sense of how you run the economy prudently. to concerns and a sense of how you run the economy prudently.— concerns and a sense of how you run the economy prudently. to finish the sentence, the economy prudently. to finish the sentence. i — the economy prudently. to finish the sentence, i think— the economy prudently. to finish the sentence, i think you _ the economy prudently. to finish the sentence, i think you are _ the economy prudently. to finish the sentence, i think you are giving - the economy prudently. to finish the sentence, i think you are giving the i sentence, i think you are giving the labour— sentence, i think you are giving the labour party way too much credit for the they— labour party way too much credit for the they appear to me to be a party desperate _ the they appear to me to be a party desperate to get over the line at ten o'clock on thursday night and actually _ ten o'clock on thursday night and actually has not got any fresh ideas