important to understand the shift i have found compared to 2019, because actually the algorithms and the way the platforms work are quite different because tiktok exists and tiktok has fundamentally changed and reshaped the way the other sites work, whether x or instagram, and that means we are often served up stuff recommended to us from people we don't know and that aren't necessarily official so one official profiles can have a pretty decent influence and sometimes that is a good thing and means people can voice their opinions and say what they are thinking but the downside of some of the misleading and false stuff we are seeing. 0ne network of accounts are investigated, a left—leaning network, where sharing doctored clips and false clips of politicians saying stuff they never said and then the comments of a double down and say i was there and it really happened and that has reared its head today. another clip got pretty decent traction about wes

streeting falsely suggesting he said stuff about the war in gaza that never happened in the comments are flooded with people saying i was there and it happened but also actual voters who are saying, i am confused what is going on. it is worth saying this hasn't been the tidal wave of deep fakes that people thought, but there have been examples like that, attempts to throw or that people think are funny but that can actually be quite convincing and cause problems. it is worth saying that x have labelled that post now and when i first investigated they took action and remove some profiles. eta? investigated they took action and remove some profiles.— investigated they took action and remove some profiles. stay on the anel, we remove some profiles. stay on the panel. we will— remove some profiles. stay on the panel, we will come _ remove some profiles. stay on the panel, we will come back - remove some profiles. stay on the panel, we will come back to - remove some profiles. stay on the panel, we will come back to you i remove some profiles. stay on the | panel, we will come back to you on the second. enough about ads and polls — what we're all waiting for is the exit poll. earlier i spoke to laura kuenssberg in the bbc�*s election hub — she gave us a sneak preview of what we can expect tomorrow night. just huge and bewildering. it's amazing. and then at 10:00, the exit poll drops. and that's the exit poll

that we've done in conjunction with our colleagues at sky and itv. and we've been in about 20,000 places. 20,000 people will have helped out during the day, telling pollsters how they voted. all of that gets put into a giant calculator with professor sir john curtice's giant brain. and then at 10:00, we are legally allowed to reveal the results of the exit poll. that in and of itself is a moment of history, because exit polls are rarely wrong, and especially if you think about the context of this election like it's a weird one. you know, i've not covered an election like this when everybody in the political parties is so sure of the eventual broad outcome, like no one's sure of the specific outcome. and when you talk to the parties privately, like they say, oh my god, there's this huge range of possibilities. but the broad outcome is really clear from all the polling and all the conversations and all the things that people working in politics believe. so it's a funny one in that sense, but the range of outcome is absolutely enormous. and all the counts come in here. it's an incredible, just technical operation. you know, these guys are going to be working far harder than me and clive in the studio because we've got counts.

i think more than 600 of them were at nearly every count around the country. so all of the information will be coming in here live. and then we've got to decide what to go to when, what's important. so this is the hard data, and we start to see if the exit poll, how accurate it is. once we start getting a bit deeper into the night, kind of 1:00 in the morning, we start to see some scottish results. and then at 2:00 you start to get a much more rapid pace. that's really when you can see with real results. if the overall predictions of the exit poll were pointing in the right direction, and then you get to this sort of bit between about three and four in the morning, wherejust result after result after result, after you get this sort of massive rush, really in the middle of the night when the real results come in thick and fast. but of course, there's also the task of looking out for seats that are the ones which classically show us the direction of travel. so whether or not that is swindon south, whether or not that is, you know, the old favourite

of harlow or nuneaton, real election nerds know the names of these seats, the ones that swing with the overall trend. so we'll be looking out for those. but there are other really important headlines, if you like, that haven't been written yet that we'll find out about. so will reform manage to take seats, particularly nigel farage in clacton? will the snp really get hammered in scotland, or actually, might they manage to hang on to being the biggest party in scotland 7 so there are lots of sort of individual headlines. but the overall big picture is of course what matters most. and when does the big call get made? it's really simple. when a party hits 326 seats, that means they've got a majority. that means that they're going to run the country. now, that probably might be at about 3:00 or 11:00, but i think the result�*s going to be very clear before then. as the polls close at 10pm tomorrow night, the exit poll will be released.

let's just have a look at some of those points in more detail. this is based on interviews conducted with voters at more than 130 polling stations — though which ones is a closely—guarded secret! in 2019, it correctly predicted the number of mps each of the parties would get to within a few seats. but in 2015 it predicted a hung parliament — instead of the small tory majority we actually saw. between 11pm and 1am we will see the first dozen or so constituencies declare. houghton and sunderland south, in the north east, is usually among the first, and should have a result around 11.45pm. if the polls are right, this is a likely labour hold — but will we see a big swing to the party? research taking into account new constituency boundaries has found labour need a 12.7 percentage point swing just to get an overall majority of one. so how will the result in this seat compare to that figure? however, polling suggests labour will have larger swings in seats it doesn't already hold, so likely more useful in working out how the evening will play out

will come at around a quarter past midnight, when essex seat basildon and billericay declares. this is being contested by the conservative chairman, and labour would need to overturn a majority of over 20,000 to win the seat, meaning a swing of more than 22.14%. if that happens, and that swing was repeated in every seat, it would mean a historic landslide where labour take a95 seats and the tories just 7a — a similar scale landslide to the result in1931. but of course, swings are never universal, and there aren'tjust two parties involved in this election. for example, in the south west, the liberal democrats are pushing to take the conservative—held seat of torbay. they need a swing of more than 17% to do this, and taking it when the result comes around 2am would mean they'll likely take many others across the south west and south east. when we know the final result will depend on how big the margin of victory is, but usually all seats are declared by sam.

and a full list of candidates in all these seats is available on the bbc website. back to the panel in a minute. let's take a quick look at a few of the stories on the front pages. quite interesting, those front pages, with some endorsements in those front pages, most notably from the sun newspaper, which has given a sort of endorsement, time for a new manager, but not in terms of the football. and then a variety of expected endorsements from the various papers, but the time is not endorsing labour and its leader. as a former news international executive, what do you make of the sun's sort of endorsement? the son alwa s sun's sort of endorsement? the son always wants _ sun's sort of endorsement? the son always wants to _ sun's sort of endorsement? the son always wants to be _ sun's sort of endorsement? the son always wants to be an _ sun's sort of endorsement? the son always wants to be an traditionally l

always wants to be an traditionally has been on the side of the winner so it is almost that simple. in the past people thought the sun determines which side was the winner but in fact it has been who follows, who leads for a while. 0n but in fact it has been who follows, who leads for a while. on this occasion clearly is one and i dare say my friends on the sun ball have to have swallowed quite hard to say it is time for change because they don't feel it so much but they obviously feel it out there and they don't want to be out of sync with their readers. find don't want to be out of sync with their readers.— don't want to be out of sync with their readers._ it j don't want to be out of sync with - their readers._ it has their readers. and the times? it has their readers. and the times? it has the freedom — their readers. and the times? it has the freedom to _ their readers. and the times? it has the freedom to be _ their readers. and the times? it has the freedom to be what _ their readers. and the times? it has the freedom to be what it _ their readers. and the times? it has the freedom to be what it is - their readers. and the times? it has the freedom to be what it is and - the freedom to be what it is and post a brexit, it was a cheerleader for it. in my view the best paper there is there. it is probably where i am at. i don't think keir starmer, whether you vote for him or not, has done what it takes to deserve the skill of victory he is heading for. we have heard that before. i guess you're going to argue it is tiktok

what won it rather than the sun? the media has traditionally played this role in _ media has traditionally played this role in reflecting _ media has traditionally played this role in reflecting the _ media has traditionally played this role in reflecting the public- role in reflecting the public narrative _ role in reflecting the public narrative and _ role in reflecting the public narrative and pushing - role in reflecting the public- narrative and pushing positions. now when _ narrative and pushing positions. now when i _ narrative and pushing positions. now when i look_ narrative and pushing positions. now when i look at — narrative and pushing positions. now when i look at the _ narrative and pushing positions. now when i look at the election _ when i look at the election unfolding _ when i look at the election unfolding on _ when i look at the election unfolding on all— when i look at the election unfolding on all these - when i look at the election. unfolding on all these many when i look at the election - unfolding on all these many phones in the _ unfolding on all these many phones in the battle — unfolding on all these many phones in the battle being _ unfolding on all these many phones in the battle being fought _ unfolding on all these many phones in the battle being fought on - unfolding on all these many phones in the battle being fought on sociall in the battle being fought on social media _ in the battle being fought on social media i— in the battle being fought on social media i think— in the battle being fought on social media i think it— in the battle being fought on social media i think it is— in the battle being fought on social media i think it is fair— in the battle being fought on social media i think it is fair to _ in the battle being fought on social media i think it is fair to say- in the battle being fought on social media i think it is fair to say it- media i think it is fair to say it does — media i think it is fair to say it does have _ media i think it is fair to say it does have a _ media i think it is fair to say it does have a really— media i think it is fair to say it does have a really significantl does have a really significant impact — does have a really significant impact on _ does have a really significant impact on certain— does have a really significant impact on certain people. . does have a really significant - impact on certain people. defining that impact— impact on certain people. defining that impact is— impact on certain people. defining that impact is difficult— impact on certain people. defining that impact is difficult and - impact on certain people. defining that impact is difficult and a - impact on certain people. defining that impact is difficult and a lot. that impact is difficult and a lot of hit _ that impact is difficult and a lot of hit is — that impact is difficult and a lot of bit is about _ that impact is difficult and a lot of bit is about adverts - that impact is difficult and a lot of bit is about adverts in - of bit is about adverts in particular— of bit is about adverts in particular post - of bit is about adverts in particular post shaping i of bit is about adverts in - particular post shaping narratives around _ particular post shaping narratives around particular— particular post shaping narratives around particular candidates - particular post shaping narratives around particular candidates and i around particular candidates and making — around particular candidates and making peopie _ around particular candidates and making people aware _ around particular candidates and making people aware of - around particular candidates and making people aware of stuff. around particular candidates and i making people aware of stuff they otherwise — making people aware of stuff they otherwise wouldn't _ making people aware of stuff they otherwise wouldn't have - making people aware of stuff they otherwise wouldn't have sought. making people aware of stuff they. otherwise wouldn't have sought out but rather _ otherwise wouldn't have sought out but rather it — otherwise wouldn't have sought out but rather it is— otherwise wouldn't have sought out but rather it is pushed _ otherwise wouldn't have sought out but rather it is pushed to _ otherwise wouldn't have sought out but rather it is pushed to them - otherwise wouldn't have sought out but rather it is pushed to them so l otherwise wouldn't have sought out but rather it is pushed to them so i| but rather it is pushed to them so i think— but rather it is pushed to them so i think particularly— but rather it is pushed to them so i think particularly going _ but rather it is pushed to them so i think particularly going into - think particularly going into tomorrow. _ think particularly going into tomorrow. i— think particularly going into tomorrow, i look— think particularly going into tomorrow, i look at - think particularly going into tomorrow, i look at all - think particularly going into tomorrow, i look at all the i think particularly going into - tomorrow, i look at all the front pages _ tomorrow, i look at all the front pages and — tomorrow, i look at all the front pages and think, _ tomorrow, i look at all the front pages and think, one _ tomorrow, i look at all the front pages and think, one of- tomorrow, i look at all the front pages and think, one of the - tomorrow, i look at all the front. pages and think, one of the things peopie _ pages and think, one of the things peopie need — pages and think, one of the things peopie need to _ pages and think, one of the things people need to be _ pages and think, one of the things people need to be most _ pages and think, one of the things people need to be most savvy - pages and think, one of the things people need to be most savvy to l pages and think, one of the thingsl people need to be most savvy to as the stuff _ people need to be most savvy to as the stuff they— people need to be most savvy to as the stuff they are _ people need to be most savvy to as the stuff they are being _ people need to be most savvy to as the stuff they are being pushed, . people need to be most savvy to as the stuff they are being pushed, to| the stuff they are being pushed, to what extent— the stuff they are being pushed, to what extent it _ the stuff they are being pushed, to what extent it is _ the stuff they are being pushed, to what extent it is helpful— the stuff they are being pushed, to what extent it is helpful and - the stuff they are being pushed, to what extent it is helpful and givesl what extent it is helpful and gives new information _ what extent it is helpful and gives new information about _ what extent it is helpful and gives new information about what - what extent it is helpful and gives new information about what theyl new information about what they might _ new information about what they might want — new information about what they might want to _ new information about what they might want to vote _ new information about what they might want to vote for, - new information about what they might want to vote for, but - new information about what they might want to vote for, but alsol might want to vote for, but also 'ust might want to vote for, but also just be — might want to vote for, but also just be so— might want to vote for, but also just be so aware _ might want to vote for, but also just be so aware of— might want to vote for, but also just be so aware of stuff- might want to vote for, but also just be so aware of stuff you're i just be so aware of stuff you're being _ just be so aware of stuff you're being pushed _ just be so aware of stuff you're being pushed that _ just be so aware of stuff you're being pushed that might- just be so aware of stuff you're being pushed that might be - being pushed that might be misleading _ being pushed that might be misleading or— being pushed that might be misleading or effect, - being pushed that might be misleading or effect, that. being pushed that might be| misleading or effect, that is being pushed that might be - misleading or effect, that is people seeing _ misleading or effect, that is people seeing it— misleading or effect, that is people seeing it as — misleading or effect, that is people seeing it as fair— misleading or effect, that is people seeing it as fair game _ misleading or effect, that is people seeing it as fair game to _ misleading or effect, that is people seeing it as fair game to use - seeing it as fair game to use whatever— seeing it as fair game to use whatever tactics— seeing it as fair game to use whatever tactics to - seeing it as fair game to use

whatever tactics to target i seeing it as fair game to use i whatever tactics to target and seeing it as fair game to use - whatever tactics to target and reach you because — whatever tactics to target and reach you because newspapers _ whatever tactics to target and reach you because newspapers and - whatever tactics to target and reach you because newspapers and the i whatever tactics to target and reach - you because newspapers and the media are ultimately— you because newspapers and the media are ultimately regulated _ you because newspapers and the media are ultimately regulated but _ you because newspapers and the media are ultimately regulated but not - are ultimately regulated but not quite _ are ultimately regulated but not quite the — are ultimately regulated but not quite the same _ are ultimately regulated but not quite the same case _ are ultimately regulated but not quite the same case on - are ultimately regulated but not quite the same case on social. are ultimately regulated but not - quite the same case on social media, although— quite the same case on social media, although these — quite the same case on social media, although these sites _ quite the same case on social media, although these sites will— quite the same case on social media, although these sites will say- quite the same case on social media, although these sites will say they - although these sites will say they have invested _ although these sites will say they have invested in _ although these sites will say they have invested in that. _ although these sites will say they have invested in that.— although these sites will say they have invested in that. you're trying to shine a light _ have invested in that. you're trying to shine a light on _ have invested in that. you're trying to shine a light on this _ have invested in that. you're trying to shine a light on this collection i to shine a light on this collection of phones. take us back to 2010, you're the chief of staff of the then chancellor of the exchequer, alistair darling, and you are in there and think you are probably going to lose. what is that like? i will not give away any state secrets lry will not give away any state secrets by saying _ will not give away any state secrets by saying we were not convinced we were going — by saying we were not convinced we were going to win a fourth term after— were going to win a fourth term after the — were going to win a fourth term after the major recession and the prime _ after the major recession and the prime minister being caught with a hot mic— prime minister being caught with a hot mic calling voters bigots, that was not _ hot mic calling voters bigots, that was not a — hot mic calling voters bigots, that was not a great moment. what surprised — was not a great moment. what surprised us on the night wasn't that we — surprised us on the night wasn't that we lost but that the conservatives didn't actually win and we — conservatives didn't actually win and we had the hung parliament which led to— and we had the hung parliament which led to the _ and we had the hung parliament which led to the really weird five days where — led to the really weird five days where we — led to the really weird five days where we didn't quite have a government. that very strange about where _ government. that very strange about where he _ government. that very strange about where he was sort of being the chancellor despite having clearly lost the — chancellor despite having clearly lost the election but we didn't have

a new— lost the election but we didn't have a new chancellor. is lost the election but we didn't have a new chancellor.— a new chancellor. is that possible? are ou a new chancellor. is that possible? are you waiting _ a new chancellor. is that possible? are you waiting for _ a new chancellor. is that possible? are you waiting for that _ a new chancellor. is that possible? are you waiting for that moment? | a new chancellor. is that possible? | are you waiting for that moment? i don't think that is going to happen over the next few days. what is shocking, that is a very rare occurrence. 0ne shocking, that is a very rare occurrence. one minute you have all the power and the necks of those gone, boom. the power and the necks of those gone. boom-— the power and the necks of those gone, boom. the power and the necks of those one, boom. ~ ., ., ., ., ., ., gone, boom. what a note to leave on. it is a gone, boom. what a note to leave on. it is a brutal — gone, boom. what a note to leave on. it is a brutal business _ gone, boom. what a note to leave on. it is a brutal business but _ gone, boom. what a note to leave on. it is a brutal business but there - it is a brutal business but there you go. half the world is voting this year? but there are some uniquely british traditions before we across the bbc sign off on talking politics at least for the next 23 hours or so. good luck to the parents of primary school kids who have a day off. to the civil servants and volunteers helping with the counts. don't forget your pic of your dog at the ballot box. definitely don't forget your id. we'll report the results across the bbc with the exit poll from 9.55 on bbc one. and victoria is back with a newsnight election verdict special on friday.now, it's over to you. good night.

hello, i'm martine croxall in eight hours from now, polling stations will open and people will be able to have their say about who runs the country. all the political parties have spent a final day out on the campaign trail, pushing for votes. 0ur political editor chris mason reports. six weeks ago, it was a bit damp. so this is it — a general election is on. if you want change, you have to vote for it. here they are. funny old business, following the prime minister on the campaign trail. are you changing many minds? well, look, chris, you can see we're having a conversation here. would you describe yourself as a socialist? look, yes, iwould. fireworks, smiles, promises, questions and one more day of persuasion.

rishi sunak was at school in romsey, in hampshire, today. hi, girls, how are you? hello. how is he, i wonder, after hearing a cabinet colleague on radio 4 this morning pretty much concede defeat? where the polls are at the moment means that tomorrow is likely to see the largest labour landslide majority. the largest majority that this country has ever seen. what therefore matters now is what kind of opposition do we have? tonight, i want you to hear the final words the two men who want to govern for the next five years said on the campaign trail. first, the prime minister. i say it again — we have 24 hours left. we do not surrender to labour. we will fight for every vote. we will fight for our values and we will fight for our vision of britain. his wife, then his mum and dad joined him on stage, a sense of a resigned pride in the air. keir starmer!

the labour leader, was in east kilbride, south of glasgow, this afternoon. he'd been near whitland in carmarthenshire this morning. tonight, he flew to redditch in the west midlands. note the exuberance here as you listen to sir keir starmer�*s final pitch. imagine a britain moving forward together with a labour government. that is what we're fighting for. let's continue that fight. if you want change, you have to vote for it. vote labour tomorrow! cheering. the scottish national party leader, john swinney, has been toasting a marshmallow next to a big plastic frog in castlemilk in glasgow today, and he had a fluorescent jacket moment too. ithe election is well and truly over| and done with south of the border, i and the issue for scotland is — i who's going to protect scotland's interests in the next - westminster parliament? and people know they can rely on the snp to do exactly that. j well, my bus to work didn't get this welcome this morning, but sir ed davey�*s did

from liberal democrat activists in harpenden in hertfordshire this afternoon. tomorrow, we have the chance to win the change our country desperately needs. yellow bus in, pink car out. zany capers over and out for the lib dems. nigel farage, from reform uk, has been at a boxing club and was asked how he thought his party would do. it's very tough to call what's going to happen. the thing we can't measure and the polls can't measure is the youth vote. you know, are all these people online, the millions of them who've have been very supportive, are they actually going to go and vote? i don't know. the green party of england and wales is hoping it's heading towards gains. the level of support has been phenomenal. i've been stopped in the street repeatedly by people asking for a selfie or even for a hug. it's my pleasure to be here seeing you off. i and the leader of plaid cymru, which would like to see an independent wales, did a pep talk in a drizzly car park near ammanford.

if it wasn't for plaid cymru - and those using the platforms that we have, there wouldn't have been a mention of wales - during this campaign - at all and people can see that. and here's a mention of northern ireland, too, where a panoply of parties contest seats in races that feel very different from elsewhere in the uk. so, this is it. it's over to you to sketch how this place will look, feel, sound and decide for the next five years to come and, ultimately, who will live here. chris mason, bbc news, westminster. we've been looking at lots of polls as part of our coverage, and we have our final one for you. as you can see, there has been a small but noticeable narrowing in the polls. both leading parties have seen their average rating fall but labour's has dropped a bit more than the conservatives'. reform uk remains in third place with support seeming to have stalled.

support for the liberal democrats has increased, and the greens, snp and plaid cymru have been pretty stable throughout. let's take a look at the front pages of tomorrow's papers. in a major u—turn, the sun switches sides and backs the labour party— calling time for a "new manager". the financial times reports the tories are bracing for a bleak night — pointing to a major poll which predicts a landslide win for labour. the frontpage of the times also headlines the latest polling — reporting that labour will achieve the 'biggest majority since 1832'. its even worse for the tories in the independent — which suggests the party will lose all but 82 seats. the daily express describesjuly the fourth as a 'day of reckoning' — still urging its readers to 'vote tory�* but admitting it understands their frustrations. and the daily mail warns against protest votes for reform — and has a guide to voting tactically to try and prevent a labour 'super majority'.

live to westminster now — and our political correspondent, damian grammaticas. damian, first of all, talk to us about what circular cut * mart was sent journalist as about what circular cut * mart was sentjournalist as he was travelling around the country tonight. goad around the country tonight. good evenin: , around the country tonight. good evening. this _ around the country tonight. good evening, this is _ around the country tonight. good evening, this is interesting. - around the country tonight. (limp. evening, this is interesting. you heard in chris was michael report what one of rishi sunak�*s closest aides, closest ministers, was seen on the radio this morning, mel stride, who was seen that is all but over now. so pretty gloomy stuff, and contrast that by the end of the day, what you had was keir starmer on a plane, flying back from scotland to england, talking to journalists as leaders do as they are going around, there is a little huddle under plan, and he kind of loosened up a little bit. he has fought this very sort of discipline campaign. many would say it does not

actually been particularly inspiring, but it has been on message, sticking to his message, saying take nothing for granted, it is all about service, and wanted to chance to serve the country, and for a brief moment on the plane, he talked a little bit about what might happen if the labour party were to emerge victorious. he said there have been preparation going on for quite a long time. he said" are ready for what comes next". he said that he had been talking to all the senior members of his team, telling them that they needed to be in a position, he said, to be able to move immediately the minutes if they were to win the election. and he said that because of that, i don't want you making any phone calls that you could had six months before, and i'm confident we are now in this position, we would be ready. he spoke about how it's been frustrating for his gaze in opposition, sojust

frustrating for his gaze in opposition, so just a frustrating for his gaze in opposition, sojust a glimmer there, i think, from keir starmer we hadn't seen before. he said that he felt he had run a pretty good campaign, but he didn't want to tempt fate at all. but a different sense you get from the two campaigns, some gloom in the conservative side, although rishi sunak was out again saying nothing is a done deal, he's fighting until the end, it comes onto the boats are cast, that is what mattered, nothing is done onto the votes are cast, but it sounded like he was in a trances, trying to fight off what was coming. 0n the other hand, you have the labour leader sounding is loaded more relaxed and it is a bit more sort of unbuttons and he has through the campaign. 50 sort of unbuttons and he has through the campaign-— the campaign. so polling stations oen in the campaign. so polling stations open injust— the campaign. so polling stations open in just under— the campaign. so polling stations open in just under eight - the campaign. so polling stations open in just under eight hours. i the campaign. so polling stations i open in just under eight hours. tell open injust under eight hours. tell us what we would know this time tomorrow night? br; us what we would know this time tomorrow night?— tomorrow night? by this time tomorrow _ tomorrow night? by this time tomorrow night, _ tomorrow night? by this time tomorrow night, we - tomorrow night? by this time tomorrow night, we would've| tomorrow night? by this time - tomorrow night, we would've had the exit poll, so that has in recent

years been pretty accurate. so at ten p:m., when polls close, we will get that, that will be on the bbc and other outlets to, and if you see that, you will have a pretty good idea, the margin of error —— the margin of error and that is pretty good. but in this election there are big unknowns. there is the impact of reformuk, you heard the leader there in chris's report. the polls are predicting or suggesting, rather, we should say, suggesting a big labour victory, and many people look at those and wonder, can that really be come to pass? that exit point will give an indication, or it might give an indication of the opposite, in which case everyone would wonder what is going on and what the different counts for the difference between the two. and then roughly around this time, we would be looking for those early results that

would be starting to, the first ones don't probably give a good indication of how things might regress through the rest of the night and into friday, but they give an indication underneath because it tends to be some labour leniency stay coming early, but what is bubbling away underneath, you know, which way the currents are going. that is what we will be looking at. 0ften that is what we will be looking at. often a race between some cons to be the first to return. thank you, damien,. now it's time for this special election edition of newscast... it's adam in the newscast studio. and then... laura in the newscast studio with you. and paddy in the newscast studio opposite the both of you. yes, in the side—eye chair. yeah, i call this the side—eye chair because i feel if i sit in this seat and i'm speaking to that person on my right, i have to sort of do a bit of side—eye. well, ifeel like i'm getting a job interview, so be kind.

and we're waiting for chris mason to appear. and i think he's going to appear in a screen to my left, but, um, we've sort of lost track of him. he is at westminster, though, so he's not like in some random car park in a marginal seat. so he should be quite easy to get hold of at some point. so, do you know what's interesting? so i've been doing this six—hour—long newscast like live marathon on bbc sounds today. and you realise like all the timelines have diverged. so for people like mel stride, the work and pensions secretary, who will listen to in a second, he's basically saying the election's over. then we broadcasters go, it's the last day of campaigning because on polling day itself, we're banned by law from saying anything. but then you speak to the actual candidates and the activists and they're like, "hang on, we're about to pull a 37—hour shift getting people to go to the polls." and you're like, it's all sort of... everyone sort of stops the election at a different time. yes, i mean, that's a fancy way of putting it. and it's interesting — there are three of these parallel universes going on, of course. um, and all of them are individually true. right? so if you are a senior

politician in any party like mel stride, you look at the big picture and you think, yes, the broad shape of what is going to happen appears to be crystal clear, short of some sort of asteroid landing from earth and something very bizarre happening. then you do have, absolutely, the candidates are about to put in an absolutely massive shift because, yes, every vote counts. sometimes parliamentary majorities have been won byjust two votes. so if you didn't knock on as many doors and then you lose by two, or you will be at hacked off that you went off for a cup of tea at 9:1i5 instead of carrying on... yeah. but you're right, there is then, quite rightly, this legal requirement that as soon as the ballot boxes are open tomorrow morning, we all shut up. but it's curious, though, in a way, this campaign, because i cannot remember a senior politician on the morning of it saying publicly, basically, it's over. privately, sure — that happens in campaigns. always, people go, "oh, we think it's probably going to happen this way." but for senior politicians to overtly and openly say what's going to happen, i think is extraordinary. can i raise my finger like this? you just have. for telling us off?

no, but it looked like i was pointing at you, which would be very rude. rude. so instead i'm going to point it. can i take your mel stride and raise you suella braverman? yeah. so you had mel stride on the radio saying it's going to be a massive labour landslide. well, actually, should we listen? because we've, actually, we've got it from the radio archives from like ten hours ago. so let's have a little listen to what mel stride actually said. and then you can pick up with your suella point. i totally accept that, _ where the polls are at the moment, means that tomorrow is likely to see the largest labour landslide - majority, the largest majority. that this country has ever seen — much bigger than 1997, - bigger even than the national government in 1931. what, therefore, matters now is what kind of opposition do i we have, what kind of ability to scrutinise government - is there within parliament? so just to say that mel stride did not say that when the campaign started, he said there was an election, there was everything to play for. numberone. number two, i wasjust going to interject to say suella braverman took to the daily telegraph

to say it's over. so it's two bookends of tory greatness. grand de—dum. mhm. what mel stride does not know though — and he was saying sort of pretty categorically in a very public way — he doesn't know that it's going to be the biggest majority since time began. he doesn't know that at all. and if you talk to the parties privately, what they still will always say is, look, the range of outcomes is still very, very great. so on newscast, we are not saying this is what is going to happen, but it is notable that a cabinet minister has said this is what's going to happen. and a cynic might wonder slightly if it was in part designed to say to people, "oh, well, you don't actually need to go out and bother voting because this is what's going to happen anyway." and that's labour's interpretation of it. publicly, they claim it's voter suppression, which is a very strong charge to make. yeah. chris mason has materialised. hello! hello, gang, hello. sorry, i got a little waylaid - in conversation with the brilliant allan little, and so we ended

up shooting the breeze - in the corridor and i lost track of time. i so sorry. was he writing a classic allan little sort of poem about this great moment in our island story, which he specialises in? i think that's kind of the, kind of the thrust of it. l i think that is kind of the thrust of it. the last time i caught up with alan, i discovered he ended _ up with a parking ticket, we talked for so long. i so, um, anyway, at least this time he should be spared that. - but yeah, sorry. newscasters are going to give you a ticket for you. just said you weren't off late because you were getting some story. you were just having a gossip with one of our colleagues. well, you know... goodness! we're all human, - aren't we, you know. blimey, well, i know this comes first. chris, we'rejust, uh, discussing whether it's done and dusted and over or not and why somebody might say it is, but other people might say it's not and, blah. well, my conversation - with allan little, the election. yeah. how do we know he's not still there with you? so, you know, i'd just put my- headphones on and it was hearing the tail end of what i laura was saying that, you know, this is parties who are still in kind - of campaigning mode, aren't they?

i yes, of course they are reactingl to the, the backdrop, the weather makers that are the opinion polls. of course they are. and they have their own private polling, their own returns- from the knocking on the doors and all that kind of stuff, - all of the data that they have, but they're also still trying - to shape the mood and shape the mood of those who might be tempted - to vote for them. so it's all part of the kind of psychology of the lasti day, isn't it? even though it is worth emphasising, it was still quite a thing to hear- from a cabinet minister on the radio the day before a general election. i but has mel stride made himself unpopular with conservative foot soldiers and conservative candidates and other, recently, conservative mps? i mean, when you speak- to conservatives, they depending on which ones you speak to, they have a range of people | who they might put up on their sort of league table of colleagues - to be unpopular with. i think, broadly speaking, _ given sort of mel stride's demeanour and usual careful selection of words —and indeed, you know, _ as he might see it, just- articulating out loud what some of the opinion polls might suggest could happen — as opposed to, -

as laura was saying, _ him saying that that will happen or is going to happen. yeah, you know, one or two might be sort| of mildly piqued, but in the grand scheme of things, when, - as paddy was mentioning, they are certainly some i of them, none too pleased - with suella braverman's contribution in the daily telegraph this morning. and then others, by the way, are i saying, look, let's be realistic. i in their view, they anticipate l defeat and so are anticipating what comes next and leadership races and all that kind of stuff _ if indeed the conservatives do lose. it kind of all gets swept up into that kind of noise, - plenty of which we've seen quite a lot of in the last _ in the last few weeks, going all the way back to grant shapps and that times radio interview when he first used that - phrase or that word, "supermajority". - so i've been spending some of my time telephoning, uh, people who are working for the parties today, and they're all working really hard. some of them sound really sad. some of them sound really tired.

some of them have children who've got a cold and they can't see them. and they're working really hard in a cause which they really believe in. because i know it's unpopular to say that, because we're meant to believe that they're all the same, so, you know, i don't. sorry, you know, write on twitter that i'm awful. but actually, these are people with a conscience who want to do well by our country, and they're working in a cause which they are completely and utterly believing in and feeling knackered. but their leaders have just told them is a waste of time. well, i mean... yeah, i mean, that's the thing i wonder about, actually, if you were a tory candidate and you've heard that from mel stride and you've read that from suella braverman this morning, you are going to feel a bit hacked off. and it's something we often say at the weekends. we often say on weekend newscasts because we're nice, right, they're actually politicians and political activists and those people who give up their time or sometimes choose less lucrative, easier careers to go into politics, which is a tough old game. and everybody i'd be talking to in the last few days have one thing in common — they're all absolutely shattered. whether they think that they're about to walk

into government, or whether they think they're packing