england are through to the final of the euros. will it provide a much—needed boost to the struggling pub industry? welcome to business today. i'm sally bundock. let's start in the uk, where, in just over an hour's time, we will get the latest economic growth figure for may. this following a washout in april, where unusually wet weather meant the economy failed to grow at all in april as shoppers put off and construction slowed down. it came after the fastest growth in two years from january to march, ending the recession from the final half of last year. but 0.7% growth is hardly anything, and reveals the challenge facing the new government as interest rates remain at multi—year highs. at the start of this week,

we heard from the new chancellor, rachel reeves, that economic growth is one of the government's top priorities, and any indication today that the economy is turning a corner will be crucial momentum for the new government plans to, as they put it, "rebuild britain". let's discuss this with hetal mehta, head of economic research at st james's place. do you think we will see growth today? will that be the number four, something upwards? that is the expectation, _ four, something upwards? twat is the expectation, what most market participants are expecting and i think even the poor weather in the previous month, it seems quite likely thatis month, it seems quite likely that is what we will see, 0.2%

increase would probably in line with what is expected, but what we can look forward to having that better pace of growth and a lot of people have written off the first quarter as a bit off the first quarter as a bit of a blip, but we need to see the fundamentals of the uk growth start to improve. coupled with optimism about a new government, of course it is talking big about its plans for the economy, for growth, for investment etc. we have the bank of england poised to cut interest rates. what is your outlook for economic growth for the uk for the rest of this year? the uk for the rest of this ear? ~ . , . year? we are expecting inaudible _ year? we are expecting inaudible growth. - year? we are expecting - inaudible growth. expecting to see a steady pace, something like i% for the year as a whole and that is very much what we describe as a soft landing or

goldilocks scenario, so growth roughly in line with its long—term average, inflation staying a bit above 2%, but much lower than it has been and thatis much lower than it has been and that is quite a good mix, especially for financial markets. we have a new government, still early days for policy. i think a lot of big measures of tax and spend will inevitably have to wait until later this year when we have the budget. we have talked a lot at stjames have the budget. we have talked a lot at st james place about how limited the fiscal wiggle room is and they will have to reassess what levers they can pull in terms of what taxes especially for big revenue generators are going to be silent unchanged to fund their spending priorities.— spending priorities. when do ou spending priorities. when do you think _ spending priorities. when do you think the _ spending priorities. when do you think the bank _ spending priorities. when do you think the bank of - spending priorities. when do | you think the bank of england will make the move and start to cut the cost of borrowing? the

inflation numberfor the inflation number for the services sector inflation numberfor the services sector is still quite high, uncomfortably high, for the central bank.— the central bank. yes. before the central bank. yes. before the election _ the central bank. yes. before the election the _ the central bank. yes. before the election the direction - the central bank. yes. before the election the direction of. the election the direction of travel was looking very much like august. we had a communications blackout almost from the bank and it did not feel like the minutes from the june meeting suggested that an august goat was still in place, but we heard from a chief economist yesterday who sounded cautious around wage inflation, services inflation still. i think it will be a finely balanced meeting in august, but we certainly expect at least one or two cuts over the course of the next few months if it is not august. of the next few months if it is not august-— of the next few months if it is not au~ust. . ~ . . ~ not august. hetal mehta, thank ou. one key aspect of the uk economy is foreign investment —

money flowing into the uk from overseas. the uk has the second—largest amount of foreign direct investment — or fdi — in the world after the us, the vast majority of which comes from europe and the americas. and a new report out today from ey shows that fdi levels increased last year, led by greater london, scotland and the west midlands. peter arnold is ey�*s uk chief economist. that sounds positive. talk us through how much fdi came through how much fdi came through last year and what was the attraction? figs through last year and what was the attraction?— the attraction? as you said, i think it was _ the attraction? as you said, i think it was reasonably - think it was reasonably positive last year for the uk. we saw an increase of 6% in fdi projects and as you pointed out some strong performances in london in particular, just under 360 project up from 300 a year before driven by a resurgence in tech investment

in london and we saw strong performances from scotland which increased its share again and the west midlands a bit of and the west midlands a bit of an outlier, had a strong performance with an investment increase of over inaudible %, off the back of the commonwealth games and using that to leverage investment into the region.— that to leverage investment into the region. what you have shown in your _ into the region. what you have shown in your report _ into the region. what you have shown in your report is - shown in your report is encouraging because one of the real concerns last year was the cancellation of the full run of h52, the cancellation of the full run of hs2, the train line, that was supposed to go from london to manchester but the government decided no, we cannot, it is not financially viable to go beyond birmingham and what that meant in terms of the signals to foreign investors of which are there were many on that project. and also other foreign investors who have chosen to investors who have chosen to invest in various things surrounding that project. there was worried this would put people off investing in the uk. yes. i think it would be fair

to say the situation has been mixed over the last couple of years. if you look at total investment into the uk as it stands, that is still below the high points of inaudible 2016, 2017 inaudible when the uk was a number one destination for investment across europe, so it figures last year were encouraging, a recovery but still lagging inaudible and hs2 and decisions around similar infrastructure projects illustrate the challenges uk has faced an international investors have faced around that level of certainty around big decisions, areas of policy, regulation that has been lacking in the last couple of years and we know planning in particular is the focus of new government and getting approvals for big infrastructure projects and housing developments is one of those areas investors site is one of the barriers to investing in the uk. peter

arnold from _ investing in the uk. peter arnold from ey, - investing in the uk. peter arnold from ey, thank- investing in the uk. peter. arnold from ey, thank you. to the us now, where it was yet another record close on the stock market. if we take a look at the numbers: the nasdaq and the s&p 500 rallied to record high closes, fuelled by gains in nvidia and other wall street tech heavyweights. this comes ahead of inflation data published later today just before the opening bell. for standard & poor's, it is the best performance it is seen in 2024. -- s&p. the best performance it is seen in 2024. —— s&p. they have been riding the way put in motion the night before in the united

states. plus, federal reserve chair jerome powell on wednesday stoked expectations for an interest rate cut in september. during the second day of questioning in congress, powell reiterated the bank will make interest rate decisions "when and as" they are needed. let's get more on this with fiona cincotta from city index. it seems there is no stopping the markets in the us. he. it seems there is no stopping the markets in the us. no, what a phenomenal— the markets in the us. no, what a phenomenal performance. - the markets in the us. no, what a phenomenal performance. it i a phenomenal performance. it isn'tjust this week. across the first quarter of the year, across... so far the second quarter what we have seen as well and heading into the third quarter, and might have been strong gains. a couple of factors which are supporting these gains — obviously we have ai trade which has been phenomenally strong with chipmakers such as nvidia, broader chipmakers as well

making strong gains and in addition to the ai stocks charging higher, you've also got this optimism surrounding the idea the federal reserve will start cutting interest rates soon. that is boosting technology stocks, high—growth stocks, the ones that tend to benefit from the prospect of a low interest rate environment. also we have the inflation data out today which will help everyone get a picture of what is going on in the us economy and what that means forjerome powell and his team as they decide when to start cutting. yes, a lot of intention —— attention on inflation data. expectations are for two coulta 3.1% and core inflation excluding more volatile items such as food and fuel, to a 3.4% but on a monthly basis that core inflation is expected

to increase 0.2% and that will be when, combined with last month �*s increase of 0.2%, the smallest two month growth we have seen since last summer, so if we see these figures or even cooler than expected inflation, that will rarely cement those expectations the federal reserve could start a cut interest rates in september. at the moment the market is pricing in a round of 70, 70 5% probability the fed will cut rates in the coming months. that is up from around 45% a month ago, so this week a data we have seen higher and payment, signs inflation is cooling and those comments from federal reserve chairjerome powell will help to fuel those expectations a cut is coming and soon. expectations a cut is coming and soon-— expectations a cut is coming and soon. ., ., ~ and soon. the owner, thank you. -- fiona- — staying in the us, and the biden administration

has announced new rules targeting firms from china and other countries that are routing shipments of steel and aluminium through mexico in a bid to evade tariffs. 0ur north america business correspondent erin delmore has all the details. back in may, president biden implemented higher tariffs on steel and aluminium. concerns have remained that the imports could get into the us duty—free through mexico, which has a special treaty relationship between the us and canada. but the us and mexico are taking joint steps to counteract this. mexico will require importers to supply more information about a product's country of origin, which need to be provided when the products are imported to the us. and under the plan, steel imports from mexico will still get hit with the us 25% tariff unless it is shown to have been melted and poured in canada. aluminium for mexico will still be subject

to the 10% tariff if they contain elements in china, russia, belarus or iran and they said in a joint statement that the new steps will strengthen steel and aluminium supply chains. there could also be an added benefit for president biden who has been a staunch opponent of the takeover of the storied american company us steel byjapan. news like this could help win the vote of the union united steel workers union and his re—election bid. let's get some of the day's other news now. microsoft has given up its board observer seat at 0pen—ai, amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny in europe and the us. the european commission previously said microsoft could face an antitrust investigation. similarly in the us, the federal trade commission has been conducting reviews of deals made by big technology firms and top ai companies.

microsoft's total investment to date into 0pen—ai stands at around $13 billion. regulators have approved the biggest overhaul of rules for london—listed companies in three decades as the uk attempts to revive its capital markets. the new listing rules will hand more power to company bosses to make decisions without shareholder votes and give companies more flexibility to adopt dual—class share structures. the new regime will come into force later this month. and still to come: three cheers for the three lions! england are through to the final of the euros. will it provide a much—needed boost to the struggling pub industry? around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news.

a jury in new york has found the wall street investor bill hwang guilty of fraud and market manipulation. three years ago, the collapse of his fund, archegos capital management, caused billions of dollars in losses for several major banks. prosecutors accused hwang

of lying to lenders by secretly amassing large stakes in a handful of media and technology firms, artificially driving up their share prices. let's get the latest on this with our business reporter mariko 0i. he is accused of falsely inflating a portfolio into $36 billion, a big, fat lie. bill hwangb had pleaded not guilty. —— bill hwang. when he couldn't repay those banks there was a mass sale of stocks that wiped out his personal fortune and his company collapsed, causing millions of doses in losses for banks including morgan stanley,

credit suisse and some had to take responsibility for doing business with them including pay cuts, demotion and some of them even lost theirjobs. there also question asked about why those big banks chose to do business with him because of his background because if you remember he was banned from the hong kong market in 2014 and also in 2012. he settled inside it trading charges in the us. bill hwang is due to be sentenced in late october. thanks, mariko 0i, with the details. nigeria is africa's economic powerhouse, so why are so many young people trying to leave? it's become so common, there's even a term for it — �*japa'. hannah gelbart, from the bbc�*s what in the world podcast, has been speaking to students in lagos about what japa means for them, and what it means for the country they're trying to leave behind. students here are facing a difficult choice. it can be summed up

in one word. it means to escape and increasingly it's become a shorthand for leaving nigeria altogether. if i say i want to �*japa', to live here and be not seen... disappear completely, entirely. even if i see the opportunity, i willjapa. idon't want to but the country is very tough right now- and for me to earn that it - will look like a have to leave. many people have spoken to here at the university are considering japa and last year nigeria's government issued a record number of passports and in a country with so many young professionals, it is no wonder there are so many other countries that are ready to give them a new home. among the most popular destinations are the uk, us and canada. the uk government says

the number of nigerians granted work visas has quadrupled since 2019. how easy is it to japa when you decide that want to do? it's not easy. the exchange rates is really hitting on all of us. easy is not the word but it's possible. it's very expensive to leave the country _ if n-sjust — for a temporary amount of time. it's expensive to leave but with the fluctuating currency it's not cheap to stay either. how much is this cup of rice? it is to be 15, but now its 2,200. this person is a market stall owner. the rising prices mean some shops here have had to close down and the economy is one of the main reasons forjapa. is it something you thought about? yes. several members of my family, yes. even the increase in dollar now affects so many people because the money is way too ridiculous.

there are also concerns for those left behind. the bulk of people going are it and healthcare professionals. the medical association says at least 50 doctors leave the country every single week. the government says it will train more people to fill those gaps and many of those who japa are determined to come back. it is why i love nigeria. it is for further studies and i will come back to practise. i will miss my people, my friends, my family. i love my country and i'm proud to be nigerian. so as well as the visa cost, there's an emotional price tag as well. many nigerians are weighing up theirfuture career prospects with the lives they have to leave behind. as you're no doubt aware by now, england has reached the final of the men's euros football championship with a dramatic victory over the netherlands. they won 2—1, thanks to

a late goal from 0llie watkins, and will now face spain on sunday in their first final on foreign soil in a major tournament. and the euros has provided a much—needed boost to the struggling pub industry in england with an estimated 18.6 million pints consumed during the england v switzerland quarterfinal alone, and no doubt that will be topped by the final on sunday. steve alton is chief executive of the british institute of innkeeping. did you watch? i absolutely did. a fantastic night for football and four great british pub is able to show that and a vital boost for trading. they are facing tough trading conditions, but again showing us what is hugely valued about pubs, that accessible space for people to come together in communities and celebrate what matters and that was at the

heart of my great local pub watching that fabulous much and looking forward to sunday. what looking forward to sunday. what will happen _ looking forward to sunday. what will happen on — looking forward to sunday. what will happen on sunday? - looking forward to sunday. what will happen on sunday? will pubs... pipe presumably have to go all out sunday and put on events ahead of the game, during, orafter. —— pubs. will it be late hours? during, or after. -- pubs. will it be late hours?— it be late hours? pubs have done food _ it be late hours? pubs have done food festivals, - it be late hours? pubs have done food festivals, live - done food festivals, live music, made it spectacular with football at the heart of it. that will happen again, everybody is gearing up for a huge day on sunday, but this is something important, part of summer trading and it has never been more vitalfor our summer trading and it has never been more vital for our pubs facing some of the toughest conditions they've ever faced in terms of cost, we have had inflation, for pipes running at over 20% in the food and drink they had to provide to their guests, had the national living wage increase which has not dissipated entry—level but all levels in pub teams and energy

costs are still incredibly high, so exceptional costs and only one of three members now, despite strong trading, is profitable and that is holding back their investment in their business and driving the growth economy needs. indie business and driving the growth economy needs.— business and driving the growth economy needs. we lost so many ubs economy needs. we lost so many pubs during _ economy needs. we lost so many pubs during and _ economy needs. we lost so many pubs during and after— economy needs. we lost so many pubs during and after the - pubs during and after the pandemic. is that trend stopping now?- pandemic. is that trend stopping now? pandemic. is that trend sto -|n~ now? ., ., stopping now? no, we saw a continuation _ stopping now? no, we saw a continuation of _ stopping now? no, we saw a continuation of that - stopping now? no, we saw a continuation of that trend, . continuation of that trend, losing about 80 pubs a month and that is sad because these pubs are lost to the communities and many will never be replaced. but there are so many out there that are viable businesses. these are exceptional short—term cost pressures, so we are looking to the new government and that has been positive towards the pub sector and we need that much with action and the biggest priority is the extension of the business support given to our pub sector that falls away at the end of march next year and for many that is make or break and for many that is holding back investment decisions, so getting an early announcement from government to extend that until business

rates inaudible reforms, but it is an unfairtax, rates inaudible reforms, but it is an unfair tax, taxing rates and mortar against the digital economy and that needs to be evened up and we need to be given a level playing field. how's the weather been affecting pubs? it how's the weather been affecting pubs?- how's the weather been affecting pubs? it has been a bit soggy- — affecting pubs? it has been a bit soggy- we _ affecting pubs? it has been a bit soggy. we are, _ affecting pubs? it has been a | bit soggy. we are, absolutely and look at the amazing pub garden is our members, 13,000 of them predominate run single pubs across the uk and invested in outside space, so seeing it cold and wet has held the. the euros has been a vital boost to have a trading and hopefully through that people have been reminded about why they treasure and value great local pubs and can continue because a pubs and can continue because a pub is notjust forfootball, it is for the rest of the year, a community event is now, more than they have ever done, provide lots of reasons to go, notjust provide lots of reasons to go, not just about having provide lots of reasons to go, notjust about having a beer, they have great coffee,

non—alcoholic office, fabulous food, so it is a community hub, so we are looking at hopefully the boost to get people back into pubs. we will need them now more than ever. we into pubs. we will need them now more than ever.- now more than ever. we are indeed and _ now more than ever. we are indeed and i'm _ now more than ever. we are indeed and i'm sure many i indeed and i'm sure many watching now will be heading to the pubs on sunday evening to watch england in the final. thank you. good to have you on the programme. i wonder what productivity levels will be like on monday. that is all from me. see you soon. hello. on wednesday, itjust wouldn't stop raining across parts of northeast scotland. in parts of aberdeenshire, we had over 70mm of rain in places — that's over a month's worth of rain. as well as the wet weather, it was also quite windy and cold. northeast scotland nowjoins parts of southern england and the midlands in places of the uk that already had well over a month's worth of rain so far this month, and we're onlyjust past the first week, of course. it continues to rain across northeast scotland, as well, with our area of low pressure

slow—moving out in the north sea, it continues to be wet here. but we do have another weather front bringing some rain across northern ireland, northern england and over the next few hours thatjust sinks a bit further southwards. so, heading into the first part of thursday morning, you might find a few patches of rain arrive across north wales and the north midlands. it's going to be a mild start to the day, though, on thursday, at least — temperatures 11—14 degrees. quite varied weather conditions from place to place on thursday. the low pressure continues to feed rain into northeast scotland — the rain, though, turning lighter and patchier, but potentially still damp even into the afternoon here. western scotland, brighter, some sunny spells and some sunshine coming through for northern ireland into the afternoon. for northern england, wales and parts of the north midlands, a few patches of rain in the morning, a few heavy showers into the afternoon. the south midlands, throughout southern england and probably south wales, a lot of dry, sunny and warm weather, with temperatures widely into the low 20s, and peaking at 23 — that's going to feel very pleasant in the sunshine. 0therwise, temperatures around 15—19 degrees.

for friday's forecast, we're watching this area of low pressure as it moves across northern france. it could come close enough to bring a band of persistent rain into southeast england. it's going to be be there or thereabouts, so we'lljust keep an eye on the developments with that. further northwest, this ridge of high pressure should break the cloud up across parts of west scotland, northern ireland, northwest england, so they're probably going to be the driest and brightest spots. but generally, the winds coming in from a northerly direction, so temperatures will continue to run below average, about 15—20 degrees for your high. now, the weekend sees low pressure get close to the northeast of the uk — so it's across eastern scotland and northeast england that will probably have some general outbreaks of rain developing. 0therwise, quite a lot of dry weather on saturday, just a few brief showers. sunday, mostly fine with temperatures high teens to low—20s. bye for now.

good morning, welcome to breakfast. 0ur headlines today. england through to the final of the european championship, beating the netherlands with a late goal from

substitute 0llie watkins. yes, a special night, a memorable night for the england fans watching here in dortmund, many of whom will be making the trip now to berlin for a sunday's final against spain. tributes to the three women killed at their home in hertfordshire, as police captured the suspect wanted over the murder. the prime minister and president biden made for the first time at the white house. good morning. how much could our water bills go up in the next five years? yea rs ? we get years? we get an update in an hour. years? we aet an udate in an hour. we get an update in an hour. good morninu. we get an update in an hour. good morning- it — we get an update in an hour. good morning- it may — we get an update in an hour. good morning. it may be _ we get an update in an hour. good morning. it may be james - we get an update in an hour. good morning. it may be james allison's party, but it is debutant gus atkin who steals the show. good morning. a fairly cloudy start to the day. for many it will remain that way. the heavy rain in scotland

easing, some