in the run—up i hear the same thing, isn't it boring, we know the result, labour will have a massive landslide, the conservatives will do terribly? actually that is correct, labour did when, the concert is imploded result. underneath the surface you basically can take any constituency in the country and find something interesting. a lot of attention has been on the shock results, like jonathan ashworth, myjaw was on the floor. so many interesting things when you look at the holds which don't warrant the attention. that is my biggest takeaway. my quiter moments, i go on the election software and look at places on the map. john, what is your big picture? something that interested

me is various age gradients, like you young and old are voting for. this selection, it wasn't new but it is thrown into light something steadily bolding over the last few years. the one i'm interested in is we got it into our heads over the last decades, with labour, if you are young you vote labour, if you are older you don't. starting in 2019 and clear now is now, pete labour is 30 years old. if you are 30, you are as labour as can be, so it's not a straight line. younger men voted slightly differently, that is interesting. it is a different generation. we will pick up on them in a moment. rob, give a big picture thought. my big picture thought is _ the electoral system never mattered more than it did here, in terms of how it - affected the behaviour

of voters. when you look at the marginal seats, labour over— performed where they were second. to the tories, and the lib dems over performance. looking at the same suit, i the conservatives fell more nsa pursuit, but labour also fell. as a result, they will go with - a bigger and more diverse set of marginal seats than we've ever had in any modern election before. - it will be the most. hotly contested and most diversely contested election ever coming up.| scarlett started by pointing out it seemed boring, - everyone knew what would happen. |that definitely won't be the case| next time, even if the polls point to a big win. there's so much going on in terms of the landscape that _

there will be a lot to watch. scarlett, another way to put it, when it is the next election, we will be looking at the individual contest and working what they are and have labour against conservatives against lib dems against reform. rather than the titanic battle normally between labour and conservatives, the two parties who could conceivably form a government. yes, and constituencies are becoming idiosyncratic. you might look at very broadly red wall constituencies and see what the conservative mp resisted the swing in the neighbouring constituency. you have labour mps coming in there with a much smaller majorities than you think. yes, we will see those fivewe scraps. three ways most of them.

if you look at the isle of wight, five parties with double digits in the isle of wight east. the conservatives held on with 30%, and reform on 20, greens under 20, and labour under20, and lib dems on ten. that will be replicated. you have examples like it or similar all over the country. john, scarlett used the phrase red wall. can we put that phrase to bed now? i think with stuff like the red wall it is not that it has gone back to labour forever, in the same way it didn't go tory forever in 2019. the red wall seat looking like your classic swing seats. these other types of people and views in those seats which should be and went that way. i think it is more the small swing

with the rest of the country. in five years' time, those seats will move with it but maybe lose the mythical significance over time. rob, the old definition of a marginal seat, was it the majority for the winner was less than 10% of the electorate question that wouldn't have been a good definition in this election. we need a broader definition given how volatile the - electorate has become. if we use a definition- like10%, 20% come pick your definition. on any definition there's a lot more of them. - i want to pick up- on what you said about the red wall. we spent a lot of time - in the last eight years talking about the red wall, l which is why i found it funny the equivalent set of seats for the conservatives, seats they've held for generations, they fell by the dozen in the selection.

that did not seem to attract - anywhere near the same amount of attention. we heard about the blue wall - where the lib dems were second, but plenty of seats second to labour where they haven't elected anythingi conservative mp since gladstone was i prime minister or the labour party. wasn't even founded. that is another front that has opened up electorally - in terms of a bunch - of places now behaving in a very different way to the way they have for an awful long time. l seats that used to be - save but our battlegrounds. for some reason they aren't attracting the attention - the red wall seats did. my theory is because so many of us whose job is to interpret it, we were up all night watching the result and i'm looking at the newscast hexagon map against the wall, which we had in the radio theatre, and it is very red, because labour won lots of seats but not blue enough because we

gave up colouring in art for 30. can see conservative holds are underrepresented. i wonder if so much of the narrative of what happened in the event of the election is really front—loaded by the first five hours of election night. just a theory, we will need someone wiser than me to prove it. scarlett, what are the implications of all of that for what happens in politics and the things we should look at in the next four or five yea rs ? i think for the last parliament we got interested in the idea of can the conservatives hold on inform labour areas, which we nicknamed the red wall? something and my company were interested in, something we kept hearing, you could see it in underlying data

on a people's opinions. more from focus groups, the colour of people fed up with everyone. they were much, much more fed up with the conservative party and keen to get them out of government. but it was this real plague on both your houses, these politicians are the same. we thought this must mean there is a volatility in the electorate, and we have seen this come to pass. a lot of attention has been given to those gains that these parties made, whether reform or the green party or different independent candidates campaigning on gaza, notjust art but broadly speaking. there are so many other constituencies where they have more of a stronger foothold. that means if you take some work like huddersfield, the green party have about 26% of the vote, in a much stronger position on the bare—bones bed to get

there this time. that is replicated in lots of places. that is just a green party, not talking about reform uk. birmingham and mosley got no attention because labour held it, but two independents got some of it. again, not a perfect magic, like the would have gone their way. it is all to say i think the electorate is incredibly volatile. we can see it, but in western countries, i think around the world this frustration with mainstream party politics. we have a different electoral system which i think producers quite different results. the labour landslide does obscure that sentiment in the public. it isn't a say it's not

an opportunity for keir starmer to turn it around, and we have seen his adjoining a honeymoon. we will see how long it lasts. it put every politician. there will be so many mps looking over their shoulder at reform, at the green party and independent candidates. shock result can happen at it makes the whole thing more tense. john, let's talk about those. i am just rolling through my spreadsheet. labour's seven losses... these were generally in seats with large muslim populations, in poor part of the country. i think that latter point is overstated. it was really the muslim vote that had an impact, something people have been talking about. there was a lot of anger both

within the muslim community and other parts of younger progressive britain about the position on gaza. there were calls for a ceasefire when labour and keir starmer weren't willing to go for it. they came around later. i think a lot of anger. scarlett touched on it, when people say it is notjust about gaza, it is and it isn't. gaza is the trigger that causes someone to question, hang on, why am i voting for this party? so much politics for younger people is you vote based on who your parents voted for or you think people like you vote for. when it comes along and you disagree with it, you can question all sorts. it isn'tjust a uk thing, signs of it happening in the us, a small population of african—americans moving away from the democrats. you can get it where a certain event like gaza triggers a broader, causes

someone to question what they are doing. in these seats where there was a clear gaza candidate, that just meant a lot of people felt they didn't have to vote labour. the labour supermajority narrative the tories were putting out, and notjust what they were saying but the knowledge labour were definitely going to win and were possibly going to win nationally meant people who were disgruntled with labour felt i would vote for someone else. rob, you've written lots of books. it seems to me the old things that made people vote a certain way, class, how you boated, your education, it has been added to by other factors which defined political choices. and also some of i the other things like ethnicity, they seem to be muttering drastically less in the selection. - i would like to put a shout out for leicester east, _ the only labour gain, and the seed

with the highest hindu share in the country. the conservative second safest seat is harrow east. _ that is the third - highest hindu population in the country. and there's a clear. trigger there as well. a quieter trigger perhaps than gaza, which has- dominated the news headlines. it is not impossible i to imagine the hindu population of this country has - notice the considers have provided ithe first ever hindu prime ministerl and have responded quite positively. it has been drowned out by the huge wave against it, but it is— significant. we have the two largest religious minority communities in - the country behaving in different ways to i the way they have in the past. if we look at class and income . and wealth and so on, you have a

huge cluster of the wealthiest seats on any of those metrics in the - country that have generally not done anything but vote conservative for. five generations and are all in lib dems hands. l the so—called gail seats. just expand on that theory, because that was in a column in the economist by journalist deborah robinson. he is a popular chap. explain as what the theory is. it was imparted to him by a lib dems activist, supposedly. _ apparently the lib dems i were looking for any seats which had a gails bakery. we have one in my seat, they are very posh, - nice expensive breads and muffins. that would seem to be reminiscent iof the greg seats in the red walli period.

it's a marker of a consumer, like waitrose. _ every look over the last 15 years, it is true if you - look at these kinds of places, surrey, i berkshire, hampshire, the _ conservative vote has i drifted down for a while. these are places that want - government to leave them alone and not cause any drama and rock the boat. - life is good for them. they get their gail's bones and go to - ——they get their gail's buns and go to - ascot and they are happy. they aren't happy now. other bakery chains are available. going back to leicester east, i remember in the old days when i worked on the daily politics i would go to these areas, mr candidates and ask for any questions and try to catch them out, find out things about the area. looking at leicester east i wish

i could have them my old job. as rob was saying, it was a tory gain from labour. that left the script. look at the candidates, keep that as. ——look at the candidates, keith vas. you have claudia webb, a former labour mp was a big ally ofjeremy corbyn. they did the same as the liberal democrat candidate and slightly more than the reform candidate. you think, i would have loved to have meet those people. the other one i think is liz truss's old seat, which i can't remember the name because it has too many points of the compass. south west norfolk... can't even remember. let me scroll down to south west norfolk. 25.9%.

i finally got there on my spreadsheet. she was facing this battle of the labour candidate who won, reform and the date who run her pretty close in third place, and this guy he was an independent but had tried to get rid of her as the tory candidate in the 20105. you had the lib dems and green party getting more than 1000 votes. she was battling against her own reputation as well. no wonder we didn't see much of liz truss. it wasn't that they wanted to lock her in a cupboard, she was fighting on multiple fronts. john, we will pick up on your point about young people voting, because we had this voice note from paris. hi, adam. firstly, what is the appeal of nigel farage to younger voters. they typically votes left. what could the conservatives do to win back the

support of the young? keep up the good work. thank you, paris. all the polls... i saw an interesting one about 16 and i7—year—olds potentially getting the votes, and amongst men, reform is really popular, which doesn't fit in with the stereotype a reform voter is pictured to be. scarlett, you will have lots to say, but it is difficult to get representative samples of any part of the population, 6016 and 17—year—olds. the exact numbers here, we probably shouldn't put too much weight into. the general finding of younger men being a bit more sympathetic to what a party like reform is saying, there's a fair amount of evidence. we aren't talking massive numbers. if you look at the data from the british election study, 30,000 person sample, done for years. the latest data, and the percentage of

men voting for reform my age, if you start people in their 70s and get younger, generally the population goes down until you get to about 25 and it goes up. the very youngest men, 19, 20, 21, i2, 30% of them support reform. not a massive number but much higher than women. it is higher than the millennial men. there seems to be something going on. it's hard to know what is going on. there's a temptation to think they are just trolling around, people who think it is rebellious. electoral anarchists. exactly. that is probably the

subject patronising. young people can hold political views for genuine reasons, notjust because they are trawls. i think a lot of people cast a vote on election day because they think screw it. that is a motivation people do use, notjust 16 or 17—year—olds. this is something we should be wary of pretending it is 50% of young men. it is a real thing. an interesting thing ifound which hasn't been picked up was this was actually true for the conservatives in 2019. again, the youngest men were more likely to vote tory in 2019 than men in their 30s. the tories weren't to clear the part you would vote for as a rebellious move. it's just a small subset of young men, there is a real thing where people are buying into what some of the more populous right—wing politicians are saying. no one has done muscle research into what aspects of this are.

is it immigration, the general i feel like somebody to stand up for me question mark borisjohnson and nigel farage do it. unclear, but we have enough evidence to say it is a real thing. scarlett, i'm glad you are here. do you agree? i do and i think picking up on a broader point, i think it is too easy to be too broadbrush when talking about voters and the parties they vote for. honestly it is a useful thing to do and there are some things you can observe in a more removed way. for example, reform voters care more about immigration. one thing we notice, during focus groups come all voters will surprise you. one thing we found over and again with reform voters is they care about immigration but they wanted the nhs fixed. slightly distorted by the fact

they think a lot of the time they will see immigration as a lens through which the public services aren't working well. they will say it is part of the same thing. so the reason you can't get a gp appointment is there is too many people moving to the country. but we found it is not just reform voters banging on about immigration. people more interested and idiosyncratic. people voting in the ballot box. and it is less easy to paint reasons on in those... rob, one of the things i hadn't really internalise is just how important for labour's comeback was scotland. my theory is it is something we took for granted because we knew labour would do well in scotland. we could feel it happening, said therefore we discounted it from the final results. yes, i think it is one of the most under discussed aspects of

the result. scotland is complicated and different. it selections have been different to ones in england and wales, which means it is hard to get it in the conversation. there they talk about it, but down here we focus on story as framed by england and wales. the snp completely collapse, almost as much as it rose in 2015 in the huge break after the independence referendum. it was an enormous surge in scottish labour's vote. that is point number one. point number two, it was a bigger swing than expected by virtually all the polling. the polling in scotland seems to substantially understate the scale of the labour advance. it was worth 30 or 35 seats. if scotland continues to behave

differently to the rest of britain, that could be important in the next election because it is yet another facet of a fragmented electorate. just to tap on the previous discussion about young people and reform, a further facet is yes, young man voted more for reform, but i looked it up. young women, 23%, nearly a quarter voted for the green. a higher share than perhaps any other demographic. you've got a big gender divide on both end of the spectrum. you have younger men drifting towards the right and younger women by a larger degree drifting towards the party on the progressive left. yes, i picked up anecdotally younger women being enamoured by the green party. not necessarily the individual policies but that as a brand to tap into. that is one of the other themes,

which is keir starmer moving labour to the centre will alienate people on the far left and quite left as well. that is all for this episode. hello. if you like cool weather with lots of clouds and the weekend may be perfect for you, but be careful what you wish for. it may end up being a little too chilly with the rain and the wind off the north sea. and for many of us actually, the weekend is looking quite mixed at the moment. 0n the satellite picture we have clouds circling the uk. this cloud here is responsible for the damp weather and you can see the outbreaks of rain there across many eastern parts of the country. but earlier on in the night we will have had some clear spells out towards the west and 7am temperatures around 11 to 13 degrees

with lower values earlier on in the night. so a lot of clouds to start the day wherever you are. but soon sunny spells will be developing out towards the west and in some central areas. showers will develop too across wales, southern england, some in northern ireland. but here, along the north sea coast, layers of cloud, outbreaks of rain. there's a weather front there and it's going to feel quite chilly. look at that. 1a in aberdeen, 1a in newcastle no higher than about 15 in hull and out towards the west. perhaps temperatures not even making 20 celsius even where the sun does come out. now here's sunday, we still have that low pressure circling in the north sea here with that breeze out of the north. outbreaks of rain from time to time. but i think for many of us, actually sunday is going to be a drier, brighter day. and as a result, the temperatures will be a little bit higher. a good day, i think overall for wimbledon on sunday, and it's looking hot and sunny in germany as well for that football match. now let's have a look at the forecast then for sunday evening. if you're planning to spend it outdoors, perhaps in your garden

looking mostly dry across most of the uk. here's a look at the forecast for monday now. surprise, surprise, a weatherfront sweeps in from the southwest. it'll bring outbreaks of rain, potentially heavy showers at times, even some thunderstorms possible. but this time i think eastern areas should hang on to the better weather. and because there's going to be a bit of a change in the wind direction. so coming in from the south, the temperatures will be typically in the low 20s. how about the outlook? well, next week again mixed bag in the north of the country. and because there's going to be a bit of a change in the wind direction. so coming in from the south, the temperatures will be typically in the low 20s. how about the outlook? well, next week again mixed bag in the north of the country. but further south there are hints, tentative hints that things are going to be turning a little bit warmer. that's it. bye bye.

live from washington, this is bbc news. us presidentjoe biden campaigns in michigan as calls for him to drop out of the presidential race persist. a judge has thrown out an involuntary manslaughter case against actor alec baldwin. hello. us presidentjoe biden is hitting the campaign trail with a rally in michigan amid continued scutiny over his re—election prospects.

the rally in michigan's largest city detroit is being closely watched, after more democrats in the house of representatives have joined calls for mr biden to bow out of the 2024 presidential race. michigan is a critical state in this year's election — and one the president cannot afford to lose. but many in the democratic party worry about mr biden�*s bid for the white house after new gaffes at the nato summit, and lingering panic from his poor debate showing. you're looking at live pictures here. this is that event in michigan where we are expecting the president to appear on stage at any moment. this is a rally that's taking place amidst continue scrutiny over his election prospects and his

ability to lead that campaign against some