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tv   The Context  BBC News  July 16, 2024 8:00pm-8:31pm BST

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hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. donald trump is as healthy as anybody i've ever met — i tell him all the time, he's got ridiculous genes. i plan to be a very good vice president for donald trump for four years. i've never ever misused or abused my ministerial position. my integrity matters. i have not compromised it. the world is changing fast. the threats are growing. in those circumstances, - it's right we take a look at the threats, capabilities we need, the state of our armed forces as well as the money that's available to fund those. - it is day two of the republican convention, donald trump firmly in command of his party and increasingly in control of the race.
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on stage tonight — nikki haley, one of his fiercest rivals during the republican primary. she had planned to miss this convention, but changed her mind after the attempted assassination on saturday. in the uk today, it's a tale of two resignations. the first minister of wales, vaughan gething, steps down after four months in the job. we'll get reaction from cardiff. and after eight years in charge, and one of the most successful reigns as england manager, gareth southgate calls it day. who will replace him? we will get a view on that later in the programme. good evening. when donald trump arrived at the republican convention in 2016, it was not an all—embracing welcome. back then the texas governor ted cruz urged the delegates to vote their conscience and reject this republican imposter. that year many of the governors didn't even turn up. the venture capitalistjd vance described him as america's hitler.
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how different it looked last night. # i #ihad # i had to start again, just my children and my wife # i think my lucky stars... this is no longer the party of ronald regan. in fact the veteran senator mitch mcconnell, who supports ukraine, and was first elected the year regan won his second term, was booed loudly from the floor. madame chairman. booing. jd vance, who had voiced contempt for trump, until his road to damascus moment, is now the future. picked as the running mate, because he unlike mcconnell espouses the kind of isolationism,
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that has earned him trump's favour. it is not universally popular. he does very little for party unity. but he is a continuation of the brand. and he will be used to widen the base, and their support in michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania. the three states that could carry trump across the line. donald trump is as healthy as anybody i've ever met — i tell him all the time, he's got ridiculous genes. i plan to be a very good vice president for donald trump for four years. nikki haley, the only woman to seek the republican presidential nomination, was not invited to this convention — even though she'd endorsed trump several months ago and had released the 97 delegates she won, so the could support donald trump in last night's roll call. since saturday, however, things have changed. nikki haley will be there tonight, and on stage. the former governor of south carolina will be calling for party unity, having previously had this to say about the former president. the majority of americans disapprove of donald trump. 60% of americans thinkjoe biden
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and donald trump are too old to be president. let's cross live to milwaukee, and speak to our colleague sumi somaskanda. the hall starting to fill up ahead of the day's agenda. let's talk about nikki haley first. she called donald trump unhinged the primaries. how will she be received tonight? that clip you just play takes me back to a bitterly cold new hampshire injanuary back to a bitterly cold new hampshire in january where back to a bitterly cold new hampshire injanuary where we were covering the primaries. at that point, nikki haley was the last major challenger of donald trump. we saw her in new hampshire taking a sharp attack against donald trump, starting to become more pointed in her criticism but donald trump was angry calling her bird—brain and he was furious that she did not concede after iowa staying in the race. fast—forwa rd to after iowa staying in the race. fast—forward to about a few weeks ago when nikki haley said she was endorsing donald trump, as you
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mentioned already releasing her delegates to him. and after saturday, deciding she is going to come here and speak. i don't know exactly what the reception is going to be like. in fact, i am interested to be like. in fact, i am interested to see because nikki haley cast herself when she was running against donald trump in the primaries as a new guard, the future of the party and donald trump as the old guard pointing to his age saying the republican party needs to move forward. indeed they are calling for unity and that is something we have seen from nikki haley and someone else who will be following her on stage, florida governor ron desantis primary opponent of donald trump. i am assuming with this message of unity is calling for republicans to come together to defeatjoe biden will get some applause, of course, but it goes to show how the tables have turned. we used to talk about the democrats as the party of unity, all closing ranks behind their candidate, now that appears to be the world publicans. this party is
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very clearly donald trump's partey. that was self—evident and the reaction of mitch mcconnell got last night. reaction of mitch mcconnell got last niuht. . , , ._ reaction of mitch mcconnell got last niuht. . , , ., , ., night. certainly. he played a bit of that clip and _ night. certainly. he played a bit of that clip and what _ night. certainly. he played a bit of that clip and what was also - that clip and what was also difficult for mitch mcconnell in that moment, as he was being booed, his mic cut out, a technical problem that added to the embarrassment in that added to the embarrassment in that moment for him. with his position, not only has he been critical of donald trump, he has been a vocal supporter of more aid for ukraine, what a contrast to the vice presidential pick, jd vance who as you know, on foreign policy has advocated a more isolationist approach and criticise aid ukraine saint ukraine cannot win the war and should cede territory. you see the contrast between the party of old with the mitch mcconnell and the party of the future as donald trump seesit party of the future as donald trump sees it with his vice presidential pick. sees it with his vice presidential ick. ~ ~ sees it with his vice presidential ick. ~ . ~ . ., sees it with his vice presidential ick. ~ . a ., sees it with his vice presidential ick. ~. ~. ., sees it with his vice presidential ick. �*. ~. ., sees it with his vice presidential pick. mitch mcconnell, as you say, a keen supporter_ pick. mitch mcconnell, as you say, a keen sunporter of— pick. mitch mcconnell, as you say, a keen supporter of ukraine _ pick. mitch mcconnell, as you say, a keen supporter of ukraine aid - pick. mitch mcconnell, as you say, a keen supporter of ukraine aid very i keen supporter of ukraine aid very much in the reagan brand, always has
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campaigned against the malign influence of russia yet year you have a young 39—year—old running mate who has met victor orban, does not think that conceding ground in ukraine to pressure would not be a defeat, a very different picture. in that vein, the theme of the days to make america safe again, for public would say, how do you make america safe again if you are appeasing russia in the wayjd vance could be criticised for doing? russia in the way jd vance could be criticised for doing?— criticised for doing? their answer to that would _ criticised for doing? their answer to that would be _ criticised for doing? their answer to that would be to _ criticised for doing? their answer to that would be to focus - criticised for doing? their answer to that would be to focus on - to that would be to focus on domestic policies before america can focus on supporting allies abroad. their particular answer to that is immigration and crime. they see the fact that presidentjoe biden has struggled with immigration policy and they call it biting �*s field immigration policy making america less safe here unable to help allies abroad including ukraine that and thatis abroad including ukraine that and that is why we have seen the platform for the second term of the
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publican party claiming immigrants are responsible for a massive crime with all for deportation and jd vance says america has to say at home before we talk about america being safe at abroad and this is something that will be echoed on the stage and we will probably hear from speakers who have been affected by immigration and crime in fact, family members of a victim who was killed by a victim who was here unlawfully in that gives you 90 of the type of rhetoric here on stage. it feels good very difficult republican party. that for sure bull focus on the implications for that. for the wider world and particularly for europe later in the programme but thank you. she will be here with world news america later. earlier this year, you may remember we spoke to the student journalist quinn mitchell, who had been to over 100 political
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rallies, throwing questions at all the candidates who were running to be president. this was part of our interview injanuary around the time of the new hampshire primaries. nikki haley is closely guarded, closely scripted, she has not wanted to take my questions in the past. i've been prodded and shouted at by her staffers. when i think of nikki haley climbing on the stage to endorse donald trump tonight, you were the first person i thought of, what you make of it? i anticipate nikki haley to change her messaging to best fit her prospects in 2028. that is who she has been on the campaign trailfor a in 2028. that is who she has been on the campaign trail for a while. in 2028. that is who she has been on the campaign trailfor a while. she did take the heat to trump after new hampshire and south carolina when trump got personal with her husband's military deployment. but this is an outreach to the middle
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ground where haley supporters sit and like you said earlier, how will the crowd react? 0ut last night a woman said she voted for biden in 2020 and the crowd booed her so i would not be surprised if the crowd is very hostile tonight because as you say, this is the party of trump and i will be very interested to see how this plays out.— how this plays out. what about your home state — how this plays out. what about your home state of— how this plays out. what about your home state of new _ how this plays out. what about your home state of new hampshire, - how this plays out. what about your. home state of new hampshire, it has been nearly a quarter of a century since a republican carried new hampshire, you would have to go all the way back to george w. bush in 2000, but the governor who endorsed nikki haley and has been one of donald trump most vocal critics says your state is very much in play now. saying it is a coin toss as to how it may go. does it feel like that to you. i it may go. does it feel like that to ou. ,. , it may go. does it feel like that to ou. , ., , you. i say the voters in new hampshire _ you. i say the voters in new hampshire are _ you. i say the voters in new hampshire are very - you. i say the voters in new. hampshire are very undivided, i don't think they are party aligned,
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if they see something for donald trump they will vote for donald trump, there was a recent poll that showed trump up by a couple of points last election i would've said absolutely not, new hampshire is not in play, at this point, i'm not really sure because there is just so many polls right now that showed trump up and swing states by 3—5 points. north carolina only losing virginia by able a point. i would say it is unlikely that trump takes the state, but i would not rule it out as a possibility. i know if my voters think trump or the voters think in new hampshire trump is more “p think in new hampshire trump is more up to thejob think in new hampshire trump is more up to the job they will vote for him. it up to the 'ob they will vote for him. , ., ., . ., him. it will be a turnout election in one of the _ him. it will be a turnout election in one of the concerns _ in one of the concerns within democratic circles in new hampshire is that they won't get out the base. do you pick up some of that when you talk to people? i do you pick up some of that when you talk to neonate?— talk to people? i would say there is a real fear amongst _ talk to people? i would say there is a real fear amongst the _ talk to people? i would say there is a real fear amongst the democrats| a realfear amongst the democrats that they do not turn out
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third—base. i would also say a majority of voters in america are really discontent about the two candidates we have in november. just talking to my peers, my generation especially we want someone young so it will be interesting to see how the dance would appeal. i it will be interesting to see how the dance would appeal.- it will be interesting to see how the dance would appeal. i was going to ask you. — the dance would appeal. i was going to ask you. i — the dance would appeal. i was going to ask you, i don't _ the dance would appeal. i was going to ask you, i don't tend _ the dance would appeal. i was going to ask you, i don't tend to _ to ask you, i don't tend to understand your politics, but do you recognise something in him, he is clearly the future, is a good to see a 39—year—old in the race as opposed to some 70 plus —year—olds. i got a 39-year-old in the race as opposed to some 70 plus -year-olds.- to some 70 plus -year-olds. i got to see the guy — to some 70 plus -year-olds. i got to see the guy six _ to some 70 plus -year-olds. i got to see the guy six months _ to some 70 plus -year-olds. i got to see the guy six months ago and - to some 70 plus -year-olds. i got to see the guy six months ago and i - see the guy six months ago and i got to ask him pretty tough questions on america and racism and i went up to him afterwards and he let me follow—up three times. i thought his handlers would jump in but he let me follow—up three times. that is something i've never really seen before in these at the handlers that cover the other maga candidates, i
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know the guy and it is a confident pic from trump to pickjd vance. this is not an electoral play, this is for the next generation of leadership and i hope that by recognises that and match that in some step because i know, if he does that, that will inspire my generation to turn out more if we get a younger person on the ticket. as far asjd get a younger person on the ticket. as farasjd vance get a younger person on the ticket. as far asjd vance appealing to young voters, i would have to see how his messaging is. i know he has had a few problems, or some interesting messaging around abortion which is a topic that troubles my generation so it would be interesting to see how he is in the debate with kamala harris. always good to see you and good to get your thoughts. we will touch base perhaps a little closer to the election but we don't get the views of younger voters enough on this
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programme particularly from a swing state like new hampshire. the public calls from democrats for president biden to bow out of the presidential race are not as loud as they were before saturday — but privately, the efforts to urge him to rethink are continuing. there is reporting tonight from the new york times that congressman adam schiff of california has privately told democrat donors that he thinks his party could suffer substantial losses in november, if president biden remains at the top of the ticket. national polling from the cook report suggest is trailing by two. there are other polls that show him behind in the seven swing states that will decide the election. with us tonight, also at the convention is david wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst for the cook political report. can you bring our viewers up on where polling is heading in the seven swing states.— where polling is heading in the seven swing states. keep in mind there is a difference _ seven swing states. keep in mind there is a difference between - seven swing states. keep in mind | there is a difference between what there is a difference between what the national polls are showing, which shows trump up by about two points which still seems like a
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competitive race and what the swing state polls are showing which is a much narrow form less plausible path for the former president to win reelection. going down the list of six critical states likely to decide the outcome and president biden is trailing by larger margins in those sunbelt states that he won in 2020 including arizona, georgia in nevada, states that have recently shifted from toss—up to lean republican inch trailing by 5—6 points in those states. looking at the northern trio of wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania. wisconsin and michigan are biden least worst states, but still trailing there by 2-3 states, but still trailing there by 2—3 points on average. in pennsylvania where we have had ia, make that 15 public polls taken since mid—march and biden has not let a single one. averaging them together, but biden has been trailing in pennsylvania by a—5 points. that rate there, if we help
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the election next week would be an electoral college landslide for donald trump. looking underneath the hood of the data, it is clear biden struggling to replicate his 2020 levels of support among three critical groups that ought to be based democratic voting blocs, black voters, hispanic voters and young voters. where his margins are much smaller than they were four years ago. smaller than they were four years auo. ., smaller than they were four years aao_ ., , smaller than they were four years auo. ., , ., ., smaller than they were four years am, ., , ., ., ., ago. you 'ust heard from quinn there in new ago. you just heard from quinn there in new hampshire _ ago. you just heard from quinn there in new hampshire which _ ago. you just heard from quinn there in new hampshire which is _ ago. you just heard from quinn there in new hampshire which is a state i in new hampshire which is a state that could be in play, i don't know, you may have a view on that but clearlyjd vance piques his interest. we should also mention that we should make reference to sean o'brien residents of the teamsters never appearing, president of the teamsters at a republican convention before, they're trying to chip away at the blue—collar workers, younger voters, the base. evenif workers, younger voters, the base. even if they could get into that by 10-20%, that even if they could get into that by 10—20%, that makes a huge difference in the swing states. it 10-20%, that makes a huge difference in the swing states.— in the swing states. it does and it seaks to in the swing states. it does and it speaks to the _ in the swing states. it does and it
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speaks to the cultural— in the swing states. it does and it speaks to the cultural evolution l in the swing states. it does and it| speaks to the cultural evolution of the republican party. trump, his innovation in 2016 was to play up issues where he had commonalities with the pot of former democrats and people who voted for bill clinton backin people who voted for bill clinton back in the 1990s, particularly on trade and immigration. jd vance is a continuation of that populist evolution. he has teamed up with progressive democratic senators on holding banking ceos, large banks accountable, even if he is on the right of trump on social issues including abortion, he has been less quick to emphasise those issues that used to be wedged divisions between the republican party and many of the blue—collar, secular voters in those northern rust belt states that are necessary to win national elections. for years, necessary to win national elections. foryears, republicans necessary to win national elections. for years, republicans like bob dole and mitt romney struggled to break through with many of those blue—collar voters because they were
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perceived as advocating tax breaks for the wealthy or bible thumpers who wanted to impose moral values on issues like same—sex marriage and abortion. this trump advance ticket is much more focused on the border, focused on increasing tariffs and running against elites and brokenness and that is a message playing very well with voters that both parties need to win two lack the electoral college code. == the electoral college code. -- wokeness- — the electoral college code. —— wokeness. give me a thought on nikki haley. to her voters come with her when she takes to the stage? the atmosphere _ when she takes to the stage? iie: atmosphere here when she takes to the stage? "iie: atmosphere here in when she takes to the stage? ii2 atmosphere here in milwaukee when she takes to the stage? i““i2 atmosphere here in milwaukee is when she takes to the stage? ii2 atmosphere here in milwaukee is very much more united behind this ticket than what we are seeing on the democratic side where just 33% of voters according to the latest nbc news poll are satisfied with their nominee. 71% of republican voters are. so even if nikki haley is not enamoured with trump or vance or their politics, she sees where this train is headed and wants to be part
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of what is looking like a winning combination.— of what is looking like a winning combination. ., ., combination. good to have you with us tonight. — combination. good to have you with us tonight, david. _ around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. let's look at some of the other stories making headlines today. gareth southgate has resigned as the manager of england. his departure comes two days after england lost to spain in the euros final. the football association said that he had "transformed" the england team over the last eight years and delivered unforgettable memories. we'll have more reaction to his resignation a little later in the programme. the czech billionaire bidding to take over royal mail has told the bbc that letters will be delivered six days a week, for the same price anywhere in the uk, as long as he is alive. daniel kretinsky�*s £3.6 billion takeover requires government approval, and unions have expressed grave concerns over his plans. the burial operation for 77 pilot wales that died after washing ashore in 0rkney is under way. the animals were found last thursday, in what is thought to have been the largest mass
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stranding for decades. about a dozen that were still alive were euthanised. four months ago, vaughan gething became wales' first minister. today, he has quit as both leader of the welsh labour party — and, as a result, first minister. he had little choice — earlier in the day, three of his government ministers and his top legal adviser all released statements calling on him to go. ever since he took on the job, he has been dogged by these questions about a £200,000 payment to his campaign from a businessman convicted of environmental offences. then he sacked hannah blythyn as a minister, accusing her of leaking to a news website. last week, the website said, in fact, she was not the source. the prime minister keir starmer tweeted his thanks to vaughan gething and said he "should take enormous pride in being the first black leader of any country in europe". mr gething said it has been the honour of his life to do the job
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and defended his actions. let's take a listen to vaughan gething addressing the senedd. in 11 years as a minister, i have never, ever, made a decision for personal gain. i have never, ever misused or abused my ministerial position. my integrity matters. i have not compromised it. live to cardiff, and our correspondent lucy vladev. lucy, it's been rumbling on, this, for several weeks all coming to a head in a hurry, what force the move today, in your opinion? yes. head in a hurry, what force the move today, in your opinion?— today, in your opinion? yes, it has been a very _ today, in your opinion? yes, it has been a very emotional _ today, in your opinion? yes, it has been a very emotional day - today, in your opinion? yes, it has been a very emotional day here . today, in your opinion? yes, it has been a very emotional day here in| been a very emotional day here in cardiff, not least from the outgoing first minister, vaughan gething, you hurt a bit of his speech there, using words like pernicious, politically motivated to describe some of his colleague's actions and
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that high drama has been echoed by the reaction of other parties, plaid cymru sang the chaos of labour in the past few months has been unforgivable. that has been echoed by the welsh conservatives who have been questioning hisjudgment. been questioning his judgment. labour striking been questioning hisjudgment. labour striking a far more muted tone as you might expect, keir starmer thinking him for his service and a lot of the labour politicians behind me saying he was brave to go. so vaughan gething, only been in charge for 118 days, but as you say, coming off a lot has happened in that time. there were questions raised about a £200,000 donation from a businessman convicted of environmental offences and there is theissue environmental offences and there is the issue with hannah blythyn. sacked as a minister for a the issue with hannah blythyn. sacked as a ministerfor a leaking text messages, something that she denies. all of this chaos lead to a vote of no—confidence last month which vaughan gething lost, but
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decided to stay on as first minister. actually up until a few days ago, he had pretty wide support from the labour party, but that tone shifted in the past few days. jeremy miles, who he actually competed against in the last leadership race refusing to show his or port for him in an itv interview —— his support for him and that we had these for resignations this morning, so he is gone what will happen in the next a8 hours will tell us what we are likely to see and when we are like to see a new welsh first minister. we will keep watching and welsh politics. lots in american politics as well. jurors in manhattan have convicted the democratic party senator, bob menendez, at his federal trial on corruption. he was found guilty on all 16 charges — including bribery, acting as a foreign agent, and obstructing justice. prosecutors accused mr menendez of helping direct billions of dollars in us aid to egypt in return for cash, gold bars, and other bribes. ione wells is in washington
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for us this evening. does he just resign or does hejust resign or are does he just resign or are they going to have to force him out? git the moment, multiple
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pressure on him to step down and not run for reelection and it could well be that he faces time in prison, too. ,, , , , be that he faces time in prison, too. ,, , ,, ,, ,, too. sensitive issue because he sits on some rea“)!— too. sensitive issue because he sits on some really important _ too. sensitive issue because he sitsj on some really important senatorial committees. on some really important senatorial committees-— committees. that's right. he was previously _ committees. that's right. he was previously the — committees. that's right. he was previously the head _ committees. that's right. he was previously the head of _ committees. that's right. he was previously the head of the - committees. that's right. he was i previously the head of the senate's very powerful committee that deals with foreign affairs, making this particular claim all the more damaging for him because as a site the centre of this case was the allegation he was excepting these gifts to aid the egyptian government, taking gifts from businessman on behalf of the egyptian government to perhaps illegally aid them. now he as he says strongly refuted that with a lot of his defence centring around his argument that they could not be seen to be bribes because the prosecution could not prove that any action was taken as a result of achieving these gifts though he did not deny taking the gifts themselves. it certainly those gold
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bars as well as the walls of cash were used as evidence in this trial. hello there. things did brighten up a bit today, but still, temperatures peaked at around 20 or 21 degrees. we've also seen some heavy showers developing in scotland and northern parts of england as well, but once those move away overnight, the next few days, the rest of the week looking much more promising with drier and warmer weather on the way as well. and that's mainly because we're going to replace low pressure with high pressure that's moving in from the southwest — that's going to bring with it those rise in temperatures. still some heavy showers though this evening across eastern scotland and north east england to finally move away into the north sea. the showers elsewhere will fade away more quickly. skies will clear as it becomes drier overnight and temperatures will dip away to around 10 or 11 degrees — a few short—lived mist and fog patches in western areas. heading into tomorrow, though, on the whole, a sunny start and a lovely day on the way. temperatures will rise quickly. that will lead to some cloud development, and there's just the risk of one or two light showers, but on the whole, it should be dry and with light winds and some sunshine, it's going to feel a lot warmer and temperatures
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are going to be a few degrees higher than what we saw today. we could actually reach 25 degrees on wednesday afternoon for the first time this month. 25 is not particularly impressive for this time of the year, but we're going to find temperatures getting higher than that later on in the week. there is a weather front in the northwest that's going to bring some cloud and some patchy rain, but ahead of that, we're drawing in southerly breezes, bringing us these higher temperatures. with that weather front, we've got this cloud across scotland, northern ireland, through the irish sea, with most of the showers, england and wales seeing more in the way of sunshine again. those temperatures continuing to rise, reaching 27 degrees, actually, in the south east of england. it's not going to be as warm as that in scotland and northern ireland, and there'll still be more cloud here, at least to start with on friday. any rain becoming confined to the walls of far northwest may well brighten up. but again, it's across england and wales where we'll see the drier weather with more sunshine and those temperatures continuing to rise. the warmth may push a little bit further north, but the highest temperatures, 29 or 30 degrees, are likely in the southeast. is it going to last? well, unfortunately, it looks like things are going to change over the weekend. some wet weather developing, pushing eastwards and dropping the temperatures.
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hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. gareth southgate resigns as england manager. we look at how his time in charge will be remembered. sport, and for a full round—up from the bbc sport centre, here's marc edwards. i don't think we've got any sound from mark there from salford, and in fact we've got all sort of sound gremlins. let's move on... can we go back? 0k, can you hear me?

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