hello and welcome. this is business today. i'm sally bundock. a multibillion—pound hole in the uk's finances — that is the bombshell we're expecting from chancellor of the exchequer rachel reeves when she speaks to parliament later today. she will accuse the previous government of "covering up" shortfalls in departmental budgets and then "running away". the conservative party though says she's trying to "con the british public" so that she can raise taxes — something labour promised not to do. so, let's have a look at some of the numbers. so, £20 billion is the big number that's being widely reported as the potential shortfall between tax revenues coming in and the spending going out. and here's one major factor behind that — public sector pay. independent pay review bodies have recommended a 5.5% pay rise for teachers and nurses

and other nhs staff in line with workers elsewhere in the economy. if — as expected — the chancellor agrees to that, it will cost the treasury an extra £3.5 billion according to the institute for fiscal studies. but if pay reviews for other public sector workers — police, doctors, dentists and prison staff — come up with a similar number — the ifs warns this could quickly rise to ten billion. here's our business editor faisal islam. it is not a budget. this is the most important statement of this new chancellor. we've heard a lot about the tens of millions of pounds gap from this audit of spending pressures inherited by this government from the previous government from the previous government that will, they say, be revealed in a document listed. we've heard less about the idea that the chancellor may stand up and try to close

that gap with a series of projects axed and other spending restraint, at least start to close that gap, starting in this financial year, it is unusual, and a lot of this process, this exercise is unusual. on the other side of the ledger, we will hear i think that for some public sector workers, teachers, armed forces, prison personnel at least that they should be getting a pay rise in real terms, so above inflation, depending on what was recommended by a review bodies, and we also get this almighty row where the opposition, the former government say this is just the pretext for tax rises as a budget in the autumn. that was our economics _ as a budget in the autumn. that was our economics editor there. let's unpack this further. james smith is developed markets economist covering the uk at ing here in london. james, good to have you on the programme. obviously there is a lot of discussion about what reeves is going to say in parliament later today. your thoughts? i parliament later today. your thoughts?—

thoughts? i think a lot of it is politics _ thoughts? i think a lot of it is politics and _ thoughts? i think a lot of it is politics and a _ thoughts? i think a lot of it is politics and a lot - thoughts? i think a lot of it is politics and a lot of - thoughts? i think a lot of it is politics and a lot of it - thoughts? i think a lot of it is politics and a lot of it is. is politics and a lot of it is not new either, really. there was a sense during the campaign and none of the major parties were necessarily fully acknowledging the challenges in the public finances. no wonder the public finances. no wonder the existing budget from the previous government that, yes, the office —— offers about responsibilities at our main physical, the goalposts of the public finances, the rules would be met but i would be met by promising big real term cuts to public since spending and i think there is a sense those cuts would be very realistic to implement. i think what we are seeing today and what will follow is all part of the process trying to address those cuts, trying to find more money. but of course the question is where does the money come from? it doesn't sound like we will get a huge amount of detail on the today and have to wait for the budget in the autumn.— in the autumn. that is the wor , in the autumn. that is the worry. what _ in the autumn. that is the worry, what will— in the autumn. that is the worry, what will be - in the autumn. that is the worry, what will be in - in the autumn. that is the j worry, what will be in that budget, because many are now already assuming that this will give rachel reeves a reason to

raise taxes, something the labour party promised they wouldn't do in the run—up to the general election. i wouldn't do in the run-up to the general election.- the general election. i think it looks fairly _ the general election. i think it looks fairly inevitable. - the general election. i think| it looks fairly inevitable. the question is what those tax rises look like, and i think actually in the first year or so, i think there are probably some easy wins that the labour party combined in some of the minor taxes that people may be don't talk about so much, maybe sort of tweaking some of the fiscal rules, the accounting, which the office for budget responsibility looks at. there is a few things they can do to unlock maybe ten, £20 billion in the first year, i think as time goes on, the big pressures facing the health service and of course other public services as well, i think many think it will not be adjusted, minor taxes and potentially those major taxes, things like national insurance, may ultimately need to be looked at. the question is whether it is this year or in the future. all right. james comer thank you very much for your thoughts on that. james smith. we will be across her announcements in

parliament later today here on bbc news. now to the uk's financial heart, the city of london, because new rules come into force today, designed to make it a more attractive place for companies to list their shares. britain's finance regulator, the financial conduct authority, says it's the biggest change in over three decades, and will "boost growth and innovation". the london stock exchange has struggled to attract share sales from companies in recent years. chip designer arm — seen as the �*jewel in the crown�* of uk tech — caused widespread disappointment in the city when it chose new york for its recent share listing. so, what are the changes and will they work? john godfrey is managing director for public affairs, policy & economic research at thecityuk, which is the financial industry's lobby group. talk us through these changes, what difference they will make. good morning. these are indeed important changes, and they will signify and streamline the

listing process, notjust for primary listings, but also for secondary, where the stock exchange in london has been doing rather better recently. the key happening here are really a merger of the standard and premium segments of the stock exchange, and a provision of greater autonomy for companies as they drew some transactions and mergers. so there will be a higher threshold, for example, for the requirements for perspectives and they do secondary fundraising �*s. in this, in aggregate, will actually make this a more competitive set of exchanges in london, the lse, the ftse, it will make the whole london set up more competitive and attractive for companies to list.— companies to list. does it, though. — companies to list. does it, though. di _ companies to list. does it, though, di luca _ companies to list. does it, though, di luca corporate| though, di luca corporate governance at all? is there a

concern about that, that we are chasing the money he had —— dilute. chasing the money he had -- dilute. ., , , dilute. no, there will still be a disclosure _ dilute. no, there will still be a disclosure regime. - dilute. no, there will still be a disclosure regime. it - dilute. no, there will still be a disclosure regime. it of. dilute. no, there will still be | a disclosure regime. it of the greatest and onus on the companies to communicate better with our investors. so this does not di luca corporate governance, and strong corporate governance in the uk is still one of the selling points, even with these changes —— dilute. it gets the balance of power right to help companies in the growth stage and scale up stage company this market and use this market for their finance.— their finance. 0k. john godfrey. _ their finance. 0k. john godfrey, thank - their finance. 0k. john godfrey, thank you - their finance. 0k. john godfrey, thank you for| their finance. 0k. john - godfrey, thank you for your view on the changes being put into effect from today. here we have a regular on the programme. justin urquhart—stewart is a financial markets veteran and founder of the investment platform regionally. are these changes for better or for worse?— for worse? very much for the better. for worse? very much for the better- one _ for worse? very much for the better. one of— for worse? very much for the better. one of the _

for worse? very much for the better. one of the things - for worse? very much for the better. one of the things i i better. one of the things i have looked at is to broaden this out notjust on the london markets, we have the main lse markets, we have the main lse markets, but also regional as well. there is no shortage of money in this country. what we got rid of his pipelines which allow that money to to investment. now has to go primarily through the london markets. what we should be doing is making sure the regional scottish and welsh markets, northern irish, don't have to be through old—fashioned stock exchange. old —fashioned stock exchange. we old—fashioned stock exchange. we have the technology to do it in a much more efficient manner. a good start but let's look farther towards more initiative and investment and more incentive for investors to come to the market. 50. more incentive for investors to come to the market.— come to the market. so, a simpler. — come to the market. so, a simpler, clearer _ come to the market. so, a simpler, clearer process, l come to the market. so, a - simpler, clearer process, which is improving things for the london stock exchange and the city of london, but at the same time, there is the spotlight on the fce when it comes to shein,

looking for a london listing stop the us do not want shein for various reasons and yet we are seeing really happy to take the money. we are seeing really happy to take the money-— the money. we have to be careful because _ the money. we have to be careful because we - the money. we have to be careful because we went l the money. we have to be - careful because we went through this with various russian companies as well who plundered in —— floated in london. they floated in unit —— new york. some people were getting arrested. they had lighter regulation. here i am afraid it is imbalanced. you want to make sure it is clean, legal and decent and also making sure you have the right quality people in there, but at the same time, allowing flexibility without making sure people are having to endlessly carry out security checks to make sure that they are obeying all the rules all the time. the question is, how much detail do you need to go into that?— into that? justin, lovely to see you — into that? justin, lovely to see you as _ into that? justin, lovely to see you as ever. _ into that? justin, lovely to see you as ever. have - into that? justin, lovely to see you as ever. have a i into that? justin, lovely to i see you as ever. have a good week. that's return to venezuela.

—— let's return to venezuela, because as you have been hearing, the polls have closed in the country's elections with the opposition alleging widespread fraud. they are hoping to thwart president nicolas maduro in his push for a third term in office. despite its huge oil wealth, an ongoing economic crisis has seen millions leave the country that's been run for a quarter of a century by the socialist psuv party. hyperinflation has eroded peoples' savings and made basic supplies scarce — the rate peaked at almost 130,000% a year. but over the past year, it has fallen to 50% as the government has clamped down on lending and state spending. still, it's estimated 8 in 10 venezuelans live below the poverty line, earning less than $1.90 a day. eileen gavin is principal analyst for the americas at the global risk intelligence company, verisk maplecroft. good to have you on the programme. good morning. president maduro is claiming

victory, which was expected, would you say is the outcome? yes, it was. it doesn't really come as rise. —— come as a surprise. he has never really held an election he wasn't sure of winning. the result is 51.2 to him to 44.2 to his main competitors, so a seven percentage point differential. the opposition is already claiming fraud, as we said, and they will ask for a recount in coming days. the role of the military and the community will be crucial to ensure that the situation remains calm. 50. situation remains calm. so, what do _ situation remains calm. so, what do you _ situation remains calm. so, what do you think _ situation remains calm. so, what do you think will - situation remains calm. so, what do you think will happen next? after the previous election where it was a very similar scenario, election where it was a very similarscenario, he election where it was a very similar scenario, he won and there was accusations about fraud, etc, sanctions were placed on venezuela by the us and others. what will likely

happen this time do you think? the main aim of the metro government in this election is to secure of international legitimacy —— maduro. need to rehabilitate venezuela into the international economy, to restructure its $150 billion debt in default and to reinforce its position internationally. yesterday, it was a very notable effort by the government to portray this as a peaceful process, that everyone was able to vote and turn out, but there were no problems, and i think it is very much the mission going forward that this was a peaceful vote, forward that this was a peacefulvote, it forward that this was a peaceful vote, it was transparent by the opposition needs to accept that this was a legitimate loss and that things should progress. maduro will,

he has said tomorrow, begin talk with the opposition about a unity dialogue, which he has done several times before. that would be very much a way to try and push things forward and to get international acceptance of the position. at of course the opposition will, given the closeness of the result, look who did its heels in for a while. how long that will continue is debatable. just briefl , continue is debatable. just briefly, this _ continue is debatable. just briefly, this result, - continue is debatable. just briefly, this result, do you think we are looking at another five years similar to what we've just experienced for venezuelan people, what will change for them as a consequence of this? there is an effort i _ consequence of this? there is an effort i believe _ consequence of this? there is an effort i believe to - consequence of this? there is an effort i believe to try - consequence of this? there is an effort i believe to try to . an effort i believe to try to restore some form of competitive politics into the system. this is partly a

recognition by the regime that there is no willingness within latin america and externally for the current situation to continue. there will be some pressure potentially on the opposition now to come to the table, to attend this dialogue. the alternative of courses at the opposition refuses to that and that things continue and are polarised and an impasse situation. ~ are polarised and an impasse situation-— are polarised and an impasse situation. ~ ., ., ., ., situation. we have got to leave it there but _ situation. we have got to leave it there but we _ situation. we have got to leave it there but we appreciate - situation. we have got to leave it there but we appreciate your| it there but we appreciate your expertise on this. thank you for talking to us on the bbc. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news.

you are with business today with me, sally bundock. to asia now, because italy's prime minister giorgia meloni is in china where she has promised to relaunch cooperation with beijing. she made the announcement on sunday during a meeting

with china's premier, li qiang. ms meloni signed a three—year action plan aimed at improving trade ties after italy exited president xijinping's belt and road infrastructure investment scheme last year. let's go to our asia business hub. suranjana tewari is following this for us in singapore. tell us more. this is quite a hiuh tell us more. this is quite a high profile _ tell us more. this is quite a high profile visit _ tell us more. this is quite a high profile visit with - tell us more. this is quite a| high profile visit with giorgia meloni are to meet xi jinping and the number three in china public leadership hierarchy. while in china, the italian leader has been saying that the five—day trip is a demonstration of the will to begin a new phase between china and italy. it is quite a contrast to last year when italy pulled out of china's belt and road project, which was aimed at development and economic cooperation along the ancient silk road. it was the only g7 country that had signed up, and withdrew underreported us pressure over concerns about

beijing's economic reach. at the time, giorgia meloni's government said the deal had bought no benefit to italy, but now giorgia meloni reportedly sees chinese investment as a way to stimulate economic growth in italy. china is italy's biggest non—eu trading partner after the us, but it is heavily tilted in beijing's favour. on this trip, the two countries are already signed agreements on electric mobility and renewables, and the italian government is holding talks with chinese automakers to try and attract another major manufacturer to the country in addition to stilettos. on the chinese side, italian investment is worth around $60 billion and more than 1600 italian companies are active there. giving china's economic slowdown, it would make sense to reinvigorate such an important trading relationship for beijing as well.—

for bei'ing as well. thank you so for beijing as well. thank you so much- _ for beijing as well. thank you so much. see _ for beijing as well. thank you so much. see you _ for beijing as well. thank you so much. see you again - for beijing as well. thank you | so much. see you again soon. it's been more than 20 years since concorde touched down for the final time, and the age of supersonic travel came to an end. for the past ten years, a us start—up called boom supersonic has been planning to bring it back. boom wants to build a brand—new supersonic airliner at what it calls a superfactory in north carolina. it has now built a small test aircraft to refine its technology. at the farnborough airshow, our reporter theo leggett caught up with the company's boss, and asked him why the world needs supersonic travel. nobody wants to spend a lot of time on an aeroplane and everybody loved concord, marvellous technical accomplishment. the big problem was it was too expensive. 20,000 quid for a ticket, 100 feet to fill. economically, it wasn't the right proposition but everybody loved concord, and 60 years later, now we have new technology, carbon fibre composites, digital engineering, vastly improved

engines, now we can get the cost down of supersonic flight to the point that a lot more people can benefit stop over to one, that is what we call our first eleina, it united airlines have ordered, it will be more like flying business class. the quarters lesson on concord and then over two and three, faster and the cost will go down. the goal is for it is for everybody. nobody likes spending time on slow aeroplanes.— spending time on slow aerolanes. ., ., , aeroplanes. you have been around for _ aeroplanes. you have been around for ten _ aeroplanes. you have been around for ten years - aeroplanes. you have been around for ten years now . aeroplanes. you have been l around for ten years now and many people thought you were crazy in the beginning but you are still here and this year you have crossed some milestones. i you have crossed some milestones.— you have crossed some milestones. ., , ., ., ., milestones. i am proud of our progress _ milestones. i am proud of our progress over _ milestones. i am proud of our progress over the _ milestones. i am proud of our progress over the last - milestones. i am proud of our progress over the last ten - progress over the last ten years and we are the first independent company to build and fly a supersonicjet. the xp one. it and fly a supersonic 'et. the xp one. . , �* and fly a supersonic 'et. the xp one. .,, �* ., xp one. it hasn't gone supersonic _ xp one. it hasn't gone supersonic yet. - xp one. it hasn't gone supersonic yet. it - xp one. it hasn't gone i supersonic yet. it hasn't, xp one. it hasn't gone - supersonic yet. it hasn't, but it will this — supersonic yet. it hasn't, but it will this year. _ supersonic yet. it hasn't, but it will this year. it _ supersonic yet. it hasn't, but it will this year. it flew - supersonic yet. it hasn't, but it will this year. it flew in - it will this year. it flew in march, it will fly for the second time probably tomorrow. by second time probably tomorrow. by the time you are watching this, it will have flown and that puts us on track to meet supersonic by the end of the

year. supersonic by the end of the ear. , . supersonic by the end of the ear, , ., , ., supersonic by the end of the ear. , ., , ., ., supersonic by the end of the ear. , ., ., ., ~ year. getting a plane to mark across a huge _ year. getting a plane to mark across a huge amount - year. getting a plane to mark across a huge amount of - year. getting a plane to mark i across a huge amount of money. how are you going to get from where you are now into production?— where you are now into production? where you are now into roduction? ~ ., ., ., production? what we are doing is certainly _ production? what we are doing is certainly ferociously - is certainly ferociously difficult. aeroplanes are incredibly complex, expensive to develop, but what i deeply believe that small focused driven teams can do things that legacy players can't or won't do and can do it faster and better. we have already lent that. we breathe built supersonicjet with 50 people and not much money. as we play that forward, this is a multibillion dollar project but we have done a lodge, flown xp one, opened a super factory last month in north carolina, we took control of our own propulsion, we are controlling our own destiny with the engine and a faster and better. there is a lot of challenge still ahead of us. there is also a lot of challenge in the rearview mirror as well. boom supersonic. — rearview mirror as well. boom supersonic. the _ rearview mirror as well. boom supersonic, the ceo _ rearview mirror as well. boom supersonic, the ceo there i supersonic, the ceo there talking through the challenges.

before we go... here is a question for you. what do sales of lipstick tell us about the state of the economy? in the months after 9/11, estee lauder chairman leonard lauder noticed a marked uptick in sales of lipstick. he came to the conclusion that during an economic slump — people buy small luxuries to cheer themselves up and to feel better about themselves, hence 'the lipstick effect'. for years, cosmetics firms around the world have designated july 29 national lipstick day, when they offer promotions and deals on lipstick. but with the cost—of—living crisis still weighing on peoples' finances, does the 'lipstick affect�* still hold? maddie malone is senior beauty & personal care analyst at mintel. welcome to the programme. is the lipstick effect still a thing? the lipstick effect still a thin ? , , the lipstick effect still a thin? , , ~ the lipstick effect still a thin i ? , , . ., thing? yes, definitely. we have

forecasted _ thing? yes, definitely. we have forecasted just _ thing? yes, definitely. we have forecasted just over _ thing? yes, definitely. we have forecasted just over 996 - thing? yes, definitely. we have forecasted just over 996 of i forecasted just over 9% of growth for the uk beauty and personal care sector in 2024, and i think was that has been driven by inflation, i think it is a clear sign that the lipstick effect has come into play. one statistic that stuck with me is that more british people said they were willing to cut back spending in 2024 on things like takeaway than dining out compared to beauty products. i think consumers definitely recognise that feelgood factor that they get from buying and using beauty. also, you say it is a feelgood factor and i know lipstick is not seen as essential, but some beauty products, some would say men and women, they are an essential part of a regime and therefore they can't live without that they can forgo a takeaway. without that they can forgo a takeaway-— takeaway. yes, and i think particularly _ takeaway. yes, and i think particularly for _ takeaway. yes, and i think particularly for women i takeaway. yes, and i think particularly for women in l takeaway. yes, and i think. particularly for women in this instance, a lot of people are using their beauty grooming routines as a form of reaction, so those routines, rituals, products can really help women and men have that welcome

respite of more challenging. in the beauty sector today, is there special stuff going on? it is nationalistic day. rather some of these beauty companies open to crashing today in particular —— national lipstick day. i can't speak on an individual basis but there is a lot of activity going on. we know consumers _ lot of activity going on. - know consumers do get excited ahead of these qualifications as well, so i am sure there is as well, so i am sure there is a lot going on. as well, so i am sure there is a lot going on-_ as well, so i am sure there is a lot going on. al, in terms of li stick a lot going on. al, in terms of lipstick sales _ a lot going on. al, in terms of lipstick sales in _ a lot going on. al, in terms of lipstick sales in particular, i lipstick sales in particular, ai is used in ways it has not been before to really get people to buy lipstick, isn't it? , , ~ ., , it? yes, definitely. beauty firms are _ it? yes, definitely. beauty firms are leveraging i it? yes, definitely. beauty firms are leveraging a i it? yes, definitely. beauty firms are leveraging a lot l it? yes, definitely. beautyl firms are leveraging a lot of technology. i think it is a good thing in the case of i can now go online and try different lipsticks and experiment and i don't necessarily have to go to the store, which i think can be a good thing in terms of reducing product wastage, if i

tried that, i know it will likely work for me and i will not be disappointed when he arrives at my door. ok. not be disappointed when he arrives at my door. ok, thank ou for arrives at my door. ok, thank you forjoining _ arrives at my door. ok, thank you forjoining us. _ arrives at my door. ok, thank you forjoining us. good i arrives at my door. ok, thank you forjoining us. good to i you forjoining us. good to have you on the programme on national lipstick day. i have my own on —— mine on. of course. the bbc make—up department to a wonderfuljob at 4am every day. a few dreadful markets. we have the federal reserve in the us meeting for theirjuly meeting, all eyes on washington tuesday and wednesday, jerome powell and wednesday, jerome powell and his team. we have the bank of england as well meeting this week. in the case of both key central banks, no changes are expected or predicted this month. all thoughts are it will be autumnal rate cuts, hopefully. if we look at the next board, it reminds you where the us markets will start their trading day when they do begin a little later on wall street. loads of earnings from the likes of mehta, microsoft,

other big companies, some magnificent, seven stocks will be moving market this week. it is a really, really busy week. let's show you live pictures coming from venezuela from the party at the psc you where they are claiming victory for nicolas maduro —— farnborough -- pscu. stay with us here on bbc news. hello there. sunday was a very warm day. we had the sunshine far and wide, and we've got a few more days of dry weather and sunshine to come, but the heat is going to continue to build across england and wales. and, really, across the whole of western europe, temperatures are rising, the heat is pushing up from spain into france and for the olympics. that's the temperature anomaly chart. you can see for eastern europe, things may be a little cooler than normal. here at home, though, the heat is building underneath that area of high pressure. there is a weak weather front approaching

from the northwest, and that's bringing more cloud into scotland and northern ireland on monday. the odd light shower, perhaps, but most of any rain really is in the far northwest of scotland. the cloud will break in other parts of scotland, but the best of the sunshine will be for england and wales. just a bit of patchy fairweather cumulus. the winds will be light in england and wales. there will be some cooling sea breezes. there is a stronger breeze, though, blowing for scotland and northern ireland, where temperatures aren't changing much. it's still going to be warm for eastern scotland, but the heat is really concentrated on england and wales. inland temperatures in the southeast, 28 or 29 degrees. that weather front continues to weaken as it moves down into the high pressure overnight and into tuesday. just that sliver of cloud there. more sunshine to come for scotland and northern ireland on tuesday, the odd light shower in the far northwest. sunny skies on the whole for england and wales, a little bit hazy at times. and those temperatures continuing to rise, particularly towards the southeast of england, could make 31

or even 32 degrees here. quite different temperatures for scotland and northern ireland, and you can see the temperature difference overnight tuesday night into wednesday morning — an uncomfortable night for sleeping in the southeast, particularly in london. there's more sunshine and generally dry weather to come on wednesday. signs of one or two showers breaking out, particularly towards the southwest of england. this could be the first signs of some change. but ahead of that, it's still going to be a hot day through the midlands and the southeast. temperatures, 29, 30 degrees quite possible once again. things are changing, though, wednesday and through the rest of the week in particular, it's not going to be quite as warm. there's the chance of more cloud and some rain, which could be heavy and thundery. on wednesday night and through thursday, that moves its way northwards. and then after we start the week with high pressure, we're going to end the week with low pressure in the west.

good morning. welcome to breakfast with ben thompson and sally nugent. our headlines today... commentator: peaty in four. who's going to get the title? it is. oh, it's gone to martinenghi of italy. swimmer adam peaty misses out on olympic gold in paris by the smallest of margins. in my heart, i've won. these are happy tears cos i said to myself that i'd give it absolute best — give my absolute best every single day, and i have.

team gb also took a bronze on day 2, thanks to kimberley woods in the kayaking. and...there was drama in the tennis, as andy murray and dan evans survived five match points to reach the second round of the men's doubles. a gaping hole in the public finances. the chancellor is expected to say there's a £20 billion shortfall. and road and rail projects are set to be scrapped. a woman, who was seriously injured after being attacked while out walking her dog, has died in hospital. a man has been arrested on suspicion of murder. good morning. over the next couple of days it is going to be very warm or indeed hot across the uk. the highest temperatures will be in england and wales. tomorrow, some parts of the south east could reach 32 celsius. all of the details shortly.

it's monday, the 29th ofjuly.