the us federal reserve has signalled a possible rate cut in september, but the us inflation data, due to be released on wednesday, could force them to adjust their initial assessment. we'll also get a reading on the chinese economy on thursday, with the release of several key metrics for the same month — retail sales, industrial production, unemployment and house prices. portfolio managerjun bei liu explains why the market volatility we saw last week is here to stay. we are going to be very, very much data dependent, and markets now pricing in us with a 50 basis point rate cut in september, so any data points that challenged that view is going to drive more volatility. we await eagerly to see what the inflation data might look like, but that is going to have quite a significant ramification for the rest of the world as well, because every central bank looks forward to what the fed is going to do and then follow suit. speaking of the fed,

what do you think the course of action will be? there is some thought the volatility we have seen is in some part driven by the fed waiting too long to drop interest rates. i think the fed has made it reasonably clear it is coming, and i think the 50 basis points in september is a pretty good bet. i think very soon they will start to talk more doveishly leading up to that cut. i think after all with many years of experience of seeing the federal reserve really giving into what the financial markets are looking for, so we are reasonably confident that rate cut is coming. retail sales data from china, us consumer prices are all due out this week. what are you expecting from those numbers and how will that impact policymakers in both the us and china? i think in terms of the us, we are expecting the inflation data will be weaker, and we do expect that to continue to pave the path for the fed to cut the rate in september. now, with china, the retail

sales is expected to be weaker, given what we have heard from so many corporates already from europe, in terms of luxury brands, about how weak the consumer is. so we do expect to continue to show weakness. policy makers in china have made it quite clear they will continue to stimulate the consumer part of the economy if they need to. so there needs to be more stimulus to come through to stabilise the consumer and boost confidence. let's turn now to bangladesh, where mohammad yunus and his caretaker government are facing serious economic challenges since they were sworn in last week. the incoming leader will have his hands full, reviving businesses that were closed down because of the protests, as well as finding solutions to the youth unemployment that had plagued the previous government. cornell university professor kaushik basu who was also a former economic adviser to the indian government explains what the interim government's top priorites will be. he will have two priorities — one is the absolutely immediate, which is the little disruptions in the market caused by the last month of disruptions of protests, internet shutdowns, which have

been affecting the economy, and he will have to attend to that immediately, so it is put back on trail, so that bangladesh's trade, export of garments, apart from other things, get back into shape. but he will have two, a bit more intermediate, problems, and one you referred to already. youth unemployment and unemployment has gone very high, and inflation has been about 9.6%, extremely high. bangladesh is used to about half that rate, so it had gone up. these two are not something that can be counted these two are not something that can be countered within weeks. they will require the central bank, the ministry of finance, to get involved in a strategic plan is to get the country out of this. earlier, the central bank was responding a bit too much to the call of the government

virtually printing money, releasing dollars onto the market, which was cutting down on the foreign exchange reserves, this will have to be corrected, but this needs a plan. the immediate problem is to put the market back in place so that trade takes place, money begins to flow, foreign exchange reserves for bangladesh had gone up a few years ago to $46, $47 billion. it's come tumbling down. fortunately, the multilateral organisations, most prominently the imf, is there, and that immediately creates some comfort, that money is not going to run dry, the imf is going to step in, should the need arise. but all of this is a short window. it is an opportunity, because the authoritarian regime, which i think is the primary reason why this took place, it was not the economy, the economy was a trigger. fortunately, it was really

fortunate for bangladesh, that the authoritarian leader has gone, and the time has come to restore the economy, and confidence, and the economy, let me, steve, also point out, over the last ten years, give up the last two years, over the last say eight years, ten years before that, the economy was doing very well. bangladesh was growing extremely well, but capital income, neck to neck with india, which was unimaginable ten years ago. so the task now is an immediate task that the country has to go back to with the interim government. global youth unemployment levels are at its lowest level in 15 years. that's according to a new report by the international labour organization. however, not all regions have recovered from the impact of the covid—i9 pandemic. the middle east and south east asia, for example, saw higher unemployment rates last year than in 2019. the report also warned that more young women than men are not in employment or education. the chinese government has

issued wide—ranging guidelines on achieving what it calls a comprehensive green transformation over the next decade. officials have been told to focus on environmental protection and integrating sustainable development into agriculture, transport and energy. the plans envisage increasing the use of renewable power and electric vehicles, and making transport networks carbon neutral. carbon emissions in china appear on course to decrease in 2024, potentially meaning they've peaked years earlier than promised. speaking of china, one major sector of the economy has not been hurt by lacklustre consumer spending — smartphones. according to a new report by technology consulting firm, canalys, domestic brands, like vivo and oppo, are dominating the market. in fact, for the first time, the top five brands in china are all local, with apple's iphone being pushed to sixth place. amber liu, one of the co—authors of the report, explains what's causing the iphone to lose out against local vendors.

with the intensified competition from local vendors leads to apple recent statement from the top five members of the market. huawei has seen a very strong comeback since september 2023, and it has disrupted all leading benders�*s market especially how we started to recover from their flagship portfolio, —— all leading band or�*s. and the other local bands including 0pp°1 other local bands including 0ppo, vivo, they are advancing their high—end strategies and keep refreshing the high end offerings and introducing this breakthrough in innovation, make ai smartphones, to the market for the users to upgrade or switch to their brand —— vendor's. these facts mainly posed pressure on iphone sales this year. posed pressure on iphone sales this ear. ., ., �* this year. you mentioned ai, it is increasingly _ this year. you mentioned ai, it is increasingly important - this year. you mentioned ai, it is increasingly important in - is increasingly important in smartphone strategies of these countries, but the us and europe have been trying to

limit china's access to ai smart chips, so how have local smartphone makers been able to stay competitive? we smartphone makers been able to stay competitive ?_ stay competitive? we know that china ai is _ stay competitive? we know that china ai is a _ stay competitive? we know that china ai is a special _ china ai is a special ecosystem, they are not a completely closed or completely open ecosystem, and it provides only advantages to local brands, to build compliance on al features, but china is not ai features, but china is not unique regarding the local regulations because the other markets, they also have these local requirements for vendors to meet. so there are a lot of local suppliers like large language model suppliers and cloud computing suppliers like alibaba, so smartphone vendor are collaborating on the chinese market, just like they do with 0ppo, 0penai and google in the overseas market. similar business models. us short seller, hindenburg research, has made some new allegations against the head of securities and exchange board of india, madhabi buch.

according to the firm, buch and her husband are holding offshore funds in bermuda and mauritius that were also used by the adani group. the allegations call into question potential conflicts of interest, as the regulatory body that buch heads is currently investigating the adani group for corporate fraud. buch, her husband, the indian regulator, as well as the adani group, have denied the allegations. walt disney experiences division laid out an ambitious growth road map over the weekend, as it tries to drive customers back to its theme parks. the company announced plans for four new cruise ships and six new theme lands, including one dedicated to new disney villains at the magic kingdom in florida. disney has seen slowing attendance at its domestic theme parks, as customers cut back on spending — a trend it expects to continue over the next few quarters. speaking of disney — "deadpool and wolverine" made box office history on sunday — becoming the second film this year to have grossed over a billion dollars, with the first being inside out 2. the massive success of both

these films will be a boost for disney, which had a string of losses last year. and that's it for this edition of business today. thanks for watching. i will see you at the same times tomorrow. goodbye for now.

hello and welcome to sportsday, with me, chetan pathak. coming up on the programme — au revoir, paris 2024 — after over two weeks

of competition, the olympics come to a close. close to 1,000 medals have been handed out, as team usa win the last gold on offer, taking them top of the medal table. and after two bronzes, sifan hassan finally has her hands on gold, after winning the marathon in an olympic record time. welcome along, thank you forjoining us, as the paris 2024 olympics come to an end. it all began over a fortnight ago — and after 32 sports, 329 events and 987 medals — the games finished on sunday with a dramatic women's basketball final which changed who finished top of the medal table. more on that to come but first, this is how the closing ceremony played out

in the stade de france.