and remnants of the mercenary wagner group, and then you watch as ukraine launches an extraordinary offensive inside russia. what do you do? and what does the belarusian opposition do? well, my guest is pavel latushka, a leading figure in that opposition. how is the ukraine war impacting the struggle for regime change inside belarus? pavel latushka in warsaw, welcome to hardtalk.

thank you for having me here today. it is a pleasure to talk to you. now, you are a leading figure in the struggle for regime change inside your home country, belarus. to what extent is that struggle today inextricably tied to the fate of ukraine and ukraine's war with russia? you know that of course we are... we are trying to help as we can ukraine to win in this terrible war. for us belarusians, it is also a motivation that ukraine will win. and if ukraine win, we will free our belarus. it's one of the main points of our strategy for democratic forces. ukrainians�* victory creates preconditions for changing the situation in belarus.

the success of the ukrainians in the... for example, today, we can see the situation in the kursk region — it may provoke a political crisis in the kremlin, and victory of ukraine can provoke the political crisis in kremlin. and this does not mean that putin will be overthrown, but putin will be forced to fire a number of generals, and this is a signal to russian elites. this is the first time since world war the second that military action involving a foreign state is being fought on russian territory... no doubt, no doubt, sir. it is historic, and the whole world is watching. but ijust want to be clear about one thing you just said to me. are you saying to me that right now, as you see it — that is, as a fighter for fundamental change in your own country, belarus — you think that ukraine's victory over putin's russia is, to use your word, a precondition now for

change inside belarus? of course, the changes in my country depends on belarusians. it's... future of my country is in the hands of belarusian society. but of course, when we are looking at the situation in europe, how it's developed now, it's very important to achieve this victory, victory of ukraine in this aggression war, because lukashenko in this war, he is a co—aggressor — co—aggressor supporting russian federation, supporting putin. and for us, it's also very important to struggle against aggressors. last year, the president of lithuania — of course, a close friend of you in the belarusian opposition — the president of lithuania said this, "we no longer see belarus "as it was even in 2020, "at the time of that disputed election." he said, "it is no longer an independent country. "it is basically another

province of the russian "federation." do you worry when you hear people put it like that? yes, i am worried, absolutely. of course, we are struggling for freedom. but simultaneously, we are struggling for independence, for renovation of our independence of our country. lukashenko lost our elections, last elections, in 2020, and now he is absolutely on the hands of putin. and he is like putin's puppet. and today he is like a manager in the territory of belarus. he is managing internal process. but his role in the foreign policy, in the military policy is not so active, so he relays...the ideas, he relays the tasks from the putin side. and today, it's. .. of course, it's a threat for our independence, it's a challenge for all democratic forces, for all belarusians to struggle for our independence. it's very difficult,

i understand, but we have a strategy. right. our strategy, first of all, to support independent mass media, and we are asking our western partners to support our strategy. independent mass media is the first point. the second one, it is support of cultural identity. russians want belarusians to become russians too — the use of the belarusian language in belarus automatically. . .associating with the opposition. when, for example, i was a minister, i was the only member of the government who spoke belarusian publicly and non—publicly. the third point of our strategy is support and recognition of our democratic institutions. it's an unprecedented situation. we created three institutions, the president—elect, svetlana tikhanovskaya — we're supporting her — the united transitional cabinet — i'm deputy head in this united transitional cabinet, executive body of democratic forces, and the coordination council as a representative body.

we had last may elections organised out of the country. but we can organise it only out of our country. so we have a representative body. as you just referenced it, you know lukashenko well because you actually worked for him. you were an ambassador inside the belarusian government for many years. you also served as culture ministerfor a while. you know him well. do you believe there is a possibility that he could go beyond his current strategy of being a close ally and partner of putin and become directly involved militarily in the warjust over the border in ukraine? could he do that? no. it's impossible. i'm sure, 100%, that lukashenko don't want to send belarusian troops in ukraine. lukashenko will not send the belarusian army to ukraine, not because he loves ukraine

or ukrainian people. he is afraid of the internal crisis in the society. i want to emphasise that 85% of belarusians, according to the last polls, are against the participation of belarusian army in the war. so this is... really? actually, i've seen polls from the chatham house think—tank which suggest that there's a much more deeply divided popular opinion inside belarus, with roughly 36%, 38% of belarusians expressing sympathy for russia and a similar number expressing sympathy for ukraine. it's not about sympathy for russia or ukraine, it's about if belarusians want belarusian troops to go to the war, to go to the ukrainian territory, to become a real aggressor. of course, in accordance with international law, lukashenko today, his regime's co—aggressing in this war,

but he don't want to send belarusian army to the territory of ukraine because it creates huge troubles inside of the country. it creates a trigger for him. so he will never do this, i'm sure, 99%. all right. one other point on the military situation. we know that there are thousands of exiled belarusian fighters who are fighting alongside the ukrainian army, ultimately taking their orders from the ukrainian army, fighting against the russian forces. the kalinouski regiment, they are known as. i want to be clear — are you in the belarusian opposition absolutely supportive of that military role for belarusian volunteers? and do you see this force, the kalinouski force, as some sort of embryonic army that ultimately will become an army of resistance fighting against lukashenko�*s forces

inside your country? yes, you are right. more than 1,000 belarusian volunteers have fought and are fighting in ukraine. they are belarusian heroes for us, for me personally. they fight for the liberation of ukraine, they fight for territorial integrity of ukraine, but they are also dreaming about the liberation of belarus. the largest military unit is kalinouski regiment, and we democratic forces — diasporas, belarusian diasporas in many countries, also in great britain, for example — support the belarusian volunteers in any way we can. yeah, but my question is, do you want them, in the long run, to be a military force that can challenge lukashenko�*s forces inside your country? today, we will have a coordination council meeting, and during this meeting, we plan to agree that the new

representative in our united transitional cabinet, as the executive body of democratic forces of belarus, will be ex—volunteer of kalinouski regiment. so he will be one of the members of our cabinet in exile. so we of course think about the perspective. we are thinking about the strategy. in the future, they can be a base for the army in independent, democratic belarus. i just wonder whether, as you tell me that, that you're embracing the kalinouski regiment and that maybe that would signal a long—term militarisation of the opposition — is it, in a way, a recognition that where you stand at the moment as the belarus opposition is in a position of failure? having appeared to win the election in 2020, so many of you were forced into exile. those mass demonstrations on the streets were repressed and no longer happen. and four years on, to be honest

with you, to the outside world, it looks as though repression has won and the anti—lukashenko opposition has lost. no, we're not lost. we are still struggling. we still have motivation. we have our institution. we created them. three institutions, as i said you. president—elect, we support svetla na tikhanovskaya as the leader of the democratic movement of belarus. we have executive body, cabinet, we have representative body, coordination council. we have a lot of initiatives... again, but with respect, with respect, you're outside the country, you're in exile. and those who remained inside the country to fight the political fight, they're all locked up. there are more than 1,300 political prisoners, including some journalists and artists. the repression has worked. you call it a totalitarian regime, but surely lukashenko has learned from the putin

playbook this repression does work. but of course, if we are united, we have a perspective. if we are together, we will change the situation, our country. we can wait and look how it's developed or we can interfere, we can be active. of course, i can tell you... ..i cannot tell you about the partisan movement in belarus. we have activists inside of the country, many of them. and... sorry, when you say "partisans", you mean people who are prepared to commit acts of violence? uh, it's... it's peaceful protests, protesters, peaceful activists. we are not sending them leopards or f—igs. we want to have this organisation inside of the country to be ready in the crucial moment, to be active inside of the country. um, it's very important. but for us, of course, it's a great problem, a problem of political prisoners.

of course, we are fighting for the life of every political prisoner, but there is not a single key to the doors behind which political prisoners are held. uh, lukashenko, um, repeats the same story. we had political prisoners before. i remember when i was an ambassador, i participated in negotiations in 2000, 2014, 2015 about freedom for political prisoners. i am sure that today it's very important to use pressure and diplomacy, but... but to put it bluntly... to put it bluntly, i'm going to quote the political analyst alexander kloskowski. he says tikhanovskaya, that is svetlana tikhanovskaya, the leader that you've referred to, who claims, of course, that she won the 2020 election, he says she's gradually being forgotten inside the country. people have to live in the here and now, and she is not here.

and it also has to be said there are some indications that some of the political prisoners, like viktor babaryka and others, feel that you and she have spent too much time doing your diplomacy, your politicking and your networking in brussels and washington dc, and haven't spent enough time addressing the needs of your people back home. but we have a totalitarian system inside of the country. which way we can be active in belarus? it's impossible in belarus to organise any manifestations, any actions. it's prohibited by regime. we have no more. we have no independent mass media in belarus. they, all of them, are liquidated. we have no opposition political parties in the country. 11 of them were liquidated. we have no ngos which cooperate with the european union, great britain, the united states, canada. lukashenko liquidated 1,700 ngos.

how you can imagine for us to be active today in such difficult situation inside of the country. but as i said you, we have activists, still have activists, a lot of people who want to change situation inside of the country. politicisation of the society is also very important for us. that is why lukashenko will announce, near future, the next campaign of his renomination on the post of president. that is why, for us, it's important to have our own strategy on that. ..on that period. i said already, you served as a minister under lukashenko. you're now one of his most prominent critics and opponents. i dare say he regards you with deep personal bitterness as some sort of traitor to him. you've said that you have faced a whole series of different threats over the past four years.

do you live in fear in warsaw? oh, it's a very difficult and personal question. i know that lukashenko wants to kill me. one day he said to me that, "i will... "i will kill you by my own hands if you will "be against me." he said to me personally. so to risk... it's a great risk for me. uh, lukashenko sentenced me for 18 years. uh, he, uh, organised repressions against my daughter, my family. i received more than... it's 100 signals from, from everywhere that they want to punish me, that they want to kidnap me. 100 death threats. kidnapping threats. also, they prepared special videos of me being taken in a car

boot out of poland. they even managed, can you imagine to film the house where i lived in warsaw and publish photos from the flat? there was a story in telegram channels how they cut off my head on the bank of the vistula river in warsaw. the goal is to demotivate me. but i will tell you honestly. in 2020, i made a conscious choice, and i do not regret it. be honest with me, mr latushka. you know the europeans very well. you were a belarus ambassador in various western capitals. right now, are you disappointed with the level of support or lack of support that you've seen from western nations toward you in the belarus opposition? yes, i am disappointed. fouryears ago, i remember i received a letter. i don't remember the author's name, but he described something very important.

"if you want to win," it was written in this letter, "you fight." you must base it on the rule of law. and it's crucial to bring lukashenko to justice. forfouryears, me, my team, democratic forces of belarus, have been dedicated to this mission. and assassination attempt plans against me, death threats for me, for members of my team. since 2020, lukashenko has committed so many crimes — crimes against humanity, against belarusian people, killings, rapes, kidnappings, hundreds of thousands of suffered repressions and hundreds of thousands have been deported, bela rusians. and what about accountability? lukashenko — co—aggressor in the war against ukraine. and what about accountability? lukashenko organised a migration crisis in the border with european union. hijacking of the plane. and what about accountability? that is why my appeal today for the democratic states, for democratic partners, let's bring responsibility for lukashenko.

let's, uh, issue a warrant list for him. it's very important. if i may, i'm sure eu leaders and the administration in washington would say, "look, we've put rounds of different "targeted sanctions on lukashenko�*s regime, "and we've actually answered the calls from people "like you to widen the sanctions." and then, when we do that, sometimes you start to complain, saying, "oh, no, the sanctions aren't right "because they're hitting ordinary belarusian people." your messaging on something like sanctions seems to me to be rather confused. yes, i'm a coordinator of sanctions policy in the united transitional cabinet. i know very well the situation. and it's also important to, to treat the belarusian people the same...not to treat, not to treat... ..sorry, belarusian people, uh, the same as russians. the majority of russians we know support the war and putin, while belarusians

do not support the war and lukashenko. sanctions should be targeted against the regime. i do not absolutise the tool of sanctions, but they are on the key of tools of pressure. in 2022, our partners made a mistake by not implementing similar sanctions against both russia and lukashenko�*s regime, as we suggested. as a result, belarus became a significant loophole for russia to circumvent sanctions. so it's a problem of effectiveness. but to be clear, do you or do you not want the economic isolation of belarus? pressure, not isolation. not isolate belarusian people. not close cross—border points for belarusian people. mobility for belarusians, it's very important. it's priority for democratic forces of belarus. more visas and not close cross—border points, but pressure on regime, economic pressure. it is one, among others, effective instruments.

before we end, i want to bring it back to the political process inside your country. you referred to the 2025 presidential election, when one can only assume, given his nature, that lukashenko will run again. i mean, he's basically had 30 years in power. we see no reason to think he wants to stop now. so what are your conditions for being a part of a political process in belarus, looking at 2025? in 2025, there will not be real elections. lukashenko wants to reappoint himself. in belarus, president candidates who planned to run in 2020 are still in prison — viktor babaryka, sergei tikhanovsky, they are still in prison. so i cannot imagine the situation when in belarus we have no independent mass media, we have no opposition parties, we have no ngos,

democratic orfree ngos. so which way we can organise today in belarus elections? it will be, electoral campaign, lukashenko�*s personal electoral campaign. but we held a conference of democratic forces, several weeks ago in vilnius. and during this conference, we signed the platform, 2025. and we want to have a common strategy for all democratic forces. we haven't made a final decision yet, but my position as a politician and the position of my group in coordination council is to use these so—called elections to politically mobilise society, safely, and to vote against all candidates. you talk of political mobilisation, but should i take it from everything you've said to me that you think it is highly unlikely that lukashenko can be removed from power as long as putin is firmly in power in moscow?

let's start from lukashenko, and it's my strategy for our european partners, for american partners, if we want to change the situation in our region, let's start from lukashenko. let's show putin, on the... on the fact of lukashenko, how effective can be different instruments of international partners against such dictators as lukashenko and putin. but a very important question. it's a subjectivity of belarusian nation. we want to have, again, to rebuild subjectivity for bela rusian people. it will be crucial for the future of independence of belarus and my country. pavel latushka, we have to end there. i thank you very much forjoining me on hardtalk. thank you.

hello there. tuesday wasn't as hot or as humid, but still with some sunshine across norfolk and suffolk before we got a few light showers, temperatures reached a very warm 29 degrees. other parts of the uk have cooled down a bit already, and it's still quite mixed through the rest of the week. there'll be some sunshine at times, but we're also going to find some spells of rain, and our weather essentially is going to be coming in from the atlantic. at the moment things have slowed down a bit and this weather front still bringing some rain early in the morning, particularly across the midlands. but a sunny start and a chilly start in scotland. some sunshine for northern ireland. it will cloud over here in the afternoon

and later in the day into western scotland. but more sunshine develops across northern england, wales and the southwest. and even though we've got more cloud, the midlands towards the southeast, that should tend to thin and break up a little bit. we will trigger a few showers in the southeast in the afternoon. it's not going to be as warm here as it was on tuesday, of course, 23 or 2a degrees and elsewhere, those temperatures very similar to what we had on tuesday. so our weather is coming in from the atlantic, and this is the next weather system to bring some wind and rain in from the north west. and it could be quite wet through much of thursday across scotland and northern ireland. this band of rain is only moving slowly into northern england and wales. it's going to be late in the day before we see some sunshine, but through the midlands, towards the southeast it may well be a dry day with more broken cloud we've got a chance for things to warm up again. temperatures could reach as high as 27 degrees, but for scotland and northern ireland, it's likely to be a cooler day on thursday. that rain is slowly moving its way southwards, and that weather front will eventually take some

rain into more southern parts of england. it could hang around for a bit on friday, we're likely to find the rain tending to move away from the southwest, but the southeast it could be a bit more of a struggle. that rain could still be around into the afternoon at least more cloud. we've got sunshine elsewhere once again until you reach the far northwest, with a bit of rain coming in here again as the breeze tends to pick up. so temperatures scotland and northern ireland 19 degrees at best. 0therwise our top temperature further south 23 or 2a celsius. i think it's those sort of temperatures that we'll see over the weekend. so not a hot weekend, but it looks like a fairly decent weekend. most places will be dry with some sunshine. just a few showers, perhaps towards the northwest.

live from london, this is bbc news. president biden has urged israel and hamas to reach a new ceasefire in gaza, saying it could deter iran from attacking israel. ukraine continues to push through russian territory in the biggest cross border attack since the war began. footage shows the devestation in greece following recent wildfires on the outskirts of athens, which have now been brought under control.

hello, i'm sally bundock. we begin the middle east were diplomats are working towards peace while hoping to avoid a wider regional conflict. the us government has stepped up efforts to reach a ceasefire between israel and hamas in gaza. a deal that's seen as a way to avoid an escalation of the conflict, involving iran. the government in tehran has dismissed calls from the uk and other western countries to refrain from retaliation against israel for the killing of hamas leader ismail haniyeh in tehran last month. during a meeting on the un security council — which was punctuated by accusations — the us ambassador explained what washington was hoping to archive. the united states overall goal remains to turn the temperature down in the region, to deter

and defend against any