sparking hopes that a cut in the cost of borrowing could be around the corner. the us consumer price index rose by 2.9% in the year tojuly, down from 3% injune. most of this increase was due to a pick—up in housing costs. energy prices were unchanged in the month, while food price rose by 0.2%. this data comes at a time when there are concerns that the inflationary crisis era interest rates, which remain in place in the us, could cause a recession. it raises hopes of a response from the us federal reserve soon. so says doubleline's deputy chief investment officer, jeff sherman. yeah, i mean it's set up quite nicely for the fed to start the easing cycle. and right now the market kind of is saying you're either going to get 25 or 50 basis points of cuts. it's kind of a coin flip

between the two right now. and as you pointed out, the inflation report really is accretive to this whole story here. and so the fed themselves had said that the monetary policy is tight, that they want to get closer to kind of that neutral rate. and they're going to start that in september. and so whether or not they cut, you know, three quarters of a percent or a percent throughout the remainder of the year remains to be seen. but they will be data dependent. but this definitely sets it up with today's inflation report. jeff, what do you make of the concerns that there are that the us could be heading into a recession? do you see it as a risk or a likelihood? well, i think it's a risk out there, but i don't think it's for certain at this point. and what you saw was the market was a little offsides. there was a lot of crowded positioning, and essentially the bond market is just waiting for another shoe to drop. and although we're talking about inflation, the key metric that kind of set off these

fears about 12 days ago was the jobs report. and so right now we know the fed is focussed on the dual mandate. they have to get price stability, but they also want to maintain some level of full employment. and so the unemployment rate going up in the lastjobs report made people a bit nervous in the marketplace. and so a lot of that unwound starting last monday. by the time the us market opened, we got service data. and that service data was pretty constructive. and in fact, when you look at the service data within the inflation, it is ticking up again, albeit really driven by the housing market, as you pointed out as well. so in general, it does look like there is some robustness. but tomorrow will be a big day because we get retail sales in the us. and so given that how heavy the consumer is in the us and a big driver of the overall gdp number, that will be a very important number to watch tomorrow. here in the uk, inflation ticked upwards injuly because of higher energy prices. consumer price inflation in the uk is now 2.2%.

it had been right on the bank of england's 2% target in may and june. is this cause for alarm? that's what i asked jackie bowie, head of europe at chatham financial. i mean, the slight rise that you've seen, as you see, was predicted. and much of that has come just from what we call the base effect. so there's been upward pressure in household energy bills, very much influenced by the ofcom price cap we have here in the uk. so as we look at those year on year numbers, you just get this kind of what looks like a bit of an oddity, but it was fully priced in and really what the market was expecting in terms of where that would come out for the inflation number. so in terms of other things that the market is expecting, we've already had one cut in the cost of borrowing this year. that was the first since the recent inflationary crisis pushed up the cost of borrowing. some are saying this could lead the bank of england, or prompt

the bank of england to cut rates again in september. what are your thoughts? what are your expectations? yeah, well, the market is still pricing in two further interest rate cuts this year, with one in september and then one before we get to the end of the year. so that 25 basis points for september is not completely in the bag. but certainly after the announcement this morning, i think there seems to be more expectation from the market that that next cut will come to take us from 5% to 4.75%. the key thing in the inflation number that the bank of england had been worried about to date is actually in the services inflation. and if we look at the underlying figures that were reported this morning, we've seen that services inflation moderate a little further again. so that would lead you to believe that the bank of england have a pathway to cut interest rates again in september. this weekend, indonesia will hold its first major event at what will become its new capital city. presidentjoko widodo wants to replace jakarta,

which he says is polluted, overcrowded and sinking into the ground with a new modern economic hub called nusantara, built from scratch in the rainforests of borneo. but the project, which is one of the most ambitious of its kind in history, has been dogged by setbacks, a lack of investment and the firing of top officials. nick marsh was invited by the indonesian government to take a look. in the heart of one of asia's last great rainforests, indonesia's president wants to carve out a new future for his country — a green, smart megacity, bigger than london, far from the chaos of jakarta and a homage to indonesia's ascent on the global stage. ambitious? that's an understatement. and failure? well, that doesn't seem to be an option. if you said it's impossible for me,

no, it's ambitious, but it's possible. the momentum is there. over the past two years, swathes ofjungle have been cleared to make way for new roads and buildings, wiping away the past and pushing indonesia towards modernity. it's only when you get here that you can see the sheer scale of this project. there's a sense of real excitement in indonesia. you can feel it. you can also feel the tension, though. by now, this place should have been ready to welcome its first residents. but only the very basics have been finished so far. the long—promised foreign investment needed to pay for it still hasn't materialised. the question some have asked is — does indonesia really need this? they're trophy cities, they're trophy projects that particular politicians want to have tied to their name and their legacy. these projects are extremely costly to build, and when it

comes to the benefit, the benefit goes mainly to big developers and the political elites that have clientelistic relationships to those big developers. right now, the only people who live here are the indigenous inhabitants of this land. thousands of people like dalia have been told that they, like their rainforests, must make way for the sake of progress. translation: i'm - struggling to stay sane. i have no peace. i haven't even been paid for my land yet. where will my children grow up now? where will we live ? presidentjoko widodo paid a visit recently. this place is a totem to his ten years in charge of the world's fourth most—populous country. but he faces a race against time. his term comes to an end in october, and the new president seems lukewarm on someone else's multi—billion dollar vision. this country will have

to overcome more than politics, though, to pull this off, indonesia will have to defy history. nick marsh, bbc news, borneo. the swiss banking giant ubs has reported bumper profits of $1.11; billion for the period from april tojune, surpassing analysts�* expectations. it's the first time it's reported since integrating its one—time rival, credit suisse which it rescued from collapse earlier this year. the process of integration continues, ubs says it's now entering the next phase of realising further cost, capital and tax benefits. so, how challenging and how profitable has the integration been? a question forjohann scholz, a banking analyst at morningstar in amsterdam. i think one should be careful not to focus too much on the bottom line number. there's quite a lot of counting

noise in the results, but i think it's fair to say the best way to probably look at it would be to go into the operating divisions. and it's fair to say that the investment banking business definitely exceeded expectations quite a bit. so i think in line with what we've seen from the other investment banks, both, both sides of the, of the atlantic, where we've really seen investment banks benefiting from increased volatility in markets which tend to lead to wider spreads and also more client activity. and then the other two big business units, the global wealth management business also actually performed in line with expectations. we're starting to see the impact of lower, potentially lower interest rates starting to feed through. and then also the swiss private banking business or commercial and commercial banking, i should say, business

also sort of performing in line with expectations. and johan, the bank says itself more cost savings among other savings from the integration it says are yet to be realised. does that directly translate into potentially more jobs that will be will be cut? yes. i think there's probably still some some job cuts to come, although i think, yeah, the most of it has been targeted now. but ubs is looking to take out about 13 billion of costs which if you kind of look at the old credit suisse cost base, it's about 60% of credit suisse's cost base that they're looking to take out. and they've achieved about half of those cost savings now. europe's biggest tour operator tui performed better than expected in the third quarter of the year,

boosted by strong bookings for summer holidays, a resurgence in package holidays and the collapse of one of its main rivals in germany. summer bookings were 6% ahead of last year. tui said that at a time when many consumers�* spending power was under pressure, that they still prioritised their holidays. the confectionary giant mars, which also makes brands such as m&m's and snickers, is poised to buy the company that makes pringles and cheez—its. the financial news agency reuters says that a $30 billiondeal is close to being finalised by mars to acquire kellanova, the savory snack company which was recently split off from kellogs. the us department ofjustice is reportedly considering the break—up of google as one option, after a recent ruling about its monopolistic behaviour. it would be an extreme option but one that is being considered following the landmark ruling earlier this month which found that "google is a monopolist, and it has acted as one to maintain its monopoly." let's take a look at the markets.

the day we learnt us inflation dipped below 3% for the first time in three years, the markets are liking it, the ftse is a i.5%. that is your business today, until next time, goodbye.

german prosecutors have reportedly issued an arrest warrant for a ukrainian diver, suspected of helping to blow up the nord stream gas pipeline almost two years ago. two large underwater explosions were recorded and four large gas leaks detected on the pipeline off the coast of denmark. the suspect was believed to have been living in poland but left for ukraine before he could be detained. the german authorities haven't confirmed the arrest warrant. two nord stream pipelines carried russian gas to germany under the baltic sea and were a controversial symbol of berlin's energy dependence on moscow. they were targeted in a series of explosions seven months after russia launched its full—scale invasion of ukraine.

washington and moscow have blamed each other for sabotage. let's speak to our correspondent damien mcguinness in berlin. tell us more about this arrest warrant. as you say, german officials here i talk to i spoke to a spokesperson, she would not confirm whether it was correct that my colleague in warsaw talked to polish prosecutors and they said in poland officials said that they had indeed received a european arrest warrant from germany and that does mean really that these reports appear to be true. a ukrainian citizen who apparently was an experienced diver, he had worked as a diving instructor, he was reportedly part of a team of ukrainian divers who were hired a german yacht and sailed off into the

baltic sea and that is