voice-over: this is bbc news. we'll have the headlines for you at the top of the hour, which is straight after this programme. we're going to talk about the polls. they're interesting. they are suggesting a real, proper change in the way this race looks. a change from trump being really ahead in not only nationally, but also, in the swing states — the ones where the election will be decided — to harris being not exactly ahead, but on level—pegging, and that is a very big change. it's a change that the democrats are celebrating. it's a change that trump and his people are worried

about, and they're saying they've got their own polls they're going to see soon. we have some very good polls coming out today, ijust heard. despite all of the fake publicity about this radical left person from san francisco. how's san francisco doing? not like... booing not like north carolina. no, we have some very good polls coming out, so that's good. you know, considering the fact that they...what they do, i mean, what they do, what the fake news is able to do, and yet we're leading. and let them have their convention, and who knows how that's going to turn out! ok, so no fakery, no nonsense. what are the polls actually telling us? welcome to americast. americast. americast from bbc news. hello. it's sarah here, and i am back in the bbc�*s washington bureau. and it'sjustin, in the worldwide headquarters of americast, in london, england. now, justin, i don't think

you're going to believe what i'm about to tell you. i find it difficult to believe myself. one month ago today, i was in milwaukee for the first day of the republican national convention. and you'll remember well, we talked all through that week about how ascendant donald trump looked after that assassination attempt, how the party was jubilant. it looked as though he was absolutely cruising to victory in november. and in that one short month, everything has turned on its head. our americasters know, of course, what's happened — joe biden stepped aside, kamala harris assumed the nomination — but none of us could have predicted just what an astonishing ride it's been. of course, she's up in the polls, but the whole mood of the campaign has changed. she's sunny and optimistic. donald trump looks snarly and bad—tempered. suddenly, she's the youthful candidate and she's the future, and he looks a little bit old—fashioned and backward—looking. it's turned on its head, justin.

yeah. someone was saying to me that the...the ghost of frailty was hanging over biden and trump, and eventually, that ghost did for biden. but it hasn't left the stage. it's doing now for trump. and i thought that was such an interesting point, actually, that the business of the two men being too old and just too out of touch with modern america has now turned into the business of one man being too old and out of touch with america. and of course, the big question is the reasons why all of those changes have happened, and how certain we can be that kamala harris is ahead in the places and with the groups that would be really meaningful and mean that she has a real chance of winning. so there's an awful lot to unpack. there is. and when we look at the polls, of course, as we always warn, they're a snapshot of where we are now, not a prediction of what's going to happen in november. but in a tumultuous time like this, it's very important

to look at where we are today and how voters are reacting to these huge changes. and we're going to unpick what they mean nationwide and, crucially, what they mean in those key swing states that could define the election. but there's something else going on when you're here, justin, that i think is really fascinating. there's just a change in the mood, in the "vibes" — as people keep talking about — in this election campaign. there's an enthusiasm about kamala harris. there's a joyousness about this. there is an atmosphere that i haven't witnessed in any election, in any country, since 2008. you and i were both here covering that barack obama election, and there was something in the air that was completely different — a joy and a positivity among his supporters. now, of course, a reluctant vote for a candidate counts exactly the same as a really enthusiastic vote, but that infectiousness can infect the whole of the campaign for the next three months and, if it keeps up, could make the difference. so the big takeout from the polls, let's be clear about what we're talking about. talking about two sets of polls, it seems to me, with kind of different sets of importance. there are the national polls — the sort of snapshot of where the whole nation is — and they seem to be moving in kamala harris's favour, and that is interesting, although it doesn't necessarily

put her ahead in the actual race for the white house. and the reason why that is, of course — all americasters will know this — is that in the end, there are some swing states, probably not that many of them, where the result will be decided, and you need to win in those swing states, in order to get ahead. and what's really interesting is not the national polls, it's the swing state polls, it seems to me, that do suggest not that kamala harris is firmly ahead, but that in some of those key states, she is now either level—pegging or slightly ahead, still in the margin of error, and that really matters. it's the kind of... it's the direction of travel, isn't it, sarah, that we're talking about? exactly. in some of those key swing states, she is within the margin of error and she's, like, one, two, maybe three points ahead of donald trump. that's a complete turnaround from wherejoe biden was, because he was trailing donald trump in pretty much all of them in most polls.

and so she has moved five, six points in three weeks. that's significant. now, of course, there is a honeymoon element to this. she's a new candidate, fresh on the stage. there's a relief from a lot of democratic supporters that they don't have to hold their noses and vote forjoe biden. it remains to be seen if this can keep up. but right now, if she can...this momentum continues for kamala harris, it's all good news for her. because, of course, you're right, it's all about the key swing states. 50 states vote in america, only five or six of them matter, because they're the ones that could go either for harris or for trump. every other one is pretty much decided. we already know that texas and florida are going to vote for donald trump. we know that new york and california are going to vote for kamala harris. and they're some of the biggest states in the nation. it's some of the littlest ones that will make the difference. it's wisconsin, it's michigan, it's pennsylvania, it's arizona, nevada and north carolina, maybe georgia. they're the ones that we're focusing on because they're the only ones, really, where

the result is in question. and the other interesting thing about the polls, so you've got the polls in those swing states and you've got the broad questions. "who do you support?", etc, etc. "what do you think the important subjects are?" but then they ask questions, too, about the candidates. and what really strikes me is the favourables for kamala harris really quite suddenly shooting up — frankly, without her having to do very much. in other words, it is, exactly as you were saying, sarah, it's about people's relief and enthusiasm for suddenly having a candidate, any candidate, and a kind of sense of being out from under the terrible rock that was the former campaign. and in a sense, i'm not sure that it's about kamala harris herself. it's just about... it's a kind of relief rally, isn't it? yeah, absolutely. and, i mean, we're going to be talking to a senior pollster later in this episode,

who is going to be able to really unpack the detail of this and what it means for both of the campaigns. but, i mean, i think it also informs the mood and the vibe, and that's what kamala harris has been all aboutjust now. we've had almost no detail from her about what she would do. she's not outlined the ways in which she's got the same policies asjoe biden, the ways in which she's trying to differentiate herself. she's just out there with a different tone and spreading some optimism among herfollowers. is that enough to keep going until november? who knows? but as you can hear, it's definitely working for now. cheering so, arizona, i ask, are you ready to make your voices heard? cheering do we believe in freedom? cheering do we believe in opportunity? cheering do we believe in the promise of america? cheering and are we ready to fight for it? cheering and when we fight, we win! god bless you and god bless the united states of america! cheering

it's not exactly policy heavy, is it, sarah? no! i mean, who doesn't believe in the promise of america, believe in opportunity and freedom? but that's. .. i mean, it may be the genius of this campaign that it is so thin on detail. i mean, i have to say, i have been sceptical, you know americasters have heard me saying this for a couple of years now that, you know, there's not very much there, there with kamala harris, that she wouldn't necessarily be a strong candidate. but we've got such a short campaign and such an appetite among voters for something different, maybe this is all it takes. yeah. and if she doesn't go into detail, she can't be tripped up on it. in fairness to us, i mean, we have said she was a hopeless campaigner in 2019, 2020, when she was trying for the nomination, and she hasn't been particularly good at the political communication stuff while she was vice president. we've been pretty down on her, but only because the democrats themselves have been. i mean, for goodness' sake,

the white house has been. i mean, behind the scenes, why is it thatjoe biden held on so long? they were telling people, quite regularly telling people behind the scenes, well, kamala harris isn't really up to thejob. so in a sense, the surprise is that, once again, actually — i think it's worth saying — once again, it's the american public, the voters, leading the way and the political classes kind of having to catch up, as they really did with biden himself and with his fitness for office, and as they are, it seems to me, with kamala harris as well. people are ahead of the game. they just wanted someone who wasn't biden and they're willing to... this is on the democratic side. ..and they're willing to back them. and it's a surprise, frankly, to the white house, but i think it's also a surprise to the bigwigs in the party. and the thing is, it's notjust the democrats. the republicans, also, are completely blindsided by what is happening and can't yet find the right approach to it. that's the crucial point. an example, kellyanne conway — very much part of trump world, spoke for him in the past,

is still very much part of his orbit — having a go on fox news. kamala harris isjust one big old blind date, and everybody's making her whatever they need her to be. "she's so good looking. "she's so smart, she's so wealthy, she's so funny. "she's close to her mom. she goes on really cool vacation. "she'll never break your heart." everybody's making her what they need her to be. she is defined. to define her is to deter her. yeah. to define her is what the trump campaign have been struggling to do, and kellyanne conway is very good at that kind of thing. er, just to pick up on what you were talking about before, justin, as well, about her kind of invisibility as vice president for the last three and a half years, we thought that that was a real weakness and showed she wasn't a strong campaigner. now it's genius. it's just the opposite! the reason that she's a blind date, that people can project whatever they want onto her, is because they know almost

nothing about her. yes. so it's as though everything that's happened up to this stage that we thought was a liability now actually plays into her strengths. and as kellyanne conway was saying there, donald trump doesn't seem to know what to do about it. he talks as much about joe biden as he does about kamala harris, because he clearly...he just really, really misses him. i think he wants to be fighting againstjoe biden, and he can't quite believe that he managed to get rid of him, and he hasn't worked out what his attacks on kamala harris are going to be. is she crazy? is she a radical left liberal? is she ineffective? was she covering up for joe biden's cognitive decline? he's just flailing around and he's making a mess of it. he's got these disciplined people running his campaign that, justin, you were referring to earlier, and they don't seem to be able to contain him within a message. itjust looks really messy. yeah. and you hear that almost, you hear that behind the scenes discussion when you hear him — this is him in north carolina a few nights ago. they wanted to do a speech on the economy. a lot of people are very devastated by what's happened

with inflation and all of the other things. so we're doing this as a intellectual speech. you're all intellectuals today. today we're doing it, and we're doing it right now. and it's very important. they say it's the most important subject. i think crime is right there. i think the border is right there, personally. we have a lot of important subjects because our country has become a third world nation. we literally are a third world nation. that's an internal party discussion, to put it mildly, that he's having in front of people, isn't it? it is saying that, yeah, he's been told to talk about the economy, but he thinks crime and the border are just as important. now, the economy should be a great line of attack for donald trump. i mean, there was news this week that the inflation rate has come down below 3% for the first time, i think, since biden became president. but i was out talking to voters about that yesterday, and they're still furious about the prices, because the rate of increase of prices might have slowed, but the prices are still going up and they're shockingly high. every time you go to the grocery store, it's unbelievable what you end up paying. people are really angry about that. and it had become wrapped up in this phrase, bidenomics,

which the white house had coined to describe something else. and it was really weighing around joe biden's neck. somehow, kamala harris doesn't seem to be getting the same level of blame for what's happened to the economy under the biden administration, and she can possibly get away with it. donald trump's not managed to land it yet on kamalanomics or whatever he's going to end up calling it. itjust doesn't have the same salience. yeah. i mean, there have been one or two quite good adverts, it seems to me, that they've stuck out online, the trump team, where they have gone through the things that she has said in the past and also the things that they want to attach her to. exactly as you say, the things that the biden white house that she's been part of have done. but they've done it in the adverts — they can't seem to do it with the candidate. and ijust wonder whether they have... ..you know, it's fair to say now the republicans have a candidate problem, essentially, that trump is not able to deal with this new situation. and in a sense, it is at the vibes level. it's nothing to do with policy, and it's nothing to do with the things that she has done or not done.

it's simply the fact that he's not the spotlight any more. and maybe, you know, it might have been one of the great errors ofjoe biden's efforts to do donald trump down, was this constant building up of him as a threat and as a figure that americans should be worried about and frightened about and what was he going to do if he got back in, etc. kamala harris, it seems to me, doesn't talk about that much. she says occasionally that they're weird and that they would be dangerous if they got into office, but she's mostly just going around being herself. and that, it seems to me, is in a sense the most frustrating thing for donald trump, that it is no longer about him as it was when biden was around. exactly. no longer is it about his power and strength, which is what was being projected whenjoe biden said that trump was a threat to american democracy. kamala harris is laughing at him. she's poking fun at him. and, god, that's got to hurt a man who takes himself so incredibly seriously. and, you know, we know his feelings about losers. he is apparently currently losing, and he's losing

to a younger woman of black and south asian descent. he is livid about it! he can't believe this is happening to him. and it's bringing out all of his worst political instincts. he's having a little personal temper tantrum on the public stage. and that's just increasing the sense that he's losing, that he's no longer defining this campaign, he's no longer winning this campaign. and it could just spiral into a defeat for him. that's the direction it appears to be going now. who knows if it will last? let's talk more about the swing state polls now with someone who really knows about them. we mentioned, i think you mentioned, sarah, the new york times siena swing state poll, very well regarded. people really hang on it whenever it comes out. we can welcome now the polling editor of the new york times,

ruth igielnik, who has been a polling expert for many, many years, but is also, crucially, very involved with that poll. ruth, it's a real pleasure to have you on. thanks for having me. good to be here. right, 0k. so, what are you telling us? what is it telling us about the state of the race in those swing states? yeah, so we polled the upper midwestern swing states, michigan, pennsylvania and wisconsin, and we found harris doing quite well within the margin of error, but up about four percentage points in each of those three states, which is a reversal from where things were when we polled those states in may. and when you look at why that change has come, are you able to tell us with any certainty about what has changed, which groups have changed, why people have felt differently about her now to how they felt about biden in the past — are you able to kind of...

to tell us a broader story about what's going on? yeah, i mean, ithink the broader story right now is just democratic enthusiasm. democrats are really excited about this new opportunity, and you really see it in the poll. now, to be clear, these are still early data points for harris, right? there's still a long way to go before the race. but in this early period, what we're seeing are a lot of the kind of traditionally democratic groups where biden was struggling, like younger voters, black voters, latino voters, harris is doing quite well with those groups, very similar to a more traditional democrat. so i think really what this is, is a lot of democratic enthusiasm. they're excited about this new reset. they're excited about this new opportunity, and that's what's showing up. so, ruth, i'm fascinated by who it is that's now sort of re—engaged and re—energised because kamala harris has become the candidate. those people that you're talking about, young voters, black voters. they are people you would have expected to have come out for the democratic party.

if kamala harris is going to win the presidency, doesn't she need to reach beyond those traditionally democratic voting groups? she absolutely does. and i think anybody who is a serious poll watcher right now would look at these polls and say, on the one hand, things are re—energised for harris. 0n the other hand, she might not have enough support yet to really put things over the edge. this to me looks like an extremely close race, and harris is not running away with it. she does need to reach outside of these traditionally democratic groups. she does need to touch swing voters, undecided voters, all of those voters. right now, that's not necessarily showing up in the data. there's still a long time before the fall. um, but to your earlier point about, you know, black voters, latino voters, even though biden was struggling with them, he was still winning majorities of those groups. she'sjust running up the score with those groups, which is how you kind of get to these bigger margins in some of these states. and is there a trade—off — the better she's doing with black and latino voters who see a different kind of candidate in kamala harris?

are white working—class voters, for instance, maybe going to be turned off by her? because they sanoe biden as a union man who was kind of one of them, and maybe they won't see the same in a candidate from california, for instance. yeah, i mean, it's hard to know. and that's kind of like the race to define harris. whether the harris campaign can sort of meet some of the interests of those white working—class voters, or whether the trump campaign will define her. one thing we asked in this poll was whether or not harris was too liberal or progressive, not liberal or progressive enough or about right. and more voters now say that she's too liberal or progressive than said the same thing about biden when we asked in may. so it's clear that some of that sort of early definition by the trump campaign is seeping through, and some voters think that she's a little too liberal. so it will be interesting to see if that continues. well, that's really interesting, because that is then an opportunity, isn't it? if the trump people are looking

at it, which they will be, and thinking, "how do we attack her?", which they will want to do, and they haven't done, frankly, very successfully so far, that does suggest that those attacks saying this is a san francisco liberal, she will do things to this country that you will not like, about all the kind of liberal progressive causes from trans rights to... i don't know what, i mean, a whole list of them that actually, the polls suggest, do they, that that is fertile ground, potentially, for the trump people if they can get to it? yes. yeah. that's right. yeah, that's right. and frankly, i mean, the trump campaign is also... they're trying a lot of different lines of attack right now, as i'm sure you guys have talked about on your show. but the other thing that they're kind of pushing hard is on immigration, and that's a place where we see trump running far ahead of harris and another sort of fertile ground for growth. yeah, it's interesting, though, on some of those things. i mean, when someone says to you, "i think trump is much better on immigration than harris," it doesn't

necessarily mean, does it, that they won't vote for harris? quite. in other words, you've got to be sophisticated, haven't you, about how you look at polls? and you obviously are. butjust to explain how much we can extrapolate from someone telling us things that are important to them and telling us they like one candidate's view on this, to actually coming down to who they're going to vote for, because it's potentially different, isn't it? yeah, and it can be quite different. i think it's a good reminder that we, as humans, our decision—making is not binary. we don't say, "i like her on immigration. "immigration is my only issue, "therefore i'll vote for her on immigration. " and we see this most acutely with abortion, for example. you have a lot of voters that like harris on abortion, abortion is important to them, and they're still voting for trump because abortion isn't the most important issue to them. so i think issues are crucially important to understand in the election, but we can't use that as a proxy for vote, and that's really important. that's where people can kind of lose their way with polling. so for example, if you look at immigration, right, you have more voters in our poll in the upper midwestern states saying that trump is better on immigration. you have a sizeable share of harris voters, it's

like 10%, who say that trump is better on immigration, but they're still planning to vote for harris. and that's because maybe they think he's better on immigration, but it's not the most important issue to them. 0rthere are other intangibles, right? like in this race, there's a lot less focus on the issues than there have been in previous races. there's a lot more about personality and vibes, as they say. now, the vibes are fascinating in this election, ruth. justin and i were talking earlier about exactly that and about the enthusiasm that there currently is around the harris campaign, which may or may not last. how much difference does that make? i mean, it doesn't matter how positively somebody votes for harris. it all counts the same in the end. does enthusiasm actually change the nature of the race and how many votes somebody gets? like, right now there's a lot of enthusiasm and that's great. i think there's a little bit of a honeymoon period. i think it's going to fade. the enthusiasm will stay, but you're not winning new voters, mostly, with enthusiasm. you're energising your existing voters. so the truth is that the campaign, and both sides

are fairly sophisticated in their campaigning, they understand that persuasion isjust as important as turnout. and so enthusiasm turns out your voters. but you also need to be doing some persuasion. you need to be winning some voters over to your side. both of those things are incredibly important for campaigns. so enthusiasm is great, and i think it gives the harris campaign a boost in things like fundraising and volunteering, but they sort of need to parlay that into, um, persuasion in order to win more voters to their side. ruth, it's such a pleasure to talk to you. thank you very much for sparing us the time. thank you. 0k, team, that's all we've got time for today. all our episodes, though, are available on bbc sounds, so if you want to hear more from the americast podcast, do go there. that's it. bye— bye. americast. from bbc news. hello there. there was a lot of cloud around on saturday for northern and western areas. the best of the sunshine was further east — and part two of the weekend looks pretty similar. we start dry with lots of sunshine, and then the cloud amounts will tend

to build up into the afternoon, producing just one or two showers. now the azores highs continuing to nudge northwards across much of england, wales, northern ireland. so, light winds here, but fresher across scotland. it will remain breezy throughout the day here. we start off with plenty of sunshine after that fresh start, and then clouds will tend to build up into the afternoon. it could turn quite grey in a few places. the odd shower likely for western scotland, maybe western hills of england and wales. otherwise it's mostly dry, up to 25 celsius in the southeast, the high teens further north. sunday night, we do it all again, the clouds tend to melt away for many, and the clear skies, it'll turn quite fresh again with temperatures of 8—12 degrees. now, some changes taking place to start the new week. the first of a series of low pressure systems will work its way in to the country during the day. so we start off with plenty of sunshine, but the clouds will tend to build in the west, and it'll turn wet and windy through the day. some pretty heavy and persistent rain for northern ireland, and it will turn windy with gales, perhaps around some irish sea coasts, but lighter winds again in towards the southeast, where it will stay dry and sunny all day. so temperatures responding, up to 25 celsius or so — that's the high teens further north and west, picking up

a little bit more humidity as well from the south. and then monday night, that area of low pressure and its weather fronts crosses the country. it stays quite breezy into tuesday, with the low sitting to the north of scotland, and that will bring a day of sunshine and showers, some of them will be heavy and thundery, particularly in the north and west, some of them merging together to produce longer spells of rain for western scotland. temperatures down a touch, i think 22—23 celsius will be the high, mid—to—high teens further north. and then we look out to the atlantic, this next area of low pressure contains the remnants of what was hurricane ernesto. and that potentially could bring quite a lot of rainfall to the northwest of the uk around the middle part of the week, certainly so for western scotland. but further south and east, it will tend to stay dry, i think, with some sunny spells, and it will turn increasingly humid as we pick up these southwesterly winds. stays pretty unsettled for the end of the week across more northern and western areas. a better chance of staying drier towards the southeast.

live from washington, this is bbc news. an israeli team says it is cautiously optimistic about gaza ceasefire talks while hamas describes suggestions of progress as an illusion. we can see live shots that of antony blinken on his way to those talks over a ceasefire agreement continue. opposition supporters rally across venezuela and the world against the president's claim he won last month's election. and kyiv claims to have taken more over 80 russian settlements now in its incursion over the past two weeks. hello. i'm carl nasman. welcome to the programme. israel says it has killed two senior hamas militants in an air strike in the

occupied west bank on saturday. israeli officials claim the militants were involved