hello and welcome to business today. i'm steve lai. let's begin in the us, where stock markets have recorded their best week of the year. the s&p 500 index rose by 4% while the nasdaq added around 5% in the week ending on friday. with less than three months to the us presidential election, the economy is a key issue for winning over american voters. for more on what is driving markets, we'rejoined by ryan sweet, chief us economist at oxford economics. he explained the market reaction and what he expects

with volatility in the months ahead. . , ~ ., ., ahead. last week on retail sales shows _ ahead. last week on retail sales shows the _ ahead. last week on retail sales shows the consumeri sales shows the consumer continues to chug along, jobless claims fell in the recent data, so i think that knee—jerk reaction was premature and the economy is not anywhere near a recession. whether or not this is the stain, we are getting close to an election. typically in election years there is volatility, so i wouldn't expect... i would expect history to repeat itself. i understand oxford economics has been running models on what will happen with the economy irrespective of who wins the election. what are the models telling you?— election. what are the models telling you? for each candidate fiscal policy _ telling you? for each candidate fiscal policy will _ telling you? for each candidate fiscal policy will become - fiscal policy will become inaudible into 2025 and 2026. for each, it is a re—inflationary scenario because fiscal policy will be

more stimulative. under donald trump will have more immigration restrictions and much more inflationary that is what is in our focus. much more inflationary that is what is in ourfocus. under kamala harris, the inflationary impact or less. inaudible her first cellphone economic agenda, not a lot of surprises. price gouging is getting a ton of attention. that deviates from economy —— economics ioi from economy —— economics 101 where inaudible gets involved in setting market prices, you will lead to inefficiencies, shortages. i think this is more a political chatter, will poll well rather than potentially becoming economic policy. find becoming economic policy. and the feds symposium will be watched closely this week. what watched closely this week. what are our watched closely this week. what are your expectations? - watched closely this week. what are your expectations? not - watched closely this week. “await are your expectations? not a lot. i thinkjerome powell will take a big picture approach because he will not front run the race of the fomc by signalling the where there are 25 or 50 basis point change is

coming in september. off so —— also we will get an update and that will make or break the decision, whether they cut by 25 or 50. one thing is clear is that it 25 or 50. one thing is clear is thatitis 25 or 50. one thing is clear is that it is nearly as slamdunk that it is nearly as slamdunk that the fed will be cutting interest rates in september. investors in china will no longer have a key indicator to measure sentiment in its $8.3 trillion stock market. starting from monday, the country's stock exchanges will stop releasing daily data on overseas fund flows. analysts say this is an effort by the government to prop up the market, which has seen a record withdrawal of foreign funds in recent months. byd is one of the earliest entries in pakistan's electric vehicles market which has been

slow to take off because of a lack of charging infrastructure. the boss of chips giant foxcon has defended its hiring practices in india. he opened a complex for workers in terminology. in response to a report that the company did not givejobs to a report that the company did not give jobs to married woman at an iphone assembly factory which sparked an investigation. in thailand, the parliament has picked paetongtarn shinawatra as prime minister. she's the daughter of billionaire tycoon and former leader thaksin. her selection comes days after former pm srettha thavisin was dismissed by a constitutional court. both are from the pheu thai party, which came second at the 2023 election but formed a ruling coalition. ms paetongtarn faces the difficult task of reviving thailand's stalled economy and avoiding the military coups which have deposed four previous administrations

led by her party. for more we'rejoined from singapore by analyst richard yarrow, a research fellow with the center for business & government at harvard kennedy school. thailand has gone through political chaos. the first democratically elected prime minister after a coup led government only survived a year. the main opposition party, which was also democratically elected, was also forcibly dissolved by the constitutional court just before the prime minister was forced out of office. thailand is in a state of political turmoil. economically the economy has been mediocre. there have been a lot of big government policies... there have been verbal commitments, talk about... but no clarity over whether they will be implemented, including infrastructure like thailand's landbridge, a major label —— rail line linking bangkok to china as well as a digital wallet programme which the current ruling party has been campaigning on. no clarity on if it will be permitted.- if it will be permitted. where do ou if it will be permitted. where do you see — if it will be permitted. where do you see her _ if it will be permitted. where do you see her focus - if it will be permitted. where do you see her focus being . if it will be permitted. where i do you see her focus being with this emergence out of a liveable cities —— limbo

situation? i liveable cities -- limbo situation?— liveable cities -- limbo situation? i think she is stuck. on _ situation? i think she is stuck. on the _ situation? i think she is stuck. on the one - situation? i think she is stuck. on the one hand| situation? i think she is - stuck. on the one hand she needs to get the economy revived. in large part the party's revived. in large part the pa rty�*s electoral revived. in large part the party's electoral legitimacy relies on it. the party chances at the next election, due in the next three years, rely on getting the economy revived or moving again. on the other hand, she has to be concerned in the back of her mind or at the end of the day have fate could be similar to the fates of three other relatives who served as prime minister before, all of whom were deposed either by the constitutional court or military coup.- constitutional court or military coup. constitutional court or milita cou. ~ ., constitutional court or milita cou. ., , military coup. where do you see opportunities — military coup. where do you see opportunities for _ military coup. where do you see opportunities for her _ military coup. where do you see opportunities for her to - military coup. where do you see opportunities for her to move i opportunities for her to move forward with the economy? where are the areas of growth or loaf hanging fruit you can focus on? low hanging fruit, one could be manufacturing. there has been a wave of manufacturing moving out of china into southeast

asia, countries like vietnam, malaysia, indonesia. thailand has benefited a tiny bit from that, but not very substantially so far and there has not been a great focus on attracting the kind of industries that malaysia and indonesia have been getting. manufacturing is also a bit of... in a tight spot in thailand at the moment as many thailand at the moment as many thai manufacturers have been suffering from competition with chinese manufacturing. australia's lowest—paid workers are seeing a bit of relief. an increase of almost 4% in the minimum wage came into effect injuly after months of discussion among trade unions, employers and the government. prime minister anthony albanese said his government will continue to work towards boosting wages at a time when many workers are feeling the pinch due to higher prices. from sydney, phil mercer reports. good afternoon. may i please have a hot meal? hazel soriano is a part—time sales representative in sydney but still needs help

from charities for a hot meal. i just have to struggle day by day. the earnings i would probably receive just covers the rent but not with the food, electricity that you need to pay as well. it is really hard. australia's minimum wage for workers aged over 21 is about us$16 an hour. in the last five years, increases have been overtaken by inflation. it is terrible to see the people come in here who might have a full—time job, but are falling further behind each day. the working poor is too kind a term. businesses really have too much of an upper hand, mate, and they have had it for — in australia — for the past ten years. but some industries argue that annual increases to the minimum wage are not sustainable and are pushing some businesses, especially in hospitality,

to the brink of collapse. we, as an industry value the workforce, certainly they are the most valuable asset that a business has. at the same time we need to be mindful that small businesses can't always continue to pay a certain amount of increase every year, over and over and over again. it sends many of them to the wall. when utilities are up, when cost of goods are up it is just too much pressure for restaurants and cafes. increases to the minimum wage affect about a fifth of australia's workforce — or 2.5 million people. the amount is set by the fair work commission, which is the national industrial relations tribunal. it considers various factors, including inflation, unemployment and the general health of the economy. however, workplace experts believe that increasing pay need not be a burden for companies. instead, it should be an opportunity. those wage increases spur innovation in organisations. to compensate for a wage increase they focus more on, well, how are we going to be more productive to offset those wage increases?

trade unions insist that a 3.75% increase to the minimum wage is not enough, while business groups say it's too much. recent tax cuts have helped australia's lowest paid workers, but many insist that their struggles will continue. phil mercer, bbc news, sydney. libya's central bank has suspended all operations after senior employee was kidnapped in the capital of tripoli. the bank announced the abduction of its information technology director in a statement on sunday. they said he was taken from his home by an unidentified party and other employees had been threatened with kidnapping. the central bank is the only internationally recognised repository for all revenues that are vital to the economy. i will be back with more business news in the next hour. goodbye for now.

hello and welcome to sportsday. i'm olly foster. haaland scores for city in his 100th appearance as they start their title defence with a win. it's an underwhelming la liga debut for kylian mbappe, as the champions real madrid are held at mallorca. and sabalenka serves up her sunday best to beat swiatek in their cincinnati semifinal. are hello there.