Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Asia  Bloomberg  November 1, 2023 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT

7:00 pm
7:01 pm
>> you are watching daybreak asia. >> counting down to the major market open. annabelle: australia is just come online. the top stories. >> the committee is proceeding carefully. annabelle: risk on market mood is set to continue in asia. smaller than expected treasury funding. earnings in focus. qualcomm giving this revenue forecast. exclusive interview with fox, chairman looking to make a push into electric cars. data about south korean inflation.
7:02 pm
consumer prices rising higher than expected. 3/10 of 1% month on month. the estimate was for 2/10 of 1%. food and energy more volatile. gasoline and fresh food prices on a hike in public transport fees supporting inflation and fresh food holding up even after the holiday and underlying inflation pressures easing with bank of korea and weakening demand with an expression -- expectation that core inflation will soften further and also seeing following the said
7:03 pm
decision the hong kong-based rate staying unchanged so in tandem with the federal hold and what is driving some enthusiasm in markets at the moment. >> all about the reaction to the fed this morning and jay powell left the door open to another hike saying they will be data-dependent but markets are going with the assessment that the fed is done with the current tightening cycle so bond yields have pulled back and the australia three year and 10 year a draw down across the curve as dollar a little weaker and the outperformance of currencies like the aussie dollar sensitive to commodities and iron ore higher and equities is the push
7:04 pm
to the upside and the asx 200 online and some stocks we are watching, origin energy not trading yet. we are counting down to the korea open and japan and a picture of broad-based gains for the session. new zealand stocks trading to the upside. japanese yen steady this morning. vonnie: futures are picking a higher direction in the u.s. and money flowing into bonds with yields down again in the thursday session and they were wednesday with 10 year rates down 18 basis points and now the 10-year yield does at 4.734 so they are tumbling down and goldman sachs suggested the fmo see today was dovish at the
7:05 pm
margins but the market is calling it dovish and the feeling is that the fed is done with rate hikes but powell capped another rate hike in place and the economy needs slower growth and likely weakness so let's listen to what powell said. >> given how far we have come along with the uncertainty and risk we face, the committee is proceeding carefully. we will make decisions about the extent of additional policy firming and how long policy will remain restrictive based on the total of the incoming data and evolving outlook and balance of risks. vonnie: we have a perfect guest to react. let's go to sycamore -- singapore and haslinda. >> the global chairman of
7:06 pm
research at barclays is here. what did the fed do and what was the message from powell? >> that the economy is stronger than expected but still week. it is confusing, you are right. it grew 5% in the last quarter and jobs numbers have revised upwards but earlier this week of the eci came in stronger-than-expected and i think they tied their hands a few weeks ago when they took november off the table and i think it is a mistake. >> you have known jay powell for 10 years. our politics and play? >> more -- are politics in
7:07 pm
play? >> more than that i think the fed sees a soft landing and they try to drive it. they tried to do it last december and we were forced into further rate hikes this year. in march there was the banking crisis. and it has not happened. next year is a contentious presidential election. they are politically aware. they do not want to be part of the political conversation. if they want to do something, they should do it now. >> powell acknowledged financial conditions have tightens and yields have helped but look at where markets are. and unraveling of yields.
7:08 pm
does that undo what has been done? >> to a small extent. a bond selloff but the argument is circular but more importantly it is unclear that the amount of financial conditions tightening right now is greater than what happened after the march banking crisis. they said banks would stop lending in the u.s. would crash and nothing. so i am not sure why he thinks this tightening is greater than what happened with banks, something the u.s. economy shrug off like this. vonnie: you have been doing this for a long time. what is the terminal rate? to be tumble more from here -- do we tumble more from here? >> the terminal rate for this
7:09 pm
cycle we think will be under 50 basis points higher from here. a hike is in the cards. we are out of consensus but have been out of consensus in the past and we have been more right than wrong. more importantly for markets on the economy, i think the fed will struggle to cut rates quickly for a long time, to get them back to 2.5% and that is a problem not so much for the u.s. because the fed is reacting to the u.s. economy being strong but i think it is a problem for the rest of the world. >> how do you get to 2%? powell says it will be a lumpy process. >> you need a fairly deep recession and i do not think you will get it. one thing to remember, part of the reason why the economy has
7:10 pm
been so strong is because u.s. fiscal is strong. we are spending money as a government like a drunken sailor. >> you said earlier it was a mistake. where are yields headed? 10's hit 5%. will look at their? >> it will get there at -- 10 year yields hit 5%. will they get there? >> they will. and how much debt the u.s. has to issue. for the last decade, the large current surplus of economies, this part of the world, they are on the sidelines and the u.s. has so much for so long that we
7:11 pm
will be a giant drive on the rest of the world's savings for a while. >> what does it mean for this part of the world? >> it is a challenge for emerging economies. you have the world's largest economy issuing $2 trillion. that is a lot. why would you go anywhere else? >> always a pleasure. robust views there. vonnie, we are coming to you from the asia forum marking 50th
7:12 pm
year here in singapore. vonnie: still ahead we continue our coverage from the forum in singapore, speaking with stephen dane 10. first, a slump in the smartphone market might be bottoming out. details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
7:13 pm
the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make- everyday products, designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that- i need a breakthrough card. like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more. plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases. and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas- a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours.
7:14 pm
>> let's take a look at qualcomm . results after the bell. up 3.7% off the highs. more upbeat than forecast and assign the slump might be receding when it comes to the mobile phone industry.
7:15 pm
let's get more from su keenan. china might be to thank for this. >> they definitely see the inventory buildup easing and a lot of movement in china for the coming quarter helped give the optimistic outlook by realize china is a critical market and there is a lot of cross currency not showing sign of strong recovery so coming into the quarter the market had bottoms and the question was the speed and side us of -- size of the come back. the midpoint beat expectations and sales rebounded in china and customers had been holding onto existing models in the past. many analysts say it is not an
7:16 pm
impressive feat, the snapback and continued -- recovery muted but it is positive. fifth quarter -- fourth quarter revenue fell but this beat what analysts expected to so it was a beat on fourth quarter and a positive outlook better than expected for the fiscal fourth-quarter and that has carried the stock in extended trading higher and carrying other chip stocks higher as well. haidi: what are some other highlights? >> chipmakers are tied to the consumer electronics and qualcomm sought business sad recently because of the build in inventory and decline in buying patterns and china is pointed as an area where a lot of customers
7:17 pm
hang onto older models so it was a positive that they are seeing anriting out the slump and market and the results will likely allay growing concern of a slow down but lack of significant beat on the disc court -- discounted sales suggest little likelihood of a strong snapback. so these results are good but not great. qualcomm has not year to date performed as well as many rivals in the space but this uptick likely will translate into a nice little bump. >> su keenan the details.
7:18 pm
foxconn is taking a leap into ev's. we spoke with the ceo about why he believes in an electric future. >> after four years we are becoming more excited because the more we learn about the new industry the more we believe it is the right industry for us to go into because it is our experience and scale and creates big enough engine barriers where our competitors to go into. >> how big is the opportunity for you in terms of market size and company capabilities? >> for market size we did a study when we started a few
7:19 pm
years ago and at that time the market was estimated at 600 billion dollars u.s. dollars big so this is big enough if we can get like 10% of it it would be 60 billion so foxconn is running 200 70, that kind of market with that kind of revenue so with 60 billion it is 25%. >> you are building a factory in thailand and bought a factory in ohio. what did you think when you visited the facility in ohio? >> these are huge facilities. we think we can do a lot by
7:20 pm
converting the factory into ev factory because the surrounding environment, they used to do 500,000 cars a year at that kind of capacities. definitely you have to have enough supply chain in the area in order to support that kind of production and with this location and space that is big enough, we think it will be very good for ev production there. >> can you talk a little bit about future expansion? because you will have to be closer to the markets. >> yes. >> where do you think the next steps will be? >> currently we have the factory
7:21 pm
in ohio and we are are going to build one in thailand. i think the next big one we will build will be in india. a following that, we think about building one in europe. and we are also in the process of building one in saudi arabia. so as i mentioned, there are three new places that we will build factories. so i think we have plenty to do. >> foxconn ceo speaking exclusively with bloomberg. get around out to get your day going on dayb and our bloomberg app. customize settings to get the news on the industries that matter to you. this is bloomberg. ♪
7:22 pm
7:23 pm
7:24 pm
president biden: israel has the right to defend itself from terrorism and needs to do so in a manner that is consistent with humanitarian international law. >> president biden speaking at an event reiterating that israel has a right to defend itself but only in a manner consistent with international law. the u.s. and israel are exploring options for the future of the gaza strip which could include a peacekeeping force. this has been the big question about the ultimate objective on the other end of the conflict. >> it is a huge question.
7:25 pm
israel has to root out hamas and whether it can is an open question. israel is talking about having a buffer zone between the gaza strip and israel. how that works is uncertain. the options are the multinational force that has been mentioned but would arab states be involved and would they be willing to patrol and keep the peace against their own side, the palestinians? if you bring in western countries, will they be exposed to being shot at? so it is difficult to work out. the other alternative is the palestinian authority from the west bank coming over but the u.s. has lost credibility with the palestinian people. so how that looks will be
7:26 pm
fascinating to see. there is no obvious answer. israel does not want to occupy it, it would leave them open. 15 years ago they withdrew because they did not want to be part of gaza. so this is quite the issue. >> is there any self-determination for the palestinian people? reconciliation, are we looking at years down the road? >> at the end of the day that is the answer everyone understands but it is two groups of people living in a very small area. to drive from the mediterranean to the dead sea in israel is an hour and a half. it is a small area of land. when you get close to peace deals, extremists on both sides
7:27 pm
tried to thwart them because there is an element on both sides that this is their land and the other side should not be there so while you are trying to find a solution for two groups that do not recognize the rights of the other side, it becomes very difficult and there have been great efforts from people who have really put themselves on the line on both sides to try to achieve this and this has been going on for 75 years so this is not an easy problem to solve. >> you know, yes. that people have tried to solve and we will continue to [indiscernible] for the latest. the start of training in half an hour in korea and japan, half an hour into trading in sydney. a strong session.
7:28 pm
brookfield as management boosting offer to acquire origin mg. a sweet deal by 8% and the downside for origin energy despite broader market trading higher and kiwi stocks seeing nice gains extended and futures trading contracts for japan and korea also higher as well. next, back to singapore for an exclusive conversation with barclays global cohead of markets. this is bloomberg. ♪
7:29 pm
so... i know you and george were struggling with the possibility of having to move. how's that going? we found a way to make bathing safer with a kohler walk-in bath. a kohler walk-in bath provides a secure, spa-like bathing experience in the comfort of your own home. a kohler walk-in bath has one of the lowest step-ins of any walk-in bath for easy entry and exit. it features textured surfaces, convenient handrails for more stability, and a wide door for easier mobility. kohler® walk-in baths include two hydrotherapies— whirlpool jets and our patented bubblemassage to help soothe sore muscles in your feet, legs, and back. a kohler-certified installer will install everything quickly and conveniently in as little as a day. they made us feel completely comfortable in our home. and, yes, it's affordable. i wish we would have looked into it sooner. think i might look into one myself.
7:30 pm
stay in the home and life you've built for years to come. call... to receive $1,500 off your kohler® walk-in bath. and take advantage of our low monthly payment financing. >> people are pointing to the
7:31 pm
immaculate disinflation. we think you need a weaker economy to pull the inflation down as rapidly assets been falling. jeffrey: clearly what the market saw was a preference for the worry of financial conditions. we could be done. richard: the risk is that inflation is too stubborn. if i was talking to jp -- jay powell, i recommend he leave the door open. diane: our concern is may and june, will -- where will the fed be. it's really important. >> we've taken a brief six months and it accumulates. wages are sec at 4.5%, it's unlikely 14 point move will sufficiently do the job. it's either zero or multiple rate hikes. annabelle: the fed's decision to hold interest rates at a 22 year
7:32 pm
high. market reaction has come through. the fed is done and we seen a rally come through in bonds and equities. we are taking a poll survey of some of our respondents of the mliv blog looking at where they see the peak for u.s. 10-year treasury yield over the course of 2023. the vast majority of respondents saying the tenure will actually continue to climb further, so the pullback in yields could be short-lived. 50% of respondents say could climb to 5.5%. the small percentage says it will go above that mark. let's change on because another question that was asked in that survey was whether the fed is done with hiking. again, the assessment is coming through from analysts and now say the cut is the next step. we just heard earlier, jeffrey
7:33 pm
is one of those saying there could be a 200 basis point reduction in 2024, given the risk of recession that's developing and could start in the first quarter. that's his view on the outlook. of course, that december rate decision is still live, some including bank of america saying a 25 basis point hike is still possible and that is little bit lower than the odds. one and five are seeing a chance of that happening. quick check on bond moves today because it really is that relief rally coming through and you see those yields that are continuing to retreat across the curve. vonnie: thank you. we will be back with u.s. markets continue to open across the region. let's get you back now to the forum underway in singapore. haslinda almond is standing cowards -- standing by with our next guest. haslinda: standing by exclusively is stephen, global cohead of markets at barclays. good to have you with us.
7:34 pm
we saw how stocks and bonds rallied. of course, traders are more than happy to declare that the fed is done. is it done? >> i think it's very unlikely. thank you for having me today. we are here in singapore with the 50th anniversary of our clays. i think jay powell's commentary yesterday was as expected. the federal pause here, i think they have demonstrated that they continue to want to be data-dependent, but what is very clear is that financial conditions have tightened over the course of the last six months. we had a banking crisis in the u.s. in march. without rolled through, created a timing, perhaps not as tight as people had expected, but you now have the 10 year yield, having traveled through 5%, that's a first time since 2007. two years very stable. you see u.s. high yield rates at 9.5 percent. u.s. mortgage rate at 8%.
7:35 pm
very clearly financial circumstances have tightened. that being said, i think there is a likelihood for another 25% hike. our analysts are expecting that, probably against expectations, but i think the fed definitely is not about to cut. haslinda: powell said the fed is data dependent. it's not a new,. it doesn't mean that volatility will persist. it means that perhaps, every meeting could possibly be a live meeting. stephen: i think you are exactly right. i think every single meeting, whilst it is data dependent, is data-dependent. you will see increasing volatility into each of the meetings. we had the bank of england meeting today. i think you have a lot of central banks, a lot of central banks coming into each meeting with a very clear understanding of what markets are telling them. there is a very close scrutiny of markets, even with the ecb.
7:36 pm
we are seeing a focus on growth in europe, real concern about growth overall in europe and that's not the case in the u.s. you come into each meeting with a real concern. it could go either way. haslinda: we are talking about how tenure yield is hitting 5%. how is out volatility in the bond market in yields playing up for you in terms of your business? how is it shaping our decisions? stephen: we see a lot of activity from early in the year. a lot of clients are looking for duration and the portfolios. that obviously was somewhat of a struggle as we came into the summer and you saw increased volatility. effects fall has declined, equity vault decline. in the course of the last six weeks you have seen a pick up in volatility across all asset classes. that's being determined by macro data. macro data is showing continued strength, particularly in the
7:37 pm
u.s. u.s. consumer has been unbelievably strong over the course of this year. haslinda: what does it mean for asian market. with yield so high there's no reason to be mining and risking markets like asia, emerging markets. stephen: i think emerging markets will have a difficult time. i think with real yields in western markets at elevated levels, and you've seen the policy rates adjust, you seen the policy rate adjust in the philippines, you've seen turkey raise rates. it becomes challenging for the emerging markets. mexico is 10% yield when just across the border you can get 5%. i think emerging markets will struggle. over the course of the next six months it's going to be very important for clients to be establishing clear lenses on particular economies. australia, india become extremely important in the southern hemisphere. haslinda: talk to us about your
7:38 pm
business in key markets like india. how has it done given that you have seen some cuts in these markets? stephen: we've, over the course of the last five years we've set the business up. we compete in a very diversified way. we have a large g10 practice and we have a very large credit practice, credit into emerging markets, we tend to be very significant providers of liquidity in emerging markets. we have a significant presence in singapore and hong kong, in particular, india for us. i think you are meeting them later on today. they run the whole of our asia business from india, so we have an extremely large presence. we set the business up over the course of the last five years to be able to compete across equities and fixed income with the five dollar u.s. firm. post gf have really established large liquidity opportunities
7:39 pm
within fixed income. haslinda: what expansion plans might you have because japan has a bond market. what are the expansion plans there? stephen: japan has reemerged of a place -- as a place of interest. i think us being able to provide our clients with access in and out of japan has been important. japan, in the course of the last year, for our clients, has been one of the most important geographies. i think we will continue to provide significant liquidity in the end slots, jgb's over the course of year-end. i do think liquidity for year-end will be critical for our clients. provision for bank liquidity over year end, it's important every year. this year it's going to be unbelievably important. haslinda: a lot of capital is sitting on the sidelines waiting to be deployed. when do you see that happening? stephen: i think you have to see geopolitical stability. it's been a difficult six
7:40 pm
months. if you look at what has happened this year, we shouldn't forget we had a banking crisis. we had a banking crisis earlier this year. we had one that was taken over by another bank this year, we have central banks on the move. clients have been somewhat cautious over the course of the last six months as they have watched central banks began to observe. you highlighted volatility as you come into every meeting, it will be data-dependent. haslinda: global cohead of markets at barclays. we have big names coming up, including barclays own ceo. haidi: we will be back in singapore tomorrow with great conversations with haslinda. japan's prime minister is set to announce spending of around 144 billion dollars in his government status stimulus package. we get those details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
7:41 pm
the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make- everyday products, designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that- i need a breakthrough card. like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more. plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases. and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas- a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours.
7:42 pm
haidi: japanese authorities have ramped up efforts of rising bond deals after the boj removed its 1% yield cap. let's get more from our effects and rates reporter. what are you seeing here on these dual efforts? michael: i think they probably
7:43 pm
owe jay powell a peer because, to be lucky or smart, they are being lucky with the way that admitting came out. the fed tried to be hawkish but came off as dovish. the treasuries rallied before the event on that issuance outcome of the debt market. they have cut themselves a little bit of time, but we are only 100 so points from that peak. that 15195 peak. not out of the woods yet. but i think if we get to november and then december kicks in and it does we get a little bit in december, that might give the bank of japan ministry of finance a little bit more breathing room. but, at the moment, dollar yen could fall another 200 points and still maintain. so, it's a little bit of to-and-fro. there was a, this morning.
7:44 pm
it was a quote that said the mlf and boj are out of sync. and i think that is seen here in plainview because, it's even harder to find out what they are preoccupied with what the priority is. the 1% yield reference rate called the weaker yen. i would be concerned from an inflation point of view but import prices push up for the wrong reason. which i may say is transitory. but for the 1%, they jump into the market and to an operation yesterday afternoon. that is keeping the net market on edge. there is a 10 year yield option today that comes in and 1230, tokyo -- 12:30 tokyo time. the market will look at how that's received and if that encourages any further action from boj to jump in. vonnie: who are most
7:45 pm
threatening, fx traders are fixed income traders? michael: i'm an fx guy myself and i think it's easier to get in and out of the yen, is still one of the most liquid currencies from a liquidity point of view. i think that we can buy and hold the debt, when they move on policy, you don't get the chance to get your money back, you just have to write the check if you are on the right side of that trade. so, for me, there is more of an ability to trade your way out of it in dollar yen, maybe get a pullback like we have. it hasn't all been in one straight line. i'd rather be an fx trader, to answer your question, then a rates trader in tokyo because it's just too hard. vonnie: i'm sure they are having a lot of fun at the moment. michael, our effects and rates
7:46 pm
reporter. japan's economy is said to get a shot in the arm from a new stimulus package as a prime minister seeks to shore up falling support. bloomberg has seen a draft of the plan that includes $144 billion in spending. let's get more details from our politics reporter isabel reynolds in tokyo. they are announcing what is essentially helicopter money to help households deal with inflation. why isn't the public backing this? >> polls have consistently shown that people don't like the idea of these tax cuts and the handouts that are coming in this package that's a be announced later in the day. what we've seen out of the past two years is inflation constantly rising higher than wages so people are feeling worse off. they wanted him to tackle inflation, that was the top priority in all the polls. with this way of doing it they don't seem to like. there were several reasons for that.
7:47 pm
the tax breaks won't come until june next year, which is late for people struggling with prices at the supermarket now. but other reasons include people thinking it's just a way for him to try to regain his lost popularity, or also increasingly there is concern among the japanese about the size of the national debt. is now 2.5 times the size of the economy and people are growing increasingly concerned. haidi: he is now facing his were support rate since taking office. are we likely to see some internal leadership challenge? is avail: we are certainly seeing some conflict come into the surface. we saw one of his rival factions in parliament telling him he wasn't showing enough leadership, which is an unusual move for someone within his own party. there certainly could be some jostling for leadership. there is still almost a year until the next leadership
7:48 pm
election, which is in september. it could be said that it is more advantageous for people even who don't particularly like him within the past, to keep them in place to deal with this difficult situation before they bring their own in at a later date. haidi: isabel reynolds there in tokyo. tough times for the leadership there. be sure to tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the newsmakers. get in-depth analysis from the broad rate -- you can listen in via the app radio plus. much more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
7:49 pm
7:50 pm
vonnie: the ceo of google deep mine is getting criticism from mentors cheap ai -- chief ai scientists. they are playing up the existential risks. they told us why it's necessary to balance risks with optimism when considering ai's future benefits. have a listen. >> i think the measures we bring is one of cautious optimism. we are working on this technology because we think it will be the most beneficial to society ever. but it does come with risks as all transformative technologies do. i think we need to take them seriously ranging from the near-term risk to the longer-term technological risks.
7:51 pm
i think we need to start an international dialogue about that now so it's fantastic to see this happening. >> there is divergence from policymakers and passionate splits within your own community. you are very aware of this. the head of ai at meta saying your fear mongering has regulatory capture going on. your response to that critique because they aren't alone, there are others who say it is preposterous to talk about some of these existential risks, fear mongering. is that what you are doing? >> of course not. there are equilibrium's on the others, including the award winners. we have all known each other for a long time in the community. as far as reglet tory capture and other things, that's preposterous. myself and cofounders have been talking about ai safety since we were post-'s and academics. before we even started our
7:52 pm
companies. i think it comes from a genuine uncertainty around where the technology can go. it's enormously powerful, that's why we all work our whole lives on it, all of us. we think you could be -- bring benefits to science, medicine, climate, environment and help us in society face some of our greatest challenges and solve some of those challenges. but in terms of where the technology is going to go in the capabilities, there's a lot of uncertainties. i think it's good there's disagreements, even amongst the academic fraternity. that's why we have to proceed with cautious optimism. we want to make sure we get the benefits of the innovation and the promise that the technology clearly holds. but we've got to be doing it in a responsible way using a scientific method, trying to have as much foresight on the technology as possible. we predict ahead of time what the unintended consequences might be. >> for some, it's the emphasis.
7:53 pm
the deputy prime minister said, this is a summit focused on frontier technology, so the next models may go out within the next 12 months. others would say we should focus on the more prosaic risks, the misinformation, data security. those issues are not being given enough weight. >> i don't agree with that. i think that in this summit there is many sessions on the near-term risks and all of us in the frontier labs are thinking a lot about near-term harms and how to mitigate those. haidi: google deep mine ceo speaking to bloomberg's tom mackenzie on the sidelines of the u.k. global ai safety summit. let's get you the latest corporate stories that we are tracking at the moment. disney expects to pay $8.61 billion to buy comcast's one third stake. in the hulu streaming service. they started negotiations that are expected to last months.
7:54 pm
the company said the final price would be settled through an appraisal process that is likely to involve up to three investment banks. air pmp giving disappointing outlook for the first quarter citing greater volatility in the economic environment that expects will slow demand for travel. revenue for the three months ending in december will be 2.13 to two by one $7 billion, falling short of analysts estimates. the company expects the pace about -- pace of growth to moderate relative to the third quarter. bloomberg has learned that jp morgan is searching for a potential partner to grow its private credit business. sources say that banks in talks with pension funds and alternative asset management. jp morgan is looking for third-party capital to supplement more than $10 billion already set aside for its perfect credit strategy. charles schwab has finished cutting more than 2000 jobs or as much as 6% of its workforce. the company is trying to find half a billion dollars in annual
7:55 pm
cost savings with client money flows falling as it continues to integrate to td ameritrade. the cuts are hard but necessary steps. vonnie: taking a look at the market, the market spoke after fed chair jay powell gave his news conference in stocks rally. the s&p 500 was out more than 1%. it looks like we will have another update tomorrow. but up for bonds as well, interestingly. we had the 10 year yield down 18 basis points to 470 57. it is down now at 470 34, so continuing to drop. fed chair himself talking about financial conditions and how they have been doing some of the work for the fed. but if they unwind like this, they will say maybe they have to put the fed back in the game itself. the other thing i wanted to mention is that we are technically at the start of what should be the best six months of the year. so we rule see it doesn't feel
7:56 pm
like a normal year but i'm not sure if any year has felt like a normal year. haidi: you look at modeling around expectations, seasonality and so much of that get thrown up in the air because we are dealing with the endgame when it comes to the end stage of this tightening cycle and all of the volatility that comes with it. we are seeing stocks and bonds rising on that continued hope that the fed tightening cycle is over. some of those comments from fed chair powell clearly are what investors are choosing to see at the moment. we see australian kiwi use mirroring that the client and treasuries. we will back in singapore at the barclays asia forum, speaking with the bank ceo. ♪ ing, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪
7:57 pm
7:58 pm
7:59 pm
8:00 pm
vonnie: this is "daybreak asia". we are counting down to asia's major market open. certainly the regular session in the u.s. saw stocks breathed a sigh of relief, i think it's fair to say, after the fed chair's decision in news conference. we weren't necessarily anticipating any move but the language was cheering to the market as well. haidi: the language chose to focus on that press conference. we are seeing that relief rally, that cheers spreading to what is a very solid session here in asia. of course we are getting into the side of trading in korea and japan. let's see whether we are going to ca a lot of upside in those equity futures contracts translate to the cash open. annabelle: that's right. we've got the open here for korea and also japan, started trading in the session. plus the 10 year yield coming online. you can see that continued retreat as we see a live pricing
8:01 pm
once again. it really is that story, that relief rally coming through in bonds and in stocks after the fed stayed on hold and signaled the rise in treasury yields that we have seen reduces that impetus of further tightening. jay powell did leave the door open for further hikes because he's not confident that inflation is on the part to 2%, but still the market saying we are done for the current tightening cycle. you can see that retreat coming in cross yields led by the front end of the curve, but very broad-based moves. where that's also playing out is you got moves coming through the fx space. that korean won up 7/10 of a percent against the greenback. that's a more risk sensitive currency. korea is one to note given we had inflation in korea re-accelerating in the prior reading, so that challenges the bank of korea view. bank of korea's one of the first central banks in asia to start holding rates. also was tipped to one of the first to start cutting.
8:02 pm
what else we are watching as the moves, lower treasury yields, softer dollar. that is supportive for equities. good see with korea and japan coming online, they are both up more than 1% at this stage. very broad-based gains and a lot of green on the screen here this morning. let's take a look at which sectors are moving, because it's not just the fed that's in focus, we are also keeping an eye on i.t. stocks. you can see broad-based gains but i.t. up around .5%. qualcomm numbers were out after hours, that's the largest smartphone chips in the u.s., giving a better-than-expected revenue forecast for the current quarter. so, when you put up the fed, and you got earnings, it will be quite a risk on session for asia today. haidi: let's look at how our bloomberg tv guests have reacted to that latest fed decision. >> people are calling this the immaculate disinflation. we usually think you need a weak
8:03 pm
economy to pull the inflation down as rapidly as a has been falling. >> clearly what the market saw was a preference for the worry of tightening financial conditions. we are sufficiently restrictive. >> inflation is too stubborn. if i were recommending or talking a jay powell, i would recommend you leave the door open to doing more. wax our concern is around may and june, where is the fed going to be. i think the optionality to have rate hikes on the table and that every meeting is live is really important. >> we've taken a bring for six months, and the evidence accumulates that monetary policy is not as tight as you think it is and is starting to become an anchor. wages are stuck at 4.5%. then it's unlikely that one quarter-point move is going to be sufficient to do the job. i think it's either zero or multiple rate hikes. haidi: let's bring in our executive editor for asian markets. paul dobson with the latest.
8:04 pm
when you take a look at what the markets are choosing to see in the outlook, do you think that this enthusiasm might be overdone? paul: i think that we are caught a little bit in a trade-off between, on the one hand, the higher yields causing the fed to think more carefully about how much further it needs to hike, but when the fed starts talking about those higher yields making it less likely to hike, the yields come back down again. so we are sort of wobbling around a bit between the two of those at this moment in time. i think that the market listen to powell and while everyone expected him to try to leave the door open for more hikes, everybody was listening for that. there was no sense of urgency that the markets took away from it. we get the snap mliv survey
8:05 pm
immediately afterwards. it's quite close, only 50% of those think the next move will be a cut. 50% think a hike either this year or next year. so it's not completely clear that it's totally done yet. but what it is clear is that we are close to the end of the hiking cycle. that's why we saw the drop in yields at the short end of the curve today. vonnie: it's a fascinating economy. that's part of the problem. jay powell is looking for slower growth and weakness in the labor market but the staff has an price back into recession. does that mean we are out of the woods and that there won't be a recession? paul: it's very early to say that in the jury is certainly still out. the economic data is showing signs of slowing. q3 was very strong. q4, not looking that strong or as strong. also, no immediate signs of
8:06 pm
panic yet. what people are concerned about is the amount of savings that is being squirreled away after the pandemic is kind of running out now, so people are starting to do things like default on their car loans, run up higher debts. struggling with the housing market as well. yet on the flipside of that, the labor markets are still doing strikes because they see the high inflation, one third of wage increases. it's a cheeky balance at the moment. you wonder if maybe something is going to snap. something unexpected could be the catalyst that would tip us over the edge and towards a recession. there is definitely signs of slowdown there and maybe we will play in the equities favor and may be the earnings will remain robust enough that we can see this. or maybe this is as good as it gets in we are about to sort of rollover a little bit more.
8:07 pm
haidi: where you see the most optimistic positioning in asia? paul: for asia, this signs of economics strengthens support, looking a little bit better right now. beside little bit of a pickup in exports for south korea. i think -- what asia has been hating and finding toxic and finding toxic in terms of financial markets in recent weeks has been the strong dollar, has been the higher treasury yields. it's been putting a lot of pressure on domestic markets on the right side and fx side. central banks have been having to hike even though they didn't want to or have been intervening in currency markets. we had a bit of a nasty moment when the 10 year yield was above 5%. is this moment where asia starts to break. asia, which has been surprisingly robust so far this year, suddenly has out a little
8:08 pm
bit of vote wobble and heart stop moment and came through it. so, if the u.s. interest rate market can remain under wraps from here, can remain below those 5% levels, maybe there's an argument that asia will have done enough to weather the storm and can look more optimistic so long as the u.s. economy can hold up into next year. vonnie: we will see if they all come to pass. thank you, paul dobson, our executive editor for asia markets. let's get to the latest geopolitical news this hour. president biden has credited intense and urgent american diplomacy with the opening of the rough of border crossing into egypt. that's allowing an initial group of refugees, including some americans to flee fighting in gaza. the u.s. and israel is said to be exploring options with the future of the goddesses strip -- gaza strip. israel has a right to defend
8:09 pm
itself but only in a manner consistent with international law. president biden: we will continue to affirm that israel has the responsibility to defend its citizens from terror and it needs to do so in a manner consistent with international and humanitarian law that prioritizes protection of citizens. vonnie: south korea spy agency is said to believe that north korea has shipped more than one billion artillery rounds to russia which is using on its worn ukraine. this is according to a south korea ruling party in law member briefed by the agency. ukraine some agency services russian strikes hit some 118 towns and villages across ukraine and villages across ukraine in 24 hours. that's the highest number of attacks this year. japanese prime minister's latest stimulus package will include $144 billion of spending. bloomberg has obtained a draft of the plans, to include measures to cushion the impact of inflation, raise wages and
8:10 pm
offer support for domestic investments be a the package comes as they faced declining public support with price hikes outpacing wage gains. still ahead here on bloomberg daybreak asia, more from the barclays asia forum. our exclusive interview with the bank ceo. the co is just minutes away. we will talk to former world bank chief economist carmen right heart about today's bad news conference and treasury refunding announcement. this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com
8:11 pm
♪ ♪ ♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make- everyday products, designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that- i need a breakthrough card. like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more. plus unlimited 2% cash back on
8:12 pm
all other purchases. and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas- a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly. haslinda: welcome back to "daybreak asia". coming to you at barclays asia forum here in singapore. we want to welcome our bloomberg
8:13 pm
television viewers and radio listeners all over the world. joining us exclusively is the group ceo at barclays. good to have you with us. >> it's been wonderful to join you, thank you for covering our conference now in our 17th year. haslinda: 70 years in the lion city, congratulations on that. people say their earnings have been pretty disappointed two years in a row with your earnings. and a market perspective. how do you view it? >> i don't think it's two years, i think we had a quarter that was difficult. in one particular element in that interest margin, which is an indicated -- indication of peaking rates in the u.k.. we were not very different from the other u.k. banks, but we other trend for some of them. there's a broader question we spoke about at our earnings call. which is the investor
8:14 pm
announcement which was due in early february, which will talk about what our shareholders should expect from us in terms of returns, in terms of the competition of returns and how we are running our businesses and how much we will share with them. i'm really looking forward to doing that in february. haslinda: talk to us about your review as you head into it. what will be the areas of focus as there are particular businesses you would like to zoom in on to drive that growth? >> in a way, you have to look at the bank, if you look at it over 15 years and you've gone through -- if you begin in 2015 or so, we had a time after the financial crisis when there was a lot of cleanup happening. you see regulatory settlements, legacy like ppi and the u.k. all of that and they need to build up capital led to a yields of return of single-digit are ote, and this was in the
8:15 pm
2015-2019 stage, roughly speaking. single-digit are ote's and capitalization building up in the bank. the bank used to have a ct one of around 10%. if we actually use the calculations of five years ago, that 14 will be more like 16. spending money, investing in that and building it up your brief also been investing in our investing banking business in markets and trading business. then there is a time when there was a question, should barclays be in investment banking. and if it was, would it be any good at it? we are the biggest investment bank outside of the top five domicile in the u.s. we have been successful. in the next phase i think we have an investment bank ad scale and we have to focus on the businesses around it, which are generally ir te and tell our shareholders, more clearly than
8:16 pm
we have in the past few years, how much of the returns will accrue to that. haslinda: you talk about are ote. capital generation as well, pretty good. yet, barclays has been undervalued. how do you revise it. what's your understanding of why it is undervalued? >> i think there are two reasons. people first want to know after are ote that we generate in the capital it accrues, what's coming to the shareholder? as i said, in the past, there have been other clear meant side. one was historical regulatory settlements. another has been increased capital requirements. we are coming to what we call the endgame now and i think we have a much clearer idea in the u.k. in the u.s. of what those requirements are. we have to run ourselves well so we don't produce negative surprises are positive ones. neither is really very good. run ourselves in the productive mode manner and deliver
8:17 pm
predictable and no understandable returns to our shareholders. haslinda: you talked about wanting to reduce were taking actions to cut structural costs. what you mean by that? >> the bank, since 2019, with covid, with everything else has not looked at its own efficiency and our workforce has grown in many areas, and at the same time we grew it for a lot of projects and investments. many of those projects are coming to an end. obviously we will look to redeploy staff in other areas, but there will be some areas where we can become more efficient, and that's what we will do. i think it cuts across different activities which we do and i think if you look at the cost income ratios of our various divisions, they are slightly higher than the competition and we should get to a level that's more akin to the competition.
8:18 pm
haslinda: does cutting costs mean a reduction in your workforce, whether globally, in asia, and what with the impact fee in this part of the world? >> it is a reduction in workforce, generally speaking. in asia we have very booming economies and we also have a very booming business. fortunately, it is far less likely to impact this region. haslinda: is there way of part to the numbers, and where might the cuts be done, with peter investment banking front office, is there a sense you can provide? >> there is a way of quantifying, but i would rather keep that discussion to february. in terms of businesses, it is not so much business specific as trying to look at all of our businesses and get them to productivity and efficiency that we think benchmarks well to our competition. so it will be more or less
8:19 pm
indifferent areas in different businesses. haslinda: you are optimistic about asia, where are the growth markets? >> i think you have to take a very long view. at least 20-30 years. barclays started in singapore 50 years ago, as you mentioned. we started with nine people, and a 90,000 found annual budget. now the numbers are much larger. but it was the vision of those people than to invest with their dollar bond trading. in the same way we have investments in india or we have a full-fledged capability in banking and wealth. we have a large trading center in singapore. we've got it in hong kong and in tokyo. i think asia, generally speaking, is growing at a much faster rate than the west. the west is going through a bit of a growth spurt. certainly more than europe and the u.k. are. thinking should grow at the rate of gdp over the long term.
8:20 pm
that means, for us, it's important to be in asia where there is growth. largely we do some private banking, which means it is the ability to connect with corporate clients and institutions in asia and to help them connect with the capital markets in london and new york. haslinda: we talk about asia growing, but when you look at a key market like china, it's actually slowing down from what it is used to. 8%, possibly four or less. how are you looking at china especially for your wealth management business? here largely in institutional business. and wealth, it would be ambitious for us to think of china right now, we should do better in the u.k.. in china itself, there are many countries in the world that would take 4% in china has accumulated a lot of capital, a lot of skill, and their are excesses and parts of the chinese economy and real estate, but the technological progress
8:21 pm
is really strong. the entire clean energy economy cannot exist without chinese components in chinese raw materials. even cars are beginning to occupy a greater space. so you cannot ignore china, you have to think about china and helping chinese companies connect to the world. india is growing very well and so are the parts of this region. but what we do is concentrated in the major trading centers and major economies. haslinda: we are hearing japan has been the strongest market. give assistance of what you are seeing in the plans and japan. >> we have been in japan for a very long time. it took 30 years. so you have to be patient some time. interest rates, the stock market, japanese companies, japanese banks. we are very large participants in the tokyo stock exchange. one of the things we have
8:22 pm
invested in asia consistently over many years is what we call our crime -- prime business. allowing people to trade equities and we provide agency connections to all the major exchanges in asia. it's one of our specialties. we do that in tokyo and in hong kong and we continue to invest in that. haslinda: thank you for your time. it has been a pleasure. >> thank you very much and for being here. haslinda: group ceo at barclays. vonnie: haslinda almond in singapore. you take it a round up of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. bloomberg's subscribers kalee dayb on the terminal. it's available on mobile and the bloomberg anywhere app and you can customize your settings so you only get news on the industries and assets and care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
8:23 pm
8:24 pm
8:25 pm
vonnie: qualcomm shares are higher after posting a better-than-expected revenue forecast. bert su keenan has been looking closely at the results. su: we saw the extended trading as qualcomm came in with a surprisingly better-than-expected outlook and noting that handset sales in china are expected to increase this quarter. that is a critical market because existing phones are what a lot of the chinese customers tend to hold onto, and that hurts demand for chips. coming in the quarter was pretty clear that it was not clear this speed and sizes. qualcomm, the largest seller cava better-than-expected forecast in terms of sales. seize the sales rebound particularly in china and set on the conference call this the of 35% increase from chinese
8:26 pm
handset makers. not in impressive be, not a large snapback, but a lot of analysts say it shows that recovery is underway. important to point out fiscal fourth-quarter profit fell in revenue dropped some 24%, but this was much better than analysts were expecting. handset related sales, we should point out, were down some 27% in the fourth quarter and chips for internet related devices, those sales fell by 31%. that shows you the trough that the industry hit pretty much in the fourth quarter. like a lot of other chipmakers tied to the waiting demand for consumer electronics. qualcomm has seen its business sack. a has underperformed a lot of the other chipmakers who have done well in the past year. that this move did she hear the stock and it's expected that this three to 4% trade will
8:27 pm
offer a pump thursday as it opens. it's important to point out qualcomm mentioned it reiterated on the conference call that they are starting to look to other products outside of the slumping of phone sales that they have been tied to. they are working to get into the pc market and that was part of the big discussion in extended trading. directing. haidi: let's get you to hong kong where annabelle has a look at ship related stocks moving in the session. annabelle: we are half an hour into the session for trading in asia. the i.t. sector is one of the biggest traders. we had sk hynix final earnings early this week. it just tells us the worst of the chip sector slump is over. we are seeing pit bulls for some of these cheaply names in asia. also earnings focuses toyota.
8:28 pm
we had that company reporting its earnings yesterday during the session. the headline was that a boost in its operating income forward guidance for the year period he saw that stock closing up 4.7 percent but the rally extended on the wall street session. again, it is the day to story because analysts are saying these numbers are positive for the company and its suppliers. a quick check if you move to cosmetic stocks because here is a different story. we had estee lauder out overnight, cutting is for your outlook on troubles in china and the middle east. shares of that company were down more than 21% or as much as 21% on wednesday. the firm is setting pressure in the asian travel retail business. you can see how that's really so, you've got the power of xfinity at home. now take it outside with xfinity mobile. like speed? it's the fastest mobile service around. with the best price for two lines of unlimited. only $30 bucks a line per month. that's hundreds in savings a year when you wave bye to the other guys.
8:29 pm
all on the most reliable 5g network nationwide. you really shouldn't walk out the front door without it. switch today at xfinitymobile.com.
8:30 pm
8:31 pm
haidi: breaking news what it comes to trade numbers out of australia at the moment, this is what we see for exports, the month on month number. we see a contraction of 1.4%, that is really reversing from the 4.5 percent. 1.4% when it comes to trade balance. exports month on month seeing a jump of -- let me just correct myself. exports month on month seeing a contraction of 1.4%. in month on month seeing a gain of 7.5%, reversing that 1% contraction we saw in the previous month. when it comes to the exports number, expectations were really set for an extension of that 4.5% gains on the previous month of august. but exports moderated with contraction of almost 1.5%. we are seeing a broader outlook when it comes to the trading
8:32 pm
relationship with china and more of a normalization of the trade relationship now as the prime minister has to china later on this week after a three-year trade battle. we are also seeing some signs of optimism when it comes to the major export of iron ore trading above $120 in this week alone. piercing september imports rising by 7.5%. that trade surplus coming in at $6.7 billion under that 9.5 billion that was estimated. he are watching pond markets very keenly, given that we do really see that mirroring of what we suffer treasuries across australia and new zealand this morning. annabelle: take a look at them of susie and the aussie tenure. the qb 10-year. they are huge retreats coming through this morning even though hsbc is among both saying the rbnz will not be cutting until the end of 2024. upon moves are very much driving the action across the session because we are seeing that play
8:33 pm
out in equities. to see the kospi is a big gainer in the session. currencies wise, if that story of a softer dollar coming through. they korean won is leading that move higher against the greenback. tech earnings good playing into that because we have qualcomm with the better-than-expected numbers, but signaling another sign that the worst of the chip slump was over. another reason that investors could buy up the local currency. let's change on because a risk on session, broader indexes up on the 1%. there is the seasonality factor that plays into the move. taking a look at the imap function here you can see in november, if you go back on a five year basis, this is typically a time when stocks will gain around 4.8%. so perhaps this optimism, there's something to that could tell us that set to last a little bit longer. haidi: let's get back to the barclays asia forum in singapore where haslinda is just getting
8:34 pm
ready to speak with our next guest. we have really been seeking views from a number of number to be guest today in terms of what their reaction to that fed decision was. was it perhaps, a little bit more hawkish than what markets are coming throughout the moment? we are still seeing that title positivity when it comes to risk sentiment here in asia. following on the gains we saw on wall street, following the gains across equities as well as bonds at the moment. we continue to see how long this relief rally on the hopes of tough fed tightening potentially being over will last. we are watching tech, given the onset of earnings and some of the broader concerns when it comes to demand, including key markets out of china. taking a look at foxconn, the maker of the apple iphone. but it is also taking a big leap into evey's. we spoke exclusively with the chairman and ceo and he told us about why he believes how the company can deliver on a
8:35 pm
dramatic change of direction. flex after four years we are becoming more and more excited because the more we learned about this new industry, the more we believe this is the right industry for it to go into. thus cars experience in its scale and it creates big enough. her spirit it's for our competitors to go into. like subjects the opportunity for foxconn, in terms of the market size, and also for the company's capabilities? flex for market size we did a study will we started about three or four years ago. at that time the market at 2025 was estimated at 600 billion u.s. dollars. so this is big enough if we can get 10% of it would be 60
8:36 pm
billion. in foxconn is running at about 270, that kind of market with that kind of revenue. was 60 billion it's about 2.25 percent around that. >> you are building a factory from the ground up in thailand, you bought a factory for this project in ohio. first of all, what if you think we visited the facility in lordstown, ohio? >> it's a huge facility. there's a lot of capabilities. we think we continue a lot by converting that factory to an evening factory. no soap because the surrounding environment, they used to do 500,000 cars per year at that
8:37 pm
kind of capacity. definitely, you have to have enough supply chain in the area. that's to support that kind of production. with the supply chain almost there, with the location, with the space that is big enough, we think you would be very good for the production there. >> you mentioned the auger fee, came talk about future expansion because you are going to have to be closer to the markets, so, where do you think the next steps will be? >> currently we have a factory in ohio, and we're going to build a factory in thailand. and i think the next big when we are going to build will be in india. following that, we are thinking about building len in here.
8:38 pm
we are also in the process of building one in saudi arabia. so there are three new places that we are going to build factories. so i thinking of playing to do. haidi: thoughts come ceo speaking with reed stevenson. take a look at how we are tracking the big moves across the bond market treasuries which is exceptional in terms of the past year through asia. we are seeing treasuries just extending those gains. we are also sing potential for further upside there as yields, according to the mliv survey, may still have room to climb. so that is really a question as to whether we see that treasury selloff presuming before the end of the year. it's looking like it's pretty close to over at this point if the fed actually follows through with these market expectations
8:39 pm
that they are winding up the most aggressive rate that brought in a generation. take a look at currencies. some pretty big beneficiaries when it comes to dollar asia trading pair. the lawn is one stand out, the biggest gain in just about over two months when it comes to trading in the korean won. that drop in the u.s. dollar with these hopes, potentially that the fed is done hiking, according to almost half of the respondents in our mliv survey. that optimism really driving the bond market to one of the biggest one-day rallies ever and also driving the greenback lower. let's head back to the barclays asia forum in singapore. haslinda is ready to speak with our next guest. but a day to have this conversation. haslinda: you are right, we saw that rally across asset classes. the big question is whether investors are reading it right. joining us now is fester at
8:40 pm
howard county's school. she served as chief economist for the world bank. carmen, we saw the rally and markets. you say when it comes to the fed, there is no change. >> they had a figure factored in market expectations, and in doing so, they did not react, so they confirmed what the market was expecting, which was no change. and indeed, there was no change. i think, however, what the market might take on the market is there has been throughout this episode, a confusion between what is a rate hike what is reversal. and i think, is the market correct in believing that tightening episode is almost over, yes. is that the same thing as the fed is going to turn around and lower rates again quickly and we're going to exit from a high
8:41 pm
for a longer, that's a very different question and i don't think that's the case. in effect, i think the market crash we had earlier in treasuries was a delayed response to the realization that higher for longer was more of a reality than they first envisioned. haslinda: this is an economy that is very strong. axis of 3%, gdp for four quarters. wages are up, wages are higher, consumption is higher, can the fed afford to be pausing right now? flex might take on the fed, the reason for not ruling out another quarter-point, but now moving ahead with it, and not clearly signaling that that would be the case, is that chairman powell and members of the committee are also looking
8:42 pm
at credit conditions, and in their expectations, certainly, as you correctly point out, their lack of tightening, further tightening is not predicated on economic activity, but predicated, largely in my view, on expectations that credit conditions will contributed to the tightening cycle that we will see a continuation of tighter credit standards, which could ultimately lead to a credit crunch. helping tightening along. but that is a risky proposition as well, as i said, because, the strength of the economic data certainly isn't signaling, this is time to declare victory. i have to conclude with the fact
8:43 pm
that declarations stash premature declarations of victory when it comes to inflation, has been a real danger zone for the fed in the 1970's and they hope they are aware of that. haslinda: -- haidi: it has been a cycle of u.s. exceptionalism when it comes to the most durable elements of the economy. the contrast that to china. obviously this global engine of growth has slowed down. what do you make of the global implications of a lower growth for longer china as being the new level? >> the implication is very significant and a lot of the work that i've done over the course of the year on the global financial crisis, when europe and the u.s. were mired in the deepest recession since world war ii, china was the engine of growth, which meant also that the emerging markets were very
8:44 pm
poignant, they were kept poignant by high commodity prices, find new lending from china, by a rising volume of trade, and we really don't have a locomotive out of what is still a very risky global situation. europe is clearly slowing. the u.s., no signs yet, but not ruling it out. but that locomotive effect, which i said, had very big consequences for emerging markets, and therefore sustaining global growth, sustaining global trade in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, that's not here, which could add to the frailties of a more volatile
8:45 pm
global economy. we certainly hadn't lack shocks in the last few years, and shocks at a lower growth base are more dangerous than when you are going into them with stronger activity. haslinda: we talk about the risks out there, emerging markets have a huge amount of debt. 60% of them are either in that distress or on the way there. a new playbook is needed, how should that look like? carmen: i think one big difference between this tightening cycle, and paul volcker's tightening cycle was it brought the emerging markets, the middle and high income emerging markets down. these were the mexico's, the brazil's, turkey. now the effect has been largely
8:46 pm
concentrated on low income countries, which don't have the same impact on capital markets. they are not systemically important to capital markets. as sad as that sounds, that's effect. that brings me to your question, which is, delay is a real danger. that the crises are there, that they need that restructuring, that they need to deal with that overhangs. that means that the creditors beginning to take losses, but their pressure to do that isn't the same because it's not really impacting the global finances in a meaningful way as it did back in the early 1980's. i think a way forward is needed. the common framework so far that was the child of the g20 has
8:47 pm
been a nonstarter. we really have seen very little evidence. the now years have passed and chad was never restructured, it was the first applicant so, i am very concerned that we are entering a time in which than not -- the long drawnout debt crises, in many low income countries, is the real reality. the middle income countries, as a group, there are of course exceptions, turkey is not doing the same as india or the same as brazil, but the middle income countries have held up better during this rate hike, certainly then in that error -- era. i think that we have a
8:48 pm
combination now of high volatility and high leverage and that's a recipe for accidents. we've entered exiting from the loafer along long on low forever era, a new era of higher risks. let me conclude by saying that, it's not just tightening from the west, it's tightening from the east. china's overseas lending, which was very significant through the 2000s, peaks around 2019 now we are seeing net repayments. so there as been wet has been a sudden stop in lending from that end. haslinda: we thank you for your insight period, -- carmen reinhart a professor. back to you. haidi: lots of warnings, lots of cautious food for thought. a lot more of those
8:49 pm
conversations are coming up at the barclays asia forum with haslinda, including that exclusive interview with the banks asia-pacific chief right here on bloomberg television. ♪ the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make- everyday products, designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that- i need a breakthrough card. like ours!
8:50 pm
with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more. plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases. and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas- a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours. vonnie: singapore's financial
8:51 pm
regulator has banned dps from acquiring new business ventures for six months after digital banking services outages. let's get more from bloomberg's choice in singapore. you don't often see punishment for these kinds of outages. why were these disruption such a big deal? joyce: it's such a big deal because, in singapore, a lot of people are using less cash nowadays, so we transact so much via phones and online banking in these disruptions from the biggest bank in the country has -- he has caused a lot of inconvenience. in singapore causes outrage when people can't pay for their meals or taxicabs, transfer money to their friends. we are so used to living without cash today in the country that when these things happen, it just creates a lot of angst and inconvenience to people. as the outgoing chief said the
8:52 pm
reason it was such a big deal and is unacceptable is because it's a biggest bank in the country and has the biggest number of customers and has more than its fair share of disruptions, digital banking disruptions this year so far. for a bank that has a tagline of live more in bank less, this is pretty i want -- this is pretty ironic. haidi: what actions did we see them take? joyce: from yesterday we saw the director stop m&a for the next six months, and also to reduce its branch and atm network. this is so it can really focus on making sure it's technologies are robust and resilient, and doesn't have these disruptions anymore, and hopefully doesn't have these disruptions anymore. vonnie: joyce, thank you. great story. singapore central bank mentioned
8:53 pm
the managing director weighing new measures to fight money laundering following the recent seizure of more than $2 billion in assets from a suspected gang. the outgoing directors says, big banks will be punished if correct procedures are not put in place. >> some people believe that actually enhances our image as a clean and no nonsense because we moved very strongly against a very large network. the asset seizures are, even by world standards, quite high, and that enhances. this is a place that you don't mess with. right. vonnie: the managing director there. plenty more to come right here on "daybreak asia". this is bloomberg. ♪
8:54 pm
8:55 pm
haidi: take a look at markets that are trading at the moment. one development in one stock we are watching in the sydney session's origin energy. we seen the top shareholder rejecting that latest brookfield bids saying that the bid, even renewed, is substantially below origins of value. that's according to -- that in an emailed statement of
8:56 pm
rejection for that renewed brookfield aig bid say they intend to vote its shares against the best and final offer , substantially below our estimate of origins long-term value. we saw brookfield raising their bid for origin energy to 12.5 billion u.s. dollars. that's about an 8% improvement after the previous bid had been rejected. we are seeing a sea of green as the risk rally continues after fed chair powell hinting the fed is done with hikes. being sure to cross wall street through bond markets across equity markets and continuing into the asian session. that is it for "daybreak asia". our markets coverage continues with the start of trading in hong kong, shanghai and shenzhen. this is bloomberg. ♪
8:57 pm
8:58 pm
(jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals so you aren't hungry or fatigued. after i started taking release, the weight just started falling off. since starting golo and taking release, i've gone from a size 12 to a 4.
8:59 pm
before golo, i was hungry all the time and constantly thinking about food. after taking release, that stopped. with release, i didn't feel that hunger that comes with dieting. which made the golo plan really easy to stick to. since starting golo and release, i have dropped seven pant sizes and i've kept it off. golo is real, our customers are real, and our success stories are real. why not give it a try?
9:00 pm

36 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on