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>> welcome. we are counting down to the major market opens in asia. haidi: the top stories this hour, stocks are set for a positive open coming of the u.s. thanksgiving holiday. discord within opec-plus. china is considering loans. to the end of the property crisis. qatar says the israel-hamas truths will start friday morning. this is the picture across the open as we get into the start of the staggered cash open here in sydney. not a great deal in terms from the u.s.. we had the thanksgiving holiday. very thin liquidity. we are still primed for higher trading here in asia.

we have lack of guidance from wall street. the dollar is edging a little bit lower. not much of a move when it comes to the aussie dollar. it is unchanged. we are watching some of these names in particular given the policy overtures from beijing and how it is creating more downside after that recent frenetic rally. yvonne: beijing really trying to cool this rally. given the exuberance we are seeing across property stocks. the prospect of more stimulus. with u.s. markets closed, we will see this liquidity. we are still dealing with the strength of the currency. that seems to really be helping.

we are watching new zealand with a little bit of downside. let's get to our top story. we have learned that local banks in china will be allowed to offer unsecured loans to qualified developers. as beijing intensifies efforts to try to turn around the real estate crisis. it has certainly lifted the markets. what do we know so far? >> we had a big rally in property stocks. they are on track for one of their best. it has really been like that. we know there is more funding on the way. this is all of the scoops we have had this week. we are understanding the types

of loans that will be issued. thanks will be able to offer unsecured loans. typically a builder would need to post land or assets in order to secure that type of financing. haidi: what were the loans be used for? >> this is going to be used for working capital. these are not used for long-term assets. the idea of putting a cash into this is it frees you up to put money into other parts. beijing wants to see these property developers.

taking a look at the loans to the banks. officials really want a resolution to this. they went to see more financing going into it. the situation is looking better. banks would be allowed to take the lead on aiding a distressed developer. and also working with other banks to meet those financing plans. that is not without risks. but banks could be exempt from being liable for bad loans. yvonne: i am wondering if all the short-sellers are looking at country garden and weather that

moved the needle in any way. in terms of allaying concerns about whether these developers can finish these uncompleted homes. >> that is really the big question. all of these measures have been unsuccessful. would they be confident enough to go out and buy a property? there are so many unfinished property projects in china at this time. we will be hearing from sources. will this be sufficient? we have heard positive reviews of these measures. haidi: the latest in hong kong. the opec-plus meeting next week

will now be held online instead of in person. as oil prices slumped. let's bring in our agent -- asia energy reporter. tell us where we are at. >> good morning. that meeting has been delayed. it will take place on thursday of next week. it is a logistical challenge. it was expected to be in dubai. the climate conference is opening. a chance to have a meeting in vienna. why are we having this delay? there is still some wrangling going on inside opec-plus. including angola and nigeria.

we are talking about overall production next year. that is putting some pressure on producer nations. yvonne: given the tensions, what are the chances divisions could deepen? >> before the delayed of this meeting, there were some expectations that saudi arabia would extend voluntary curbs. that would it would announces they would take that into next year. that will be agreed next week. what is less clear is the extent other members will be encouraged to make additional curves of their own. that still seems uncertain.

what the market is really looking for is some clarity. on production levels in 2024. that is really important. already we are expecting a glut of supply. as demand weakens in the new year. some of the data we are already seeing points to that issue. we have had healthy stock numbers out of the u.s. in the past day or two. that outlook is looking a little precarious. >> let's get to the geopolitical element now. the truce between israel and hamas is expected to take place in a couple of hours. to free hostages and prisoners held by both sides.

u.s. state department officials are saying this is the biggest breakthrough we have had since the onset of the war. we know it is not that hopeful in terms of what comes after this. >> it is not. the conflict has been going on for more than six weeks now. it is the best moment they have had to date. it is also incredibly fragile. this is expected to begin at 7:00 a.m. local time. the hostages are expected to come out about 4:00 p.m. what happens after that? everyone is talking about that. we know under the terms of the pause in fighting that it can be extended by a day for every extended hostage.

hamas will need to defend itself. everybody is back getting involved in it. there have been questions on if this impacts israel. whether their soldiers start to get distracted. they have to think about going home now that they are not fighting immediately. israel will keep going here. yvonne: what is the next step in this? obviously it is a breakthrough. israel said they will continue fighting. if a temporary cease-fire can change the case of the war. >> there is a lot of hope out there. cutter -- qatar said this could

be the first stage in heading 20 cease-fire. the first word from israel seems to be very strong. they are not about to stop this campaign. all the horror that you see in gaza. 14,000 people have been killed. 6000 children among them. the attack on israel was horrific. that is highly unlikely. it will take a lot of international pressure. the u.s. understands where israel is coming from. perhaps israel can be more careful.

i don't think there is much likelihood of that. haidi: it is interesting to see the issue of proportionality in the response becoming a bigger issue. even when this cease-fire happens, what about the role of hezbollah? >> that is very interesting. perhaps hezbollah comes out and says as long as israel respects this truce, they will hold off. they fired rockets at israel yesterday. it is an interesting thing. they have a level where neither of them takes it too seriously. if it goes above that, it could escalate. they insists they will keep attacking israel with everything

they have. hezbollah will be watching that closely. the west bank as well. there has been violence there. all of these peripheral issues are important. we come back to them being backed by iran. it is about what the thinking is there. having some degree of contact. yvonne: thank you so much for an update on what to expect out of israel and the next coming hours. there are other geopolitical stories we are tracking. talks in taiwan have broken up after a tense public meeting. the candidate walked out of discussions after an hour following some acrimonious exchanges. that does cast a vote for a china friendly alliance. bloomberg has learned a trade

made in between the u.s. and european union is likely to be delayed again. sources say the trade and technology council is expected to happen early next year. both sides have been deadlocked. the meeting was expected to be in october before it was pushed to mid december. germany will suspend a limit on borrowing. it will be part of a revised budget presented next week. the top part of germany said it was unconstitutional. haidi: still ahead, we get an outlook on china. the government is making its most forceful push ship to put an end to the property crisis.

but first, here why affinity management is sticking with high-growth. we will be talking about that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ i was on a work trip when the pulmonary embolism happened. but because i have 23andme, i was aware of that gene. that saved my life.

♪ haidi: we are just about 20 minutes into the start of cash trading here in sydney. we are seeing some names on this policy cool down. energy is the biggest gainer.

the energy origin take over as well. this opec-plus discord. energy names are one of the biggest outperformer's. kiwi stocks are pretty flat at the moment. we have the formality of the announcement of the coalition following the election. nikkei futures are looking pretty tepid at this point. given that it is a holiday themed session coming out of the u.s. let's bring in our guest. she is an investment specialist. how the gains be going forward. >> if you look at the last year, it has been particularly strong in the u.s..

markets have not seen a big rally. we are seeing more cyclicals coming through. it could be a year of being very selective. haidi: does that selective in this include china. you have had recent trips to the mainland. you said confidence is still quite low. do you think these efforts of late will make a meaningful difference? >> i think we have all been disappointed. growth has not come through as much as we wanted. sentiment remains really negative.

there is a preface for india, japan, indonesia. if you look at the activity levels in china, we have started to see some bottoming out of activity levels. they continue to decline over the last year. there are definitely some green shoots. i think measures on the property side will be very important. we expect to see an ongoing commitment from this government. this will be an important step forward. we prefer to take our exposure to china. yvonne: you are looking at maybe adding a little bit in terms of cyclicals. despite the visibility we are getting on growth right now. you said you sold out mcdonald's. can you tell us what is behind

that trade? >> there is stefan levay a lot of space for companies like mcdonald's. things get really volatile and uncertain. you need to have a good amount of defensiveness in your portfolio. as we continue to see those expectations for growth to start to come through next year, we start to look at broader defenses and growth. some of the companies like the second largest producer of memory, you can really see that demand massively accelerate in the shorter term. there are some selective names that need to expand.

that is what we are hopeful into next year. broadening beyond the magnificent seven. if you exclude those. yvonne: i want to talk about corporate governments. i'm guessing we have close the chapter on that. what did you make of this week? >> it has been surprising what a big deal it was. every single person talking about it. even people who are not in the markets.

fast forward to the final outcome. we think it is still a net positive for microsoft that has that agreement. they still have the founder in charge. they have a clear strategy and structure. microsoft continues to have that agreement. they continue to have good relationships. we continue to see that benefit from the business already starting to flow through microsoft. we have recently done a lot of trips and seen the management team and we think the case for microsoft continues to grow into next year. just in general what we are

seeing in demand. yvonne: i know nvidia is one of your big holdings. how should we look at ai in 2024? do you think there are ways to look at this differently now that we have seen a massive rally? >> it is a time to be more selective. there are a lot of companies who have rallied. they have gone too far. you can see the benefit of ai coming through to the bottom line. just the guidance of the upgrades they are giving into the fourth quarter and into next year. that is really strong. one of the key things that is a risk in general is the geopolitical risks.

that is what we are seeing with nvidia. how these companies react to some of those. those risks. yvonne: great to have you. a client portfolio manager and specialist. we have plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ yvonne: some inflation numbers

coming out of japan. i would say it is less than expected. so things a modest price appreciation. we are talking about 3.3% for october. core inflation at 2.9%. this street was looking for something like 3%. fresh food and energy are the big ones. seeing a bit of moderation when it comes to prices there. we are certainly seeing that. with see how it all plays out. our reporter is watching yen very closely. inflation picking up again in some ways.

what do you make of this report? >> i think it is not exactly what the authorities wanted. the cost push it still evident. that is evidence. this will get us to the next base. heading into this final part of the month. and the year. for now it is largely as expected. a bit of a mixed bag. yvonne: that is true.

obviously the strength that we see coming back to this, it really has been driven by what we have seen. does it make sense to position to a lower downside? >> i think the market really try to run with it. there is obviously a long list of funds. you are quite right. while the policy divergence is still there. this is a bit of a low yield.

it is just as long as some of it there. i think the markets have a better chance of that. in terms of policy. going into the new year. probably into april. the fed is treading so carefully. the market will run with that. that is probably a good cell. >>? ? where to from the dollar you can see that rally in 10 years. >> everybody wants to call it first.

that is probably not a bad idea. in terms of getting rid of that and going short, and an oath that is there yet. before we start flipping positions in terms of the dollar. >> thank you. let's turn our focus to china. most economists will wait until early next year to cut policy rates. it is the other forms of easing.

reserve ratios. staying put at 2.5%. that was the premiums -- previous estimate. maybe monetary policy will play second fiddle to some of the fiscal measures we have seen. bloomberg continues to come up with scoops saying that china may allow banks to offer unsecured short-term loans to qualified developers for the first time. in a major push to ease the property crisis that is dragging down growth in the economy. our guest joins us in our hong kong studios. always great to have you. i'm talking about unsecured loans. what are the liquidity concerns among these developers right now? >> more recently we have seen them more frequent and forceful and actionable.

more targeted. it all started from july of this year. that meeting paved the way for these policies. initially this is to boost demand. making it more affordable and accessible. sales soft and. that is because of the potential virus concern. recent measures address that. yvonne: you are encouraged by it. does it do anything in terms of reversing this downtrend in home

prices? >> it is a positive. it reduces the risk. recently we seen the risk of default. two relatively healthy firms. i don't think these measures would immediately stop the downturn of the market. it could avoid an overshooting of the market. >> what do you see policy makers leading to do in addition to this as we get into 2024 given how entrenched 70 factors of this slowdown are? >> in terms of economic activity , entering the fourth quarter, we see some recent data suggest

some softening in november. the private sector may be the main drag. in november we may see a weakening of the manufacturing sector. from the policy side, they may continue to divide policy support. we expect a cut before the year in. fiscal spending may accelerate. in the first quarter, china will still benefit from that. also supported by the policies. we believe that will be achievable. that would be equivalent to an annual growth of 5.4%. on the two-year average basis,

it is just 4.2%. at the end of the year, there will still be potential growth. that suggests that for the government, growth is still a priority. yvonne: if we are seeing that property will be is smaller contributed to gdp growth, what will it be the impact on jobs? >> after a couple of years of contraction, last year it was at 10%. this year a 9% drop. this has declined. even with similar contraction next year, the drag on the economy it will be less.

the market correction has yet to gain force. we will miss u.s. contraction next year. yvonne: what will be the offset? will those offset the drags we are seeing on property now? >> i think it will help but not fully offset. even with the recent expansion of those, that includes renewable industries. we see a declining share of the property sector. it is less than half of the property sector. yvonne: we have appreciated from 2% last year.

a lot of that has to do with the fed. maybe it is a little easier these days given the narrative about cutting rates next year. can this sustain and does it give them more room to year? >> the recent move shows a bias of strengthening. those strengths are beyond what can be explained. that may reflect the view that in the past few months, depreciation has been excessive. it carries a risk of overshooting. the recent position by the pboc is likely to have a short

position. next year we forecast 4.8%. that is not a very impressive number but i think it is about growth. the u.s. dollar is likely to be weaker. that will create a more friendly environment for next year. yvonne: thank you so much. for joining us here in our hong kong studios. we are watching all things china. >> it is kind of stabilizing. perhaps an unintended

consequence. of all these measures coming through for china. a sustained move to the outside. yesterday they -- the big news was beijing would crack down on any kind of speculation on those moves in the market. we have seen this pulling back a little bit. you are seeing a little bit more weakness. over five days, we have seen iron ore prices going up. perhaps still a little bit more downside to come. let's look at stock moves. we have a high concentration on the aussie minors. we saw a big drop coming through in the session today. you are seeing that dissipating. ozzie stocks generally are higher. volumes are very thin given we

are in the thanksgiving holiday in the u.s. the green on the screen points to a broader trend we are seeing in asian equities. asia-pacific stocks are perhaps at the point where we are turning the corner. you are at the point where the 50 day moving average is starting to converge with the 100 day moving average. that is a bullish indicator. it tells us we could have sustained move to the upside. haidi: what a difference a year makes. we will continue to watch for that and see that technical indicator. if it proves to be true again for this turnaround. a lot more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ haidi: new zealand's national party will form a center-right government with three smaller parties. the formation come six weeks after the general elections. it feels like much longer than that. we finally have a look at the new government. >> it has taken some time.

six weeks since the election. the developments really picked up when they got final election results that showed the national party was going to need the support of a couple of smaller parties to reach a majority in parliament. we got the formal confirmation today that they have agreed to terms. these partners are the libertarian party and the nationalist party of new zealand. coalitions are very common. this is the person we have had three parties inside of one. yvonne: what we know in terms of policies? what has been agreed? >> the main thing is what is not surprising is they are going to cut government spending.

that is something all three parties can agree on. tax cuts will not be partly funded by allowing foreigners to buy expensive homes. that is something new zealand voters opposed. it has been taken off the agenda. the other thing is changes to the central bank. a focus on fighting inflation. there are additional moves they are looking at. including some time frames in terms of policy delivery. and potentially moving the central bank back away from a policy committee to a sole decision-maker model. that was the case before the last set of reforms by the previous government. >> it is a huge shift.

how different is this government from the last one? >> it is incredible to think it was only three years ago that she had this landslide electoral victory. despite fighting the initial stages of the pandemic, people got tired of the restrictions and the lockdowns. we have seen a swing to the right. it is not like the outcomes we have seen in other countries. particularly given the libertarian party coalition and the nationalist party. they are going to pull that party further to the left. yvonne: thank you.

our wellington bureau chief joining us. more to come. thiis bloomberg. ♪ at helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

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futures. our asia stock reporters joining us now. why are we seeing these sharp discounts. >> shortselling is banned in south korea. we did not see that before the shortselling band. this is very unusual. a lot of funds could place bearish bets on that stock. they are not used to selling that. they are selling futures.

more evidence of the theory is that the soft prices have been a target of short-sellers before the van. -- ban. they have been sellers of the single stock future. a lot of investors are using future markets as they cannot short sell in the cash market. haidi: what impact on the cash market are we expected to see from these unusual discounts? >> one of the index we are expecting is a lot more volatility.

one of the analysts told me is the stocks have seen heavy discounts in the future. how this could drive up the volatility. that could challenge steady returns from the market. an increase volatility. rather than in the developed market. south korea could be seeing more volatility going up in the absence of shortselling. and discounts in the future. haidi: our asia stock reporter there with us. these are the stocks we will be watching when trade opens in korea and japan.

oil holding close. opec allies have delayed their meeting. we will see the impacts on petroleum. we have seen quite a bit of resilience when it comes to trading in oil measures here in the sydney session so far. defense related companies could gain after north korea said it is ending agreement aimed at easing military tensions with south korea. we will talk investment strategies. why the fed might not ease that year. also some analysis on the upcoming presidential elections in taiwan. after talks to form a single opposition ticket fell apart. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ i've got enough battery life to get me halfway around the globe. and lower overall costs leave more money in our budget.

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>> this is daybreak: asia. we are coming down to the major market opens. tokyo and south korea. just got those inflation numbers out of japan as well which shows, things are stepping up but not as much is expected when it comes to cost push inflation. certainly a bit of relief there. haidi: doesn't move the needle for the bank of japan either way at this point. adding to a picture of uncertainty going into 2024. we see quite a bit of exuberance across global stocks though. annabelle: we are counting down to the open. it is very thin trading for a session here but we have to pan back from public holiday and south korea coming online. this is the reopen for cash treasuries as well. thanksgiving holiday underway. expecting low trading volumes as a result.

moving averages across the region. let's take a look at what we are seeing here for the start of trade. nikkei 225 coming online to the upside. the end range bound in the session. the key focus for us in japan has been those inflation numbers. you saw cpi gaining 2.9%. less than what economists had been expecting. still it was a quickening in the pace from 2.8% in september. it's about that boj 2% target for a 19th straight month. is this going to be enough to force the boj to think about starting to normalize its policy settings. that's the state of play for japan. markets coming online. let's take a look at what's happening in korea. the kospi and the cost act, fairly steady in the session. trading volumes will be thin. the korean won hovering just at that key psychological 1300

level. it is stuck in that range throughout the course of the week. some rebalancing for the kospi 200 has been announced. we will check those movers in a few minutes. let's change on. of the session. we are keeping an eye on what's happening in the material stocks in particular. trading volume, 30% lower from where it would typically be at the session. the material stocks are the want to be watching here. they are little bit higher even though we are seeing iron or continuing a modest retreat in singapore. that's the singapore contract there. beijing putting out a statement yesterday, trying to cool the rally we have seen since the start of august, being driven by policy support measures that are coming through. something to watch throughout the session with asx 200 a little bit higher. some optimism to end the week. holiday thin trading, low volumes.

haidi: let's bring in chris weston, head of research. what's at the top of mind for you? we are heading for a fourth week of gains. do you expect that resilience to go into the end of the year? have we overpriced expectations of easing? chris: we've seen the u.k. pair back to easing overnight. seems like a reasonable move in the gilt market and u.k. swaps as well. in terms of u.s. easing for next year, i think it's there a bounce. 64 basis points cuts being priced into the next year. a little bit more for december. i think the timing could be massaged a little bit. june is a more realistic situation there. i think there's a little bit of a rates trait there.

equities will be more than them -- a momentum play. we haven't got to that point of complete exuberance yet. if you have a look at market internals, the number of companies above 200 day moving average, we haven't got to that maximum point of stretch. 40% of the companies and the nasdaq are trading at four-week eyes. i feel like there's more juice and the nasdaq, another 600 points higher before we can have a little bit of a fallback before another run-up into year-end. that's where we will look to flip it into january. haidi: to that end, do you see more support for the dollar? chris: say that again. can you repeat the question? haidi: i think we basically ask

you at the same time, what you see for the dollar? chris: ok. it depends on the timeframe. i think it's interesting. if you have a look at the consensus in the market for the next year, the sell side is expecting a modest growth in the u.s. dollar. forecast for traders holds no real informational benefit whatsoever. it does help with the thesis behind what that's going to happen in terms of managing risk. the general consensus is that we see a lot of grind in the u.s. dollar. i'm sympathetic to that because. if you have a look at the starting points for this year, the u.s. has had a very strong q3. 2% growth in q4. that growth number led to a declining and consumption. q3 numbers is when we will get a

knock on payroll number averaging 30 to 50,000 month. you may even get the occasional month where it's going to be net job losses. we will see core pce below 3% and getting down towards target. it's easy to be sympathetic and that argument. the fed don't need restricted rates. they will be looking to cut to bring in more to an equilibrium state. so was of central banks. -- so are the central banks. the idea that the fed is coming onto lower ground but other countries are starting from a large point and working up. yvonne: does that mean that rate differentials, central-bank diversions will be the name of the game when it comes to trading fx? if that's the case, is the end going to be a clear winner here? chris: i don't think it is. it's easy to make that comparison. it's easy to say that the australian benefit -- dollar

could benefit as well. michelle bullocks made it pretty clear that she wants to sit on her hands and be more hawkish than we've seen in previous sessions. you can argue the yen will be the currency into 2024. unless we see a pickup in cross asset volatility, unless we see a decent decline in the rate on the s&p futures going lower, i don't see the end to be a big portfolio hedge apart from that situation. unless you think currencies are overly simplistic, the fact that we will see that divergence, i don't think the yen is going to work that well. i think carrie will come under pressure. carrie has been brilliant, fantastic trade in 2023. i think there will be less of the same. i think yield compression and differentials are going to drive

currency trading in 2024, especially on a real basis. five or seven your durations, looking at the yield differential is what you will be looking at on a real basis. yvonne: what about china? we are starting to see more positivity in terms of the property sector. the prospect of maybe more state support. chemchina surprise -- can china surprise with the year-end rally? chris: absolutely. we are not seeing that at the moment. foreigners aren't seeing the value at this stage. still not convinced that the property space is out of the woods by any means. i think we need to clear the central work council meeting which comes up in mid-december. we will get new targets and growth projections which should be around for -- four to 5%. that will lay the foundations more clearly. the policy statements that we've been seeing is helping.

we've seen reactions and things like iron ore to infrastructure spending. i think the market is not quite convinced. we see those flows really pick up and we see a sustained trend in equity markets. people are not going to chase that well. we have had some the false starts and mainland equities and the hang seng. for me to want to jump on that is a momentum play trend, we need to see those flyers pick and sustain flows and the price action to really respond as well. yvonne: once bitten, twice shy. thank you so much for joining us. have a great weekend. you are watching a little bit more of not just the property story in china but also what's going on in the kospi as well. annabelle: just after the market closed, the korea exchange announced rebalancing moves that will take effect may december. -- mid december.

get taking a look at these additions. you still have these deletions in the bottom. those bottom two will be removed from the kospi 200 by the midpoint of december. the direction for the stocks is to the upside. let's change on. we are tracking how moves in japan are going. taking a look at what's happening in the energy space in particular. we have been watching oil over the course of the week. we have the opec-plus meeting that will be delayed. it will now be held online. there seems to be discord amount -- among the key members. these moves largely to the upside here even though energy prices have really fluctuated over the course of the week. japan shut for a public holiday on thursday. this is the catch up move taking place here. let's change on. we are also taking a look at defense-related names on the topics here.

we did have north korea saying that it's aiming to end reducing military tensions with south korea. we did see south korea names that roast in the price session. today, you have different -- moving to the upside. the direction broadly higher for stocks in the session so far. again, is that holiday for an trading that we are continuing to keep an ion. haidi: talks to form a single opposition ticket for taiwan's presidential poll collapsing after a tense public meeting. we take a look at the turmoil ahead of january's election. economists suggesting that china will wait out until early next year to cut policy rate. we get more of those forecasts, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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yvonne: china's local banks could be allowed to offer unsecured loans to qualified developers. our latest survey of economists is suggesting that china may wait until early next year to cut policy rates. let's bring our roundtable with all of our china reporters here. we have seen not just what you guys have been reporting but also this week a white list and moves we are seeing from policy are much more forceful now, especially when it comes to the property market. how significant is it? >> it's good news after all the defaulting we've seen. the reason is that china will allow banks to offer unsecured

short-term loans to those qualified developers. that would be quite forceful. unlike other types of loans, it would be day-to-day operation capital and potentially that could fray the capital for that repayment. yvonne: what is your take? is it a game changer? >> it does seem like china actually is seriously intensifying these efforts to help developers. when you factor all of this into the list we've been reporting on this week, this idea that they do want these banks to extend financing for these developers does seem like beijing is saying, they are too big to fail. you are seeing that evolution of how this policy is developing. the question is exactly whether these wonders can actually finance these companies without taking on too much risk. that's what we are seeing

beijing work through right now. yvonne: how do you think this will improve the slumping sector overall? even the for -- reversal in home sales. >> i feel like it's more the confidence side. it's trying to be a backstop for the sector. we've seen sales continue to drop. if some of those developers can lever those homes on time, probably we will see the confidence among buyers and the sales improving. that could be a direct catalyst. yvonne: in terms of policy stimulus, we had a survey out. the fiscal side of things will take the lead. monetary policy will take second fiddle. >> that seems to be the case. there is still an opportunity among the economists we surveyed that maybe there's a cut to the reserve ratio by the end of the year. maybe you see shorter term loans

that are changing the rate. maybe that gets cut before the end of the year. in terms of those key policy rates, maybe that is something that economists are thinking the government holds off until next year. we just had that big announcement from the government not too long ago. they are issuing sovereign debt, trying to fund these infrastructure projects. there's that opportunity before the end of the year but in terms of what you consider a big policy rate, that's going to wait until the first quarter of next year. yvonne: certainly the fed discussion is giving them more wiggle room. >> exactly. at this point, they are not as limited as they were before. you've seen pressures alleviate. the currency gives them more opportunity there. ultimately, i think they are in this wait and see mode with monetary policy as they wait to see how these effects of the stimulus takes place.

yvonne: what are we watching next in the credit space? >> we are still having some developers going through restructuring. meanwhile, we have some not yet defaulted still struggling to pay their debts. hopefully the short term loan can help them. it's still early to say. yvonne: thank you so much to pearl and jill. certainly that's going to be the discussion here for the rest of the year. this whole rally we are seeing in property stocks, is this a short-term optimism here right now? have we addressed enough of these liquidity issues to keep this rally going? haidi: we've talked about the high correlation with so many different industries and assets and commodities. iron ore is one of them, when you take a look at the outlook for still demand and what happens to these property

projects that are yet to be completed. we are seeing a down day when it comes to iron ore. down by just about half a percent. staging the retreat from the nine month high. chinese authorities trying to hold a rally in iron ore. we saw it fall by 3.5% in the previous session. we heard from the national development and reform commission as well as market regulators really meeting with iron ore companies to talk about spot and futures trading. the company should not hype up prices, speculate, or manipulate the market. they have vowed to step up and crackdown on illegal activity. so we are releasing that downside after the steelmaking ingredients urged by a third since early august. a lot of that being driven by the series of stimulus pledges and policies out of beijing. the market has been anticipating that big jump in construction activity next year. we are also, as that

conversation in hong kong, talking about this most forceful push yet to try to put an end to the nation's property crisis. we are seeing that pressure on banks to boost funding needed to try to create some stability for china's beleaguered property developers. you can get around up of all the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. bloomberg subscribers can get to it on their terminals. it's also on the mobile. you can customize those settings as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ an ever-changing landscape comes with challenges. from our vantage point, we see opportunities. as a top-ten real estate manager, we harness the power of a 360° perspective, delivering local insights and global expertise across public and private equity and debt.

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person. the cartel is wrangling over production levels as we've seen oil prices slump of late. let's bring in our energy and commodities editor with the latest. it seems to be quite dramatic. what really led to this online meeting now, can you tell us more about what's being disputed amongst opec-plus? >> hi. this is being driven by the african opec members and chafing at the prospect of being forced to accept lower production quotas for next year. it dates back to a dispute in june in which the saudi's wanted particularly nigeria and gola to acquiesce to lower targets for 2024. the background is that there's been a lot of underinvestment, aging oil fields, operational disruptions and africa. they struggled any -- recent years to meet production targets.

the saudi's asked them to accept an external order to check what levels of production they could meet. apparently that audit is now in. they are not accepting it. the nigerians actually recently beat their quota. they say they can pump a more. that's the background to this dispute. the fact that it's being held online is not really significant. that's due to a clash with the cop 28 climate summit which is starting in the uae the same day. but yes. essentially the african countries do not want to be locked into these quotas, saying they are going to part less next year. haidi: beyond this one singular event, everything else looks pretty bearish from global demand, chinese demand, to the fact that we are seeing rising u.s. inventories.

andrew: yeah. for the last few days when we had this dispute, the expectation was that the saudi's would roll over their cuts. there was also talk of deeper cuts, just because oil is down so much since late september. i think people are still expecting the saudi's role -- will rollover their unilateral cuts. they want to get oil back up towards $100 per barrel if they can. because of their own sort of budgetary requirements. deeper and groupwide cuts now look a bit harder to achieve. that's not to say they won't be able to. there's obviously a lot of disagreement within opec over this. yeah. the environment does look more bearish. we are in a deficit at the moment. we are moving back into surplus

early next year. a lot of the weakness has been caused by increased supply from nonna -- opec suppliers, particularly the u.s. but also brazil, guiana. we've had a rainy and exports still going strong. haven't really been expected but -- affected by any fallout from the war. russians are still pumping a lot. the cap on russian oil exports has proved to be pretty ineffective. we've seen week demand signals, particularly out of china. in the u.s., we will have big stockpile builds. it's looking quite bearish. this dispute just means that the chances of a deeper opec-plus cut look to be not as likely now. yvonne: what's bullish is iron ore, given this rally. we are at nine month highs. weaver cheated a little bit with beijing now talking about

cracking down illegal activities and trying to cool the rally. does it work really? andrew: it doesn't usually. what we typically see is short pullbacks on the price, people say it's a good opportunity to buy the dips. but yeah. it hasn't worked. china is in a catch-22 situation. on the one hand, they really want to stimulate the economy. try to choose growth. on the other hand, they are worried about inflationary effects of these big rises in iron ore. but also other industrial metals as well. it's a bit of a catch-22 for them. there are some signs that the rally may and without the intervention by authorities. there are signs that the rally might have been a bit overdone. if you look at a metric which is, chinese iron ore prices, iron ore looks very expensive and that could be a sign that

the rally is nearing its end anyway. haidi: one of the other stories we are following, germany to suspend the constitutional limit on new borrowing for a fourth consecutive year. the finance ministry says the emergency move will be part of a revised budget presented next week. the government was forced into an overhaul after germany's top reallocation of unused debt to climate projects as unconstitutional. this is really what we are watching when we take a look at european stocks opening up. futures trading flat at this point. they held at that two month high as we saw those gains in energy. european when people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. they need a real solution. i've always fought with 5-10 pounds all the time. eating all these different things and nothing's ever working. i've done the diets, all the diets.

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numbers from the bank of japan. the composite reading for november coming in at just 50. that is softening a little bit from 50.5. just on the cusp of barely seeing expansionary territory at the moment. when it comes to manufacturing, weakness there softening further to 48.1 from 48.7. even deeper into contraction. when it comes to that services split out, more strength. 51 point seven from 51.6 in that previous rating. it comes on the back of those national inflation cpi numbers that were out earlier as well. seeing a little bit more softness but still an acceleration in that year on your number. we are getting little reaction when it comes to the cpi note. the question is going to back whether this changes the picture

for the bank of japan expectations. yvonne: that's the big question, what will be enough to really indicate to the bank of japan that they need to start to normalize their policy settings. inflation has big -- been the big events over the course of the morning. core cpi picked up in the prior readings. coming in at 2.9%. earlier, 2.8% in september. lower than what economist had been expecting. you are seeing it above the 2% target for the 19th straight month in a row. as you say, it's that question of inflation, when we will start to see enough that the boj will start to normalize sometime over the course of 2024. that's japanese inflation. we are half an hour into trading now for equities in japan. you are seeing that it got moved mostly to the upside. new zealand fairly flat. actually if you broke it down and took a lidded every single

sub index on the msci asia-pacific, you would see that every single one of those is in the green at this point in time. but it's really the question or the trading volumes in the session. let's take a look at the a vat function. tells us where we are at in terms of trading volumes in the session. we can see we are roughly 30% lower than we typically would be at this point in the session. just pointing out the details of this chart. projection over a 20 day moving average. you have what we've seen over the past 20 days as well. we are quite lower at this point. of course, it's the thanksgiving holiday in the u.s. and that is driving investors to be out of the market today. haidi: let's get you up to speed with the other stories we are following this hour. a truce in the usual hamas war will begin on friday at 7:00 local time. it's a day later than expected as negotiations over hostages and prisoners tracked on.

hamas will 350 hostages and israel will release 150 jailed palestinians. all 200 will be women and children. the deal marks the first major lola in the conflict since hamas attacked israel in early october. north korea says it's ending a five-year-old agreement with the south that was aimed at reducing military tensions. upon young says it will deploy more forces and hollow -- military hardware to the border. self -- south korea says it will respond. heightened tensions come after north korea appeared to have successfully launched a spy satellite into orbit. china has told the world health organization that their unusual or novel pathogens have been detected after a surge in respiratory illnesses in children. local media reported a steady rise in infections from a germ known to cause colds and adults and pneumonia in local children. authorities say it's not unexpected giving the onset of winter and the lifting of strict

covid pandemic restrictions. yvonne: yes. ok. let's talk about taiwan politics. we talked about the drama that unfolded yesterday as talks with the opposition parties, to try to you -- to reunite really failed. we talked about how the drama unfolded. the former president had to wait outside for 20 minutes during some of the meeting as well. we are getting the latest now from separate statements from the parties. so we are just a few hours away from this registration deadline. the tpp party set to sign up for the race separately. separately. so i'm not sure if that brings to an end any sort of hopes of an alliance at this point. haidi: the question is, where do we go from here? how much more difficult does

this make a reset with beijing or restart to talks with beijing? china has been unwilling to talk to the tpp because it refuses to acknowledge its claim over the island. we've seen this very quick moving story. it was earlier last week when they had agreed to this alliance. now these talks have collapsed. frankly, we are not sure what happens next. yvonne: let's ask that to our next guest lev nachman. ,it's been a crazy week. just tell us overall, what is your take on what's happened? lev: yeah. no one expected the public debacle that we saw yesterday. it will go down in history as one of the strangest moments in taiwanese politics. this is a story of three presidential candidates who will timidly failed to overcome this

at -- collective action problem. all three of them do not want the dvb mpower but every single one of them individually thinks that they ought to be the one to be president next. when that drive that they should be the one in power is a greater priority than defeating the dv p, that is what happens yesterday. now we are actually going to be entering a race with four different presidential candidates, three on the pan-blue leading side and one on the pan green leaving side. you don't have to be a mathematician or political scientist to understand that three people running on one side and one person on the other makes it easier for the dv p and green leaving party this election. it's not a sure thing and i still think it's going to be a competitive election. but a week ago when they announce this cooperation, we thought this was really going to be trouble for the dv p if they really wanted to win the election. now that the cooperation failed spectacularly in the public eye,

i think william lies is more relaxed this week than he was last week. yvonne: you say that anything can still change at that point. what could change? is this alliance dead now? what else should we looking -- should we be looking out for? lev: for the next couple weeks, public opinion polling will reveal a couple things. first, we see whether the public debacle has had a big impact on these pan-blue party base of supports. obviously as international observers, we see this and think , how could their base of support still have faith in them after that point? a lot of their supports will still in fact be ride or die with their parties and will still vote for them. we need to see public opinion to see whether this falling apart of relations has an impact on their anticipated vote share. we need to keep our eyes peeled on their vice presidential candidate announcements that are going to happen in a couple hours here.

in taiwan, this election in particular, they will do a lot of heavy lifting for their pr especially because some of these politicians need some positive pr after this last week. haidi: i think he raised an interesting point. we are riveted by the political high drama and spectacle. what are voters watching for? what do you see as being the priority? that relationship with china is going to be a priority, and the security issues. have those issues involved as we get closer? lev: every time when election becomes a matter of how we feel about china and who we trust to be the captain of the ship of taiwan and who will steer us in a way that is safe and in line with what toilet -- taiwanese voters want. this is turning out to be no different. this is becoming a question of, which of these candidates do we think is the one to be the most sane, rational one who can not

just get taiwan's domestic affairs in order and navigate this very tense relationship that taiwan has been stuck in for decades? yvonne: what do you think china wants for an opposition candidate? lev: china emphatically doesn't want the dv p. from the p.r.c. perspective, they will happily take any three of the opposition candidates. from their perspective, they made it clear that it doesn't matter. it's just if you are from the dv p, that's a nonstarter. we won't have any meaningful dialogue. all three pan-blue candidates are not necessarily party members. but the fact that they are at the very least not in the dv p and they are willing to lean into some of the p.r.c. rhetoric for the sake of this tabby is like -- establishing relations, i think they would take any three of them. all the more reason why seeing this public debacle yesterday

doesn't necessarily give a lot of faith in their ability to come together. yvonne: the vice president, you mentioned that and we are watching closely the opposition parties. we heard from the vice president . she's quite well known in international circles, more of a prominent figure. what do you make of that pic? lev: it was incredibly smart. she is someone who is not just well-known in d.c. but known around the world for being taiwan's defective diplomat. she has done the most to try to raise taiwan's profile in terms of its hard and soft power. she's done an amazing job in d.c. of navigating america's current very bipartisan -- very partisan landscape. she's managed to establish good relations with democrats and republicans and has been able to remind american politicians that taiwan should be a bipartisan

issue. that message has really hit home as well. she is someone who has been known in taiwan domestic politics for quite some time. her international role in the united states has garnered her a very big base of support especially from pan green voters. her biggest struggle has been that washington, d.c. doesn't adore him in the way that they adored her. largely because of some trust issues about comments he has made in the past about pro-independence leadings -- leanings. i think that reassures a lot of people in d.c. that he is paying attention to how the behavior has been the last eight years and that's the path that he would follow. haidi: if we go back to the leaders meeting between biden and xi where the key take away was that beijing tried to assure the u.s. that they are not trying to seek military conflict with taiwan. do you think that meaningfully

decreases the geopolitical tail risks going into this election? lev: i think so. ultimately, having lines of communication between those leaders is so fundamental to taiwan's safety. i believe that a good u.s. china relationship is good for taiwan. it decreases the likelihood of ms. calculation and miss communication. in an age where we have crossing the median line, causing a lot of tension in the taiwan strait, it's never been more important that these two presidents are willing to communicate with each other. of course, i know they haven't started the u.s. china best friends club. i know there's a long way to go. at the least, they've been able to start a dialogue in a way that i think is really beneficial for taiwan especially around this tense election time. yvonne: i'm sure we will be catching up soon. we have plenty more ahead onto

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yvonne: taking a look at markets opening here for the last 45 minutes. japan and south korea unchanged. tokyo seeing decent gains here. 200 50 points on the neck a we are seeing more momentum in

these markets as we wrap up the week. global stocks poised to end on four weeks of gains here right now. haidi: yeah. of course, we were talking about japan's key inflation measure throughout the course of the morning. it has risen for the first time in four months. goes against the view that it will be decelerating. bloomberg's japan economy and government editor joins us now from tokyo. will the boj have to change their price outlook again? is this a little bit of a blip in the data? >> so i think it's a little bit more of a blip in the data than anything else. we saw an acceleration but it's only 2.9% from 2.8%. it doesn't change the broader picture too much. if you look at the data more closely, you can see that it accelerated on the back of less impact from the governments

utility subsidies first. second, the acceleration in intel fees which is something we expected just because the tourist numbers in japan have been, they have returned to pre-pandemic levels. spending per visitor has also been rising on the back of the weaker yen. so what we are seeing here, probably it doesn't change the boj's normalization policy have to much with this month's data. yvonne: what does that mean for 2024? is this a story that has been pushed to next year? what are those possibilities now of when the boj is going to pivot? >> i think broadly speaking, it does leave the boj a bit more data dependent going into the december meeting. and the market does expect some kind of a shift next year into

2024. what's key again is what happens to wages. the boj's continued messaging has been that we are seeing high inflation, above 2%. we need to see wages catch up with price gains in japan in order for the boj to make a move. so far, real wages ask -- continue to fall month after month. what's key would be what kind of gains we see in the spring. negotiations coming up. any signs before those negotiations really start up, whether we can see any signs that there's a further acceleration compared to this year as well. yvonne: thank you so much. let's look at what we are looking at ahead of this chinese open. property developers are back in

focus when markets open in less than an hour. authorities weighing a plan to allow banks to offer unsecured short-term loans to qualified developers. let's bring in our managing editor for asian stocks. obviously we've seen property stocks go on a tear all week. what are analysts saying about these support measures? will it work? >> there are a lot of views out there. most of them skeptical. jp morgan just issued a note to say that implementation will be really challenging for banks because they may want to really circumvent the regulation by not following these rules. as our report says, it's unprecedented. bank's have been issuing loans to developers on a project financing paint -- basis. all those loans are secured by the underlying project. i don't think a lot of credit assessors within the banks will feel comfortable.

even if they were to do so, there's going to be increased risks in terms of national service risks. there are other views saying that the measure comes just a bit too late. if it were to come a year earlier, it would have had a bigger impact. there has been a very deeply entrenched view among homebuyers that their projects may not be delivered if they were to put down a down payment. so that has really been preventing them from going out and buying homes right now. haidi: what's the market reaction been, given the strength of that so far? is it going to be sustainable? >> yeah. the reaction has been strong initially. we've seen over and over again that markets initial strong reaction, which is usually helped by short covering, tend to fade away in the next few days because investors tend to stop to worry whether those

measures will really work. that's what exactly has been playing out this time around. the bloomberg intelligent meant -- intelligence gauge of property rose 9% yesterday. country barton was up about 27%. country garden is among the hong kong list of stocks that have the highest short interest ratios. that shows that a lot of investors are doing a short covering for fear that more property support measures will come out. that's not fundamental. investors are not really putting money into the sector. i think with more cautious voices coming out from brokerages, we probably won't see the strong rally we saw yesterday to last. haidi: be sure to tune in to bloomberg radio to hear more from the days big newsmakers and get analysis from our team there , live from our studio in hong kong. you can listen in via the app.

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haidi: you are watching daybreak: asia. the latest corporate stories that we are tracking. barclays planning to reduce cost by $1.3 billion over several years which could involve slashing as many as 2000 jobs.

a source saying that any cuts would be primarily at barclays execution services. this is a unit that encompasses the groups back office. it will result in roughly 2% of the banks workforce being asked. origin energies has rejected a takeover plan by a group led by brookville management pension fund. calling it a lowball estimate. shareholders reject the takeover next month, the brookfield group will try to acquire the business at a lower price. nissan reportedly set to produce two times -- two types of electric vehicles at its u.k. plant. sources saying the decision was in part due to government support. the move could help build mama meant him in the u.k. car industry transition to making ev's and boost the country after years of brexit talks put off.

yvonne: we are watching closely when it comes to how this all plays out. we are still flat across u.s. futures as well. without holiday, we will see how everything treats next week. certainly you are starting to see taiwan catching a bit today. there's not a lot of conviction. asia-pacific up one third of 1%. you are not seeing a big volatility from the u.s.. volumes are low here this morning. we are still talking dollar china. still holding onto that strength that we've seen which has basically strengthened for 2% the past two weeks or so which is remarkable. still to come, we will talk more about markets and hear why jp morgan asset management is overweight when talking about malaysia, indonesia government bonds. we will speak to hsbc on why they are bullish on china next year. i believe there report is, this time is different.

certainly there will be a lot of questions here on what that means when it comes to the prospect for chinese stocks. that's it from asante ja -- daybreak: asia. certainly going to watch whether the property rally can keep going as our colleague mentioned about this. it's encouraging that we are seeing these unsecured loans being offered. whether these lenders, the banks actually follow through and delivering on that fundraising and lending is another question. whether the rally has gone too far is certainly the big focus here as we wrap up this friday. beautiful morning out of hong kong. this is bloomberg. ♪

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