>> you are watching "daybreak:

asia" coming to you live from new york, sydney, and hong kong. haidi: we are counting down to asia's major market opens. vonnie: australia has just come online. oil prices coming under pressure after opec plus agrees on output cuts of about 900,000 barrels a day. traders remain skeptical about implementation. and u.s. secretary of state antony blinken presses israel to obey international law as an extended temporary truce is set to expire on friday. >> we are finishing the week, but it is the start of another month as well. you also have to put where we have been in november, and it has been the best month for global stocks looking at the

country. it has been an expectation coming through over the last few weeks that the fed is done with its rate hiking cycle. we got the economic data that is starting to really firm up the idea that we could see a soft landing. we have seen that softer dollar dynamic as well really playing out. we do typically see sort of a santa claus rally, but the question how much further we can gain from here. so far, pretty steady. no big movers. stocks online again. the key sector that we will be keeping an eye on will be the energy one as well, given that opec-plus issue, those supply cuts that still managed to disappoint the market. energy index, it does take a little time.

let's take a look around what we are seeing for the rest of the region this morning. again, the outlook for stocks today is fairly mixed. kiwi stocks flat at this point. again, what we see for nikkei futures, not too much movement at this point in time. something else we are watching today will be the reaction when we get to pmi data. you have the private numbers coming up for china in a couple of hours. you also have private meetings coming out for the likes of japan, korea, taiwan, so giving us an update on the health of the manufacturing sector in asia. >> exactly. we already got a little glimpse into the pmi's from china, yesterday's data, and they were not looking so hot. we really saw a little bit of exhaustion coming into the markets. we also got economic data coming out of the united states, so the s&p did rally about .4%, but it had been wavering between

markets. you did have some stocks moving higher like salesforce, which gave a great outlook, the profit forecast for the fourth quarter topping estimates. boeing was up more than 3%. health care companies were doing very well on potential combinations and generally health care being in the news quite a bit. as you can see, the nasdaq also pointed lower after a day where was how the nasdaq down about .25%. mega text did not fare so well today. tesla down more than 1% before the start of a and it also had -- before the cybertruck event, and it also had a negative response in trading after that event. new york's john wooden's says he expects fed policy to remain restrictive "for quite some

time." all that off the back of recent u.s. data which showed consumer spending, inflation, and the fed's preferred gauge of inflation cooling the labor market as well. let's bring in alex harris, bloomberg's bond and ethics reporter. the fed speak today seems to go along with economic data. do you think mary daly and john williams were compelled to speak out given how markets have been pricing in the outlook? mary: it is interesting because i do think to an extent they were worried a little bit. we asked john williams about this and if they are looking at what the market is pricing in, and he said to is it's not something he loses sleep over. the markets are looking at things a little bit differently may be than the fed is, so he did not sound too worried, but i

guess what is interesting is that you are looking at what the market is pricing and then looking at the run rate from the fed, and there seems to be a discrepancy, but there is something that the fed knows that the market is not aware of, and it will be really interesting. i guess my concern in watching this trade and these rate cuts is that chance that you get, a market that is to one-sided -- too one-sided and the trading debt is just not there, so we kind of unleash this chaos where if there is a trigger that causes all of these two unwind, it will unwind very quickly because you just don't have the depth and support you might have had in other points of the year because the trading is a little bit thinner and people are closing out their books. haidi: and there's such high expectations in terms of what we are expecting to hear from jay

powell, to opine on his view on market policy, this dislocation we see in markets between what fed members are clearly saying and what the market continues doing. to be fair, it is not just the fed. we are seeing this with the rbnz and rba as well. mary: i have a feeling that jerome powell is going to continue to walk the line where he is trying to reassure investors and say, we are on hold. we are not just going by one data point. we are data point by data point dependent, as they say. you have to look at the data and financial conditions holistically. the other condition is that if you have conditions, they lean on the fact that treasury yields have risen quite rapidly as the rationale for staying on hold. now they can also come off quite a bit and that condition has eased. does that put rate cuts back on

the table? i think that is also something that needs to be verified, if you are going to use the treasury market as a reason to stay on hold, if the treasury market is no longer your problem or bugaboo for the time being, it has to work the opposite way then, right? i hope there is some clarity around that as well. haidi: the head of investment management at horizon investments joins us now. really good to get your views in terms of what the market is thinking, how close it could get to what the fed is really thinking, and are we, as alex just indicated, potentially in store for a quick and messy landing? scott: thanks for having me. i agree somewhat with what alex was just saying in terms of the symmetry, the fed using high

rates as a reason not to hide, but at the same time, you look at inflation and the speech a day or two ago, saying as inflation comes down, every rule we look at, all for your guidance tells us we need to be lowering the target rate, and we have seen continued evidence that inflation is in fact falling pretty quickly. it is kind of collapsing right now. i do think that is why we will continue to be on hold in december, and the market is seeing right through that. haidi: yeah, as you say, two sides to the coin. how much buffer do you think the fed will want? perhaps even earlier in november, you had suggested that 2024 is still a possibility.

scott: i think it is pretty clear at this point. the question now is will it be march or will we wait closer to summer? the problem with much is you come into presidential election objects, and are we trying to help candidate x versus candidate why is something they are pretty uncomfortable with, but at the end of the day, there mandate is to contain inflation -- their mandate is to contain inflation. if they do nothing, that is in effect a rate hike as inflation collapses. just watching the inflation data as it comes down, knowing that that will lead the fed to have to cut in a neutral way. haidi: we really need that drop in rate volatility expectations.

if we get that, is that full steam ahead, everything is clear ? scott: we think it is. the interest rate option market or interest rate volatility market has been pretty harry over the last couple of years. as those rate volatility expectations come down -- and they have started to come down -- that is just telling you the market understands the growth trajectory. the market understands that inflation is whipped, and this things together would provide a nice kick ledge to this rally. haidi: there are a lot of

external risks. is that why you still favor international opportunities? scott: the u.s. is clearly the epicenter of the ai trade. that is something we think is pretty important. but outside the u.s., japan is pretty interesting to us. they have that risk-taking culture change going on that is really nascent. you have yield curve control finally getting relaxed, that should make banks a little more profitable, more willing to lend money, and then you have a nominal gdp growth environment with japan. that is 4%, 5% nominal -- 4%, 5% growth, and we have not seen for percent or 5% nominal gdp in that country in decades. china is not showing any signs of large-scale fiscal stimulus, which is the only path out of a balance sheet recession. china affects much of the rest

of the emerging markets. if we get some resolution, that could be an interesting place, but it is probably not the best place to be for 2024. haidi: great to have you with us. coming up, our interview with the ceo of the mixed reality headset developer. first, those opec-plus decisions coming out of the meeting underwhelming. we get details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: oil futures plunged

after opec-plus agreed to production cuts. su keenan joins us now. seems strange that would happen. it appears investors are disappointed both at the size of the cuts and also the vagueness around how enforcement might work. su: yeah, it was less of a cut than expected, and there was a lot of drama surrounding it. it could mean african nations and the more powerful members such as saudi arabia, and now the oil market saying that does not cut it. an extra one million barrels when you break it down is really 900,000 barrels a day, but these cuts are largely voluntary. a majority indicating it is not happy with its quota. we will get you more on that, being added to the alliance for

next year, and members will be announcing what their voluntary cuts are. their -- brent crude you see already down in a big way. the concern is that the market as one market veteran said was hoping for a unified voice. what we apparently got was a series of individual saudi-like bond cuts. you are seeing west texas intermediate down to about $75 and change. in asia trading, it was down about 2.5%. in u.s. trading, again, a big disappointment. the big news is that brazil will be joining the opec group. it is said to boost its output to 3.8 million barrels a day next year, but they will not be subject to production cuts going

forward because they are not a formal member in the sense that others are, so this will be an interesting development. vonnie: what are we getting from analysts? su: analysts are saying this is both using -- confusing and defining, and they are not liking either. we see some bearish technicals that could signal another move lower from here. again, there was an anticipation oil would be boosted higher by the move from opec. plus, to boost oil, that is not what we are getting right now. the apa said it expects oil to flit back into surplus. a lot of bearish headwinds and oil prices are a big question

mark going forward. haidi: thanks. world leaders gathering at cop 28 climate conference. topping the agenda, the paris agreement which aimed to cut emissions. >> hundreds of heads of state and thousands of delegates are making their way to dubai for the annual united nations climate summit. the expectation is that we hear about a number of projects, pledges, and initiatives over the course of two weeks, but, really, the focus will be on if how to tackle climate change is actually decided on. we will wait to see if investment into renewables and fulfillment of finance pledges from the past will go far enough to rebuild trust between

developed and developing economies. an investment of $24 trillion is needed annually to address climate change according to the world bank. throughout the course of the summit, we will be hearing from a number of members of the global south in addition to the global north, including the u.k. prime minister and the french president. bloomberg tv will be on the ground speaking with leaders as talks continue throughout the summit. haidi: in conjunction with all of this, we got the release of the meteorological division, there provisional state of the climate for the year, basically, in 2023. it is fascinating. it has been the hottest year on record already, and we still have a full month to go. temperature is around 1.4 degrees celsius. that's 2.5 degrees fahrenheit. the tidbit that stuck out to me is that the area etsy covered in

ice in antarctica has reached its lowest extent on record, so the ice is really just disappearing in antarctica. haidi: we already saw this in terms of hottest month, hardest start to summer, hottest start to spring we saw in early summer. just an incredible year. his it's wonderful when you are sitting there but also very boring given that there was nowhere near the highs of summer, so we are seeing these really hard statistics when it comes to what is going on to the oceans. we heard from antonio guterres, the united nations secretary general, saying record global heating should send shivers down the spines as we continue to watch this. we also saw land as being

affected by record heat. we saw the ice sheet that represents the accumulation of snow and melt water runoff. a lot of extreme numbers we are seeing. drought having really far-reaching impacts this year, particularly across northwestern africa, the iberian peninsula and central and southwest asia and south america as well. much more to come here on daybreak: asia. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: u.s. secretary of state antony blinken has met with israeli leaders as a temporary cease-fire in gaza extends

another day. lincoln stressed the need to avoid civilian harm -- blinken stressed the need to avoid civilian harm. >>'s it's important israel act in accordance with international humanitarian war even against a group that does not respect it. haidi: what were the main priorities that emerged from blinken's talk with israel? the fallout has been immense and we know there's a lot of talk in congress about potentially linking future aid to minimizing of losses. anna: that's exactly right. i'm glad you played that clip of blinken speaking earlier today because he also said it was imperative to avoid what he called a massive loss of civilian life.

the israeli campaign moves from the northern part of the gaza strip to the south. we saw blinken stressing that israeli forces need to take every measure possible to avoid excessive loss of civilian life in the south, especially because that is what israeli authorities -- where israeli authorities told the people of gaza to go to find relative safety. vonnie: we are now in the seventh day of a cease-fire. one of the chances of that being extended? anna: we heard from john kirby earlier today, saying that they were working to extend the cease-fire to an eighth day, ninth, 10th. we see, to ask certain extent, that this is working and that some hostages have been released. we also see violence still happening. we have a case of a gunman in east jerusalem killing three israelis, wounding others, including two americans. we will see the balance of these

skirmishes flaring up. we do know that is another key priority for u.s. officials working through the next phase of this. haidi: even with this temporary truce, there is still violence going on in the west bank. two young boys being killed on the west bank as well. in terms of the hostage exchange , what are the prospects of the release of the -- the remaining hostages? that will determine leverage for the remainder of this truth. anna: absolutely. we believe there are about 145 hostages still being held in gaza. we don't know how many of those are soldiers. as we see videos and the testimony of the people who have been released, i think that provides hope that others who are still being held can be released and we will see those people again. it just reminds us of the human

consequences of this conflict and what is at stake for both sides. vonnie: thank you for joining us. our national security reporter anna edgerton. this is bloomberg. ♪ the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data

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♪ vonnie: the japan jobless rate is out. better than forecast. we were looking for to be 2.6%

in october. that is higher by a tiny amount. it looks like the labor market in japan is still tight and continues to be tight. we know households might be restraining a little bit of spending in japan. they are contending with slowdowns with major trade partners such as the u.s. and china. the yen moving very slightly after that data. it is strengthening. japan futures were already higher. haidi: it is looking like a pretty mixed picture across the friday trading session pretty early on. a lot of the downside there.

we are watching some of these producers. elsewhere we are seeing weakness. sluggish trade today. a lack of direction. looking a bit more negative. vonnie: sources say the u.s. has forced a vc firm to sell shares in a chip start up. this could have broader implications. this points to concerns around national security. annabelle: they made the decision.

we know the u.s. is growing more cautious of the activity of middle eastern wealth funds. the concern from the u.s. side is we are seeing ties between the middle east and china. we know the u.s. wants to be able to slow down or restrict the advancements of china in this field. what are we hearing from sources? they have reviewed the deal. last year they had a funding round to raise about $25 million. it was not in america's interest. there were concerns about growing ties between the middle east and china. they forced them to sell the shares. they design ai chips inspired by

the way the brain works. haidi: what is the latest with sam altman and openai? annabelle: openai employees have a very big decision in front of them. they have to decide if this is the point they want to cash in on all of the optimism we've seen around the country? we know there was an offer. there was all this concern around sam altman being ousted. concerned that the offer might not go ahead. what we are hearing is the offer is proceeding. what has changed is there will be an extension.

employees will have an extra month to see if they want to take part. that valuation is still intact. a lot of money on the line. a lot of thought coming into this from the investors. we understand there was enough demand or other investors. haidi: the latest on openai. despite u.s. efforts to limit chinese access to advanced chip technologies, beijing is relying on huawei to build a ecosystem. we know there were shivers down the spine of some u.s. policymakers when we saw the progress that was being made. is the company playing a major role here?

>> that is exactly right. we have huawei introducing a smartphone that included a semi conductor that was made in china. the chipmaker based in shanghai. their role goes far beyond what has been reported before. they are lending engineering expertise and financial support to a network of companies that are working on strategic parts of the semi conductor supply chain. huawei is helping try to fill the gap domestically with domestic capabilities and some of these key areas.

software tools for designing chips. they are working with a number of different companies that have government financial support to try to eliminate those blockades. using them to handicap that development. vonnie: wasn't the u.s. blacklisting supposed to handicap the company? >> that is exactly right. huawei has been under a number of different sanctions. the u.s. pressed very hard for western companies not to use their telecom equipment. the commerce department has a lot of sway over what to buy abroad. that really hurt their smartphone business. they had been a very viable competitor. competing with apple and samsung right at the top.

that really handicap the smartphone business. now we are seeing this new phone that just came out. they have been able to climb back into that business. it seems like next year will be very competitive. that will probably hit abelard which has depended on china as a big market. the u.s. does not care if there are advance barcodes in china. that is really the key issue here. haidi: scale is always a key issue, both in terms of the scale and what they need to produce. the scale of how much government subsidies and input is done. how much is that is playing into

this? >> you are asking a very important question about whether domestic companies in china can produce semi conductors at that scale. the secretary was asked this very question in commerce department hearings. the scale is really economically independent. you can produce these types of chips and some of the volumes you would need. if the government is providing funding to allow huawei and partners to produce terms that are not economically viable, they would have access to semi conductors for things like smart phones and ai development and perhaps beyond that. when she was asked the question, she said we do not have evidence

that they can produce at that scale. vonnie: thank you so much. tesla has finally handed cyber trucks over to customers. this after delays and production snags. they were handed over by elon musk during a live-streamed launch event. we have to start with that cost. it is a far cry from what we have been anticipating. will people pay that much for this amount of cyber truck? >> it is 50% more than what he promised way back in 2019. the truck arrives a couple of years late.

even the price is off in the future. that truck will not be produced until 2025. the price next year is $80,000. haidi: given the price, i wonder how it stacks up against the competition. >> what we see is you already have the ford f1 50 lightning out there. it starts at $50,000. that will be below the cyber truck. you have another truck at about $70,000. that will be right in the same range. it is not like the cyber truck will come in with some kind of nice advantage. it will be right in the heart of the market. that is a pretty premium market. vonnie: what about quality? it has that delorean look.

something wonderful about the look of it in some ways but at the same time truck owners like pharaoh look of things. will it appeal to them? what possibly doesn't have that will appeal to them? >> the question is with this appeal to folks who use a pickup truck as a work truck? and put a sheet of plywood into the back. it is a completely different configuration then you would see. certain things he could in regular toolboxes that will not fit in this truck. what elon musk pointed out is it will two 11,000 pounds. it is incredibly fast. 0-60 in two seconds. it is very powerful. i think he thinks the unusual design, the stainless steel body

panels, will attract a lot of buyers. haidi: there was an opinion article that says he wants you to have a cyber truck even if you don't. we were watching the performance. before the event. part of it was addressed to advertisers. another section of his comments was on the role of unions. is that is something that is posing a risk for the work worth ? >> the uaw has made it clear that they will go after tesla and their organizing drive. yesterday they announced ace amped up organizing drive. tesla would be the big target. the president believes he can do it. they just won this contract with the detroit automakers that increases compensation by 33%.

they think that will be a very strong calling card. elon is very opposed to unions. he made that clear yesterday. he said it would be a failure. haidi: some of the other stories we are following in the auto space. they have entered a joint venture to bolster the south asian nations electrical vehicle ecosystem. they will hold a 35% stake in the partnership. they will increase charging infrastructure and expand capacity. ford has lowered its profit guidance due to rising labor costs. they told us that ev prices are coming out faster than expected. >> we have seen prices come down much quicker than we expected. the reason for that is we are

moving out of the early adapters who are starting to pay more prices. we are seeing those come down. we expect to equalize with gas prices. it will be about efficiency. haidi: we will speak to a text startup launching the latest mixed reality headset that is not aimed at consumers. that interview is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ use it to set and track your goals, big and small... and see how changes you make today... could help put them within reach. from your first big move to retiring poolside - and the other goals along the way. wealth plan can help get you there. ♪ j.p. morgan wealth management.

a few years ago, i came to saona, they told me there's no electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir de esta viviendo una vida como la que estamos viviendo ahora. es electricidad aquí es salud.

♪ vonnie: microsoft is talking to partners to help launch a mobile gaming store. they say the move will enable microsoft to take on apple and google in the business. the executive declined to give us a specific date for a launch. earlier reports that it could be next year. our next guest runs a tech startup. it develops virtual and mixed reality headsets. their latest product is intended for the military and pilot training. he is the ceo and he joins us now. thank you so much for joining. one of the complaints about vr headset is that they use cases are not so clear. i am curious to what calls you

to start a startup that makes these headsets and what you want to solve? >> thank you for having me. we are very excited to have brought out the most advanced mixed reality headset the world has ever seen. it is transforming the way many companies perform mission-critical workflows like training pilots or designing cars. when it comes to enterprise grade mixed reality products, there has been a vacuum in the market. there is a clear benefit for the consumer products. that has been our thesis. it has brought us to this point where we now have finally been able to bridge the gap. haidi: you have major customers

in the defense sector. you build a secure version of your headset in finland. i am curious as to how you go about choosing clients. geopolitically it must be a little bit of a headache. once you have chosen them, the site cut others out of the supply chain? >> we have been very focused on developing western markets, mainly. our largest market has been north america. we also have clientele in developed western europe. and places like japan and korea. that is our focus at the moment. vonnie: what happens with china? do you not have access to their supply chain process or assembly process? if not, those that create

problems? >> we have decided to focus on the markets i mentioned before. what we can do now is to continue propagating those markets. and help leading enterprises and organizations to save money. eventually at the end, deliver better business results. to the shareholders. that is what we are focused on. vonnie: you are based in finland but you also have a headquarters in washington. i am curious what you're hearing about the u.s.-china divide when it comes to trade and whether that will increase. what is the outlook? >> this is an exciting time for

the industry as a whole. we have new companies entering this field. there is excitement. we are very happy about that. we have seen the market continue to grow. vonnie: do you see it becoming affordable for the regular retail investor? do you see it becoming widespread? >> that is clearly happening already today. we are focusing on enterprise customers, primarily.

i have delighted to see what apple is validating many of the things we have done. at the same time, we focused on very different things. in the consumer space as well. transforming the ways they perform their businesses. vonnie: obviously you are in big-budget industries like aviation and automotive. give us some insight on whether you have been approached to help a particular side. what you might be thinking when it comes to those kind of authority questions that are bound to come up if they have not already. >> the market is where we are today. we are very cognizant of those opportunities.

helping them transform the way they go about their business. vonnie: thank you. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ be modernized then you'll need time, resources... and caffeine. if this sounds daunting then use watsonx code assistant ai designed to multiply developer productivity so you can generate code quickly. let's create a more modern foundation for business, with watsonx code assistant. ibm. let's create.

♪ vonnie: the latest corporate

stories we're tracking this hour. disney shares rising. they declared a dividend of 30% per share. the payment will be made on january 10. the payout was halted during the pandemic. the company is under pressure to improve their performance. the ceo of tiktok and other top executives met recently with 40 influential leaders who are pushing for more moderation of antisemitic content. they were wondering why pro-palestinian videos are popular. they should taste data analysis of tiktok content. they argued the app needed to uphold its commitment to provide -- prevent harm. vonnie: these are the stocks we will be watching shortly.

a highly anticipated opec-plus meeting disappointed. they have plans to buy the 7-eleven operator for $1.1 billion. the japanese retail giant also planning a share buyback. coming up in the next hour, why they believe the u.s. dollar weakness may be short-lived. plus, we get an outlook on the chinese economy as the property market continues to struggle. the market opens in seoul and tokyo next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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vonnie: this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia."

we are counting down to asia's major market opens. fed speak slightly different tone when it came to what san francisco fed president mary daly said and the new york president john perhaps trying to take a little bit of the air out of the bond market perhaps, and with the data coming in just lighter than expected, perhaps all power to central bankers. haidi: yeah, so much of it will potentially be more pushback on market expectations. it central-bank communication, the trajectory still key to what is driving these trading moves. annabelle: absolutely, but let's kick up this morning with the opens of japan, south korea, some echo data dropping in south korea at the start of the hour. what we have got our trade numbers coming up for november, and kicking off with exports, because you can see the strong beat on what economist had been expecting, so will rise up 7.8% on the year, the estimate had

been for 5% gains very much expected by our bloomberg economics team. what they are looking at in particular is the strong demand for orders and recovery in semi conductor shipments. we had the first 20 days of trade data for november that was telling us that average shipments per working day were rising, and chip shipments as well were strong, some a good signal for the health of the semiconductor sector. what else we have got our import numbers that have fallen, 11.6%. the estimate was for a contraction of eight point 6%, so we cannot in line with what economist had been expecting, but the trade balance or trade numbers as well, the surplus widening to three point a big in dollars, far greater than what economist had been expecting. there is a little bit of a disconnect between what had been predicted versus the actual numbers coming up this morning. that is a surplus we are seeing for a sixth straight month that

could be a big impact on the korean currency, seeing the siding .8 of 1% against the dollar, and broadly we have also pot stocks under pressure at the start of trade. that is at korea trade data numbers. exports, strong beat on what economist had been expecting, rising 720%, the estimated 45% gains and a good indicator because korea is seen as a bellwether for the global economy. pmi data, went twice this hour. eco data and japan to note this morning, we had the jobless weight rising to 2.5%, or add to .5%, assuming coming through. the estimate had been for 2.6%. at the participation rate just i of expectations, 63.1%, and the job to applicant ratio 1.3, pretty much in line with what economist at a been expecting a largely unchanged as well from

the prior reading, so a key indicator that we know the boj is watching closely, any signals that he can tell us again if it -- pivot away from this policy settings, japanese yen forever against the greenback back under the 148 mark. what else we're watching is the direction for treasuries. as you said, it was that commentary that came through in the prior session for mary daly, john williams, so residents at the fed is essentially just pushing back on that market expectation that the fed is done with hikes, and a cut could be imminent as well, because we are seeing traders start to pare their wages on the size of cuts we can expect next year. let's take a quick look at what is happening in australia, the rate sensitive i.t. sector was under pressure the most. drop of 1.6%. energy the other focus given we

saw opec+ issuing further supply cuts but still disappointing the market, and you are seeing crude , wti cylinder pressure as it comes online in the energy index. a little weaker, and the session today every single sub index on the asx 200 is in the red. vonnie: we also have comments from the fed chair friday. george morris is a managing director at k2 asset management and joins us now. i have to start there, the rally and all asset classes has been quite stunning particularly in the last month. if you were a wise investor, would you just sell now and wait for the new year? >> getting to your point, it is an incredible risk on rally since october for many reasons. the volatility of the range of the bond market reflecting that. going into year end most for

managers and us case in point will be rebalancing, so those neutral equities are bigger overweight. the technical, the dynamic as well as casual relays depending on your tandem analogy -- terminology will be sellers. just in balance to where you were in october going into november. just to understand for calendar 2024 you have to set up your asset allocation perfectly depending on where you think things will be edward -- and with a soft landing there will be trimming of the gains. the extraordinary rallies of the risk as a class across the board. vonnie: given that we really have no idea what is going to happen to the u.s. economy next year or rates given all of the activity that we have seen over the last just a month alone in

the bond market and also from the federal reserve and from the economic data, so given the very murky outlook how much would you want to allocate to the u.s., and how much would you want to steer clear of the united states next year? >> we are trying to predict future credit conditions and earning conditions, so cutting to the chase we think it is basically 500. the markets have priced that in. some people are bearish to and some people are bullish to that, but how do you get there? well we have a non-recession scenario for the u.s. in 2024 is that despite the volatility of bond market, think about the range, u.s. 10 year, 330 in april. extraordinary volatility second-guessing what is going to happen. with the fed funds rate at this absolute level, and by its nature implies the nonrecession

scenario is more probable going into 2024 than where we were a year ago because they can cut rates and stimulate. coming out of the pandemic, we were all a little bit confused. we have not been this through before, but the demand destruction is there by sectors and by geography and conditions, but the u.s. economy despite the volatility, u.s. election aside we believe that maintaining a neutral to u.s. equities is still the most probable outcome given predictability relative to other economies. haidi: what do you like when it comes to bonds, george? >> fixed income, senior unsecured or investment-grade segment probably because the reference rate and swap rate are so high. that rally that we had in

november has passed on to credit spreads, and the cello from july to october did not really broaden the credit spreads, because the resilience of the current conditions is predominantly that part of the capital structure on high-yield. we preferred to push into investment-grade corporate and extending that duration in november. that is generally the playing that we are looking through for 2024. haidi: how are you feeling about china at the moment? do you think we have hit the bottom? things will look up with more stimulus? do you see opportunities given evaluations? >> china got a much more compelling valuation. it has been hard for china to attract capital to invest for the long term. they are working through the biggest property construction default that we have seen ever in markets, and they are

delicately blending pboc stimulus with beijing policy targeted restructuring and trying to address attracting capital, and that is why they have met with every european and u.s.-canadian leader in a recent months and disbanded -- expanded to the economy. they want to maintain a growth rate around hi four, low five. confidence is quite low, so that is the laundry. consumer and corporate sentiment is quite low in china. they need to attract capital and they are trying to do that, but i think the worst is behind for china. we will play exporters through china, lng and commodities in general into china we would love to play in 2024. haidi: george, it was great to chat with you. let's get back to annabelle for

early movers. annabelle: there is actually a good one that is, like this morning, this is seven & i. there are a couple of different stories we're watching. at the company will be buying back $110 billion yen of shares, so this is seen as a well trodden path and japan up a way that companies try and unlock further value for investors. then there is also another story as well they came out yesterday that 7-eleven international is planning to buy 711 australia, so that company operates 711 convenience stores in australia, but what seven & i holdings is looking to bolster its profitability, growth prospects are broad, because the japan convenience store market is pretty saturated this point, so pretty strong start, up 7%.

let's take a look at another stock we are watching, we are keeping lg energy down 4.5% at this time, but it is in tax benefit talks with gm and the u.s. more details on that ahead. let's take a look at another sector in energy focus, watching oil related companies because we are seeing declining here as we get online after we saw a drop in oil prices, wti and brent crude overnight after we had opec+ putting through further supply cuts, but still not enough, and the market is disappointed by that level. vonnie: we will see the market reactions throughout the session. still ahead economists tell us why the chinese economy is more sustainable than investors realize. the opec was meeting underwhelmed with traders

remaining skeptical about the expectation of output cuts. we will get more details. this is bloomberg. ♪ get help with j.p morgan personal advisors. hey, david! ready to get started? work with advisors who create a plan with you, and help you find the right investments. so great getting to know you, let's take a look at your new investment plan. ok, great! this should have you moving in the right direction. thanks jen. get ongoing advice; and manage your investments in the chase mobile app. a few years ago, i came to saona, they told me there's no electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir de esta viviendo una vida como la que estamos viviendo ahora. es electricidad aquí es salud.

>> the way that israel defends itself matters. it is important israel asked in accordance with international law and the laws of war even when confronting a terrorist group that respects neither. haidi: u.s. secretary of state antony blinken during his third visit to israel since the start of the war. michael joins us now for the latest, and there is a lot of pressing in terms of august 2 beyond this truce, whether we get another temporary extension are not to try to recalibrate the way that this war has been conducted. >> there is no doubt about that. what we are seeing is the administration reflecting what we have been hearing reports up in democratic party as well.

it is reinforced greatly by the fact that if the wart resumes, which we presume it well, it is going to turn to the south, and not only is that built up, it is overwhelmed with people, so the idea of israel going in and firing indiscriminately or in a similar way that it has in the north, it is just not going to fly. there is so much pleasure out there now, and it is only the u.s. that is protecting israel in a sense, so it is under an obligation in a sense, given how much support it is provided and the moral backing it is provided for israel too. prime minister netanyahu and israeli officials say they are on the same page. how you go in and pinpoint terrorism, and they are going to be hiding amongst civilians. how they managed to do that is going to be really interesting to watch. the alternative is to send

troops and of a situation where they are under fire, and israel will not want to lose more men as well, so some very complicated positions. vonnie: i am curious as to the state of the troops and whether or not there are enough troops that are trained to do those surgical procedures, if you like, in southern gaza that the u.s. once -- wants and what the state of morales. >> israel's military in general is one of the best in the world. it is a very good reputation, but even the best in the world, no country ever managed to overcome this issue of one to go into an urban environment, it is very easy for insurgents in particular for them to pick off an innovating group. it is much easier because soldiers want to back up whereas

an individual sniper can operate from a rooftop, but it does have a lot of experience and terms of counterinsurgency as well, but nonetheless in the built-up area and one overwhelmed was civilians who fled from the north, it will be extremely difficult. being able to use airpower will be severely curtailed, so we will be interesting to see how they manage that, because it is almost impossible that there will not be more casualties, but the clear thinking we cannot have another 15,002, and exceptionally high casualty figure for civilians who have nothing to do with this. vonnie: michael, thank you very much. went to get a quick check on wti crude, down $.22, $75.74 a barrel after some gains were reversed on a disappointing

opec+ meeting. we will take a deeper dive into the market disappointments about the steeper opec production cuts that never came, and the ones that did were not what the market was anticipating. a su keenan is here to explain it all. su: there is a lot of confusion and surprise, two things the markets do not like with cuts that are smaller and imprecise. and there are questions on how they would be reinforced. let's take a look at what opec+ added to a drama how can tom devise takes meeting -- added to a drama high countdown. it is roughly 900,000 barrels a day of added oil cuts that take place in january, but the curbs are largely voluntary, so the member nations will tell us their cuts in the coming days. angola is already pushing back against its cuts.

taking a look at how oil is trading in asia trading, down 2.5% and fell a bit more. now it looks like it is starting to stabilize, but there has been concern again on how this is going to be enforced. the real big news coming up is that brazil will be joining the cartel in early next year. it is said to boost its output of 3.8 million barrels per day, and adding to the confusion brazil will not be subject to any of the curbs the cartel is imposed. haidi: bloomberg is reporting there is a disruptive band of bond traders adding to this rally. su: it is the general trading community pointing the finger of blame. ct traders as the cause for the volatility in the past two months, really until the end of september until now we have seen

oil on a wild ride. for brent crude at one point right after the beginning of the israeli-hamas work oil was up within striking distance of 100 and then whipsawed down into the 70's. it has been choppy trading. sometimes there is as much as a 6% swing and one day, and those are days where a lot of people can take losses. there are predictions we could see another big move ahead, and we are learning it is not just due to opec+ or supply demand. these trader bots are responsible for as much as 70% of crude trading on any given day, and they are trend followers and trend exaggerator's, said the could be -- so they could be exaggerating. vonnie: su keenan, thank you for that, and you could read that particular story on the terminal or on the bloomberg website.

the united nations is 2023 is the hottest year on record. according to its weather agency the world meteorological organization, double temperatures were almost 1.5 degrees above the free average from january until october. that puts 2023 on track to be the hottest year ever even with a month ago. u.n. secretary general antonio iteris has warned the world is living through a climate collapse in real time. that warning comes as world leaders gather for the climate conference cop28 in dubai. topping the agenda assessing the progress on the paris agreement which aims to cap the rising global mean temperatures. we have more from divide. >> hundreds of heads of state are making their way to dubai for the annual u.n. climate summit. the expectation is we will hear about a number project ledges and initiatives over the course

of the two weeks, but the focus will be awed whether or not a unanimous agreement on how to tackle climate change is actually decided on. the top of the agenda will be assisting the global progress on the 2015 paris targets. we will wait to see on whether investment into renewables and fulfillment of climate finance pledges from the past will go far enough to build trust between developed and developing economies. an investment of $1.2 trillion is needed annually to address climate change according to the world bank. we will be hearing from another number of leaders from the global north as well as prime minister rishi sunak and french president emmanuel macron. haidi: with the start of summer australia is bracing for another

potentially destructive brush fire season, and the first el niño event from 2019 is forced to increase that risk. firefighters have new tools at their disposal including artificial intelligence. >> it went down in history as australia's black summer, a 19 week. when 24 million hectares of the country burned. the smoke circled the globe. it now the stages said set for a possible repeat. this map showing large areas of australia facing increased fire risk. bloomberg economics is forecasting property and casualty insurance costs could be well above the 10 year average of $3 billion. >> this fire season we have seen a significant drying out of the landscape following three years of above-average rainfall.

it has promoted grass growth and obviously increase in fuel, and then we have started to see really dry spring. so we are seeing an elevated risk. >> the fire service has commissioned a world first firefighting ai. athena analyzes data and social media feeds to predict the fire's next move and what is at risk. >> it takes a map of those fires and predicts what they will do over two hours, four hours, 12 hours, and it will also tell us what structures or assets will come into the right. we can have more than 100 fires burning at any time, and this is to obsess potentially making mistakes or missing something. >> the modeling is supported by data powered by a bushfire simulator after the black summer

. it fires services also added also's largest firefighting helicopter for the coming summer hoping history does not repeat but it really in case it does. haidi: plenty more to come on "bloomberg daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

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start for free at godaddy.com vonnie: you were watching "bloomberg daybreak: asia." sources have told bloomberg vietnamese and chinese officials are firming up arrangements for president xi jinping's possible visit to hanoi in december. both sides are looking at december 14 to 16th. at the chinese foreign minister is expected to discuss the matter during his visit to vietnam during thursday. xi was iced in 2017 for the apec

summit. janet yellen has reiterated the need for the u.s. to reduce its overreliance on china in key supply chains. she said the dependence makes the country more vulnerable to risks. yellen also attended recent strength and economic data that would suggest the fed could be on track to end this tightening cycle. economists join us to talk about the outlook for the chinese economy as a recovery is struggling to regain steam. this is bloomberg. ♪ (car engine revs) (engine accelerating) (texting clicks) (tires squeal) (glass shattering) (loose gravel clanking)

vonnie: -- annabelle: this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." we are half an hour into the trading session for japan and

korea, and when you look at what is happening with the gm function it is looking a little bit quiet in the session for some parts. stocks fairly steady in japan and australia, and more of the moves really coming through in korea. kospi dropping 1.2% and the korean won under pressure. we did have the korean trade today coming out of the top of the hour. exports far outpacing what economists had been predicting. still the drop in the korean won likely coming through from the firmer u.s. dollar overnight. the korean won does not trade at 20 firmer today, so a little bit of catch-up to the dollar movie. at that is playing out in the bond space, because we did see the reaction coming through in treasuries given the fed speak hearing from the likes of mary daly, williams is well indicating that fed cuts may not be on the table over the course of 20 24 at least in the first half, and that had been the trade over the course of this

week that we saw positioning indicating that there was an 80% chance of a cut by may and fully priced by june. also interesting movers to note. let's change on and take a look at those in detail. first is lg energy solution, you can see that big drop coming through from the company. what we understand is it is a reaction to lg energy negotiations it is carrying out with gm. there was local media reporting saying gm is asking lg energy solution to allocate up to 85% of the tax benefits that it receives for their joint battery ventures from the u.s. government. lg energy has responded to that but says no decision has been made. seven and i holdings is the other went to note, because the companies issued a share buyback of up to ¥110 billion and they will be splitting the stock.

we are seeing japanese companies looking to unlock further value for shareholders. the company as well is acquiring the 711 australia, so that is another deal they are pursuing in order to create further growth for the company given the convenience store market in japan is looking pretty saturated. vonnie: let's stay with japan. manufacturing pmi the final reading coming in it 48.3 after the previous month's reading of 48.1, still in contract and territory. south korea tipped into expansion, but barely with the pmi manufacturing reading coming in at 50 on the nose. it better than the prior reading of 49 .8, and across southeast asia manufacturing had been in contraction in places like malaysia and thailand, still in contraction but we are seeing an

improvement. taiwan also seeing improvement, the s&p global taiwan pmi coming in it 48.3 and november of from 87.6, so quite a substantial improvement from taiwan with the caveat that we are well into contraction territory. haidi: instar contract to try to help us with this latest pmi readings this week which undershot a lobar that we have been setting for economic recovery, but our next guest says policymakers there are using the downturn to deflate bubbles and raise productivity. in contrast, the u.s. is doing the opposite. an independent economist joins us now. always happy to have you particularly when you have these great theses when it comes on

what china is doing. you think leadership is taking advantage of a painful structural adjustment in the economy to be able to deflate these bubbles and make the changes that have been a long time coming? >> i think so. i think the chinese leadership to recognize the property bubble has to be deflated, and the chinese economy as to get over that, so short-term pain is ok. part of the economy is holding up. it is still growing. there are other hotspots. that will give you the confidence to go through the process. the key is not to revive the shadow banking system. recent data has created these huge bubbles in the shadow banking system and its deflating is painful. it will last for a few more years to come.

haidi: are you seeing productivity growth trying to take up some slack being left across traditional growth sectors, and how much of that is down to whether beijing can revive confidence in the private sector, which is been through a tough few years? >> i think first on the private sector, the private sector is suffering because the property market touches so many people, but we need to keep in mind that the property market is not a productivity engine. it reflects credit growth, and it is not so important for the economy in the long run, so i would say the suffering in the private sector is not as important as people think. far more important is china going up in the value chain. that is also driven by private companies, just different kinds

of private companies. we see that in the automobile sector breaking out. at the chinese automobile sector is reaching a commanding high of the market. that is really important. it is a very big market. if china can really become the leading producers, i think that the chinese economic future looks pretty good. on the other is china a plus because drive for independence in the semi conductor value chain making a lot of progress. i think that within five years showing will become independent, so the semi conductor, automobile, and we are also seeing solar and renewable overall growing rapidly, so these sectors can pick the chinese economy up, and we have got very good quality. it would be different from property and shadow banking. we will have growth, and healthier growth.

haidi: you mentioned though the tentacles of the property sector are so widespread when it comes to how it impacts households, dozens of different sectors. when it comes to households is they are a worthwhile argument they should be doing something like direct payments to try to support confidence while this painful adjustment happens? >> well, i think by global standards the chinese government has been stingy and not giving up anything during the pandemic, but i do not think it is important to give money to the people, handouts, because chinese people do save money, and they have savings, so i am not sure a handout will have an immediate impact on the economy, but we see households are spending a lot on domestic tourism. where there is some value, the spending will be there.

far more important is to look at the local government situation. we have three crises happening at the same time. property, shadow banking, and local government finance. local government finances apiece the central government should focus on. the way out is not to hand money to local governments and let them keep going like before, because they spend too much. they should have never existed, so the key is to shrink local governments to fit their revenue to their expenditures, so that is much more important political process and it will lay the foundation for healthier growth in the future. what the government should do now is not worried too much about growth. the key is to lay the foundation for a healthier economy in the

future. vonnie: andy, i am curious as to whether you think there are comparisons to be made with the financial crisis having perhaps been exacerbated by if not caused by some of the policies had of the united states, and if that might be coloring your thinking, because as we all know sometimes it is different. >> the key is that there are in the last 20 years the market and economists are used to this growth is always good, so whenever growth is down we should revive it with whatever means possible. that is very wrong. that is very wrong. recession happens for a good reason. the economy needs to flush out inefficient players from time to time. if the players stay the same, then the economy will not

change. there will be no new actors coming in. look at the united states. we talk about tech, innovations, but activity has been coming down. the productivity is in a lot of trouble. it has a lot to do with the bailout in 2008. vonnie: what growth level what china have to get back to an order to put some of the 20% plus youth unemployed back to work? >> the youth unemployment rate has nothing to do with growth. it is really a mismatching problem. we have structural shortages in china that will stay with us for a long time. we do not need 70% of the youth to go to college. we need some rebalancing there. i do not leave china needs even 50%. it may be 20%, 30% is enough, so

we need structural reforms. it is just not possible. it is good to work in factories or on construction sites, and people need to change their values. haidi: andy, there are so many problems confronting policymakers in china at the moment. we have not even gotten to demographics and aging population. immigration is one of the answers. do you think domestic immigration, and part of that would be risk -- redistribution of productivity and some of which will be in the way that you were talking about in terms of education and what sorts of jobs make up the labor force. >> i think that the labor shortage is a long-term issue and low birth rate is a long-term challenge. in the short term, it is not

serious yet, but if the current situation remains for another decade or two, and obviously china will face a lot more problems like japan or korea, i think there is still time to revive the birth rate, and it will be a tough job. in terms of labor redistribution or immigration, the key is labor productivity in big cities is high and in small cities it is low. what is blocking labor mobility are not household restorations, because people can move around freely now. if issue is housing costs -- the issue is housing costs. what is going on with the property market is a good thing for labor productivity down the road, and further down the road immigration, that is a possibility. try netbeans to open its doors

to the labor market in southeast asia. the average age is 29 years like china 20 years ago. china is now at 38, so china is older, so there is a possibility to let people in southeast asia coming to china, so there are multiple policy options out there. china is a big country. a lot of challenges. there are so many problems that have accumulated because the government focuses on growth, renting money. at the same time, they do look overwhelming, but innovation has to come down. do not panic. do not print the money. find technical, sustainable solutions. do not try to cover problems up with the money. vonnie: always wonderful to get your thoughts and your analysis. thank you so much for joining us, andy xie.

bloomberg users can interact with the charts shown using gtv. browse recent charts to catch up on key analysis and save charts for future reference. this is bloomberg. ♪ they told me there's no electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir de esta viviendo una vida como la que estamos viviendo ahora. es electricidad aquí es salud. get help reaching your goals with j.p. morgan wealth plan, a digital money coach in the chase mobile® app. use it to set and track your goals, big and small... and see how changes you make today...

could help put them within reach. from your first big move to retiring poolside - and the other goals along the way. wealth plan can help get you there. ♪ j.p. morgan wealth management. haidi: the biden administration

has forced saudi aramco venture capital firm to sell the chair and the silicon valley ai chip shut up backed by openai co-founder sam altman. let's get more with our reporter jane. why is the biden administration forcing saudi aramco to get out of the startup? >> initially it seemed like it would be this one company, and that was puzzling to me, but in the last week bloomberg reported that the biden administration is getting increasingly concerned about not just saudi funds, but the various middle eastern wealth funds and their connections to china, so this is the u.s.-china ship -- chip war and tech war playing out.

it looks like an ai chip company that tries to bring processing into the memory to reduce power usage when you train ai models use ai models on the edge, but it is all part of the u.s.-china tech war that is expanding. vonnie: explain a little bit more of what you were just saying. what is it about this particular chip company that makes them special? >> well, with the advent of chatgpt and these large ai models, what has come to the forefront of a lot of people's concern is how much power it takes to train these models. in some cases analysts have said

chatgpt takes an entire month of an entire data center to change, and that requires a lot of power, and the power is needed for actually transferring data from the memory part of the chapter where the processing happens. it is almost like if you were cooking in your kitchen and you were going to bring in all of these ingredients, a lot of your energy is spent walking over and bringing the flour and sugar and eggs, and that is a similar thing going on in these ai chips, so other so-called memory compute chips tried to bring processing into the area where the memory is, so where the data sets to reduce data transfer, and doing that it can be much more energy-efficient, but the technology is still really in the early stages, but as we all see ai is a big space, and going

forward it will be incredibly important not just for our daily lives, but national security, and that is likely why the biden administration has taken the steps to ask that saudi aramco's venture capital fund divest. vonnie: exactly, this startup backed by sam altman. thank you so much for joining us. plenty more to come on "bloomberg daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪ is made for sam who makes, everyday products, designed smarter. genius! like 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more, so sam can make smart ideas, a brilliant reality! chase for business. make more of what's yours.

vonnie: overseas investors have sold chinese equities for a fourth straight month in november, working its longest selling streak as concerns over its economy and economic recovery linger. let's get a preview of the market open in the mainland and hong kong with charlotte yang. we got pmi data, we will get inflation pmi dated later on. does this streak continue? >> we are looking at the november for investors, chinese stocks on a net basis for the first four consecutive months, the longest telling trick on the record, and that should suit despite incremental improvements

on the geopolitical side, sentiments with regard to china are very weak. we saw soft pmi data, manufacturing as well as services data, and also property sales remained weak, so today the sentiment might be a little bit fragile, and also we are watching alibaba. the company has just given away its position as the most valuable chinese e-commerce company and just had a downgrade from morgan stanley cutting the stock to equal weight, and the first cut was last july. recovery for the company as well as its decisions to close this jane off, which brings uncertainty with this evaluation rerating. haidi: charlotte yang there with

us. one market a lot of analysts are still bullish on despite recent disappointing performance in the economic slowdown is the market for luxury goods and lifestyle luxury goods and hong kong, and that is a gateway to the greater china market as well. we saw celebrities, a listers from mainland china flocking to the lvmh louis vuitton fashion show. we got great video of the glamour and glitz featuring fans and stars there as well. the first ever fashion show in hong kong as the broader lvmh group is seeking to boost their investments in this key market. we saw an 11% rate of growth in the third quarter excluding japan.

that was seen as a disappointment. a lot of that weakness coming from mainland china, but the country is viewed as being a robust one for luxury in the years to come. we saw a department store opening a new members club in shanghai. at the first outside of the u.k., so still a lot of money and a lot of big bets going toward this market. vonnie: lvmh making clear they are not abandoning the market even though you know plenty of luxury brands have a difficult quarter's. the latest just to report disappointing earnings in europe as well as in asia, and earlier this week hsbc cut its price targets for the luxury sector. i have to comment on the theme, the naval inspired sets and amash -- homage to hawaii. 50 ukuleles serenading everyone

as they got to their seats. haidi: it is key for the city as well. it has been a tough few years for hong kong on the back of protest, political unrest, covid measures that looked at all for the rest of the world for so long, but it is making a comeback. in the latest unit of surveys it is still in the top five when it comes to the world's most expensive cities. it singapore near the top of that list as we get ex-pats flocking to singapore. zurich is still on the top of that list as well. that is it for "bloomberg daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> good morning and happy friday. happy de